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8:19 AM PT: FL Redistricting: The Florida Supreme Court, as expected, issued its ruling on the validity of the state's new legislative maps today; the court had to conduct a mandatory review thanks to the new Fair Districts amendments to the state constitution, which forbid lawmakers from drawing districts which favor incumbency and political considerations. The high court upheld the House lines but struck down the Senate plan on a variety of different grounds; if you have a lot of time to kill, you can read the court's remarkably thorough 200-plus page opinion (PDF).

In a nutshell, the court seemed to have three main objections: (1) that a number of districts were insufficiently compact under the Fair Districts amendments; (2) that even though the map did not cause any dilution or retrogression of minority voting rights, the legislature failed to conduct a functional analysis as to retrogression which would have allowed it to properly balance minority voting protections with the FDA; and (3) that the Senate adopted a numbering scheme that manipulates Florida's staggered terms to allow incumbents to serve 10 years (rather than the normal maximum of eight), something which violates the FDA's prohibition on favoring incumbents.

So now the legislature must reconvene for a special session to draw a new Senate map. If it fails to do so, then the state supreme court will draw a plan of its own. And also note that while the House map passed muster with the court, federal litigation over the plan is still possible. It'll also be interesting to see how this opinion affects pending litigation in state court over the new congressional map, since this decision is the first (and only) ruling interpreting the FDA. Point being: There's a lot of wrangling still left to go.

8:41 AM PT: SC-LG: Almost exactly a year ago, South Carolina's first-term Lt. Gov., Republican Ken Ard, was charged with 92 counts of violating campaign finance rules by the state Ethics Commission. Ard used campaign cash for personal use and failed to properly disclose his spending; among other things, he spend campaign money to attend the SEC championship football game in Atlanta in 2010, and he also bought his wife a gown to wear to the state's inaugural ball. Following the commission's investigation which found Ard guilty and fined him $60K, the case was turned over to the state AG, who convened a grand jury to hear further evidence. Evidently, with further charges looming, it got to be too much for Ard, so he just resigned, effective Friday.

There's also an interesting succession question which Taegan Goddard highlights. Republican Senate President Pro Tem Glenn McConnell, who is next in line to be LG, apparently doesn't want to give up his powerful legislative post. One possibility is that McConnell might resign his current leadership post and allow the Senate to appoint a new president who would take Ard's place (the LG is a mostly ceremonial position), then run for his leadership spot again.


9:34 AM PT: CA-26: Moorpark Councilman David Pollock is dropping out of this open-seat race in the Oxnard/Thousand Oaks area. Pollock cited worries that a split Democratic field could cause problems in the state's top-two primary, where the two candidates who get the most votes regardless of party advance to November. Pollock actually makes a good point here: Until he dropped out, there were four Democrats running, along with one Republican, state Sen. Tony Strickland, and one Republican-turned-independent, Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. That canny move by Parks (she only recently dropped her party affiliation) could potentially allow her and Strickland to make the top two if the Democratic vote is sufficiently fractured.

So now we're down to three Dems: Assemblywoman Julia Brownley, Oxnard Harbor District Commissioner Jess Herrera, and businessman David Cruz Thayne. Brownley is the real heavyweight here, while Thayne (like Pollock) hadn't really raised much. But Brownley only got into the race recently (after Ventura County Supervisor Steve Bennett unexpectedly bailed) and hasn't filed any fundraising reports (nor has Herrera). Brownley should be able to consolidate the Democratic vote, but Thayne and Herrera say they aren't going anywhere. Both say they've received pressure to drop out, and Thayne in fact released emails from a couple of local party officials pushing him to do just that—missives which so far seem to have had the opposite of their intended effect.

And this, in a nutshell, is why I hate the top-two primary system. Parties should be able to choose their own nominees without interference, and any setup which encourages fewer candidates to run (lest they fear damaging their party's prospects in the general election) is a bad thing.

9:39 AM PT: CA-30: Endorsements from sitting House members in California have been few and far between for Rep. Brad Sherman; almost all of the state's very large Democratic delegation has gone for his primary rival, fellow Rep. Howard Berman. But Sherman's scored one of the few remaining undecideds, Rep. Loretta Sanchez. He also picked up the backing of former state Controller Steve Westly, as well as a couple of local unions (a branch of the IBEW and a branch of the Letter Carriers).

9:45 AM PT: FL-22: So there may be yet another Democratic entrant in the open 22nd District: businessman Mark Bell. And by "businessman" I mean, CEO of the company which publishes Penthouse and runs the Adult FriendFinder website.

10:04 AM PT: MD-06: State Sen. Rob Garagiola is going on the attack, digging out a damaging admission from the SEC filings of CapitolSource, the company founded by his chief rival in the Democratic primary, John Delaney. CapitolSource's most recent 10-K (an annual report detailing company operations that all publicly-traded firms must file) includes this nugget:

We are under audit for our 2006 through 2008 taxable years and, if the Internal Revenue Service determined that we violated REIT requirements and failed to qualify as a REIT or otherwise under reported tax liabilities during those years that we operated as a REIT, it could adversely impact our results of operations.
Garagiola also brings up a 2006 Forbes article which labeled Delaney a "loan shark" (right there in the headline) and lead off by noting that he's "pretty good at avoiding taxes." Perhaps, it would seem, a little too good.

Delaney, for his part, is trying to drown out Garagiola's hits with a new round of paid media. Quite tellingly, his new TV spot starts off by mentioning "Rob Garagiola's untrue negative attacks," but rather than rebut them, he just cites his recent endorsement by Bill Clinton. You know, usually when you deliberately try to change the subject, you wanna be a bit more subtle about it. Delaney's new radio ads are similar, though they also throw in some attacks on Garagiola for good measure.

10:30 AM PT: IL Fundraising: Pre-primary FEC reports were due on Thursday night, covering the period from Jan. 1 through Feb. 29. You can find all the numbers at the link. A quick rundown of some of the key races:

IL-02 (D): Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is completely swamping ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson on all fronts.

IL-08 (D): Tammy Duckworth more than doubled up Raja Krishnamoorthi over the last two months, but Raja narrowly edged Duckworth both in spending and remaining cash-on-hand.

IL-10 (D): Ilya Sheyman outraised Brad Schneider $237K to $131K, but Schneider spent almost double. Sheyman has a small cash edge.

IL-12 (R): Jason Plummer, the supposed frontrunner, raised just $37K, not much more than Rodger Cook's $31K.

IL-13 (D): Matt Goetten raised $70K to David Gill's $56K, but Gill spent slightly more. However, Goetten has more than three times the cash left.

IL-16 (R): Rep. Don Manzullo outraised Rep. Adam Kinzinger $261K to $243K. Kinzinger spent considerably more, but Manzullo has a slight cash lead.

11:29 AM PT: IL-02: Hoo boy. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. absolutely unloads on his primary opponent, ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, in this new spot which features a mother whose son died from gun violence lambasting Halvorson for her record on gun control when she served in Congress. I think it packs quite a punch:

Even though what polling we've seen (even Halvorson's own) has been quite favorable to Jackson, I wonder if things are closer than they appear. Jackson's been on the air with several other spots as well, include one TV ad which dings Halvorson for her lack of leadership during the healthcare fight, and a radio commercial which accuses her of voting with Republicans "88 times" (and features a woman howling that Halvorson is "crazy"). Halvorson has a couple of ads out of her own, both positive, but given her soft fundraising, I'd have to imagine Jackson's been able to pay for more airtime in the expensive Chicago media market.

11:37 AM PT (David Jarman): WA-01: After seeming to shut the door on Wednesday on a hypothetical run in some other state (after his loss in Tuesday's Democratic primary to Marcy Kaptur in OH-09), today that door is back open for Dennis Kucinich. Or maybe it isn't, depending on what story you're reading. A CBS News story frames him as looking around, saying "there's new possibilities that are being born at this moment" and, when explicitly asked about Washington state, "we'll see what the next few days and months bring." That's the sexier headline that's getting all the attention; nobody seems to be paying attention to the Washington Post story where he says Thursday that it's "very unlikely" he'll jump into another contest elsewher. At any rate, we've got some clarification from the Ohio Secretary of State's office that might encourage Kucinich to try again; he doesn't have to resign his current seat to pursue a run elsewhere, since the residency requirement applies to the moment when you're elected.

11:40 AM PT: IL-13: Physician David Gill is out with an internal from PPP, showing him up 30-18 over Greene County State's Attorney Matt Goetten in the Democratic primary, which is just over a week away. Of course, there are still a ton of undecideds, and unusually for PPP, this poll was in the field for just a single day.

Goetten, meanwhile, is out with his first TV ad, an unimpressive spot with weak production values. But what stands out most is his startling lack of energy in the parts where he speaks. He sounds like a groggy college student struggling through a 9am class—or, to put it more bluntly, like he really just doesn't seem to want this thing. I've also got to wonder about Goetten's chops more generally; the other day, in an almost David Weprin-esque move, he refused to take a stand on the assault on women's reproductive healthcare freedoms, saying: "I’m hesitant to talk about anything that is not going to create jobs and save the middle class in Central Illinois." Facepalm.

12:11 PM PT: IL-02: This is kind of fucking amazing! The main narrator in that Jesse Jackson, Jr. radio ad I mentioned above is none other than California Rep. Maxine Waters—and the woman who howls that Debbie Halvorson is "crazy" is Florida Rep. Corrine Brown! (You can hear that part around 40 seconds in.) Major tip of the cap to sapelcovits for the hilarious find.

12:13 PM PT: AL-06: The Campaign for Primary Accountability is actually out with a second ad hammering GOP Rep. Spencher Bachus, which you can watch at the link. That's on top of

12:32 PM PT: Polltopia: This guy definitely doesn't have an agenda, does he?

12:56 PM PT: ME-Sen: Given the treatment he's already getting at the hands of national Republicans, it's hard to see independent Angus King keep up the charade that he might caucus with the GOP for a whole lot longer. NRSC chair John Cornyn says that his organization will support the Republican nominee, not King, while DSCC chief Patty Murray and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are decided non-committal. On top of this, the RNC put out a web video that tries to accuse Democrats of "betraying their principles" by holding the door open to possibly supporting King. You could view it as a means of sabotaging King by goading him to display even more "independence" by distancing himself from Democrats, or as an attempt to sow dissent among rank-and-file Maine Dems over the prospect that national party leaders have "forced" the indie King on them.

Either way, Republicans aren't rolling out the welcome mat. And as James Allen ably documents, King's publicly-stated policy preferences lean decided leftward: pro-financial industry regulation, pro-alternative energy, pro-auto bailout. King might fancy himself above party politics, but when it comes time to actually engage in policy-making, he's kidding himself if he thinks he might have a home in the GOP.

