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U.S. Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks outside K's Hamburger Shop in Troy, Ohio, June 17, 2012. Standing with Romney are Rob Portman (L), Speaker of the House John Boehner (3rd L), his wife Ann (3rd R) and his grandchildren. REUTERS/Lar
Campaigning in Ohio, John Boehner feels Mitt Romney's Bain pain (Larry Downing/Reuters)
The latest Washington Post/ABC News survey shows a dead heat of 47 percent each for President Obama and Mitt Romney, but if you look past the horserace there's some very bad news for Romney when it comes to how voters view his record as CEO of Bain Capital, particularly in battleground states.

Here's the numbers among registered voters throughout the nation:

Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?

Reason to support: 23
Reason to oppose: 24
Not a major factor: 50

Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

Did more to cut jobs: 42
Did more to create jobs: 37

On a national basis, the numbers are fairly mixed, with a slight tilt against Romney. But given that Romney's entire claim to the presidency depends on a positive perception of his time at Bain, a mixed result isn't good enough. The bigger problem, however, is that the election isn't a national one, and in the states that matter most—the states where President Obama and Priorities USA are hammering Romney hardest over Bain—Bain is becoming a clear negative.

Here's those same questions, but in the eight battleground states that the Washington Post has identified as tossups (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida):

Question: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?

Reason to support: 16
Reason to oppose: 32
Not a major factor: 49

Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

Did more to cut jobs: 34 48
Did more to create jobs: 48 34

These numbers essentially confirm the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showing the same sort of battleground Bain pain for Romney. The silver lining for Romney here is probably that there's still a lot of people who haven't decided one way or the other about Bain, but to the extent that voters have focused on it, it's a drag on Mitt Romney—and he still hasn't figured out how to turn the story around.

8:00 AM PT: I accidentally reversed the numbers in the battleground states cut/create jobs question. The correct numbers: 48 percent said Romney had done more to cut jobs at Bain, 34 precent said create jobs.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Well... (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, Supavash, JeffW, Matt Z, markdd, Fury, dougymi

    Romney answers the Bain question and turns it around like all GOP do with a $100 Million plus monthly fundraising haul and several news channel echo chambers...you attack your opponent and change the question.

  •  Hey Mitt! Ain't that a 'kick in the gut'!? n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Ky DEM
  •  Poll is still 47-47 nationwide (8+ / 0-)

    a net 3 point drop for Obama, though very likely statistical noise.  This poll likely understates Obama's support nationwide by about 3 points, but we should expect to see discrepancies between national and state polling because the campaign is only being fought in about 10-12 states or so.  I still don't think Romney will hit McCain's numbers in red states, so I think the real national lead for Obama is somewhere around 3-5 points, with an upside for Obama.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:36:34 AM PDT

    •  all 2008 polls were 2% underreporting for Obama (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JeffW, Matt Z, Fury

      I remember all the diaries disecting the reasons and the general consensus was

      1-  over representing repubs and under-representing dems as compared to actual voting % population..DEMS are a larger voting group than repubs

      2- not compensating for no land line people.....since pollsters only poll land line phone people they totally didnt take into account people who only use cell phones etc

      etc

    •  Okay (0+ / 0-)

      I think we're doing some spinning here.  This poll is not good news for Obama.  There has also been a slight move toward Romney in both trackers, and yeah I understand their flaws, and no there is no valid Zogby poll.  The jobs numbers may have something to do with it, and I fear that we were all a little too quick to say that his immigration decision helped him.  It points out the fallacy of the overnight polling on the immigration decision.  I think initially, people say well that's fair but as they process it and the economy does not recover then they change.  Even Tom has tweeted that immigration is hurting Obama.
      Yeah, I am an instinctive pessimist but I still don't like the Obama lack of program for the next four years, and the attacks on Romney need to be coupled with a definite program that makes him different than Romney.
      Where's the announcement of a Federal probe into the LIBOR scandal?
      Romney is the worst major party candidate in my memory, we can't lose to him.

