Skip to main content

Pennsylvania: From 1st place to 4th Place
Who is the new #1?!

For regular readers of these descents into electoral junkie-dom on Sunday Kos, they will note that this is the third installment in a series to determine, somewhat subjectively, what states will be the ones to grab the lion's share of the attention come November. It all started in the summer of 2011, here on Sunday Kos, when I attempted to quantify the level of interest we could expect in the 2012 elections for each state. The top three states were largely where you would expect: Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. But Montana cracked the top 10, as well.

Clearly a lot was going to change as time went on. The redistricting process would play itself out, Senate and gubernatorial elections would have been firmed up, and the race for the White House started to create a more coherent electoral map. Thus, the top 10 states for round #2 of this exercise varied by quite a bit. Montana ceded its spot in the top 10, and California shot up into the top three on the strength of a dozen competitive House races.

So, now, with the clock now tricking down within six months of Election Day, it is time again to revisit the top 10, which has again changed quite substantially.

Before we head through the top 10, however, let's reset the criteria, which has changed a bit courtesy of (yay!) the inclusion of our own race ratings in the downballot races (ratings you can find here):

As always happens, we can expect Barack Obama's re-election to consume the lion's share of the oxygen in this campaign cycle. So, it is weighted the heaviest. Each state's competitiveness was measured by race ratings offered by Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg (since we have not yet constructed our own presidential race ratings here at Daily Kos Elections). Eight points are awarded for a toss-up, four points for a state described as leaning to one party or the other, two points for a state described as likely to be one party or the other, and one point for a state described as a safe win. The average rating will then be multiplied by a factor related to the state's electoral votes. States with 3-9 electoral votes are multiplied by one, states with 10-19 electoral votes are multiplied by two, and so on.

With Senate control potentially at a knife's edge, the upper chamber in Congress will deservedly get a lot of attention. Thus, our own race ratings here at Daily Kos Elections were used to determine how close each Senate race should be followed. Once again, if a race is defined as a toss-up, it will be worth eight points. If a race is defined as "leaning" to a party (even if it is not the incumbent party), it will be worth four points. A race defined as "likely" to go to a certain party gets two points. A "safe" seats gets a single point. Thus, if a state has a "Leans Democratic" Senate race, its rating for the Senate would add up to four points.

Count me among those who think House control could also be very easily at a knife's edge. Because it is possible for one state to have multiple races in the mix, the point values here will dissipate a bit: four points for a toss-up, two points for a leaner, and one point for a "likely" rating. The cumulative total for all of a state's races will be factored in, meaning one state could generate well over four points (indeed, the national leader, California, tallied 33 points in the House alone).

For now, this will mean just the gubernatorial races ... For the sake of simplicity, let's offer up the same point values as the Senate races.

With the criteria set, head beneath the fold to find out who makes the top 10. There are two entries in the top 10, and one of them makes its debut, as it happens, in the top five.

Before we hit the top 10, a shout out is due to the now seven electoral entities that tied for last place. What that means, in effect, is that they lack a Senate or gubernatorial campaign, and also lack any competitive House races. On top of all that, their electoral votes are projected to be safe for either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama. So, with all that in mind, welcome the state of Oregon to a list that already included Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana and Washington, D.C. If you live in those states, start finding a local referendum or a downballot race. It might be one of those rare opportunities where no oxygen will be sucked up further up the ballot.

The two states that barely cracked the top 10 last time bid their farewells to the top 10 this time around. Not much has changed in Illinois, but since the presidential race is a foregone conclusion, and there are no Senate or gubernatorial races, this one slides just outside the top 10 (into a tie for 12th place). More precipitous, however, has been the slide in Missouri. In 6th place last summer, the Show-Me State slid to a tie for 9th place in January, and now dropped all the way down to a tie for 16th place. I blame this, in part, on the tandem of Rothenberg and Cook, who stubbornly continue to see this state as locked down for Mitt Romney. But the declining interest in the gubernatorial race here (where incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon looks safer and safer) also played a role in their slide.

