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7:32 AM PT: CT-Sen: Holy shit. After enduring a relentless barrage of negative stories about her million-dollare bankruptcy in 1976 (ignited by a story in The Day which uncovered previously-unseen documents from the filing), Republican Linda McMahon said late on Thursday night that she'll pay back the "individuals" she stiffed almost four decades ago! Here are my thoughts:

  1. This whole issue must have polled disastrously for her.
  2. McMahon and her husband are ultra-wealthy and have been zillionaires for years. Why didn't they make these people whole again before now?
  3. McMahon previously said she didn't have any further information about which creditors were still owed what when her debts were discharged in bankruptcy. (The documents "simply do not exist," said her campaign manager.) The new documentation doesn't show that either. So how does she magically know whom to repay now?
  4. No. 2 & 3 make me think that even this dramatic gesture won't make this problem go away for her. This reminds me of attorney Bob Loblaw's ad on Arrested Development: "Why should you go to jail for a crime somebody else noticed?" Acting to right a wrong only after you've been caught stinks.

The Murphy campaign also has its own list of questions:

• Linda McMahon says that she will locate and reach out to all individuals that she stiffed. What about the small businesses?

• Does she plan to pay back the taxpayers at local municipalities like West Hartford and New Britain?

• Has she actually paid back the IRS and can she prove that?

• When does she plan to pay these individuals back? Will she let Connecticut voters know when she does so they know this isn't one more Linda McMahon political campaign lie?

• If she ends up paying anyone back, is she going to force them to sign non-disclosure forms or give up any other rights in return for being paid back almost four decades late?

• Why did she suddenly decide to pay these people back now? She has long-claimed to not have records of who she owed, but is it really possible that Linda McMahon couldn't remember the names of just a few individuals?

• Finally, shouldn't she have paid back the people she owed money to before going out and purchasing a power boat she named the "Sexy Bitch," a Vegas condo, a Boca condo, two Bentleys and an Aston Martin, three motorcycles, a $7 million Greenwich mansion, and much, much more with her hundreds of millions of dollars?"

7:34 AM PT: Questions which, as they say, all demand answers.

7:45 AM PT: Oh, and here's one more question: Is McMahon going to pay her creditors back with interest? If so, at what rate? If McMahon were charged a 1.5% monthly rate (simple, not compound), she'd owe something like $7.5 million. And also recall that inflation alone has made her $1 milion in 1976 debts worth more like $4 million in today's dollars.

8:02 AM PT: NC-08: Following up on that story about the DCCC cancelling a week's worth of ads on behalf of Dem Rep. Larry Kissell, here's this bit of spin out of the D-Trip's press shop. The tea leaves aren't the clearest, but I'm voting on "triaged":

"Larry Kissell is battle-tested and has won tough fights by gaining the support of Independents and Republicans," said DCCC spokesperson Jesse Ferguson. "Kissell can win against Washington insider Richard Hudson who is running a lackluster campaign and supports an agenda to end Medicare."

9:05 AM PT (David Jarman): WI-Sen (pdf): I don't think we need more evidence right now that Dem Tammy Baldwin has moved into the lead in Wisconsin's open seat Senate race in the last few weeks, or, at a bare minimum, caught up. Nevertheless, we've got some more evidence! It's from Marist on behalf of NBC; they find Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson 48-46 among LVs (and 49-44 among RVs); they also have Barack Obama up 50-45 (51-43 w/ RVs), so the poll's a little easier to swallow than Marquette's huge leads. (Marist also polled Colorado and Iowa in this week's wave, but there aren't downballot races there this year.)

And here's a good sign that Thompson is off his game: he's way off message, mostly exchanging blows with the Romney camp. Thompson publicly blamed Romney's lackluster campaign on Thursday for his own polling decline, and now the Romney camp is actually punching back, at least via surrogate/fixer John Sununu, who came up with an amusing comparison: Thompson "sounds like Barack Obama trying to blame it on somebody else."

9:16 AM PT (David Jarman): NV-04: The race in the newly-created 4th, between Democratic state Sen. Steven Horsford and Republican person-with-famous-last-name Danny Tarkanian, has been in the Dem column in most prognosticators' columns (probably thanks to its 56% Obama lean and Tarkanian's financial woes and gaffe propensities). We've always been a little more skeptical, though, as Horsford has never bothered to respond to several internal polls that Tarkanian has released with him in the lead.

And now we've gotten our first public poll of the race, for SurveyUSA on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal; it too gives Tark Jr. the lead, though not a convincing one at 45-42. (The sample also gives Obama a 52-43 lead here.) You can wear yourself to a frazzle trying to pick apart a SurveyUSA House poll, especially by delving into the crosstabs... so I'll just let atdnext do the honors, who already did the dissection over at his own blog; perhaps most problematic, they have Tarkanian winning by 8 among Latinos (as well as winning among "urban" voters).

9:24 AM PT (David Jarman): MT-Gov: Here's one more poll with Democratic AG leading the open seat gubernatorial race in Montana, although by a paper-thin margin. Mason-Dixon finds Bullock leading GOP ex-Rep. Rick Hill 44-43 (with 2 for the Libertarian candidate, who could actually wind up being the difference-maker here).

They also poll the AG race (left open by Bullock's move up); earlier this week we mentioned a huge ad buy here by the Republicans to prop up their nominee here, Tim Fox. (My theory behind that is that they feel they need to build up a bench here; if Denny Rehberg loses the Senate race, they've got basically nothing on the bench, even as the state stays red at the Presidential level.) At any rate, the spending (plus residual name rec; Fox lost to Bullock in 2008) seems to be giving Fox the edge; he leads Dem Pam Bucy 46-37. There's not mention of the Senate race here; presumably that'll be a separate release later.

9:40 AM PT (David Jarman): SD-AL: The at-large House seat in South Dakota has always been hanging around on the cusp of competitive, and the latest poll of the race, well, has it looking like it's still on the cusp of competitive. GOP frosh Kristi Noem leads Dem Matt Varilek 51-42 in the latest poll from Nielson Brothers. Their previous poll, back in May, showed a closer race at 47-46, but that had a whiff of outlier about it, and the subsequent lack of involvement by the national parties seemed to confirm that. (Up ticket, Mitt Romney leads 54-39.)

9:48 AM PT: Race Ratings:

We're making six ratings changes this week, for one Senate race and five House races. All but one favor the Democrats.

IN-Sen (Lean R to Tossup): It's game on for real now in Indiana. While polls out of the Hoosier state are infrequent (robopolling isn't permitted), a long stretch of undisputed Democratic internals keeps showing a very close race. Most recent was a new survey on behalf of Rep. Joe Donnelly, which actually showed him ahead of Republican Richard Mourdock 45-42. More importantly, both major party committees—the DSCC and the NRSC—are now advertising here. National Dems aren't going to waste money on Donnelly if he doesn't have a shot, and Mourdock's run a very poor campaign. Win or lose, the ghost of Richard Lugar is going to haunt Indiana Republicans for a long time.

CA-10 (Lean R to Tossup): Democrat Jose Hernandez has an extraordinary profile, rising from poverty to become an astronaut, and he's put up respectable fundraising numbers against GOP freshman Jeff Denham. The DCCC is evidently a believer, recently coming into the race with almost $400K in ad buys, following on the heels of an unanswered internal poll which put Hernandez up 46-44.  That led the conservative American Action Network to respond with almost half a mil for the conservative Denham, who himself went on the air weeks before his challenger. There's also an important background factor at work: Denham only took 49% in June's all-party top-two primary. Historical evidence suggests that California Republicans fare worse in November than they do when the state's conducted such primaries, and with President Obama set to do very well once again in the Golden State, Denham's not in a happy place.

CA-36 (Likely R to Lean R): Two polls, both from PPP on behalf of Democracy for America, have shown physician Raul Ruiz just a hair's breadth behind GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack. That's despite heavy spending by the incumbent, which has left Ruiz very competitive in the cash-on-hand department. The biggest development of all came just the other day, though: The DCCC made a low-six figure TV purchase and started running ads attacking Bono Mack. This is still an uphill fight for Ruiz (Bono Mack took 58% in the June primary), but the climb suddenly got noticeably less steep.

IL-13 (Lean R to Tossup): After waging something of a scrappy outsider's primary campaign, physician David Gill's impressed us with his pivot toward running the kind of race he needs to in this middle-of-the-road district. He also benefitted from the fact that GOP Rep. Tim Johnson unexpectedly bailed on the race late in the game, leaving Republicans with congressional staffer Rodney Davis instead. It's also worth noting that this race was one of the D-Trip's first targets this fall—in fact, they came in before Labor Day—something we wouldn't have anticipated. We always like being pleasantly surprised, and this race has now done that to us on a few occasions.

MI-01 (Lean R to Tossup): Democrat Gary McDowell seemed like the perfect fit to replace Rep. Bart Stupak when he announced his retirement last cycle. Unfortunately, he had to run in 2010—right candidate, wrong time. Now, he's getting a do-over against the guy who beat him, Dan Benishek, and he looks to be in strong shape. Polling continues to show Benishek mired in the low 40s, and outside groups are already ripping him to shreds, including the League of Conservation Voters, SEIU, and the DCCC. (Republican spending has not kept pace.) We'd been somewhat uncertain about how receptive voters in this rural, red-tilting district would be to returning to Democratic representation in Congress, but this is looking like one of Team Blue's top pickup opportunities.

NC-08 (Tossup to Lean R): Sorry, Larry. Dem Rep. Larry Kissell, a weak campaigner with questionable political instincts and even weaker fundraising, saw his district wrenched into a much more conservative configuration thanks to redistricting. Even his own recent polling wasn't very optimistic, showing his race against Richard Hudson getting tighter. But the rug was just pulled by the D-Trip, which started cancelling ad time that had been reserved on his behalf. Yes, it was only one week, but we're viewing that as a very negative sign. If you're going to triage anyone, it makes sense to let Kissell go, since he's incapable of fending for himself and would need to be propped up every two years, even if he did somehow manage to win this fall. That doesn't seem like a problem the DCCC's going to have to deal with, though.

9:51 AM PT (David Jarman): NY-19 (pdf): After almost a week of nonstop good news on the House polling front, I suppose the ride had to end at some point. It stopped in New York's 19th district, according to Siena: they have GOP freshman Chris Gibson leading Dem Julian Schreibman by a wide margin, 52-36. Now a big part of the problem is that no one knows who Schreibman is (he has 18/18 favorables, compared with 43/28 for Gibson), but even if he fixes that, Gibson's already past the 50% mark.

They find Barack Obama leading 49-45 in the district (which went 53-45 in 2008). This district was never a must-win for the Dems (we have it slotted in as Lean R), but to actually take back the majority, the Dems will need to not only win most of the Tossups but also make a big dent in some of the suburban Obama districts held by GOP moderates that are currently in the Lean R column, like this one.

11:16 AM PT: MA Redistricting: In reviewing our redistricting materials, we discovered a slight error in our Massachusetts data. Apparently, the state legislature rearranged stuff right before passing the bill, without updating the "proposed" maps posted online! The new map affected five towns: East Brookfield, Easton, Palmer, Raynham, and Walpole (and four congressional districts, the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 8th). East Brookfield, which had been split between the 1st and 2nd, was put entirely in the 1st in exchange for a section of Palmer. Walpole was moved from the 4th to the 8th and Easton from the 8th to the 4th; the boundary in the previously-split town of Raynham was also adjusted. Despite all this, presidential results by CD did not change substantially, with the one noticeable change being that the 4th went up 0.1% in Obama performance (and the 8th decreasing accordingly).

As always, our full redistribution analysis is available here, and our county components table here. You can also download our full national CD map in either shapefile or KML (Google Earth) form.

11:18 AM PT: IL-12: I kinda like these zingers Democrat Bill Enyart landed on his Republican opponent, Jason Plummer, in a debate on Thursday night:

Enyart then accused his rival of wishing to "run against Barack Obama. He doesn't want to run against Bill Enyart. I'm not sure why. He wants to run against Nancy Pelosi. If he wants to run against Nancy Pelosi, he needs to rent a villa in San Francisco...." [...]

"I don't care how much Mr. Plummer made," Enyart said. "I care how much he paid. If Mr. Plummer wants to go to Congress and if he wants to write tax policy, don't you think it's fair that he disclose what his tax returns are?"

Not bad for a first-time candidate.

11:32 AM PT: MN-Gov, -Sen: And yep, as we suspected when he quit the Romney campaign to take a lobbying job, Republican ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty is formally ruling out a run for governor or senator in 2014. Have fun with T-Paw, bank lobbyist dweebs.

11:44 AM PT: CA-30: KABC-7 in Los Angeles apparently commissioned a new poll of the CA-30 race from SurveyUSA, but for some reason, the station hasn't put any details up on its website—all we have is a screen capture. The numbers nevertheless make sense: Dem Rep. Brad Sherman leads fellow Dem Rep. Howard Berman 45-32 (with the rest undecided), very close to to Sherman's 42-32 edge in June's top-two primary. We'll post more info as we get it.