      •  Oh please, of course this is good news, remember (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ

        that SC ruling on the ACA that was oh only 2 weeks ago? The subsequent attacks of it being the largest tax hike in history, etc? Well I wouldn't blame you if you didn't remember considering the amazing feat of team O of changing the topic on a dime. Given what had just gone down 47-47 is a win. Historically this is also exactly what happens with pres. re-elections again, there is NOTHING to be alarmed about.

        What you should be paying attention to are the battlestates - it's all about the battlestates and the VA poll is THE good news we've been waiting for. The chances of Romney winning against VA, CO, NM, OH, etc. are very, very slim. This is not spin, this is what Obama is focused on - not the national horserace.

        The 47-47 reflects more white men going to Romney and some women from the very states he won't win anyway.

        If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

        by DoctorWho on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 10:30:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So logically (0+ / 0-)

          If Obama were now trailing, you would say that it was good news.  You sound like Mark Halperin when everything was good news for McCain.  I said nothing about ACA.  I pointed out that it looks more like immigration may be hurting Obama some, by the numbers, and by Tom's tweets.
          The jobs report can't help. If you'll recall, Obama's numbers slid briefly after the last one, he needs at least 1 or 2 150, 000 job months going into November, and he's running out of time.  
          Almost no one is voting for Romney, but enough people don't think Obama is helping their lives, he may lose.
          The states will eventually move to the norm of the national polling.  They usually do.

          •  I already noted that I don't like the tie either (0+ / 0-)

            (relative to the 3-4 pt lead we've gotten used to) and yes it could be the jobs report, though I think this and most week-to-week fluctuations are more likely to be noise; but in any case it's nonsense that the states necessarily have to "eventually move to the norm of the national polling" -- all the ad money is being spent in the battlegrounds, and by every measure it is having an effect.  I'd be fine going into election day 47-47 in a national poll but leading by 8 pts in VA.

    •  47-47 is not good news... (0+ / 0-)

      I'd like to see the crosstabs, and see whether the sample this time would be more hostile.

      Still, there is plenty of evidence that the messaging is work, which is good news.

      Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

      by NoFortunateSon on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:26:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  And he's already proven that the Bain experience (7+ / 0-)

    ...does not translate into governmental-executive experience with his half term in MA.
    Being a partial absentee, blocking the Democratic legislature's efforts to turn things around, and dropping from 37th to 47th in job creation during his term....... well that just says this guy shouldn't be let anywhere near the Oval Office.

    Alright, maybe the little plastic Oval Office out back of the jobsite. The one that gets pumped out once a week.

    Everybody got to elevate from the norm....

    by Icicle68 on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:36:36 AM PDT

  •  Am I misunderstanding something? (6+ / 0-)

    In the battleground states:

    In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

    Did more to cut jobs: 34
    Did more to create jobs: 48

    That's not good for us, is it?

    "It does not require many words to speak the truth." -- Chief Joseph, native American leader (1840-1904)

    by highfive on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:38:15 AM PDT

  •  are these numbers right, (7+ / 0-)

    or are they reversed, accidentally?

    Did more to cut jobs: 34
    Did more to create jobs: 48


    "A recent study reveals Americans' heads are larger than they were 150 years ago but sadly there is no indication that the extra room is used for anything." - entlord

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:38:30 AM PDT

    •  Yes, the numbers are reversed from the original (0+ / 0-)

      WaPo link.

      It actually does say what we'd have expected from a population presented ads showing Mitt/Bain as outsourcers:  34%-create jobs v. 48%-cut jobs.

      "Push the button, Max!" Jack Lemmon as Professor Fate, The Great Race

      by bartcopfan on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:02:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney's speedboat photos on July 4th... (8+ / 0-)

    Pretty amazing anti-populist FU.

    Yes, I get that a huge, powerful motorboat could be seen as appealing to the NASCAR crowd, but still. This is a $150k + rich guy's toy. And people are hurting everywhere.

    That Romney's people felt this was worth the risk says a lot. They are gambling that the support of the .1% is worth more than directly fighting it out for the undecided ~30%.