With a hail and a farewell to the departed, let us now move on to those most deserving of states, the "States to Watch on Election Day 2012" top 10:

10th: NEW HAMPSHIRE (last time: NR) with 20 points

For the first time, smallish New Hampshire cracks the top 10, and with no small amount of justification. Not only is the state expected to be awfully close on Election Day at the top of the ticket, but the state boasts a coin-flip open seat race to replace Democrat John Lynch (which has tightened noticeably since January) and both Republican House incumbents are in varying degrees of peril. Plus, though this wasn't counted in the tally, they also boast 400 state legislative races, too!

t-8th: NEVADA (last time: 8) and NORTH CAROLINA (last time: 5) with 22 points

Nevada has been a steady presence in the bottom half of the top ten since the inception of this list. Despite their rather small stature (just six electoral votes), the state is bound to get a ton of attention from both Obama and Romney between now and November. On top of that, the balance of power in the Senate may come down to this late-closing state and the coin-flip race between Republican rookie Sen. Dean Heller and Democrat Shelley Berkley. Add a pair of closely-contested House races, and Nevada has it all. Meanwhile, North Carolina continues to slide a bit, mainly because what seemed like a raft of close House races is now slowed to a trickle, with many once-competitive contests now seen as foregone conclusions. Still, the state might be one of the biggest presidential prizes (at 15 electoral votes and polls showing genuine competitiveness). Plus, the open-seat gubernatorial election might lean to Republican Pat McCrory, but Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton surely has a puncher's chance.

7th: VIRGINIA (last time: 7) with 26 points

Virginia's status as a toss-up on the presidential level, plus the heft that comes with 13 electoral votes, will probably ensure its continued status in the top 10. Indeed, that status is even more secure when you factor in what is arguably the highest-profile Senate race in the country (or, at a minimum, on a par with Brown-Warren in Massachusetts). Virginia could be a top-three state, were it not for the fact that the GOP gerrymander of the state robbed the Commonwealth of any real semblance of competitive races for the House.

t-5th: OHIO (last time: 5) and NEW YORK (last time: NR) with 27 points

Here is another state that went sliding down the charts courtesy of Republican gerrymandering. The Ohio-mander, for all intents and purposes, robbed us of a series of possibly majority-making House races. However, Ohio is going nowhere in the top 10, because it still has a legitimately competitive Senate race (which seems to be creeping in the direction of becoming more, not less, competitive). And, of course, it is everyone's consensus pick as a firewall state for both presidential candidates, neither of whom can afford to piss away the state's 18 electoral votes. New York's electoral votes, meanwhile, are on lockdown for the president. The Senate race is also a lock for the Democrats. So, how did the Empire State find its way into the top 10? The answer, simply put, is found in its role in defining the balance of power in the House. For the first time in a long time, the path to a House majority may run through the states of New York and California. Our Daily Kos Elections House race ratings count no less than a dozen competitive races in New York, with both sides having to defend seats that have historically been safe for them.

4th: PENNSYLVANIA (last time: 1) with 28 points

The Keystone State slides out of the top spot, largely based on what has to be viewed as a far less competitive House environment. Some recruiting failures, as well as the residual effects of what was a pretty powerful GOP gerrymander, led to only one tossup, and four races with any competitive potential at all. A tad mournful, considering that there were no less than eight districts with single digit margins in the past few elections. That, plus the fact that Barack Obama is in incrementally better shape here than it seemed in the winter, slides Pennsylvania down the chart.

