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Leading Off:

CA-07: A little over a month ago, a story broke about a fraudulent voter registration drive in the Sacramento area, led by one Monica Harris, a Republican operative who, it turned out, had a serious criminal record that included embezzlement, theft, and prison time. And one of Harris's recent clients, as it happened, was GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, who denied involvement, saying that the "registration effort was not being run by the campaign."

Now, remarkably, he's defending the drive—to the hilt:

Lungren said he supported the voter drive and understood that there were sufficient safeguards in place to prevent fraud. "The overall registration effort made by the party was very successful. I am unaware of any single registration that was paid for by that program that had any problems," he said last week, adding that it's possible that the voters filling out the forms made mistakes.
Let's just revisit what the Sacramento elections board—which doesn't have any skin in this game, apart from wanting valid voter registration rolls—said about Harris's fraud in May:
Jill LaVine, Sacramento County's registrar of voters, has turned over evidence of what she called registration fraud to the California Secretary of State's Office. She said that at least one-fourth of the 31,000 registration cards submitted by Harris and her circulators since September have been rejected for inaccuracies.

Momentum Political Services was hired by the Republican Party of Sacramento County to conduct voter registration drives. LaVine said her office found numerous examples of people of having their political party affiliation switched to Republican against their wishes.

Does Lungren plan to blame these magical party switches on the people who filled out the forms? I'm just baffled. Why isn't he just shutting up and letting Harris take the fall?

Senate:

CO-Sen: As part of its Colorado miscellany, PPP took an early look at the 2014 Senate race, when freshman Dem Mark Udall will be up for re-election. Tom Jensen summarizes:

Udall has a solid 42/34 approval rating and would lead in hypothetical match ups against 7 different potential GOP foes we tested him against. The strongest of the GOP folks we tested is former Governor Bill Owens, who would trail Udall 47-43. The only other Republican who can hold Udall to a single digit lead is Congressman Mike Coffman, who trails 48-39.

The other Republicans we looked at were 2010 primary runner up Jane Norton (trails 48-38), former Congressman Tom Tancredo (trails 49-39), Attorney General John Suthers (trails 48-38), Congressman Doug Lamborn (trails 49-36), and 2010 nominee Ken Buck who has the widest deficit at 50-35. That has to be a frustrating fact for the GOP, because it suggests they could have knocked off Michael Bennet in 2010 if they'd run just about anyone other than Buck. Buck's favorability is an atrocious 18/35 spread.

PPP also finds voters narrowly supporting an initiative to legalize marijuana, 46-42. Also of note, Dem Gov. John Hickenlooper is extremely popular, with a 60-26 job approval rating. Amazingly, even Republicans give rate him at 36-43, which demonstrates some exceptional crossover appeal.

FL-Sen: I have to admit, I rather liked having ex-Sen. George LeMieux in the Republican primary, if only because he clearly enjoyed ragging on front-runner Connie Mack as much as I do. But LeMieux, whose fundraising and polling generally sucked, has now dropped out of the race. I can't decide whether this is actually good or bad for Mack, but I think it's possible it could be the latter. Now, at least, ex-Rep. Dave Weldon, a late entrant to the race, could at least try to consolidate the anti-Mack vote. The problem, though, is that there are still some other minor candidates out there drawing support of their own, and Weldon has only two months until the primary. Oh well. Bye, George.

P.S. Quinnipiac has some job approval numbers for Dem Sen. Bill Nelson (47-32, up from 44-35 in May), but their full head-to-heads in this year's Senate race won't be out until later today.

NM-Sen: The Internet has the longest of memories—longer, it seems, than Heather Wilson's. A Democratic operative gave BuzzFeed a nice little hit on New Mexico's Republican Senate nominee. Wilson this week:

I've always opposed the privatization of Social Security.
Ah, but Wilson in 1998:
I support innovative approaches that would allow working people to put at least some of their Social Security payments into personalized pension funds.
Is Wilson now going to attempt AEI's Orwellian "personalization is not privatization" dodge? (Or as we used to call it, "the bad kind of SSP"—Social Security privatization, that is.) We'll just have to see.

Meanwhile, the Defenders of Wildlife, leaders of the Planeteers a coalition of environmental groups who have banded together to defeat Wilson this November, filed a $38K expenditure report with the FEC for direct mail expenses in this race. (David Nir & James L)

NE-Sen: Wow. This statement from Democrat Bob Kerrey is just baffling. He starts by quoting legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, who once said, "Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist." Then, this:

In spite of the TV ads suggesting I have become more liberal during my time in New York, the opposite actually happened. The things I have done during my time away from politics the past ten years have given me a view of the world that has made me much less the slave of some defunct economist (and of paid political advertisements). I have come much more firmly to believe in the wisdom of the masses. I do not believe that a million people making the same decision (what am I going to wear this morning) will all make the right choice. Maybe 10% will make a terrible choice. Maybe 10% will make an inspired choice. Maybe the rest of us will do OK. We're all better off making the decision on our own than we would be having one person make that decision for all of us in order to keep 10% of us from making a mistake. Besides: I am much more likely to learn from my mistakes anyway.
It's like Deep Thoughts... by Bob Kerrey.

Uh, where were we? Oh, right, Nebraska Senate race. Well, you can certainly understand why Project New America isn't shopping this poll around, unlike their gaudy AZ-Sen survey from a day earlier. But an unnamed source tells Politico's Alexander Burns that PNA's poll, from Garin-Hart-Yang, finds Republican Deb Fischer leading Democrat Bob Kerrey 52-38. Even Barack Obama does better than Kerrey, trailing Mitt Romney by "only" a 12-point margin, 52-40. Well, at least these numbers are a bit better than that recent Fischer internal which had her up 58-33. That's some pretty frosty comfort, though.

VA-Sen: That Majority PAC ad against George Allen that we wrote about yesterday? We now have word on the size of the buy: $487K.

