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Leading Off:

NY-09: Gotta say I like this. Democratic Assemblyman Rory Lancman is already hammering just-sworn-in Rep. Bob Turner, over his vote to prohibit the NLRB from blocking Boeing from relocating a factory to North Carolina in retaliation for workers in Washington going on strike. As Colin Campbell says, Lancman almost certainly would have been a better candidate than David Weprin, and he could be eager to run against Turner if for this district doesn't get blasted to smithereens.

Senate:

CA-Sen (PDF): Sen. Dianne Feinstein just recorded her lowest-ever job approvals in the newest Field poll, which has been faithfully testing her numbers non-stop since she first took office — all the way back in 1993. Feinstein scores a 41-39 approval rating, down sharply from 46-31 in June. What's more, her re-elects are underwater at 41-44; a year out from her prior re-election campaign in 2006, she stood at 52-38.

Fortunately for Feinstein, Republican fortunes in California have been absolutely abysmal for quite some time, even during last year's red tide, and she doesn't have a challenger yet. The San Francisco Chronicle reports, though, that Michael Reagan, son of the former president and currently a conservative talk radio host, is considering a bid. Weirdly, in an email responding to the paper asking him about whether he was thinking about it, Reagan said: "Yes, but can't talk about it now."

CT-Sen: Quinnipiac released a lengthy poll testing the Democratic and Republican primaries, as well has four general election matchups, for the open-seat Connecticut Senate race. Click the link for all the numbers at Daily Kos Elections.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: James Pindell (behind paywall) suggests a few more names who might be thinking about getting into the gubernatorial race, now that John Lynch has announced his retirement. (We mentioned several here.) On the GOP side:

• John Lyons, state Board of Education Chair

• Bill Binnie, 2010 Senate candidate

• John Stephen, 2010 GOP gubernatorial nominee

Notably, he leaves John "Baby" Sununu off his list. (We had him in our initial roundup.) He also has some more Democrats:

• John Kacavas, U.S. Attorney

• Jackie Cilley, former state Senator

• Mark Fernald, 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee

Meanwhile, state Sen. (and ex-Rep.) Jeb Bradley will not seek the GOP nomination for the open gubernatorial seat, which is good news for Democrats, since Bradley's supposedly the "reasonable one." That really leaves the major nutcases left as the major contenders for the Republican crown, and while I know we need to be careful what we wish for, Sharron Angle and Christine O'Donnell are living proof that teh crazy can be a big boon for our side.

UT-Gov: While "tea party leader" is almost always synonymous with "Some Dude," I'm not ready to write off David Kirkham. The Republican businessman, who is weighing a primary challenge to Sen. Orrin Hatch, now says he's also thinking about taking on Gov. Gary Herbert instead. Whichever way he goes, an upset is certainly possible. Utah's unusual convention system gives insurgent conservatives a chance even if they lack a prominent public profile. Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, the two men who faced off in last year's senate primary, both out-performed incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett among convention-goers, and they were simply known as "attorney" and "businessman" respectively.

House:

CA-36: Erica Felci at The Desert Sun has an interesting piece on a possible Democratic primary battle brewing in the new 36th CD, where Assemblyman Manuel Pérez and physician Raul Ruiz are both interested in taking on GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack. Local Democratic leaders had hopes of uniting around a single candidate, but that may not happen now.

KS-04: Even before Mike Pompeo won the GOP nomination when Kansas' 4th CD opened up last year, I figured for sure this guy would get primaried. The hatred his rival candidates felt for him was so palpable I could almost feel it through my computer screen. After he won the primary, the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers all held back on endorsing him. One, Wink Hartman, even went so far as seriously considering a third-party bid. But now it looks like Pompeo dodged at least one bullet: state Sen. Jean Schodorf, the runner-up, just said she'd seek re-election, which means no primary run for her. Still, I wonder what Hartman's up to.

MI-02: Anti-Sharia crusader Dave Agema previously said he'd decide on a primary challenge to freshman GOPer Bill Huizenga in October. Now, in talking to Shira Toeplitz, the state Rep. says he's taking a poll and has moved his timeframe back to November.

OH-03: This article was actually published before the new map came out, but it suggests two other possible Democratic names for the new Columbus-centric 3rd CD: former SoS Jennifer Brunner and 2010 OH-12 candidate Paula Brooks, both of whom have also been mentioned a bunch in comments here.

TX-14: State Rep. Randy Weber followed through on his promise to announce his plans this week, and he will indeed be joining the GOP field to replace retiring Rep. Ron Paul. I believe that makes him the third Republican in the race, but a whole host of others are still considering.

