This week, it was pretty much without dispute that there was some polling movement in Mitt Romney's direction. There is, of course, precedent for this: there is often a so-called primary "bounce" when a candidate finally clinches a nomination and his/her party coalesces around their new standard-bearer.
If it was a bounce, though, it may not have been a very substantial one. What's more, taking a wide-angle lens at the polling data, it looks like Barack Obama would still have to be considered no worse than a 50/50 shot to be re-elected.
And, as is often the case with campaign "bounces", this one proves to be ephemeral, an Obama re-election win could be by a healthy margin.
Downballot, we got a real good look at the money chase this week, as April 15th brought not only "Tax Day" (delayed a bit because the 15th fell on a Sunday), but also the FEC April Quarterly filing deadline. Daily Kos also asked our polling partners at PPP to look at Wisconsin, with decidedly mixed results.
All that (and more!) in this "whose bright idea was it to have Coachella on 4/20" edition of the Weekend Digest...
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
THE REPUBLICAN FIELD: Well, allow me to rephrase something I wrote here on the Weekend Digest last week: I thought we were going to miss this section of the Digest. But how can we miss something that refuses to go away?
Yep, contrary to my supposition (and rational thought, for that matter), we actually had a handful of national GOP primary polls. The statewide polls, of course, have been shelved, since the balance of the state contests are essentially foregone conclusions and no media outlet is going to blow part of its limited polling budget trying to gauge how much Mitt Romney is going to run up the score in their states.
On that national level, meanwhile, the theme is the same as it was last week: Mitt Romney is clearly the nominee, and clearly unspectacular in that role. The all-internet YouGov poll, perhaps most tellingly, doesn't even put Mittens north of 50 percent. This would be the textbook example of a "weak victory."
NATIONAL (CBS/NY Times): Romney 54, Gingrich 20, Paul 12
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Romney 57, Gingrich 19, Paul 18
NATIONAL (Pew): Romney 42, Santorum 21, Gingrich 13, Paul 13
NATIONAL (PPP): Romney 54, Gingrich 24, Paul 14
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney 49, Gingrich 20, Paul 13
LOOKING AHEAD TO NOVEMBER: Aside from the excellent week that he had in the two now-daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup (though survey demographics may explain quite a bit of that Romney magic), Mitt Romney also indisputably got a bump in the other national polls that knocked around this week.
With virtually no exceptions (our own SEIU/Daily Kos State of the Nation poll being a notable one), Mitt Romney was in a better position when paired against Barack Obama than he had been in the previous incarnation of that pollster's work. And, in the daily trackers, he led throughout, until Obama seized the lead again in this morning's Rasmussen tracker.
To some extent, that is to be expected. The virtual certainty of Mitt Romney's nomination was, inevitably, going to lead to a resigned acceptance by recalcitrant Republicans that would nudge his support up a few points. Added to that is the natural bump that comes from being the center of a few good news cycles, and that tightening of the presidential race is pretty well explained.
President Obama, however, can take heart in the fact that most of the pollsters (aside from the daily trackers) still had him leading, and a couple of them had him in front by comfortable margins.
Also, aside from one poll in New Hampshire, Obama did not have a bad week of state polling. The House of Ras (!) had him closing the gap in Missouri, and PPP had him up by five in Florida, a lead confirmed (albeit by a smaller margin) by the team at Fox News. What's more, when both Fox News AND the House of Ras say that a Democrat is winning in Ohio, that has to be a safe conclusion, amirite?
NATIONAL (CBS/New York Times): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (CNN/Opinion Research): Obama d. Romney (52-43)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters): Obama d. Romney (47-43)
NATIONAL (NBC/Wall St. Journal): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama d. Romney (49-45)
NATIONAL (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-46); Obama d. Romney w/Gary Johnson (L) (47-42-6); Obama d. Paul (47-44); Obama d. Gingrich (51-42)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
NATIONAL (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-42)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
FLORIDA (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-43)
FLORIDA (PPP): Obama d. Romney (50-45)
MISSOURI (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (48-45)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Dartmouth College): Romney d. Obama (44-42)
NEW YORK (NY1/Marist): Obama d. Romney (57-35)
OHIO (Fox News): Obama d. Romney (45-39)
OHIO (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (46-42)
WISCONSIN (PPP for Daily Kos): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: Probably more than any others, two polls this week caught the attention of Senate campaign watchers. One was the PPP poll out of Florida, which was enough for the crew here at Daily Kos Elections to flip our rating of that race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic." The catalyst was not only the double-digit lead for veteran Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson over the entire field, but the continued unraveling of the campaign of his most likely Republican foe: Rep. Connie Mack IV. When you were hailed as the party's campaign savior, and less than six months later, the party is looking for another savior, that's ... well ... bad (more on this a bit later).
