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PPP's first poll post Rayan selection in the Badger state has the R ticket up by 1. Statistically insignificant but per Nate's house effect of PPP by 2 points then theoretically with margin of error safe to assume that we are down by about 2.
We were up by an avg of 3.5 points in RCP http://www.realclearpolitics.com/... before this.
Nothing to sweat about at this stage as a 2-3 points home state VP pick bounce was expected, i would worry if it goes to 5-6 points post Tampa as then resources will have to go there.
On top of it the student heavy population of Madison will be returning to school this week in full strength so numbers on our side are bound to go up. Surely WI will be a little more competitive in the next few weeks until Ryan's medicare plan is fully outlined in the ads for being a trap for the seniors and we can see his numbers go down.

Originally posted to choclate on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:09 AM PDT.

Also republished by Badger State Progressive.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Arent they suppressing the vote in WI? (5+ / 0-)

    How are students affected by the new laws?

  •  AHHHH!!! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    live1, Darmok, bawbie

    Everybody panic!!!!!

  •  Resources should go there Now! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lastman, 3goldens, Vicky, rosarugosa

    Obama needs to mend some fences after the recall disaster.  He abandoned the Unions afterall.

  •  Not surprising (7+ / 0-)

    WI is going to be a hard fight. The Koch  brothers are seeing a good return on their investments. Same of a once proudly blue state running to become the ALabama of the north

  •  Just give it a little time (6+ / 0-)

    I think people are somewhat flattered that the VP is from the state, as is the head of the RNC, and the former, popular dictator of Wisconsin (Thompson) is running for Senate.  Republicans seem to be enjoying some decent press, or at least they were during my trip home the weekend that Ryan was announced.  Ultimately, I think it will fade once Ryan's record is more widely known and the celebrity effect wears off.

    The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

    by rfahey22 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:25:25 AM PDT

  •  Plus, it's a pre Akin poll (4+ / 0-)

    Let's see what happens with the update...

    Note to self, stop before I emulate the habits described in this diary.

    by Rustbelt Dem on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:28:33 AM PDT

  •  Looks Like Homeboy Didn't Move The Needle..... (6+ / 0-)

    Nationally, Paul Ryan has added 1% to the ticket.  Big deal.....he solidified the base.

    Looking forward to the VP debate.  This time Biden won't be hamstrung by not appearing to beat up on poor, pitiful Sarah Palin.

    This time.....mano y mano.  

  •  Good- no complacency Ryan's vouchers unknown (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jfromga, Supavash, 3goldens

    Basically uninformed voters. Don't know anything about Ryan and vouchers. Huge weighting of Rs in this sample.

  •  It's a Ryan bounce (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, choclate

    I imagine there is a lot of positive coverage there, but the home state guy being selected as the VP choice.

    No need to panic just yet. If it's the same in mid Sept, post-conventions, then there is an issue.

  •  Obama has a decent Virginia lead per PPP. (10+ / 0-)
  •  It's now or never for voter ID (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnnieJo, WisVoter

    if you're atty general JB Van Hollen who is pressuring the supremes hard at this very moment to enact photo ID in time for Nov 6.

    "Politics is the entertainment branch of industry". Frank Zappa

    by macleme on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:35:12 AM PDT

  •  PPP VA poll will show Obama maintaining margin... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal, jj32, Supavash, WisVoter

    so probably a native-son bounce for WI.

  •  66% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sherri in TX, Supavash

    That's the percentage of respondents who were 46 years or older.  

    Seen a little off?

  •  7 point swing from last poll (6+ / 0-)

    That's a pretty big Ryan bounce and that bounce has been buttressed by a ton of GOP ad spending in WI.  The ad spending is what worries me.  The GOP plan is clear - get WI, MI, PA, OH & VA within striking distance and then simply overwhelm Obama with spending during the last 2 months.  Right now, it seems to be working.  All of those states are tightening and Romney's cash advantage is exploding - It will be at least 4:1 in the last 2 moths.