WA-Sen (PDF): You could be forgiven if you'd forgotten that Washington is having a Senate race this year. I mean, I live in Washington, and I often forget there's a Senate race this year. At any rate, PPP included the oft-overlooked race in its sample this week, and they find that Dem incumbent Maria Cantwell is continuing to have an easy time of it. She leads Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner 51-35, basically unchanged since February when she led 51-36. Cantwell has 46/39 approvals, while Baumgartner is a cipher, with 72% with no opinion about him. (At the top of the ticket in the Evergreen State, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 54-41, including a 52-36 lead among independents.) (David Jarman)

WI-Sen: Marquette Law School is out with the first reputable poll of the Badger State since the gubernatorial recall, but note that they're already using a likely voter screen for the November general election even though it's still over four months away. In any event, they find Republican Tommy Thompson up 49-41 over Democrat Tammy Baldwin in the Senate race, while Baldwin ties or leads the other GOP hopefuls. Thompson also garners a pretty unimpressive 34% in the Republican primary, but the rest of the field is quite fractured. Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-43. Click through for all the numbers and our analysis.

Gubernatorial:

NH-Gov: Apparently, New Hampshire law allows the creation of two different kinds of political committees for gubernatorial campaigns: standard campaign committees and PACs. I'm not clear on the distinctions between them, or why you'd choose one over the other, but one important difference is that PACs had to file fundraising reports on Wednesday while campaign committees aren't obligated to do so until August 22. Consequently, Democrat Maggie Hassan, who chose the PAC route, just announced her totals, saying she's taken in $700K so far and has about $400K cash-on-hand. Hassan's rival for the Democratic nomination, Jackie Cilley, also created a PAC, so her numbers should be available soon, too.

The two principal GOPers, Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith, both operate regular committees, so their reports are due for a while yet. But as we mentioned the other day, Lamontagne leaked some early numbers, saying he'd raised $910K, with $500K in the bank.

House:

CA-21: I don't think there's any reason to hope that Fresno City Councilor Blong Xiong can make up the rest of the gap with fellow Democrat John Hernandez, even though Hernandez's 6.8% election night lead has now closed to just 1.3%. (God, California, you really suck at counting votes. The primary was over two weeks ago!) The problem, as John Ellis at the Fresno Bee notes, is that "[i]t is unknown how many votes are left to count in the district." The answer, though, is "probably not nearly enough" for Xiong to prevail. What's more, he hasn't even issued any public statements—not even a tweet—since election day; you'd think if he still felt he had any shot, he'd have said something to that effect.

FL-16: GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan, who faces multiple investigations into his ethics, is also embroiled in related legal disputes, and now he's finally going to have to testify under oath in one of them. It's not clear exactly when Buchanan will have to take the stand, but it's in a "lawsuit involving his former partner, who alleged Buchanan was the architect of a plan to violate federal elections laws." More details are available at the link.

FL-18: Democrat Patrick Murphy has won the DCCC's "grassroots champion" contest that you probably got some spam about at some point or another. So what does Murphy win? "The campaign that receives the most unique votes overall by June 15th receives the title of DCCC Grassroots Champion and a fundraising e-mail to their state from the DCCC." And the D-Trip, of course, gets all those email addresses people had to provide in order to cast ballots.

Over on the GOP side, one of the strangest Republican campaigns in existence this cycle belongs to Martin County Sheriff Robert Crowder, who is rather improbably trying to unseat Allen West in the primary by running to his left. Crowder's already made a series of statements that show he's wildly out of step with the modern Republican Party, but his new interview with the Palm Beach Post editorial board is something else.

Just a sampling: Crowder won't speak out in favor of repealing the Affordable Care Act (and won't even say if he thinks the mandate is unconstitutional); he says that "at some point in time taxes have got to go up in some areas"; he rates Obama a "C+ or a B" overall; and says he hasn't even decided whether to vote for Obama or Romney in November! Crowder's obviously a member of the wrong party—he's just too reality-based, saying of the President: "I would be upset if he was actually doing some of the things he’s accused of." Dude, it's well past time to think about switching teams.

KY-06: Harry Reid's Patriot Majority PAC is out with a new Medicare-themed TV ad (backed by a $64K buy) in support of Democrat Ben Chandler. Note that the add uses 501(c)-type language ("tell Ben Chandler to keep fighting to protect Medicare"), which is the first time that I can remember Reid's PAC doing this. It's nice to know that so many groups are concerned with social welfare these days! (James L)

MA-06: Most of the early reservations for fall ad time we've seen so far have been in swing states, but here's one guy making the most of cheap rates in a state that's definitely not on the presidential radar: Republican Richard Tisei just reserved $650K on cable and broadcast "for the last month" of the election campaign. Joshua Miller points out that both the NRCC and DCCC have made substantial reservations of their own in the Boston media market, and I'd also add that the top-tier senate race between Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren will eat up a lot of available ad slots.

NY-11: Politicker's Colin Campbell reports he's obtained confirmation that the FBI investigation into GOP freshman Mike Grimm's shady campaign finance practices is indeed ongoing. (You'll recall the New York Times piece which broke the story early this year.) According to Campbell, "the FBI has been speaking to at least one individual about fundraising allegations against his 2010 campaign in the last couple weeks. One such person, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, confirmed that the FBI reached out to him to inquire on the matter."

The Daily News, following up on Politicker's story, adds that at least four people have been questioned in connection with the Grimm inquiry.

NY-19: It's not much of a primary, but Democratic attorney Julian Schreibman just earned the endorsement of retiring Rep. Maurice Hinchey. Hinchey's seat, the old 22nd, was largely dismantled in redistricting, but the largest chunk of his district made it into the redrawn 19th, where he currently represents 37% of population. Schreibman is looking to take on GOP freshman Chris Gibson in November, but first he has to dispatch Dutchess County Legislator Joel Tyner, whose shoestring campaign has fallen apart in tragi-comic fashion. (Click through for some serious insanity.) The primary is June 26.

OK-01: The American Academy of Anesthesiologists are spending another $25K on direct mail in order to numb Republican primary voters into a state of deep sedation on behalf of Rep. John Sullivan. (James L)

PA-12: Dem Rep. Mark Critz is out with a new internal poll of the general election, where he faces Republican Keith Rothfus, the 2010 nominee in the old PA-04 (which makes up about two thirds of the new 12th). The survey, from Global Strategy Group, finds Critz up 46-36 over Rothfus. Critz's favorables are 38-19, while Rothfus is less well-known, at 14-7.

