For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. And yes, I know Republicans have the trifecta in Utah, and there's control in Nevada. This entire series is theoretical to begin with, gimme a break.
Both of these states went from 3 to 4 districts for normal redistricting, and under Doubling they would both have just received their 8th district.
Links to the adopted plans in Nevada and Utah
Previous Doubling Diaries: OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Nevada
Nevada gets 8 districts
The "Dem Average" is:
- President 2008
- All statewide races 2010 (Gov, AG, Treas, SoS)
- U.S. House races 2008
- U.S. House races 2010
1 (Blue)
VAP: 41.4 White, 18.6 Black, 30.4 Hispanic, 6.8 Asian
65.2 Obama, 63 Dem
Open; plurality white. North Las Vegas and down to Laughlin. This is where State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford (D), who is currently running for NV-04, would most likely run. Safe D
2 (Green)
VAP: 47.7 W, 9.2 B, 24.1 H, 15.9 A
62.3 Obama, 59.4 Dem
Open; plurality white. Las Vegas (including the Strip) and Paradise. Former Congresswoman Dina Titus (D), who is currently in a primary with State Sen. Ruben Kihuen for the new NV-01, would run here. And win. Safe D
3 (Purple)
VAP: 35.4 W, 8.6 B, 46.5 H, 7.1 A
68.3 Obama, 68.7 Dem
Open; plurality Hispanic. North Las Vegas and Winchester, also part of Las Vegas. As mentioned above, Sen. Ruben Kihuen is currently running for NV-01, but would run here under this map. Safe D
4 (Red)
VAP: 64.8 W, 7.7 B, 13.2 H, 11.5 A
53.1 Obama, 50.6 Dem
Open. Las Vegas and rural Clark County. Swing
5 (Yellow)
VAP: 68.1 W, 5.1 B, 13.6 H, 10.1 A
52.6 Obama, 49.3 Dem
Joe Heck (R-Henderson) lives here. Henderson dominates the district. Heck would probably do well here, it's less Democratic than even his current district. But with demographic trends, he's probably got an expiration date on his tenure. Lean R with Heck, Swing otherwise
6 (Cyan)
VAP: 64.1 W, 7.9 B, 19.9 H
51.4 Obama, 49.6 Dem
Open. Clark County, Rurals and Ranchos in Douglas County. This district is large, but 78% of the people are in Clark County. Swing
7 (Black)
VAP: 78.6 W, 13.7 H
41.1 Obama, 38.1 Dem
Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) lives here. Rurals and Carson City. Safe R
8 (Orange)
VAP: 68.9 W, 19.4 H, 6.2 A
57.3 Obama, 52.5 Dem
Open. Reno and Sparks. Likely D
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So, from a 2-1-1, to this map, which I would call a 4-1-3 (4-2-2 with Heck). Not bad!
Utah
Utah gets 8 districts as well.
1 (Blue)
VAP: 67.5 W, 21.8 H, 6.4 A
61.4 Obama
Jim Matheson (D-Salt Lake City) lives here, but he wouldn't run here, he wouldn't make it out of the convention. The Gayest City in America, Salt Lake City is incredibly liberal compared to the rest of the state (and even compared to most of the country), and could even elect a gay congresscritter. Probably not at first though. Safe D
2 (Green)
VAP: 78.1 W, 13.9 H
50.9 Obama
Open. Central Salt Lake County. A decent Dem could win here pretty easily, as long as they weren't too liberal. Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon would probably do well here. Likely D with Corroon, Lean D otherwise
3 (Purple)
VAP: 80.2 W, 12.5 H
42.5 Obama
Open. I call this district "No Democrat Left Behind", in that it grabs every blue precinct in the outstate region (they do exist!), and also goes up into the blue areas of Ogden before going into Salt Lake County. By grabbing all those blue precincts though, I had to go through some deep red territory, which ultimately resulted in this district, which would be perfect for Jim Matheson. He already represents close to 90% of the constituents, and it's better for Obama than either his current district or the one he's running for now. Safe D with Matheson, Safe R otherwise
4 (Red)
VAP: 83.4 W, 11.4 H
21.2 Obama
Open. Cities of Provo and Orem. Oof; I think this might be the reddest district I've ever drawn. Safe R
5 (Yellow)
VAP: 90.1 W, 6.2 H
22.3 Obama
Jason Chaffetz (R-Alpine) lives here. South Salt Lake County and parts of Utah County and all of Wasatch County. Very blood red, easy win for Chaffetz Safe R
6 (Cyan)
VAP: 89.1 W, 7.4 H
22.1 Obama
Open. St. George and Toole with a lot o' nothing in between. Only Bob Massie could win here for Team Blue. Safe R
7 (Black)
VAP: 87.4 W, 8.5 H
26.3 Obama
Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City) lives here. Northern Utah. This district actually gets redder than Rep. Bishop's is currently; he'd probably be more vulnerable to Republican Mormon Jesus in convention-happy Utah than he already is. But Safe R for whoever.
8 (Orange)
VAP: 87.4 W, 7.4 H
28 Obama
Open. Davis and Morgan Counties and part of Weber. Safe R
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So, from an 0-3-Matheson map to a 2-6-Matheson! My favorite part of Doubling is that Democrats do exist in states like Utah, and these maps give them representation. Nevada and Utah together make 7-8-2 (Matheson counted as a Dem)
The House of Representatives so far stands at 78-62-15.
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