The other big news, meanwhile, came from an internal poll released early in the week out of Indiana. In the Hoosier State, a poll for tea-infused challenger David Mourdock showed, for the first time, the challenger forging a lead over longtime incumbent GOP Sen. Dick Lugar. It was but a single point, of course, but it may well be telling that this poll dropped early in the week, and Senator Lugar did not contradict it with data of his own. Now, in fairness, that in itself is evidence of nothing. But if your challenger released a poll of him leading, and you had one showing that YOU still had the lead, wouldn't you share that with an enterprising reporter or two?!
FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 37; Nelson 47, Mike McCallister (R) 35; Nelson 48, George LeMieux (R) 34
IN-SEN—R (McLaughlin and Associates for Mourdock): Richard Mourdock 42, Sen. Dick Lugar 41
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): Sarah Steelman (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 42; Todd Akin (R) 48, McCaskill 43; John Brunner (R) 45, McCaskill 45
OH-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 44, Josh Mandel (R) 41
UT-SEN—D (Dan Jones and Associates): Pete Ashdown 39, Scott Howell 31
UT-SEN—R (Dan Jones and Associates): Orrin Hatch 61, Dan Liljenquist 21, Chris Herrod 4
UT-SEN—R (Mason Dixon): Sen. Orrin Hatch 62, Dan Liljenquist 20, Chris Herrod 6
WI-SEN (PPP for Daily Kos): Tommy Thompson (R) 47, Tammy Baldwin (D) 45; Baldwin 46, Mark Neumann (R) 45; Baldwin 47, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 40
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Substandard polling is not the only thing afflicting Republican Connie Mack IV in Florida. In a sure sign that the vultures are circling, local media is getting their fill of stories from unnamed GOP operatives openly fretting about his candidacy. A series of unflattering stories about his past (which led opponent George LeMieux to make the uproarious comparison of Mack to Charlie Sheen), coupled with an unspectacular campaign launch, seems to be fueling this wave of dissatisfaction. The funniest part—the stories this week hint that the GOP may be shopping for another candidate. One name being bandied about is state CFO Jeff Atwater. Unfortunately for the GOP, Atwater decided earlier today that he was not interested.
- Fans of Republican mayhem (and the potential downstream electoral benefits for the Democrats) had to lose their breath momentarily on Thursday, with news of a potentially damaging scandal in Indiana ensnaring Lugar challenger Richard Mourdock. The "scandal" was the kind of inside baseball stuff that isn't easily explained to the average voter, but if you say the candidate's name and "investigation" in conjunction often enough, that can be a problematic thing. The investigation centered around whether team Mourdock raided an email list meant for the shared use of all Indiana Republicans (there apparently was an admonition in place against using it for individual campaign purposes). Fortunately for Mourdock, he only spent one day twisting before the state party announced that no sanctions would be considered until after the primary in two weeks.
- After today's state conventions in Utah, it seems more likely than not that embattled Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch has dodged forced early retirement. Though the votes have not been tallied just yet (and I will update when they do), polls all week, plus the general scuttlebutt around the process, seemed to confirm that Hatch will land right at or just over the 60 percent delegate support threshold necessary to earn his party's nomination. His victory in November (against either Pete Ashdown or Scott Howell) would appear to be a near-lock, given the red terrain of the state and the presence of Mitt Romney atop the ballot.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: One of the recurring themes this week was Democratic challengers in Republican districts marking their territory. In MD-06, which was altered dramatically in redistricting, Democratic challenger John Delaney wanted to make it crystal clear that he should be perceived as the betting favorite to dispatch veteran Maryland Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R). Meanwhile, in the newly-open Illinois 13th, Democrat David Gill wanted to make it clear that he would start the campaign in pole position, no matter the eventual Republican nominee. He floated a trial heat pairing him against two different Republican prospects, and showed leads of 7-10 points against them.
On the primary elections front, we got new (and independent) data of one of the biggest battles on the card next Tuesday night: PA-12. And that race, if you put much stock in Susquehanna's new poll there, appears to be tightening up as we head into the final days of the campaign. Heck, it was not too long ago that Mark Critz felt compelled to release an internal poll showing him DOWN ten points, perhaps as a way of fending off the assumption that the race was hopeless. Now, this new poll puts him down just four points, with a fair amount of the vote still undecided. Surprisingly, there was no new numbers out of that uber-competitive PA-17 Democratic tilt. To reiterate a favorite conspiracy theory I broached on the Lugar race, the fact that challenger Matt Cartwright dropped a poll showing him out in front of incumbent Rep. Tim Holden last week, and no polls came out this week, does not fill me with confidence for the incumbent.
