Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

8:23 AM PT: Sorry about the scheduling snafu with the Morning Digest. We should have everything worked out from here on out, though.

8:47 AM PT: HI-Sen (PDF): Apparently "Lingle On Demand" is a ratings disaster reminiscent of the immortal "Emily's Reasons Why Not." I'd say we have dueling polls, but rather than dueling, the new DSCC and Honolulu Star-Advertiser numbers are ebony and ivory in perfect harmony: both show Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono crushing former Republican Gov. Linda Lingle by 19 points, 52-33. Indeed, the DS poll (conducted by the Mellman Group) has Lingle actually bleeding four points of support since their last survey. Perhaps most damning, Hirono performs better among Republicans than Lingle among Democrats.

Lest you contest the DS' partisan numbers, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser provides backup. They show Hirono smashing Lingle 58-39, and also offer primary numbers; Hirono is far ahead of "Democrat" Ed Case as well, 55-37. Lest Case somehow emerge from the primary, the poll says he, too, would destroy Lingle, 56-38.

Late-night is not for everyone, Governor Lingle.

8:53 AM PT: NJ-Sen (PDF): If you asked the horserace junkie hive-mind to design numbers for a hypothetical New Jersey poll, you'd probably come up with something like this. You'd have Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez up by a healthy, but not insurmountable margin. It being New Jersey, though, you'd want a high number of undecideds, giving the GOP false hope that they can steal one here even though everyone knows they really can't. So let's say 42-32 among registered voters.

You'd note that Menendez is still not that well-known statewide even six years into his Senate career—give him favorables of 36-20, say. Of course, no one knows his opponent, Republican state Sen. Joe Kyrillos. You'd figure Barack Obama is doing fine here, and that New Jersey voters don't like Mitt Romney any more than the rest of the nation does; you'd expect Obama to have a double-digit lead and be close to 50%, if not over. Say he's up 51-38.

In other words, everything in Monmouth University's latest poll is exactly what you'd expect, with the possible exception of particularly strong favorables (52-33) for GOP Gov. Chris Christie. Note that Monmouth also employed a likely-voter screen; its effect on the Senate race is minimal (Menendez would lead 44-35) but more pronounced in the Presidential (Obama's lead drops to 50-42).

9:22 AM PT (David Jarman): Dark money: CPA is DOA? No, not quite, but close to it: the Campaign for Primary Accountability -- the mysterious Super PAC that targeted incumbents of both parties with little regard for ideology or policy, and that succeeded in claiming a few scalps (including Silvestre Reyes and Jean Schmidt) -- admitted that they're basically done for the year. They told Politico that their contributions have dried up (down to $71K in June, compared with $640K in March), meaning that they don't have the resources to play in the last few primary races that they'd been interested in, like the ones involving John Conyers and John Mica.

At the other end of the dark money spectrum is Karl Rove's American Crossroads, which continues to rake in millions per month. Bloomberg is out on Thursday with a lengthy profile of the organization, which doesn't break any new news but provides a lot of interesting color. And if you still aren't familiar with the differences among the various flavors of dark money groups -- 527s vs. 501(c)(4)s, and what they can and can't do -- it's a helpful starting point for that.

9:32 AM PT: CT-05: According to the Hartford Courant, "several" more people purportedly involved in the alleged fundraising scheme that led to the arrest of Democrat Chris Donovan's former finance director in May are expected to be arrested themselves on Thursday. Explains the Courant:

Authorities have not released the identities, but sources said those arrested include Joshua Nassi, Donovan's former campaign manager; Paul Rogers, who is affiliated with two, so-called roll-your-own tobacco shops in Waterbury; and one or more people who wrote conduit contribution checks to Donovan's campaign.

The charges arise from allegations that people in the Waterbury area with a financial interest in the tobacco shops directed illegal contributions to Donovan's campaign in the belief that he could kill proposed tax legislation that could hurt their businesses.

Obviously this isn't good news for Donovan, who has always denied any knowledge of the alleged wrongdoing. But it seems pretty predictable that other shoes would drop, if only because the original charges described a conspiracy, and you obviously can't have a conspiracy of just one dude. Robert Braddock, the fired finance director, has had almost two months to provide further evidence to the authorities; assuming the Courant's sources are correct about who's about to get arrested, the case still doesn't touch Donovan.

9:35 AM PT: IL-10: Well, the NEA and IEA deserve everything they get after making this move: The National Education Association and their state-level affiliate, the Illinois Education Association, just endorsed GOP freshman Bob Dold. If these two teachers unions want to con themselves into thinking that a Republican-run House is in their best interests, then I just have nothing to say.

9:39 AM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: It's that time of year where Public Policy Polling is about to switch over to a "likely voter" model, and transparent as they are, they take the time to explain what that'll mean. The change shouldn't be very abrupt: they'll still be drawing on the same lists of people who voted in 2006, 2008, or 2010, but changing the intro from "If you're not a registered voter, hang up now" to "If you don't plan to vote in the Presidential election, hang up now." They've also apparently hired a bunch more phone-dialing robots, as they're planning a stepped-up release schedule for the closing months. Click through for all the details.

10:04 AM PT: FL-13: So I guess the D-Trip does indeed have a bunch of autodialers whirring away in the basement, and they're working overtime. They've put out another "DCCC IVR" poll, this time showing cretaceous-era GOP Rep. Bill Young leading Democrat Jessica Ehrlich by "only" a 49-35 margin. (At least the sample size is a little bigger than their CA-47 survey, 308.) Obviously the point here is to show that Young is under 50%, for whatever that's worth. The big problem for Ehrlich, a former congressional staffer, is that she's raised very little: just $86K in the last quarter. That was actually more than Young, though, believe it or not, and he only has $325K cash-on-hand. But even in a swingy district like this one, it's going to take a lot more than that to beat an institution like Young.

10:11 AM PT: WI Recall: Is this the last word on the total cost of the Wisconsin recalls? It sure sounds like the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign has put together the most comprehensive analysis to date, gathering in data and estimates from just about every source out there. The final tab for all the recalls—governor, lieutenant governor, and state senate, in both 2011 and 2012—was $138 million, with about $85 mil spent by Republicans and $53 mil spent by Democrats. Far more detailed breakdowns are available at the link.

10:36 AM PT: ND-AL: This bit of loveliness comes courtesy of the local blog North Decoder, which recently busted GOP House nominee Kevin Cramer's Rep. Rick Berg's communications director for RT'ing a racist tweet:

Kate Bommarito RT of tweet which reads 'I wonder if Einstein had Barack Obama in mind when he coined the term 'Black Hole?' (Assuming he coined it, I really have no idea)'
As you can see, Kate Bommarito passed along this tweet from conservative writer Joe Herring to her own Twitter feed... which is now appears to be deleted in its entirety. Bommarito herself, however, still appears to with Cramer's House campaign Berg's Senate campaign. [UPDATE: I mixed up Kevin Cramer with the man he's trying to replace, Rep. Rick Berg.]

10:45 AM PT: MI-14: A new poll from Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting for Fox 2 News Detroit gives Rep. Gary Peters a commanding lead 45-27 lead over Rep. Hansen Clarke in the Democratic primary, with Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence at just 10. However, the polling memo breaks down numbers to the hundredths of a percent (a ridiculous attempt at false precision that's a pet peeve of mine), and there's also a lot of demographic weirdness. For one, two-thirds of the respondents were female. For another, only 15% were below the age of 50. So while I could easily believe the toplines (Peters has run a vigorous campaign while Clarke's been much more sedate), take the whole poll with an appropriate helping of salt.

11:03 AM PT: And to see what I'm talking about with regard to Clarke's campaign, he's skipping all candidate forums (and has been doing so for a while)—a rather stunning decision for someone who from all appearances is an underdog in the race.

11:33 AM PT: NC-Gov (PDF): I don't quite get why the North Carolina-based conservative think-tank Civitas keeps bouncing back and forth between two pollsters, the non-partisan SurveyUSA and the Republican firm National Research. I guess it's not too surprising that the GOP outfit keeps showing wider leads for Republican Pat McCrory: The latest Civitas/Nat'l Research poll once again has him up 10 over Walter Dalton, 47-37, unchanged from the 48-38 they had in May. But in between those two polls, SUSA conducted one for Civitas that put McCrory up just 46-44 over Dalton, and in an earlier May poll (for a different client), SUSA had it a five-point race. PPP's been splitting the difference, with McCrory up seven the last two times it went into the field.

