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Be warned and Be aware.

There is a lethal epidemic spreading around this site of a potentially fatal form of "Premature Congratulatory Disorder" (PCD).  

The basic symptom is

profuse congratulations of ourselves which brings a premature climax of the upcoming election.
We regale each other with dairies that show how stupid and evil Romney/Ryan are and how smart and good we are; how we will beat them because of all the gaffes, stupid mistakes of their staff, and how no one really likes them. We further reassure ourselves at how seniors will never let them rip SocialSecurity/Medicare from their liver-spotted hands.  And basically, we'll win because we're snarkier and funnier.  (We definitely are, but that won't win elections.)

Right now, we are in danger of not holding it long enough to go the distance and achieve a mutually satisfying outcome with the one and only partner that truly matters, the Electoral College (EC).  The night of Nov. 6, the only relationship that will have of any meaning will be the one with the EC.  All the other flings of the past year will fade into memory as we wait for an unequivocal 'yes' from her that she will be ours!

But EC is a very sensitive sort and will not be a very willing partner that night unless we court her properly in the build up to the election. (You know how that goes.)  In order to win over the Electoral College we need to first treat our "Premature Congratulatory Disorder" (PCD), and prove to her that we can do the hard work to go the distance necessary to win the numbers necessary to win her on election night.

So what is the treatment for this "Premature Congratulatory Disorder" (PCD)?  

Simply to pay attention RIGHT NOW to the the NUMBERS and the issues that directly impact these numbers which will prevent a win, rather than be distracted by all the flashy and funny distractions the media throw our way.

These are the NUMBER ISSUES WHICH WILL PREVENT A WIN unless we take them seriously and take some serious action on them.  (You can be sure that the Republican's have taken these issues seriously!)


1)  Rampant Voter Suppression

2)  Fraudulent Voting Machines

These issues have not been properly dealt with and can easily cost us the election, while we are distracted and caught in our 'Premature Congratulatory Disorder.' (PCD)

Right now WE MUST FOCUS ON:

FIRSTLY, the rampant VOTER SUPPRESSION that Alec has put in place.  There has been some reporting in the media about Florida, Ohio and now Pennsylvania's attempt to make it impossible for whole swaths of people to vote.  We cannot let that happen and we have to get this information known by lots of voters and we must DO something about it.  Numbers are what win elections and the R's know this and have found ways to cut down the D-numbers in key states.  We cannot let this stand.

Essential reading about this matter is to be found:

1)  in JekyllnHyde's diary yesterday:
Upd. - "Voter ID which is going to allow Governor Romney to win the State of Pennsylvania... Done!"+ There is some serious organizing going on in this diary which I am sure that you want to join: a rally is being planned and a DK group is being set up.

2) Meteor Blades has written several diaries about Voter Suppression. MB's diary yesterday:
This week in the War on Voting: Three court decisions on voting—good, half-good, and hmmmmph+.  Not only does MB give a very helpful explanation of what is going on, he also lists DK diaries on this issue.  

Bookmark, share, FB, etc. these diaries.  

SECONDLY, unfortunately, I have not read about any attempts to address the FRAUDULENT VOTING MACHINES/HOURS&DAYS ISSUE.  At the least, we need to keep these issues fresh in people's minds.  We need some sort of verifiable way of tracking votes. Doh! (Just having to say this makes me think I am in some sort of banana republic.)  We need to make sure that voters are not disenfranchised by cutting back on voting times or too few machines in Democratic areas or machines that are hacked or pull a 'switcheroo'. (Not that that would ever happen! Yeah, right.)

Some good viral videos on all these issues would be in order, in addition to action.

These issues are the main problems which have not been properly addressed and which can be the cause of our loss of this election through theft.  (AGAIN!).  If we can't get our folks re-elected, then game over.  Climate change, gay/women's rights, etc., etc. won't matter, because we will not have a chance to address these important issues.

JekyllnHyde gave excellent advice yesterday about voter suppression in his diary (linked above):

Write about it as often as you can on Daily Kos and other blogs.  Important: I urge all of you who are prolific writers - and whose diaries often end up on the Recommended List - to focus on this issue like a laser beam and blog regularly about the injustices involved.  This country had a turbulent Civil Right Movement many decades ago and most people thought that the Jim Crow era was behind us.  We are better than these slimy Republicans!
Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on ME.  Except this time, shame will have nothing to do with it.  We will be permanently cut out of the picture as the Norquist plutocrats establish Rove's wetdream of "a permanent Republican Majority."  And then, god/dao help us all!