    I'll never understand why Kos and many others on this site feel that the GOP Super-Pac spending poses little threat to Obama.  It's killing him right now.  No candidate in history has ever withstood the amount of negative advertising that is coming Obama's way right now.  

    Trust-Fund Kids of America Unite... save the Bush tax cuts!

    by JCPOK on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:41:11 AM PDT

    •  If you look at the swing state polls (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, EcosseNJ

      it's not "killing Obama" -- he's still got an extremely healthy lead in electoral votes. And I get the feeling that a lot of voters are going to get burned out by negative ads by the time November rolls around.

      "If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now" -- Rev. William Barber, NAACP

      by Cali Scribe on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:48:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That 'healthy' EV lead ... (0+ / 0-)

        Is based on a lot of state polls that have him up less than 2 percent.

        Also today Gallup STILL 47-45.  Good thing Ryan's toxic.

        •  concern troll much? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MRDFS, EcosseNJ

          Before you start panicking, wait until the rest of the polls confirms this bounce. Gallup and rasmussen have been tilted against Obama the whole cycle. Did you check out the PPP/Dkos national poll? He's up 49-45. Some bounce. Of course he was gonna get a bounce in his home state. We'vera got this. But if all you're gonna do is concern troll, which is what most of your comments have been lately, it isn't helpful at all.

      •  I think that's a reasonable point (0+ / 0-)

        I do wonder what kind of return on their investment all these commercials get.  There are so many of them here in NC that you eventually just tune them all out, and it becomes white noise.

        •  That happened here in California (0+ / 0-)

          with both the Governor's and Senate races in 2010; people tuned out the negative ads and still voted for Brown and Boxer.

          "If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now" -- Rev. William Barber, NAACP

          by Cali Scribe on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 10:51:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  i disagree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Delilah

      The only place where they've honestly moved the needle is Wisconsin and that's because of Ryan. Nothing to do with ad spending and I believe the Ryan bump will be temporary. Although, I do think the Obama camp should invest some resources there now. But Michigan, Penn and Virginia I don't see them really making any movement. Michigan especially. I don't think its within striking distance there. You have to remember Obama has his ad spending as well and its more targeted at a very flawed candidate.

      •  a swing through the state (0+ / 0-)

        is definitely warranted.  He'll need to hold major rallies in Madison and Milwaukee at least.  The media attention will be nice, but we have to fire up the base in Wisconsin to match what is very clearly Republican momentum in the state the last two years.

    •  I dont think Kos has ever said "little threat" (0+ / 0-)

      what Kos has pointed out is that Obama has shown resiliency despite that...given the spending and the state of the economy

      What I will never understand is commentors like you who seem the think that confident and optimistic Kos commentators actually pose some real threat to what happens in the race.  Is this some form of paying tribute to the "woof gods"?

  •  One point (0+ / 0-)

    is well within margin of error -- so Obama could actually be up by a couple of points for all we know.

    If this is the Ryan pick bounce, it's probably a smaller one than the Romney camp was hoping for -- disturbing but not insurmountable.

    "If we ever needed to vote we sure do need to vote now" -- Rev. William Barber, NAACP

    by Cali Scribe on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:47:12 AM PDT

  •  Wi is usually a nailbiter (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrismorgan

    Except for 2008 the democrats usually win Wi by a 1 or 2%. Hard to see them losing Wi and winning VA, Ohio and Florida though.

  •  Wisoncisn is... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    reverting to 2000/2004 form. Not a big surprise.

    "It's almost as if we're watching Mitt Romney on Safari in his own country." -- Jonathan Capeheart

    by JackND on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:48:57 AM PDT

    •  prety much close this time 4yrs ago (0+ / 0-)

      Aug/Sep

      WPRI    8/3 - 8/4    44    38    Obama +6
      Rasmussen    8/5 - 8/5    51    44    Obama +7
      Strategic Vision (R)    8/8 - 8/10    47    42    Obama +5
      Strategic Vision (R)    9/5 - 9/7    46    43    Obama +3
      CNN/Time    9/13 - 9/14    50    47    Obama +3
      Rasmussen    9/15 - 9/15    48    46    Obama +2
      Big10 Battleground    9/14 - 9/17    45    44    Obama +1

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 11:51:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  How many folks actually in Wisconsin... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    ...actually know what Paul Ryan has stood for outside his district? Sounds a lot like a home state bounce, but once folks get to know him, I'm wondering what is ultimately going to happen. Even with this poll, (maybe I'm being too optimistic) I have to still give Wisconsin to the president.