12:03 PM PT: FL-26: After two Democratic polls showed him getting pounded, Republican Rep. David Rivera finally found someone to gin up some positive poll numbers for him: local pollster Dario Moreno, who somehow has Rivera up 44-38 over Democrat Joe Garcia. And if you believe that, then I'm sure you'll believe that Mitt Romney is also beating Barack Obama 50-42 in this South Florida district that split its vote evenly four years ago. (Both PPP and Benenson Strategy Group see the president leading.) Most baffling, though, is this writeup in The Hill, proclaiming that "the incumbent is largely believed to be safe, as he's running in a red-leaning district that favors Mitt Romney." Rivera safe?

12:33 PM PT: CA-36: Huh, interesting. A years-old email from GOP Rep. Mary Bono Mack that had, in fact, been publicly known is only now coming to light—and it's not making her look very good. Here's the background:

Rep. Mary Bono Mack joked about a description of squalor in the east valley as a "Third World toilet," according to a 2006 email she sent to a talk radio host after he had interviewed a Coachella councilman.

The email to then-talk radio host Gary Stone came to light Thursday as Democratic campaign challenger Raul Ruiz accused Bono Mack of having "a pattern of disdain for her constituents."

"I heard some of your remarks with the councliman (sic) from Coachella. You were great!!!!!!" Bono Mack wrote in the email later published on the left-leaning political blogsite Daily Kos.

"Unbelievably great!!! Third World Toilet? That was too funny."

I found the post in question, written by Daily Kos user John Chapman back in 2006. The email was actually first published in a Spanish-language newspaper called El Informador Del Valle; it doesn't have much of a web presence, but Chapman managed to obtain a scan of the article which included Bono Mack's email. It's not clear why the email, which has been lying in plain sight for years, is only now getting some traction, but I'd guess that Ruiz's oppo team did some good digging and shot this around to local press.

I should also point out that there are some nasty racial undertones here, given that Coachella is almost entirely (96%) Hispanic. That's why Bono Mack is denying that her remarks were about Coachella, which seems like an extraordinary stretch, particularly since her campaign claims she was talking about some unspecified sort of "corruption" in a trailer park. Stone, the radio host, is also back-pedaling, and he's blaming the leak of the email on an unnamed colleague who supported Bono Mack's 2006 challenger, David Roth. (For what it's worth, Stone was fired from the radio station in 2008 after his co-host called Ginny Foat, a Democrat who was then Mayor Pro Tem of Palm Springs, a "murderer.")

12:58 PM PT: IN-02: Probably the most famous feature film set in Indiana's 2nd Congressional District (aside from "Knute Rockne, All American") is the 1993 football tearjerker "Rudy," set at Notre Dame. Well, Democrat Brendan Mullen didn't manage to land Daniel "Rudy" Ruettiger, but he scored the next best thing: Actor Sean Astin, who played Rudy in the movie, is headlining a fundraising event for him. (You younger nerds probably know Astin best from his role in those movies with the little dudes and the weird wedding ring and Magneto when he had long white hair.)

1:08 PM PT: Maine: PPP has some new numbers on the pro-gay marriage ballot measure that's going before voters in Maine this November. They find 52% of voters in favor and 44% opposed, but Tom Jensen cautions that undecideds on this topic typically wind up voting "no," so this may be very close indeed. (A long time ago, back in March, it was 54-41 in favor, but that was under a registered voter model; this new poll is of likely voters.) Meanwhile, Democrats lead on the generic legislative ballot by a healthy 48-37. And in 2014 numbers, GOP Gov. Paul LePage trails Generic D 48-40, but Republican Sen. Susan Collins wallops Generic D 59-25.

1:33 PM PT: NH-Gov: Yipes: Democrat Maggie Hassan is down to just $16,000 cash-on-hand for the general election, after spending almost $1 million to win her primary. That compares with $258K for Republican Ovide Lamontagne. Presumably, the DGA and EMILY's List will bail out Hassan, though.

1:40 PM PT: NY-18: PPP's been very busy on the House race front, doing work for all sorts of clients. Their latest private internal to see the light of day was conducted for the AFL-CIO and has the race between GOP freshman Nan Hayworth and Democrat Sean Maloney all tied up at 43 apiece. These numbers compare with a 46-33 spread found by Siena earlier in the week, but that poll found Working Families Party placeholder Larry Weissmann scoring 10% of the vote. While there's been some question about whether the WFP still has enough time to pull a switcheroo, the AFL's press release says that they "assume[] that the election is a two candidate race." Meanwhile, Obama leads Romney 50-42 in the new PPP survey, which suggests the sample might be a tad optimistic (the POTUS won by five in 2008), but given Romney's general nosedive in recent weeks, these numbers are not out of the question. (Siena had Obama up four.)

1:43 PM PT (David Jarman): Two more pieces of evidence in Wisconsin have also arrived. One is from PPP, who previously telegraphed a Tammy Baldwin edge; they find she's leading Tommy Thompson 49-45. (That's much improved from their last sua sponte poll a month ago where Thompson led 49-44, but not much different from their narrative-resetting internal poll for DFA from last Monday, where she led 48-45.)

PPP also finds GOP Gov. Scott Walker -- last seen joining Thompson in a little Romney-punching of his own -- faring much better than the rest of the Republicans; his approvals are 50/46 and he leads Generic D 50-44 in a hypothetical 2014 matchup. Retiring Dem Senator Herb Kohl is the state's most popular politican, though, at 47/35.

Finally, Rasmussen takes a look at the race and even they have to join the consensus, finding Baldwin ahead of Thompson, 49-46. (That's improved from a 54-43 Thompson lead one month ago.)

2:03 PM PT: We finally have the full crosstabs for that SUSA poll of CA-30. Perhaps saddest for Berman is that he's even trailing by 11 points among Republicans, despite his desperate-seeming efforts to make inroads among that group. The poll also appears to pass the presidential topline sanity check, more or less, with Obama beating Romney 60-33 (he won 66-31 in 2008).

2:34 PM PT: Independent Expenditures: Pro-Dem:

AFSCME: PA-12: $323K

End The Gridlock: NE-Sen: $227K

House Majority PAC: IA-04: $40K; IL-17: $105K; MN-08: $112K; NC-07: $23K; NH-02: $212K; NY-18: $145K; OH-06: $179K; OH-16: $378K; WA-01: $181K; WI-07: $46K

DCCC: FL-18: $284K

Majority PAC: VA-Sen: $1m

Patriot Majority: ND-Sen: $462K

Pro-GOP:

American Future Fund: AZ-09: $308K (TV); $112K (radio); $60K ("social media")

Center for Individual Freedom: IA-03: $272K; KY-06: $104K; NV-04: $464K; NY-21: $360K; NY-24: $346K; UT-04: $245K

Chamber of Commerce: HI-Sen: $311K; NM-Sen: $455K; VA-Sen: $1.4m; WI-Sen: $750K

NRSC: IN-Sen: $623K

2:47 PM PT: Party Committees: Good fundraising numbers for Democrats in August. On the House front, the DCCC outraised the NRCC raised $11.6 million to $6.8 mil, though the GOP holds a $50 mil to $40 mil cash edge. Meanwhile, on the Senate side, the DSCC raised $7.7 mil versus $6 mil for the NRSC and has $31 mil in the bank compared to $29 mil for Republicans.

3:21 PM PT: Ads:

CT-Sen: Good visuals in this Majority PAC spot attacking Republican Linda McMahon: A card dealer lays out playing cards featuring McMahon's face and pictures of people she wants to screw over in various ways, while occasionally pulling a card from up his sleeve as the announcer accuses her of "sleight of hand" and "fix[ing] the game."

IN-Sen: Republican Richard Mourdock goes "standard GOP playbook" and calls on his dad to portray him as a defender of Medicare and Social security (while telling the standard Obamacare lie about Joe Donnelly). And look out! Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS is reportedly going big with a $1 million ad buy to bail out Mourdock.

ME-Sen: The NRSC attacks indie Angus King for allegedly getting a "sweetheart deal" for his windmills, which now dot some Maine hilltops—something a few regular people-types decry.

MT-Sen: Majority PAC portrays GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg as a tool of lobbyists eager to do their bidding.

ND-Sen: Heidi Heitkamp features a trucker who wants his sons to be able to attend college (unlike himself), hitting GOP Rep. Rick Berg for voting "to cut college aid to pay for a tax break for millionaires like himself." The NRSC attacks Heitkamp for supporting TARP and Obamacare.

NM-Sen: Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich goes after the "special interests" who are "here to distort" his record "because they know they can count on Heather Wilson to support their agenda."

3:41 PM PT: Ads:

NC-Gov: One of Republican Pat McCrory's high school teachers says: "Sometimes a student is just special." Referring to McCrory. Seriously. His other new ad is even freakier. A sheriff with a really strong accent and no sense of humor claims to be a lifelong Democrat and says: "Our only hope is McCrory. He'll do great with our state. Or I'll hunt him down." Consider me thoroughly creeped out.

WA-Gov: Republican Rob McKenna goes all positive with this introductory-type ad about his family, which seems a little late in the game. (It's almost October.) He also emphasizes education in a spot that looks very similar to others he's run.

WV-Gov: The RGA once again tries to paint Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin as bad for the coal industry and claims he wrongly took credit for a lawsuit against the EPA that former Gov. (and now Sen.) Joe Manchin initiated.

4:00 PM PT: Ads:

CA-10: House Majority PAC attacks GOP Rep. Jeff Denham for supporting the Ryan plan and praises Jose Hernandez for opposing it.

CO-07: Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter touts his constituent work, with footage of him walking door-to-door and hosting meetings. In a second spot, he touts his efforts to pass "Make It In America" laws and attacks Joe Coors for outsourcing jobs.

FL-22: Democrat Lois Frankel goes negative on Adam Hasner, attacking him for supporting the Ryan plan and for voting for pay increases while in the legislature. Eric Cantor's YG Action Fund tries to paint Frankel as someone who abusively used perks while serving as mayor of West Palm Beach.

FL-26: A local fisherman (who also happens to be mayor of the small town of Marathon) praises Democrat Joe Garcia for his focus on protecting the Florida Keys.

4:19 PM PT:MT-Gov: AFSCME accuses Republican Rick Hill of supporting tax hikes on regular Montanans but "tax breaks for corporations.

4:34 PM PT:IA-02: Republican Ben Lange attacks Dem Rep. Bruce Braley over the usual Obamacare/Medicare lies.

IA-03: GOP Rep. Tom Latham attacks Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell for voting for TARP and Obamacare, and "against bills to help Iowa's farmers and economy."

NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre holds up a Chuck Taylor All-Star and laments the fact that the shoes are no longer produced in North Carolina but instead in Asia. Then he attacks David Rouzer for supporting "tax breaks for companies that send jobs like these overseas," and adds that he opposes NAFTA (not a topic that frequently comes up in ads).

NV-03: House Majority PAC attacks GOP Rep. Joe Heck for voting to defund Planned Parenthood and for other "War on Women"-type votes, while praising John Oceguera. (Size of the buy: $240K.) Heck pushes back against similar attacks, then accuses Oceguera of "double-dipping" by holding two government jobs at the same time.

4:44 PM PT:NY-21: Republican Matt Doheny accuses Dem Rep. Bill Owens of supporting tax increases.

OH-16: John Boehner's Congressional Leadership Fund tries to portray Dem Rep. Betty Sutton as joined at the hip to Nancy Pelosi.

PA-08: Funny visuals in this ad from Democrat Kathy Boockvar: The announcer says that GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick "just doesn't fit us anymore" as a variety of people try on comically wrong-sized t-shirts—and even a onesie—emblazoned with Fitzpatrick's face.

PA-12: Dem Rep. Mark Critz speaks out against "bad trade deals" and dings Keith Rothfus for supporting legislation that would ship jobs overseas. The YG Network attacks Critz over a mish-mash of stuff, and I think the announcer actually scoffs "jeez!" (or close to it) at about 20 seconds in.

4:47 PM PT: TX-23: John Boehner's PAC attacks Democrat Pete Gallego over the usual Medicare lies and also accuses him of being a tax hiker.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I assume this is a list (4+ / 0-)

    Of good news for Mitt Romney this week?

  •  CT-Sen (11+ / 0-)

    Wow, I can't help but think this will really hurt McMahon.  People are already annoyed at her over the top constant advertising - but to think she has these millions to spend on ads but never thought to pay back "the little guys" she screwed in the past?

    Makes Murphy's "he was late on his rent payment!" attack just look like peanuts...

  •  Wow - epic blunder by Linda McMahon! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, KingofSpades, abgin, askew, MichaelNY

    Could finish any chances she had.  She was in a tough spot, but it was nothing new from 2010 so might have been seen as old news.  What she did now was make it much, much worse.  She makes it a top story now and the questions rightly pushed by Murphy become why now decades later - years and years after she made her first $500M?  Which ever campaign big wig who thought this was a good idea should be fired on the spot and never work in a campaign ever again.  

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 07:44:18 AM PDT

  •  MN-6 (11+ / 0-)

    The Jim Graves campaign has been impressing me so far. Given that the IP is not contesting this race, Bachmann can't rely on yet another plurality victory. Bachmann is still quite favored, but after seeing Mr. Graves' camaign the last week or two, I am changing this to Likely R from Safe R.