11:52 AM PT: PA-Sen, -AG, -Gov (2014): PPP's latest hodgepodge of polling information is out. Apparently Pennsylvania's ongoing Senate race is dull enough that it's relegated to PPP's weekly dirt pile rather than getting its own post.

Actually, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's numbers aren't especially strong in this poll. He leads moneybags GOPer (and leading candidate for "Most Generic Name Ever") Tom Smith 46-36. That's pretty good, but it's down from a more commanding 49-33 advantage in PPP's last outing. Casey's approvals are middling, though that is largely due to mediocre support from his own party. He's still a strong favorite, but this one has the potential to be at least interesting given Smith's personal financial resources.

Casey's in terrific shape, however, compared to most Pennsylvania Republicans. His Senate seatmate Pat Toomey enjoys similarly mediocre approvals, and he's the lucky one. Democrats enjoy advantages in the generic Congressional ballot (47-44), as well as in this fall's races for AG (41-34), Treasurer (37-33) and Auditor General (36-34). Should Democrat Kathleen Kane indeed prevail over David Freed in her bid for attorney general, she shall be the first Democrat ever elected to the office. Finally, GOP Gov. Tom Corbett's numbers are in the toilet; his job approvals are 32/49, and he trails a generic Democratic opponent 45-39. Lucky for him, his reelection bid won't be until 2014, but Corbett has his work cut out for him.

12:14 PM PT: AZ-Sen: Republican robopollster Magellan finds Rep. Jeff Flake leading businessman Will Cardon 45-23 among likely GOP primary voters, with just a few weeks to go before judgment day. That doesn't sound so promising for Cardon, and if it's accurate, time has almost run out for him, but it's a lot better than what Magellan saw the last time they surveyed the race (all the way back in November), when they had Flake up 52-4.

12:29 PM PT: MA-Sen: Bloombo Alert! (Does His Bloominess merit "alert" status? Maybe a yellow alert or lime-green alert?) Anyway, Mike Bloomberg is, of course, endorsing Scott Brown, which has everyone all atwitter about the super-dreamy independent bipartisany significance of this move. I wonder if it isn't more damning that Scott Brown has a New York billionaire, whose computer system bearing his name is displayed on every desk on Wall Street, raising money for him. Seems to play right into Warren's wheelhouse.

12:34 PM PT (David Jarman): AZ-06: The freshman-on-freshman Republican primary in the 6th has turned into yet another establishment-vs.-institutional-tea-party battle, though, oddly enough, most aggregators place establishment pick Ben Quayle a smidge to the right of FreedomWorks' pony, David Schweikert. If you'd expect Schweikert (who's new to Congress, but a veteran of county-level government) to have an edge over Quayle, who barely won the AZ-03 primary in 2010 and doesn't seem to have much to offer but a famous name... well, you'd be right. The first poll we've seen of the race, a new internal from Schweikert's campaign by National Research, gives him a 49-33 lead over Quayle.

12:41 PM PT (David Jarman): CT-Sen: Hmmm... publicly saying that your campaign is dead in the water is usually a prelude to your donors ignoring you even more, but the exact opposite seems to have happened to Chris Shays. He claims that after he said a few weeks ago that he didn't have enough money to run TV spots, the money from supporters started flowing in, enough so that he's actually produced a 30-second ad and is paying to run it on Fox News for the weeks leading up to the GOP primary. (The ad itself is a remarkably unmemorable intro spot based around a testimonial from his wife.)

12:45 PM PT: CA-30: As the Berman-Sherman freight trains barrel toward each other, Dem Rep. Brad (Sherman) has a new internal poll out from the Feldman Group showing him leading fellow Dem Rep. Howard (Berman), 46-29. Oddly, 5% of respondents say "other"—even though there won't be any alternate options on the November ballot, thanks to California's new "top-two" primary—and 21% are undecided. If these numbers are right (and I'm inclined to more-or-less believe them), then I really have to wonder how Berman will make up the gap. Sherman has over six times the cash ($3 mil vs. less than $500K), and the super PAC that "helped" Berman before the primary has put out the most comically crummy ads ever. (Seriously: I guest-lectured about campaign ads for a college class earlier this month and played this ad; in disbelief, one student asked, "Is that really a real ad?")

12:46 PM PT (David Jarman): FL-07: One other redistricting-forced Republican member-vs.-member primary where the endorsements follow a clear establishment/tea-party dynamic is the race in the 7th in Orlando's suburbs, between ancient veteran John Mica and freshman Sandy Adams. Adams had already been dubbed a Mama Grizzly by Sarah Palin, and now just also got the backing of fellow loudmouth Allen West, while Mica got the backing of Mike Huckabee.

12:49 PM PT: MI-Sen, -Gov (2014): A year ago, when Pete Hoekstra first got into the Senate race, the Josh Kraushaars of the world immediately got the vapors about how this was a BIG GET for the GOP. Here we are three months and change before election day, and the Incredible Hoek is still getting smashed. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow leads Hoekstra 52-38, and sports an even healthier lead over Republican Clark Durant, 51-34. This is not because Stabenow is particularly formidable—she has approvals of 44/41—but rather because Hoekstra, well, sucks, with underwater favorables of 28/37.

One group of people does appear to like Hoekstra: Republicans. In the primary, the Incredible One is cruising, 51-17 over Durant and a couple Some Dudes.

The news ain't all bad for the GOP: Republican Gov. Rick "Michigan" Snyder has rehabilitated himself to some degree, his approvals jumping to 42/44 from an abysmal 37/52 in May. Snyder also leads a generic Democrat in a hypothetical reelection bid, although it's doubtful his 42-40 edge over Generic D is going to scare any serious Non-Generic Ds out of the race. Still, Snyder's in OK shape now, where he looked like a dead duck a couple months back, and he's got two years before he faces the voters again.

12:57 PM PT: MI-Init: PPP also has numbers on several important ballot measures that may go before Michigan voters this November. Tom Jensen sums it up:

• Voters are nearly evenly divided on Snyder himself and they're also nearly evenly divided on one of his main goals at the moment, a second bridge connecting Detroit and Windsor. 41% of voters support it with 42% opposed. Independents support the bridge 44/34, Republicans are evenly divided on it at 42%, and Democrats oppose it 36/52. [...]

• Democrats will like the 44/34 support for a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to collective bargaining, and the 50/30 support for an initiative mandating that 25% of Michigan's electricity come from renewable sources by 2025.

• Republicans will like the 40/33 support for an initiative requiring either a statewide vote or 2/3rds support in the legislature for any increase in state taxes and the 41/31 support for keeping the state's emergency managers law, which was initially very unpopular.

Democrats also still lead on the generic legislative ballot, 45-37, but that's down noticeably from an outsize 50-35 edge in May.

1:45 PM PT: AZ-02: State Rep. Matt Heinz, who faces an uphill battle as he tries to unseat Rep. Ron Barber in the Democratic primary, is out with his first ad. The spot recounts Heinz's efforts to help a make sure a woman with breast cancer received proper treatment, and his work to pass a law to guarantee access to treatment for women with breast or cervical cancer. It's a good story, but the ad has weak production values, and the narrator sounds very much like Heinz himself, so it's disconcerting when he refers to Heinz in the third person.

1:45 PM PT (David Jarman): MI-Sen, MI-11: Rand Paul offered up a two-fer on underdog endorsements in the Wolverine State today. He backed Kerry Bentivolio -- who's pretty openly a Paulist -- in the Republican primary in the 11th, and Clark Durant -- who's not really linked with the Paul camp, but is probably the most tea-flavored member of the field -- in the Republican Senate primary.

1:48 PM PT: HI-Sen: Democrat Mazie Hirono is out with an ad touting her commitment to education, saying that when she first came to America, she "didn't read or write English." I think Hirono's personal story is so compelling that I wish it were the subject of the full ad.

