When was the last time a Republican won the Presidency without winning Florida ? or without winning Ohio ? or without winning Virginia ?
Test your own historical / political knowledge - guess before reading more
First, I want to point out that this does not mean that it cannot happen.
However, it does indicate that it would be unlikely.
We are only looking at 3 states : Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.
The source for this information is www.270towin.com .
Keeping this in mind, I was fairly confident that it would be a while back for these 3 states. After all, in the last decade, a Republican did not get 270 electoral votes, required to win the Presidency, without winning Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. In 88, George H W Bush won all 3. 76 is out because Carter won. In 72 Nixon dominated the map. In 68, Nixon won all 3. In 64, LBJ won . In 60, JFK won. In 52 and 56, Ike won all 3, he dominated the map also. In 48, Truman won, and prior to that FDR won every election since 1928. In 1928 Hoover the Republican won, but he won all 3.
In 1924, Coolidge, a Republican won, but he did not win Florida or Virginia.
And a Republican is never won the Presidency without winning Ohio. Let me repeat that: A Republican has never won the Presidency without winning Ohio.
Not John Kasich, the Republican governor of Ohio, is remarkably unpopular and his anti union legislation which Willard supported went down in flames, losing by 20 points in this pro union state. The Ohio is economy is better off than other states, manufacturing is doing better in Ohio, and the auto industry has revived in large measure due to President Obama's rescue. All of these factors give President Obama an edge in Ohio.
Play around yourself and find out how long it has been since a Republican won without your own chosen swing state.
Will Willard's running mate be Rob Portman, Tim Pawlenty, Marcos Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Bobby Jindal, or some one else ?
I am now leaning towards Tim Pawlenty . What do you think ?
4:56 PM PT: for those who are giving me such a hard time: what are your states that Willard can win in 2012 that add up to 270 electoral college votes and do not include Ohio or Florida or Virginia.
Please use the website www.270towin.com
and you will see how unrealistic paths to the Presidency for Willard are without Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.
6:20 PM PT: to get to 269 if President Obama retains Ohio, Rmoney must win : CO, IN, VA, FL, NV, IA, NC, and MO. And then the Republicans must retain the House of Representatives. Then Rmoney wins the White House.
Or Rmoney must win PA or NM (in addition to the other states above) in order to get past 269 .
Difficult to imagine him winning all of those states.