3rd: WISCONSIN (last time: 3) with 32 points

As strange as it sounds, Wisconsin is virtually guaranteed to slide down at least 3-4 positions by the next time this top 10 list is generated. That's because one of the highest profile electoral events in the Badger State is coming up next month, rather than November. The toss-up gubernatorial recall election pitting Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democrat Tom Barrett in a rematch of their 2010 electoral battle will have everyone's attention in just over three weeks. November is not without its intrigue, as well. The state is still on both campaigns' radar screens, plus there is a very closely fought open seat Senate contest where a teabagging could change the calculus of the race enormously. Keep both eyes on Wisconsin for the next 23 days, and then be sure to keep one eye on the Badger State after that.

2nd: CALIFORNIA (last time: 2) with 40 points

There seems to be no chance that Barack Obama will lose the state's 55 electoral votes. Orly freaking Taitz may be the GOP nominee to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein. So, why the heck is the Golden State in the runner-up position? Because neither party will win the majority in the House without it. Daily Kos Elections considers 15 of the state's 53 House districts to be competitive, and we count four of them to be tossup races. If the Democrats want Speaker Pelosi, they need to clean up here, and take full advantage of clean shots at previously safe incumbents like Brian Bilbray, Gary Miller and Jeff Denham (Dan Lungren is also imperiled, but he has been in harm's way before). However, Democrats are not without their own targets, trying to shake off some rust and battle in competitive districts. Keep an eye out for people like John Garamendi and Lois Capps, who are going to have to battle in turf far more hostile than to which they are accustomed.

1st: FLORIDA (last time: 4) with 41 points

Florida ... Florida ... Florida. After briefly ceding the top spot to Pennsylvania (in part because of uncertainty over the landscape of the House), Florida is back, and could conceivably be back to stay. Even with the Senate race falling out of "tossup" territory with the partial implosion of GOP frontrunner Connie Mack, the Sunshine State still graces the top spot. There is no closer state nationally, at least in terms of recent polling, at the top of the ballot. The last two polls in the Sunshine State had Mitt Romney up by a single point, and had Barack Obama ahead by a single point. Add to that a House map that actually enhanced the electoral competitiveness of the state, and we have a bunch of reasons to watch Florida in six months' time.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Isn't there some "problems" in NC now? (5+ / 0-)

    I have read just so many articles and have seen so much about how the DNC is mulling over changing the venue for the national convention away from North Carolina because of the problems the governor has had and is having there and because of their most recent affirmation at the voting booth against same-sex marriage.

    Does that factor into the mix here at all?

  •  IEM has the GOP at 75% to hold the House (0+ / 0-)

    Iowa Electronic Markets has the GOP at 75% to hold the House.

    I like optimism, but hmm. You tell me.

    Take the fight to them. Don't let them bring it to you. - Harry S Truman

    by jgoodfri on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:13:00 PM PDT

    •  Not a reliable barometer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z, cybersaur

      other than Rasmussen the generic congressional ballot has been leaning dem.

    •  His Orangeness (0+ / 0-)

      put his party at 66% recently, no?

    •  Speaking of Iowa, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White

      close potus race and two marquee house matchups.

      The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

      by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 06:42:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  close presdential race??? (0+ / 0-)

         don't think so...

        •  Last poll had (0+ / 0-)

          Romney up 2, and it's a state where, thanks to the caucuses, the GOP has pulled ahead in registration.  And Bush won it in 2004 and it was tight in 2000.  Last cycle was an anomaly, as shown by the 2010 defeat of Culver by Branstand.  

          You might be right at the end of the day, but the two campaigns also think it'll be a tight one.

          The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

          by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:08:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

            •  RV's, not LV's (0+ / 0-)

              don't get me wrong, Obama should win, but he'll have an easier time with quite a few states on the list than Iowa.

              The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

              by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:19:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  How many times does it need to be told... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew, sebastianguy99, Jahiegel

                Likely Voters this far out isn't worth a maggot infested pile of crap.

                Everyone's all "Ooooh, we need likely voter polls, because these registered voter ones are too off base."  Well, we don't know who's likely to vote more right now, Republicans or Democrats, and won't know until late summer at the earliest.  THAT is when you will start to see many more likely voter polls, and only then will they mean anything.