1:57 PM PT: PA-Sen: GOP Senate candidate Tom Smith is out with his first general election ad, a mostly positive spot that starts with a dig at Dem Sen. Bob Casey over unemployment, then goes on to talk about Smith's record as a "job creator." The only really interesting note is that Smith describes himself as a one-time "union coal miner"—not too many Republican office-seekers have positive things to say about labor unions. (Smith later went on to found his own coal company.)

2:02 PM PT: WA-01: Reporter Joel Connelly likes to call the super PAC Progress for Washington "MamaPAC," since of course it's run by Dem candidate Laura Ruderman's mother. And they keep spending and spending, this time with another $38K on mailers. All told (including a TV buy and production costs), MamaPAC has shelled out $277K on the race.

2:24 PM PT: TN-03: Citizens for a Working America, Inc.—a non-profit that's not to be confused with Citizens for a Working America PAC—is spending a sizable $165K on TV ads designed to kneecap dairy magnate Scottie Mayfield, one of two candidates trying to unseat Rep. Chuck Fleischman in the GOP primary. It's a lacerating spot which says that Mayfield is "good ice cream—mmhmm!" but as the on-screen cone melts, Mayfield gets blasted with his own words, admitting he "doesn't have any specifics" about what he'd like to accomplish. I'm not sure who's side they're on, but James Harrison at Nooga.com reminds us that the footage used here was originally posted to YouTube by the sister of Weston Wamp, the third wheel in this race. Of course, it was free for anyone to use....

Meanwhile, Mayfield is up with a negative ad of his own, making him the first candidate to go that route (and earning him some blowback, because he'd previously promised to stay positive). The spot hammers Fleischman for voting "one out of four times with Obama," according to a new CQ study, "the highest of any Tennessee Republican in the House." Also making an appearance is a bullshit (of course) use of Obama's "you didn't build that" line. A long campaign season just got a lot longer.

2:35 PM PT: TX-23: When naming your new super PAC, you get to throw at all the usual rules of grammar and syntax, so say hello to the awkwardly-named Texas America 21st Century PAC. I don't know who they are (good luck Googling), but at least is on the side of the good guys. They're spending $27K on radio ads to help Pete Gallego in Tuesday's Democratic runoff against Ciro Rodriguez.

3:03 PM PT: Chamber of Commerce: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce continues its broad-spectrum assault on Democratic Senate candidates, with huge new ad purchases targeting eight different races. Two non-Dems are swept up into the assault: Missouri Republican Sarah Steelman—whom they compare to Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill; I presume the Chamber would prefer businessman John Brunner—and Maine independent Angus King. Here are links to each ad, along with the approximate size of the buy where available (note that production costs are included). The grand total is just shy of $6 million:

FL-Sen (Bill Nelson, $1.7 million) | ME-Sen (Angus King, $400K)

MO-Sen (McCaskill/Steelman, $600K) | MT-Sen (Jon Tester, $257K)

NM-Sen (Martin Heinrich, $250K) | OH-Sen (Sherrod Brown, $914K)

VA-Sen (Tim Kaine, $1 million) | WI-Sen (Tammy Baldwin, $846K)

3:19 PM PT: CT-05: Public relations exec Dan Roberti, the young third wheel in the Democratic primary, is getting some outside help from a new super PAC called New Directions for America. Roberti's father, Vincent Roberti, is a wealthy, well-connected lobbyist, and the Hartford Courant notes that some of the group's donors "have connections" to pops. The details are at the link, as is the ad, which tries to ding Donovan over the campaign contribution investigation, but it mostly goes after Elizabeth Esty because she "opposed the Democratic budget, supported cuts in education and healthcare, while protecting tax breaks for millionaires" during her time in the legislature. Size of the buy: $132K.

3:32 PM PT: While we're on the subject, the expected further arrests in the investigation of Donovan's campaign did indeed happen on Thursday afternoon. The precise details of who got charged are available at the link, but as the Connecticut Mirror notes:

The indictment leaves Donovan's status unchanged: Three weeks before the Democratic primary, he is neither accused of wrongdoing or of having knowledge of wrongdoing, nor has he been assured he is not a potential target of the investigation.
Some transcripts cited in the indictments involve arrestees mentioning Donovan in passing, but there's still no one who's said he had anything to do with the alleged scheme.

3:39 PM PT: FL-06: GOP Rep. John Mica's decision to seek re-election in the neighboring 7th left a red open seat in the 6th and, consequently, induced a multi-way Republican primary. We haven't heard a whole lot of news out of this St. Augustine/Daytona Beach-area seat, but with the August 14 primary now just a few weeks away, we're starting to see a little motion. A new super PAC called Coastal Florida's Future is spending $32K on radio ads to help Jacksonville city councilman Richard Clark.

3:48 PM PT: ND-Sen, VA-Sen, WI-Sen: On Tuesday, the Dem-aligned Majority PAC came out with three new Senate race ads, and now we know how big the buy was in each case. North Dakota: $67K; Virginia: $466K; and Wisconsin, $174K.

3:48 PM PT: NM-Sen: The NRDC is spending another $39K on anti-Heather Wilson mailers, doubling their outlay.

3:50 PM PT: TX-36: Citizens United is spending $21K on radio ads for ex-Rep. Steve Stockman, who faces financial advisor Stephen Takach in Tuesday's GOP runoff.

3:51 PM PT: TX-Sen: The Texas Conservatives Fund is spending another $500K (has to be on TV, for sums that large) to stop Ted Cruz in Tuesday's GOP runoff.

3:55 PM PT: MO-Sen: Now or Never, a super PAC which exists entirely for the purpose of helping Sarah Steelman win the GOP nomination, is spending $218K to attack John Brunner. They have a little-used Twitter account and a barren Facebook page, so I'm not seeing a copy of the actual TV ad anywhere.

4:02 PM PT: NV-Sen: The LCV is out with an "issue ad" attacking GOP Sen. Dean Heller for voting "nine times to give tax breaks to billion dollar oil companies" while supposedly accepting $200K in campaign contributions from the industry. The spot uses a pretty good visual, showing a pair of hands in the "Senate Washroom" under a tap; the water turns into oil as it runs over these mitts-without-a-face.

4:10 PM PT: ND-, NV-, NM-Sen: Crossroads GPS, the worst charity in the world™, is out with a trio of new negative ads going after Democratic Senate hopefuls. Forgive me, but I just watched eight Chamber of Commerce attack ads in a row, so I'm gonna prevail on you to click through to The Hotline's story and browse the links yourself. They also have details on the reported size of the buy in each case.

4:15 PM PT: NJ-Gov: With a little over a year to go until his first re-election campaign, some non-profit called the Committee for Our Children's Future is supposed spending $1.2 million on TV ads fluffing GOP Gov. Chris Christie as a "bipartisan reformer." The spot uses the word "bipartisan" so many times it's induced semantic satiation in me. Politico sez: "The new round of buys will bring the group's total ad spending to over $6 million in the last 11 months."

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Political Director, Daily Kos

    by David Nir on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:22:35 AM PDT

  •  It 102 days till election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bharat, lina

    I hope you are motivated to do your civic duty by voting ,lots of you have already made up mind ,who you will support ,it just a matter of you voting  

  •  HI-Sen: New poll from the Honolulu Star Adviser (4+ / 0-)

    shows Hirono leading Case 55-37. It also has a match up between Hirono and Lingle, but it's behind a pay wall.

    http://www.staradvertiser.com/...

    And here is Hirono's new ad.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:42:39 AM PDT

  •  Mitt Romney's actual "apology tour" (15+ / 0-)

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/...

    scathing quote: "Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere."

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:45:44 AM PDT

  •  initial unemployment claims (10+ / 0-)

    Back down to 353k this week from 388k, which itself was up from 352k the week before. July is the month that auto plants typically shut down for a time as they switch over from one year's models to the next, and apparently the timing this year was different from what it normally is. The 4-week average is 367k, which is lower than it was for most of the spring but a bit higher than it was in the 1st quarter. It suggests that job growth in July may be somewhat better than it was in the spring.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:48:12 AM PDT

    •  We're already on (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, bythesea

      to the period that corresponds to the August release. But this news is definitely encouraging. I've given up trying to map these releases to the jobs numbers, though, as based on conspiracy's research, the relationship between them doesn't seem all that tight, at least not month to month.