Redistricting Roundup:

CA Redistricting: It sounds like Republican efforts to overturn the new congressional map at the ballot box are getting crushed under a truckload of cat fud. As we mentioned the other day, while quite a few GOPers are deeply unhappy over the redrawn lines, a roughly equal number are rather pleased. Thus it seems that things have ground to a halt. Darrell Issa, one of those in the "sitting pretty" camp, says "My understanding is that there is not a signature gathering."

OH Redistricting: Unsurprisingly, the new Republican-drawn congressional map sailed through the GOP-held state House and now goes before the Senate. Distressingly, a handful of Democrats violated the #1 rule of redistricting, which is never vote for the other side's gerrymander. Three African-American Dems from Cleveland all voted in favor; Sandra Williams, the head of the Legislative Black Caucus, specifically cited her support for the majority-minority Cleveland-to-Akron 11th CD — even though she called the rest of the map "horrible."

While you're busy groaning at that bit of illogic, consider this much more welcome news:

"I am here today to tell you that we are prepared to use every tool at our disposal to fight this unfair, anti-voter congressional map," [state Democratic Party Chairman Chris] Redfern said. "We are weighing our options for a legal challenge and a referendum campaign."

As you may know, legislation in Ohio is subject to a "people's veto," if enough signatures can be gathered to place a law on the ballot for a referendum. This is exactly what's happening right now with the anti-collective bargaining bill called SB5 and, as Redfern says, could very well happen with the new redistricting plan. The problem, as I see it, is that the GOP could just draw a new, equally bad map if this one got overturned, so perhaps a ballot measure proposing an independent redistricting commission would have a more permanent effect. (Note: This was unsuccessfully tried in 2005 as part of a package of measures called Reform Ohio Now.)

TX Redistricting: I'm linking this one for the lulz. If the first graf of this article hadn't told you that John Alford was an expert witness for the state of Texas (i.e., the defendants) in the big San Antonio redistricting lawsuit, you'd have thought for sure he was working for the plaintiffs. Under questioning by the three-judge panel hearing the case, Alford made a series of admissions that undermine a lot of GOP arguments about the fairness and legality of their maps. Not sure how many Republican politicos are gonna hire this guy again, that's for sure.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  TX:And that's why they call it an Alford Plea! n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    The Rent Is Too Damn High Party feels that if you want to marry a shoe, I'll marry you. --Jimmy McMillan

    by Rich in PA on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 05:40:07 AM PDT

  •  On GOpers already playing the "class warfare" card (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass, LordMike, MichaelNY

    on the Buffet plan, IF Obama and Democrats stick to the concept of "tax fairness" it could be a winning strategey. Just have charts showing relative REAL tax rates by brackets and careers (say $25,000-50,000,
    50,000-100,000, 100,000=250,000, 250,000-1,000,000, 1,000,000 +. Even teabaggers might be taken aback.

    •  And, there's little understanding here (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Caped Composer, TofG

      Just looking at "earnings" from salaries and bonuses isn't even half the picture.  Our government is losing just so much "income" because of the loopholes so encumbered in our tax system.  And, many different types of income for the wealthy is taxed in many different ways at many different rates.  

      All of that has to be considered.  All of that has to be changed and be made more equitable.  Otherwise, just looking at one source or just a small portion of sources won't change things much.  The wealthy have many resources they can call upon to come up with ways to "hide" income and to keep much of their accumulated wealth from being taxed as they accumulate it.  

      It's going to take a very bold, beholden-to-none approach here...otherwise, it's all going to be just good political mumbo-jumbo that sounds good but accomplishes very little.

      - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

      by r2did2 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:15:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Like I indicated in the thread above this, (0+ / 0-)

      I'm starting to think this is purely political. I mean, I have no doubt that he would sign such a new bracket into law if it was passed, but I would be surprised if he thinks it has much chance of passing.

      I don't want to get too much into policy here, but I happen to think the best tax plan from a policy stand point and from a political stand point is a progressive consumption tax, perhaps combined with some sort of payroll tax cuts that replaced the lost revenue with uncapping the income level and/or with bigger pollution taxes. My impression is that we can shift the burden of financing the government upwards while improving the incentives for those at the bottom to save and invest. It's more of a long-term thing, but then, a tax reform package that is better for the long-term paired with some shorter-term spending, like that on infrastructure, would probably be a good thing.