                •  Fair enough, (0+ / 0-)

                  but if that's so, a poll with cross tabs showing 90% of Ds voting for Obama but 79% of Rs voting for Romney probably should be regarded as less than the gospel truth.  As you say, it's a ways out.  (I also think Iowa might be one of the few states where LVs should be polled, as they're more familiar with the candidates.)

                  Attitude aside, you doubt Iowa will be tight?  Trees, meet forest.

                  The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

                  by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:44:56 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Counting the PPP poll... (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew, sebastianguy99, pademocrat

                    makes more sense than cuddling up to a 3 month old poll that was taken just after the primaries in the state, and the many months of Republican commercials that came before it.

                    No, I don't think Iowa will be within 4 points.  Romney doesn't run well in the mid-west.  He's a wall-street Republican and not a culture warrior like the Republicans in Iowa like.  I don't even see him being as well liked there as McCain was, but I see him as getting about the same amount of support.

                    Sorry for the attitude, but I keep seeing this push for likely voter polls this far out by a lot of people, and it just doesn't make any sense.  However, yes, I do suppose if a state were to benefit from it, it would be Iowa... or possibly New Hampshire.

                    •  a lot of the PPP poll, (0+ / 0-)

                      both topline numbers and cross-tabs, incl the one I mentioned but also Obama's favorability, didn't pass the smell test to me, in light of the state's demographics.  I was speculating as to why that might be, and the data set seemed the most elegant explanation.

                      I think Romney is doing his level best to become a culture warrior, and nationally he's polling quite well amount evangelicals.

                      In the interest of full disclosure, I'm taking a break to work on the campaign, and Iowa is where the wheel stopped in my case.  I have a vested interest in it being close but also in being a blowout.  I think it'll be in the vicinity of 4 -- was one of the first states Obama visited since last week's big launch.  But I am going to assume we're losing Iowa by 2 until after the SoS certifies the elector slate.

                      The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

                      by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 08:21:34 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  It's a firewall state (0+ / 0-)

                        so I hope it isn't too close, I think it will be as it has been for several elections; a few points in the dem's favor in relation to the national margin.

                        •  I agree with that, (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:

                          I don't see any new pickups this time, and I'm pessimistic about Indiana.  But I also think this time around, Iowa will be tighter than states like NM, NC, CO, NC, and VA.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida will probably decide this thing as always, but if Obama does poorly in OH and/or FL, (PA is must win), Iowa could be decisive, whether it's a win by 1 or by 5.

                          I saw a 538 poll that added up margin of victory in descending order to get to 270, which was Colorado the last time.  This time it could well be Iowa, in scenarios where even if a Virginia is closer, it wouldn't matter.

                          I'm on the voter protection, not polling side, though, but me aside, there's real talent handling that in Iowa.  A guy from Colorado 08 is running it, and the VP team probably won that state from the CO Springs sheriff.

                          The study of law was certainly a strange discipline. -- Yukio Mishima

                          by Loge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 09:08:35 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

  •  I'm putting on my prognosticator's cap (7+ / 0-)

    I predict that if there is going to be any voting "funny business" like in the 2000 (Florida) and 2004 (Ohio) elections, it's going to happen in either Pennsylvania or Colorado.  I've just got a feeling about this.

    We'll see what happens.

    "Only when the last tree has died, the last river has been poisoned, and the last fish has been caught will we realize we cannot eat money." --Cree proverb

    by TigerMom on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:13:05 PM PDT

  •  California gerrymandering (14+ / 0-)

    For decades California Republicans have worked to create a reapportionment process outside the legislature because they assumed that once the lines were drawn by an independent commission, they would win a goodly number of seats.  

    Democrats largely agreed with them as they fought each of the 8 ballot measures the Republicans proposed over 40 years.