    But FPers, I would suggest not delving into him or his campaign too much, because you won't like him. Just be happy that he has a shot to unseat Bachmann.

    •  I'd even take another Dan Boren (10+ / 0-)

      in a seat as red as the new MN-06.

      If by some near-miracle Bachmann is defeated, I'm certain there's another Tea Party type who will step up and show the folly of their ways.

    •  he supports gay marriage (7+ / 0-)

      in a district that, AFAIK, will probably vote for the marriage ban in November. That's good for some courage points.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:01:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wise Call..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      As conservative as the district is, less than half of the voters here would be in Michele Bachmann's realm.  My extremely Republican high school buddy lives in the district and won't vote for her.  And this time he won't have an IP candidate to waste a vote on.  The climb got much harder when redistricting traded in Stillwater for western Carver County, but I could still see about a 5-10% chance of an upset here if Graves continues to play his cards right.

      •  TwinCities Pioneer Press (5+ / 0-)

        wrote up this race here:

        http://www.twincities.com/...

        It made really bullish on Graves chances.

        Jennifer Booth of Oak Grove has never gotten involved in a political campaign until now.

        U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann's rhetoric prompted the 41-year-old to research her opponent this year. She liked what she heard and read about hotelier Jim Graves. Booth went to get a yard sign in August and soon after was volunteering for Graves' campaign, passing out literature at the Minnesota State Fair.

        And the sort of rhetoric Graves is using is really popular, even in solidly Republican-leaning districts.
        As he campaigns, Graves is trying to bill himself as a centrist in an otherwise polarized political world. He frequently says that he believes free markets work best. Graves also says that businesses face too many costly regulations and that while Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform offers good consumer protections, it went a bit too far and is making it harder for small community banks to offer credit.

        He supports abortion rights and gay marriage, veering from the district's social-conservative tendencies.

        "I don't think the government needs to be involved in personal lives," Graves said. "I happen to be Catholic. That doesn't mean I should impose that people shouldn't eat meat on Fridays."

        Not to mention the internal poll from his campaign had him only down 2 despite a 61 point name recognition gap. If he throws in some of enormous wealth, he has a real chance of winning.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:37:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Michele Bachmann (4+ / 0-)

          You could list an imaginary person in a hypothetical race against Bachmann and s/he would poll within 5 points of Bachmann, simply because it is the "non-Bachmann". The trick is closing that last little gap in such a red district that even Amy Klobuchar very well may lose, and Obama is certain to lose by double digits.

          •  I Can't See Klobuchar Losing Here..... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            ....when even the district's own Congressman couldn't beat her here in 2006.  Bills might win Sherburne and Wright Counties though.  They're gonna be Minnesota's strongest Republican counties in a few years....stronger than Carver.

            •  I dunno. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              I feel that Rock County is going to be the most iron-ribbed Republican stronghold soon. It has no association with Minnesota at all, and is much more akin to South Dakota, including its media market.

              Clearwater County was Klobuchar's worst county in 06, IIRC, but that county is strange, as it will vote for the right Democrats, apparently Klobuchar wasn't the "right" Demorat then.

              In terms of net votes, I think Wright County is where our prospects look bleakest in terms of net votes. The towns on the I-94 corridor have not shrunk like other exurban communities, and they are very conservative areas. Scott County I don't feel too bad about due to the minority growth in Shakopee. Carver County is going to remain a Republican stronghold, but it is one of the counties that is shrinking, as opposed to the stagnant Wright County.

              •  Agreed On Rock...And Also Pipestone County..... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                OGGoldy, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                If only two Minnesota counties vote Kurt Bills this year, those two will be Pipestone and Rock.  They're in the Sioux Falls media market, where Minnesota never gets discussed, and I bet Klobuchar would have about 25% name recognition there.  Plus they both have a lot of evangelicals who are inelastically Republican.  But in terms of margins, they rarely go 2-1 GOP as I suspect Sherburne and Wright will in the years ahead as the demographic shift continues post-housing bust.

                As for Clearwater County, the early returns showing Kennedy getting a huge win there was based on bad information.  Klobuchar actually won there by seven points.  http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/...=

                •  Okay, I officially feel like an idiot (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  ArkDem14, jncca, MichaelNY

                  I worked on that campaign and I didn't know that.

                  /OGGoldy Fail.

                  •  You Worked On Klobuchar's Campaign? (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                    You had to have been pinching yourself by late summer wondering if it was a dream or if you were really kicking Kennedy's ass as severely as you did.

                    •  It was my first ever campaign (6+ / 0-)

                      I had worked as an intern in Rybak's office the year before, and at the time I was treasurer of the U-DFL. I wasn't really sure all what was going on. Things were so incredibly busy that I nearly failed all of my classes that semester because it was either study or sleep. I figured the race was going to be a blowout, but I had tried to keep my hopes in check, because I was in Minneapolis, and my home was in the Iron Range, and I know those are the most DFL-friendly areas in the state. I honestly thought Hatch was more likely to win than Klobuchar, because frankly at the time Kennedy was a remarkable get by the NRSC, he just turned out to be a feckless campaigner. Hatch would have won, except he called a reporter a whore and hung up on her 5 days before the election. Sigh...

                      But yea, that was my start in politics. Shortly after election day an old family friend by the name of Tony Sertich called me asking if I would be willing to go work in St. Paul for one of his newly-elected allies, because the gains in the legislature were so large that they were short of experienced staffers. The rest, as they say, is history.

        •  I'm Not Sure About The Business Democrat Tact.... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          ....my understanding about MN-06 is that it's more socially conservative and economically populist.  I don't think they will be voting Romney this year based on their opposition to Dodd-Frank.  But then again, he needs a coalition, and picking off part of Bachmann's base is needed to compile that coalition.  If that means pro-business, socially moderate Republicans to pick off on top of every Democrat and Independent in the district, so be it.

          •  They are trying to get El Tinklenberg to campaign (5+ / 0-)

            Tinklenberg was the guy that nearly beat Bachmann in 2008. He also is one of the de facto leaders of the Independence Party that worked in the Ventura administration. He still keeps quite a presence in Blaine, where he used to serve as mayor, and is the second largest city in the district (behind St. Cloud).

          •  MN6 (4+ / 0-)

            That doesn't sound right. MN6 is an upscale district, nearly as rich as MN2 and MN3. Rich suburban districts are almost always economically conservative, and when they are more liberal it tends to be of the wine-track strain (e.g. the SF bay area). The sense I have of MN6 is that it's very conservative on economic issues and somewhat conservative on social issues. Bachmann underperforms the GOP baseline there because of her cultural extremism, not her economic extremism.  

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:00:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That depends on where you are talking about (5+ / 0-)

              MN-6 is a suburban/exurban district, and doesn't have the money than MN-3 has. MN-3 has Lake Minnetonka, and with it, about 90% of the wealthiest properties and residents in the state of Minnesota.

              What you're saying is true with parts of MN-6. Washington County, and Central Anoka Counties are like that. But you get in to VERY conservative areas quickly when you get into northern Anoka County, Wright, and Sherburne Counties. These are quintessential tea-flavored exurban housing developments. They are immensely socially conservative there. The key is to pick off enough of the more reserved conservatives in the suburbs that are turned off by Bachmann's antics, play into the last vestages of prairie populism in rural Stearns County, increase the net vote margin in swingy St. Cloud, and crush Bachmann in the remaining portion of Washington County. To be honest, if you can do ALL of that, it will be good for about 50.1%. This is a tough, tough district no matter how to slice it.

              •  On Further Speculation..... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                ....I think you're probably right that that is Graves' best tact as he needs a coalition of every Democrat and every independent in the district, along with somebody else to win....and he'd be more likely to pick up whatever number of business Republicans live in the district than he would the social conservatives, even if many of them are closer to Democrats on economic issues.  Ultimately, however, there's a danger if the Democrats go all DLC at a widespread level as it becomes easier to lose even more of the economic populists.

            •  German Catholics..... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, LordMike, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              That's the ethnic core of MN-06.  They were Democrats in the 1970s....but Roe vs. Wade was the primary catalyst to shift them to the GOP.  Granted the district has changed a lot since George McGovern was competitive here in the 1972 Presidential election, with a lot more upscale exurbanites having moved there, but in terms of the greater Minneapolis-St. Paul area this district has few places that I would define as genuinely "upscale".  It's more middle-class commuters who are gun owners and churchgoers who settled there looking for a place in the country.  Michele Bachmann is way too hard core for a high percentage of them, but it's the social issues that where they are closest to her in spirit if not necessarily in severity.  I submit there will be far more people going into the voting booth with abortion as their top issue than the injustice of Dodd-Frank slapping around white knight bankers.

      •  What sorts of moderates live in MN-06? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        Yes, it's a red district, but it's nearly 10 PVI points bluer than WI-05, so there have to be some moderates who might vote for the right Democrat against someone like Bachmann. Also, does MN-06 have any sort of machine? Part of why WI-05 is so red and so high-turnout is because of the Jensen Machine in Waukesha County (this is also how people like Nickolaus get elected to county offices).

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:01:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good write-up about Graves today... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      in the Star Tribune. He's even getting a warm reception at Tea Party meetings.

      Lawrence Johnson, a retired Tea Party activist from St. Cloud, came to the event sporting a Bachmann sticker on his lapel.

      "We love our Michele here" in the Sixth District, he said. But Johnson also found himself liking what Graves had to say. "When he loses," Johnson said, "next fall he can run against Mark Dayton as a Republican."

      Graves vs. Dayton...lol.

    •  Based on recent polling (0+ / 0-)

      Lean-R might be justified, but I fully understand your caution, given that this district has been fool's gold for Democrats over and over.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:46:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pretty sure McMahon actually touted her own (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, Woody, MichaelNY

    bankruptcy in her "I wasn't always rich" ad.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 07:47:15 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen tracker Obama 49-46 with leaners (5+ / 0-)

    but ticks down to 46-45 on the non-leaner score. Obama approval net positive at 51-48.

    It always has to be emphasised that due to his R-heavy partisan sampling there is a built-in lean on Rasmussen's polls, probably in the order of 5 points. So these are actually very friendly numbers for Obama.

  •  CT-01: No idea what it means (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    but I was on the Hartford Courant site and saw a web ad with the hilariously Colbert-esque slogan "John Larson.  Keep the eagle flying."

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 07:54:37 AM PDT

  •  Michigan State House Poll (16+ / 0-)

    Dems ahead by 13 points in a state-wide generic Dem vs. generic Rep poll.  Michigan voters favor Dems for House

  •  I got polled by American Future Fund yesterday (7+ / 0-)

    A potential sign that they're planning on going up in Wisconsin?

    Nothing terribly interesting in the questions - Presidential and Senate toplines and a ton of demographic questions (the most unusual of which were probably military status and religious affiliation.

    The closest thing to message testing in there was a question on whether I thought the President's policies were helping the economy.

  •  So Obama may have the fundraising edge (8+ / 0-)

    after all.

    link.

    I think it's foolish to write off the Romney campaign this early. But one risk of the RNC/DNC money is that campaigns dont control that fund directly.

    So I wonder if going into October, RNC decides to shift some resources from the presidential campaign to the senate campaigns of Berg, Rehberg, Allen, Thompson and even McMahon to win back the Senate.

    Btw, the convention wisdom on fundraising has been pretty wild this year. From a $1 billion Obama campaign to $1 billion for Romney, to now, probably a smaller total for both, with Obama having the edge.

    •  Wishful thinking (0+ / 0-)

      The RNC's ONLY job at this point is to assure Romney wins. Everything else is secondary or tertiary.

      •  Really? I disagree (4+ / 0-)

        I think they have some responsibility over those races, especially if it could mean control of the Senate.

        In addition to the ones I listed, NV and MA will be close, and possibly IN and AZ too. I cant see them not helping there.

        And really only two of the races, NV and VA, seem to be states that are competitive at the presidential level.

      •  Even if that is true, (0+ / 0-)

        do they expect outside groups to come to the rescue, however stupidly?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:31:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How Much Longer Will That True? (8+ / 0-)

        Another couple of weeks like he's had in the last two and the RNC's only job will be to save their Senate and House candidates from Romney's millstone around their necks.

      •  Not wishful thinking... (5+ / 0-)

        I actually hope they don't make the switch. I think spending on Romney will be a bigger waste of money.

      •  You're wrong about that (11+ / 0-)

        The RNC is less Presidential-focused than the DNC in Presidential years.

        And I, for one, am writing off the Romney campaign for good.  Partly because it's not at all early, on the contrary it's extremely late.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:57:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Good point. Early voting begins... (7+ / 0-)

          In several states this weekend. Perhaps we are finally reaching the point where "the goose is cooked". Maybe we just have to wait and see how burnt (for the RNC) that goose turns out in November...

        •  How is it late? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          out of safety, never write anything off

          Hail to the king, baby.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:28:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  For me, late is 10PM CST on election day (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            or even later if it winds up really close then. I didn't even take 2008 as a forgone conclusion.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:07:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  It's Very Late (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            This race started in November of 2008.

            It started in earnest in December 2011 and has been going non stop ever since.

