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President Barack Obama in Charlottesville, Va., Aug. 29, 2012.
Winning even more.
How much can we learn from one dinky CNN poll (PDF)? Let's count the ways!

1. Obama is winning
Pres. Barack Obama and vulture capitalist Mitt Romney were tied 48-48 prior to the conventions. Obama is now up 52-46, comfortably over 50 percent with a six-point convention bump.

Also, the poll's big gap between likely and registered voters has almost disappeared. While LVs were 48-48 two weeks ago, the RVs were 52-45 Obama. Now, with Obama leading 52-46 with LVs, his lead with RVs is just a tad higher at 53-45.

What that means is that base Democratic constituencies who previously didn't want to vote now are saying that they will.

2. Democratic voter intensity improved, opposite for GOP

Adding these columns up, 82 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic, compared to 76 percent of Republicans. And while our convention moved our Dems mostly up the scale of enthusiasm (look at those "not at all enthusiastic" numbers), the GOP apparently went backwards.

3. Obama became more popular, Romney less so

Obama received a dramatic 12-point boost, similar to what Gallup's daily tracker saw. Romney lost an equally dramatic nine points. Romney tried to remake himself at his convention, Democrats effectively shut that shit down.

4. Our party is also more popular

Dems are up eight, Republicans are down two. That won't make Congressional Republicans rest any easier at night.

5. Obama wins on the issues

On the economy, Romney's pre-convention 51-45 advantage is now an Obama 50-49 edge. If you're running your campaign on the economy and losing on this issue, you are losing.

On foreign policy, a 49-46 Obama edge is now a whopping 54-42 advantage. On Medicare, a surprisingly weak 49-46 Obama edge is now a robust 54-43 lead. Obama has similar leads on taxes, health care, energy, education and unemployment. Romney's only lead is on the budget deficit, and it's a measly 50-47 edge on a signature GOP issue.

6. Obama isn't so un-American after all

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney.

On "Shares your values," Obama is at 51, Romney is at 44. The GOP's attacks on Obama as someone who is Kenyan that he couldn't possibly share any American values is clearly one big fail. It was 47-45 Obama pre-conventions.

7. The GOP's laughable efforts to woo women failed

Pre-convention, 56 percent of likely voters said Obama was more "in touch with the problems facing women today," compared to 39 percent for Romney. They trotted out Ann Romney to say "I love women!" several times, hoping it would put a dent in those numbers. It didn't.

Obama now leds 59-34 on that question.

8. Voters know Obama will win.

59 percent of likely voters think Obama will win, 37 percent of dead-enders pretend Romney will. The more that Romney voters think Obama will win, the less they'll do to help out his campaign. Our task now isn't to win the election, it's to crush the GOP, and we do so by smashing their morale to pieces.

9. Our convention was (a lot) better

Forty-six percent of registered voters said they were more likely to vote Democratic after the DNC, 36 percent said less likely.

Thirty-six percent said they were more likely to vote Republican after the Republican convention, 46 percent said less likely.

No one could've predicted that having Clint Eastwood yell at an empty chair would spell D-I-S-A-S-T-E-R.

Actually, everyone predicted that.

2:03 PM PT: Greg Sargent reminds me on Twitter—the poll was conducted almost entirely after Friday's job report. So much for the jobs numbers "stepping on Obama's bounce" and all that other media nonsense.


Originally posted to kos on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 01:58 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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