I was looking at HoosierD42's most recent "Doubling the House" diary when I noticed a link to this diary he did earlier on doubling Nevada's House delegation. It really intrigued me. In fact, I was so intrigued that I ultimately felt compelled to go to DRA and try it myself.
So here are the results.
In doubling the number of Congressional Districts, strange things happen. For one, Washoe County finally gets its own Congressional District! And that's where I started drawing.
NV-01 (Ocean Blue)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58.5%
McCain (R) 39.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 39%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 40%
Race Rating: Likely Democratic if Mike Haley runs, Leans Democratic otherwise
NV-02 (Green)
US-Pres 2008
McCain (R) 56.4%
Obama (D) 41.1%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 57%
Harry Reid (D) 36%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 69%
Rory Reid (D) 25%
Race Rating: Safe Republican
The good news for Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) here is that his district (NV-02) becomes a much redder as it shrinks and loses urban Reno & Sparks. It's not like he really has to worry too much in real life, but in this scenario he can finally become entrenched. Even though Carson City and other Reno exurbs may be trending Democratic over time, the rural territory is still so strongly Republican that this district shouldn't be competitive any time soon.
The bad news for Nevada Republicans, on the other hand, is that the new NV-01 is a much different story. Now that the urban core and inner suburbs of Washoe County finally get their own district, they will have much more say in Congress... And what they have to say probably isn't what Nevada Republicans want to listen to.
Still, Democrats can't get too giddy here. After all, this has been ancestrally Republican turf that only started to turn away from them at the top of the ticket last decade. As you can see with the NV-Gov numbers, Washoe voters often still vote for Republicans down-ballot. But if popular Washoe County Sheriff Mike Haley (who, by the way, is a Democrat) runs here, then he may very well take this seat completely off the table for the Nevada GOP. Probably even if soon-to-be State Senator Debbie Smith (D-Sparks) runs, she shouldn't have too much trouble winning. The only Republican who stands a good chance of winning is Reno Mayor Bob Cashell, but at this point it's extremely unlikely he can win a Republican primary for anything (since he endorsed Harry Reid in 2010).
Let's move south now to see how the "double trouble" dynamic changes there.
NV-03 (Purple)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49.4%
McCain (R) 48.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 50%
Harry Reid (D) 44%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
Rory Reid (D) 37%
Race Rating: Tossup if John Lee runs, Leans Republican otherwise
NV-04 (Red)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 60.2%
McCain (R) 38.0%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 58%
Sharron Angle (R) 38%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 50%
Brian Sandoval (R) 47%
Race Rating: Safe Democratic
NV-05 (Gold)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 70.0%
McCain (R) 27.7%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 68%
Sharron Angle (R) 27%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 61%
Brian Sandoval (R) 35%
Race Rating: Safe Democratic
Ordinarily, a seat like the NV-03 drawn above is incredibly difficult for Democrats to win (despite Obama winning there). Between ticket splitting up north and "under-voting" (only voting for President, then quitting) down south, there are so many challenges to tackle. But if Blue Dog State Senator John Lee (D-North Las Vegas) runs, he can perhaps make the incredible happen. And hey, why shouldn't he? Local progressives are now mounting a primary challenge in his State Senate race (in what's become a safe Democratic seat). If he runs in the new NV-03, then all of sudden his liabilities turn into assets and he transforms from a Democratic "black sheep" to a Democratic hero.
However, can Danny Tarkanian dash his dreams? While he's not exactly the strongest campaigner, he may not have to be to hold this kind of seat for Team Red. Even against Lee, he may have a shot. And against a more traditional Clark County Dem, he's probably the favorite. And if a stronger candidate, like Assembly Member Scott Hammond (R-Las Vegas), runs, then Republicans can breathe even more easily.