(The above is extracted from comments I made in JekyllnHyde's diary yesterday.)

WE MUST CURE OUR 'PREMATURE CONGRATULATORY DISORDER' (PCD), so that we can focus on and take action on the VOTER SUPPRESSION/FRAUD ISSUES all the way to Nov. 6.  

Now, as Thom Hartmann says,

"Tag You're It!"
 Who will write the next diary on this topic tomorrow?
UPDATE ONE:

Please T&R JDWolverton's diary on Florida Voter Suppression

which has a lot of very helpful information about what is going on in Florida.  You might also note a good explanation of the REAL ID ACT in this diary:
 

In our post 9/11 world a Republican majority in 2005 passed the REAL ID Act requiring the States update their State ID and Driver's License issuance requirements so State ID"s and Driver's Licenses could be used for ID to fly or enter federal buildings. The REAL ID Act is now the basis for Voter ID laws in about 31 states. Laws that disproportionately affect voters most likely to vote for Democrats. People who are poor. People who are minorities and people the GOP wants to marginalize. Florida is one of those states that disenfranchises voters.
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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

    by SeaTurtle on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:30:48 AM PDT

  •  80ish days to go . (6+ / 0-)

    Time to start turning up the heat .

    "Drop the name-calling." Meteor Blades 2/4/11

    by indycam on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:33:54 AM PDT

  •  We do no such thing (0+ / 0-)

    Really irritating.

    Couldn't you have written a diary about vote counting without all the "we think x", "we think y", BS ?

    Republicans: Taking the country back ... to the 19th century

    by yet another liberal on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:40:41 AM PDT

    •  thank you for your opinion, yal, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Hey338Too, Greenfinches

      I have mine and have expressed it.

      I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

      by SeaTurtle on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:46:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't see that in the diary. (10+ / 0-)

      An epidemic doesn't mean everyone has a specific disease; rather there is a contagion that is spreading. I think that the diarist is rather jocularly pointing out that too many diaries acting as if we have already won the election miscast the state of play currently. At least that is how I read it and I have made similar comments over the past few weeks.

      The universe may have a meaning and a purpose, but it may just specifically not include you.

      by Anne Elk on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:52:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes we do (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sharon Wraight, pipercity1, SeaTurtle

      There was just a front page diary about how dKos aggregate polling numbers are cherry picked, with the bad outliers excluded, but not the good outliers.  That's not only shoddy journalism, it's dangerous in that it gives us a false sense of the state of the race.

      "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

      by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:59:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I take exception to that representation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pistolSO

        For one thing, the discussion yesterday was about what graphs to show where. The current state of play, as seen in this morning's APR, is one chart with everything but the trackers, and one chart with just the trackers.

        For another thing -- well, what I just said. Whether you agree with DemFromCT or not, it isn't a matter of excluding "the bad outliers... but not the good outliers."

        •  That's what he's been doing (0+ / 0-)

          The two polls he excludes (gallup, ras) are republican outliers.  There are democratic outliers, but DemFromCT has always included those.  You can drink the kool aid if you want, but that's not intellectually honest polling analysis.  

          "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

          by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 05:46:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  LOL (0+ / 0-)

            Yeah, you're probably the smartest kid in the room.

            Look, given DemFromCT's broad approach, anything he does is going to be some sort of kludge. "Kool aid" doesn't enter into it. Are some people incapable of following that? Maybe so.

            Election protection: there's an app for that!
            Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

            by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 07:47:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ok you're right (0+ / 0-)

              His analysis is fine.  Obama is crushing Romney.  We're gonna win!!!

              Happy?

              "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

              by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:08:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yup, that's exactly what I said! (0+ / 0-)

                Oh, snap. It isn't remotely what I said. How strange!

                Up here on the planet surface, DemFromCT's mashup is maybe two points sweeter than Nate Silver's -- and, yes, it's probably too sweet. Up here, DemFromCT wrote about his approach, and a civil but critical discussion ensued. Up here, he has been pretty damn clear that he thinks Obama is ahead, but not a lock. Up here, I've argued with him about parts of his analysis, and we've had, y'know, actual substantive discussions about it, as have other posters.