TX-14: While I don't think you could call either of the two Republicans in the TX-14 runoff "Paulists," one of them has indeed earned the backing of the man they're trying to succeed in Congress. Rep. Ron Paul has endorsed state Rep. Randy Weber, who is facing off against Pearland City Councilwoman Felicia Harris. (Weber took 28% in the first round to 19% for Harris.) It seems like Paul's been body-snatched, though. His statement on behalf of Weber is pure anodyne GOP:

"As a small business owner, Randy understands how excessive regulation and reckless overspending by government is destroying jobs and squeezing our community. Randy Weber will be a strong and consistent voice to get Washington off our backs so we in the Fourteenth District can work and grow."
Nothing about fiat currency, the Federal Reserve, or the NAFTA Superhighway? I'm disappointed!

UT-02: Just like baseball, there's no crying in politics, either. Yet a bunch of Utah Republicans have been wailing like babies for months, ever since Air Force vet Chris Stewart won his party's nomination at the GOP's state convention back in April. Four also-rans have filed a complaint with the FEC about how things went down, which seems a bit like appealing to the World Court at the Hague because your mom grounded you. Anyhow, this is what they allege:

The complaint stems from an anonymous letter that a virtually unknown candidate—Eureka Mayor Milton Hanks—said was sent to delegates leading up to the state Republican convention April 21 that alleged the four candidates had crafted a deal to ensure Stewart wouldn’t win the nomination by developing an "ABC Club" (Anybody But Chris Club).

Hanks delivered an explosive speech to delegates that resulted in a chaotic series of events that left Eagar, Wallack, Clark and Williams unable to rebut Hanks’ allegations before delegates voted.

The 14-page complaint charges the Stewart campaign with creating the letter to destroy the four candidates’ chances of securing the nomination and includes a list of witnesses who received the missive just days before the convention. The complaint also alleges Hanks was a supporter of Stewart in early February before deciding to jump into the race himself and filing a statement of candidacy on Feb. 24. Hanks on Monday denied the charge and said he supported Bob Fuehr for Congress before entering as a candidate himself.

An internal investigation by the state GOP already found no wrongdoing, though. And in any event, even if the FEC did agree (at some distant point in the future) that Stewart acted improperly, the complainants are only seeking a fine. So it's not really clear what they're hoping to accomplish, except perhaps to damage Stewart and soften him up for a primary challenge in the future.

Grab Bag:

American Crossroads: Last Friday, we got word of the size of the buy behind American Crossroads' broad-spectrum attack on multiple Democratic Senate candidates. Well, it now looks like the PAC is quickly doubling up on their buys in these states – in NE-Sen, they're spending another $127K; NV-Sen, another $167K, and VA-Sen, another $358K. No word on whether they'll be making an NM-Sen re-up, though. (James L)

Americans for Prosperity: A breathless Lando Calrissian reports: "That blast came from the Koch Brothers! Those douchebags are operational!" Yup, Americans for Prosperity is targeting the Democratic Senate fleet with a $3 million ad buy spread between FL-Sen, MO-Sen, MT-Sen, NV-Sen, VA-Sen, and WI-Sen. A copy of the Montana ad is available at the link, and the Wisconsin ad can be viewed here. (James L)

CPA/NY-13: Well, well, well. Look who's getting in on the 501(c)(4) racket. It's none other than the Campaign for Primary Accountability, the already-notorious super PAC which loves to target incumbents of both parties, supposedly just for the crime of being incumbents. But they've got a non-profit arm as well, called the "Alliance for Self-Governance." As you know if you've been reading our commentary lately on groups like Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS, these non-profit "social welfare" organizations can't engage in direct candidate advocacy, but they skirt the law with bogus "issue" ads. That also allows them to hide their donors (non-profits don't have to publicize who funds them) and their expenditures. (Super PACs, like ordinary PACs, have to file both fundraising reports and independent expenditure reports with the FEC.)

I mention all this in the context of New York's 13th Congressional District because, even though the CPA could have hidden behind the cloak of the ASG, spokesman Curtis Ellis nevertheless admitted to Capital New York's Reid Pillifant that they're basically doing bupkes in the Democratic primary, despite earlier claims that they'd spend "six figures" on the race. Ellis says that the group's efforts to boost state Sen. Adriano Espaillat and take down Rep. Charlie Rangel "will be mostly online" (in Pillifant's words), a particularly odd way of trying to reach people in this lower-income district. It seems that all the ASG has done, in fact, is put up a single web-page attacking Rangel, and in English only. (This is a majority-Hispanic district.) I've long urged skepticism about the CPA's supposed target lists, and it looks like that skepticism is indeed justified.

Actually, that skepticism is even more justified than I realized. Aaron Blake has a timely piece out on the CPA, and it turns out they're out of money! They've spent $2.7 million this cycle but now have just $227K on hand. They probably could have used their cash more wisely: Some of the races they've gotten involved in (like TX-04) have been serious head-scratchers. And thanks to the FEC's data portal, we can see exactly how much they've spent and where:

CD Target Target's
%age
Success? Spent
AL-01 Jo Bonner (R) 56% No $123,680
AL-06 Spencer Bachus (R) 59% No $203,109
IL-02 Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) 71% No $89,321
IL-16 Don Manzullo (R) 46% Yes $239,532
IN-05 David McIntosh (R) * 29% No $132,902
NY-13 Charlie Rangel (D) $9,830
OH-02 Jean Schmidt (R) 43% Yes $132,024
OH-09 Marcy Kaptur (D) 56% No $253,179
PA-17 Tim Holden (D) 43% Yes $193,875
PA-18 Tim Murphy (R) 63% No $107,308
TX-04 Ralph Hall (R) 58% No $167,371
TX-16 Silvestre Reyes (D) 44% Yes $240,000
IN-05 was an open seat, but the CPA nevertheless decided to support ex-Rep. David McIntosh in his failed comeback bid. Note also that this table doesn't include spending by the CPA's non-profit arm mentioned above.