            And nothing has changed in the dynamics of the race since December 2011.

            Except Romney is a horrible candidate.

            The only way Obama loses is if he takes a month long vacation and suspends his campaign.

            And yes, I would be volunteering if I weren't actually working on a campaign myself.

            My fiance is volunteering for Obama on Sunday and has been for the last two weeks.

        •  I wrote him off when he got the nomination (3+ / 0-)

          Worst candidate ever in a year like this.

          GOP thinking:

          The economy is awful and people are upset by big business and big banks and all those millionaires who caused the worse economic disaster since the Great Depression.

          Who do we nominate?

          I know: a Mormon elitist who, if elected, would be the richest president this nation has ever had, who, by the way was born a millionaire and who made all his wealth as a corporate raider.

          What could possibly go wrong?

          •  George Washington and (6+ / 0-)

            Andrew Jackson were probably both richer.

            For our money, George Washington wins hands down. In the largely tax-free environment that characterized colonial America, the Father of His Country was considered one of its richest residents, a product of his shrewd business sense, a marriage to a wealthy widow and several inheritances. He benefited from an older brother’s marriage into a powerful family, while early work as a surveyor helped give him a keen understanding of land.

            His Mount Vernon plantation grew to 6,500 acres, and he had other acreage in Virginia and what became West Virginia. Washington ran farms, started businesses and owned lots of slaves. Indeed, in their 1996 book, The Wealthy 100: From Benjamin Franklin to Bill Gates–A Ranking of the Richest Americans, Past and Present, Michael Klepper and Robert Gunther ranked Washington 59th, ahead of later-day moguls like J. Paul Getty, Microsoft cofounder Paul G. Allen and Ronald Perelman. The authors’ ranking methodology used estimated net worth as a percent of the gross national product at the time.

            http://www.forbes.com/...

            I've seen some pretty varying estimates of Andrew Jackson's wealth, some placing it at a gargantuan 1 billion dollars in todays terms.

            Herbert Hoover was also exceptionally rich for his time period, but unlike Romney, Hoover was a legitimately self-made man from a poor uneducated family.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:09:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Wonder what you think about this Ambinder article (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          http://theweek.com/...

          I really like Mark Ambinder, but I don't find any of his scenarios for Romney turning it around that plausible. His debate scenario is one I've pondered, and here's the problem: look at 2004. John Kerry kicked ass in his first debate against Bush, absolutely destroyed him as I remember, and it still wasn't enough. Obama is a better debater than Kerry too. Debates matter a little, but not as much as conventions and Kerry already blew that.

          •  debates (0+ / 0-)

            Obama also has about 30 points of IQ on Bush, and 50 points of public speaking.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:11:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I love Ambinder, but this particular column... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            markhanna

            ...has been reduced to nonsensical gibberish by the events of this month.  Ambinder himself says he started writing it pre-Libya, and all I can gather is that he felt compelled to move ahead with it, in spite of intervening events.

            The truth is the events of September have put us beyond the point of no return.  Underscoring the point is how easy it is to shoot down Ambinder's 5 points.  The most laughable is his no. 3, persuading Dems we're going to lose.  Um, we're at the opposite extreme, the GOP is panicking with the realization they're going to lose, and we're going to win.  There is no way to make a 180-degree turn on that without other events making it a reality.  The Medicare argument is almost as ludicruous specifically because Romney already made that case unfettered for weeks to no effect.  He's done attack ads and mailers.  He and Ryan have heavily stumped on it.  Maybe it helped neutralize, at least partly, the damage of the Ryan plan, but it's had whatever effect it's going to have and Romney is getting killed worse than ever before.

            The points about a stellar first debate and a humanizing moment are less crazy, but still not likely, and of dubious value even if they happen.  Obama is in the driver's seat with surging job approval, and that means he's now winning the referendum, which in turn means Mitt's own image doesn't matter as much.  If Obama looks good up there on the debate stage and everywhere else, it no longer much matters how Romney looks.  And in any case, Romney has been underwater for so long that he's got too steep a hill to climb with too little time to climb it.

            And the Iran/Israel argument is consistently the most poorly-conceived argument the media talks about as something that somehow helps Romney.  Obama has a stellar public image on foreign policy, and Romney has destroyed his own image on that specific issue thanks to his foreign trip and then his handling of the Libya attack.  So the notion that Obama in some completely unidentifiable way could hurt himself in his response and Romney could look like a better alternative and voters would treat all this as a voting issue......reporters need to do a better job of gaming out specifics before it's a plausible argument.

            Ambinder's blog post in the early part correctly says all routes of electoral victory are blocked for Romney.  That's where we are.  At this late stage, it's where things will remain.  Romney just has to hope he doesn't perform so poorly in the debates that he completely destroys his party along with him.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:38:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do you think OFA is waiting (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              to launch a more thorough and/or brutal assault on Romney and Ryan in the final weeks?

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:46:45 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't know, but I think it's pretty thorough... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bjssp, MichaelNY

                ...right now and for many months now.

                Romney's favorables have been underwater all year.

                I'm sure they still have oppo to use, but no way to tell if it's somehow worse than before.

                I do think they've hoarded cash per a budget that allows saturation through October.  And I won't be surprised if they're seeing a massive spike in money that lets them do more than they had planned.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:34:14 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I only thought about the debate one... (0+ / 0-)

              because I found the rest of the scenarios didn't work at all.

          •  Debates (0+ / 0-)

            romney has had a lot more experience with debates this year, with the opportunity to follow up and evaluate his performance.

            Obama has had none this cycle. Period

            •  Doesn't matter (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              Obama is the sitting President.  He sat through countless debates, primary and general.  He knows what he's doing.  Obama is a Superbowl-winning quarterback who takes off a season and then comes back......some might say "rusty," but he's still the Superbowl-winning quarterback.  Romney is a rookie on this level.

              Plus, Romney doesn't handle surprise well, and Obama does.  That's a big deal, it's where mistakes and memorable gaffes happen, when one guy is surprised and fails to react effectively.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 07:15:00 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  NV-04: ICYMI earlier, another crappy "poll"... (6+ / 0-)

    From our local "newspaper" and SurveyUSA. Today, Danny Tarkanian supposedly LEADS among Latinos by 8% (??!)! He's also supposedly winning the urban Las Vegas vote and the youth vote.

    Sorry, but this is yet another EPIC FAIL for Survey USA here in Nevada.

  •  There's no hope for Larry Kissell? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    I hope he can pull it out.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:15:28 AM PDT

  •  OK-1 (7+ / 0-)

    Jim Bridenstine, the guy who beat John Sullivan, came to speak to a class of mine yesterday. Other than the obvious half-truths and inconsistencies in his arguments, he did spill that internal polling showed him beating John Olson by 29 points and Mitt Romney beating Barack Obama by 30 points. Is that in the right ballpark? I know Tulsa's a Republican area but a 29 point margin in an open seat in a race I thought was somewhat competitive seems a little much though. Is it political puffery on his part?

    20, Male, Hispanic, originally OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of the Ozarks!), currently at Princeton University

    by gigantomachyusa on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:16:59 AM PDT

    •  Probably legit (5+ / 0-)

      But even if somewhat fluffed, no prognosticator has this seat rated competitively.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:21:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That'd Be 65% Romney. Sounds About Right..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      .....for OK-01.

    •  Well, in 2008, Sullivan beat his opponent (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      66-34, and Obama lost to McCain by the same margin, so it seems believable.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:40:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll always remember Doug Dodd's race in 2002 (9+ / 0-)

      it was the first race I ever got volunteered for and will always have a special place in my heart. That was probably the closes we'll come to winning that district for a very long time. Although the Tulsa area is moving to the left at a slow pace, it's so Republican at the moment that the 1st (and its successor districts) won't be competitve for decades if ever.

      The silver lining is that the city itself should actually be lean Dem long before that (Obama might even have an outside shot of carrying the city itself this time around) so maybe city government will at least improve and be a bright spot in the area.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:45:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not as optimistic on Obama winning (6+ / 0-)

        Tulsa city proper went McCain 57-43 in '08 so the margin for Obama to win would be pretty huge. It's also not a very politically active city so the South Tulsa Conservatives who always turn out make it hard to move the dial. That being said, it is 50-50% average on DRA and I'm optimistic on the mayoralty going blue after Dewey Bartlett's inept leadership and now even more so, having pissed off Republicans with Vision 2. I'm very optimistic we'll win that race.

        The City Council is much harder.  A simple analysis of the City Council districts shows that on balance there are 3 Democratic seats, 3 Swing seats, and 3 Republican seats. In reality, Republicans have a 7-2 majority even holding a Democratic seat with Blake Ewing. Given the new tiered system of council elections, we'll be lucky to have Democratic city council this decade. It doesn't help that the 2 City Councilors we have are the most incompetent tools on the planet. Jack Henderson doesn't get along with anybody and is quite dumb in person and the other one isn't really interested in the city at all.

        So, mayoralty=likely in 2013, city council=unlikely until the latter half of the decade, Obama=very unlikely this cycle.

        20, Male, Hispanic, originally OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of the Ozarks!), currently at Princeton University

        by gigantomachyusa on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:02:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Party barely matters... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, okiedem

          in Tulsa politics and it especially didn't before I left for college in the early-mid 2000s. Back then, you had "the gang of 5" alliance between Chris Medlock Republicans (the Tea Party before there was a Tea Party) and progressive, mostly black Democrats. They teamed up to sink the River Tax, and they thwarted much of Mayor Lafortune's agenda. I thought Kathy Taylor was a decent mayor but let's remember that she had a ton of Republican support (including Dewey, who was supporting her before she dropped her re-election bid!).

          I've spent very, very little time back home since 2008, but it seems like the landscape hasn't changed. Lots of Republicans hate Dewey and guys like Jack Henderson have remained relevant allies of the mayor's intra-party rivals. I actually like Henderson. Now that Roscoe Turner's gone, he's by far the most outspoken member of the council and I appreciate that he isn't afraid to call out other members for their bs. I wouldn't want to work with those types of people, either, and when you consider the interests of his district (and all of North Tulsa, basically), I don't think there's much common ground to carve out with the current crop of city councilors.

          But I absolutely agree that Tulsa proper won't be competitive at the Presidential-level for a very long time. I can't think of another city of our size where McCain did as well. As for Olson, last time I checked he had very little money and he's pretty anonymous across the district. My money's on Bridenstine to pull at least 65%.

          •  Oklahoma City (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lordpet8, gigantomachyusa

            and Tulsa are, I believe, along with Bakersfield which is also full of Okies, the only cities with >250,000 residents where McCain won (note that I make a distinction between cities and suburbs)

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:15:45 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I generally hear what you're saying (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa

          especially because I haven't been living in the city for several years now and am a bit out of touch with local politics. I will say that the city itself is closer to 45-55 Obama and has some very positive demographic trends that should make it competitive in the not too distant future. Definitely agree that neither Tulsa County nor Oklahoma will be competitive any time in the foreseeable future.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 05:05:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Ugh ignore typos above (0+ / 0-)

        I had a very long night at work yesterday and am a bit zonked.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:23:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Is it just me, or is this headline (10+ / 0-)

    a bit misleading?

    Clinton: 47 percent comments 'overstated'

    It makes it seem like he is defending Romney, but if you read the article, he is referring to 47% figure being overstated(because people pay payroll tax, state, local taxes, etc).

  •  Purple Strategies Polls (16+ / 0-)

    AZ – Romney 48-45
    CO – Obama 48-45
    FL – Romney 48-47
    NC – Obama 48-46
    OH – Obama 48-44
    VA – Obama 46-43

    Composite of CO, FL, IA, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, and WI – Obama 49-44

    http://www.purplestrategies.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:22:47 AM PDT

    •  Kind of hard to believe Obama would be ahead (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, lordpet8, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      in NC, but not FL. Good numbers overall though.

    •  An Obama advantage in NC from the Purple Monster! (7+ / 0-)

      and AZ within 3. FL is disappointing but a 1-point difference is consistent with the othe polls there within MOE.

    •  Hm, Arizona. (12+ / 0-)

       Interesting...

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:33:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very interesting (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, abgin, MichaelNY

        A bit closer than I'm expecting.

        I also like how, inexplicably, Minnesota and New Mexico are averaged in the "Purple Poll" but Arizona and Missouri aren't.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:03:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Arizona would seem to come down to (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          Hispanic voters. If we can believe the exit polls, we are stable with white voters. But would it surprise anyone, anyone at all, to see an increase in support from Latinos? Hell, even if our white support is less than what exit polls say it is, an increase Hispanic support just from McCain not being on the ballot could  balance things out.

          A big part of me thinks I am way off in some way. I mean, if we really are closer to 45-47 percent, why wouldn't they contest the state?

          Whatever the case, while I am still thinking about my predictions, Arizona's one of the states where I suspect we might be surprised come November 6, if only by a little.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:39:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Digging into the crosstabs on that... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, MichaelNY

        It's 31D/38R/29I. In 2008, it was 32D/39R/30I. So tracks very closely to that. Looks legit.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:07:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If Obama is within three (4+ / 0-)

        I can believe that Carmona is ahead.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:21:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I've been saying for awhile now (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that minus McCain's homestate boost, we might have won the state in 2008.  If Obama is headed for another easy national win, the state will be competitive.