                And by the way, up here, "outlier" generally refers to an individual observation, not to the entire work product of some pollster or another. Of course I'm not suggesting that the definition of "outlier" dictates any substantive conclusions.

                Election protection: there's an app for that!
                Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                by HudsonValleyMark on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:12:40 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  actually Rasmussen has Obama +2 (x 2 days) (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Greenfinches

            and Gallup has Romney +2.

            Doesn't matter to me that Ras has Obama up, the methodology sucks. I don't all of a sudden include it because it's favorable.

            Gallup has issues as well. All explained here. And note the expert opinion.

            But the fact that the trackers are every day gives them outsize influence. No denying it.

            Note also I provide a link for the combined result, in addition to showing the trackers. And note also you can add the trackers back in.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 08:25:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's fine, you can do it however you like (0+ / 0-)

              And it's good that you have links to the trackers.  But if you're just averaging different polls together without regard for differences in methodology, that average is meaningless as a statistic.  And excluding certain trackers is rather arbitrary unless you have some defined set of rules for exclusion.  Gallup and Ras are not the only polls with questionable methodology and analysis.

              "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

              by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:14:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  they aren't excluded (0+ / 0-)

                they way you imply. In fact, they are there.

                "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 04:15:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  PS I am completely certain that when (0+ / 0-)

                pollster.com put these charts together, the ability to include and exclude pollsters was integral to the concept. In other words, this is how the charts were meant to be used.

                Gallup is transparent enough to understand that there is a question about the inclusion/undercount of minority voters 9references are there) and I wish everyone were.

                "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                by Greg Dworkin on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 05:17:05 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  actually, we do. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity
  •  Question: I live in MA, and I want to help with (5+ / 0-)

    PA.  Scranton is a five hour drive from me.  What would do the most good for Obama as far as Pennsylvania goes?

    And I believe Nate Silver said that with the Voter ID in place, Obama has an 82% chance of winning in PA.   So I feel confident about us winning in PA but the Voter ID has me so offended that I want to fight.

    •  the franchise is worth fighting for (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO, SeaTurtle, deep

      I don't know if Nate is right, but I think that instead of being panicked that Obama will lose PA -- or complacent that he'll win it -- it's appropriate to be focused on helping people exercise their right to vote.

      I don't know any specifics about whom to connect with in PA. Anyone?

    •  pistolSO, ck out JekyllnHyde's diary (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pistolSO, deep, highacidity, Greenfinches

      lots of organizing efforts going on there.  They are talking of forming a DK Voter Suppression group.

      One comment from the diary re. Pa:

      I live in Pennsylvania (60+ / 0-)
      Have been doing community work here for more than 20 years. Beyond doubt, this is single most outrageous, system-wide injustice that I have witnessed during this time. When the legal system is perverted to produce rampant injustice like this, it generally erodes respect for the rule of law. What follows must be civil disobedience or worse. I am working right now with AARP and NAACP on some innovative strategies to fight back and will post when they are ready to go public (shortly).

      The only thing required for evil to succeed is for good people to do nothing.

      by DavidMCastro on Sat Aug 18, 2012 at 08:36:12 AM EDT

      [ Reply to This ]

      There is more helpful information from this reader.

      Plus, others also suggested working for the

      Volunteer for the Pennsylvania Obama-Biden Campaign (35 offices in the state) and the Ohio Obama-Biden Campaign (60 offices in the state).
      Other comments include contacting the ACLU.

      I hope this is a help.

      Basically, this site needs to get organized and now!  Tx for your interest.

      I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

      by SeaTurtle on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 11:20:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks, a much needed diary! (7+ / 0-)

    I'd add to your list a few more items:

    1.  Gas prices.  
    2.  Dissapointed youth voters.
    3.  Hostile media.
    4.  The coming deluge of unlimited GOP spending.

    The GOP has barely begun their money dump.  My guess is they will set the themes in their convention, then flood the airwaves straight through to the convention.  Never before have we faced such an overpowering and unrelenting advertising offensive.

    Obama can still win this, but it will be an uphill battle.  Democrats cannot be afraid of fucking destroying republicans again and again, regardless of the media's calls for a "truce".  We must fight as if our very survival depends upon the outcome of this election.