      •  It was much stronger late last year and early this (7+ / 0-)

        But of late correlation seems to weaken somewhat. Going back to January 2011, monthly average initial claims at left, official job creation at right.

        Jan    427,000    110,000
        Feb    393,000    220,000
        Mar    395,000    246,000
        Apr    423,000    251,000
        May    427,000    54,000
        Jun    428,000    84,000
        Jul    412,000    96,000
        Aug    411,000    85,000
        Sep    418,000    202,000
        Oct    405,000    112,000
        Nov    396,000    157,000
        Dec    376,000    223,000
        Jan    377,000    275,000
        Feb    367,000    259,000
        Mar    365,000    143,000
        Apr    384,000    68,000
        May    376,000    77,000
        Jun    385,000    80,000
        Jul    364,000   

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:53:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  correlation (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          The correlation in levels from one year to the next is weak, but it's generally been true that declines in claims are correlated with increases in job growth and vice versa.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:05:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  But if it stays in the 360k range (0+ / 0-)

          Do you think it means we see 100k job growth for July?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:24:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I was probably the last one to find this out (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, itskevin, abgin

    but apparently, the HI primary is August 11, not mid to late Sept like it typically is(Aug 11 is a Saturday, so that's interesting).

    So that seems to limit the time for a nasty Dem primary, and allows more time for party unity and healing to occur.

  •  Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown refuses to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IndianaProgressive

    endorse President Obama.

    http://www.politico.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:02:11 AM PDT

    •  I really hate crap like this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, jj32, bumiputera

      While I certainly understand that Democrats will have a wide range of opinions, and I'm probably more forgiving than most for people that stray from the party line on this or that issue, if you can't support the head of your party, why are you listing that party affiliation on the ballot.  While I don't really like it, I think it's acceptable for him not to get overly involved in the presidential campaign (although a big turnout from Dems in Jacksonville could be important if Florida hinges on a very narrow margin), not to say whether or not you're going to support your party's candidate for President is not acceptable.

      And, I don't think it's good politics.  I think it's cowardly politics.  If you're planning to run as Democrat in a swing or Republican area next time, the right wing is going to hammer you for being a Democrat anyway, so why would you also potentially alienate your base.

      Mayor Brown's election was one of the municipal-level races I was most happy about when it happened.  Not any more.

    •  This worried me when he ran (5+ / 0-)

      As long as he doesnt endorse Romney, I guess it's okay.

      •  yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dsh17, IndianaProgressive

        he best not turn into Artur Davis part deux

        "I'm never apologizing for who I am" — Teddy Montgomery

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:21:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I kind of agree. (0+ / 0-)

        I'm not sure what, exactly, makes him a "conservative, pro-business" Democrat, but whatever. If Jacksonville is as conservative as Politico and the Tampa Bay Times suggest it is, I guess it might be necessary.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:16:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not really conservative (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, pademocrat, lordpet8, bjssp

          The problem is the city government got fused with the County government back in the 1970s, as a way of keeping the white establishment in power. Thus the mostly minority, and pretty impoverished city of Jacksonville, is generally governed by a cabal of really wealthy (their last mayor was Romney-level rich), white Republicans from the suburban portions of the county. It's extremely polarized. Alvin Brown only won because the insurgent teabagger beat the more mainstream Republican who was the business candidate. Businesses in the area, along with Republican suburban women concerned about education cuts, coalesced around Brown's campaign and fueled from a mostly unknown, deep underdog, to an upset winner.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:55:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for this information. (0+ / 0-)

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:49:34 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Jacksonville is conservative (4+ / 0-)

      He only barely won under weird circumstances to begin with. This is probably a good move for him if he wants to get reelected. If we're not going to fault McIntyre for refusing to endorse Obama we certainly shouldn't fault Mayor Brown.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:24:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Any word (0+ / 0-)

    on Hirono's House seat?

  •  More evidence that King is the defacto Democrat: (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.pressherald.com/...

    Goofy ad.  Silly use of harpsichord.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:18:25 AM PDT

    •  Americans don't care about government spending. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Ads like this are hilariously ineffective because people just don't CARE. We've been saying this for months. The focus on the deficit and debt is ridiculous and results in no political advantage. The people who are concerned about the rate of government spending are the people who weren't going to vote for anyone but conservative Republicans anyhow.

      18, FL-24 (home) MD-07 (heart). UCF sophomore, Organizing for America Summer Organizer, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

      by tqycolumbia on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:26:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I love this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, bythesea, bjssp
      "(The chamber) is the national representative of business and the free market today, and Charlie is proud to have received their endorsement," Dutson said.
      Um, no it's not. In fact we don't even know who the Chamber represents, and the interests of a small cabal of businesses should not outweigh the social agency of the American public. In any case, the fact that his supporter mouths off about free-marketers supporting Charlie Summers for Senator is really indicative of how much a right-winger he is. Is Snowe really supporting this guy?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:54:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is like trying to convince Hawaiians... (5+ / 0-)

      That Sen. Inouye is a bad senator.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:42:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it's an awful ad (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sacman701, SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades

        It's condescending and I get the feeling this kind of thing mainly just tends to annoy Mainers.

        The real strategy for Republicans should be to try and prop up Cynthia Dill's campaign. At this point though, I'm not even sure why she doesn't drop out, as all she can possibly, maybe, on an outside chance, do, is play spoiler and spend a very conservative, 3-time Congressional race loser to the Senate for 6 years.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:04:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PPP switches to LVs this weekend, barely changing (5+ / 0-)

    their methodology:

    Right now when we call people for a poll the introduction is 'this is a short survey about some important Florida issues. We appreciate your participation. If you're not a registered voter, please hang up now.' Now the introduction will be 'This is a short survey about the Presidential election in Florida this fall. If you don't plan to vote in the Presidential election, please hang up now.' That's the entire shift. We will continue to use people who voted in at least 1 of the last 3 general elections (2006, 2008, or 2010) as the basis for who we call, as we have been doing throughout the cycle.
    They say those expecting a big shift in the repubs favor are likely to be disappointed.
  •  Repost: NH Union-Leader asks Romney to (11+ / 0-)

    reveal his tax documents:
    http://www.unionleader.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:19:35 AM PDT

    •  Wow, that's a sign (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17, itskevin, KingofSpades, gabjoh

      the issue is getting really bad.

      Here's my meme Romney re: his tax returns.

      Photobucket

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:03:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm just too lazy to actually make into a meme. (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:04:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen Nevada (10+ / 0-)

    Obama 50-45. Leans D.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:44:18 AM PDT

    •  lean D if not likely D (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, SaoMagnifico, askew

      If Ras says it's 5 it's probably between 5 and 15, and in the past NV polls have been notorious for lowballing Dem numbers as Dems there are far better organized than the GOP. That said both campaigns are still playing there so it's probably at least closer than MI and WI. Of the states Romney is playing in now, I suspect that NV will be the second to drop off after PA.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:02:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  NV GOP organization is a mess, to put it mildly (0+ / 0-)

        The Paulites have taken over the Nevada Republican Party organization, and Americans for Prosperity meddled in a state legislative race in the Las Vegas area, and the national AFP organization forced to reveal who their donors are as a result of AFP not having a Nevada subsidiary and AFP violating a quirk in Nevada's campaign finance laws.

        Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:12:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  National AFP organization may be forced* (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

          by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:13:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  While the NV GOP may be FUBAR (0+ / 0-)

          Isn't the "Team Nevada" attempting to get stuff done there and succeeding?  I haven't been keeping a close eye on it, but that is just how it seems to me.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

          by Daman09 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:40:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  adtnext has covered them (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Daman09, DCCyclone

            And his answer was no, not really. The Tea-party/business Republican shadow party has been poorly organized and failed to accomplish it's rather modest early goals.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:43:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That is no surprise at all (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin, tietack, MBishop1, ArkDem14

              The surprise would be if they really were ramping up effectively.  To do that from their disastrous starting point, they almost certainly would have to invest millions into paid field.