DSCC/NRSC: Like its House counterpart, the DSCC outraised its opposite number on the Republican side in the very merry month of May. The DS pulled in $5.6 million, compared to $3.9 mil for the NRSC. Senate Democrats also have a big cash-on-hand edge, $28.3 million to $23 mil.

Governors: The University of Minnesota has some good trivia on which states have gone the longest without electing a Republican to the governor's mansion. The current winner? Washington, where the last member of the GOP to win a gubernatorial race was John Spellman in 1980. The lengthiest drought on the other side is in South Dakota; there, no Democrat has won the top job since Richard Kneip won re-election to a third term all the way back in 1974.

House: Franking, my dear: I don't give a damn. At least, not generally. Complaints about "abuse" of congressional mailing privileges are usually pretty weak tea, though once in a while someone does get busted for doing something egregious. In this case, I bring it up because Roll Call's John Stanton has done a thorough review of franking expenditures, coming up with a list of the top 10 spendthrifts:

Joe Heck (NV-03), Scott DesJarlais (TN-04), Martin Heinrich (NM-01), Kenny Marchant (TX-24), Bobby Schilling (IL-17), Brad Sherman (CA-30), Vicky Hartzler (MO-04), David McKinley (WV-01), Frank Guinta (NH-01), and Todd Young (IN-09).
Eight of these members are Republicans (all save Heinrich and Sherman), but Stanton points out something much more interesting:
Of those 10, at least four of the Republicans—Heck, Schilling, McKinley and Guinta—ran, at least in part, on criticizing incumbents over their mailing practices.

During that period, Heck has spent an estimated $422,000, Schilling has racked up $318,000, McKinley has totaled $312,000, and Guinta has totaled $308,000.

Stanton also rounds up some good quotes from each of these congressmen when they railed against franking last cycle. Heck, Schilling, and Guinta all face competitive elections this year, so their hypocrisy may come back to haunt them.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Looks like Lungren (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, david78209, econdem, Larsstephens

    has a bit too much Monica in his life...

    Male, currently staying in Osaka-01. Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:13:04 AM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: Baldwin releases first TV ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541

    and it's to air statewide:

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:29:46 AM PDT

  •  Unemployment claims fall 2K to 387K (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, litho, Amber6541, askew

    A bit better than expected.

    "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:36:07 AM PDT

    •  Public sector and unemployment rate (6+ / 0-)
      If governments still employed the same percentage of the work force as they did in 2009, the unemployment rate would be a percentage point lower, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics.
      http://www.nytimes.com/...

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:08:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's a relief to me that... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, itskevin, KingofSpades

      ...they're just holding steady, not still rising.

      There actually hasn't been much change, we went through an annual adjustment in the seasonal adjustment calculator and the claims since have been largely stable.  Unfortunately, it's been stable well above 350K.  But then it's also stayed well below 400K, which is good.

      I'm done trying to guess what the next round of unemployment and job reports will say.  I'm not expecting any significant change, but I suppose expectations now have dropped low enough that it will be easy to exceed them...that's the only good news there.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:21:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It only fell because (0+ / 0-)

      they adjusted up last weeks number by 3000. So it went up 1000 from the last time they reported

  •  Another MI poll (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.mediabistro.com/...

    I don't know much about them, but it's similar to the last 4 MI polls released.

    20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

    by aggou on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:38:25 AM PDT

    •  Corect link? (0+ / 0-)

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:42:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wooops (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Amber6541

        lol

        http://www.clickondetroit.com/...

        That other link was a video I saw on a local news channel last night. My bad

        20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

        by aggou on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:44:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, they've polled MI for a while (0+ / 0-)

          Pretty clear even with the Rasmussen poll that the state is closer than expected right now.  I don't expect it to last, but Obama may have to spend more here than anticipated.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:53:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I Don't Have Much Respect For These People..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Rich in PA

            First in 2010, they unilaterally reward the party that almost to a person called for their state's economy to be vaporized simply to score political points against unions.  And now in 2012, they're undecided when it comes to the man who specifically saved their economy against the man who specifically called for it to go bankrupt.  Seriously Michigan?  Why don't you just burn in hell then!

          •  I'm still not convinced (7+ / 0-)

            And won't be until OFA go up with ads. Their internals obviously don't indicate the need at the moment. Biden certainly implied that not so long ago. Also note that Mitchell found Bush leading in June 2004 at a time his national poll average was no better than 45 percent.

            Here they note the number of independents in the sample but not the Democratic-Republican split. I wonder if they are in EPIC territory with a LV turnout that looks nothing like recent presidential elections in Michigan.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:05:40 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Whose internals? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bear83

              The Obama campaign's? That's probably true.

              Also, this poll, from what I can tell, doesn't tell us the party breakdown, except for Independents. It does tell us that Obama is getting only 77 percent of the black vote, which is ridiculous. I don't know anything about this pollster, but leaving out such crucial information makes me highly skeptical.

              Or put it this way: Obama's getting 44 percent of the white vote here. In 2008, whites were 82 percent of the electorate, according to CNN. If he gets that much in 2012 and everything else stays about the same, he wins with 51.68 percent.

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:28:47 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I bet Romney's internals, too, because... (0+ / 0-)

                ...if he's running even in Michigan, there's no reason that's not as good a bet for him as Iowa where he's airing ads.  And Michigan has a lot more electoral votes, it's a much bigger prize than Iowa.

                I repeat what I've said before:  look at CT-Sen and CO-Gov in 2010, this happened plenty where there were multiple bad polls saying the same thing at the same time, and they were all full of crap.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:41:10 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I prefer to use 2004 as a baseline in Michigan (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                Because it was competitive right until the end unlike 2008. What percentage of the white vote did the exit poll indicate Kerry received in carrying the state? 44.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:00:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Pretty clear that's not true (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, itskevin, David Nir

            I keep seeing this Michigan polls and then looking for reports of TV ads in Michigan by OFA or allies, but crickets from them all.

            I still follow the money and always will as long as OFA has it to spend.  And they just reported having $105 million cash-on-hand at the end of May, so they have it to spend.

            The Obama campaign and allies wouldn't stay off the air in Michigan if these polls were right.  So I dismiss them.