    •  Considering Castellanos is the head guy (5+ / 0-)

      These are good results.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:43:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Purple is automated calling, right? (5+ / 0-)

      So they don't poll cell phones?  Usually they skew very R... so these are overall very good

      ESPECIALLY Arizona, if it's that close then we might just take that Senate seat too.  Need to see more polling there but this is encouraging, especially considering that they only have Romney doing 2 points better in Florida (which other polls have OBama up but mid-single digits).

      •  Here's their methodology. (5+ / 0-)
        Fielded 9/15-9/19, interviews were conducted using a mixed methodology of automated telephone interviews
        using landline phones and online interviews of voters who predominantly or exclusively use cell phones.
        Seventy-five percent (75%) of the interviews were conducted via phone, and 25% online with cell phone users.  Total weighted N size=1000 likely voters, margin of error +-3.1. AZ, CO, FL, NC, OH, and VA have been
        oversampled to N=600 per state, margin of error +
        -4.0.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:54:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  those are all plausible (4+ / 0-)

      meaning the margin is probably within 3 either way of what those have. Romney's probably +0-3 in NC and maybe AZ, Obama +0-3 in the others. 3 points in AZ is believable. The state was R+4 from 1996 to 2004, and if it's still R+4 then if Obama is up 5 nationally he should be down 3 in AZ.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:06:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I believe that they will expand the map in October (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        if they choose too. They have time to see if a wave is building.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:14:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not to beat a dead horse, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          but this is why I spend a lot of time thinking about baselines. I've been told that field operations are usually planned before Labor Day, which makes sense, but I've also been told that these things are fluid. It's certainly harder to set up shop late, particularly in a harder-to-win state, but is it impossible? I would think not. But regardless of how hard it is, I would guess it's easier if the baseline is higher--if Obama is at, say, 47 percent because McCain isn't on the ballot and because he'll get more Hispanic support than last time, rather than 43 percent.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:27:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just out of curiosity, how much do you know (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera, Woody, MichaelNY

            about field ops?

            About all an organization kicking off in October can do is build for GOTV, and even that's iffy in states where Democratic lists aren't that great.

            If Obama spends a lot on AZ, it'll probably be in the form of Ads in mid to late October if he's headed towards a blowout.

            •  Well, I'd (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

              say not as much as I should. Maybe it's close to nothing; I don't know. There are some books I've been meaning to read.

              Anyway, just to be clear, it's not as if I expect a repeat of 1984, and if nothing like this happens, I won't be surprised.

              But if there's a shift to where we could move resources into marginal states, the list of states where this would occur is pretty clear. First up would probably be Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri, and maybe Montana as well. Those states, along with even more marginal states like South Carolina, Georgia, and the Dakotas, are places where OFA had some presence in 2008 and, to a (much) lesser extent has a presence this year.

              Maybe this isn't all that different than what campaigns usually do. I mean, every Democratic presidential campaign having an office open in Atlanta wouldn't surprise me. Whatever the case, something is there, and that's before we get into other field efforts outside of the presidential campaign itself AND before we consider that Romney is doing little to nothing to match us directly (i.e. specific Romne offices) or indirectly (i.e. small scale voter reg. efforts).

              I like to think of it as a back up car that can still drive, even if it hasn't been started up in a while.

              As far as ads go, who knows what effect they might have? Perhaps two weeks of ads that back up a more general shift to Obama could tip a few states our way.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:03:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I wouldn't bother with Missouri... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                But I would probably air ads in Arizona, Indiana, and Montana, yeah.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:09:10 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agree Completely...... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I don't think anybody's planning a map expansion this year under any realistic circumstances but if there was a late offensive into red states I think Missouri should be avoided at all costs.  The consensus has been that Obama's (and the Democrats in general) biggest problem in Missouri is the rural areas, but that's only half true.  What is most troublesome for Dems in Missouri is that the suburban areas are trending Republican, in contrast to most of the rest of the country.  And I'm not talking about far out exurban enclaves here, I'm talking about Clay County which contains a portion of the city of Kansas City, and Jefferson County south of St. Louis, which was the core of Dick Gephardt's old Congressional district.  Obama lost Clay County outright and won Jefferson County by two points.  In both counties, Obama underperformed Gore.  Any state where in the two bellwether suburban districts, Obama underperformed Gore, that state is slipping away in a major way.

                •  What do you think Obama's base in Missouri is? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  The ten biggest counties in the state, in order, are St. Louis, Jackson, St. Louis City, St. Charles, Greene, Jefferson, Clay, Boone, Jasper, and Franklin. Obama received 1,008,637 votes from these counties, while in the state overall he received 1,441,911. This is a difference of 433,274.

                  In 2004, in the ten biggest counties, Kerry received 868,511 votes, compared to 1,259,171 votes overall. This is a difference of 390,660.

                  It might be a little crude, but take Kerry's base in the rest of the state and add Obama's total in the biggest counties. The total is 1,399,287. The extra 42,614 are still in the 2008 voter pool, which was 2,929,111, but they go to McCain, making his total 1,488,428, or 50.81 percent. Obama's total becomes 47.77 percent.

                  In other words, if you think Obama can match his 2008 totals in the ten biggest counties and do no worse than Kerry in the rest of the state, his base could be 47.77. Or, rather, the difference between Kerry's total of 46.10 percent and Obama's 49.23 is 3.13 points, and 1.67 percent of his improvement came from the biggest counties. Of course, you could also say that about half came from the rest of the state, which might see a HUGE drop off from 2008.

                  Whether you think of the glass being half full or half empty, unless you think Obama's going to get destroyed in the biggest counties, I'm not sure why we should expect to see his total be all that different from Kerry's. It might be lower, but I don't think it's going to drop that much.

                  "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                  by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:33:08 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

      •  clarification (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        By +0-3 I mean relative to Purple's numbers, not (for instance) that Obama is only up 0-3 in Ohio.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:06:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Good to see, despite the source. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      AZ is surprising.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:30:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nice swings in VA and OH from this Pollster (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      VA
      9/15 - 9/19    600 LV    4.0    46    43    Obama +3
      8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    4.0    45    48    Romney +3

      OH
      9/15 - 9/19    600 LV    4.0    48    44    Obama +4
      8/13 - 8/14    600 LV    4.0    44    46    Romney +2

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:21:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If Arizona is really just 48-45 Romney (0+ / 0-)

      Why isn't OFA advertising there?

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:14:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AZ is surprisingly close (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    especially given purple strategies' apparent Republican lean. Also kind of odd that they have Romney up in FL but down in NC - that is clearly inconsistent with the weight of polling in both states. Decent numbers for Obama overall, given how unfriendly most of PS's polling has been.

    I can't be bothered to get the calculator out again but I think from memory that this composite of states was very close to the national margin in 2008, so a +5 lead is very healthy.

  •  Loving the Arrested Development reference. (5+ / 0-)

    I was thinking that the whole notion of "Why should you go to jail for a crime that someone else noticed?" rings true with the video of Romney at the fundraiser. Fox News's objection was hardly what Romney said, it was the fact that the video was released by Mother Jones and Jimmy Carter's grandson.

    I miss that show.

    18, FL-24 (home) MD-07 (heart). UCF sophomore, Organizing for America Summer Organizer, politically ambitious, vocally liberal--what else could you need to know?

    by tqycolumbia on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:40:57 AM PDT

    •  You know it's coming back via Netflix, right? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      I always wonder if it would have survived if (a) it had been on NBC instead of Fox, (b) if Fox had left it behind "American Idol" back when it was about twice as popular as it is now for at least a season, (c) or Julia-Louis Dreyfus had been Lindsay Bluth instead of Portia de Rossi. Specifically on that last part, it's funny to think of how much stronger of a position the networks were in back then, when they could say no to someone like JLD over demanding too much money.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:47:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If you didn't get your money into Intrade... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, bythesea

    ...earlier, I'm afraid you blew it.  Obama's up to 72% as of this writing.  It's too late to make any decent money on the race now.  :-D

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:14:56 AM PDT

    •  Have you seen what's happened to the senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      numbers?

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:20:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Invest in individual states (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      I would use intrade, but it's become so ridiculously difficult to buy into as an American because of regulations.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:13:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  why oh why (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Woody, MichaelNY

    Do pollsters poll a presidential race but not a Senate race? CNN doesn't seem to have asked about NV-Sen in its NV poll released yesterday. And whatever you think of Purple Strategies it would have been nice to finally see some AZ-Sen numbers, since they polled AZ-Pres.

  •  Outside Groups Out-Mobilizing OFA? (4+ / 0-)

    Read this article and tell me what you think.

    A few highlights, with my responses following:

    President Obama’s reelection prospects look better in recent polls, but organizers from both parties report growing evidence that new voter-outreach programs funded by conservative groups could give GOP nominee Mitt Romney an edge if the race is close.
    Well, sure, if things are close...but are they? I also wonder about the cumulative effect of bad news for weeks on end will have on the right's ability to get its voters to turn out. When was the last time Romney had a week that wasn't bad, let alone good? And this is to say nothing of problems that certain parts of the base might have with him.
    In Florida, for example, Republican legislation, since overturned in the courts, effectively dampened pro-Democratic voter registration efforts during critical months in 2011 and 2012, resulting in registration gains for Republicans in the crucial Tampa Bay area since the 2008 election.
    Okay, well context is key here. Why don't they provide any numbers?
    In Ohio, the evangelical group behind a successful anti-same-sex-marriage amendment that helped mobilize conservative voters in 2004 says it has a network of 10,000 churches and a database of millions of rural voters who will be targeted with in-person visits and voter guides. And in Wisconsin, a traditionally Democratic state, conservatives have built a house-by-house turnout machine already tested in the successful campaign to fight a union-backed recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker in June.
    The success of the right in Wisconsin does give me pause, but did Republican groups sit on their hands in 2008? If so, why? And if not, why are we to fear use of this supposedly powerful network of churches?
    “It’s a much more robust field operation than the 2008 McCain campaign had, that’s clear,” said Jim Messina, Obama’s campaign manager. But, he added, “the other side is trying to pay to replicate what we spent years to build.”
    I take this as acknowledgement of the point I've been suggesting for months now, which is that OFA isn't starting from scratch while the other side, in a lot of ways, is. It's not clear how much of this matters in marginal states like Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona, but in a state like Virginia, which was only recently built up, doesn't it help? It's my understanding that these things always require up keep, but that neglecting them is like going without an oil change for months and months on end. That McCain in 2008 did neglect it puts Romney at a disadvantage, or at least started him from behind, in a state like Ohio but especially in a state like Virginia or North Carolina.

    Also, are there no Democratic outside groups?

    What about the Romney campaign itself? My impression, formed by looking at each candidate's site, was that OFA was out mobilizing Romney in pretty much every way, even in states which nobody expects to be competitive. I assume I am not missing something; after all, why hide a voter registration or phone banking effort? And of course, there are field offices, where we far outnumber Romney even if you include combined offices.

    If Romney's side is relying on outside groups to do most if not all of the heavy lifting, I'm not sure what to think, but if I had to guess, I'd say it's...not good. This stuff is a group effort in a lot of ways, but wouldn't a campaign want to exert as much direct control over the process as possible?

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:17:21 AM PDT

  •  I hope Obama doesn't win AZ or GA or IN... (13+ / 0-)

    ...or else we'll all have to put up with bjssp becoming the next tommypaine the next 4 years.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:18:38 AM PDT

    •  ... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      Well, if it does happen, I'll probably gloat for a few minutes. But without sounding like I have my head too far up my own ass, it's not something personal, where I have a lot invested in it outside of something on the level of a hobby. I imagine you feel much the same way, as much as we both care about ideology.

      Anyway, what does tommypaine gloat about?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:33:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's not so much that tommypaine gloats... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, SaoMagnifico, jncca, MichaelNY

        It's that he's absolutely convinced that the opinion that he gives is correct, and that it's stupid to have ever come up with an opinion that contradicts his (no matter how outlandish it might be).

        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

        by NMLib on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:50:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, okay. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That I can see.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:09:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And that's what (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NMLib, MichaelNY

          Republican presidential nominee Santorum loves about tommypaine.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:11:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's funny, that now that it is over... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ramesh

            I will succumb to your silly taunt and point out that I was 100% right about the Republican nomination, and you and the others who prematurely ejaculated in January were wrong.   The race was not over.  There was plenty of race left.

            A few points change in Michigan and Ohio, or a burst of sanity on Newt's part, would have prolonged the race even more.

            LOL, of all the things to bring up, the thing that it is plainly obvious I was right about and you were wrong about!

            (Here's a hint, the one thing I was definitely wrong about was the vote of the Illinois small cities, which were much more favorable to Romney, and thus allowed him to win lots of places outside of Chicago and thus the state.)  

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:43:31 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Nah you just changed your tune (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, MichaelNY

              And started qualifying everything with "if Santorum doesn't do this" or "if Romney doesn't do that".  

              LOL, but I think your tone proves the point that was being made that you ar eindignant towards everyone and have never been wrong.