              A disorganized party with a candidate who has no organic activist support isn't going to be able to pull together effective volunteer-based field.  This is what happened in VA-Gov 2009, with Deeds and the state party both epic disasters, doing nothing at all on the ground until it was waaaaay too late.  Someone like me took one look at that operation and shunned it, even while polls showed a reasonably competitive race.

              A "shadow" campaign starting from the ground up in the summer doesn't even have contact information for the thousands of activists and other regular volunteers.  Starting from scratch so late is just not doable without just paying people to do all the work.

              I'm more confident than ever that Nevada is ours.  One thing the political media ignores is how strikingly Obama keeps getting a lot of polls in the state breaking 50, and never below 48.  And he leads every single time.  Job approval isn't always great, but it's close enough to 50 to support the ballot test results.  All these things distinguish Nevada from all the other designated "tossup" states.  Even in Virginia, where Obama has run strong, he's not polling so high nearly as consistently, even though there have been some very good ones and more than in most other tossups.

              And I remain convinced that Obama will run stronger in Nevada than Colorado.  The demographics in Nevada are just better.  In particular, all the talk of growing Hispanics manages to wrongly overlook at very large black vote in the state.  They were 10% in 2008 (compared to 7% in 2004 and 6% in 2006 and 2010) and will show up in the same numbers this time...if that percentage drops, it will be only because Hispanic growth brings down all other groups' vote share even despite matching 2008 turnout.  Even further, Rey Texeira and Jon Judis blogged recently that their research found that, based on the Census Bureau's current population surveys, voting-eligible adults are now 40% nonwhite in Nevada, a staggering increase from their 32% vote share in 2008.

              Colorado is trending our way, but isn't nearly as good for us demographically as Nevada.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:05:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Excellent comments, DCCylone. (0+ / 0-)

                This is why I want to know more about ground game than polling most of the time.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:55:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Only need 35% of whites in Nevada to win? (0+ / 0-)

                Back of envelope math

                75% of non whites (at 40% of total) = 30%
                35% of whites (at 60% of total)        = 21%
                                                                        ___
                                                                          51%

                (per the relevant exit poll, Obama got 45% of whites in Nevada in '08 -- and over 80% of non-whites)

                "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                by tietack on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:07:09 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  No because I don't believe... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  tietack

                  ...we'll have 40% nonwhite vote share, we'll leave votes on the table in the form of typical lower nonwhite turnout.

                  But it will be more than the 31% the exit poll pegged in 2008, when nonwhite VEP was 32%.  I just don't see the actual vote climbing to 39 or 40, it somehow feels too optimistic.

                  On the other hand, the final Nevada 2010 exit poll said Hispanics were 16% of the total, compared to 15% in 2008......a sharp and stunning reversal from the norm of nonwhites dropping off much more heavily than whites in midterms.  That might've had to do with increasing nonwhite VEP, with that fact offsetting the drop in turnout to keep Hispanic vote share higher.

                  Or, the exit poll could've just been wrong.

                  But while I routinely question exit polls, I'd be wrong to assume they're wrong all or most of the time.  I think they're sound enough that in most cases they're accurate, at least when they "smell" right.  Nevada smells right the past few cycles when one considers the sharp climb in nonwhite VEP.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:53:42 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Okay, half way (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    DCCyclone

                    75% of non whites (at 36% of total) = 27%
                    37.5% of whites (at 64% of the total)= 24%
                                                                         ____
                                                                              51%

                    Nevada is not a Southern state. Does anyone believe that President Obama will get less than 40% of the white vote in Nevada (especially after getting 45% in '08 -- if you believe the exit poll, of course)

                    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
                    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

                    by tietack on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:27:57 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yes Obama could end up sub-40 w/Nevada whites (0+ / 0-)

                      Whites in the rural interior West vote as strongly Republican as white Southerners, and enough of Nevada's whites still are part of that rural interior western culture for Obama to finish below 40.

                      Rory Reid was in the 30s with whites, as was Jack Carter.

                      Granted, right now I think Obama is polling at or a little above 40 with Nevada whites.  And I think it likely he ends up no lower than 40.  But sub-40 is still plausible.

                      But what kills the GOP is that Obama's white-total gap is the largest ever in Nevada.  He had a 10-point gap last time (55% overall vs. 45% with whites), and it likely will be a dozen points or so this time.

                      The more I think about Nevada, the more I think there's no way Romney can win, and Berkley probably is in better shape than anyone realizes.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:35:23 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  With high nonwhite vote share, yes (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  itskevin, bumiputera

                  Nonwhites will vote down the line for Democrats.  It's a real problem for the Nevada GOP, they still seem blindsided and captive to their hyperconservative rural base.

                  I do think Berkley will overperform public polls because of nonwhite turnout and voting behavior.  Nevada has become a hard state to poll because of it.

                  In fact, right now I think we'll pick up both Nevada and Massachusetts, with a de facto pickup in Maine.  Those three are still more likely than holding North Dakota or een saving McCaskill, IMO.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:56:25 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The issue is making sure they vote (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera

                    for offices other than President. There was a severe undervote problem in Nevada in 2008, most pronounced in NV-03. Obama carried the district 55-43, but Dina Titus scraped by 47.5-42.3. That can't happen again, especially in NV-3 and 4 this cycle.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:08:32 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Do we know for a fact there was a big undervote? (0+ / 0-)

                      That data should be available through election results, the Nevada SoS site is decent that way I think.  But I haven't checked.

                      Nevada offers "none of the above" as an actual ballot choice, and that holds down major party vote share...it really seems to have a psychological effect, people feel like they have permission to choose against all the choices.  That's a different psychology from leaving an office blank.  It's possible that there were more NOTA votes downballot than for President, and those aren't undervotes, they're deliberate.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 07:40:41 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  There were 4 third-party candidates (0+ / 0-)

                        that got about 10% of the vote. No information of how much NOTA received.

                        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

                        by HoosierD42 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 11:50:20 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  That's not an undervote (0+ / 0-)

                          Those folks didn't want Titus.  Hard to overcome that, not the same as people voting for POTUS and leaving.

                          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                          by DCCyclone on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 08:17:47 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

    •  Maybe only Likely D in terms of 10-15% lead (0+ / 0-)

      but Safe D in reality.

      Nevada's equivalent is West Virginia.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:06:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Cue a Raz senate poll (0+ / 0-)

      showing Heller up by 15 gazillion.

      •  Racked with the unforgivable scandal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        of joining with Harry Reid and her opponent Dean Heller to save the only kidney transplant center in the state, while her husband happens to be a nephrologist himself, Berkley is arrested by AFP officials and charged with aiding and abetting death panels as well. Senator Heller wins reelection by default.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:59:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rasmussen: Nevada - Obama 50-45 (11+ / 0-)

    The last three polls in Nevada are Ras, We Ask, and Americans For Prosperity(!), and even they average out to 5 point Obama lead.

  •  GOP Pinal County Supervisor candidate quits race (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, KingTag, askew, pademocrat

    after it was uncovered that he likely committed blatant voter fraud:
    http://www.azcentral.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 09:50:25 AM PDT

  •  This is a moral and ethical dilemma (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    in the 5th district and for progressives who continue to support Mr. Donovan. Chris Donovan is a progressive, he has a progressive record, and he should have been endorsed by DailyKos and other progressive organizations on the basis of his record.

    But as I write this, the number of arrests related to false reporting to the FEC, illegal contributions, and a pay-to-play scheme, have gone from 6 this morning to 8.

    The indictment shows communication from the campaign manager to his legislative aide (Read paragraphs 81 and 82) to kill the roll-your-own bill. The Donovan legislative aide was the only one (in the legislature) who was against bringing up RYO in the legislature in special session.

    Read the indictment here: http://www.scribd.com/...

    I know that many DailyKos contributors give modest amounts of money to these campaigns, and they should. We need progressives in Congress. But I think that it behooves DailyKos and other organizations to make sound candidate recommendations, especially when members have a limited amount of money to give each month.

    There are many other progressives out there who are worthy of a DailyKos endorsement and who not under an FBI investigation.

    •  Dude, (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      you really seem invested in this particular race. I've noticed you've only commented on it, nothing else. Are you working for the campaign? Volunteering?

