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Tonight we will have primaries in two states where Mitt Romney should be favored: Arizona, which has more Mormons than most other states as a portion of its population, and Michigan, where his father was governor.

The latest polls show Romney is a strong favorite in Arizona:

ARIZONA (PPP): Romney 43, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 11

ARIZONA (We Ask America): Romney 43, Santorum 27, Gingrich 21, Paul 10

In Michigan the results are mixed

MICHIGAN (American Research Group): Santorum 36, Romney 35, Paul 15, Gingrich 8

MICHIGAN (Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White): Romney 39, Santorum 31, Gingrich 9, Paul 9

MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone): Santorum 37, Romney 35, Gingrich 9, Paul 8

MICHIGAN (PPP): Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9

MICHIGAN (Rasmussen): Romney 38, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 10

MICHIGAN (We Ask America): Romney 37, Santorum 33, Paul 18, Gingrich 13

(link)

but it looks like it'll be close either way.

Finally, we have a recall election in Michigan's 51st House District, where Republican state rep Paul Scott was recalled last November.  This is a Republican-leaning district, but Obama won it 52-46 in 2008.  Steven Losey is the Democratic candidate, Joseph Graves is the Republican candidate.  I'll have results for all of these races as they come in.

Talk amongst yourselves.

2:10 PM PT: The Washington Post has an article: 5 counties to watch in Michigan

5:22 PM PT: We're starting to get results in SE Michigan, Oakland & Wayne Counties, for example.  Right now, 42 Santorum, 35 Romney, 13 Paul, 7 Gingrich, but we're only talking about 5,000 votes.

5:25 PM PT: Results are starting to come in from Ottawa County in the west, too.  Right now 42 Santorum, 37 Romney, 11 Paul, 7 Gingrich.  Romney is pulling into narrow leads in some SE counties, Santorum dominating in Ottawa.

5:28 PM PT: Montcalm is coming in, so far Santorum leads.

Statewide with 3% reporting: 42 Santorum, 38 Romney, 11 Paul, 7 Gingrich

5:30 PM PT: Ontanagon and Marquette reporting big Santorum leads.

42 Santorum, 38 Romney, 10 Paul, 7 Gingrich with 4% reporting

5:30 PM PT: Ontonagon that is.

5:32 PM PT: Romney closing:

Santorum 15,275
Romney 15,045

4% reporting

5:34 PM PT: Narrower still with 5% in:
Santorum: 16,485
Romney: 16,392

5:36 PM PT: Romney leads in Montmorency, Cheboygan, Santorum in Alpena County

Santorum: 21,322
Romney: 20,726

5:38 PM PT: Romney leads in Roscommon and Iosco Counties

Santorum: 23,427
Romney: 22,318

back to 40-38, with 6% reporting

5:42 PM PT: Santorum leads in Berrien, Cass, Calhoun, St. Joseph Counties, Romney leads nearly 2-1 in Wayne County

Santorum 26,341
Romney 25,878

5:44 PM PT: Romney leads in Otsego County, Santorum in Livingston County

Santorum: 30,166
Romney: 30,136

8% reporting

5:46 PM PT: 9% reporting:

Santorum 34,146
Romney: 33,180

5:47 PM PT: Romney has taken a firmer lead in Oakland County, which seems to be boosting his numbers bigtime.

5:48 PM PT: Santorum rebuilding his lead with 11% in:

Santorum 40,718
Romney: 38,435

5:50 PM PT: 12% reporting:

Santorum: 42,867
Romney: 40,150

5:52 PM PT: SE coming in bigtime for Mitt:

Santorum: 46,108
Romney: 44,914

5:53 PM PT: 13% reporting

Santorum: 47,955
Romney: 46,407

5:55 PM PT: MI HD-51:

Losey 383
Graves 329

1/52 precincts reporting

5:55 PM PT: Santorum: 51,174
Romney: 49,490
14% reporting

5:57 PM PT: Santorum: 51,685
Romney: 50,259

15% reporting

5:59 PM PT: CNN appears to be backtracking

Santorum: 50,921
Romney: 49,334

14% in

6:00 PM PT: 16% reporting and its narrowed again:
Santorum: 55,967
Romney: 55,734

6:01 PM PT: Romney takes lead for first time tonight:

Romney: 62,872
Santorum: 60,889

6:03 PM PT: 19% reporting and Romney's lead is building

Romney: 69,527
Santorum: 65,429

6:04 PM PT: Romney is already the projected winner of Arizona per CNN.

6:05 PM PT: With 15% of the vote in,Lakeville Schools Millage Proposal 2 is down 37-63.  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

6:06 PM PT: 20% reporting

Romney: 81,063
Santorum: 76,248

6:09 PM PT: Romney now leads in Livingston, much of SE and NE Michigan.  Santorum leads across UP and other parts of state.