              Anyone can search your posts where you said the nomination was Santorum's.  Or Gingrich's.  Heck you seemed unaware of Mormon strength int he Mountain west for a while.  

              Just because the race went on for a while doens't mean it was close, any more than a NFL team playing 60 minutes to win by a score of 70-14 means that it was compeititve.  No one could clinch early which by definition meant the race would drag on...the GOP changed delegate allocation rules in many cases to ensure this happened :-)

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:57:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  You know you are making up garbage, so why say it (0+ / 0-)

                Feel free to find these phantom posts.  Why make up such nonsense.

                I said the ball was in Santorum's court... and I said his fool mouth is what would kill him.

                I got howled down here last summer when I said Romney was a sure thing to win the nomination.  Then when Perry joined the race, and conservative support did coalesce around him, I said it was going to be hard for Romney to win, and I said exactly what he needed... for the conservative vote to stay split, which it did.

                And to assert I think I'm never wrong in reply to a post where i have an example of where I say I was wrong... well, that is a new level of hubris.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:14:17 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Ok (0+ / 0-)

                  Here's you saying Mitt won't win any state in the Midwest or great plains:

                  http://www.dailykos.com/...

                  The race drags until June prediction:

                  http://www.dailykos.com/...

                  Let me know what other topics for revisionist history you'd like to present, and we'll go from there.  There's a treasure trove of stuff you wrote that you were wrong on.  And rude to anyone who suggested that Santorum inevitability wasn't real.

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:47:30 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The first one is yet again what I addressed above (0+ / 0-)

                    The second thing, I did say "ensure", and that was wrong.

                    So now I don't even know what you are asserting.  Of course I've made wrong statements.  They are just opinions.  I'd advise finding another hobby if it upsets you that someone speculating about future stuff isn't always right.

                    I'm not always right.  I make plenty of mistakes.  In the broad stroke of the primary campaign though, I was right.  The race wasn't over in January.  It was over actually... wait for it... when, like I said, Romney started winning the majority in states.

                    What isn't true is what you made up, pretending I said Santorum would win.  I never said that.  While Romney's path was narrow at a few key moments, it was always there, and he succeeded by following the narrow path, ie, winning MI, OH, IL.  It's obvious now to anyone that if Romney had lost any of those that the race would have been much more difficult for him, but even then, he would still have had a path to victory.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:12:30 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  Too bad you can't come up with an example of that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          My opinions are opinions.  If you disagree, fine.

          If I didn't think my opinions were right, I wouldn't say them.  

          DCCyclone likes to pontificate that his views are right, regardless of any objective evidence to the contrary.  When he makes up fictions, like how he insisted Santorum was more unpopular than Romney, or how he hounded down anyone who commented on the blatantly obvious Ryan bounce, or how Bush1 was not viewed as a wimp even though his own pollster invented the phrase "wimp factor", etc etc etc.  These are all objective facts.  Stubbornly creating a fantasy alternate universe is one thing.  Absolutely insisting others are somehow out of their minds because they don't believe the fantasy is no fun to deal with.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:38:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The Reagan 1980 comeback myth (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    I wonder if part of the reason GOP is using that theory with Romney, is because of a perception that when challengers win, they usually win big. Reagan got 489 EV in 80, FDR 472 in 32, Clinton 370 in 92.

    The exception seems to be Carter in 1976. Ford, obviously, wasnt the typical incumbent president, having never been elected to that position or VP previously.

    So maybe the feeling is either Romney wins big or doesnt win at all. Not saying that's right, but maybe that is the theory.

  •  Today's the 25th anniversary of Where's Waldo (6+ / 0-)

    an integral part of my early childhood.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:21:30 AM PDT

  •  "47% comments" now seem to be a part of (16+ / 0-)

    Obama's stump speech

    That might be the biggest problem for Romney, is that the comments already played into the pre-existing views of him that OFA was already emphasizing.
  •  National Journal's Almanac of American Politics (4+ / 0-)

    They announced today that Sean Trende (of Real Clear Politics) and Josh Krashaaur (of the Journal) will be helping author the next Almanac of American Politics.

    What is this going to be, the Fox News Almanac of American Politics?  Currently the main author, Michael Barone, leans right (he didn't always) but his vast knowledge of election stats, past and present, is a major resource and his travelogue commentary is often very interesting (he claims to have set foot in each and every Congressional district, though I'm not sure if that's true of the maps that will be in effect for the next edition.)  But Krashaaur is usually a GOP cheerleader/hack and Trende, while thoughtful and less obviously partisan-biased, often leans right as well.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:36:47 AM PDT

    •  In Terms Of Sheer Partisanship..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ramesh

      ....even Kraushaar and Trende will be a step up from the insufferable Barone.  On the other hand, Kraushaar's National Journal diatribes have been so detached from political reality in the last year that the publication will lose credibility if he's the one trying to educate us.  I have some respect for Trende though.

    •  helping (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8

      I'm ok with that as long as they also have a Dem or two in there for balance.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:09:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mason-Dixon to release new Florida Poll.... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Mark27, jj32, askew, MichaelNY

    this afternoon at 5pm ET but I don't know if it'll be the Senate or the Presidents portion of the Poll.

  •  If I can't use exit polls, what can I use? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, fearlessfred14, MichaelNY

    I was told recently that I shouldn't pay attention to exit polls. I understand their limitations, but I always assumed they were a rough guideline--and slightly rougher in states with high levels of minority turnout but with relatively low levels of support for Democrats amongst whites.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:42:29 AM PDT

    •  Of course you can use them (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But that footnote way at the bottom will always be your death or salvation...i.e. the margin of error on subsamples is always big enough to debates.  The more you try to hone in on things the more challengeable conclusions become.

      Who is telling you to ignore exit polls?  At least you're getting actual voters.  The only thing that can go wrong is (1) voters lying about their choices or (2) the sample in the poll not matching the electorate.  

      Regular polls have factors like "undecided" being an option and likely voters who end up not voting.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:17:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know they aren't perfect, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        especially in states where the electorate isn't uniform, but they seem to roughly line up.

        Consider Arizona. If you think the exit polls are off in some fairly serious way, what changed? If blacks weren't as much of the population as the exit polls say, were whites more? Were Hispanics more? If they weren't, did he do better with whites?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:32:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  To me (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sapelcovits

          That's all part of the fun.  I enjoy even silly stuff in PA where everyone seems to think white folks vote uniformly when they don't really.  A better conclusion is that regions vote in a certain way, ethnic/gender groups within a region vote the same way, and deeper and deeper.

          And then you get to the point where you realize you've proven that doglovers from PA counties that border new jersey are 3.6% more likely to vote for a hermaphroditic Republican than deaf Asian Jewish mute and you realize you've dug too deep, too too deep.

          "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

          by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:40:35 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  As much as (0+ / 0-)

            a detailed analysis is important, it's nice to have a shorthand way of describing an entire state.

            As it happens, I have made some legitimate progress with my infamous Texas diary. For the longest time, I had been putting numbers into Excel manually, which was incredibly tedious and very prone to error. It turns out, I was just looking in the wring places and/or being a dunce with Excel functions.

            I didn't get a chance to do anything in the last few days, but since some point last week, I managed to get county-level information for the previous three elections and for race. I'm just trying to figure out the best way to discuss age, and I might actually be able to begin formulating a few situations.

            I'm debating whether to release it before the election. 2012's results would certainly be interesting to add, but they might not be final for weeks after election day. I guess I can always provide an update, though.  

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:58:20 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I don't know who told you that (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rdw72777, Marcus Graly, MichaelNY

      but the real thing you can't do with them is prove election fraud of 2% or so. That's a real zombie lie.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:19:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Someone who has experience in (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        field ops or something similar told me this.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:58:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  user 270 thinks exit polls are wildly (0+ / 0-)

          inaccurate,  for what it's worth.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:23:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can see both sides of the argument. (0+ / 0-)

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:28:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I can't tell you how much time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fearlessfred14

        I spent arguing with people in 2008 that were convinced exit polls "proved" that 2004 was stolen and that the Republicans would just steal that election too.

        30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

        Truman: "The buck stops here!"
        Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

        by Marcus Graly on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:13:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Exit polls were used as evidence (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CatFelyne

          to demonstrate election-stealing in Ukraine. When they re-ran the election, the results didn't mirror the exit polls, but the identity of the winning candidate did shift.

          And while Zogby was clearly wrong in their initial exit polls in Florida in 2004, as I repeat ad nauseam, it will never be clear what likely voters' intentions were in Ohio, because we'll never know how many people left the line and went home, instead of waiting over 12 hours in the rain to vote in heavily Democratic areas.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:35:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  PPP says poll will show Baldwin ahead (13+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...

    Still hope that Thompson keeps up his stumbling.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:51:49 AM PDT

    •  I'm amused he's blaming trouble partially on Mitt (7+ / 0-)

      We all thought picking Ryan would be a boost.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:58:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Mitt's still a bad candidate for Wisconsin (6+ / 0-)

        because the swing voters are mostly blue-collar, rather than the white-collar suburbanite swing voters Romney appeals to. Ryan probably is the reason Romney isn't genuinely down double digits here.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:17:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  interesting point (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, sapelcovits

          in MN and WI, the rural areas are the swingiest, not the suburbs.  Hadn't really thought about that.  Also true in Iowa, I think.  

          And for that matter, is it completely true?  I bet there are lots of swing voters in the suburbs of Milwaukee County and even a few in WauKe$ha.  I'm not sure.  But it's an interesting point and could explain why he's doing weaker than expected in the Upper Midwest.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:24:56 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There are some swing voters in the MKE suburbs (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but the purple areas are only about two or three miles wide. What's more, they're pretty inelastic by suburban standards. Note in sawolf's diary that Obama underperformed in these areas even though he should have been a great candidate for them. This is almost certainly because those suburbs are polarized and inelastic, so they don't swing as far in highly Democratic elections like 2008.

            Where the elastic purple suburbs are is the Fox Valley, especially the Green Bay suburbs. Unfortunately for Romney, that part of the state also contains industrial areas where alternative energy is fairly popular and vulture capitalists are not.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:55:10 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I almost forgot the other urban area (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            namely Madison. Some of the Madison exurbs are somewhat swingy, but increasingly they are becoming reliably Democratic across the ticket. The City of Madison is almost completely inelastic, delivering almost exactly 80% to the Democratic candidate every time.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:58:19 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  At what point can we think she's legitimately (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, SaoMagnifico, redrelic17

      ahead and won't need a gigantic Obama victory to win? The same sort of polling appearing in two weeks would certainly convince me she can do it, but right now, don't things seem pretty good? We've gotten several polls that show her, at worst, only slightly ahead. I guess it's possible for them all to be off in some way, but after a certain point, even the doubters have to wonder what's up.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:06:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  dumb question, but have the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

      anti-Thompson ads been flooding the airwaves there? Is that why the race is shifting? Because this seems like a pretty sudden shift to Baldwin. Not that I'm complaining, just wondering why.

      •  Yes, they have (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, KingofSpades, itskevin, askew, MichaelNY

        Baldwin has great fundraising, and has been running loads of ads, as has EMILY's List. Also, Baldwin's been campaigning on the ground, while Thompson's been at fundraisers all the time. Retail politics are still very important in Wisconsin.

        Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

        by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:22:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Additionally, Baldwin will have great field (4+ / 0-)

      First, there is the advantage Obama has over Romney in field offices, 54 to 26.  Secondly, unlike in other states, there is complete coordination between OFA and DPW.  For all intents and purposes, there is no difference between OFA and DPW, there is one structure with one flow of communications.  So that is one advantage Baldwin will have down the road Thompson will not have.

      Social Democrat, WI-05

      by glame on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:03:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am pretty sure a big chunk of Mitt's WI offices (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

        are combined efforts, in comparison to OFA's. Not that there's no combined efforts on our side, but we seem to have efforts on top of whatever the state parties may be doing.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:13:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  After the special and recall elections... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I wouldn't underestimate Republicans' ability to GOTV in the CoI.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:23:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  CoI and Dane always vote (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          and certainly in presidential elections. The question is Milwaukee and outstate, particularly in the Fox Valley where Walker's GOTV effort worked much better than ours.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:17:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, Baldwin (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            simply can't get blown out of the water by double digits in Otogamie and Brown counties. She needs to keep those areas 50/50, and do much better in areas like LaCrosse and Eau Claire. I also was mystified at how Barrett and Feingold underperformed Obama by like 15 percentage points in southeast Wisconsin, in Dale Schultz's territory.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:25:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Once the ads hit the airways (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      that he wants to "do away with Medicare", I think Thompson's finished. Nail meet coffin.

      http://www.dailykos.com/...

      30, (new) MA-7, Unenrolled

      Truman: "The buck stops here!"
      Romney: "The buck stops somewhere in the next county..."

      by Marcus Graly on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:18:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gallup at least no worse (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    still 47-47 in the horserace and a slight uptick on approval, now 47-48

    •  Literally every other national poll has Obama up (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, ArkDem14

      Because the last two flipped today - ARG and Angus Reid. Those are now 49-47 and 48-46 respectively. The most amazing thing about Gallup is they still maintain these are registered voters.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:13:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yesterday someone noted, there might be (0+ / 0-)

      a bad one day sample in there, like Tues. If the numbers, particularly approval, improves then they might be right.

