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9:06 AM PT: IL-08: It'll be the 8th District after all for Joe Walsh, who spent much of the year jousting with fellow Republican Randy Hultgren in an inchoate fight in the 14th CD, a deliberate GOP vote sink. But late last month, word emerged that Walsh might instead seek re-election in the 8th, which, strictly speaking, is his current district. But if you've been following the Illinois redistricting saga all along, you know that the 8th was redrawn into a much bluer configuration, one that supported Barack Obama at a 63% clip.
So while Walsh gets to avoid wingnut-on-wingnut violence over in the 14th, his decision to run in the 8th means he'll face a Democratic buzz-saw in the general election. Could a Republican survive in a seat like this? It's not impossible. But combine Joe Walsh's poisonous record, and the fact that either Dem he might face—Tammy Duckworth or Raja Krishnamoorthi—will be formidable indeed, I don't see how he'll wind up serving another term. If I were him, I'd have taken my chances on Hultgren. But hey, at least we'll have some post-primary fun here next year!
9:23 AM PT: TX-27, TX-34: And while we're on the topic of Republican redistricting victims running in Democratic districts, there's a similar story emerging down in Texas. GOP freshman Blake Farenthold just saw his 27th CD get made much bluer, though his home was placed into the new (and very red) 34th District. Therefore it made sense that, almost immediately after the court-drawn map dropped, Farenthold indicated quite strongly that he'd seek re-election in the 34th instead. The problem, though, is that he currently only represents some 15% of the constituents of the new 34th, which would make it a tempting seat for much stronger Republican names to target. (Unusual, I know, to suggest that a non-incumbent might have an edge over an incumbent in a primary, but we're talking about Mr. Ducky Pajamas here.)
So now Farenthold is all of a sudden hedging, saying he might still run in the 27th. He seems to be holding out hope for further court intervention, but that already-unlikely prospect seems to be growing dimmer by the day. What's more, the filing deadline is next week, on Dec. 15. So unless there is some extraordinary intervention by Justice Scalia and the Supremes, he'll have to make up his mind very soon.
One guy who has made up his mind is Cameron County District Attorney Armando Villalobos, who finally bit the bullet and decided to launch a bid for the Democratic nomination. Villalobos had been talking about a possible run since May, back when the seat was still much swingier; under the court's map, it went from 53-46 Obama to 58-41, so that may have helped spur him into the race. He joins Nueces County Democratic Party Chairwoman Rose Meza Harrison in the Democratic field, though others may yet join, including ex-state Rep. Solomon Ortiz, Jr.
9:46 AM PT: IL-08: Whoa! I guess this explains it (via Dave Catanese):
Walsh — lured by the thought of an easier primary and the promise, according to top Illinois GOP officials who requested anonymity and influential Barrington Republican Jack Roeser, of $3.5 million in general election fundraising help from House Speaker John Boehner — will now make a bid in the recently drawn 8th District, roughly centered in Schaumburg and including Addison, Elk Grove, Hanover and Wheeling townships.
Man, you gotta read this whole piece. Does Joe Walsh really think this money will be there for him? I guess he's stupid enough to believe it, but I can't believe Boehner would be stupid enough to spend that kind of cash—or any cash—on a guy like Walsh in a district like this. And hell, Walsh might need the dough for the primary:
Yet, like Duckworth, Walsh still faces a primary battle — against DuPage Regional Superintendent of Education Darlene Ruscitti and Barrington businessman Andrew Palomo. Ruscitti, who held an Addison fundraiser on Thursday, is expected to receive the support of several members of the Illinois Republican delegation over Walsh — including Roskam, the GOP chief deputy whip and 6th District congressman, and 13th District Congresswoman Judy Biggert of Hinsdale.
Man, this is some crazy, crazy stuff.
9:54 AM PT: TX-14: Longtime SSP/DKE commenter trowaman, who has been organizing a Draft Nick Lampson campaign on Facebook, just saw Lampson at an event on Thursday evening. Based on trowaman's report, it sounds like Lampson is leaning toward a second comeback bid in the redrawn (and open) 14th CD. But we'll know for sure by next week's filing deadline.