23% reporting

Romney: 97,621
Santorum: 89,040

6:10 PM PT: 24% reporting:
Romney: 100,535
Santorum: 91,686

6:12 PM PT: 25% reporting:

Romney: 103,825
Santorum: 95,830

6:13 PM PT: 26% reporting:

Romney: 110,421
Santorum: 103,570

6:15 PM PT: MI HD-51 3/52 precincts reporting

Graves 50%
Losey 45%

6:16 PM PT: 28% reporting

Romney: 116,226
Santorum: 106,988

6:18 PM PT: MI HD-51, 7/52 reporting
Graves: 51%
Losey: 44%

6:20 PM PT: 30% reporting:

Romney: 125,015
Santorum: 115,152

6:23 PM PT: 33% reporting

Romney: 133,715

Santorum: 123,449

6:24 PM PT: HD-51 9/52 precincts in
Graves 51.6%
Losey 43.5%

6:26 PM PT: 34% reporting

Romney 139,910
Santorum 128,235

6:29 PM PT: 36% reporting,

Romney 146,973
Santorum 134,217

6:33 PM PT: 38% reporting

Romney 154,767
Santorum 141,692

6:37 PM PT: 40% reporting

Romney 164,242
Santorum 152,289

6:40 PM PT: Well, at least Santorum will win more counties than Romney in Michigan, if not more votes.  That may help him in the congressional district delegate allocation.

41% reporting:

Romney: 168,699
Santorum: 157,356

6:41 PM PT: HD-51 11/52 precincts in
Graves 1,962   50.06
Losey 1,772   45.22

6:43 PM PT: 43% reporting:

Romney 177,076
Santorum 165,169

6:46 PM PT: 45% reporting and Mitt's lead now reaches to 17k votes

Romney 187,882   
Santorum 171,191

Same 41-38% margin we've had for a while, though.

6:49 PM PT: 51% reporting and Mitt expands his lead to 42-37%

Romney 211,453
Santorum 190,909

CNN projects so far that both Romney and Santorum will receive at least 3 delegates.

6:52 PM PT: 53% reporting:
Romney 220,039
Santorum 198,306

6:54 PM PT: 57% reporting
Romney 227,086
Santorum 205,795

6:57 PM PT: 59% reporting:
Romney 235,086
Santorum 212,559

6:58 PM PT: 60% reporting
Romney 239,340
Santorum 217,101

7:03 PM PT: Romney is winning two UP counties, Mackinac and Schoolcraft.

65% reporting
Romney 261,467
Santorum 233,073

7:05 PM PT: 66% reporting
Romney 266,403
Santorum 238,281

7:07 PM PT: 68% reporting
Romney 272,628
Santorum 243,193

7:08 PM PT: MI HD-51 22/52 precincts reporting

Graves 4,172   52.88
Losey 3,334   42.26

7:12 PM PT: AZ 50% reporting

Mitt: 50%
Santorum: 24%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 9%

7:13 PM PT: MI: 68% reporting

Romney 284,277
Santorum 254,353

7:16 PM PT: MI: 70% reporting

Romney 293,173
Santorum 263,141

7:19 PM PT: even as the second to last county to report comes in for Santorum, CNN calls Michigan for Romney.

7:21 PM PT: MI: 74% reporting

Romney 306,099
Santorum 276,481

7:22 PM PT: AZ: 59% reporting

Romney 49%
Santorum 25%

7:26 PM PT: MI HD-51 24/52 precincts in

Graves 4,748   53.18
Losey 3,735   41.83

7:27 PM PT: MI: 76% reporting

Romney 316,545
Santorum 285,926

7:29 PM PT: MI HD-51 25/52 precincts in
Graves 4,826   53.20
Losey 3,789   41.77

7:30 PM PT: MI: 78% reporting and it's Mitt 41-37%

Romney 324,190
Santorum 293,434

7:34 PM PT: AZ: 71% reporting

Mitt 48%
Rick 25%

Mitt's weakest counties are Coconino, Mohave, and La Paz so far.

7:34 PM PT: MI HD-51 29/52 precincts reporting

Graves 5,809   53.93
Losey 4,423   41.06

7:35 PM PT: MI: 80% reporting

Romney 332,186
Santorum 302,791

7:40 PM PT: MI HD-51 31/52 precincts reporting

Graves 6,188   54.07
Losey 4,673   40.83

7:44 PM PT: MI HD-51 41/52 reporting

Graves 7,504   53.19
Losey 5,888   41.74

7:48 PM PT: MI I'm seeing CNN delegate projections of 9 for Mitt and 7 for Rick.

7:52 PM PT: Alright, I'm dead tired.  I'm probably going to pass out any moment.  Good night, y'all.

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