            If we start hearing about Obama going on the air up there and/or otherwise ramping up campaign activity to a higher level in the state, only then I'll believe it's gotten tight.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:29:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do we know how many offices (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              are in Michigan for each campaign? At this point, that is what's key. It becomes harder and harder, in both physical and monetary terms, to get that going the closer we get to election day.

              This Bloomberg piece talks about how the Obama campaign has 35 offices in Ohio and 40 in Florida. There's no comparison to what Romney has (hey guys, let details and context meet some day; they'd surely get along nicely!), but I have to assume it's less, or they wouldn't write the article. Now, while Michigan was never a big focus, and it's not clear it will be going forward, it's in the second tier, which means there's probably a decent level of infrastructure in the state.

              Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

              by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:35:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think that comparison works right now (0+ / 0-)

                Romney is still ramping up and in the process of hiring more staff and opening offices.  We can't evaluate while he's still in the middle of that.  OFA has largely completed that process, so their numbers make sense.  I don't know how many offices we have in Michigan, but it has to be evaluated in relative rather than absolute terms since OFA has taken to opening offices in far-flung places that are not remotely close to any competitive state.

                I'm curious how the campaign media are privately reacting to these Michigan polls.  MSNBC First Read reported the EPIC-MRA poll largely without comment.  But no one is really talking about Michigan, they're acting like the campaigns are, that it's not really a battleground.  And yet these public polls keep coming.  I suspect, but don't know, that they ask the campaigns about it, the campaigns wave off the polls as inaccurate, and so the reporters don't bother to focus more on the state.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:11:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Okay, fair enough, but how many offices (0+ / 0-)

                  do they plan to have?

                  Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                  by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:52:49 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Well look at it this way (0+ / 0-)

                There are 67 counties in Florida. Assuming there is only one field office per county, OFA could essentially be ceding the Panhandle and Northern Florida and focusing on places where people actually live

                •  Offices Still Opening (0+ / 0-)

                  I'm on several jobs lists and I can tell you that OFA is just getting started. They are still hiring and they are still opening up offices all over the country. They will probably always be hiring for somewhere, right up to October. That's what they did in 2008 (I know, I almost took a job in Indiana in October that year).

                  Also, I've talked to folks in Florida (where I currently live) and I believe that they expect to at least open up one office for every county within the state. Sure, some will be just a hole in the wall, but there will be staff all through out the state, nonetheless.

                  •  Well sometimes all you need is a hole in the wall (0+ / 0-)

                    for the few like minded people to get together and feel they are doing all they can to contribute. And you dont need a big rented office space for some dedicated phone bankers with their cell phones to call their friends and neighbors.

                  •  Good to hear! (0+ / 0-)

                    Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                    by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:53:15 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  I thought it was a joke comment (0+ / 0-)

        I didn't catch it as a mistaken link and replied below to the first link!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:38:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Even similar to this one: (0+ / 0-)

      "Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Theodore Seuss Geisel

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 05:44:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I see two possibilities (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, DCCyclone, itskevin

        Either Rasmussen threw out a pro-Obama poll to make his outliers seem plausible or MI is truly a high single-digit race at minimum because even he couldn't find favorable Romney numbers. The latter fits with the behavior of both campaigns right now.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:23:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What On Earth Is Going On Is Michigan? (0+ / 0-)

      How has Romney closed a double-digit gap in two months?

      •  One of his home states (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        There are people there who still remember his father and mother, fondly.  

        And check out these polling result for Michigan in '08, up to the middle of September:

        http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:02:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Alternatively (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Dr Stankus

        It was never a double-digit race.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:16:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am not at all convinced (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, DCCyclone, bear83, itskevin, askew

        that anything is going on except questionable polling.  Mitchell boldly declares that the campaigns will have to spend heavily in MI right down to the wire even though neither has spent a nickel.

        Backing out the very limited cross tabs provided here, I estimate this sample is D39, R37, which is identical to EPIC-MRA's sample.  2008 exit poll was D41, R28.  Either there has been a tectonic shift in the Michigan electorate, or these pollsters are doing it wrong.  The simple explanation for why the campaigns aren't going in guns blazing like Mitchell says they must is that they do not anticipate such a shift in MI electorate.

        •  The 2010 Midterms Suggest.... (0+ / 0-)

          ....that there already was a tectonic shift in the Michigan electorate.....and that we'll need another tectonic shift to get it back to where it was in 2008 and where polls indicated it was just two months ago.  After the first bad poll, I scoffed.  After the second, I was still skeptical.  But it's hard to ignore three consecutive polls showing a tie.

          •  Since there was no exit poll for MI (4+ / 0-)

            in 2010, you or I have no way of knowing what the electorate was then.  Plus midterm turnout tells us almost nothing about general election turnout.  Midterms involve a much much smaller electorate, which in 2010 was full of rabid teabaggers and not to many Democrats nationwide.  2004 turnout was 39D, 34R.

          •  I'll stop ignoring these polls (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, PassionateJus, itskevin, askew

            when the campaigns start acting like it is up for grabs.  For now, both history and the behavior of both campaigns tell me these polls are off the mark.

            •  Romney has been talking up his chances in Michigan (0+ / 0-)

              and has been hanging around there a lot. He celebrated his top fundraising day in the campaign there yesterday:
              http://abcnews.go.com/...
              I think he believes the hype.

              27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

              by bumiputera on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:35:38 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Romney running his mouth (6+ / 0-)

                does not mean much.  He's not "believing the hype, he's trying to create hype.  I do not believe campaigns as large and sophisticated as his are reactive to public polling.  They have their own more sophisticated polling.  I'll believe something is happening in Michigan when the money starts flowing in.  As of now, neither campaign has spent a nickel.

              •  What does this fund raising mean? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                I'm sure Obama could hold a fund raiser in Forth Worth, Texas, and have it mean nothing for his campaign. Hell, didn't John Kerry hold a big fund raiser in Louisville, Kentucky around this time in 2004? I am pretty sure he did.

                Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

                by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:40:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Follow Mitt's money, not his mouth (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera, blueonyx, itskevin, askew

                Mitt is advertising in 4 states:  Iowa; Ohio; Virginia; and North Carolina.