    Finally, the Republicans got a reapportionment initiative passed and guess what.  The GOP is going to lose big time.  I don't really have an explanation, but its a wonderful surprise and I'm delighted.

    •  Unintended consequences (10+ / 0-)

      Yes, be careful what you wish for.  The Republicans even have the state senate map on the November ballot because redistricting make it look VERY possible the Democrats might have a 2/3 majority, meaning a de facto end to Prop 13.  Better yet, the 2012 election, per the California Supreme Court, has to be according to the map the Republicans hate.

      -7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent.

      by Dave in Northridge on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:23:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The courts redistricted NY (6+ / 0-)

      and came up with a plan with over a dozen swing districts. It is easy to envision a close to evenly divided House delegation from NY -- or a 22-3 split in our favor.

      •  Under what scenario could it be evenly divided? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomFromNJ, AdmiralNaismith

        The Dems have start with 14 safe seats, districts 3,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,15,16,20 and 27.

        Districts 4, 17, and 26 are very likely Dem, especially 4 and 17.

        The GOP has a few safe seats, district 2 (until King retires), several upstate seats.

        Tossups are 1,13,  18, 19, 22,23,24, 25, although some are these are leaning GOP.

        An even split in a 27 seat delegation is 14 to 13.  The GOP would need every tossup and districts 4, 17, and 26, which isn't going to happen.  

      •  Hard to imagine an evenly split NY (0+ / 0-)

        not hard to imagine them holding similar to what they have today but very difficult to see them gaining.

        On the other hand it is possible to see them losing any or all of their currently held seats.

        But I don't expect that. I think Dems will likely pick up 2-4 seats and miss the opportunities to pick up more. If they/we are better prepared we will pick up the rest of them over the next couple cycles. Only 3 seats in the state are really Republican favoring.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Sun May 13, 2012 at 06:57:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  the end of incumbent self-protection (0+ / 0-)

      One explanation I've heard for why Democrats ended up getting a surprising number of potential new seats in California is that over the last few reapportionments, incumbent reps have worked out compromises with each other across party lines to protect their own seats. Because CA is so heavily Democratic, this resulted in more districts that were heavily skewed blue vote sinks than red ones. Apparently the redistricting commission made most or all districts more balanced, destroying a lot of those treasured safe seats but creating a lot more lean-blue districts.
      I'd been convinced by the "its a Republican trick!" arguments when this initiative was on the ballot, and I voted against it. Now I'm celebrating the unintended consequences. =]

  •  Six months to GROW!! (7+ / 0-)

    WE have to grow faster and harder than those sneaky payola bought repub=lick=ans.


    Just A Real Nice Guy, thinking out loud.

    by arealniceguy on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:18:03 PM PDT

  •  I don't know if I'll ever again be comfortable (9+ / 0-)

    with Florida being an important electoral state...

    "A candle loses nothing by lighting another candle" - Mohammed Nabbous, R.I.P.

    by Lawrence on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:24:23 PM PDT

    •  I'm not sure I'm comfortable (2+ / 0-)

      with Florida being a state. :D

      "Maybe: it's a vicious little word that could slay me"--Sara Bareilles

      by ChurchofBruce on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:05:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They started with the Confederacy, then (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      sending two electoral delegations in 1876, thus giving us "Rutherfraud" B. Hayes and the "Corrupt Bargain" for removing Federal troops from former Confederate states.

      I am assuming that you are referring to the 2000 electoral shenanigans, where the Republicans had to steal the election in Florida FIVE times over in order to make it stick, or rather, send it to SCOTUS for them to make it stick. Starting with Katharine Harris, officially the top election official in FL as Secretary of State, being Bush's campaign chair.

      Busting the Dog Whistle code.

      by Mokurai on Mon May 14, 2012 at 10:18:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You're right about the NY House races, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Irixsh, Andrew C White

    which are competitive because federal judges drew districts without regard to protecting incumbents.

