Last time, I did a diary depicting a relatively fair map for the Kentucky State Senate. Then, I went and drew a State Senate map that would favor Democrats. It was relatively easy to do as I merely had to pack deeply Republican counties, crack Louisville more, and crack Lexington in two. Now I shall post what I came up with, under the theme of Kentucky's state slogan.
More below the fold.
In this diary, I shall not list incumbents and pair them to a district based on where they live unless I feel I have to. This map scrambles the old lines quite a bit so that it would be a real pain finding where each Senator could run. You can simply see my previous diary to know where each Senator resides. I also took quite a bit of advice from SouthernINDem, a maven of Kentucky politics. He told me how in Kentucky, avoiding county-splitting is of equal importance to reaching ideal population deviation, as paradoxical as it sounds. He also told me which counties can be cut and which ones absolutely cannot. My map doesn't follow those rules as closely as I'd like, but I did the best I could without exceeding 10% deviation from ideal population. Also, since my hypothetical is one where Democrats control the redistricting trifecta (and thus have free reign inside of the established boundaries), I also did some pretty devious number-swapping. In Kentucky, all odd-number seats are up for re-election in 2012 and all even-number seats are up in 2014. Therefore, I gave the Republicans whom I gave unfriendly districts odd-numbered districts.
Full Map
Let's start with Western Kentucky!
In District 1, I gave the Republican-caucusing Independent, Bob Leeper, an odd-numbered district. Democrats have always come close to beating him, but never make it. Now he has an unfriendlier district due to the addition of heavily-Democratic Hickman, Carlisle, and Fulton Counties. That may be enough to finally tip the scales against him.
District 2 becomes slightly less Dem, but is still easily within reach of any Purchase Democrat who isn't Carroll Hubbard.
District 3, 4, and 6 change little in their leans and thus all favor their incumbent Democrats.
District 5 swaps McLean for Hancock County. The incumbent Republican here is still very much on borrowed time. I also gave him an odd-numbered district to force him to run in 2012 instead of 2014.
District 7 still favors its incumbent Republican.
District 8 is Democrat Dennis Parrett's and he should be fine.
District 10 is strongly Republican as it branches into the western edge of the Republican bedrock that is south-central Kentucky.
For District 9, I placed it entirely withing Warren County (which is the most logical thing for it to do since Warren County is almost exactly at ideal State Senate district population). The Republican here will also be forced to run in 2012.
Now on to Central Kentucky!
The 18th has the incumbent Republican's home of Shelbyville. I could not get all of Shelby County in because it would exceed 10% deviation.
The 20th, 18th, and 14th are essentially Republican vote sinks.
The 15th is Alice Forgy Kerr's district. It now shares Lexington with the Dem-held 16th. Kerr's seat was sliding out from under her anyway, I just sped it up.
The 17th is Julian Carroll's and is safe for him. The 26th is also safe Dem.
The 13th is Republican-held, but swaps Taylor for Anderson County, a net improvement for Dem chances. Democrats didn't contest this in 2010, but they really should in 2012 as it contains Dem-friendly Marion and Nelson counties.
The 32nd is at the northern border of the Republican bloc. Although Madison County leans Dem, Estill and Lee Counties tilt or lean GOP. This district would favor a Republican, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for a Democrat to win here.
Next up, Northern Kentucky.
The 19th is Republican Damon Thayer's, but it is now more Dem. It no longer has southern Kenton County and now contains all of the Dem-friendly "bridge" between Boone County and Oldham County. This is another prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.
The 21st and the 22nd both favor Republicans pretty strongly.
The 23rd changes little and will have an open seat race next year, but I would rate it LEAN GOP.
The 25th is hard to figure, but I would say it would favor Republicans over Democrats since it contains GOP-friendly southern Kenton County and Lewis County, but I'm not sure.
Now for Southern and Eastern Kentucky.
The 12th, 11th, and 31st are all strongly Republican. The 28th, 29th, 27th, and 24th are all strongly Democratic.
The 30th does a bit of gymnastics to avoid the Republican counties as much as possible, but still has one of them in it. I would say this district is TOSSUP.
Finally, we have Jefferson County and Louisville.
Here, I made District 38 the Republican vote sink, taking in the Republican outer ring of Jefferson County. I then essentially baconmandered Louisville with the four other districts (less so with District 36, but that is based in majority-African American Newburg). I had Gerald Neal's district (#33) overlap largely with LaRoucheite Perry Clark to try to screw Clark over, but he may run in District 34 instead. Neal's district is still majority-African American.
That's all for Kentucky redistricting! I learned a lot about the state through my many forays into drawing maps here and it was an enriching experience. I hope you enjoyed it too.