                Under Mitt's 3-2-1 strategy, the first 3 he needs to secure are Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Then he needs Florida and Ohio.  And then one more.

                Well, Indiana looks out of play (notwithstanding our report yesterday of Obama ads in Indianapolis) and in Mitt's column already, and NC and VA are getting ads.

                The GOP thinks they'll secure Florida before the fall but Ohio is a bit tougher, so that explains OH getting ads.

                Iowa is the target for the "1" part of the 3-2-1 strategy.  But if Michigan is a tossup, why not there, since it has a lot more electoral votes?

                Methinks Romney's private polling looks a lot like Obama's, and Michigan is not a tossup.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:04:02 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  It was a mid-term (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            Minority turnout is always down. Compare this turnout to the most favorable recent presidential year for the GOP and this sample is still more Republican than even 2004.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:29:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Midterms Mean Nothing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            The 2012 electorate is going to be more like the 2008 electorate than the 2010 electorate.

            Nothing to see here.

            Move along.

        •  Questionable polling (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          Yes, I do have issues with some of the polling too.  The Mitchell poll, for example, has Obama only winning 77% of African Americans.  I believe Gore won 91% and Kerry won 89% of the AA vote.  No way is Obama only getting 77%.    

          •  These MI polls are all wonky in some way (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, askew

            EPIC-MRA and this one have R heavy samples.  That Dem consultant poll had 81 percent old farts, and WAA was almost completely non-transparent but I suspect an R heavy sample.

            The AA crosstab is one that seems off in a wide variety of polls.  You often see Dems in the 70s and Rs in the high teens or even 20s.  Seldom works out that way in the end.  Don't know why that is.

            But you can pick apart crosstabs on a lot of polls.  Strongest evidence that these polls are off is the relative lack of money flowing into the state.

      •  Still would like to see PPP and/or SUSA (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, askew

        poll here, before panicking.

        •  I thought people were down on SUSA. (0+ / 0-)

          Am I thinking of another firm?

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:41:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  PPP polled it recently & said Obama up 53-39 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, itskevin

          Here is the link, May 24-27 field dates:  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

          That was just 3 weeks ago, and it was in between these several polls showing a tossup.

          And yes PPP was an outlier.

          But the Obama campaign is ACTING like PPP is right and the rest are very wrong.

          And the Obama campaign pays for far more accurate polling than all these public polls.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:57:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, itskevin, DCCyclone

            We already had this last year. As always I refer everyone to the RCP Michigan page. Before the fall there had already been two EPIC polls with a Romney lead. Then in September there was an exact tie according to MRG. But in October, the low point of the Obama presidency, SurveyUSA said the president was up 11. This was followed by another EPIC Romney lead in November.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:48:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  He hasn't (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem, GradyDem, itskevin, askew

        If it was tight, OFA would be on the air up there.  All the reports I've seen say they're not.

        I think these polls are flawed, and it's really a comfortable Obama lead.

        I won't believe otherwise until I see ramped up activity in Michigan by OFA, or otherwise some report that says Team Obama acknowledges tightening (which they haven't).

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:31:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And just to be clear, ramping up (0+ / 0-)

          activity isn't a sign of panic, but a sign of a good operation that knows what it is doing. Things will get tight in different ways, if not in Michigan than in Pennsylvania or Virginia or some other state, and the campaign isn't going to sit back and let it happen.

          Jack Donaghy: "We're nipping this in the bud. Jenna's going to issue a formal apology tomorrow on "Hardball"....you do know what that is, don't you?" Jenna Maroney: "Yes. Should I prepare a song?"

          by bjssp on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:38:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's possible (0+ / 0-)

          the Super PACs are trying to force OFA to play there by attacking him relentlessly to create some weakness. They may just want OFA to spend money and lose focus from the states that really matter.

          If that's the case, I would hope that OFA doesn't fall for it unless it become serious. If it tightens to a low-to-middle single digit race, I still probably wouldn't, as I think that will be ephemeral, and the state will revert to form in the fall.

          •  Starting to remind me of Minnesota last time (0+ / 0-)

            All those close SurveyUSA polls and McCain investment yet the Obama campaign spent virtually nothing.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 11:16:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  This is a rip-off of a Canadian TV show (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      I have an old friend who moved from D.C. to Ontario upon marrying a Canadian girl, and he told me about the show This Hour Is 22 Minutes featuring a fake news segment called "Talking to Americans."  They do the same thing, a camara crew posing as a news team asking Americans for opinions on fake news stories from Canada.  They managed to score on-camara interviews that, in different segments embarrassed both Mike Huckabee and Tom Vilsack (when they were sitting Governors) by seeming to get them to gullibly buy into the most absurd tall tales of goings-on in Canada.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:18:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Quinnipiac Florida: Ten point swing to Obama (8+ / 0-)

    He trailed by 6 in the last poll, now leads 46-42.

    link.

    •  Maybe this is why Romney is telling (8+ / 0-)

      Scott to be quiet about all the jobs gains.

    •  Is Nelson Really Underpolling Obama? (0+ / 0-)

      Is Mack's strength on the basis of his surname or is he saturating the airwaves with unanswered Nelson-bashing ads?

      •  Yeah, surprising that he is underpolling (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        Obama, especially since his approval rating is 47-32.

        My guess is they didnt push undecideds.

        The poll is actually an improvement for Nelson over May. It was 42-41 Mack in May.

    •  All about the sample (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, jj32, litho, SLDemocrat

      The last one was too R this one might be a tad too D, but closer to registration stats.

      31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:32:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  this one matches D-R ratio in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, itskevin

        just with more independents. It's a friendlier sample than the last Q poll in Florida but that only accounts for about half of the shift - crosstabs also show an improvement for Obama among most subgroups, except D and R which in both polls were near unanimously behind their party's candidate.

        I actually consider this one of the best state polls for Obama in the last month, as it gives him a decent lead in a highly competitive state and with a very credible looking sample.

        I'm also very encouraged that Obama has greatly narrowed the gap on the "who will do a better job on the economy" question, notably going from -15 among independents last month to -4.