      •  I've been following (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        DailyKos for the last ten years. I first followed the nascent progressive movement, while in my teens, after the 1999 Seattle "Turtles and Teamsters" WTO protests. I remember the phrase the lesser of two evils was still evil. I supported the living wage movement of the early 2000s and still do.

        I cheered on Dean in 2004, even after Iowa. I closely followed DailyKos in 2006 when they targeted districts that the DCCC wasn't going to challenge - and the DailyKos community and the small dollar donors gave the Democrats the majority. Now that was a night! Donna Edwards winning that primary in 2008 was awesome too.

        For me, it's about integrity in elections that DailyKos and its members have worked for over the years. And they make it happen with small money donations and cultivating little-known candidates. But there has to be accountability and integrity that progressives must protect and when we see wrong, we address it. You don't turn the other way.

        From the primary and congressional elections that I've followed on DailyKos, I understand the misses, the tactics that were tried and succeeded (or failed), and the polls that I've held onto thinking that we were going to win but then eventually, when the numbers came in, we were let down.

        It's political integrity and good government and we need to demand high ethical standards from all of our candidates, especially at this time. Progressives demanded it in 2000, in 2004, in 2006 & 08; it's just as important today as it was then.
         

  •  Teachers' unions are rabidly RW here in Illinois (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, JGibson

    There are quite a few local teachers' unions, particularly in central and southern Illinois, that are run by a bunch of people who vote straight-ticket Republican simply because they are opposed to abortion rights.

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:40:25 AM PDT

  •  Who won the PPP Polltopia (0+ / 0-)

    Yesterday?

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:41:44 AM PDT

  •  Casey 46-36 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, askew

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 10:52:49 AM PDT

    •  Wow. I believe this is a bit weaker (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, jj32, pademocrat

      than Rasmussen had Casey.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:05:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully The Sample Was Right-Leaning..... (0+ / 0-)

        As the same poll had Obama up by only 6 in PA, which is smaller than I would have expected as well.

        •  49-43 isn't that bad (0+ / 0-)

          It's about where I'd expect, taking undecideds to split 50-50 it's a 53-46 margin.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:34:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  That 6-point Obama lead looked right to me (0+ / 0-)

          That's in line with the totality of polling, most polls have said mid-to-high single-digits.

          And it's consistent with campaign activity, as Pennsylvania is the one and only Kerry state where OFA keeps targeting for ads.  That says a lot, they really do think Pennsylvania is the only Kerry state with potential to flip.  And that tells me it's closer than the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin which I'm confident are high single-digits to low double-digits, with no ads there.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:46:58 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Toss in PA's voter suppression efforts, (0+ / 0-)

            which so far haven't been blocked, OFA had better be worried and had better keep spending there IMO.

            Oh yeah, plus the recent revelations that the outfit PA hired to "educate" voters is totally Repub dominated. Ugh.

            •  Dems need to focus on getting people's IDs (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701

              Let the lawyers work with the chief individuals in the party organizations on the legal side.

              In the meantime, I'm disappointed, based on what I've seen, that there hasn't been a push to get people IDs, especially in Philly.  There should be, starting a month ago.  Yes it's blatant vote suppression, but you don't just cry about it and accept it, you do all things, not just some things, to overcome the obstacles.  So fight the law and work to meet its requirements at the same time.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:11:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  They're advertising (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            in New Hampshire too, no?

            •  Yup, I forgot about that one! (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              Yeah, that, too, is a Kerry state getting Obama ads.  I forget about it because it's on a geographic island, it's small with few electoral votes, and it's an obvious tossup rather than a state whose competitiveness can be debated.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:55:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  What about New Hampshire? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            Or am I confusing targeted ads with ads in general?

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:57:21 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think Pennsylvania (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            has the potential to flip in the sense that it is always close and it needs advertising because a loss there can't be made up for as easily as a loss in, say, Iowa could be.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:04:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  UT-04: The CoC is backing Matheson. (6+ / 0-)

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:06:07 AM PDT

  •  Indiana House Democrats will meet at 2:30 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IndianaProgressive

    today in Lafayette to vote to oust Democratic Leader Pat Bauer. Howey says that Rep. Scott Pelath (D-Michigan City), Ed Delaney (D-Indianapolis), Matt Pierce (D-Bloomington), Terri Austin (D-Anderson), Linda Lawson (D-Hammond), and Charlie Brown (D-Gary) are all involved in ousting Bauer. Howey also says that Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott is playing a role to get Bauer out. Rep. Linda Lawson (D-Hammond) would take over as Democratic leader if Bauer is ousted for the time being.
    Howey should have updates: http://howeypolitics.com/

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:10:07 AM PDT

    •  Why? (0+ / 0-)

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:22:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Many Democrats do not like (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, ArkDem14

        how Bauer handled the 2010 elections and his leadership during the 2011-2012 legislative session. They think the party needs a new face going into the 2012 elections, which are going to be a disaster for Dems in the House. They want to try to not make it as bad for them.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:33:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Variety of Reasons (0+ / 0-)

        Some members of the caucus are still upset with how he handled the walkouts of the last two years (which were necessary but politically harmful to many members, not to mention it hurt their wallets with all of the fines they got from skipping work). Several members also believe he's just gotten too old and been at the head of the leadership for too long. I certainly commend Bauer for holding such a fragile caucus together the way he has, a caucus that cobbles together liberal inner-city Democrats, rural/conservative/downstate Democrats, and auto-belt Democrats. It's definitely bad publicity for us, but it throws our state party into chaos and could further gamble our already sketchy chances in the Governor and Senate races this fall. It also opens up the potential to send us below 30 seats in the State House, which would give the GOP a super-majority in both chambers. Anyone who says our state party isn't a wreck (i.e. among the top five worst Democratic state parties in the country) hasn't noticed what's been going on.

        "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:39:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What Evan Bayh giveth (0+ / 0-)

          Evan Bayh taketh away.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:03:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some members were upset that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          he continued to put big money behind some members that were more or less doomed 30 days before the election (Bischoff, Robertson, Michael, Blanton, and the Oxley and Tincher open seats), where the money could have went to some of the narrow losses like the Evansville area seats, and turned those around.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:05:28 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Bauer Ousted (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      I think this is the right move.  For those of you not familiar, Pat Bauer has been in the General Assembly for 42 years (despite being only 68 years old).  He represents in many respects an older, more outdated image of the party.  Now, I'm not a Pat Bauer hater, and I think in some respects he did a good job both as Speaker and Minority Leader.  But he's seen too much as the past -- both by people in the party and independents we need to appeal to.

      As several of us from here have said, Dems in the GA may be as few as 30/100 after the fall.  It's time to re-brand the party with some new faces.  I think this is a move in the right direction.

      •  Surely they can't keep Democrats that (0+ / 0-)

        low, not with demographic and political trends in the state the way they are.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 02:07:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, they came out with a hell of a ... (0+ / 0-)

          gerrymander for the state house and senate districts.  I think in the long term, especially if the GA is as nutty as I think it's going to be next session or two (or lots!), eventually many areas will swing back to us.  But everything from Marion County districts to the Reg to southern Indiana, we got dicked over and good in redistricting.

          •  How did they screw you over in Marion (0+ / 0-)

            County? And are the Democrats working towards an amendment to put legislative redistricting in the hands of an independent panel?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 02:20:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Such a move (0+ / 0-)

              Would have to come from the legislature.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

              by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:02:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  The GOP got Democrats even worse (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              in Lake County. They put four Democrats in two seats, and drew themselves two GOP leaning seats to take their place.
              But what they did in places like Evansville, Terre Haute, Anderson, Muncie, Ft. Wayne, and Bloomington was to concentrate the strongest Dem precincts into one district and then chop up the rest. Any areas of Democratic strength were also diluted by GOP voters in many other areas of the state. Worst case scenario is a 74-26 GOP controlled IN House. And the Senate could go 39-11 GOP after 2014, where Sen. Richard Young (D-Milltown) and Lindel Hume (D-Princeton) face redrawn districts, and may retire. Plus, they made Sen. Frank Mrvan (D-Hammond) in a district that he could lose in a bad turnout. And the Vigo County seat held by Sen. Tim Skinner (D-Terre Haute) is not a sure thing in a good GOP year if they were to get a strong candidate there. Worst case in the Senate, and this is really worst case is 41-9 GOP.

