Skip to main content

Three weeks ago I looked at the swing state polling and found that President Barack Obama led by landslide numbers. That picture is little changed today.

Again, I'm taking the poll composite from TPM's Poll Tracker, including Rasmussen polling—which gives the GOP an unwarranted edge, but gives us a worst-case scenario picture. (For example, while the numbers below show Florida tied, taking out Rasmussen would give us a 47-44 Obama lead.)

We haven't had new numbers from Colorado since the last time we checked in, and Iowa's results are now three months old. Surprised no one has polled more recently.

Three weeks ago, Obama had double-digit leads in five states (CO, MI, NH, NM, WI). Today, that's down to two states. Romney narrowed the gap in nine states, while Obama narrowed the gap or increased his margin in three states. Most of those changes were slight. But in any case, it's fair to say that wrapping up the GOP nomination gave Romney somewhat of a bump.

His problem, however, is that he was so far behind Obama that this bump hasn't gotten him that close to actually winning these states. And, in fact, Romney's standing in both Arizona and Missouri has similarly eroded. In fact, if you tally up the states in which the candidates lead by five points or more, Obama already has enough to win the election—273 electoral votes to Romney's 180.

And if you simply go by polling leads, the map is identical to last week's: a massive Obama 341-197 drubbing.

Electoral map, Obama 341 electoral votes, Romney 197

Originally posted to kos on Wed May 02, 2012 at 11:35 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

GainesT1958, paradox, Angie in WA State, buffalo soldier, TXdem, fcvaguy, Kaina PDX, daninoah, madmsf, Avila, Emerson, Shockwave, donna in evanston, Andrew C White, devtob, HarlemUSA, exNYinTX, Morgana, cskendrick, farmerhunt, oceanview, Alna Dem, Quege, jdmorg, Redfire, tomephil, edrie, ManhattanMan, American Zapatista, pat bunny, ranger995, wdrath, samoashark, peterj911, mungley, KayCeSF, tomjones, sebastianguy99, Gowrie Gal, vcmvo2, Ckntfld, JanetT in MD, democracy inaction, citizenx, Clem Yeobright, PSzymeczek, Sun Tzu, Fury, sofia, Overseas, coolbreeze, xanthippe2, begone, dannyinla, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, cas2, edwardssl, SciFiGuy, Kimball Cross, dopper0189, HoundDog, Dvalkure, jenthor, SherriG, Joe Cooper, JVolvo, bleeding heart, el cid, CA Nana, Hedwig, Temmoku, markthshark, Babylon, bear83, camlbacker, puakev, Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle, OIL GUY, Wreck Smurfy, Rumarhazzit, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, BasharH, gizmo59, Sixty Something, NewDealer, bythesea, elwior, ajr111240, Therapy, Parthenia, Karl Rover, psilocynic, lissablack, legendmn, juca, bobatkinson, StuHunter, followyourbliss, elziax, hyper, Keith Pickering, Tortmaster, Larsstephens, tash123, Railfan, hotdamn, Laurilei, NJpeach, fidellio, stunzeed, BenderRodriguez, Lost and Found, JoanMar, gulfgal98, sharonsz, ericlewis0, cocinero, Actbriniel, Onomastic, annieli, jardin32, Mr MadAsHell, StellaRay, OhioNatureMom, GrogInOhio, dle2GA, BarackStarObama, Vatexia, SoCalSal, zenox, thejoshuablog, DEMonrat ankle biter, ParkRanger, joelgp, RhodaA, TheLizardKing, Siri, We Won, charliehall2, IndieGuy, foucaultspendulum, The Nephew, Deep Texan, rukidingme, JGibson, hardart, bewareofme, MartyM, doroma, sexgenderbody, redstella, databob, nomandates, Dancun74, JayRaye, IamNotaKochsucker, parsonsbeach, OjaiValleyCali, InfiniteThoughts

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site