    And they may be right.

    But I pray they're not.

  •  "Outsourcing Jobs, Offshoring Money" (8+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, kitebro, JeffW, Egalitare, Matt Z, Fury, Red Bean, askew

    A nice ad, right there. Thank you very much, DNC.

    Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre, mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað

    by milkbone on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:38:55 AM PDT

    •  They are effective because (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bartcopfan, Icicle68

      this morning the GOP has started to say the President is the "outsourcer in chief" because he outsourcesd some Stimulus money to overseas companies.
      Did he personally write those checks to overseas companies, or was it Congress after being lobbied by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that saw to it that was done?

  •  If Mitt Romney ran a brothel in Nevada... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sean Robertson, Matt Z

    where prostitution is legal, would that be a major reason why you would support or not support him?

    Do you think increasing the numbers of people who prostituting themselves for money is "job creation"?

    Maybe we need to focus on Robert Kagan's Social License as part of his License to Operate formulation.

    -We need Healthcare Reform... but i'm selfish, I Need Healthcare reform-

    by JPax on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:39:14 AM PDT

  •  I think you reversed the findings in battle ground (6+ / 0-)

    poll regarding creating or cutting jobs.  Otherwise Mitt would love those results.  

  •  Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble....nothing new (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tb mare, DEMonrat ankle biter, JeffW

    about this GOP.......especially with a dullard like Mittens.......Wrong Guy......Wrong Time.

  •  this will also I think help (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    make up for the money disparity.

    It's pretty clear Obama will bring in a ton of money, and he can target it on the 10-12 states that will be battleground states.

  •  I can just hear Rex Harrison singing to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bartcopfan, JeffW

    an Eliza Doolittle about the 'pain in Bain butting mitty down the drain'. I think he's got it. I think he's got it.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:42:26 AM PDT

  •  He needs a silver lining at 47-47? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheGreatLeapForward

    We are spinning through to China if we think this is at all good.  It's a lousy terrible frightening result and with more crummy job numbers coming plus the money onslaught, our beloved country is poised on the brink of Third-World status.  Nice job, half the voters.  Good thing Romney is having 'pain.'  If not, this thing would already be over.

  •  the "Bain Pain" done to the lyrics of "Name Game" (0+ / 0-)

    Romney Bombney mormannabanna bobanna.....

    Präsidentenelf-maßschach"Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:45:11 AM PDT

  •  Uhh Jed, these numbers don't look all that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bartcopfan, TomP

    good for our side.  Am I missing something?

    "It took us a couple of days because I like to know what I'm talking about before I speak." President Barack Obama 3/24/09

    by sfcouple on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:45:37 AM PDT

  •  Bain pains and more hurts (0+ / 0-)

    It would be nice to have so much money you don't even know where it is... (don't mean to make this about his money, but...)

    In an interview (yesterday) with Radio Iowa's O. Kay Henderson, the Republican nominee insisted he has little to do with his personal investments because they are managed by a blind trust.

    "I don't manage them," Romney said. "I don't even know where they are."   he actually said that

    What a scoundrel, or you pick your word.
  •  Nice to know... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Blicero, puakev

    I live in a country in which half the citizens are insane.

    Makes me feel so much better.  Not.

    Your flag decal won't get you into heaven anymore. John Prine -8.00,-5.79

    by Miss Blue on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:49:56 AM PDT

    •  Could be worse....... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LivesInAShoe

      I live in a state where the majority is insane, including the right wing governor!

      Some of us are sane here but we're outnumbered.

      Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so. Douglas Adams

      by Texnance on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:08:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Kos Article Reversed the Numbers (9+ / 0-)

    I clicked through to the article, and laboriously clicked next question until I got to this one.  For toss-up states it is

    Did more to cut jobs: 48
    Did more to create jobs: 34

    And good grief, does the WP make it hard to find that out!