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:17:11 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think it shows a rebrand (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        I think it just shows party infighting and disarray 3 months before the election. What's done is done, but I still don't think it was right. And I am by no means a Pat Bauer fan either. But I think we should have waited until after the election.

  •  According to Twitter, the Mayor of London (12+ / 0-)

    is now mocking Mitt Romney at some event. I do wonder if that helps Romney to have them foreigners making fun of him, or is it just an embarrassment for Romney, particularly given that the bulk of his criticism is that Obama has insulted the UK/hurt our relationship.

    Probably dont have to tell anyone here, but both the PM and mayor of London(Boris Johnson) are conservatives.

    Update: apparently the "mocking" from what I can tell, is Johnson telling the crowd "Mitt Romney thinks we arent ready. Are we ready?" Crowd cheers. Dont know if he said anything more. Either way, not a great start for the trip for Romney.

    Johnson also made another joke: There is enough gold and silver in London to bail out Spain and Greece. :)

  •  Pennsylvania PPP. (7+ / 0-)

      Democrats lead the generic ballot 47%-44%, and Kane leads the Republican by 7% for Attorney General. A generic Democrat leads Governor Corbett 45%-39%.
      I am hoping and expecting Joe Sestak to challenge Corbett. He has already defeated two incumbents (Weldon and Specter), why not a third?

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 11:47:18 AM PDT

    •  Bob Casey might be the strongest candidate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      for Gov, and it's probably a position he wants(he ran in 2002).

    •  I think Allyson Schwarz might (0+ / 0-)

      be the best candidate, as she's a well-known face in north Philly and MontCo, and she has a reputation for being a monster fundraiser. She can always take on a western PA Democrat as LG to balance the ticket and hold the ship there.

      Bob Casey would probably be the best candidate though. Corbett would be toast is Casey ran.

      Interesting though, that since the 1968, when an amendment allowing Governors to run for a second term was passed, no incumbent governor has lost or chosen not to run for a second term.

      Milton Shapp (D) 1971-1979
      Dick Thornburgh (R) 1979-1987
      Robert Casey Sr (D) 1987-1995
      Tom Ridge (R) 1995-2001
      Ed Rendell (D) 2003-2011
      Tom Corbett (R) 2011-present

      Casey Sr. actually lost 3 Democratic primaries before he finally got the nomination on his fourth try, running under the slogan "The real Bob Casey" (please stand up?), ironically because a nobody who didn't campaign but had same the same name won the a statewide Democratic primary based on for some other office and almost won the general. That 1986 campaign was pretty repulsive though, attacking Bill Scranton with an infamous attack ad nicknamed the "Guru Ad". And portrayed Scranton as a hippie and drug addict for his long-standing interest in transcendental meditation. I always knew there was something very unlikeable about Casey Sr. At least his son is much more agreeable and willing to put the abortion issue on the back-burner and even compromise on it.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:27:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

      Glad to see that Kathleen Kane is up, despite me still being sore about Murphy coming up short (and Clinton intruding on that race, like so many others...). I actually hope that Bob Casey runs for Governor in 2014 and appoints Joe Sestak to his Senate seat should he manage to win, though it seems like a 2018 run by Casey is more likely (if a Democrat doesn't win the seat first). If that doesn't work out, then I hope Sestak runs against Pat Toomey in 2016.

      "You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into." -- Me; The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:40:40 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  All pretty good. (0+ / 0-)

      I hope we win A-G.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:21:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Those downballot numbers excite me (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, supercereal

      I've never cared about downballot Pennsylvania offices, I've barely ever cared about Governor, all being since I've never lived in the state.

      But since redistricting affects who controls Congress, and who controls a state controls redistricting, I'm now looking ahead to future Pennsylvania prospects.  We especially need to win the 2018 (yes, 2018, not 2014 although winning then makes 2018 a lot easier) Governor's race to level the map in the next round in 2021.  And that means building a bench now, which means winning those downballot state offices.

      So I hope we can pull off these races from A.G. on down this fall.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:42:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ND-AL: I don't understand how that is racist. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Then again, I don't understand what the fuck that is supposed to mean in general. This, yet again, reminds me of that "Simpsons" episode where President Bush spray paints a sign to call out Bart and Homer as bad neighbors, but ends up confusing everyone.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:06:26 PM PDT

    •  Seriously? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Chachy

       I have noticed that some of my friends are incapable of understanding the most obvious of racist sentiments. It's like they are unable to see that anything beyond "Black people are...negative stereotype" as racist. Racists don't say those kinds of things anymore, because they know they will be ostracized. But their racism comes out consciously or subconsciously. Frankly, calling a Black man a "Black Hole," is pretty damned obvious...

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:24:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I thought he was also trying to pun off "asshole" (0+ / 0-)

        And doing a terrible job at punning.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:30:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He is (0+ / 0-)

          The idea is that Black Hole is a contraction of Black Asshole.

          And it was Stephen Hawking too, btw.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 02:51:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't doubt his intent was racist, (0+ / 0-)

        but I don't see the specific purpose of his comment. It was as if he had created a new racist term, but nobody, or at least not me, understood it. That was my point.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 03:16:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I believe some of us called this (10+ / 0-)

    MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research): Romney d. Obama (45-44)

    MICHIGAN (PPP): Obama d. Romney (53-39)

    I wonder who is organizing this ingenious little farce of trying to trick the media into thinking a state that neither campaign or their allies are devoting real resources to is competitive. The Michigan news media? Do they want in on some of that ad money?

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:08:53 PM PDT

    •  Believe it or not, I think polling is just BAD (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, GradyDem, SaoMagnifico, ArkDem14

      I don't think anyone has an agenda, these are just really bad pollsters.

      EPIC-MRA is the dangerous one to the extent anyone cares about a media storyline (I'm tired of "narrative" and now use "storyline"), although I don't know that anyone should care about that.  EPIC-MRA seems to be the pollster that the Chuck Todds of the world actually trust, even though they shouldn't.

      There's no question both campaigns are acting like PPP is right and the others are all wrong.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:38:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Sen: new Kerrey ad (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, KingofSpades, abgin, SLDemocrat

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:16:07 PM PDT

  •  Joan Walsh recounts Romney's finer (8+ / 0-)

    moments of political aptitude:

    I’ve called Romney “gaffe-tastic” before, but I found myself shocked by his tone-deaf, condescending remarks in London. I mean, we expect it in this country. Romney’s Olympics gaffe made me think about when, campaigning in Pittsburgh, the candidate insulted a local bakery by disdaining its baked goods. “I’m not sure about these cookies. They don’t look like you made them,” Romney said to the woman next to him. “No, no. They came from the local 7/11 bakery, or whatever.” In fact they came from the local Bethel Bakery, whose owner later told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell he was offended by Romney’s remarks.

    Or when he visited the Daytona Raceway in Florida during a rainstorm and insulted fans wearing plastic ponchos. “I like those fancy raincoats you bought,” he said. “Really sprung for the big bucks.” Bill O’Reilly later suggested Romney’s comment sounded “elitist,” to which Romney replied he’d just wanted to wear a “garbage bag,” too. And while we’re on the NASCAR topic: Romney was also asked if he followed the sport. “Not as closely as some of the most ardent fans, but I have some great friends who are NASCAR team owners,” Romney responded.

    Or how about the time he talked to unemployed voters while campaigning in Florida last year, and told them, “I should tell my story. I’m also unemployed.” (Romney’s estimated tax returns showed him earning almost a quarter-billion dollars in 2011.) Or the other time he commiserated with the unemployed and economically insecure by saying, “There were a couple of times I wondered whether I was going to get a pink slip.”

    Then there’s that bizarre interlude with black voters in Jacksonville, Fla., during the 2008 campaign, where he broke out into “Who Let the Dogs Out?” and remarked on a child’s necklace with “bling, bling, baby!” (Maybe that one doesn’t count, because it’s hard to argue Romney was sincerely courting black voters.)