1:27 PM PT: WI-Sen: Great catch by The Hotline's Sean Sullivan, who digs out a few grafs from an AP piece that shows how Republican rich guy Eric Hovde's Senate campaign rollout turned into a big bag of fail:

In his campaign launch at a manufacturing company north of Madison, Hovde lashed out at the federal stimulus program and bank bailout program known as TARP, saying the government was "addicted to spending."

"They were bailed out with our money, our taxpayer money, without any consequences," he said.

But U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission records show that Hovde's company invested in at least 33 banks that received $29 billion in TARP money.

When asked about it, Hovde differentiated between owning banks that received federal bailouts and investing in them.

Totally different! Especially on the campaign trail, where nuanced distinctions have ample time to be carefully aired and considered.

1:28 PM PT: CA-21: Eliminating all ambiguity, Fresno City councilman Blong Xiong is officially joining the Democratic field in the open 21st CD.

1:45 PM PT: AZ-06: Arizona's 6th is a very red district, and all of our attention so far has focused on the member-vs.-member battle between GOP Reps. David Schweikert and Ben Quayle. But now a Democrat has entered the race, college professor Matt Jette, who actually ran for governor in 2010—as a Republican. But Jette's platform, which included opposition to the state's notorious new immigration law known as SB 1070, was decidedly moderate... which probably explains why he scored all of 3%. However, despite this Some Dude-ish profile, Jette has already managed to score an endorsement from former state AG Terry Goddard, who was the Democratic gubernatorial nominee last cycle.

1:52 PM PT: CA-25: Pretty clever use of $300, I've gotta say. Democratic podiatrist Lee Rogers, running an uphill battle against GOP veteran Buck McKeon in this challenging district, totally pwned his opponent by putting in the winning bid for a lunch with McKeon at a recent fundraising auction for charity. Rogers now gets to invite three guests; he says he'll bring reporters, though he does not anticipate a "debate." Amusingly, Rogers was actually the only bidder for the meal, which is a pretty funny commentary on McKeon's popularity.

1:58 PM PT: MA-Sen: So it looks like the agreement between Elizabeth Warren and Scott Brown to enforce penalties for any outside spending on the race is going to have some teeth to it. An obscure group ran a handful of web ads touting Brown, so now Brown has to donate half the value of the ads (presently unknown) to a charity of Warren's choosing. (Warren selected the Autism Consortium.) Given that Brown quickly and proudly announced his commitment to honor his pledge, the cynic in me has to wonder if this wasn't some kind of setup: An organization no one cares about spends what is probably the bare minimum possible, allowing Brown to publicly pat himself on the back both for keeping his word and donating to a worthy charity. This is politics. I could believe it.

2:07 PM PT: MN-08: This is no surprise, considering how poorly she fared at the precinct caucuses last month, but ex-state Sen. Tarryl Clark says she won't participate in the party convention process and will instead forge ahead to the August primary. Frankly, I think Minnesota's convention system—where candidates spend gobs of time pumping local activists for their support and often pledge not to participate in an honest-to-goodness primary before actual voters if they fail to get the party's official backing—is a ridiculous, anti-Democratic waste of time. And bear in mind that Mark Dayton, who has been a real savior in the governor's mansion, eschewed the convention as well. Thank heavens, because I doubt Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the party-endorsed candidate, would have been able to pull off Dayton's ultra-narrow win in the general.

2:09 PM PT: MN-Sen: Republican state Rep. Kurt Bills, who had been flirting with a possible third-party bid for Senate, has decided to get into the race but is sticking with his party label, albeit in a decidedly Paulist vein. He joins a remarkably weak pack of fellow GOPers all praying that Republican Jesus will somehow intervene from up on high and allow them to unseat popular Dem Sen. Amy Klobuchar.

2:19 PM PT: MS-02: Former Greenville mayor Heather McTeer, challenging Rep. Bennie Thompson in the Democratic primary, has gone up with a TV ad in the waning days of the campaign (election day is Tuesday). She hasn't raised much money (this is a very poor district), and the production values are... well, it's mostly a series of still photos. Via Twitter, she acknowledges that the buy "isn't massive" but says "it's extremely aggressive."

2:25 PM PT: MT-Gov: State Sen. Larry Jent, just days before filing closes, has decided to drop out of the race for governor, leaving AG Steve Bullock (who had always been the undisputed front-runner) as the only Democratic candidate in the race. Jent's departure could conceivably hurt Bullock on the fundraising front, as candidates for state races in Montana can only raise money for the primary if there actually is a contested primary—but reading between the lines, it sounds like Bullock's people will find a willing Some Dude to stick on the ballot by Monday's deadline.

Also, relatedly, earlier this week, Bullock tapped Brig. Jen. John Walsh as his running-mate. Walsh was the adjutant general of the Montana National Guard, resigning his post just days ago so that he could run for office. Sounds like pretty much exactly the profile you want in a state like this.

2:34 PM PT: ND-AL: GOP Rep. Rick Berg, who got a ton of crap for ripping off former Virginia state House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong with his first ad, has replaced it with a new spot. While terribly cheesy, I actually thought the narration and pacing of that "Mom" ad wasn't bad, but this new commercial has really lousy production values. It features a bunch of stiff-looking people telling the camera that Rick Berg "knows the North Dakota way." Is that sort of like Superman's credo, only single-state-specific?

2:40 PM PT: SC Redistricting: Major bummer: The three-judge panel hearing a challenge to South Carolina's new congressional map just issued a decision in favor of defendants. The court ruled that the map did not, as plaintiffs had argued, dilute minority voting rights. Dick Harpootlian, the main attorney on the case, says he'll review the ruling before deciding whether to appeal. Any appeal would go directly to the Supreme Court, though, so given how unfriendly a majority of the justices have been to claims like these, taking the case up there might be a fruitless endeavor.

3:12 PM PT: TX-23: It looks like Ciro Rodriguez wasn't scared off by state Rep. Pete Gallego's show of force a few days ago, seeing as he's gone ahead and filed to run in the Democratic primary in the 23rd District. Gallego, you may recall, shot out a huge list of 140 endorsements earlier in the week, clearly designed to ward off Ciro, who is attempting his third congressional comeback (he's 1-for-2). Ciro's bounced around races all cycle, though, first declaring for the 23rd (his old seat) last May, then jumping over to the 35th when the first batch of court-drawn interim maps were published in December, and now finally coming back to the 23rd at the filing deadline.

But all that said, it looks very much like Gallego, who's been running since September, is the stronger candidate here against GOP freshman Quico Canseco, so I'd expect him to prevail in the primary.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, bythesea, DCCyclone

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:19:38 AM PST

  •  SC-LG (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Will there be a special election? News stories seem ambiguous; not like it matters that much anyway, though.

    How does homeopathy work?| Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09))

    by gabjoh on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:45:24 AM PST

    •  SC-LG (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      The Senate President is going to take over, the last I heard.

      Man, love this SC-GOP fiscal responsibility and professionalism....

      This is the THIRD election cycle that a state official has had to quit.  First, the agricultural commissioner resigned because he was tied up in a cockfighting racket.  Then the state treasurer resigned for doing cocaine.  Now this. :-P

  •  Birthday/FEC Question (14+ / 0-)

    Hey guys.  I'm at the very end of my Senate analysis (this has pissed me off how long it's taken lol), and I was wondering where I could find a comprehensive list of fundraising numbers for all Senate candidates.  Is there a link to such a list?

    Also, I'm 18 as of today, so that's fun lol.  Not sure if I'll do anything interesting this weekend (outside of hanging out with a friend and finishing my analysis).

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-5); Economic Left/Right: -7.38; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.13

    by AndySonSon on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:46:23 AM PST

  •  SC-LG (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

    Very similar to what happened in Connecticut in 2004 and Pennsylvania in 2001 when the LG was elevated to the governorship.  In both cases, the powerful state senate president pro tem was forced to give up his spot.  In CT Kevin Sullivan gave up his seat and became a figurehead for 2 years then retired, but in PA Jubelirer actually held onto both positions at the same time to much consternation.  He got thrown out after the Pay Raise Scandal anyway though.

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:49:33 AM PST

    •  Reminds me of Perlstein on LBJ (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      And "his demotion from his job as the second-most powerful man in the United States to the vice presidency, a job he found so depressing--almost clinically so--that he sometimes had to be prodded out of bed in the morning".

      From "Before The Storm".

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:12:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't know about you guys (4+ / 0-)

    but I don't need coffee in the morning when I'm roused by the smell of fresh cat fud.

    Here, it's the Bergen County, NJ Republican Party tearing each other apart. The party is already on the decline; Corzine won Bergen in 2009 and in 2011, the Repubs got stomped in county races and failed to pick up any seats in LD-38 which they were heavily targeting. And now they are clawing each other to death. Keep up the good work guys ;)

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:56:03 AM PST

    •  Also, a really weird/funny story (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      NJ politicians will remain full of shit for the foreseeable future.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:57:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hopefully we regain control over county gov't (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, gabjoh, itskevin, MichaelNY

      in the near future.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:59:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That reminds me (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I was thinking the other day about Frederick County, Maryland. It's the largest county by population in the state to operate under a commission form of government, electing five county commissioners at large, and it grew by an almost comical 19.5% last decade. (I have an ex from Frederick County, and I remember being amazed that amidst the housing market crash and the recession, new home construction barely slowed down in her subdivision.) It also swung by one of the largest amounts of any jurisdiction in the country from 2004 to 2008; while Sen. Kerry got blown out there by a 20-point margin, then-Sen. Obama came within a single point of carrying the county.

        If President Obama does better in 2012 than he did against Sen. McCain in 2008, there is a real possibility a Democratic presidential candidate could carry Frederick County. I don't know when the last time that happened was, but it was a long, long time ago.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:10:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          It last happened in (all together now) "1964 when it voted for Lyndon B. Johnson. In 2004 George W. Bush defeated John Kerry 59-39%.[4] Democrats came closer in 2008, when John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a mere 1,157 votes (49.62-48.58).[5] Nevertheless, Republicans in Frederick rebounded to more historical levels in the 2010 Maryland Gubernatorial & Senatorial Elections, giving the Republican Ehrlich/Kane ticket 55% to Democrat O'Malley/Brown's 45. Frederick voters also supported Republican Senate challenger Eric Wargotz over incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara A Milkulski by a margin of 51-46, even as Mikulski was winning statewide by a landslide 61-37."

          If it voted for Eric Wargotz, I'm not sure it's really trending, but who knows.  All five county commissioners are Republicans.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:18:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's somewhat trending Dem, but not all the way (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            The 2008 and even 2010 showings are better than what Democrats could have expected from at least the 1980s to the early 2000s.