      I'd LOVE LOVE LOVE for the Obama campaign to propose something like this, but I wonder when it might happen. Since I am not sure that anything might pass, perhaps they are waiting for when the campaign is in full swing.

  •  Pompeo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    Ya know, I never really understood why other Republicans in that primary held out soch malice against him. Anyone with more information care to fill me in on the reasoning?

    •  I worked for the D nominee (Ra Goyle) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, David Nir, jncca

      Everyone HATED Pompeo with a passion, Schodorf's daughter who was also her CM came to work for us after the primary. Her mom never endorsed us (which hurt a lot), but Hartman definitely could have taken a good amount of the vote had he run 3rd party and it might have meant a loss by single digits for us instead of by 23 points.

      Pompeo's just a really slimy guy, he didn't have any problem playing the race card and an ad played by Pompeo supporters that basically called out a hit for Schodorf (time to go hunting for RINOs).

    •  he's an asshole (0+ / 0-)

      that's really what it seems to boil down to.

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 01:36:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    With a divided Republican front, it seems to me unlikely that the it will face serious challenges. And that is taking into consideration with California's fetish with constitutional amendments.

  •  New Hampshire (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    Is it just me, or is our bench in New Hampshire seriously lacking?

    •  Not just you (0+ / 0-)

      New Hampshire was one of many states where the democratic party was basically obliterated in 2010. New Hampshire will be red for a very long time.

      Maine is pretty much in the same boat.

      •  Really? (5+ / 0-)

        You base this pronouncement on what? We have had three special elections since the mid-terms. So far we have won by big, big margins 2 of the three and the third was lost to a pro-union, very moderate Republican. We have a fourth tomorrow and the Democratic candidate looks very, very strong.

        The anger at what the Republicans have done since taking their seats is wide spread.

        Finally, a lot of the Republicans that swept in in '10 are not really Republicans they are free staters, (libertarians on crack)

        Republicans 2012 . . . Keeping millions out of work to put one man out of a job.

        by jsfox on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:12:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I (8+ / 0-)

        think someone had an awful big glass of pessimism this morning. NH was an absolute whipeout in 2010 I'll give you that. However even then Charlie Bass only narrowly won, and looks highly vulnerable in 2012. We have also made some gains in the state house with special elections. We will almost definitely make gains in 2012. I completely disagree about Maine. 2010 was a fluke, had Mitchell dropped out we would pretty much have a D Governor. LePage won with a small plurality and is currently heavily unpopular and will not win a second term. We also have better than even odds of getting back both house of state legislators.  

        Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

        by drhoosierdem on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:16:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  disagree with Maine (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV

        LePage was a colossal fluke, hopefully they realize it by now. He's probably THE most conservative joker in the RGA today.

        I am nervous about NH for Obama, but Bass barely won which gives me hope and I hear it's pretty much a constant now that people from Mass move to NH every year in large numbers. Is that true?

      •  No it won't. (3+ / 0-)

        We will pick up one or both Congressional seats and the legislature will be tipped back at least by some.

        'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:26:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's you:) (4+ / 0-)

      Maggie Hassen is a good candidate as is Steve Marchand former mayor of Portsmouth, NH

      The chances of Mark Fernald running again I am putting at slime to none right now. At least based on my conversations with him recently. This however is by no means engraved in stone and and his current mind set could most certainly change.

      Republicans 2012 . . . Keeping millions out of work to put one man out of a job.

      by jsfox on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:05:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You took the words right out of my mouth . . . (0+ / 0-)

        . . . regarding Marchand and Hassen.  Additionally, Gary Hirshberg (CEO of Stonyfield Farm Yogurt, a major employer in the state) has commented in the past that he's considering getting into politics. He's a strong progressive and can self-fund, so he's another good potential candidate on our bench.

        28, chick, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01.

        by The Caped Composer on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:33:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  For statewide and federal elections, or for (0+ / 0-)

      those to the legislature?

    •  It's somewhat true of both sides (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, jncca

      For structural reasons. The only statewide elected offices are Senate and governor, so there just aren't a lot of obvious "stepping stone" jobs.