    The tea party wave picked off six NY seats in 2010. The Dems have a solid chance of winning three or four of those back (among Grimm, Hayworth, Gibson, Buerkle), but also will face tough fights defending Hochul, Bishop, Owens and Slaughter.

    I think the Dems will gain two seats in NY, thanks to Obama on top and higher turnout.

    But there will be many more close races this year.

    A public option for health insurance is a national priority.

    by devtob on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:30:27 PM PDT

  •  Well done. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jpmassar, mrsgoo

    This is real front page material... what brought me to DKos in the first place.

  •  I'm still pretty badly worried about this election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Wrench44

    But as far as the presidency goes, it's just really difficult to see a path for Romney unless something gets worse. His max right now all things being equal is a paltry 276 based on my calculations. Obama has a lot more money, a far more flexible map, and far better grassroots. And it doesn't hurt that Republicans will be putting up objectionable folks like Murdock who will force money into states that D's would have probably ignored like Indiana.

    Far more concerned with the Senate (as the House is going to stay R barring something major).

  •  My understanding is that if Dems don't (7+ / 0-)

    register voters, we'll be in lots of trouble in quite a few states.
    Many more Repugs are registered now than in 2008.

  •  for history's path to unfold apace Congress must (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    be swept Democratic so that the future for the second term may be truly won

    slutty voter for a "dangerous president"; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; Warning-Some Snark Above"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Sciant terra viam monstrare." 政治委员, 政委!

    by annieli on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:41:57 PM PDT

  •  R U Kidding Me??? (0+ / 0-)

    Yes, FL is No. 1 but VA is no worse than No. 3 with OH at No. 2.

    VA is ground zero of the battleground states which an Obama win makes him virtually undefeatable.  If Barack wins VA, it is game over.

    The battle for VA will be won or lost not far from the historic  battleground at Bull Run - the center of NoVa.

    •  Obama's paths are many. (10+ / 0-)

      Yeah, if he wins VA, he wins.

      Or either of FL or Ohio.

      Or any four of PA, WI, IA, NJ, CO, N. Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, MN, Indiana...

      There are many scenarios where Romney takes OH and FL and still loses the Electoral College.  His path is very, very narrow.

      The national numbers will be very close, but that number won't be reflected in the EC vote.

      "The attack on the truth by war begins long before war starts and continues long after a war ends." -Julian Assange

      by Pierro Sraffa on Sun May 13, 2012 at 06:00:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  IMHO... (0+ / 0-)

        Obama probably has PA since it hasn't gone GOP since 1988. Iowa did go for Bush in 2004 but still ditto as PA for the DEM's. New Jersey,Wisconsin,Michigan and Minnesota same as PA. In fact Obama also seems to be pulling New Hampshire back or most probably never really lost it and it's thesame as Iowa but it did go for Bush in 2000.

         In other words if Obama holds onto the Kerry states while adding Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada he can without Ohio,Virginia, North Carolina or Florida,a so-called big 4 in my terminology. I also think  Romney may have to spend alot of money in the battle ground states ,ie.e the big 4 plus maybe even the Dakota's,Arizona and Montana.

  •  OMG, hope we can defeat Macaca in November (11+ / 0-)

    And let's hope Warner doesn't want to run for Guv again.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Sun May 13, 2012 at 05:57:30 PM PDT

  •  NH=very important (8+ / 0-)

    Because I live there and we've been hit so FUCKING HARD with these awful people in the statehouse. They've tried everything from right-to-work, to repealing our state's cap and trade program. Also, our two congressmen are in the top 10 corrupt according to CREW. (Punk, Technology, politics-my blog)

    by greenpunx on Sun May 13, 2012 at 06:11:20 PM PDT

  •  Well done, Steve! A great integrated approach ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cocinero, mrsgoo

    ... to an election which needs to consider the whole Federal ticket, the effect of voter suppression efforts and allocate time, energy and money several different ways and in several different dimensions.