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 10:58:04 AM PDT

    •  thank you Sub (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      arabian, Greenfinches

      all v. imp points.  Anything that will deter and or prevent voter turnout needs to be in our view and we need to take actions and counter actions.

      This needs to be our 'fight song':

      Obama can still win this, but it will be an uphill battle.  Democrats cannot be afraid of fucking destroying republicans again and again, regardless of the media's calls for a "truce".  We must fight as if our very survival depends upon the outcome of this election.
      Yeah, it galls them that we are not 'nice' anymore.  

      I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

      by SeaTurtle on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 11:27:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the machines aren't likely to change by November (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SeaTurtle, pistolSO, deep

    Some states or counties that have better audit trails than audits might be prevailed upon to do more, although that is a tough nut. It would be very good for Florida to do some sort of statewide presidential audit.

    As we get to election day, some survival tips on using the various equipment could be very helpful. For instance, many DREs are equipped with voter-verifiable paper records, but voters have to know to check the records.

    Machine allocation most often is done by county election boards. Things in Franklin County, Ohio, do seem to have gotten better since 2004 (partly because that year, they were trying to eke out one more election on obsolescent equipment) -- so, where there are problems, public pressure can help.

    Here in New York, there really isn't much discretion over hours and days because there is no early voting (and not much absentee voting). It's hard to generalize across jurisdictions. In Ohio, county boards had discretion over early voting hours until the SoS issued a directive imposing uniform statewide hours.

  •  S. Carolina voting machines deemed unreliable. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SeaTurtle

     S. Carolina in 2008 purchased electronic voting machines that FLORIDA felt were too unreliable! Jim DeMint's strongest opponent, who possibly could have won...was beaten by  a unknown black male with a questionable past. Of course DeMint won by a landslide.
      Why are these stories being ignored or given minimal press coverage? Interestingly the Democrats didn't pursue this!

    Many Republican's blind allegiance is similar to how people treat their favorite sport team. Go Cubs! "A lie makes it halfway around the world before the truth gets it shoes on." Mark Twain

    by pipercity1 on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 11:49:18 AM PDT

    •  wow! pc1, just wow! That is imp to know! (0+ / 0-)

      well a diary put up with that might get some attention.

      I am hoping that there will be a DK Voter Suppression Group coming out of JnH's diary yesterday.  

      Tx for letting us know.

      I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

      by SeaTurtle on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 11:56:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not much to pursue there, in a sense (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SeaTurtle

      Vic Rawl wasn't exactly a household name, either. The problem, of course, is that since the voting systems don't have voter-verifiable audit trails, there isn't much to go on when one is suspicious. (Rawl-Greene had little spending, little polling.) Various folks including me waded through the vote counts in search of something sketchy -- as, say, the vote counts in Florida 13 in 2006 were sketchy -- but not so much. I think Greene probably did win, but it's a heck of a way to run an election, if you ask me.

      As to how much is being done in South Carolina to replace the current voting systems, I certainly don't have the whole picture -- but I do know some great people in SC who are raising persistent and informed concerns about the machines. I think they've talked the state board into some procedural improvements, but I'm sure the state resists throwing more money at voting systems so soon after they bought these.

      If you felt like tossing some money to the SC Progressive Network, this would not be a bad thing. Also, check out the South Carolina Voting Information website. I don't necessarily agree with everything there, but there is some great work.

      Election protection: there's an app for that!
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 02:05:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I could not agree with you more!! Bravo!! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greenfinches, SeaTurtle

    People need to listen to what you are saying. We are being very short-sighted and insular. Not everyone thinks like we do. Not all of us even do, so how can we not grasp the fact that many people think in ways that are polar opposite to our thinking.
    How can people not take VERY seriously voter suppression and outright theft? Let the past be the predictor of the future.

    THANK YOU for this diary.  

    "Southern nights have you ever felt a southern night?" Allen Toussaint ~~Remember the Gulf of Mexico~~

    by rubyr on Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 03:25:44 PM PDT

    •  you are very welcome.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rubyr

      I just don't understand our side's reluctance to make this the central point until the election.  Of course, some things are being done, but obviously (given Pa's ruling,) not nearly enough.

      tx. for you comment

      I belong to the “US” of America, not the “ME,$,ME,$,ME,$” of America!

      by SeaTurtle on Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:43:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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