AZ-02/AZ-08 (National Research-R): Jesse Kelly (R) 49, Ron Barber (D) 45; Barber 42, Martha McSally (R) 42
FL-22—D (Anzalone Liszt for Frankel): Lois Frankel 46, Kristin Jacobs 16
IL-13 (Victoria Research for Gill): David Gill (D) 40, Jerry Clarke (R) 33; Gill 41, Rodney Davis (R) 31
MD-06 (Garin-Hart-Yang for Delaney): John Delaney (D) 48, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R) 39
PA-12—D (Susquehanna Research): Jason Altmire 43, Mark Critz 39
TN-03—R (North Star Opinion Research for Mayfield): Scottie Mayfield 34, Rep. Chuck Fleischmann 25, Weston Wamp 25
UT-01—D (Dan Jones and Associates): Donna McAleer 42, Ryan Combe 37
UT-02—D (Dan Jones and Associates): Jay Seegmiller 43, Dean Collinwood 13, Mike Small 7
UT-02—R (Dan Jones and Associates): Chris Stewart 34, Dave Clark 21, Jason Buck 6, Cherilyn Eagar 5, Bob Fuehr 3, Howard Wallack 3
UT-03—D (Dan Jones and Associates): Soren Simonsen 28, Richard Clark 19
UT-04—R (Dan Jones and Associates): Mia Love 38, Carl Wimmer 25, Stephen Sandstrom 18, Jay Cobb 5
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The next election on the 2012 campaign docket was clarified on Tuesday, with a special primary election to select the nominees to take the seat of resigning Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords in what is now AZ-08, but will become AZ-02 after this November. As was largely expected, Giffords' 2010 Republican nominee, young tea party devotee Jesse Kelly, won the Republican nomination for the right to take on Democrat Ron Barber, a longtime Giffords staffer. A Green Party candidate also qualified for the general election, which will take place in June.
- Not long after last weekend's digest was posted, the rumors began flying that something that had long been suspected was about to take place. Amid ceaseless stories of a moribund campaign, longtime veteran Democratic Rep. Ed Towns announced he would not seek re-election in NY-08. His decision came as little surprise, as Towns appeared to be a non-entity on the campaign trail despite a legitimate primary challenger in the person of state assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries. Jeffries almost certainly moves to the head of the class here, though he must contend with the eccentricities of city councilman Charles Barron in a Democratic primary. Victory in that primary will be tantamount to election in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.
- As for those campaigns coming up in November, only the most idealistic (or the most naive) elections observer would minimize the role that campaign cash plays in the battle for the balance of power in Congress. With that in mind, your pals here at Daily Kos Elections have put together this handy guide cataloguing the first quarter FEC reports for all of the competitive races nationwide. Be sure to check it out!
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Wisconsin was the main event on the state-level card this week, though Democrats might've been a bit disheartened at the polls (conducted on behalf of Daily Kos by our partners at PPP) showed. The series of polls had three conclusions: (a) Republican Gov. Scott Walker has bounced off of his polling floor, and has narrow leads over the entirety of the potential Democratic field; (b) Republican Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch also holds a lead (albeit a relative modest one at 46-40) over Democrat Mahlon Mitchell; (c) the Democrats do not, at present, hold leads in any of the four state Senate recall elections on the docket in June.
Some caveats, though, do apply. The Democrats, because of the 2011 recalls, only need to pick up a single Senate seat to claim the chamber, and one of the four Republican incumbents is clinging to a two-point lead. Kleefisch is well under 50 percent, and Mitchell has another two months to define himself and his opponent. Furthermore, while Walker may be looking better now than he has in recent polling, part of that might be attributable to the Democratic primary. If Walker does have a potentially career-saving stroke of fortune, it is that Democrats will have but four weeks to put aside any lingering animosity and coalesce around their nominee. That is an atypically short amount of time to do so.