    •  Quinnipiac (7+ / 0-)

      continues to be the king of swing.  I love the write up, as though this wild ass swing must be explainable by events on the ground (including gay marriage?!).  No, Quinnipiac, one or both of your polls is way off.

      •  Swingier than Scott (R)assmussen? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        spiderdem

        Well, perhaps for different reasons.

        "I hope; therefore, I can live."
        For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

        by tietack on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:04:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  to be fair the crosstabs do show pro-Obama swings (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        in most sub-categories. I calculate that around half the 10-point shift since their last poll is down to a shift in the sample composition, with the remaining 5 points due to what looks like a "real" improvement for Obama.

        Obama may or may not pull it out in FL but I'll be happy even if he loses but keeps it close enough that Romney has to campaign actively there all the way till the election. Romney has to win Florida at all costs so will be forced to do whatever it takes to keep himself competitive there, which could in turn ease Obama's path in a number of other battleground states.

        •  To be even more fair (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, itskevin

          this poll is well within the recent norm, apart from Purple Strategies.

          Agree with you that Florida is gravy and a very narrow loss here is a big picture win for Obama.

        •  Worth Noting That...... (0+ / 0-)

          Florida polls almost always understate Republican strength there.  It was true in 2000 (every poll showed Gore ahead).  It was true in 2002 (Jeb Bush was supposedly in the fight of his life against McBride).  It was true in 2004 (Kerry was neck-and-neck with the guy who beat him by five points).  And it was true in 2010 (polls indicated Sink would win).  2008 was the only year in my memory where the late polling in Florida was right.  Unless a Democrat is consistently up by five points in Florida, expect them to lose...and if they don't, it's a pleasant surprise.

          •  I don't recall (0+ / 0-)

            most polls showing Gore ahead in Florida in late 2000.  Maybe I forgot something?

            As I recall, Bush was usually ahead or at the very least even.  I was pleasantly surprised when the state was called for Gore early on election night, then confused when Bush moved back ahead with a lot of areas (mostly Dem-leaning) still ahead.  I went to bed with the state still uncalled and woke up to....well, you all remember.

            36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:34:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm Not Finding Lists of FL Polls In My Search.... (0+ / 0-)

              ...that I can link you to and give a definitive answer.  I can only find references to individual 2000 polls, most of which show Gore leading in Florida in the final weeks of the campaign but a few of which have Bush ahead.  Here's a link chronicling an issue we still have today that I remember being an issue back in 2000 as well.....polls that are all over the place.  http://www.pbs.org/...

              •  Yeah, the 2000 polls were all over the place (0+ / 0-)

                especially the trackers, which showed wild swings often in response to trivia that the press chose to harp on, such as Bush's allegedly subliminal ad or Gore's sighing in debate.

                And I guess they meant to refer to Scott Rasmussen, not Steve?

                36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 09:08:11 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  The count was so unreliable (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              I don't think we can read anything into a comparison with the polls.

              "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

              by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 11:11:41 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Bush certainly outperformed the FL polls in 2004 (0+ / 0-)

            But the final RCP average for the gubernatorial race in 2010 was Scott by 1% which matched his actual margin on the nose.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:48:19 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Sink wasn't ahead in polls (0+ / 0-)

            in any convincing way. IIRC, some polls showed her up, some showed her down.

    •  Just me or is state polling really shit this year? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLDemocrat, jj32, DCCyclone, bjssp, LordMike

      Lots of contradictory data both between pollsters and between polls by the same pollster. True, there is no such thing as uniform swing but there should still be some sort of rough linear sense to the numbers. That just doesn't seem to be the case it many instances.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:40:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  interesting to compare with 08 polling in FL (0+ / 0-)

      which suggested a McCain win was likelyuntil a large shift took place at the end of September.

      Obama looks much better on the FL average so far this cycle, level or slightly ahead for the most part.

      This one will likely be determined by events in the final two months of the campaign, but that's a very decent position for Obama to be in given that a Florida win is effectively a one-shot route to re-election.

  •  Ap-GFK confirms the trend of narrowing (0+ / 0-)

    although Obama still has the edge.

    49-48 approval(down from 53-46 in early May), and leading Romney 47-44, after leading 50-42 in May.

    link(PDF)  

  •  Am I really first with a poll today??? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, askew

    Florida, Q-poll, Obama up 46-42:  http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    Good stuff:  Obama up 49-44 on best for "economic interests" of "middle class;" 48-48 "deserves" reelection; and tied 45-45 on better on creating jobs.  Mitt underwater favorables at 39-43, Obama positive there.

    Bad stuff:  only 47-49 (slightly negative) job approval, and Mitt better 48-44 on the economy (but see alternative questions under "good stuff" above).

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:35:11 AM PDT

  •  I don't think anyone (4+ / 0-)

    has ever accused Dan Lungren of being the brightest bulb in the box.  No surprises here in his defense of Harris...

    Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free
    ¡Boycott Arizona!

    by litho on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 06:39:51 AM PDT

    •  Some Republicans have (0+ / 0-)

      (R commenters here have spoken highly of his intelligence)

      I personally don't really know much about Lundgren, and I've never heard him speak, but he did have the highest grade-level speaking style in Congress.
      http://www.npr.org/...
      Mostly because of a lot of tangential phrases in that sample I think, so it shouldn't really count.

      27, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:27:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why state polls look better than national polls (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chachy, David Nir

    This was going to be another diary in my Beyond the Margin of Error series, but it's too short so I'll put it here in abbreviated form:

    That difference that (used to?) be around between state polls and national polls, where Obama looks great in the electoral college but national polls give him a slim margin, can be attributed to low performance in safe blue Northeast states:

    This is from aggregated dkos polls, Romney v Obama question.  You can see nationally Obama is doing 3 points  worse than 2008, but just as well in swing states.  And which part of the country is bringing the national numbers down?  The seldom-polled deep blue Northeast.  

    Why?  Possibly unemployment.  In the Northeast, april 2012 unemployment compared to april 2011 unemployment rate is 0.96; south and midwest it is much better, 0.86, and west it is 0.90.