  •  Peggy Noonan: Romney campaign a rolling calamity (8+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    She's worked with campaigns, so I think she knows what she's talking about.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:12:57 AM PDT

  •  MA-Sen: This seems a tad unfair (5+ / 0-)

    from D. Bernstein:

    "He's had a long day." That, according to spokesperson Jim Barnett, is why Scott Brown skipped the post-debate media availability last night.

    Turned out Brown still had the energy to not only do Dan Rea's radio show, but also go drinking at the Green Briar.

    I dunno.  Going to a bar after a long day isn't the most unusual thing.  Especially when you're an incumbent Senator with a good chunk of your political career based on being the guy people want to have a beer with.  I'm sure Warren spent some of the evening having martinis in the Harvard faculty lounge and/or PBRs with Occupy Wall Streeters.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:15:45 AM PDT

  •  PPIC LV poll of California props: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    http://www.ppic.org/...
    Prop 30 leads 52%-40%
    Prop 32 is starting to slip behind with 49%-42% in opposition.  
    Molly Munger's Prop 38 at 45%-45%.
    Ending the 3 strike rule to no longer require death is ahead 50%-45%.
    Obama leads 53%-39%.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:16:21 AM PDT

    •  Obama margin smaller than Field poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but almost exactly the same support for Brown's initiative.

      •  Their last poll, 3 months ago, had Obama ahead (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, jj32, MichaelNY

        by only 11.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:37:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  which is fine as I think (0+ / 0-)

          Romney has a ceiling in the high 30's in CA

          "Supernatural: a show about the two underwear model brothers who are always hallucinating about ghosts and demons"- Misha Collins

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:19:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That seems absurd (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            A "ceiling" for Romney would be Bush 04, IMO.  That would be with a Romney national win, but I think at this point Romney's ceiling is still a national win.  He's not 100% out of it.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:29:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  What do you think fair odds would be? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Where there is life there is hope, so 100% is impossible, but...

              if you were a bookie, and thus trying to get an equal amount of bets on both sides of the equation, what would you put Romney's chances at?  2-1?  6-1?  37-1?

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:15:37 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Very surprised ending the death penalty (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      is passing.  Pleasantly surprised, though.

      Anecdotally, my dad used to support the death penalty and now opposes it, and while he's a Democrat, he did vote for Steve Cooley for AG, but I'm still surprised.

      I think Prop 30 needs to be 5 points ahead in polling, and it's extremely important, much more so than any other proposition.

      You've got the 3 strikes rule thing wrong; modifying 3 strikes is extremely popular, while ending the death penalty mildly so.

      Looks like every liberal measure should pass this time if polling holds.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:28:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Herman Cain Claims He'd Be Doing Better than Mitt (15+ / 0-)

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:17:36 AM PDT

  •  Sarah Silverman Explains Voter ID Laws (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, lordpet8, bythesea, JDJase

    Let My People Vote Get Nana A Gun

    This is awesome and an offbeat way to explain voter ID laws to young folks and her fans. I love her.

    Note: Contains "foul language".

  •  Ras in PA (7+ / 0-)

    nice I guess for Scotty;

    9/19 - 9/19    500 LV    4.5    51    39    Obama +12

    Gallup tied again at ahem, 47%

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:23:11 AM PDT

    •  this must be the 1 in 4 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      of his state polls that conspiracy was talking about. Who'd have picked Scotty as the Dem outlier in the state?

      •  he's so farcical, he needs to poll Vermont (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        it'll either be
        Obama 48 Romney 39
        or
        Obama 88 Romney 12

        "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

        by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:30:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This doesn't seem too off (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Obama has been very strong in PA. The Romney margin might be a little low, but I could see a lot of conservative voters, especially in Western PA, put off by Romney and still not committing to him even if they will probably vote for him on Election Day. But yeah, this year I'm thinking Obama actually inches up to 55 or 56 percent of the vote. Remarkable for a hard fought state like Pennsylvania that has always had a decided Republican lean at the local level; Bob Casey will become the first Democratic Senator reelected in Pennsylvania since Joe Clark in 1962.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:19:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  LOL. Scotty, you so . . . transparent (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:27:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MT-AL: Emily's List has put (5+ / 0-)

    Kim Gillan "On the List".

    http://emilyslist.org/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:26:18 AM PDT

    •  good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      this is an under the radar race we can win, although I wouldn't bet on it.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:30:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  fwiw, here is that internal poll from PA GOP (0+ / 0-)

    link

    Obama 48-47, Casey 45-42. As the article notes, presidential campaigns and their allies are basically off the air in PA.

  •  Apparently, Romney releasing his 2011 tax return (6+ / 0-)

    today.

    I dont get the logic of waiting until Sept to release just one more year of returns, and then make it the most recent year. The year you were running for president. The year, of course, you made make sure nothing controversial was there.

  •  Had to laugh at this PPP tweet (8+ / 0-)
    PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
    We have had a woodpecker pestering our office all week, any suggestions on how to get rid of it? (no we're not going to shoot it)

    robert fahit ‏@baho010
    @ppppolls Yeah, capture it and shove it up your liberal ass!

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:48:08 AM PDT

    •  Why not just shoot into the air? (0+ / 0-)

      Doesn't that sort of thing usually scare off birds?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:00:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My vote will finally count! (9+ / 0-)

    I've been living in Minnesota since the summer (working on a campaign, I might add) and I just got my voter registration card in the mail. Since I've been eligible to vote in 2008, I've voted in either the most Republican state House district in the most Republican state in the country (Oklahoma) and Washington, D.C. It feels good to finally be voting in place where this election matters!

  •  The whole Romney / Thompson spat is hilarious (6+ / 0-)

    I mean, when he started running, did he think Romney would be winning in Wisconsin? Obama was up by pretty similar margins then, too.

    •  Meanwhile, is he campaigning any harder? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      Or is he just whining?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:01:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think he expected to win easily (0+ / 0-)

        without having to really try, like he did the last two times he ran for Governor (1994! and 1998) and Democrats only bothered to put up sacrificial lambs against him.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:14:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Even in 1994? (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think it's all that shocking that we lost, but why didn't we try?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:35:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Chuck Chvala wasn't a sacrificial lamb (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          He was the Senate Majority Leader. It was just 1994. Dude lost Dane County.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:16:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just goes to show you how much (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, BeloitDem

            Dane County has changed in 20 years. Of course the Waukesha and Washington and Ozaukee have become much more Republican during the same time period.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:21:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Madison was represented by a Republican (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              In the House: Scott Klug. He served from 93-99. Tammy won his seat after he retired.

              You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

              by Gpack3 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:39:53 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I know, that's why it's incredible to (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Gpack3, MichaelNY

                think how much the political landscape has changed.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:41:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Dems never put up sacrifical lambs (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          "the liberal Tom Loftus" was speaker of the Assembly.  Chvalla was majority leader.  Ed Garvey was well-known around the state (and country) and had previously run for Senator.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:32:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Garvey was a sacrificial lamb (0+ / 0-)

            Nominating him was giving up.

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:40:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not really, no one would have beaten Thompson (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              except Proxmire, not even Kohl.  Garvey may have been sacrificial, but he was not a some dude guy.

              Garvey did much better (38%) than Chvala had (31%).

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:52:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  His only primary opponent (0+ / 0-)

                Was St. Sen. Gary George, an African-American man from Milwaukee who'd faced an unsuccessful recall attempt for supporting Ronald Reagan. He would be successfully recalled some four years later.

                If that's the primary field, the Dems gave up on the race.

                You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

                by Gpack3 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:03:58 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Nice write up of the campaign in the MJS (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Craig Gilbert's a solid dude. He'd fit right in around here:

      http://www.jsonline.com/...

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:58:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Awesome hard-hitting meme rebuttal to Mitt Romney: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    http://johnjlm.tumblr.com/...
    Kind of a "We are the 47%" sort of thing.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:57:49 AM PDT

  •  What Territory Does The New CA-10 Entail? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    Is it suburban Sacramento?

    •  No, it's in the Central Valley (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, ArkDem14, Marcus Graly

      centered around Modesto. I think most of the district is currently represented by Dennis Cardoza, but I could be wrong. You must be thinking of the 7th, which is indeed suburban Sacramento :)

    •  well It covers most of Stanislaus county (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, MichaelNY

      http://www.mpimaps.com/...

      Cities include: Tracey, Modesto, Oakdale, Mateca

      Democrats have a 5 point registration advantage, but keep in mind many of these Dems are rather conservative. Obama narrowly carried it. Also my old roomate grew up here so I've definitely visted the area a few times.

      "Supernatural: a show about the two underwear model brothers who are always hallucinating about ghosts and demons"- Misha Collins

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:49:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of retired state workers (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        and a growing Hispanic population. As a whole the district is trending more Democratic, and Denham also hasn't represented a good-sized portion of it, either in the U.S. House or in the California State Senate. I'm feeling fairly bullish here.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:13:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  we definitely have many factors working (4+ / 0-)

          in our favor. Much of the area is ancestrally Democratic.  Denham is still new to both the house and to much of the area, thus he hasn't really been able to entrench himself.
          The Stanislaus district had previously sent two Democratic Majority whips to congress. John McFall and Tony Coelho.

          One of my good friends who lives in the area told me Denham's been out campaigning like hell. So even Denham realizes that he could be in trouble.

          We really need a 4-5 seat pick up in CA if we want to win back the house this year

          "Supernatural: a show about the two underwear model brothers who are always hallucinating about ghosts and demons"- Misha Collins

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:34:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Polarization definitely (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            hurts Republicans that are trying to hold down increasingly Democratic districts like this one.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:20:12 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Ryan booed at AARP (10+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:10:30 AM PDT

    •  Always nice to see, but (0+ / 0-)

      lines like these piss me off:

      But the crowd didn't seem to buy Ryan's claims that the healthcare law had weakened Medicare. He cited Medicare's chief actuary, who has said the law's $716 billion in Medicare savings will not actually extend the program's life, as its independent trustees have projected.
      To imply Foster, Medicare's chief actuary, is on the same side as Republicans is beyond ridiculous. There's a legitimate debate to be had over the assumptions in the ACA, but you wouldn't know that from this snippet. Why bring this up at all?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:26:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Scott Brown seems to have (7+ / 0-)

    had a pretty bad debate. The perception is that he went too negative and Warren came off as much better and more relevant.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:19:36 AM PDT

  •  Enyart saved our bacon. (9+ / 0-)

     While it may not be hard to run rhetorical circles around Plummer, Enyart's really a confident candidate. We're lucky he got into the race.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:26:56 AM PDT

  •  Horsford (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    There's no reason for him to be underperforming Obama by this much. At the same time, I think 45% is probably a high-water mark for Tark.

    •  I definitely believe that Tarkanian will get 45% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      probably more.  That doesn't mean he'll win.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:30:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Perhaps, but if Horsford plays his cards right... (0+ / 0-)

        there's no way that much more than 45%+ of the district votes for him. If Horsford closes this thing out with a good campaign, I can't see Tark moving up more than a couple points beyond this poll.

        Comments are my own.

        by dem4evr on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:40:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA State house (0+ / 0-)

    So this is sorta random question.
    Do any of you why the sitting Democratic House Speaker, Keith McCall, chose not to run for another term in 2010?
    Was it health issues? a scandal? tough reelection campaign ahead?

    I just find it strange. Anyways the Republicans easily picked up the open seat in 2010.

    "Supernatural: a show about the two underwear model brothers who are always hallucinating about ghosts and demons"- Misha Collins

    by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:32:40 AM PDT

    •  probably to double dip (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Which is the politician's way at almost every level in PA.  He got appointed to the PA Gaming Control Board at $145K per year, but they were mulling a law forbidding appointments of legilslators taking such positions straight out of office.  

      I imagine he was trying to get ahead of it, like Senators or Congressmen who retired a few years back before the lobbying rules for post-congressional service went into effect.

      http://paindependent.com/...

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:06:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  California (0+ / 0-)

    995 LV    4.4    53    39    Obama +14

    prior
    5/14 - 5/20    894 LV    4.2    50    39    Obama +11

    http://www.ppic.org/...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 11:48:19 AM PDT

    •  Consistently the most conservative (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      leaning California polls.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:10:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NRSC out with another anti-King attack ad... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    In Maine. Hits King on wind power.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:08:45 PM PDT

    •  Is King going to respond to these? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Are they going to work? Maine voters seem pretty parochial and hostile to outside money groups telling them how to vote.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:10:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm starting to fret a bit about this one (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ehstronghold, James Allen, MichaelNY

        King doesn't seem to be running a very robust campaign.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:20:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  So Far All The King Ads I'm Seeing..... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        .....are positive ones.  The fact that he's on the airwaves at all suggests he's a little nervous, but the fact that he isn't attacking Christie Vilsack yet suggests he's not that nervous.  The only shred of optimism I've been able to muster yet for either Boswell or Vilsack came yesterday with the Presidential poll result out of Iowa.  Both Boswell and Vilsack head some major wind at their backs at the top of the ticket to prevail.  There was little indication they'd get that 48 hours ago...but if Marist's sample is right and Obama is pulling away to the tune of eight points in Iowa, there's an outside chance....but still better for Boswell than Vilsack.  

