On last night's show, Stephen Colbert acknowledged that a recent poll placed him ahead of (or at least statistically tied with) at least one established Republican candidate (Huntsman) in the South Carolina primary.
http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/...
Stephen Colbert may or may not be running in South Carolina (I guess we'll all tune in to the Colbert Report tonight to find out).
Even if he does not formally run, however, it appears that a massive write in campaign could allocate formal delegates to him at the Republican National Convention in August.
I am not an expert on the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary, but...
Here is my understanding of South Carolina's primary process as it relates to delegate selection for the national Republican Convention
http://www.horrycountyrepublicanparty.com/...
... the South Carolina Republican Party shall conduct a statewide presidential preference primary on a date within two weeks after the New Hampshire Republican Primary or earlier if necessary to preserve South Carolina's "First in the South" status. [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - Rule 11(b)(1)]
25 of South Carolina's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in the South Carolina Presidential Primary.
14 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the state's 7 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 2 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district will receive all 2 of that district's National Convention delegates. [Rule 11(b)(4)]
11 at-large delegates are to be allocated to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide. [Rule 11(b)(6)].
In addition, 3 party leaders, the National Committeeman, the National Committeewoman, and the chairman of the South Carolina's Republican Party, will attend the convention as pledged delegates guests by virtue of their position.
Each congressional district delegate ... shall be bound during the first ballot .... However, if the candidate to which a delegate is bound falls below 30% of the vote on the first ballot, that delegate automatically is released before the second ballot [that is, bound for 2 ballots unless the candidate receives less than 30% -Ed] ... Each delegate-at-large shall be bound for the first ballot ... [South Carolina Republican Party Rules - Rule 11(b)(4), (5), and (6)]
As far as I can tell, there is no requirement that the candidate actually has to be a Republican (Colbert is an comedian, not a Republican - similar but different). Someone correct me if I missed it in the rules.
So...
If Colbert can win a single congressional district he will receive 2 delegates to the National Convention. These candidates would be bound to represent him in the Convention's first round.
Are any districts likely to lean Colbert?
Maybe.
Here is a map of South Carolina's Congressional districts:
http://www.govtrack.us/...
District 6 is a highly gerrymandered Democratic stronghold. It also contains a large population of 18-24 year olds in Berkeley, Charleston, Lee, Orangeburg and Richland counties. Parts of Columbia district, with a very large student population, are also in this district. If these populations were to turn out in large numbers, there could be unexpected (and hilarious) results.
South Carolina is also, technically, an open primary. So in theory, a VERY large number of independents could turn out. For the most part, these independents seem to be mobilizing in other states for Ron Paul. Could they be convinced to vote Colbert?
Realistically, it is unlikely that Colbert would formally run considering the unpredictable implications for his show and his network. Having delegates to the Republican National Convention, however, would provide a whole new level of comedic insight into the primary process...
1:22 PM PT: Update
I've been looking at the votes by county (but I don't have this down to a science) from 2008 and it looks like McCain won this area bringing in a total of around 35,000 votes. Colbert might be able to win, given the divided field, with just a moderate percentage of that number. Surely he has that many fans in South Carolina's 6th Congressional district.