    "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." --Gandhi

    by alaprst on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:49:43 AM PDT

  •  Let's not kid ourselves (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, Bagger

    This is bad.

  •  Citing A Poll W/O Providing a (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, FG, Delilah

    LINK to the poll is kinda odd.

    This is a BIG deal as it:

    represents a 7 point shift from PPP's last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44
    Not a 1 or 2 point shift, this is a 7 point shift, and indicates that WI's rightward shift that has been in effect since the 2010 Great White Anti-Obama Backlash has not really abated.

    PPP provides some of the best crosstabs of all polls. If you have the guts, dig down deep into them, from this or any PPP poll, and see where RepubliKlans get their support from. But if you don't have the time, let me supply a synopsis of who the base of the RepubliKlan party is:

    I am not now, nor have I ever been, a member of the Republican Party.

    by OnlyWords on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 09:56:21 AM PDT

  •  Somehow (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, smartdemmg

    I am not worried about Wisconsin truly coming into play. The national electoral vote margin is narrow but the President  is a strong campaigner and Romney just gave him and all the downballot races a crystal clear choice with his kill medicare VP.

  •  I told you so (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    Folks flamed my diary explaining why picking Ryan was a good tactical move.  Moving a lean-blue state into a tossup makes the tipping point state of OH go on the blue side of the tipping point, meaning some other state(s) must be won to get to the new tipping point.  Of course, hopefully the MediScare campaign will tip all those tossups, including the senior heavy, previously barely on the red side of the tipping point FL!

  •  No Cell Phones Called In Poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash, choclate

    That is the good news.  The bad news is that the electorate looks like the one for the recall race.  Democrats did come out to vote, but more republicans came out too.  Hopefully, students in Wisconsin will come out to vote for President Obama.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 10:10:19 AM PDT

    •  That is good news (0+ / 0-)

      Also, there was a lack of national support for Tom Barrett. And didn't a fair amount of Walker voters exit poll as Obama supporters? Shrug. Whatever this poll may mean, I think we can all agree that it means WI is NOT a lock.

  •  People Don't Understand Polling (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EcosseNJ, PALiberal1

    Why do so many people who spend so much time following politics, not understand how the underlying dynamics of polling?

    This poll has Republicans sampled at +2 over Democrats. Do people realize that in 2010, a banner year for Republican enthusiasm, Democrats had a +1 advantage in Wisconsin? Not even the special recall election showed a +2 Republican voting advantage a few months back.

    Wisconsin, with it's same day voter registration, is not a swing state. I don't care how many concern trolls try to create drama here, Romney will not win the state.  

    You want evidence of that fact? How about the Obama not spending a dime in the state thus far? They spend nearly a million dollars a month on polling, so they knew the numbers better than anyone here, and it's clear their high-level internals don't show the state in any jeopardy.  Otherwise, they'd spend there.  Furthermore, neither Romney nor the RNC have hardly spent anything there. How many days of campaigning do they plan on doing there going forward?

    If Romney were dead even in the state, it'd be the height of political malpractice for both sides not to spend millions there. But they're not, because they both know Obama will win the state.