While NV-03 becomes a more Republican favored seat, NV-04 moves in the opposite direction. In becoming a Clark County only seat that stretches from upscale yet swingy Summerlin to Democratic dominant (and minority supermajority) West Las Vegas to make a 60% Obama district that should only become even easier for Democrats to hold in the future. (Look here to see what I've said about demographic and political trends here in Nevada.) Steven Horsford can most definitely hold this seat. And if/when he moves on to even bigger and better things, there's a great bench waiting in the wings, especially with Clark County Commissioners Lawrence Weekly (D-West Las Vegas) and Larry Brown (D-Northwest Las Vegas).
And then, there's NV-05. Now that we've doubled our representation, we can finally have a compact VRA Latin@ district! It's now 50.1% Latin@ VAP, and it's easily the most Democratic district in the state at 70% Obama 2008 and 68% (Harry) Reid 2010. It's obviously tailor-made for State Senator Ruben Kihuen (D-Las Vegas). He may not actually live here, but this is most likely where he runs. And if for some reason he doesn't, Assembly Member (and rising star) Lucy Flores (D-North Las Vegas) can easily take this.
NV-06 (Teal)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51.1%
McCain (R) 46.9%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 49%
Harry Reid (D) 46%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 58%
Rory Reid (D) 38%
Race Rating: Leans Republican
NV-07 (Silver)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59.3%
McCain (R) 38.7%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 48%
Brian Sandoval (R) 48%
Race Rating: Likely Democratic
NV-08 (Slate Blue)
US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 61.5%
McCain (R) 36.3%
Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 59%
Sharron Angle (R) 36%
Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 52%
Brian Sandoval (R) 44%
Race Rating: Safe Democratic
In this "double trouble map", Joe Heck actually lucks out in that he's placed in the new NV-06 that's dominated by the more GOP friendly upscale Henderson communities of MacDonald Ranch, Anthem, and Seven Hills. Although Democratic friendly Silverado Ranch and Mountain's Edge are also in NV-06, they're lower turnout and more prone to the "under-voting" I described above. Unless Heck draws an incredibly strong challenger (perhaps Henderson Mayor Andy Hafen?), he probably has a little more breathing room here than he will otherwise have in real life.
Even if NV-06 may be a bit of a downer, NV-07 shouldn't. It takes in the once fast growing (and still rapidly Democratic trending) Southwest Vegas suburbs (like Rhodes Ranch), and combines them with the more established and firmly Democratic Spring Valley and Western Las Vegas neighborhoods just west of I-15 and between CC-215 & US-95. As I mentioned in NV-06, the Southwest Vegas area is prone to turnout troubles, so Nevada Democrats will have to keep an eye on that. Otherwise, Andrew Martin (who briefly ran in NV-03 in 2008 before turning to a run in Assembly District 13 in which he came insanely close to unseating an entrenched GOP incumbent) can become Nevada's very first openly LGBT member of Congress!
And finally, we have NV-08. This is most likely where Dina Titus lands. Although it's a tad bit more Republican than the NV-01 where she's running in real life, she shouldn't have any problems here. And again, the trend in both Henderson's Green Valley and Paradise (the unincorporated "East Side" just beyond The Strip) is looking excellent for Democrats. And if Dina ever decides to step aside, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani (D-Downtown Las Vegas), Assembly Members April Mastroluca (D-Henderson) & Elliot Anderson (D-Paradise), and Henderson City Council Member Sam Bateman (who may live just outside the district boundary, but has quite a few Henderson Ward 4 constituents here) are all strong contenders to fill her shoes here.
So there you have it. Believe it or not, Nevada Democrats can very well make out like bandits in this "Double Trouble Map" without having to behave as such! No really, no "bacon-manders" are required to create 3 solid Democratic Clark County districts (NV-04, NV-05, & NV-08), a 4th Clark County district that's quickly moving in our direction (NV-07), a Washoe County district that's ripe for the picking (NV-01), and even two typically GOP leaning seats that aren't totally out of reach (NV-03 & NV-06). In a neutral cycle, this map probably lands at a 5D-3R split. But in a Democratic wave year and with the right candidates running in the above mentioned swing seats, a 7D-1R landslide is far from impossible.