  •  Um, is that a last question typo? (0+ / 0-)

    Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

    Did more to cut jobs: 34
    Did more to create jobs: 48

    That doesn't appear to be a negative

    "You don't have the right facts!"~My Tea Party Neighbor

    by Therapy on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 07:58:19 AM PDT

  •  I Will Go Out On A Strong Limb (0+ / 0-)

    And state for the record that Mitt Romney and his gang of money grubbing raiders never gave a flying fuck about creating a single job. They sucked these companies dry, and let the big bad goverment clean up all the wreckage.

  •  Jed: You reveresed two figures... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bartcopfan, Matt Z

    In the last toss-up question:

    Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

    Did more to cut jobs: 34
    Did more to create jobs: 48

    Should be:

    Question: In his work as a corporate investor, do you think Romney did more to (create jobs) or more to (cut jobs) in the United States?

    Did more to cut jobs: 48
    Did more to create jobs: 34

  •  This is exactly why I was saying back in April (10+ / 0-)

    that there really is no reason to wait until "people are paying attention" to begin working on Bain. The reason is because there are a lot of different facets to the story and it will take a while to explain them so that they sink in.

    that 50% "dont know either way" number is just folks who haven't gotten touched yet. That's why you need time and focus to touch them.

    The wonderful thing about the Bain attack, and I know I sound like a broken record here, is that once a swing voter hears about it, Romney is disqualified.

    Obama's path to election is straightforward: convince all the people who voted for him last time to vote for him again.

    But Romney has to flip a good chunk of those people away from Obama. The Bain attack makes that flippable chunk smaller and smaller, even with bad economic news.

    •  Yup, betcha the Gopers are missing Santorum (5+ / 0-)

      right now.
      Romney is a disaster and despite wayward Dem. surrogates, the Obama Team was right to keep pushing the accelerator on the Bain Story.

      I think it's surprising that people think Indiana will go for Romney this time. If we play ads about what Romney did to factories starting NOW, we can keep the state imo.

      When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

      by YoungArizonaLiberal on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:08:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree vehemently (4+ / 0-)

        with the Obama Campaign writing off Indiana and Missouri. He got enough of them to vote for him last time to win one of those and missed Missou by a hair. He should have gone back there and work on those states absolutely.

        •  Interestingly enough, Obama is pulling out the (5+ / 0-)

          stops in Arizona just for a test drive a.k.a jedi-mind fuck Mitt to see if he can get the state or at least pick up the Senate seat.

          I'm pretty confident we can get the Senate seat, as for flipping the state we are just as likely as Indiana and Missouri. If Obama gets AZ, he wins in a landslide.

          When the operation of the machine becomes so odious that you can't take part,you've got to put your bodies upon the gears;you got to make it stop.Indicate to the people who run it that unless you're free the machine will be prevented from working at all

          by YoungArizonaLiberal on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:18:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Always on point, 3B!...nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      brooklynbadboy

      If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

      by DoctorWho on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 10:33:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The real question: (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miggles, Red Bean, SBandini, kitebro, Matt Z, Byblis

    Why are the Job Creators creating so few jobs while sitting on record profits?   Everyone agrees, especially Republicans that the private sector not the government creates jobs.  So why is that goddamn Mitt Romney blaming Obama when it is clear to everyone that it is Romney's direct fault that private companies are not creating enough jobs?

    •  Because the president is black (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jack Hare

      The people have spoken and they're both named Koch. - Andy Borowitz

      by Red Bean on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:17:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The GOP Answer: (0+ / 0-)

      Right-wingers would say that while the Gov can't CREATE jobs, they can GET IN THE WAY of the private sector from creating them.

      Their answer to your question is simple: Obama & the Dems have created an environment that is hostile to hiring, which is why the job creators are sitting on their profits.  They're clearly waiting for the GOP to straighten things out... once they lower taxes on the 1% and get rid of all those pesky regulations, THEN they'll start creating all the jobs we need and all with be RIGHT in real America.

      For example, the loop holes aren't cutting it - we need to tear down those regulations so ALL miners can get black lung mining companies can create jobs.