    Obama and strong Democratic majorities in 2012!

    by TRPChicago on Sun May 13, 2012 at 06:15:18 PM PDT

  •  I don't think we should count on Florida (0+ / 0-)

    The gay marriage issue is very likely to tilt our state back to red for the presidential election in 2012.  Nelson is likely to win the Senate seat, but Obama? I don't think so. There are scenarios where Obama can win without Florida, so I think we really, really need to focus on those scenarios.

  •  Indiana: Stay tuned. There seems to be much (4+ / 0-)

    buyers regret already over Mourdock as Tea Party U.S. Senate Candidate. It only took about 45 minutes after declaring his conservative victory for Mourdock to try  to sell his campaign as middle of the road Republican. Donnelly isn't a really powerful Democratic candidate, but if the disenchantment over Mourdock's delcaration to end any hope of compromise of any kind in the Senate, the Indiana Senate Seat is in play.  Mourdock has bragged and touted the amount of support he got from conservatives, outside of Indiana for the Primary. This doesn't sit well with Lugar Republicans who know how faithflul Lugar supported his constitigency. There is much Lugar grief still hanging over this state.  The Indianapolis Star. the major newspaper in Central Indiana still has stories, daily, about how this loss will hurt Indiana.

  •  Great...... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    internationaljock, cybersaur

    The same few states will see all the action.  Doubtful the President will bother campaigning much in NJ or NY or CA for that matter.  The Electoral College has got to go.  It is broken.  Deciding the President via popular vote would make it much harder to steal the Presidency or send it to the Supreme Court again.

  •  I'm so excited! (0+ / 0-)

    Just imagine if we can get huge majorities in the house, senate, and the white house!

  •  Expand the field (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    artebella, pademocrat

    I'm in Missouri.  As we all know, Obama does not need to win Missouri, but we need to keep McCaskill.  She should get a very weak challenger.  

    Nixon is posed to win in a walk.

    If we have a good ground game with a discouraged Republican base (the ONLY Republicans voting are the hate-Obama crowd), we could have some surprises and I hope one is my district, the Missouri 4th where Hensley defeats Hartzler (R-Teabagger).

    Mit der Dummheit kämpfen Götter selbst vergebens.

    by MoDem on Sun May 13, 2012 at 07:07:30 PM PDT

  •  not sure where (0+ / 0-)

    North Dakota ranked (though by your methodolgy I count at least 8 points), but it should be watched...our Senate seat could be the decisive one for determining control. Could be our House seat is too.

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Sun May 13, 2012 at 09:49:53 PM PDT

  •  If you want a bellwether it looks like Virginia (0+ / 0-)

    Senate seat could well decide control and it was the closest state to the national margin in the 2008 presidential race.

    "There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney (R-All Over The Map)

    by conspiracy on Mon May 14, 2012 at 03:24:38 AM PDT

  •  Democratic alternatives to Feinstein in CA (0+ / 0-)

    Several Democrats are running, mostly more progressive than Feinstein.  It doesn't have to be a Republican like Orly who opposes Feinstein, but instead could be someone progressive - since this is a Top 2 primary this time.

    At our campaign for Mike Strimling /, we are providing a place for voters who want to make a statement to return to progressive taxation of the ultra-wealthy.  We advocate tax rates on the top 2% equivalent to those during the Eisenhower and Kennedy adminstrations, not the wishy-washy 4% raise that Obama proposes.  

    You have a chance in this primary to have Feinstein and a more progressive Democrat as the top two going on to November.  If you really want a discussion of Democratic and progressive principles, that is not from the usual center-right and farther right, don't waste the vote on Feinstein.  Even if you are going to support Feinstein in the Fall, every vote for Mike Strimling will push her (and give her and others cover) to vote for higher taxes on the wealthy.  She voted for the Bush tax cuts, and voted to extend them.  She should know that we will be watching.  She's going to be in the top 2, barring a real accident, so make your vote count.

      Check us out at

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site