10:02 AM PT: RI Redistricting: Rhode Island's redistricting commission says it expects to vote on which of three congressional proposals to recommend to the legislature on Dec. 19. There's been some grousing about various aspects of the maps: One plan would move Republican Brendan Doherty out of the 1st CD, where he's challenging freshman Dem David Cicilline; meanwhile, an aide to 2nd CD Dem Rep. Jim Langevin argued that some of the proposed changes are too drastic. So perhaps things might change before we get a final map.
10:09 AM PT: TX-27: A clarification of the TX-27 item above. Former state Rep. Solomon Ortiz, Jr. has decided to seek his old seat in the state House, rather than run for Congress. And his dad, Solomon Ortiz, Sr.—the guy who held this seat before getting upset last year by Farenthold—has decided not to make a comeback bid. The elder Ortiz, 74, says he is "really enjoying my life now."
10:12 AM PT: FL Redistricting: Right now, there are eight (!) competing congressional proposals floating around the Florida legislature right now. The St. Petersburg Times and the Miami Herald have helpfully put Google Maps versions of all eight plans on a single page, with the districts shaded by recent election performance in the presidential and gubernatorial races.
10:14 AM PT: MA-04: A new name has emerged in the race to replace retiring Rep. Barney Frank: Boston City Councilor Mike Ross has formed an exploratory committee, which makes him the first Democrat to take a formal step toward running.
10:19 AM PT: And while we're talking about the race, this should come as no surprise: Former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling, busy running his own video-game company in Rhode Island, says he won't run for Frank's seat. Schilling, who has long been involved in Republican politics, says: “If it was any other point in time, I would do it in a heartbeat. But it’s an elected position — it’s 365 days a year, nights, weekends. I can’t do it right now.”
11:01 AM PT: Ohio: It looks like Ohio legislators are trying to undo their ridiculous plan to have two separate primaries, one in March for the Senate race and state & local contests, and one in June for House races and the presidential election. Republicans pushed this change through because of uncertainty over the congressional map, but having finally realized how unnecessary and costly this is, they're now proposing a single primary on May 8, with a filing deadline of March 9.
11:14 AM PT: WI-Gov: Interesting. State Sen. Tim Cullen, who only began floating his name a week ago, just became the first Democrat to say he'll run against Gov. Scott Walker if there is in fact a recall election next year. That probably means we'll have a primary, since a whole host of other potential candidates (most of them with greater name recognition) are still waiting in the wings. Cullen, incidentally, is on his second tour of duty in the Senate, after a long absence. He first served from 1975 to 1987, then returned to the chamber this year. He also has a reputation for bi-partisan cooperation, which may not really be what fired-up Democratic activists are looking for in this race.
11:58 AM PT: NE-Sen: For the second time this week, GOP Gov. Dave Heineman is trying to downplay the notion that he might seek to run for Senate, which is really making me think this is all a gambit to fuck with Ben Nelson's head—something unnamed Democrats and Republicans suggested to The Hotline just a few days ago. If I'm right, this means Heineman is struggling to simultaneously spook Nelson and avoid offending the actual GOP candidates who are already in the race, which is why he keeps trying to walk back the possibility of a run while still holding the door open. It would also mean that national Republicans are worried about how their current field would fare against Nelson, if they are indeed putting Heineman up to this.
12:18 PM PT: NC-Gov: After a brief while this fall where it seemed like Dem Gov. Bev Perdue might be recovering from her long, long soujourn in the polling wilderness, she now trails Pat McCrory by a 50-40 margin. It's not a big change from the 48-39 spread last month, but it's a lot worse than September's numbers, when she managed to claw her way to just four points down, 45-41.
1:02 PM PT: CO-Sen: PPP asked some very early head-to-heads for freshman Dem Sen. Mark Udall, who is not up for re-election until 2014. He leads GOP Rep. Mike Coffman (who may well be out of a job after next year) by a 48-34 margin, and former LG (and 2010 Senate primary runner-up) Jane Norton by 50-33.
1:09 PM PT: CO-06: Even with Andrew Romanoff out, it looks like state Rep. Joe Miklosi may not have the Democratic primary to himself. Wealthy chiropractor Perry Haney already has an exploratory committee and is reportedly meeting with Democratic insiders to lay the groundwork for a possible run. Back in May, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer suggested Haney might make a go of it in the 3rd CD, but evidently he prefers the bluer confines of the 6th instead.