            The vote there is notably divided.  Frederick City is pretty solidly Democratic these days, and getting more so; areas to the south (such as fast-growing Urbana, near I-270), and perhaps the Brunswick area) are also getting more Democratic as they grow and diversify.  To the north and east of Frederick the county is more rural and still solidly Republican.

            36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:05:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Division = new MD8/ newMD6 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The city of Frederick (note, not Frederick City as far as I know) and the areas to the south and southwest were what got added on to the MD-6 along with Western Montgomery County to try to make the seat Democratic. The Republican areas of the County were added to Van Hollen's MD-8, figuring he could handle it.

        •  Last time was 1964 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          Which is frequently the correct answer for when a Dem last won some conservative place outside of the deep south.

          http://uselectionatlas.org/... (red = dem blue = gop)

          29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

          by Marcus Graly on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:23:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Since 1960... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Only two "counties" in Maryland have been consistent since (and including) 1960, the city of Baltimore has always been Democratic and Garrett County (the one in the far westeren end) has always been Republican. I'd love to find out if Garrett County even went Democratic in 1932!

            •  It didn't. (4+ / 0-)

              In 1932 Garrett voted for Hoover by a 56-41 margin, and voted for Landon in 1936 by a 55-44 margin. Amazingly, post Civil War, it's only voted Democratic once, in 1868. It's one of those places in Appalachia, like Grant County in West Virginia and South-Central Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee that has just never been Democratic (most of the time, having even voted for the Whigs before the Republicans existed).

              Is neither cool nor named Ben. MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20. -7.25, -0.26.

              by koolbens on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:00:39 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The Western Panhandle... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                koolbens, MichaelNY

                Has been, is, and always will be staunchly Republican.

                Really wish Annapolis had drawn that right-angle MD-01 and packed everything west of Hagerstown and north of Walkersville in with the outer Baltimore exurbs and the Eastern Shore.

                Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:05:22 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Thus, technically Garrett County (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                koolbens, Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

                has never voted Democratic for president, as it was only created as a separate county in 1872. Previously it was part of Allegany.

                Baltimore City has the longest streak of voting Democratic for president in the state, going back to 1960.  Surprisingly, by today's standards, it voted for Ike in 1956, as did every county in Maryland.

                36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:11:54 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thanks for the correction... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  On Garret County. I'm not surprised by Baltimore - Ike also won Chicago, Cleveland, Queens Borough in New York City, Albany, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Indianapolis, Milwaukee and Madison - the only major cities he didn't win were New York City as a whole, Detroit, Boston, St. Paul, Philadelphia, St. Louis and Kansas City.

                  Is neither cool nor named Ben. MI-06 (Home), MI-02 (College), Male, 20. -7.25, -0.26.

                  by koolbens on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:32:33 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Where did you get this information? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I tried the Garrett County Board of Elections as well as the Maryland State Archives without getting someone who could give me the answers....

        •  Why is there such huge growth? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Is it starting from a relatively low base?

    •  Tri-State cat fud... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Might be my favorite in the nation. Perhaps only South Carolina really rivals it.

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:59:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They've been on the decline before (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      for a few years in the 2000s, all they had was Kathe Donovan as County Clerk, and I believe only one freeholder; but they made a big comeback in 2010. I think the overall bluening trend is reasserting itself, and that's also why I'm optimistic that if we don't win in NJ-05 this year, we have a good shot at it in the next favorable election for Democrats.

      How does homeopathy work?| Self-appointed DKE Hudson River Crossings Caucus Chair (NJ-10, college; NJ-05, home & voting (2.5 blocks from NJ-09))

      by gabjoh on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:50:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good to see the Florida SC seeing some teeth... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, MichaelNY

    In the Fair Districts Act. Seems like at least complaints (1) and (2) can be applied to the congressional map as well. Possibly (3), considering Rep. Corrine Brown's hideous vote sink contraption. But really, all we need is for the court to agree with us on one argument, and this establishes good precedent considering a lot of observers (including some of us) were skeptical the FDA would be enforced at all.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 08:56:52 AM PST

    •  Not surprised the Senate map was singled out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, MichaelNY

      Senate Republicans paid virtually no attention to the FDA.  At least the State House made a halfway decent effort to apply some of the FDA's requirements.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:03:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-02: Jackson Jr's Ads (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    You can click through and here/see the other five at the link. Debbie must be creeping up on him for him to be going all in like this...

  •  Another fun fact from yesterday's perusal (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, bumiputera, MichaelNY

    of the Congressional districts atlas:  As I said, in the 63rd Congress, Manhattan included all or part of 14 districts, mostly all.  And, as I mentioned in my diary, there was a vote on a women's suffrage amendment in that Congress.  

    Manhattan's delegation mostly voted against it--I think only Herman Metz (who apparently didn't live in his district), Walter Chandler (a Progressive Party member), and Henry George Jr. (the son of the famous single-taxer) voted for it, and a few didn't vote, at least according to GovTrack.

    26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:32:33 AM PST

    •  Although I might have miscounted the number (3+ / 0-)

      in Manhattan.  Anyway, the geography is interesting.  Most states were pretty monolithic, with only a few exceptions:

      For Suffrage:
      Arizona
      California
      Colorado
      Idaho
      Illinois
      Iowa
      Kansas
      Massachusetts (if split)
      Michigan
      Minnesota (if split)
      Missouri
      Montana
      New Jersey
      New Mexico
      North Dakota
      Oklahoma (split)
      Oregon
      Pennsylvania (pretty split)
      South Dakota (two against one)
      Utah
      Washington
      West Virginia
      Wyoming

      Against Suffrage:

      Alabama
      Arkansas
      Connecticut
      Delaware
      Florida
      Georgia
      Indiana (if split)
      Kentucky
      Louisiana
      Maine
      Maryland
      Mississippi
      Nebraska
      New York (split and many not voting)
      North Carolina
      Ohio (if split)
      South Carolina
      Tennessee (narrowly, largely thanks to its Republicans)
      Texas (unanimous; Sam Rayburn included)
      Vermont
      Virginia
      Wisconsin

      NH and RI were 50/50.  Some of the above were close, but man, make sense of that.  

      I'm intrigued by Alabama's Richmond Hobson, perhaps the sole Deep South Representative to support it.  I recall that his district ran along the Northern part of the Western border of the state.  Also, apparently he was a Medal of Honor recipient, the "father of American prohibition", and friends with Nikola Tesla.  "In later years, Hobson was the only person who was able to persuade Tesla to interrupt his intellectual pursuits for a movie gathering."  So...biopic?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:50:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hobson (3+ / 0-)
        Hobson became a hero of the American press while he was a prisoner of war in Cuba. His portrait appeared in hundreds of newspapers with embellished stories of his bravery in volunteering for what was perceived as a suicide mission. A fund was raised to aid his parents in avoiding foreclosure of their mortgage. When Hobson was released during a prisoner exchange on July 6, 1898, hundreds of American troops snapped to attention, then burst into cheers as he passed. He was deluged with speaking invitations when he returned to the United States. After dining with President William McKinley, Hobson traveled west by train en route to San Francisco and the Philippines. Crowds greeted his train at many stations, and his enthusiasm for kissing admiring young women made him a sex symbol of the Victorian age.[1] He became a sort of celebrity during the rise of popular journalism at the turn of the century and was referred to as "the most kissed man in America."[2]

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:52:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Nevada (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        is left out of the link entirely.  I have no idea why, but it makes me doubt GovTrack, a bit.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:57:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Kind of ironic how NJ's congressional (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        delegation was mostly for suffrage when the voters handed it a resounding defeat.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:08:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Womens sufferage was closely linked to prohibition (6+ / 0-)

      The thinking being, that women would be much more likely to vote dry than men.  Manhattan was a pretty wet area, with it's high immigrant population, so it's not surprising that they voted no.

      29, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      by Marcus Graly on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:09:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've read that too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        But I've read arguments on both sides.

        There was also a prohibition amendment vote that same Congress.  

        346 members are listed as voting "Aye" or "Nay" on both, by my Excelling, and:  

        -103 supported both.
        -73 supported prohibition and opposed women's suffrage.
        -57 opposed prohibition and supported women's suffrage.
        -113 opposed both.

        In other words, more Representatives voted to support or oppose the two amendments together than voted differently.  Also, if you put them on a single dimension, the best result is to ignore the 57 anti-prohibition suffragists, and to have 103 "radicals" supporting prohibition and women's suffrage, 73 "moderates" opposing prohibition and supporting women's suffrage, and 113 "conservatives" opposing both.

        That follows the relationship you describe, I suppose.

        Caveat: Many Representatives didn't vote, and that, as I said in my diary, the South somewhat tilts things by being solidly pro-prohibition and against women's suffrage:

        If you omit Al, AR, GA, LA, MS, NC, SC, TN, TX, and VA:

        -97 supported both.
        -24 supported prohibition and opposed women's suffrage.
        -57 opposed prohibition and supported women's suffrage.
        -84 opposed both.

        Hm...the "moderates" now oppose prohibition and support women's suffrage, but the basic relationship is still there.  (And I would argue these "moderates", who were the "errors" in the earlier analysis, were more likely to be the "true" liberals from a modern perspective--including my diary's subject, Bob Crosser.)

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:34:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And Manhattan's delegation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        was wet indeed.

        Also, of course removing the Southern representatives who violate the relationship wouldn't weaken it.  I'm still waking up here.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:44:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL13 Matt Goetten ad (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    •  dammit he stole the beginning of that ad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      from an ad I was planning on running years in the future.  I thought the rest of the ad sucked, though.

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:35:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's okay (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Emphasis on jobs is always good.

        He's got a good bio. Afghan war vet, state's attorney for Greene County. It looks like he has lived in the district/state his entire life.

        If they havent run a bio ad of him yet, they should.

  •  Oregon Republican utter failure (7+ / 0-)

    they decided to open up the primaries for secretary of state, AG, and treasurer so that unaffiliated voters can vote in them.

    Then they ended up with one candidate filing out of those three offices.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:37:43 AM PST

  •  Yes, I'm reading the Florida opinion (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    A problematic--but predictable--section appears around p. 101-3:

    We reject any suggestion that the Legislature is required to compensate for a natural packing effect of urban Democrats in order to create a ―fair plan. We also reject the suggestion that once the political results of the plan are known, the Legislature must alter the plan to bring it more in balance with the composition of voters statewide. The Florida Constitution does not require the affirmative creation of a fair plan, but rather a neutral one in which no improper intent was involved.
    So, they say, this is not a problem:
    In further support of their argument that the apportionment plan shows partisan imbalance reflective of impermissible intent to favor a political party, the challengers rely on actual statewide election results. In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Governor Rick Scott, a Republican, received 48.7% of the overall vote and Alex Sink, a Democrat, 47.6% of the overall vote. Of the major-party- affiliated voters, Scott received 50.6% of the vote, and Sink 49.4%. However, under the Senate plan, Governor Scott would have won in 26 Senate districts (65.0%), and Sink in 14 Senate districts (35.0%). Similarly, under the House plan, Scott would have won in 73 House districts (60.8%), and Sink in 47 House districts (39.2%).