      That said, I'm pretty confident we'll field good candidates in the gubernatorial race, and we are definitely fielding our best candidate in NH-02. NH-01, on the other hand, could use some work.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 11:34:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I knew NY 9 was lost, the minute (6+ / 0-)

    I heard Weprin interviewed on Brian Lehrer's show at the beginning of the campaign . He was cocky, came off as very unlikable, and had no knowledge at all of the district he was running in. In addition, he was quite inarticulate, starting every sentence with aahhhh, or umm. Turner, by contrast, on the same show, came off as much more informed, even though I did not agree with his politics. I am still convinced that this is the main reason Weprin lost, not because of Obama or the Israel issue. The Democratic machine in Queens is a disaster as run by Joe Crowley. The only reason why it does as well as it usually does, is because NYC is generally such a Democratic town. But once again, as we saw in with the Massachusetts senatorial race, local machine politics can interfere with choosing the best candidate. Unfortunately, these local problems are usually interpreted as national ones by the pundit class and the MSM.

  •  Not worried about NY redistricting (4+ / 0-)

    The GOPs hold on Weiner's former seat is as tenuous as Hochul's hold on Tom Reynolds' seat. If they crush both districts, the GOP and Democrats come out even. There are enough Democrats in Rochester and Buffalo to swallow the redness of the exurbia between them.

    There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

    by upstate NY on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 06:50:12 AM PDT

    •  I think you're right on this here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

      But, saying that, most of us know that politics and campaigns are all about perception.  This might not have been a big loss for New York...or even for democrats if looked at as you've put it.  The loss is in perception by the voters all across the nation and the spin that is being put on it by just so many pundits out there.  Many people are seeing that loss by a democrat in New York as a "sign of the times" and because of the rhetoric and spin put on it by the MSM, questions are being raised in people's minds about how voters-at-large think about democrats overall.

      I'm not saying any of that is correct or even justified.  But, that's just me talking...just my own personal feelings.  It WAS a loss for us in more ways than just one seat in congress.

      - If you don't like gay marriage, blame straight people. They're the ones who keep having gay babies.

      by r2did2 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:22:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You mean Chris Lee's seat. (0+ / 0-)

      And the GOP does not have the upper hand they did the last time.

      'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:27:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Upper hand about what? (0+ / 0-)

        It was actually Reynold's longtime seat before interloper Lee arrived. I mentioned Reynolds to show how red the district is.

        There are two kinds of people in this world. The kind who divide the world into two kinds of people, and the kind who don't.

        by upstate NY on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 10:56:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mark Halperin is a dingbat, part 63,252 (8+ / 0-)

    On Halperin's The Page web site this morning:

    On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” Halperin says President Obama's failure to include Social Security in his deficit reduction plan is a surprising missed opportunity.

    Yup, that'll play well in an election!

    It's people like Halperin being on payroll that makes me look down with contempt on today's tradmed.  Poor journalism compounded by poor judgment is the norm.  There are exceptions, like Chuck Todd and his political team at NBC, but they are too few.  MSNBC puts people like dingbat Halperin and racist and otherwise all-around bigot Pat Buchanan on payroll.  CNN pays Erick Erickson and once gave Glenn Beck his own show.  Fox is Fox, everyone is a useless dunce there.

    The decline of the news media is a big problem.  And of course it's unreported, because the institution itself won't report critically or honestly on itself.

    This makes me glad we have the internet.  We need it for sharing information and engaging in political activity to make up for the tradmed's deep failure.

    It's because of the above that I give more money than ever before to candidates and parties, and try to volunteer more.  That's the best vehicle to cut through the clutter of media noisemaking.

    43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 06:50:43 AM PDT

    •  Buchanan (0+ / 0-)

      I've actually grown to like listening to Pat buchannan, not for what he says but how he explains it.  His logic, if not exactly his beliefs, are carried by a huge portion of the GOP.  Listening to him helps you understand how the GOP thinks, which isn't always found in the Beck's and Erickson's of the world.

      He also seems to be willing to call a spade a spade, which it seems some other people won't.

      •  Your last sentence (7+ / 0-)

        is particularly inapt when talking about an unreconstructed racist.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:14:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Beck & Erickson are "how the GOP thinks" (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

        Republicans don't think straight.  They are a jumbled mess.  The D.C. GOP electeds are pretty good at gamesmanship and the spin war, but Buchanan isn't part of that and knows nothing of it.  Otherwise, the jumbled mess that are Beck, Erickson, et al. are a better reflection of today's GOP than Buchanan.  But they are all racists.  The only difference is that Buchanan also is anti-semitic.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:04:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Buchanan is an all-purpose religious bigot (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

             not just an anti-semite.  He doesn't like Islam and he also has disparaged my (non)-religious peeps--atheists and agnostics.

              I've often wondered if he is even more backward thinking than President Buchanan, whose term ended 150 years ago. (James Buchanan was one of the forgettable ones before Lincoln.)

          Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 53, new CA-30

          by Zack from the SFV on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 12:17:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i'd compare him to woodrow wilson (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

            who was in the KKK.

            if the KKK were socially acceptable to be a part of, buchanan would certainly be in it

            18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 01:39:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wilson was in the KKK? (0+ / 0-)

              I know that Wilson had poor connections with the black community (one example is when he viewed "Birth of a Nation" at the WH), but I had no idea it was this bad.

              'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

              by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 01:43:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  now that i think about (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                it harding might have been the one in the KKK

                regardless, both wilson and harding were supporters of the organization

                18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 03:57:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  wilson's racism (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY
                  Wilson took his southern outlooks and feelings towards race with him to the White House. Almost upon taking office, he fired most of the African Americans who held posts within the federal government, and segregated the Navy, which until then had been desegregated. Many of the newly segregated parts of Wilson’s federal government would remain so, clear into the 1950s.

                  http://www.suite101.com/...

                  18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 04:01:36 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  He's grandfatherly. (0+ / 0-)

        He's that Archie Bunker-style grandpa you can listen to whether you agree with him or not.  Although he certainly should not be on TV.

        'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:07:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Missed opportunity? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      The only missed opportunity is to not raise the FICA cap.

      'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

      by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:10:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup, which of course the media opposes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Zack from the SFV

        The fundamental problem with the political media's "journalism" in reporting on entitlement issues is that they personally don't think they'll ever need Medicare, social security, or anything else.  So they personally favor slashing those programs.  That's really what it's all about.  But they refuse to admit, and perhaps are completely self-aware, that their personal affluence plays a role in how they perceive entitlements and how they in turn report on the subject.

        It's a major flaw.

        And it goes to the heart of how they, along with the Politifact dingbats and even Columbia Journalism Review, refuse to concede the Ryan plan abolishes Medicare, which it clearly does.  They tip their hand on their very own institutional bias.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:29:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very odd that they think that, if true (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV

          You have to be a millionaire several times over to be able to comfortably pay cash for real medical care in America.

          I know some journalists fit that description, but most don't.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:37:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Journalists who get exposure fit that description (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            andgarden, Zack from the SFV

            The people who get on TV and are most prominent online and in print are well-off enough that they don't expect to need those government programs.  They'll qualify for their fair share of benefits, but don't think they'll need them.

            Some of them are certainly wrong, and will find they need the help after all.

            But a lot of them probably will retire with full health benefits as part of the retirement package, in addition to nice retirement pay and whatnot.  They don't necessarily pay out-of-pocket per se.

            "Most" journalists, you are correct, aren't affluent.  But most journalists are not driving the debate.  The elite journalists drive media coverage of everything.

            It makes perfect sense that the people who aren't horrified by the Ryan plan and other similar social Darwinistic ideas are people who don't think they'll need the help.  If you think you might really need that help, you don't want anyone to touch it.  And that's most people.  But you wouldn't know that from media coverage.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 10:16:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  they're also operating in a DC bubble (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, Zack from the SFV

              which is nearly entirely disconnected from the reality most Americans live.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 10:38:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  For a long time, I've thought the best thing (0+ / 0-)

                Obama could do to draw attention to the gravity of the situation is to invite reporters and other media types to come with on a tour of distressed areas. Let them walk through downtown Detroit and then act as if everything is peachy.

                •  I don't think that's helpful (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, James Allen, askew

                  Reporters won't respond favorably to that.  They think what they think and cynically reject whatever elected officials say.

                  It's part of being in their bubble that they're uninterested in what's going on outside their bubble.

                  43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 11:24:09 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Well, that's probably true (0+ / 0-)

            if you are paying out of pocket for everything. I don't think anyone expects everyone to do that. Most of the people that talk about HSA/MSA-stye plans say that people will need catastrophic coverage and that the accounts are for regular check ups and other smaller things. Of course, is that there will always be some people who can't afford this, for whatever reason. We need to make a decision about how to approach it. The problem for us is that we are consistently fighting two different battles between those who don't want to do it at all and those who want to do it in a very different way from us, and this makes the actual politics very, very difficult.

      •  There's a really, truly bizarre strain of thought (0+ / 0-)

        that indicates that solving our fiscal problems in the future is heavily dependent on fixing Social Security. In reality, the fixes are fairly easily, from a policy stand point; we just need to make a decision. It's quite different from health care.

  •  NH Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Lamontagne is in.
    http://www.wmur.com/...