NC-GOV—D (Tulchin Research-D): Bob Etheridge 32, Walter Dalton 22, Bill Faison 4
PA-AG—D (Zata|3 for Kane): Kathleen Kane 42, Patrick Murphy 33
UT-GOV—R (Dan Jones and Associates): Gov. Gary Herbert 61, Morgan Philpot 12, David Kirkham 10, Ken Sumsion 5
WI-GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 50, Tom Barrett (D) 45; Walker 50, Kathleen Falk (D) 43; Walker 51, Doug LaFollette (D) 40; Walker 50, Kathleen Vinehout (D) 38
WI-GOV—D (PPP for Daily Kos): Tom Barrett 38, Kathleen Falk 24, Doug LaFollette 9, Kathleen Vinehout 6
WI-GOV—D (Garin Hart Yang for Barrett): Tom Barrett 41, Kathleen Falk 27, Doug LaFollette 7, Kathleen Vinehout 4
WI-LT GOV (PPP for Daily Kos): Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) 46, Mahlon Mitchell (D) 40
WI-SD-13 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Scott Fitzgerald (R) 54, Lori Compas (D) 40
WI-SD-21 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Van Wangaard (R) 48, John Lehman (D) 46
WI-SD-23 (PPP for Daily Kos): Sen. Terry Moulton (R) 51, Kristin Dexter (D) 41
WI-SD-29 (PPP for Daily Kos): Jerry Petrowski (R) 51, Donna Seidel (D) 37
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- The endorsement game continued this week in that hotly contested Democratic primary in Wisconsin. Former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk racked up a huge one roughly a week ago, when she snared the support of the state AFL-CIO, while Tom Barrett countered with the endorsement of Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore.
- For a long time this year in Missouri, we have heard that the GOP establishment might prefer businessman Dave Spence, but the grassroots/base crowd have taken a shine to Bill Randles. Polls in Mizzou have borne that out, but you can't run on nothing, despite Randles' best efforts, apparently. Rarely do two leading candidates for a statewide office have such dramatically disparate funding reports. Spence raised $593K, and has over a million-and-a-half on-hand. Randles, on his end, raised $35K, and has a cool five grand on-hand. For those wondering about the Democratic incumbent: Gov. Jay Nixon raised $ 1.7 million, and has just a hair of $6 million on-hand.
- Democratic foes of Texas Governor (and dramatic presidential candidate failure) Rick Perry might want to invest in popcorn futures. It might seem a little early for 2014 headlines, but this would be an awesome one: GOP state attorney general Greg Abbott is very publicly flirting with a 2014 gubernatorial bid. With eight figures already in the kitty (that is not a typo), he'd be formidable. The problem (or, for Democrats, delightful detail)? The current occupant (Perry) has also publicly flirted with the idea of an unprecedented fourth full term as governor. Whee!
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST “AIR BALL” OF THE WEEK AWARD
After a brief flirtation with bipartisanship (last week's nominees included two Democrats and two Republicans), we return to form here at Team Air Ball. Four fitting nominees, all Republicans, vying for the honor of the biggest campaign or politically-related boo-boo of the week. Despite the stiff competition, alas, you can only vote once:
Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA): Remember the deluge of snickering news coverage when then-Senate contender Martha Coakley (D) implied that Red Sox legend Curt Schilling (a prominent GOP endorser of Scott Brown) was a Yankees fan? How politically tone-deaf could she be, right? Fast forward two years. And now-Senator Scott Brown accepts a maxed-out contribution from ... none other than the president of the New York Yankees. What's next? Begging for cash from Jerry Buss, owner of the Los Angeles Lakers?
Family Research Council head honcho Tony Perkins (R-LA): Perkins is a tough call, because he is not, strictly defined, in the midst of an electoral campaign. But when you reach this level of awesome, exceptions must be made. There has been a lot of theorizing about the burgeoning scandal involving the Secret Service and the conduct of some of their agents advancing the trip to Latin America. But Perkins takes the case for the kind of stretch that even Gumby would admire. Perkins' take? It's all because gays are in the military now. No, really, that's what he said.
Senate candidate John Raese (R-WV): You have to be a special kind of batshit crazy to equate a county placing "smoke free" stickers on buildings to Hitler putting the Star of David on Jewish citizens. Raese is just that caliber of batshit. What's more: when asked about that statement (the equivalent of "are you SURE you want to make that analogy?"), he didn't walk it back—he freaking embraced it! Congratulations on your re-election, Senator Joe Manchin!
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney (R-MA): In the lofty atmosphere of "Air Ball"-land, Romney has repeatedly suffered from the same malady—so many suitable moments, but you can only pick ONE. So ... after much deliberation, this week's offering: going to a closed factory and blaming it on Barack Obama, and leaving the press to discover the inevitable punchline—it closed in the Spring of 2008. Under then-president George W. Bush. But, hey, because of Obama, it's even more closed than it was before! Or ... er ... something.