    In the 2008 presidential election, President Barack Obama, a Democrat, received 50.9% of the overall state vote and Senator John McCain, a Republican, received 48.1% of the overall state vote. Of the major-party-affiliated voters, 51.4% voted for Obama and 48.6% for McCain. Yet in the Senate plan, Obama would have won in 16 Senate districts (40.0%), while McCain would have won in 24 Senate districts (60.0%). Likewise, in the House plan, Obama would have won in 53 House districts (44.2%), while McCain would have won in 67 House districts (55.8%).

    That's a big loss for us.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 09:56:26 AM PST

    •  Do you think that reasoning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is legally/logically problematic, or just politically problematic?

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:01:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It would have been a big surprise (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, bumiputera, dc1000, MichaelNY

      if the court ruled against urban packing done for the sake of compactness.

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:08:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And this is why the FDF amendments (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        are of only limited use to us.

        The proponents should have gone for a full commission.

        Ok, so I read the polls.

        by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:10:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  They did, but they were pulled for (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          being unconstitutional several years back.  This was the next best thing.  And the fact that the FL GOP fought it tooth and nail indicates that they are far from toothless (and this FL SC decision proves that).

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:12:48 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You have a cite for that first claim? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            As to the second, well, it's a matter of opinion. How much do you care that the districts look "clean" if the Republicans can easily retain a strong majority? Note that the House plan was cleared without much fuss.

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:18:36 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Zornorph said that first claim. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Also, the State House did a halfway decent job of applying most of the FDA's requirements while the Senate pretty much ignored it all.

              Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

              by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:21:07 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, with respect, Zornorph's claim (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                isn't good enough for me. In fact, the FL Supreme Court notes that the framers of the FDF amendment and the voters chose to leave redistricting with the legislature, not that they had to. The FL Constitution says:

                Initiative.—The power to propose the revision or amendment of any portion or portions of this constitution by initiative is reserved to the people, provided that, any such revision or amendment, except for those limiting the power of government to raise revenue, shall embrace but one subject and matter directly connected therewith. It may be invoked by filing with the custodian of state records a petition containing a copy of the proposed revision or amendment, signed by a number of electors in each of one half of the congressional districts of the state, and of the state as a whole, equal to eight percent of the votes cast in each of such districts respectively and in the state as a whole in the last preceding election in which presidential electors were chosen.
                And again, does the "halfway decent job" that the house did satisfy you? It isn't good enough for me.

                Ok, so I read the polls.

                by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:29:14 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Of course it doesn't satisfy me. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Also, they tried to get a commission on the ballot years ago, and the FL SC pulled it off the ballot for being unconstitutional.

                  Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

                  by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:29:21 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Do you have a link for that? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Ok, so I read the polls.

                    by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:53:12 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I ask because, even assuming it's true, (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      I don't know exactly why it wasn't allowed. That matters.

                      Ok, so I read the polls.

                      by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:53:31 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Im really curious as well (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        My guess is that the constitution specifically states the legislature does redistricting, thus establishing an independent commission is unconstitutional because it takes a constitutional power from the legislature and gives it to another entity not listed in the constitution.  Although, I'd guess most states' constitutions list who has this power so why can other states re-dictate who gets this power, against original constitutional will, and others can't?  Christ, some days reading this site makes me wish I stayed in law school, and other days makes me glad I got the hell out of that stupidity.  I just gotta keep remembering that in law school, I was a pretend lawyer who took the case concerning why some asshole can use pesticides without it constituting as a nuisance to his neighbors.  He killed all his neighbors plants and won within five class periods, fuck that.

        •  Eh, I'd disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          South Florida is one of the most sprawled out centers of Democratic strength in the country and without the FL-22 gerrymander from the 2000's, we get five solid seats, with the Cuban vote almost necessitating that we screwed out of a sixth due to VRA issues.  Which is something we can't do anything about and that, I'd guess, most of us agree is necessary.

          Where we really need help in FL is everywhere else in the state.  FL-10&11 need fixing not because of urban compactness but because of unnecessary use of water contiguity, which in the end only further compacts the urban city of St. Petersburg.  And hell, even using an urban compactness argument means dividing Corrine's Brown district into a lean Dem seat for Jacksonville, a toss-up in Gainesville (which is a seat we controlled prior to it being gerrymandered for Ginny Waite-Brown in 2000), and possibly another solid seat in Orlando.  So using urban compactness could actually net us seats in FL, depending on who draws the map.

  •  President Obama is in Prince George County, VA (5+ / 0-)

    today.

    There is also a Prince George's County in Maryland.

    Both apparently named in honor of the same Prince George, of Denmark. He doesnt get the possessive in VA for some reason.

    I thought this was critical election news you should be aware of. :)

  •  mn-8 (0+ / 0-)

    Please, go away. You aren't going to get the endorsement, you lost the caucus, now leave.

     http://www.minnpost.com/...

    •  Let the people decide (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jmartin4s, MichaelNY

      She's not my favorite candidate in the race but kudos to Clark for deciding not to abide by the farce that is the party endorsement process. I hate the idea that a couple hundred activists normally get to pick the candidates in Minnesota.

      •  I think the people made the right decision with (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the MNgov primary last year. I trust them do the same with this district. I was really not pleased with how RT Ryback was forced out or how they dealt with MN03 in 08

        •  RT Rybak (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          in all fairness he could have skipped the convention like Dayton did.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:04:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  and he should have, primaries arent the worst (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Minnesota Mike

            thing in the world. They do help in a candidate in building name recognition and organization. As long as they remain polite, they can generally have a benefit. For the purpose of the Minnesota senate race in 2008 which had a million different variables, I happen to think the primary helped Al Franken out and you removed the primary variable, you never know what would have happened. I'd really like to know what the DFL is so afraid of when it comes to a primary, unless they simply want to handpick the candidates themselves.

            •  ??? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              the convention doesn't remove the primary. if it did then MAK would have been the Dem nominee for governor in 2010. Candidates make the choice to compete at the convention. Rybak bowed out of his own accord after losing.

              21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

              by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:17:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I never said the convention removed the primaries (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Minnesota Mike

                I was alluding to the fact, that the DFL wants the convention to eliminate the primaries and for them to decide everything. Ryback chose to bow out after he lost but if there wasnt so much pressure on the other candidates to step aside and allow the convention winner to be the nominee, Ryback might very well have become governor now.

                •  If there was so much pressure on other (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  candidates to step aside, then Mark Dayton and Matt Entenza certainly had no trouble resisting it.

                  I don't mean to defend the whole endorsement process per se, but acting like Rybak was some kind of helpless victim of party hackery is a little unfair, I think.

                  21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                  by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:42:37 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  well maybe its a lesson to candidates in the (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Minnesota Mike, MichaelNY

                    future not to listen to what the DFL says and follow Dayton and Clark's example. Thus making the convention outcome useless, the way it should have been all along.

                    •  Rybak was smart (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Margaret Anderson-Kelliher and he had the exact same political base of very liberal urbanites and highly educated suburbanites. If both had gone onto the primary, Dayton would've won in an absolute cake-walk with his huge appeal in Greater Minnesota.

                      And for the love of god do not give Mark Dayton any credit.  He has been an absolutely amazing governor and at this stage, considering the job he has done and the press he gets, he is a clear favorite for 2014.  The dude is awesome at his job.  However, most of the love he gets is because of nostalgia; my aunts, uncles, and grandparents still accidentally refer to the Macy's downtown as Dayton's. And he represents the old Minnesota and he is Farmer-Labor at heart, hence why he is extremely populist and will not end his desire to raise taxes on the rich until he is done from politics. Also why he won the primary in 2010; he got the F-L base while MAK got the D's.  (DFL: Democrat, Farmer, Labor.  All three are very distinct and have very distinct regions of the state.)  Which, we discovered, is just enough to win statewide in a DFL primary.

                      Which is what brings me to my beef with Dayton and my problem with your sentiments.  Dayton can win any day of the week statewide, regardless if he's been named in the "Top 5 Worst Senators" or as the greatest human being on Earth, as Minnesota simply loves the Dayton's because they revolutionized the retail industry as we know it and they put Minnesota on the map because of it. And even as a gay man from MN, I scoffed at the boycotts of Target because I lived in Minneapolis and after my taxes, they were probably the second greatest contributor to downtown Minneapolis. I've chatted with police officers and one told me all of their segways and fancy equipment was paid for by Target, and that our new agency of downtown ambassadors who picked up garbage, gave lost people directions and watered plants, all paid for by Target.

                      So Dayton was always going to win, but his tax the rich attitude is what made him comparable to Emmer in that both were seen as very extreme in their ideology. And with our history of the third party Independents, it was obvious that the media would pile onto Emmer but be forced to pile onto Dayton because he was equally as extreme because it could give the media it's "non-partisan, above it all" bullshit appearance.  Which is what called out to suburbanites who would've voted for Rybak or MAK, but wouldn't vote for Dayton because he was too extreme, and thus that carried on down ticket and which cost a lot of suburban legislative seats.  (Including, who will be a GOP statewide officeholder someday, state rep. John Kriesel, who won a seat that Obama won by 15.72%.)

                      Mark my words, if RT or MAK had been the nominee, both would've won by high-single digits and both would've seen one of the state legislative chambers under their control. However, either could have been worse governors for us simply because they follow political realities, whereas Dayton follows politic desires.

                      •  And this should go without saying (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, OGGoldy

                        that Clark is no Dayton.  A college friend, who was her finance director, has now quit to head a non-profit.  And considering that Clark has out-raised her opponents every quarter, I think, should say what way the winds are blowing considering that the finance director has now quit. I haven't asked my friend, but I doubt she bailed because Clark no longer needed her help....  In fact, announcing she's running in the primary so shortly after she got trounced in the initial straw poll and after she got a huge shaft in redistricting should indicate that she's having a last gasp of air.  I love Tarryl Clark because she is a liberal from St. Cloud and that's where my entire family is from, but come on......  The city of St. Cloud has nothing in common with the Iron Range except for maybe the percentage of people who have gotten a DUI/DWI.

                        •  My issue isnt being pro-dayton or pro-clark (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          Its that im anti-dfl endorsement deciding who is the nominee. I prefer the route dayton and clark are taking ignoring the convention, it should not have as much influence as it currently does.

                      •  Just curious, do you think Minnesota (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        is trending to the Republicans?

