In 2009, for the first time since Parris Glendening was governor, more taxpayers moved into Maryland from other states than left. It was the continuation of a turnaround in net migration that began in 2007, the year Martin O’Malley became governor. Each year since Gov. O’Malley took his first oath of office—2007, 2008, and 2009, the most recent year for which data is available, Maryland’s net migration improved over the previous year. Gov. O’Malley’s tenure has seen a sharp reversal after his predecessor, Gov. Bob Ehrlich, racked up a net loss of 61,000 residents in his single term--the deepest net loss of Maryland taxpayers since interstate migration data has been available.
If you’ve been following Maryland politics closely for the past few weeks, this should be shocking news to you. Shocking because wannabe Republican politician and former Ehrlich administration patronage chief Larry Hogan has been all over national and local television, newspapers, the right wing blogosphere and social media claiming IRS data shows the opposite, that Marylanders are fleeing the state at an alarming rate, and blaming it on Gov. O’Malley....
“Maryland Taxes Cause Largest Exodus of Any State in Region,” Mr. Hogan proclaimed, “Maryland accounted for the largest migration exodus of any state in the region between 2007 and 2010, with a net migration resulting in nearly 31,000 residents having left the state.” Mr. Hogan’s story netted him an on-air interview with Fox Business Network, coverage on CNBC, a local story on WBAL TV, and editorials chiding Gov. O’Malley in the Republican slanted Washington Times and Washington Examiner. On social media, Mr. Hogan’s story generated hundreds of tweets, and his “Change Maryland” campaign picked up thousands of “likes” on facebook.
The trouble is Mr. Hogan cropped the data to make it look as if Maryland’s net loss of taxpayers coincided with Gov. O’Malley’s tenure. The full data set shows the taxpayer exodus tapered off and reversed under Gov. O’Malley’s watch, so that Maryland actually had a net taxpayer migration gain in 2009, the most recent year for which data is available.
And guess which governor racked up the worst record on net taxpayer migration. Hint: It was the governor Mr. Hogan worked for. The IRS data set that Mr. Hogan used to craft his tall tale shows 61,000 Maryland taxpayers moved to other states while Bob Ehrlich was governor—TWICE the number Larry Hogan attributes to O’Malley!
Mr. Hogan used IRS data presented in a nifty widget on the website of the conservative Tax Foundation, which I used to create this graph:
[Sorry, I have no clue how to embed/upload a graph created with Excel for Mac]
Larry Hogan, the son of a former congressman and Prince George’s County Executive by the same name, is a successful developer, but he would rather be a politician. He ran for Congress and lost in 1994, served as former-Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s patronage chief from 2003 to 2007, and ran for governor in 2010 until he made way for his former boss’s failed re-election bid. Now he’s trying again through a campaign he calls “Change Maryland,” which he claims is “non-partisan” even though the Maryland Republican Party website lists Change Maryland as a sponsor and Change Maryland’s Youtube account is replete with footage of Larry Hogan endorsing Republican candidates.
He hasn’t been straight with us about the partisanship of his “Change Maryland,” and now we've caught him fudging a story with cropped statistics that distort the truth. The people who should be most bothered by this are Maryland Republicans. If Mr.Hogan has the poor judgment to risk his credibility over a claim so easily refuted, how will he perform in the rough and tumble exchange of a 21st century statewide campaign?
- Steve Lebowitz, Annapolis
Mon Oct 13, 2014 at 2:30 PM PT: UPDATE: The turnaround continues.....Recently released IRS data shows more taxpayers moved to Maryland from other states than left for the second year in a row. In 2010, Maryland had a net gain of 1,949 taxpayers.
Each year of the O'Malley/Brown administration has seen an improvement in net migration. This is a sharp reversal after the previous administration, in which GOP gubernatorial candidate Larry Hogan served as a cabinet secretary, suffered the net loss of 61,000 Maryland taxpayers, the deepest exodus since interstate migration data has been available.
GOP candidate Larry Hogan campaigns all over the state complaining of a mass exodus of Maryland taxpayers, yet hard data from the IRS shows the opposite. Over the O'Malley/Brown tenure, Maryland has gained more residents from other states than it has lost for two consecutive years, reversing the loss of 61,000 residents to other states over Larry Hogan's Ehrlich administration tenure.