    Hoosierdem's progressive candidate of the week: Alison Lundergan Grimes, candidate for Secretary of State of Kentucky. Yes, a Progressive in KENTUCKY! Learn more at. http://alison2011.com/

    by drhoosierdem on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:19:33 AM PDT

    •  We'll see (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bharat, itskevin

      if this campaign lasts longer than his presidential campaign did.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), working in MA-08 for the summer, hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:43:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It will (0+ / 0-)

        With a divided right flank, he should be able to cruise to the nomination. And waiting in the general election is arguably the weakest opponent available. This isn't like 08 where he was just another fish in the pond looking to go up against Obama's billion-dollar campaign machine. He is a much bigger force in Wisconsin that he was nationally.

        •  At least (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, itskevin

          We can finally test how well a somewhat-faded, once-popular governor does in a Senate race, since so often they're rumored to enter a race (probably by bored pundits with no particular info) but mostly never do.  Pataki, Brad Henry, Sebelius, Napolitano, Lingle, Ridge (as bjssp joked the other day), Danforth in the reverse scenario, Kean Sr., Rell...

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:01:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I seriously doubt he cruises to anything (5+ / 0-)

          He could well be the nominee but he is set for a tough challenge no matter how big the field happens to be. Indeed, the more candidates the more incoming he has to deal with.

          “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

          by conspiracy on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:23:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think it depends (0+ / 0-)

            on the strength of the candidates among the GOP primary electorate and on the not-unrelated ideological split in that electorate.  If there's a lot of the electorate open to Thompson and the other candidates are both/all strong, then he'd be in a good position.  If he has a smaller chunk to start with, and/or one of the other candidates is much stronger than the others, then the mere fact of a divided field won't help him.  That's why I'd like to see some GOP primary voter polling--maybe not of head-to-head match-ups, but just of favorability and some policy/self-identified ideology questions.  It's easy to make assumptions about WI GOP voters, but who really knows?

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:34:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Weakest? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          And Thompson's star has faded.  He is old and rusty.

          'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:28:47 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Cruise to the nomination? Surely you jest. (3+ / 0-)

          The far-right will fund Fitzgerald like a mofo through this.

          'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

          by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:29:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agree, it's not Thompson vs. the field (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, jncca, itskevin

            I think there's been enough polling to establish that Thompson is not an 800-lb. gorilla, not even close.  He's just not that strong.

            He certainly could end up winning the nomination, even in a walk.  Candidates and campaigns matter, and for all we know the others will prove to be poor candidates and run poor campaigns...that's certainly plausible.

            But if at least one of the others is a strong candidate and runs a strong campaign, Tommy will have the fight of his life on his hands in the primary, even in a divided field.

            43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:11:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It's going to be an interesting primary, to be sure. I don't think Mark Neumann is a particularly strong candidate. He's lost statewide a couple of times (once in a GOP primary) and so he's hardly a 'fresh face'. Of course, anything can happen and Thompson seems to be number one on the hit list of the Club for Shrinkage, but I think what will save him is Neumann's weakness. And if he wins the primary, I have to think he's got the advantage in the general.

      I am Zornorph; the one who comes by night to the neighbor's yard.

      by Zornorph on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:51:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It will also be a good test (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer

        of the "movement conservatives have a stranglehold on Republican Senate nominations"* theory.

        Of course, it's possible that the "party decides" a la a J. Bernstein post, and one of Fitzgerald or Neumann will basically fade out so Thompson doesn't face a "divided field".  If Neumann really is seen as weak, maybe it'll be him, and the primary will be de facto Fitzgerald/Thompson.  But I think that's asking a lot of party deciding--have there been any primary polls?  Neumann could easily have lost to Feingold and Walker while still having a positive image among GOP primary voters.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:17:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  i just realized (5+ / 0-)

      if he wins the nomination, it'll be tommy versus tammy.

  •  WA-GOV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    McKenna starts with a 7 point lead: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/...

    •  McKenna (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca

      He is as strong of a recruit as any this cycle. Not just in Washington, but anywhere. If any. republican can win that race, its him

    •  Last SUSA poll said otherwise (5+ / 0-)

      SUSA polled this twice, the first time had McKenna up similar to this poll, but the second time had Inslee up.

      I think the totality of polling so far tells us it's a close race with lots of undecideds.  Best the GOP can ever hope for in this state.  I think still a tough row to hoe for the Republicans, Washington voters don't mind voting for Democrats no longer how long it's been since a GOPer won.