  •  I like grits (12+ / 0-)

    It's becoming to much fun to make fun of his attempts to be likable.

    25, Male, CA-24, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:08:12 AM PST

  •  CA-26: Good for Pollock (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sacman701, MichaelNY

    Top two is a greatly superior way to do things, and will benefit progressives significantly this fall.  We'll get rid of lame deadwood like Laura Richardson, we'll have a chance to get a moderate Republican in the 8th instead of a hard right looney, and in the 26th were are close to guaranteed to get an upgrade on Gallegly, since whoever Strickland faces should be able to beat him... if the general were Strickland v Brownley v Parks, Strickland would win for sure.  

    Nothing stops parties from choosing their nominee.  Nothing stops parties from encouraging or discouraging candidates in the rare situation that we were briefly facing, with the GOP having two strong candidates and we have four week candidates.

     I for one am happy to say good riddance to Richardson, and be very glad to see progressive challenges to deadweight/hacks in heavily Dem districts in the future, and I'm expecially thankful for the opportunity to see cat fud fly and see Republicans wingers whining about how Dems and mainstream Republicans combine to elect sane people in dark red districts.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:40:31 AM PST

  •  MO-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Darth Jeff, MichaelNY

    Missouri CfG President (and former State Rep) Allen Icet endorses teabagger Bill Randles: http://www.firedupmissouri.com/...

    I guess he has no respect for home ec majors.

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:40:32 AM PST

  •  Error in those IL-10 numbers? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, James Allen

    The spreadsheet shows Col. John Tree and a Some Dude named Vivek Bavda massively outraising both Schneider and Sheyman. I assume it's a mistake.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 10:46:17 AM PST

  •  Pat Tiberi's opponent looks like he's sixteen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://reeseforcongress.com/
    lol
    No wonder he drew the second worst proportion of primary voters to the polls. (a 45% Obama district where only 18% of primary voters voted in the Dem primary; thus 40%) Only Chabot's opponent had him beat. (a 47% Obama district where only 14% of primary voters voted in the Dem primary; thus 28%)

    -8.88, -4.21 Why does the most beautiful place in the world (Idaho Panhandle) have to get dumped with thousands of Cali GOP doofuses?

    by Whitty on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:05:43 AM PST

  •  Ras: Obama by 4 in FL, NC, OH and VA combined (7+ / 0-)

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:13:17 AM PST

  •  Could we actually get this lucky? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, James Allen, TofG, tietack

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:17:38 AM PST

    •  I love the assumption (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, bumiputera, tietack, Bharat

      "yeah, Oregon is pretty much just like Washington".

      I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

      by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:22:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Aside from that, you know... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bumiputera, tietack

        There are virtually no major population centers east of the Cascades in Oregon? I mean, yeah, there's Bend, but it's demographically young, not that heavily LDS (11%), and not all that big (<100,000). There's also not as strong of a white-collar business culture in the Portland area as there is in the Seattle area. Romney will win big in Washington County, but Rep. Paul is going to cut into his margins in Multnomah County. Meanwhile, the pro-labor Republicans in Salem, Pendleton, and Umatilla aren't likely to be impressed by him.

        Romney will still probably win Oregon, but it's naive to think Oregon is "pretty much just like Washington". It's not.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:39:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Salem is fundie country. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, tietack

          I don't mean that derogatorily.  I grew up in that area, and so did my dad, but its the bible belt of Oregon.  Marion, Yamhill, Linn, and to a lesser extent Polk and rural/exurban Clackamas County are where it's at.

          The primary is complicated, though.  I looked at the 2002 and 2006 Republican gubernatorial primaries which both featured moderate/conservative splits, in fact both had 2/3 of the same candidates, social conservative Kevin Mannix and business Republican Ron Saxton.  The problem is that in 2002 the moderate vote was split with Jack Roberts of Eugene, so Mannix won, and in 2006 Jason Atkinson split the conservative vote and Saxton won, so it was hard to get a good read.

          But overall, I'd expect Romney to do well in places over 10% Mormon, which is mostly in Eastern Oregon, like Malheur County (which is less than 200 miles from Utah).  He'd do well in liberal-moderate cities like Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Eugene, Corvallis, Ashland, Bend, etc.  He'd do well in wealthier areas like eastern Springfield, Lake Oswego, Happy Valley, etc.

          Santorum should do better in rural Oregon, in the Willamette Valley outside of the major cities, in some exurbs and suburbs that have very hard-right religious communities, in Southern Oregon (perhaps aside from Jackson County), he should at elast split the coast, and run especially well in red and light blue areas like Columbia, Tillamook, Coos, and Curry Counties.  Places that are heavily evangelical/pentecostal/assemblies of god/you get the point like Jefferson County, Klamath County, Josephine County, etc, should be good for him.

          Overall if it comes down to the two of them (and Paul), I couldn't call it, but it should be within 10 points either way.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:02:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  My gut: Santorum can win Clakamas Co (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            It's as close as there is to a fundamentalist base in the PDX metro area.

            "I hope; therefore, I can live."
            For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

            by tietack on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:22:04 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  and in my area (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson

              in Washington County, meaning Tualatin/Tigard/Sherwood, it seems like most of the Republicans in and around here are social conservatives.  Sure, some of them are wealthy (Tualatin, Bull Mountain), and I shouldn't discount them, but my next door neighbors and others on the street are extremely religious social cons, someone in the neighborhood had a Perry sign before Perry got in.  This area has some serious church communities.  I mean Tigard is like 60% Obama, but the Republicans that are here seem to be pretty much social conservatives.  In Beaverton and Hillsboro, the biggest cities in the county, Romney should romp.  Further out in the county Romney will be weaker.

              I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

              by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:31:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Also, national median household income: $51,914 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tietack

          Oregon's medial household income: $49,260   
          Washington's median household income: $57,244

          As you said, Washington has a more white collar economy.  The whole state is built around a wealthier culture than Oregon.

          I think that makes Romney weaker here.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:12:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting analysis (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, SaoMagnifico

      I'd assumed for awhile that Romney would start to put it away in April when states friendly to him come in and boost his overall momentum, but if he still struggles in May than it's anyone's guess.  I mean, he will still be a hell of a lot closer to 50% of the delegates than anyone else, but it will look pretty bad.  Again, we're talking about Rick "I forgot to submit a full delegate slate" Santorum being his main opposition.

    •  Sure, the map isn't there for Mitt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico

      His many bad scenarios even include him winning AL and MS with Santorum/Newt splitting the vote behind him, and that being bad for him as wingers howl for Newt to get out.

      Even if Newt stays in and splits the winger vote to the end, the facts impossible to ignore...

      About half the states are done.  they were heavily frontloaded with Romney states.  The most heavily Mormon states are done, except for Utah which goes last.  Romney's three "home states" are done.  The Virginia fluke is done.  And after all this Romney-friendly stuff, according to google Mitt has.... 55% of the delegates from these contests.  He needs to do at least as well with the rest of the contests.

      But the map is now much more unfavorable to him.  Only Hawaii, Oregon, Montana and New Mexico have 3 to 5% Mormons besides Utah.  The winner take all states before June favor Santorum a bit.  Newt might drop out which does not help Romney.  Etc.

      Mitt surely could get the most delegates going into the convention, but he needs to do better than he has been to continue to get the 55% he has gotten to this point.

      (Convention dream sequence... Mitt can't get to 50%+1 without making a deal with Ron Paul to put Rand Paul on his ticket as VP.)

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:50:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting piece. Now you tell me if I am wrong. (0+ / 0-)

      I almost don't even focus on the delegate count, since it still seems more likely than not that he will be the nominee. Instead, I think it makes sense to think about how the race affects him in other ways, such his financial status and how it shapes the narrative about him.

      Broadly speaking, I think the longer this goes on, the more of disaster it is for Romney and the Republicans. There are no indications he is using his time like Obama, and even Clinton, were using their time in 2008: building up the party, however indirectly, for the fall. In fact, I think the opposite is true: everything I've seen suggests that he's running negative ads and little else. To some extent, this is understandable, but it's also a missed opportunity. In the same way that you can't directly make up for lost years when it comes to investing or saving, you can't make up for the days, weeks, and months where your campaign wasn't focused on building an infrastructure. I'm sure there's not a total absence of this stuff, unless he's in worse shape than even I could have imagined, but is the focus on trying to hold down the margins in blue areas of Ohio or Colorado and/or build them up in the red areas? Does he have what might be expected for someone in his position to have in any states? If he doesn't, could he, or does he suffer even more from the fact that few are directly for him as much as the opportunity to work on any campaign? And the fact that he's taking it from all sides, from both his own party and, increasingly, the Obama campaign, is really going to hurt him. His favorables are horrendous and they show no sign of improving.

      I've talked about this before, and in the interest of not making this longer than it should be (too late, probably, but whatever), I will simply ask: when does this change? I can't help but think that it's not going to change until either Gingrich or Santorum drops out and/or until the media starts acting like he's inevitable--more than it does now, anyway. But really, he should be in the second or third phase of his campaign, where he thinks about the general rather than the primary. That he does not appear to be doing this is going to harm his campaign, should be there be one, in a lot of ways, all of which benefit Obama.

      So now, you tell me if I am wrong with any of this.

      •  I think you're on track (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        If romney wins, he's going to win in such a way that his poor infrastructure in states like VA wouldn't have been the determining factor anyways. And if he loses, those disadvantages will make it worse but he's already a loser so who really cares?

        Is that basically what you're saying?

        A perception is going to get locked in around May/June about the economy and the state of the campaigns and whatever that is, voters will keep it for the rest of the summer and re-engage around Labor Day...at least that's what I think.

        Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

        by Bharat on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:49:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's not exactly what I am saying, but it (0+ / 0-)

          relates to my point. I was trying to say that he's losing time to do all of the things that would make him and his campaign stronger, which is in sharp contrast to the way the Obama-Clinton race played out. It's not entirely clear to me how much of this he can control, but one thing seems very obvious: every single day this drags on is one less day he can focus his resources on bringing together the elements for a cohesive infrastructure and one less day he can focus his energy on hammering Obama. All of this would be a problem if the economy weren't doing as well as it is and the demographic changes weren't going to help Obama as much as they appear to be able to, but the fact that it is getting better and demographics are going to help us makes it even worse.

          I think a perception might be locked in sooner than that, or later than that. It definitely depends on what happens with the economy, and if there's a chance that everything could go to shit in a month or less, it could be damaging much like when the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008. I guess I could see it mattering less the closer it is to election day, if enough jobs are added by then and/or if Obama is able to be seen as the stronger leader for the situation, but that's not something I am all that curious about seeing played out in real life.

  •  It seems early for Rasmussen to be getting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    accurate. This just might (I did say MIGHT) be a 1984 style presidential election, probably not 1964 or 1972, but then one mustn't be greedy.