    •  PPP is using a voter enthusiasm metric (0+ / 0-)

      to arrive at its R+2 sample.  I do agree that in a Presidential election year, it is not likely to be a R+2 electorate in WI, and with Obama doing well among indies, driving up Dem turnout to Presidential levels should result in an Obama victory of somewhere around 4-6 points.  I was also a bit surprised to see Ryan at only +4 net approval with a high negative rating for a hometown boy at 45%.  His policies are starting to bite the Romney campaign per the internals of PPP's national poll.  Obama is tied among seniors in that poll, leads in 3 of the 4 regions of the country, and the word 'voucher' is toxic.  By talking about education and abortion, Obama's team is also setting Ryan up to exploit him across several key demos (women, 18-35) in addition to seniors.  I would like to see polling in WI about 1-2 weeks after our convention.  I suspect by then Ryan's negatives will catch up to the Romney ticket in WI and WI will regress to its pre-Ryan selection mean.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 01:46:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A genuine question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    churchlady

    How is it possible than in a span of 4 years Wisconsin go from having a dem governor, 2 dem senators and a 14 points Obama victory to a republican governor, a republican senator (possible 2) and a dead heat for president?

    It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

    by Friar on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 10:33:35 AM PDT

    •  Simple answer. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      churchlady, rosarugosa

      A fairly cheap media market, and unlimited outside spending from gazillionares like the Koch Brothers.

      You see, it doesn't matter if individual slanderous attack ads are called out as such - run enough of them, and they'll set the background. Muckrake, sling mud, make up al lsorts of accusations, push the "Death panels" BS hard enough, and your chosen candidates will win. Every time.

  •   Not too worried about this given other polling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah

    We see Obama up +4 in the PPP national poll and that movement seems to align even with Rash' tracker from the past week.  In VA Obama leads by a good margin according to PPP, and that is after both Ryan and Romney spent quite a bit of time in the state.

    As I recall, John Edwards narrowed the gap in NC to a 1 point race when he was picked.  It didn't last.  Given the initial unpopularity of the Ryan plan and the toxicity of "voucher", the shine will wear off Ryan pretty soon in the badger state.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 10:38:45 AM PDT

  •  Alright, alright (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, rosarugosa

    I don't see why I have to be insulted for reading gloom into an ostensibly gloomy poll, that is part of an ostensibly worrying trend. Obama's poll lead has vanished over the past weeks in WI. I don't take glee in pointing this out, and it doesn't make me a "concern-troll". If I was a "concern troll", I'd be fretting that we were going to lose FL by 15 points based on that ridiculous poll.

    You got silver linings? Good! I like em! But don't shoot me because I'm not pretending there's no cloud.

  •  Can Obama afford to lose Wisconsin? (0+ / 0-)

    That would be a pretty big hit to him.

    •  Yes, actually (0+ / 0-)

      If Obama wins Florida, for example, his path is pretty easy.  Even without Wisconsin.

      But, a single poll taken shortly after Romney announced a Wisconsin VP candidate isn't much to go on.

      •  Well the (0+ / 0-)

        Foster McCollum White/Boudoun poll for Florida yesterday showed a 15 point lead for Romney there so I don't know why anyone would be betting on Florida right now.  Yes, that poll could be an outlier, but we tend to look at composite polling results and those indicate an edge for Romney in Florida right now.  Thus, I cannot see how anyone could be nonchalant about Wisconsin going Republican.  We need those 10 EVs.

        I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

        by Delilah on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 01:12:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  TPM removed it from their site. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Delilah

          BTW, Zogby had a poll showing Obama +6 in FL so outlier cancels outlier.

          Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

          by khyber900 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 01:37:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I noticed that too (0+ / 0-)

            I also read the piece by Nate Silver on 538 in which he discussed the manifold problems with the FMW/B poll.  That said, he kept that poll in his composite, albeit with house effect adjustments and conceded that Romney was probably ahead in Florida.

            Thus, I believe my central issue remains in tact.  We cannot count on Florida and we absolutely need Wisconsin's 10 EVs.  Now, I don't actually believe that Wisconsin will land in the R-R column on election day, but we're going to have to work for it.  We simply cannot afford to be nonchalant about Wisconsin's crucial EVs.

            BTW, I consider your comments on polls to be some of the most thoughtful and lucid on this site.

            I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

            by Delilah on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 02:04:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  We will win in both states. (0+ / 0-)

              I see Romney hitting a real ceiling in FL.  If Obama erodes the advantage among seniors that McCain had by even a marginal amount, I don't see how Romney gets enough votes to win because Obama is doing well in other demos.  

              Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

              by khyber900 on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 02:06:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •   I am counting on you to be right! n.t. (0+ / 0-)

                I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

                by Delilah on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 02:16:15 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  City of Milwaukee voting history (0+ / 0-)

    In both 2004 and 2008 there were about 270,000 votes in the city of Milwaukee.  Kerry won the city by 123,000 votes while Obama won by 156,000.  In the recall in June Barrett received 78% of city vote.  I would assume that Obama will get at least that percent which will net him over 150,000 votes in the city.  The three big Republican counties will vote overwhelming for Romney but I don't see him netting more votes than Walker did.  The LaCrosse, Eau Claire, Superior, Appleton, and Green Bay areas will be crucial.  Hope that there is a lot of activity in those areas.  The city of Milwaukee and Dane County should net around 250,000 so we must do better in Northern and Western Wisconsin.  Still optimisic and remember that some polls had Obama up by only 1 over McCain in Sept. of 2008.

    •  Really? Only 250,000 from Dane County and the (0+ / 0-)

      city of Milwaukee? That sounds low for some reason. You are very right about the other areas being crucial.

      •  That's net votes (0+ / 0-)

        which are somewhat less than total votes, as City of Milwaukee is likely to be about 80% Obama and Dane County is likely to be just above 70% (remember it includes some purple areas in the suburbs and countryside).

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 22, 2012 at 11:32:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I'll believe WI's a tossup... (0+ / 0-)

    ...when Nate Silver says it's a tossup.

    Why did the Washington Post hire Bellatrix LeStrange? And why did she change her name to Jennifer Rubin?

    by NoFortunateSon on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 12:31:49 PM PDT

  •  The Citizens United Effect (0+ / 0-)

    Dem donors and Super PACs are getting SQUASHED by the GOP this year and you are starting to now see the effects of the huge $$$ advantage on the Right.

    Now that the election is getting close, people are paying more attention and the ads are coming more frequently.

    We could be in for a BIG GOP win in 2012, so be prepared.

    •  Obama needs to poll about 1.52 Million votes in (0+ / 0-)

      Wisconsin to carry the state by a point or so

      In 2008 he had about 1.67 with McCain about 1.25M
      A 1 % swing of voters from Obama to Romney as a general for 2012 vs 2008 in any mid-western state can be assumed, which roughly translates into about 30-40K votes swinging from Obama to Romney.

      This will make it to about 1.64M for (O) to 1.3M for (R)
      If per Nate the standard bounce for VP pick is about 4 points and it bottoms out to 2% or lets say for Ryan it will be 1.5% that is another net change of 50 K votes from Obama to Romeny making it about 1.59M to 1.35M.

      I would subtract about a 1% of Dems not being enthusiastic enough like 2008 on Obama / young voters not engaged as that much for the cool factor to take it down just from Obama side to 1.55M vs 1.35M for Romeny

      Walker got about 1.33M to Barret's 1.16M. Certainly comparable to what we have Romney getting. Bush in 2004 got around 1.47M which i still see as the high water mark for R's in Wisconsin. So between 1.25M for McCain to 1.47 for Bush and 1.33M for Walker I don't see any R ticket crossing 1.50M point even with Ryan included(being very generous). Kerry got 1.48M so this is probably the low end of Obama's threshold even with money disadvantage i.e 20K votes difference.

      Per calculation above it should be about 1.54-1.55M or 1,540,000 for Obama vs 1,500,000 for Romney. Too close for comfort--> yes but that still has us up by a solid 1% taking into account a pessimistic approach of turn out at our end.

      For reference I think i was very close on Georgia on my semi-statistical analysis in 2008 for Obama's total vote share of 1.8Million
      Link
      when on election day he got 1.84M but McCain drove up their numbers to 2.0M

  •  Tipped, recced and republished to (0+ / 0-)

    I started with nothing and still have most of it left. - Seasick Steve

    by ruleoflaw on Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 05:18:18 PM PDT

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