      43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:13:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-26: Speculation about Gallegly (3+ / 0-)

    Some think that he'll run again, but whatever he does, the county Democratic Party is ready to run hard for this seat, the chair said this

    "Regardless of what he decides," Carter said, "he's going to retire."

    Read more: http://www.vcstar.com/...
    - vcstar.com

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:08:17 AM PDT

  •  MA-SEN (13+ / 0-)

    Tweets from PPP:
    Scott Brown's approval with Obama voters in June: 35/48. Brown's approval with Obama voters now: 27/62. It's going to be a race.

    In June Elizabeth Warren's favorability was 21/17. Now it's 40/22. Looks like a successful launch.

    Not sure when the actual poll is released, but this looks like it's gonna be a good race!

  •  MN Smart Politics has a fun post (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    about which Congressional freshmen get the most national TV attention:

    http://blog.lib.umn.edu/...

    In fact, three Republicans have received more than one-third of the coverage of the entire Class of 2010.

    And two of these are the GOP's only black Americans in Congress.
    ...

    Representative [Allen] West has been interviewed or mentioned in 222 news programs since January of this year - by far the most of the freshman class.
    ...[Joe] Walsh comes in second at 148 broadcasts (12.0 percent) with South Carolina's [Tim] Scott a distant third at 45 (3.6 percent).

    Rounding out the Top 10 are Republicans Sean Duffy (WI-07) at #4 with 38 mentions, Michael Grimm (NY-13) at #5 with 27, Ben Quayle (AZ-03) at #6 with 26, Kristi Noem (SD-AL) at #7 with 25, Adam Kinzinger (IL-11) at #8 with 22, Mick Mulvaney (SC-05) at #9 with 21, and Mike Kelly (PA-03) at #10 with 20.
    ...
    Democratic at-large congressman John Carney is the only freshman yet to be mentioned once on these broadcast networks.


    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:24:15 AM PDT

  •  OGGoldy (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    The Caped Composer

    I am disappointed with you thinking Thompson can just "cruise" to the nomination and that Baldwin is the "weakest" candidate.  She isn't just some "liberal from Madison"; her district also encompasses some neighboring rural counties where has been quite well-liked.  And in Wisconsin, Dems tend to do quite well in the rural areas.

    'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

    by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:32:33 AM PDT

    •  He's been highly negative about Baldwin (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoosierD42

      for a while. I won't speculate as to why.

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:34:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  instead of implying (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        twohundertseventy

        that he's homophobic, i remember him saying that kind would be a stronger GE candidate. i agreed with him.

        now that baldwin's in, we both support her wholeheartedly, from what i can tell.

        18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 01:43:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I have been called all sorts of nasty names (0+ / 0-)

          And that is here, where I mostly agree with the others politically. Veiled attacks like that one are quite mild compared to the vitriol that has found its way to my inbox.

          I want the Democrat to win. And that goes for pretty much every race, including this one. If that Democrat happens to be Baldwin, I will be rooting for her in November. But that isn't enough for some people here. Sadly.

    •  Again, I'm all for Senator Baldwin based on what (0+ / 0-)

      I know.  But I think our discussion of this a little while back raised some good reasons for concern--namely, Baldwin's considerable under-performance in 2000, possibly (check?) her last really contested race.  She squeaked by with a two-point win while Gore crushed in her district (even as it was then drawn--twohundretseventy put it at D+7 or 8) and, by my precinct-Excelling (so I could be wrong) while Dem state assembly candidates won like 59.55% of the vote in her district.  Someone said "at least she did better than Dan Seals", which is not that great.  If there were a recent candidate who won by 2 in a D+8 district in a neutral year, as twohundretseventy described that race, we'd likely all consider them a weak campaigner.

      Now, that's one data point from a long time ago, and she could easily have improved as a campaigner and/or been facing a uniquely good local opponent.  I'd love to know more about that race.  But it's the most recent info we have about how she does in a toughly contested race, unless one of her recent elections was actually seriously contested.  So it's worth remembering.  But she seems to have a good reputation these days, and I'm hoping that means she has improved.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 08:50:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disappointed? (0+ / 0-)

      I am crushed. But in all seriousness, I have laid out my reasons for saying that she will potentially be weaker than other candidates. I don't feel like rehashing that yet again. Bit rest assured that my reasoning is not ill-founded, even if it runs counter to a lot of the people in Kos Land.

      And as for your enumerated points, I shall respond in kind.

      She is. Liberal from Madison, and she is not afraid of that fact. And if she has any hope in winning, she is going to have to drum up tons of support in Dane County as said Madison Liberal. Not sure why you even brought that up though.