  •  NJ-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Assembly Majority Leader Lou Greenwald and NJDP Chair John Wisniewski posturing for a 2013 gov run? http://www.politickernj.com/...

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:27:28 AM PST

    •  Greenwald probably has a better shot (0+ / 0-)

      He may end up being George Norcross's "South Jersey" candidate once Norcross comes to the conclusion, if he hasn't already, that Steve Sweeney can't be nominated.  

      "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

      by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:39:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't Sweeney have his eye on Senate anyway? (0+ / 0-)

        He'd probably do less damage in Washington than Trenton, I think.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:43:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He wouldn't get the nomination there either (0+ / 0-)

          His only hope would be a multi-candidate field.  Probably more than three.  He'd be trounced in a one on one race against someone like Pallone or Holt.  Just as he would get trounced by Dick Codey.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

          by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:52:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  David (12+ / 0-)

    the woman who calls Debbie Halvorson "crazy" in that ad isn't some random paid voiceover - it's Corrine Brown! (Maxine Waters also was in the ad.)

    21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

    by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 11:36:27 AM PST

  •  The Chicago Tribune endorsed Jackson Jr? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    That's a little surprising to me.

  •  I think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Dennis may be hinting at running for Don Paynes seat in New Jersey.

  •  Study: health care law cost Dems 25 house seats (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, MichaelNY

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Of course I remember being told that we had to pass the law or else lose the house.  Well they did, and we did.

    "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:03:46 PM PST

    •  And not passing HCR in 1994 (23+ / 0-)

      worked so well for us, right?

      Perhaps we were damned if we did and damned if we didn't.  So I think it's best that we did and did a lot of good for people regardless of the political or electoral consequences.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:05:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (22+ / 0-)

        if we're so afraid of losing the House that we don't pass groundbreaking legislation, what's the point of controlling it?

        21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:09:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, flhiii88, skibum59, MichaelNY

          Even the freshmen who lost can say they had a hand in actually passing legislation Democrats have been championing for at least half a century.  The freshmen who lose in 2012 are going to have a legacy of nada.

          Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

          by marcvstraianvs on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:22:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Timing was terrible (0+ / 0-)

          Getting the economy back on track should have been the focus.  And including the Heritage Foundation's individual mandate was, and still is, a political disaster.

          "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

          by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:23:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  So you think we would have been fine if we'd (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88, MichaelNY

            "killed the bill" for lack of an individual mandate or are you arguing that if we'd somehow gotten it passed with the mandate it would have been wildly more popular?

            The former seems pretty unlikely given the blowback from such a monumental legislative failure and the second seems very unlikely given how low-profile the mandate was outside of the netroots.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:26:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I do agree that it was unfortunate that the (6+ / 0-)

            economy was really bottoming out right as Dems took over, and that that caused the huge losses in 2010, but I don't think the rational response to that was to go into a super-defensive posture and refuse to pass anything meaningful out of a concenr that it woudl take the focus off of the economy.

            Especially since (1) we really couldn't have done anything about the economy anyways and were doomed to look impotent no matter what and (2) super-majorities like the one we had from 2009-2010 don't come along very often and you'll never get big reforms passed if you don't take advantage of them when they occur

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:29:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  That thinking is a major fail (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88, MichaelNY

            There was no getting the economy back on track faster.  There was nothing more that realistically was going to short-circuit the recession and bring down unemployment faster.  I've spent a lot of time over the past year reading stuff on this, and everyone who tries to argue otherwise even with the best arguments they can come up with ultimately fails miserably.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 04:02:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Depends on how early something was done. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Had the Democrats somehow gotten something major* through in, say, May or June of 2010 and job creation had been double or triple what it was--basically where it is now--I suspect a lot of the damage could have been avoided. Remember that our numbers were so high in the House that we could have lost 35 seats and still held on to the majority. If nothing else, it would have convinced the public we were trying to do something.

              *I say something major because, every so often, I read about an attempt to do something, but it's not clear what was in it or why it failed, either to stimulate growth or to even pass at all. This might be an error on my part, but I figure that if it's not big enough for me to be at least vaguely familiar, it probably would not have been big enough to make a difference in time.

              •  Nothing major was possible (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Scott Brown won in late January 2010, that gave the GOP 41 seats and they were united in killing all Dem initiatives.  They certainly were united in killing anything major.

                That's my point, that anything that would really help required legislation that the GOP had the Senate votes to kill for almost the entire Congress.  It was really only a short window in which we had 60 votes, a lot of people don't realize that.  There wasn't a long time between Specter flipping and Franken getting seated, giving us 60, and Kennedy dying to knock us down to 59.

                Keep in mind that the rule is 60 for cloture even if there's a vacancy, so Kennedy's death didn't reduce the number of votes we needed, it just required an extra Republican to flip to pass anything.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Mar 10, 2012 at 12:30:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Not the reason we lost the house in '94 (0+ / 0-)

        NAFTA, the crime bill and Clinton's "scandals" had more to do with it.  

        One of those instances where learning the wrong lesson from history was worse than forgetting the past.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:11:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Please, how far back do you want to go (11+ / 0-)

          when discussing how we lost the House in 2010?

          Beginning and ending with the healthcare bill is misguided IMO. The far bigger sin was in the inadequate size of the stimulus. And no, you can't just take a poll and ask people whether they wish there had been a bigger stimulus. That's like asking a cancer patient if he would prefer more chemotherapy.

          Ok, so I read the polls.

          by andgarden on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:18:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  So what's your point then? (6+ / 0-)

          Are you part of the "kill the bill" group that wanted to get rid of it for not having the public option or are you opposed to passing big bills if they are politically unpopular?

          At any rate, I don't buy that the bill made a difference in any more than a handful of seats. Although long-entrenched conservadems definitely did benefit from voting against it, I'm not at all convinced that it helped the freshman in sophmores in Republican titlting districts whose losses utimately cost us most dearly in 2010. Those incumbents lost from the poor economy and much whiter and older electorate more than anything else and seem to have, on average, faired no better for voting against the bill (see Tom Periello vs. Glenn Nye).

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:24:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  My point (0+ / 0-)

            Passing Max Baucus's health insurance reform bill cost us the House.  And it's not my point per se.  It's the study's point.

            "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

            by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:31:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  The paper seems to (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            account for the economy:

            Lots of blogging talk yesterday about a new paper forthcoming from Brendan Nyhan, Eric McGhee, John Sides, Seth Masket and Steven Greene showing the effects of ACA on the 2010 elections. Their finding is that (1) the final ACA House vote seems to account for the difference between expected Democratic losses from the economy and other fundamental factors alone and the actual losses the Democrats experienced in 2010; and, (2) that the way that actually happened was that voting for ACA made a Member appear far more liberal, and therefore voters seeking to vote for the candidate ideologically closest to them flipped to the Republican.

            My emphasis.  Anyway, we should probably read the thing before we argue about it too intensely.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

            by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:52:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Looking at the paper (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              here (via Bernstein), they don't directly account for the economy's effect, except to note that district-level unemployment was not significant, but they look at regressions with the Presidential vote, the member's DW-Nominate score, the member's party unity score, and HCR/stimulus/cap-and-trade votes.  The r-squared is 0.88.  

              The first column of Table 3 shows that, even after controlling for Obama’s share of the district’s 2008 presidential vote and their DW-NOMINATE and party unity scores, the three roll call votes are jointly significant in an F test (p < .01), suggesting that they provide additional explanatory power. The vote share of Democratic supporters of health care reform was 8.5 points lower than that of Democratic opponents. By contrast, support for the stimulus or cap and trade did not have a statistically significant relationship with vote share.
              They also look at "matched samples of Democratic incumbents".  My main suspicion is when they say that they "simply do not observe Democratic incumbents in safe seats opposing health care reform", which is not quite true.

              But it's an empirical claim, as Chait apparently says, not a normative claim, or at least it can be seen that way.

              26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

              by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:14:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  These types of studies are bullshit (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NMLib, MichaelNY

            Politics is dynamic and fluid, there are a lot of things that go on at a time, and at best we can draw only a few conclusions about outcomes.

            We can say with certainty that the HCR law hurt us with seniors and maybe to a lesser extent with a few other demographics.  We can say the economy hurt us with almost everyone.  And maybe there are a few specific seats, based on what was known about polling there and the turnout model, where it's clear HCR cost us those seats.

            But trying to calculate with this kind of precision is nonsense.

            Frankly my view is if we didn't pass HCR, we'd have done nothing at all with Democratic supermajorities, and the demoralization would be supermassive beyond what happened.  We'd have lost as many seats or more.  Democrats walked away from HCR in 1994, and look where it got us.  The economy was going to stay in the tank no matter what we did or didn't do otherwise.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 04:12:41 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Oh dear God (7+ / 0-)

          Let's not do this again. Please. I'm having Firedoglake flashbacks.

    •  Think its a case of damned if do (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Damned if dont...I'm glad the 111th actually did something though, and the 112th is even more unpopular now than the last Congress was.  At least the members who lost in 2010 can say they accomplished something.

      Hey you, dont tell me theres no hope at all Together we stand, divided we fall.

      by marcvstraianvs on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:19:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Chait has a very good rebuttal: (8+ / 0-)
      It’s a convincing demonstration that individual members were better off voting against the bill. Yet the authors leap to the conclusion that the House Democrats in the aggregate would have been better off letting the bill die. It’s just as possible, however, that they’re measuring a kind of prisoners’ dilemma, in which every member would be best off voting against a bill that passes, but worse off if so many of them vote no that the bill fails.
      http://nymag.com/...
      •  Totally agree (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY

        Although I suppose you could argue that we shouldn't have tried to do anything meaningful from a policy prospective during that period and that we therefor shouldn't have attempted health reform at all, it seems pretty clear that the second it became a policy priority failure would have been much more negative than what occurred.

        I do agree, incidentally that Obama screwed up by allowing the debate to drag on far longer than he needed to and resultingly caused us damage from that.

        All that being said, I suppose we are getting dangerously close to going beyond the focus of DKE so I'll try to refrain from further discussion.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-8. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:37:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It wasn't up to Obama how long the process took (5+ / 0-)

          It was partly Baucus and the Gang of Six (for wasting time trying to get a bill Republicans could sign onto), partly partly Ted Kennedy (for not resigning when he could no longer perform his duties) and the Massachusetts electorate (for electing Scott Brown), and mostly Republicans for deliberately abusing the filibuster to drag things out.

          It was a major piece of legislation that went through five committees in two houses and passed the Senate once and the House twice, all in about nine months. It's not really reasonable to expect things to move a lot faster than that.