1:13 PM PT: Colorado: Public Policy Polling also has some interesting Colorado miscellany, too, finding rather liberal views on gay marriage and marijuana legalization. In fact, a plurality of Coloradans now support same-sex marriage, one of the only swing states where PPP has found that to be the case, leading Tom Jensen to think it's unlikely to flip back into the red column. Democrats also lead on the generic congressional ballot, 46-42, little changed from August's 45-40.
1:24 PM PT: Chicago Redisticting: This is a crazy, down-in-the-weeds redistricting story. The city of Chicago is, like countless other municipalities, in the midst of redrawing the map for its city council. While Mayor Rahm Emanuel is promising a smooth process, something very unusual will happen if no agreement is reached. Chicagoist explains: "If at least 41 aldermen do not approve a new ward map, and at least 10 aldermen propose an alternate map, Chicago voters would choose between the two next March." Amazingly enough, this is exactly what happened 20 years ago! Even nuttier is that voters didn't even get to see the dueling maps on the ballot, just lists of which aldermen supported which one. In any event, despite the referendum, the map still wound up in court—something Emanuel is apparently eager to avoid this time.
2:21 PM PT: FL-02: You may remember Nancy Argenziano, the former state Senator and lifelong Republican who recently became a Democrat and wants to run for Congress in Florida's 2nd CD. Her problem, as you'll recall, is a new state law which forbids candidates from switching parties a year before the candidate qualifying period begins, a deadline some 18 months before election day, and one which snared Argenziano. So now she's suing to have the law overturned, calling it unconstitutional.
2:32 PM PT: NY-Sen: New York state GOP chair Ed Cox sent a letter to the editor to the Syracuse Post Standard, touting Onondaga County County Executive Joanie Mahoney as a possible Senate candidate. It sounds like Cox was freelancing/spitballing, though, and what's more, Mahoney endorsed Dem Gov. Andrew Cuomo and even held a fundraiser for him, so I'm not sure how that's supposed to work.
3:05 PM PT: OR-01: Uh, wow. Jess Taylor says a GOP source tells her that the DCCC buy in the Oregon special election is now up to one million bucks. I actually really hope that isn't true: The other day, when the number was in the mid-six figures, I thought it might just be a smart preventive measure, much like how the NRCC boxed out Democrat Kate Marshall in the NV-02 special earlier this year by getting on the air and defining her early. But a million? You only spend that much this early (the election is Jan. 31) if you're spooked, and that means someone in charge is seeing some really troubling poll numbers.
This is, after all, a district that Obama won with 61% of the vote and Kerry with 55%—really at the outer edge of where Republicans can be competitive, and bluer than NV-02 was red. Even accounting for the sour economy and the unpredictability of a special, this race really ought to be no worse than Likely D, but this spending indicates it's anything but that. Now, Republicans did wind up forking out $600K in the Nevada contest, but their last buys were two weeks before election day. We're over seven weeks out in Oregon. So I'm nervous.
3:30 PM PT: TX-27: Add one more name to the Democratic pile in TX-27: Ramiro Garza, former city manager of Edinburg (pop. 77K). Charles Kuffner tells me
"City manager" is "the guy who actually has the power in a weak-mayor city," so he must have some juice. Having that on his resume for sure means he's not Some Dude. It's an appointed position, so he may not have any electoral experience, but for sure he has political experience.
3:35 PM PT: MT-Sen: The Montana GOP is running a new ad attacking Dem Sen. Jon Tester for taking money from lobbyists (by some unspecified metric, he's supposedly received more than anyone else). No word on the size of the buy, though it's apparently football-themed because Republicans plan to run it statewide during some college football playoff games featuring Montana teams. I have to admit, I actually find the production values kind of catchy, but see for yourself here or below.
4:38 PM PT: TX Redistricting: Holy hell! The Supreme Court just blocked implementation of the new court-drawn legislative and congressional maps! More at the link, where we're discussing it in a new thread.
5:23 PM PT: OR-01: Coming down from my ledge a bit, Jessica Taylor points out something I meant to add in my last update: Portland is obviously a more expensive media market than northern Nevada. In fact, the DCCC has reserved 4,150 gross ratings points while the NRCC, in the NV-02 special, bought… 4,170. And as for the D-Trip spending all this money so much earlier, well, they have the holidays to contend with, a time when it's very hard to break through to voters. What's more, early voting starts on Jan. 13. So, while I still don't think it's a good sign that we have to spend here, it may be somewhat less bad than I'd initially feared.