      The suburban counties around Dane are fairly reliably Democratic. and considering she is the Democratic incumbent every cycle, and she hasn't faced a challenger with half a pulse in over a decade, it stands to reason that she wins them. And the last time she faced a real challenger in 2000, she grossly underperforms and early lost the district as an incumbent. It would be disingenuous to suggest that counties in the immediate sphere of Madison would extrapolate to Dairy Country.

      And for your last point, Dems do fare well in rural Wisconsin....when they have NRA backing (which is pretty much every rural Democrat in the state). An avowed enemy of gun rights, like Baldwin, will not be the shoo-in with these voters that are traditionally sympathetic to Democratic ideals. It is this fact, more than anything else, that will be a massive liability in the 3rd 7th and 8th districts. Districts that Democrats really need to win in to win statewide.

      •  Yes, I see. (0+ / 0-)

        Dems should have a primary choice between a northern Wisconsin Dem (like Kagen, et al) and someone like her.  But I don't think she's the weakest by any measure.  For instance, there's Kind, who is "pro-gun", but isn't as charismatic and he also supports free trade measures.

        'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:19:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kind would win the 3rd statewide for sure (0+ / 0-)

          And he would likely win the 7th and 8th. Any Democrat will run away with the 2nd and 4th by huge margins. The last Madison Liberal that ran statewide was Feingold. He perpetually underperformed his counterpart (who was not from Madison, and not as locally liberal, yet a more reliable Democratic vote). I just do not see an electoral advantage to being from Madison as a Democrat. Just as I don't see an advantage of a Republican from Waukesha.

      •  Sorry to sandbag you. (0+ / 0-)

        I was just perplexed that you seemed so confident that Baldwin was weakest and that Thompson will cruise to a primary victory.

        'The weak can never forgive. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.' -Mohandas K. Gandhi

        by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 09:26:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  KS-4 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Schodorf is a moderate Republican.  Her chances vs. Pompeo would probably be greater if she switched parties, unless there were multiple challengers.  I don't think a switch is likely.

    Her early filing is related to a tea party etc effort to defeat moderate Republican state senators to give Brownback clear sailing for his radical programs, including eliminating corporate and personal income taxes, more antiabortion and so forth

  •  Quincy, MA is just south of Boston. (0+ / 0-)

    In the local paper, The Patriot Ledger, there is a daily poll.  Today's is who would you vote for the Democratic Senate nomination.  There are about 8 people vying for the spot.  Elizabeth Warren got 50% of the vote.  The next highest was Setti Warren, mayor or former mayor of Newton, which is just west of Boston.  He got a whopping 14%.  These polls usually have about 300 or 400 votes every day.  If this is a harbinger, Elizabeth Warren is in darn good shape.

    Character is who you are when no one is watching.

    by incognita on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 10:01:50 AM PDT

  •  Feinstein gest the moderate republican vote in CA (0+ / 0-)

    Feinstein will not lose her Senate seat unless the republicans put forth a moderate candidate bacause Feinstein already getsd the moderate republican/independent votes in CA. Th right has had a strangle hold on the R party in Ca since the 90s, so their chances of getting any candidate to beat any Democrat is dismal.

  •  CA-Sen Fienstein should retire (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Knarfc
    Feinstein scores a 41-39 approval rating, down sharply from 46-31 in June. What's more, her re-elects are underwater at 41-44

    Now would be a good time to put someone new into that Senate seat. Someone that WE could count on to support progressive causes.

    PLEASE Dianne, take a break. Give US a break. You lost your campaign funds nest egg to a scammer. I know you have enough of your own money to make up, but I think you deserve to accept the glory and retire.

    Help! The GOP is NUTS (& the Dems need some!)

    by Tuba Les on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 12:52:42 PM PDT

    •  trying to imply someone (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      with meh approval ratings in a democratic state is vulnerable is completely false.

      i get that you want someone more progressive (i'd like that too) but don't try and use data to suggest vulnerability.

      it's ludicrous.

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 01:45:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What is going on in the Dem (0+ / 0-)

    Senate race in California? Is Feinstein running? If so are there any challengers?

    H'mm. I'm not terribly into this, anymore.

    by Knarfc on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:34:09 PM PDT

    •  As of now Diane Feinstein is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      running. In all likelihood that won't change. I am not aware of any Republicans who have announced, but Michael Reagan and Orly Taitz have expressed interest. This is one of those races in which you shouldn't worry. Even if a moderate Republican some how made it to the general, they would probably loose.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 at 07:43:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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