      •  They would have been better off with no bill (0+ / 0-)

        wasting, I mean, working its way through the legislative process for nearly a year.  Consuming the majority of the energy.  When that time could have been spent focusing full attention on recovering from the financial crash.

        "We calmly accept our uncertain position." Joey Rathburn

        by Paleo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 12:39:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree with you (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          wholeheartedly, but this is moving quickly away from an electoral discussion.

        •  the reluctance of some Democrats to pass it (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, itskevin, skibum59, MichaelNY

          when the drawn out process hurt them regardless, and even people who voted against it were defeated in 2010, really hurt them.  If they'd gotten in line and done it sooner it wouldn't have been so bad.

          I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

          by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:04:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Then you owe us your recovery plan (5+ / 0-)

          What was the silver bullet in your mind that actually would've been accomplished to stop the recession and bring down unemployment before the midterm?

          If you don't have that answer, your argument fails.

          I've spent a lot of time in earnest searching for that in the past year, and all the ideas are failures.  They all require either legislation that had no chance of passing, or wishful thinking that a Fed appointment here or some executive action there somehow would have caused a very specific set of dominoes to fall in policymaking and resulting outcomes that at best are purely speculative.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 04:16:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Really? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          So... what would have been passed if HCR hadn't been? I mean the argument you're making is that HCR prevented us from focusing on the economy, but how would "focusing on the economy" given us the ability to pass any other bills?

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 25 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:16:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Overly simplistic... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      It assumes that all those dems would not have been booted out for other reasons if the health care bill had not been passed.

      The health care bill filed in 1994, and that didn't save any seats.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:12:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Am I misunderstanding this (0+ / 0-)

        Or are they saying that a vote against the bill would have saved seats? Plenty people lost who did vote against it.

        "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

        by conspiracy on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:17:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  They say that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Vote shares were lower among supporters than opponents, once you control for other factors like district partisanship.  And you might recall that twohundertseventy found that, in a simple "PVI+incumbency" regression, the top Democratic performers were mostly conservative Democrats (he apparently took his blog down, though).

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:35:39 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Bull. (7+ / 0-)

      Maybe not selling the bill cost 25 seats.  House Dems talking copious amounts of shit about it and then passing it anyways was the problem.  What could have been sold as a great start instead was framed as "nobody likes it".  

      The ACA will save millions of lives and is a great building block for future improvements.  The blue dogs were the ones decimated - they bite the bullet and passed it while the progressive wing mhined and moaned that it wasn't enough for them - like that would have passed the Senate.  

      But I forgot - Obama's arm twisting and/or Jedi mind tricks could have really convinced them if he wanted to.  

      •  "Dems talking copious amounts of shit about it" (8+ / 0-)

        BINGO!!!

        The single biggest failure of that Congress was a whole lot of individual Congressional Democrats themselves trashing their own legislative efforts.  They vocally trash all their own bills and then vote for them, and then act surprised the public rebelled.

        Remember the Ryan Plan?  Neither do I.  It's not been in the news or on voters' minds for a long time.  That's because Republicans have discipline no matter how stupid and evil their ideas, and they manage to shut up in criticism of stuff they own, thus getting everyone to forget what they just did.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 04:19:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  If you are feeling hopeful about humanity, (0+ / 0-)

    this might change your mind.

    The description of the book reads like a practice problem on the LSAT concerning circular reasoning. If it's any indication of what the book itself is like, I might change my opinion about book burnings.

    I swear, I'm ready to donate whatever I can to support almost anyone at all to boot this clown out of the Senate. It's probably a hopeless cause, but you never know.

    •  The only way Inhofe is getting booted (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dsh17, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      Is if he gets primaried by a GOP'er.

      Incidentally, I read - I think on DKE - that his '08 opponent, Andrew Rice, left the State Senate and moved to Tennessee (his wife got a new job there). He seemed like an extremely promising candidate, though Okla. was way too red for him. Maybe he can run for office in Tennessee - he might have better odds, even if they still wouldn't be great.

      •  For a Democrat in 2012..... (7+ / 0-)

        Moving from Oklahoma to Tennessee is like seeking warmer weather by moving from Greenland to Iceland.

      •  You are probably right. (0+ / 0-)

        Unless Brad Henry runs, that is. There might have been polling that showed him down, perhaps by a lot, but I am not sure. But if anyone can do it, it's him.

        We should at least try. Based on fund raising, it doesn't seem like the Inhofe-Rice was top tier, understandably so. Perhaps there was more done than I realize, but I always wonder how things might have turned out had it been a big focus.

        For shits and giggles, I looked up the results from OK-01. As it happens, in 2002, when Steve Largent retired and John Sullivan defeated Doug Dodd, he only won with 54 percent. That's still a big margin, but the Dodd, the Democrat, won 44 percent, with the Independent candidate getting two percent. Unless things have changed so dramatically over the last decade, which is certainly possible, or there was some special quirk of the race, it seems to indicate that people aren't explicitly hostile to Democrats.

        •  Just because one candidate in one district (0+ / 0-)

          Lost by only (?) 10 points, once, 10 years ago, doesn't mean an incumbent Senator's ripe for defeat.  Do you really think that campaign spending might have beaten Inhofe when Obama was losing every county in the state?

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 06:22:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think you misunderstand me. (0+ / 0-)

            I never said Inhofe was ripe for defeat. I think our chances go up if he's not the nominee, in the same way it's almost always easier to defeat someone who isn't an incumbent, but they are still really, really shitty. I do want us to try, though.

            The reason I brought up OK-01 in 2002 is that it's yet another indication that not all people are reflexively opposed to voting for us. The same thing happened in OK-02 in 2002. As I said, there could be a quirk of each race that I am not realizing, or perhaps the rightward turn happened over this period, and fairly quickly, that explains these results. Now, even if I am more right than wrong, finding candidates and getting resources to compete won't be easy. And in the end, we still might fail. I just think it's worth trying, and when we have candidates that have little to no money and receive no institutional support, for completely understandable reasons, I don't think we can say we have been trying.

    •  If Brad Henery (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      ever makes another run it will be at Coburns open seat in 2016.

  •  Wisconsin GAB: just making shit up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Sounds like my prediction of a June 5th recall date (which would already be an unjustified violation of the law) was too optimistic - now it's going to be June 12th!

    http://www.wearewisconsin.org/...

    These people are singularly corrupt and incompetent - mostly the latter.

  •  WI-Recall: Senate recalls are (almost) official (5+ / 0-)

    GAB staff found enough signatures against the four Senators up for recall. The board has to sign off and set a date yet. They're shooting for a May 15 primary and a June 12 general, but need judicial approval.

    http://host.madison.com/...

  •  Blong Xiong is in (6+ / 0-)

    http://fresnobeehive.com/...

    This just popped up in my twitter feed. It also implies that he has Michael Rubio's support which could be important.

    Swingnut, new CA-38 resident, more punk than you! Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus.

    by uclabruin18 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:00:46 PM PST

    •  good catch! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Should be interesting.

      ex-SSP. Central Califonia. -6.75,-4.97

      by hankmeister on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:24:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rubio's support is very, very interesting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      He's also hitting, as I predicted, the "Hmong and Hispanic immigrant experiences are the same" theme. Smart. We will see where this takes us; Valadao and Hernandez could, considering the jungle format of the top-two primary, split Latinos (with Valadao also picking up Republicans), while Xiong consolidates non-Hispanic Democratic and anti-Republican support, leading to a Valadao vs. Xiong battle in November. The top-two format is just too untested in these scenarios to have any idea if that could happen, I think...

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:03:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  regional split (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        At this point I put this currently a R-tilt race
        I suspect that this race may well be driven by geographic allegiances of to the county political bases involved.
        Xiong is Fresno based
        Hernandez is Bakersfield based
        Valadao is Hanford based.
        The Kings County vote has traditionally been a Republican gimme. Depending on how much money Hernandez raises and who is backing him He should win the Bakersfield vote. At this point, I believe that whoever wins the heavily Filipino city of Delano will probably win this race.

        ex-SSP. Central Califonia. -6.75,-4.97

        by hankmeister on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:00:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Just saw a name of a Congresscritter (5+ / 0-)

    I've never heard of, something that hasn't happened since 2007.  ::sigh::  That and the fact I rarely comment here anymore clearly indicates my life is in a downward spiral.  (I call it a downward spiral, others would call it a job.)

  •  Rasmussen's agenda (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, tommypaine, itskevin, DCCyclone

    Clearly he has one but I also think he just isn't very good at what he does. So on the same day he says Obama is winning in swing states he also finds a six point national swing in a day to Romney.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:05:07 PM PST

  •  Rasmussen's game is this - (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, TofG, ChadmanFL, itskevin

    Show Obama strong when it doesn't matter, so he can show a big move to Romney once he gets the nomination and it becomes a big MSM story.  

  •  I just finished reading the entire FL SC opinion (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, dc1000, MichaelNY

    and I got these takeaways for how they may rule on the congressional redistricting:
    1. Corrine Brown's district could be in trouble based on this ruling, to some degree. An alternative that would have it only go to Gainesville and Daytona Beach with about the same black population as they talked about in the opinion seems consistent with their analysis of Districts 6 and 9.
    2. The Orlando mishmash to protect Daniel Webster may be in for trouble, and if Corrine Brown's seat no longer stretches to Orlando, that throws another wrench into the plan.
    3. The Court did not look much at the St. Pete/Tampa/Bradenton configuration. That district is only about a third non-Hispanic white (SD-19). However, the senator here currently in SD-18 (Sen. Joyner) is black. Last time I checked, Kathy Castor was not. But if I look at the Senate opinion as a whole, the Bill Young district with the St. Pete bite out of it may be in trouble.
    4. The Alcee Hastings seat looks likely to pass muster. The I-95 type seat was rejected in favor of the one that has a lot of swamp to the west and takes bites to the east of black voters.
    5. Justice Pariente is a much stronger jurist than Chief Justice Canady.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:31:51 PM PST

    •  Interesting. (0+ / 0-)

      Let me quickly draw up a new district for Corrine Brown using those suggestions you floated.

      If it's roughly as AA as it is under the passed map, it shouldn't be a problem (hell, she lives in Jacksonville, so it would actually be better for her).

      Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

      by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:37:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Senate part of the opinion (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        looked favorably on a 42.4% black VAP located solely within Duval County, but that is not possible for a Congressional seat. However, it will be interesting to see how far south you need to go to get up to 42.4%.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 01:46:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's hard I found, but doable. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Esepecially if you can cut precincts, which DRA can't.

          Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

          by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:04:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What does a fairly clean (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Jacksonville-Gainesville-Daytona map get you?

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:05:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Roughly 40% VAP black (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              but I was pretty rough in my attempt and DRA is slow for some reason.

              Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

              by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:11:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  What is the political breakdown? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:16:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Obama got >60% of the vote here. (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

                  Sh*t politicians say: “Well It’s not a stereotype at all. This is a — you know, through the creative — this is a young woman in China who is speaking English. That’s quite an achievement. " -Pete Hoekstra

                  by KingofSpades on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:21:32 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That would fit the opinion's logic (4+ / 0-)

                    where they look at the percentage of Democrats, black Democrats, and Democratic performance.
                    I like this totality of the circumstance reasoning. I never liked the hard an fast numbers used.

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:29:15 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  I tried on Florida Redistricting site (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It is impossible to get a VRA black VAP majority seat around JAX, without going into Orlando.

              But the current FL-03 is not black VAP majority, nor was it in 2000. What you can try is to match closely to its current black VAP percentage.

    •  Some thoughts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      1. Maybe not. My guess is to maintain the black VAP percentage of the current FL-03, one has to have JAX downtown + NW Orlando, throwing either the east side of Gainesville or Daytona Beach.

      One can argue FL-05 can have a Jax-Daytona-Orlando configuration, and there should be a community of interest seat from Tallahassee to Gainesville. But the justices outright rejected the coi argument, only in favor of compactness.

      2. Once this one is set, and it has to go into Orlando, not much you can do about FL-10 and FL-07. You might get rid of that nasty tail of FL-10 (to get downtown and east side of Orlando) but the basic composition of these two won't change much.

      3. I read this as bad news. It may not be possible to put St Pete back into Young's district, without causing Castor's seat to retrogress.

      4. Agree. But FL-21, FL-22, FL-23 might need some shuffle around. This may guarantee a Dem pick up FL-22, instead of just leaning.

      5. I think Canady was put on the bench when Charlie was still palling around as a Republican.

    •  Huh? I thought the court OK'd the Congress map (0+ / 0-)

      Or am I wrong?

  •  Lee Rogers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, MichaelNY

    He's an intriguing candidate.  Obama won the seat (49-48, Brown and Boxer got trounced here though) and he seems to be an accomplished MD.  And it looks like he knows how to get free pub and has a Wellstone-ian sense of humor.  Maybe keep CA-25 on the radar?

    NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

    by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:07:19 PM PST

    •  Yes, keep it on the radar (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But it's a very tough district. Santa Clarita is pretty red and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Palmdale is promising and should be better for Obama than 4 years ago because of so many young people and minorities moving into the Antelope Valley. But this is a part of LA's TV market, so no broadcast ads, any ads will probably be on cable. Rogers needs to not only hope that a general election will have huge turnout for Obama but also that those people vote down the ballot. This is a seat that should become swingy by the end of the decade. Rogers will need his A-game to compete here.

      Swingnut, new CA-38 resident, more punk than you! Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus.

      by uclabruin18 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:37:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  CA25 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Dems may be able to compete there in a few years, but it will probably take a lot of organizational grunt work. Brown lost by 13 and Boxer by 17, but this may be just because Dem turnout completely collapsed in 2010. CA25 was one of many SoCal districts where Obama did well but Brown and Boxer didn't, but the others are all upscale (mostly coastal) districts with a fair number of libertarian types who can accept a Dem as president but not for lower offices. I don't think the high desert is in the same category.

        SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:04:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  CA25 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I think it's a case of the Latino vote collapsing in 2010, similar to what we saw in the Central Valley.  As uclabruin pointed out, Palmdale is trending our way and this could be a blue seat by decade's end.

          NY-12 resident, lives across the street from NY-14

          by Bobby Big Wheel on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:28:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Lockyer losing says more than Brown and Boxer (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Lockyer losing it (by 3.5%) means no statewide Dem won in 2010.  That's close enough to think Lockyer or Obama can win it in 2012, and we could definitely beat an Angle-type here, but beat McKeon, no realistic chance of that... though when retires a solid candidate could do it.

          Hopefully Buck will do us a favor and retire in a Presidential year....

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:19:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  WI Recall: FRAUD UNCOVERED!!1!!1!!!!!1!! (7+ / 0-)

    You know the guy who said he signed 80 times? Turns out he didn't do that. And may not even have signed once.

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

  •  Re: Berg ad. (12+ / 0-)

    How can you simultaneously pledge that you're going to washington to fight with the Obama administration and to fight gridlock?

    Maybe the ND way involves cloning.

    (-7.62, -6.31), Blood type "O", Democratic-socialist, social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 02:49:03 PM PST

  •  Not sure if this has been mentioned but (4+ / 0-)

    IL state senator Kirk Dillard, a moderate who worked with Obama when they were colleagues, is facing a primary challenge from state Rep Chris Nybo. He is a first term rep, certainly not some dude, but it might be a race to watch next week.

  •  OR-AG (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, MichaelNY

    Rosenblum gets AFSCME's endorsement at the request of the attorneys of the AG's office who are in their union.  This race will probably be settled in the primary again, since there no Republican filed.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:16:16 PM PST

  •  email from the NC campaign against hate (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY
    An Elon University poll released today shows that a majority of North Carolinians oppose Amendment One. The nonpartisan poll revealed that 54.2% of North Carolinians surveyed either oppose or strongly oppose Amendment One, while only 37.8% were in any way supportive.

    I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate, perhaps that's what no one wants to see. -6.38, -4.15

    by James Allen on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 03:28:33 PM PST

  •  Don't know if PPP's amazing work was discussed... (6+ / 0-)

    ...regarding Ohio and Georgia this week, as I've been occupied helping my wife and new baby in the hospital, but if not it needs to be.

    I checked out the Real Clear chart on the last batch of polls and actual results in those GOP Presidential primaries, and I was stunned to see PPP nail both states for all four candidates!  No one else came as close.  This is stunning work, it's one thing to get the margin right in a two-way, even in a primary which is difficult in its own right, but to come within a point or two of every candidate's vote share in a 4-way is just shockingly good.  It's a feather in PPP's cap they should really promote as highlights of their work.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 04:25:42 PM PST

  •  Restore our Future (0+ / 0-)

    going up on the air in Illinois. Anyone think in addition to airing attack ads against Santorum they'll air a couple of anti-Obama ads as well?

    The political action committee backing Mitt Romney’s Republican presidential bid has purchased more than $900,000 in TV ad time, including about $250,000 in the Chicago market, as Illinois’ primary draws near.

    Restore Our Future, a so-called Super PAC, reported the buy in documents filed with the Federal Election Commission. The Super PAC has been influential in airing negative ads against Romney rival Rick Santorum.

    The filing indicates that similar ads against Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, are in the offing before Illinois’ March 20 primary. Super PACs backing Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have yet to purchase any TV time in Illinois, according to FEC documents.

    Romney ads began airing locally on Chicago broadcast stations this week, part of an initial $100,000 ad buy that also includes another $150,000 of cable TV time, according to a source familiar with political ad buying in the expensive Chicago market who is not authorized to speak publicly.

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

    "Viewing time at the zoo!" - America on the GOP Presidential primaries

    by ehstronghold on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 05:56:08 PM PST

  •  I'll be honest (0+ / 0-)

    With regards to Ciro Rodriguez, and for that matter to folks like Ann Kirkpatrick and Dan Maffei, I am a little biased against them. It's one thing to go down swinging in a tough district like then-Reps. Titus and Perriello did, but then-Reps. Rodriguez and Maffei ran lazy campaigns and then-Rep. Kirkpatrick got shown up pretty decisively.

    I know 2010 was a tough year and we lost a lot of good folks, but the ones who were caught napping or simply refused to calibrate their campaigns to be competitive for reelection in a tough cycle...well, I'm rather for giving some fresher faces a chance.

    Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 06:12:58 PM PST

    •  Ann Kirkpatrick and Ciro Rodriguez (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      were caught napping?

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 06:55:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I remember someone here (0+ / 0-)

        saying Kirkpatrick folded like a cheap suit and many agreeing with that sentiment.

      •  They ran lackluster campaigns (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't think then-Rep. Kirkpatrick had a shot after the first week or two of September. Meanwhile, then-Rep. Giffords had taken as many tough votes and she had about as tough a district, but I never stopped seeing her race as anything but a fight to the finish.

        After a point, Kirkpatrick just gave up. And after a point, then-Rep. Rodriguez just didn't do what it took to keep his seat. Gallego would be stronger against Rep. Canseco now, and I feel like Benally Baldenegro is worth taking a risk on because I think she's a scrapper in a way Kirkpatrick really just isn't.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:13:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Baldenegro would almost certainly be toast (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits, jncca, R30A, James Allen

          Do you really want to run a hardcore liberal who has never run for anything in an R+1 district? She may be a scrapper but so is Darcy Burner, and as in that district the Dems have an alternative in a proven vote-getter who is a better fit for the district.

          Re Giffords, she was an extraordinarily strong campaigner and saying another Dem wasn't as good as she was isn't saying much at all. That said, Kirkpatrick's performance was not that much worse than Giffords'. Kirkpatrick lost an R+4 district by 6. All else equal a Dem should lose by 8, so Kirkpatrick was +2 in a year that was very bad for Dems. Giffords' district is R+2 (listed R+4 but distorted by McCain) so all else equal a Dem should lose by 4 and she won by 1.5, so she was +5.5. Giffords also had a weaker opponent, as Kelly is much more of a schmuck than Gosar is. (Titus was about -3.5 which was not that bad considering how bad a year 2010 was for Dems. Russ Carnahan was something like -11.)

          SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:35:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  decisively? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Kirkpatrick's old district has a listed PVI of R+6, but this is distorted by McCain's run in 2008. It's about R+4, the same as the state overall. In a neutral year, a Dem should lose by 8. She lost by 6 in the mother of all red waves, when all but one of the Dems' statewide candidates lost by at least 10. That isn't that much worse than Perriello, who lost an R+5 district by 4, and it's better than Titus, who lost a D+2 district by about 0.6. Titus also benefitted from Reid's turnout organization while Kirkpatrick had no help.

      Kirkpatrick went down swinging in a tough district, and is well positioned to win it now that it's down to about R+1 and Gosar isn't running.

      SSP poster. 42, CA-5, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:11:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Even Titus, of whom I'm fond... (0+ / 0-)

        For her unwavering support of the LGBT community, I felt should have given way to Kihuen this time. NV-01 Democrats apparently disagreed.

        Then-Rep. Kirkpatrick had the power of incumbency, while virtually our entire statewide slate in 2010 was notably weak in Arizona. I don't think losing an R+4 by six points as an incumbent is a particularly strong performance, especially considering that now-Rep. Gosar is an idiot.

        Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Mar 09, 2012 at 07:16:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Shouldn't that be tagged ND-Sen? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    GOP Rep. Rick Berg is running for senate, I know he's forgettable... But it says Senate in the ad!  

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