    You can find these kinds of baffling, insulting gaffes going all the way back to his first Senate run, when he tried to charm a woman voter in Waltham, Mass., who was reluctant to shake his hand. “I know, you haven’t got your makeup on yet, right?” he told her, awkwardly adding, “You do, you do.”

    http://www.salon.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 12:49:32 PM PDT

  •  Re: Michigan (8+ / 0-)

    Is the campaign to stop this absurd tax amendment going full steam? I mean this is an issue even more important than the emergency managers and collective bargaining issues.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 01:03:19 PM PDT

    •  No (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dc1000, bythesea, DCCyclone

      There hasn't been much going on with the ballot proposals except for the bridge one.  The guy fighting the bridge has been doing an ad campaign that has been going on for over a year (probably closer to 2 years now).  I haven't seen any ads for any of the other proposals.   The EM proposal does get news coverage because of the court battle though.  

      I really hope the 2/3 majority proposal loses.  It would be a disaster.  I'm hopeful that it still has a chance of losing since it only has 40% support and there are a lot of undecideds.    

  •  Howey has reported that the following (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14

    Democrats have shown up in Lafayette to vote to oust Minority Leader Pat Bauer:
    Pelath, Fry, Neizgodski, Riecken, Dembowski, White, Welch, Brown, Sullivan, Day, DeLaney, Lawson, Grubb, VanDenburgh, Pierce, Moseley, Dvorak, Klinker, Dobis and Reske. Terri Austin is also expected (she makes 22).
    This is a quorum of 21 needed for the vote. More may arrive. Interestingly, 8 of these members are not seeking re-election to the House. Also, the other 3 members from St. Joseph County are there. Also, all the black members from Marion County are not present from this count.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 01:18:29 PM PDT

  •  It's offical, Pat Bauer has been ousted. (5+ / 0-)

    Rep. Linda Lawson is now the minority leader and controls the State House account.

    http://indianapublicmedia.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 01:30:57 PM PDT

    •  I am really shocked that Bauer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      seems to be accepting this. Maybe Democrats can move ahead and try to salvage something in the House in 2012.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 01:40:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What a bunch of idiots (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, DCCyclone, SouthernINDem

      Despite being an Obama state we are going to be reduced to the politics of a deep southern state because of the incompetent hacks in control. We will never control the state house or senate within any near time I can see.

      We need sweeping reforms. I really wish Sam Locke would have gotten the state party chair back when he floated a run after Parker planned to step down. We need some fresh blood, a reformer type to shake things up.

      I just hope this doesn't kill Donnelly's chances. At this point I see him as being the best chance for victory in Indiana this year.

       

      •  One would have thought the departure of (0+ / 0-)

        Evan Bayh and the 2010 slaughter would have produced a change of leadership. Maybe the point of being completely irrelevant at the state level may prompt Democrats to make some changes.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:55:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WOW! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, dc1000

    NEA endorsed Bob Dold?? Are you kidding me??

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 01:34:02 PM PDT

  •  Priorities blocked from using Olympic footage (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, jj32, tommypaine

    http://sports.yahoo.com/...

    Both IOC and USOC made complaints.  I say good as the ad sucked.  Also the seem to be trying to sell it as a positive as they got assurances from the USOC and IOC that Romney will not be using any footage in any pro-Romney ads either.  

  •  For those on the edge of their seat (5+ / 0-)

    wondering whether Illinois is going to be a swing state...

    Obama leads by 20, 51 to 31 (Crains/Ipsos)

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/...

    26, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 02:26:04 PM PDT

  •  Jose Hernandez Endorsement. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, jj32

     Wow, I did not realize he was such a progressive. He's a keeper. If manages to beat Denham, and I think it's possible, he would have great statewide potential.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 02:43:13 PM PDT

  •  ME-Init (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, bythesea, jj32, KingofSpades

    the final wording for Maine's ballot initiative on same-sex marriage has been revealed

    “Do you want to allow the State of Maine to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples?”

    Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 03:13:48 PM PDT

    •  What does polling look like on this? (0+ / 0-)

      It only narrowly failed last time correct?

      •  Where've you been? (0+ / 0-)

        Haven't seen you in forever! I thought you got lost haha

        20, Male, NC the best state ever! Majoring in Piano Performance.

        by aggou on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 03:42:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  polling has been good to us (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, bythesea, drhoosierdem

        PPP in March found Mainers support gay marriage 54-41 and support 47-32 "a law that would allow 'marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.'" Take from that what you will. (FWIW this ballot initiative does have those exemptions, but that's not immediately obvious from the wording.)

        meanwhile a Critical Insights poll for the Portland Press Herald from earlier this month found Mainers in support 57-35.

        While support for gay marriage won't correspond 100% with support for the ballot initiative (oddly enough), it should correspond mostly. So now that the wording is finalized I'll be interested in seeing more polls from here on out. Either way, I think Maine is our best bet out of the four states voting in November. (Following by MD, then WA, then MN IMO)

        Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:02:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  IN-09: I know this is superficial, but in (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin

    the last week Shelli Yoder's campaign page has had 700 additional likes. She's now at 1,868 and has long surpassed Todd Young. I'm not sure why or how this happened.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:30:19 PM PDT

    •  Is it possible (0+ / 0-)

      she's paying for them? It seems like we hear a lot about this sort of thing nowadays, but I don't participate on social media sites and don't understand technology so I wouldn't know how we could tell. Would you say it looks like there's an uptick in actual participation on her facebook page (or in her campaign) or just more likes?

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:49:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Possibly (0+ / 0-)

        Anthony Gemma's social media pages have about five bazillion subscribers/followers, I'm pretty sure that's some Newt Gingrich deception shit there.

        Voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:58:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  yoder seems like a strong candidate who could (0+ / 0-)

        knock off young in a gop presidential midterm. The thing for her to do is to not wave around the party label because it is a rural district and people who don't follow politics as much may think she's a republican because she has a republican background in that she was a Miss Indiana and very much a "girl next door" from a small town.

        This is what got George McGovern elected three times in a conservative state. They knew he was one of them.

        also known as "AquarianLeft" on RedRacingHorses

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 07:56:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  IN-09 is not a very rural district after (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sapelcovits

          redistricting. The majority of the district is actually suburban. Over 70% of the residents either live in the Louisville suburbs, the southern Indianapolis suburbs, or the Bloomington area.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 08:58:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Advertising I bet (0+ / 0-)

      I have seen a Facebook add for her page every time I get on, and I already like it!

  •  PAC Names (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

     If I ever have my own PAC it will be called "Won't Somebody Think of the Children PAC?!"

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 04:52:22 PM PDT

  •  IN-St. Sen. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SouthernINDem

    I don't think this was ever mentioned, but Democrats have selected the candidate to replace Vi Simpson on the ballot in Senate District 40.

    Monroe County Commissioner Mark Stoops

    http://www.wibc.com/...

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jul 26, 2012 at 06:53:55 PM PDT

  •  MI Bridge (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bumiputera

    I found the bridge initiative polling to be bizarre, simply because it was originally a Democratic proposal, and polling is now showing Dems opposed to it.  I guess it's not so bizarre when you realize that it is a Republican now pushing it...but at the same time he's pusing it against his own party, so you'd think Dem voters would remember that this was Granholm's big thing she wanted to get but was opposed for years by the Republican-dominated Michigan Senate.

    The tax thing I just hope and pray falls on the side of sanity.  To be honest, I thought we'd have maybe two or three proposals on the ballot, tops, and I figured it would only be the liberal ones, but the conservatives really payed to get signatures, this year.

  •  Just had an idea, and one I don't think (0+ / 0-)

    I've heard before.

    On the off chance that Mitt Romney is elected President in November, do you know who I think the best candidate to defeat him in 2016 would be?

    Barack Obama.

    Discuss.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Gregg/Simpson for Governor! Donnelly for Senate! Mullen for Congress!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 12:11:06 AM PDT

  •  New Wisconsin c/o Razz (0+ / 0-)

    JUNE
    44   
    47

    Romney +3

    and now...

    JULY
    49   
    46

    Obama +3

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Fri Jul 27, 2012 at 10:37:55 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site