    What about Romney?  Comparing dkos 2011 numbers to 2012 numbers, %Obama changed in lockstep with Obama approval numbers in 11 regions of the country, so Romney is equivalent to Generic Republican.  In other words, Romeny didn't make a difference in the numbers from one region to another.

    •  That's interesting, but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      I'm not aware of any relationship between state-level unemployment or change in unemployment and Obama's approval or the change in his approval (see: Nate's "The North Dakota Paradox") nor am I aware of any historical relationship (John Sides has a post or two on this).  You're also comparing one poll to a polling average.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:35:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unemployment was only a possibility. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir

        State level numbers were really twitchy.  Only when I agglomerated into sub regions, and in this case regions, was I able to see any relationship.  But I wouldn't put too much emphasis on it.

        As far as comparing just one poll, well, it's actually 8 polls with N=8000.  So it's not too bad a comparison.  Also, you can see a similar pattern, actually, in the data from all polls recently, but there's many states that are not regularly polled, so I chose the dkos polls instead.

        •  What I meant is (0+ / 0-)

          that it's a comparison between polls from one source and a polling average.  I suppose the former can be seen as an average.  I'm really not a stats guy, so maybe it's fine.

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 11:34:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You are right (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Xenocrypt

            That that is a potential pitfall.  For instance, if in 2008, all the polls from the South were done by Rasmussen, while all the polls in the Northeast were done by SurveyUSA, you can immediately see the problem.  However, I did quickly look for this sort of effect and did not find one, although a more thorough analysis might find a small effect.

            It would be much better to compare only to ppp polls in 2008 - but there aren't enough of them.  Or, to compare to polling averages in 2012 - but there aren't enough polls in non-swing states.

  •  Re: Lungren (0+ / 0-)

    Paying people per each new registration is an invitation to cheating. Oddly enough - our recycled Governor Moonbeam didn't sign a bill that would have made the practice illegal.

    Lungren doubling-down on the crook running the "business" employing the poor bastards was stupid. Probably because he was distracted due to the fact that has a real fight on his hands after redistricting and a real contender in Dr. Ami Bera.

    (Who could always use a buck or two to switch the seat from red to blue, by the way)

    I want a living planet, not just a living room.

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:00:10 AM PDT

  •  Why isn't he just shutting up and letting Harris (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    take the fall?

    Because it's in on it, she has dirt on him, and she's privately threatening to take him down with her.

    Simple question, simple answer. You are welcome.

    sin and love and fear are just sounds that people who never sinned nor loved nor feared have for what they never had and cannot have until they forget the words

    by harrije on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:10:28 AM PDT

  •  FYI: No healthcare law ruling today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, tietack, askew
  •  AG can ignore Congress now. (0+ / 0-)

    Holder has been found in contempt of Congress -- short of high crimes and misdemeanors, he can pretty much ignore anything they say.  What are they going to do?  Charge him in contempt again?

    The may actually extend to the entire administration.  If we weren't already dysfunctional from the bogus Impeachment of Clinton in the 90's, now Congress is doing this crap.

    The Republicans won't be content until they've destroyed the entire thing and replaced it with a (puppet) monarchy.  With them in charge, of course.

    Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
    I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
    —Spike Milligan

    by polecat on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 07:55:15 AM PDT

    •  There are at least two things they can do (0+ / 0-)

      The first is to refer him to the Justice Department for prosecution (heh, I know). The second is to vote to find him in what's called "inherent contempt." That basically allows them to lock him up in the basement of the Capitol until the end of this session of Congress. Really. Google if you're interested.  

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:06:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right -- the Sergeant at Arms for the House is (0+ / 0-)

        going to lock up the attorney general of the United States in the basement of the Capitol.

        Uh huh.

        Between Harriet and Karl, I think that ship has sailed.

        Happy little moron, Lucky little man.
        I wish I was a moron, MY GOD, Perhaps I am!
        —Spike Milligan

        by polecat on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 09:16:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  538 cycle comparison (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, David Nir

    I pulled out a 538.com forecast from mid-June 2008 for comparison, and found that Obama's current position is very comparable to where he was then.

    At that point they had him leading McCain 252-157 in EV where the margin was greater than 5%. Currently it's 247-191 over Romney on the 538 November forecast. So the main difference is a greater number of "likely" Republican states; Obama still has about the same number of likely states as he did in 2008, indeed the only differences on his side are that at this point in 08 they had IA and CO with leads over 5% and MI as under. Republicans have shored up IN, MO, MT, ND.

    If you include "leaners" the position is actually a little better for Obama than in 2008, as they currently give him NV and VA which at that point 4 years ago were both in McCain's column.

    I doubt the final months will prove as favorable to Obama as they did in 2008, so I'm not expecting a final outcome similar to 4 years ago, but we can say he's similarly, perhaps slightly better, placed relative to where he was at this stage in the cycle in 08.

    •  The dynamics just seem so different (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      I continue to believe a comparison to 2004 is more apt. In that case the preseident is in a similar if not stronger position than the previous incumbent at a comparable moment. Then again, Romney isn't going dark in August.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 08:59:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  well if you're comparing with incumbent presidents (0+ / 0-)

        I'd agree that 2004 is the closest comparison in recent times (so far at least). But in pure polling numbers 2008 was also rather close until it broke strongly Obama's way after the Lehman collapse in mid-September. With 20-20 hindsight it looks like a rather comfortable win for Obama but it wasn't until the last month or so that it became clear he was going to win.

        So far at least the 2012 presidential race has been remarkable for its non-volatility, and it could well stay that way right until the end. I think there are probably only 3 things that might trigger a breakout, one of which is the SCOTUS decision on healthcare due imminently (others being a significant change in the economic outlook or a foreign policy crisis).

  •  "California, you really suck at counting votes" (0+ / 0-)

    Bowen's doing her best to make sure that every vote is counted. I don't begrudge any SecState that. And unlike some states in the Union, we actually care about counting every vote.

    I suspect that the delay is the high number of absentee voters and an election process that wasn't ready to switch to majority mail-in voting. November will be even more fun :-) I hope Bowen realizes that this is the dry run for the big show.

  •  It's Not Voter Fraud When Republicans Do It.... (0+ / 0-)

    When they do it, it's the voter's fault.  

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