      •  Republicans are in a real bind (0+ / 0-)

        You're essentially right.  Effective corporate taxes have been whittled to the bone so that businesses thanks to Bush and to Obama's 'stimulus' tax cuts are paying less in taxes than at any time in the last two generations.  After more than two decades of deregulation about the only regulation businesses have to follow is, "don't overtly kill customers or employees."  And they find this too onerous.  There really aren't too many taxes left to cut or regulations to jettison, but nonetheless the Romney shits are still yelling, screaming and spitting like there are.  

  •  Show us the returns! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Texnance

    Romney is delivering nothing but bogus answers on his tax and investment strategy, and it's time for the media to call him out for it. Either Mitt Romney is lying when he says he "doesn't know" where all of his offshore holdings were located or how much they are worth, or else he is a totally incompetent handler of his own finances and wholly unqualified to be the steward of taxpayer money as commander-in-chief. Romney is not providing honest answers or the whole truth. Why not just release his full tax returns and let the voters decide for themselves? Oh, right. That would mean the truth about Mitt's Bermuda billions would come to light and no one would vote for him. Oops!   http://www.sunstateactivist.org

  •  A sizable group: "not a factor"? Polls weighted (0+ / 0-)

    toward Republicans will result in answers such as Romney's ruthless Bain record, not being a factor.... I bet if this was Obama's ruthless record it would be a factor.

    I find it hard to get excited about any of these polls. No wonder the President and Romney are neck and neck despite months of the former Governor damaging himself through his utterances and revealing himself to being utterly devoid of common ethics.

  •  Oh No!....Jed made an error.....to BiPM's (0+ / 0-)

    Pit O' Doom for three weeks.......mandatory....lol

  •  Reaching those weak minds (0+ / 0-)

    There is a need in this election cycle to "deprogram" those dull minded, go with the flow, my vote doesn't matter anyhow crowd. We need to hammer Romney as a destroyer of jobs.

    People somehow identify corporate CEO types and businessmen in a positive light. We need to put Romney solidly in the destroyer category. We can't let up on him with Bain, his tax havens, outsourcing jobs, and inability to identify with the poor as a reason to vote for Obama in November.

    BAIN => BANKRUPTCIES => LAYOFFS => LESS JOBS

    ROMNEY = WEALTHY = TAX CUTS for the RICH not MIDDLE CLASS

    We need more Middle Class Politicians in office and less Millionaires running Congress for Billionaires on Wall Street.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:31:36 AM PDT

  •  Who is the third guy in the picture (0+ / 0-)

    with Romney and Boehner? I've seen him in the background of other Republican pols but don't know who he is.

    Anyone able to help me on this?

    "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:34:03 AM PDT

  •  Romney logo... hmmm.. (0+ / 0-)

    The more I see the Romney logo, the more I imagine seeing the "R" representing a "line of people waiting" ...

    - to apply for that one job opening...
    - to get food at a charitable food pantry...
    - to get housing assistance that isn't there anymore.

    All of that in his colorful, red white and blue "R". It tells a future that isn't so bright for the rest of us.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:35:01 AM PDT

  •  create more brackets (0+ / 0-)

    Instead of raising the rate for everything above $250K tack on a couple of brackets above that with much higher rates than at the low end.

    Democrats regularly let themselves be bamboozled into drawing class lines too low, thus forcing far too many people onto the Republican side.

    The poverty level is way too low, for example.

  •  speaking of shit yet somewhat R leaning polls... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bridav58

    General:
    Wash Times/JZ Analytics
    Obama 42
    Romney 43

    no real change since last WT poll

    Florida:
    Rasmussen Reports
    Obama 45
    Romney 46

    no change since last RA poll

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

  •  Thank you Citizens United (0+ / 0-)

    This starkly demonstrates the effect of money in politics.  Where O has spent money, the facts have gotten out, and the facts matter.  If our side could afford to pay for that messaging nationwide, it would be a much different race.

  •  "Good chance" that supporters will switch vote (0+ / 0-)

    Obama supporters - 4%

    Romney supporters - 12%

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