        •  Ah....Thought You Were Talking About Steve King! (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, ArkDem14, ramesh, MichaelNY

          Guess I need to read the thread a little more closely before posting.

          •  And I got excited that we were targeting Peter (7+ / 0-)

            King! We have too many Kings in our democracy.

            28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:19:46 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I think Boswell might surprise many people (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen

            In many ways this district is a much better fit for him than his old one, and really, Latham has only represented a small portion of it. It contains a big block of voters, in Story and Polk (Ames and Des Moines) that are solid Democratic voters up and down the ticket. It contains a small group of Republicans that fall in the same group. Then a big chunk of rural territory, some of it that Boswell has represented before, and a lot of which has gotten more Republican of late at a Federal level, but have some Democratic traditions.

            I still just remember Boswell winning by more in 2010 than Loebsack and Braley did, despite having a rougher district.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:13:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  IA3 (0+ / 0-)

              Ames is in IA4. On IA3, I suspect that it will go the same way at the House level as at the presidential level. Obama won it by 6 in 2008, so he should probably be favored to win it again. I agree that a lot of people underestimate Boswell, he usually does well even though he isn't a great fundraiser. Latham isn't abrasive like King is, but his voting record is pretty conservative (if somewhat more moderate this session) and I don't see why he would have any more crossover appeal than Boswell would.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:00:42 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  IA-03 Is A Completely Different District in 2012.. (0+ / 0-)

                Polk County is the ONLY county consistent with the 2008 configuration.  The rest of the district is now hostile southwest Iowa.  It's gonna be a very tough hold for Boswell and Obama won't have the domination of the Omaha media market, reaching into southwest Iowa, that he had in 2008.  Too early to count Boswell out, but he's an underdog.

            •  Boswell Ran A Great Campaign In 2010..... (0+ / 0-)

              .....he defined his opponent Brad Zaun as a cartoon character early and Zaun was simply unelectable by November even in the incredibly hostile 2010 political environment.  He's barely visible this year with a much stronger opponent.  The current configuration of IA-03 consists of only Polk County as a holdover from the district's previous configuration.  Tom Latham keeps three counties of his old district, all fast growing exurban counties (Dallas, Madison, and Warren).  The rest of the terrain is also hostile for Boswell....rural southwestern Iowa.  Now back in the 1990s, Boswell's original district contained a few of these tiny farm counties, and it's possible some will stick with him, but these are counties that have been trending away for Democrats over the past decade and where I think Obama will be an anchor at the top of the ticket.

              Furthermore, there's exactly one place in Polk County that's Boswell-friendly and that's the city of Des Moines.  The rest of the county leans Republican, and is growing fast.  Effectively, it's the 200,000 residents of Des Moines versus the 500,000 lean-Republican voters in the rest of the district.  Boswell will need serious strength at the top of the ticket to overcome these odds.  The guy is a survivor, but I think this is the year falls unfortunately.

              •  Polk County has also been getting (0+ / 0-)

                more Democratic as it grows.

                And Boswell did represent quite a few of these rural farm county voters in the 1990s, and he's traditionally over-performed far more in rural areas than he has in suburban areas, where he laid eggs in 2006 and to a lesser degree, 2008. He's essentially a rural, farmland politician. He's from Decatur county. And unlike certain other areas of rural central and Western Iowa, this area actually has a Democratic tradition, that means Boswell has the opportunity to do better than Obama.

                I have a question though. How come the rural territory of Iowa has defied the trends? The rural counties in eastern Nebraksa, northern Missouri, parts of Southwest Minnesota, and Southern Illinois, that ring Iowa, have trended hard-line Republican and gotten extremely socially conservative, while Democrats have remained competitive and even favored in much of rural Iowa?

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:51:38 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Polk County Has Gotten More Republican.... (0+ / 0-)

                  .....as its grown.  This was Mondale country in 1984 when Des Moines represented the vast majority of its population, putting it at about D+11.  Comparatively, 20 years later, when the majority of its population has come from its growing Republican-leaning suburbs, Kerry's performance put it at D+5, and that was an improvement from Gore's D+3.  Even Obama, who had a very good year for a Democrat in modern Polk County, managed only a D+4.

                  I can't remember exactly which counties were in the 1990s version of IA-03 compared to Boswell's new district.  I'm pretty sure Ringgold, Adams, Union, and Taylor are among them.  His home county of Decatur is not one of them.  It's a pretty small number of votes coming from this cluster of counties even if they do go Boswell, and after a decadelong hiatus when these counties all shifted towards Republicans, it's no sure thing.

                  I can't definitively say why western Iowa and the nearby area in neighboring states have been moving so strongly to the Republican, but the slow trickle of younger residents out of these areas combined with the corporatization of farms hasn't helped.  What used to be populist 250-acre farmers ekeing out a living three decades ago in these areas are now 2,500-acre corporations trying to shirk feedlot regulations, among other things.  

                  Furthermore, the area used to have a lot of unionized food processing plants and the union activism led to a leftist political climate in a bunch of the towns that hosted them.  Today, most of these towns with food processing plants are nonunion and have a revolving door of mostly immigrant labor, the vast majority of which is legal but are not citizens and thus can't vote.  In towns like Worthington, Minnesota, and Denison, Iowa, which have particularly high nonwhite populations, we started to see the first signs of a reversal of that trend, however, with high turnout in 2008 leading to Obama victories in the communities after two decades of trending the other direction.  Still, I would say the trendline in the entire region is for it to lurch still more Republican.

                  •  The Mondale and Obama (0+ / 0-)

                    percentages were similar, with Obama getting a larger percentage, and the number of votes cast much larger, so Democrats get more net votes out of Polk.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 06:34:31 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And I was asking why rural Iowa (0+ / 0-)

                    is still often friendly to Democrats, or marginal in any competitive race, whereas the rural areas that surround the state are Rock-Ribbed Republican areas now?

                    I think it's purely a result of cycle in and cycle out, intimate attention from both parties, with active bases and large amounts on investments and infrastructure, that have kept white rural folks in the state from drifting away like they have most places in the midwest and the country at large.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 06:37:19 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  The Part of Rural Iowa That is Friendly To Dems... (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, ArkDem14

                      .....is generally because of long-standing union ties or else the shift to organic farming in the Mississippi River valley counties.  In the northeastern corner of Iowa where I went to college, the combination of those along with moderate Scandinavian heritage and nonevangelical Protestant denominations have given today's GOP limited appeal.

            •  I think Boswell has a good shot. (0+ / 0-)

              Especially after seeing the absentee requests for this district.

              Hail to the king, baby.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 04:33:52 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  FL-26 - someone should e-mail the hill and ask (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    wtf?  Seriously irks me when journalists get facts wrong.  

  •  CA10 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, hankmeister, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    Denham's 49% in the primary is misleading, because about 15% of the vote went to indie Chad Condit. That said, the polls suggest that Hernandez is picking up a lot of the Condit vote which shouldn't be too surprising seeing as Condit's father represented the area as a Dem. If Hernandez can turn out the Hispanic vote he should be in good shape.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:19:09 PM PDT

  •  Homer (5+ / 0-)

    Simpson votes for Mitt Romney. At least Homer wasn't grinded up this time ;)

    Mitt Romney: Lacking judgement

    by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:28:41 PM PDT

  •  YouGov Polls (6+ / 0-)

    GA – Romney 50-44
    IN – Romney 50-44, Mourdock 41-38, Pence 48-33
    MO – Romney 49-43, McCaskill 45-38, Nixon 51-33
    TN – Romney 49-42, Corker 49-25
    TX – Romney 52-41, Cruz 50-31

    http://today.yougov.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:35:21 PM PDT

    •  Nice (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If you can believe them.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:36:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  49-42 In Tennessee???? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      That would be great if it were right.  YouGov isn't the latest incarnation of John Zogby is it?  Zogby told us Kerry was winning Tennessee in 2004.

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I remember feeling burned by Zogby, but I don't remember that.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:49:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Why do you hate reality so? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        You just make up your alternate universe and pretend all the facts don't exist.

        FACT... there have been five polls of TN this year.  ALL have been between 3 and 7 points.  Three of them have been 7 points.  One has been six points.

        Who knows what reality is, but the pollster consensus is plain:  TN is between 5 and 9 points now

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:58:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm Already On Record Eating A Shirt..... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, lina, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

          .....if one of my predictions fails to materialize.  Will you vow to eat one of your own if Obama loses Tennessee by more than seven points?

          •  See, this is how you and I are different (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lina, wwmiv

            I have no clue how much Obama will lose TN by.
            I... don't... know.  

            All I know is what the polls say.  This is what the polls say.
            These are the factual polling numbers.  They may be right, they may be way wrong, but this is what they are.

            So, if you believe they are wrong, give us reasons why the polls are wrong.  You just assert something that there is no evidence for, and where there is a lot of evidence now to the contrary.

            You may be right in the end, but if you are, it means these polls were all very wrong.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:19:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In The Case Of Tennessee..... (0+ / 0-)

              I seem to remember all of the polls being wrong in 2004 and 2008.  Everybody predicted Bush and McCain would win, but I don't know of anybody who expected they'd win by 14-15 points based on available polling.  Makes it easier to dismiss TN polling in 2012 as well, especially since it flies in the face of all common sense based on TN's trendlines.

    •  I can't link to the specific poll info (0+ / 0-)

      do you have dates on those polls? The polls they released yesterday were actually somewhat dated.

      •  Weird (0+ / 0-)

        I can't get through to any of them either anymore.  There are actually a bunch more states they did today other than the ones I mentioned above.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:55:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Interesting (0+ / 0-)

      Purple Strategies showed Romney only up 3 in AZ -

      There have been several polls this year that show TN is single digits.  Usually just dismiss them but Romney only up 7 points is a bit surprising...

      Also nice to see Obama down only 6 in IN and GA.  Would be nice to make those and AZ competitive if Obama starts to take off in the swing states (which he already has...)

    •  4 out of 5 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      4 out of 5 of those are believable +/- 3 points, but what's with TN? Every time I've seen it polled this cycle, it's shown a much smaller margin than in 2008. Is there some sort of Dem resurgence there despite the national party doing nothing and the state party apparently ceasing to exist outside Memphis and Nashville?

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:51:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bad Polling Seems The More Likely Result...... (4+ / 0-)

        Impossible to imagine that the decadelong transformation of Tennessee is suddenly reversing itself that quickly.  We probably won't get a good poll out of TN this cycle, so my guess is we won't know for sure what's going on there until Romney wins it by 20 on election night.

        •  ??? Why is it impossible to believe (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          that people in TN think Romney is a bigger asshole than Mccain?

          Why is it impossible to believe that Obama08 was a floor, and that now that he is facing a much less attractive candidate to people of TN that Obama will get back some of those voters who see he isn't a disasterous/Muslim/commie?

          Why is that "impossible"?

          (Again, I'm not saying it is happening, only wondering why you are closing your mind totally to what seem like obvious possibilities.)

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:24:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Because 2008 Has Already Proven To Not Be A Floor. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            Democrats did far worse in 2010 in TN than in 2008 or any year before.  It's not credible to believe Obama has turned oublic opinion around that much in Tennessee.

            •  Obama didn't run in 2010 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv

              This is a Prez cycle.

              "It's not credible to believe Obama has turned oublic opinion around that much in Tennessee."

              Around how much?  Are you saying it can't turn as much in the past two years as it did the previous two years?  That isn't credible to start with, but the electorate in 2012 doesn't compare to 2010.  It compares to 2008.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:28:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Did blacks not show up in 2008? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        They are 16.7 percent of the population in the state, but the CNN exit poll has them as only 12 percent of the electorate that year. I guess it's also possible Obama could do better with them, although considering he supposedly received 94 percent of the black vote in Tennessee that year, there's not that much more room to grow.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:58:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Seems Hard To Believe Given The Margins..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          .....in Memphis and Nashville, both of which were pretty incredible and exceeded those of Gore and Kerry by several points.

          •  Memphis and Nashville (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            are both just trending more Democratic.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:02:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  It's not just TN (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        The majority of polling shows Obama performing better in solid red (not purple) states than 2008.  No improvment in OK and WV, but Obama has polled waaay better in SC, TN, KY, for example.  PPP says in Texas too.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:02:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not sure what to think (0+ / 0-)

      They are internet polls right? otoh, everything except TN seems plausible. For the presidential numbers.

    •  Tennessee (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Davidsfr, MichaelNY, KingofSpades, wwmiv

      At this point I have to conclude that Barack Obama will in fact do better in Tennessee than 4 years ago.  Every poll taken there so far says so.

    •  Nice to finally see some red state polling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      instead more of the tedious blue and purple state polling.

      It's hard to pretend now the rest of the polling this year was wrong.  Romney doesn't seem to be doing as well with Reagan Dems as Mccain did.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:07:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd love to see PPP (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        take a whack at, say, South Carolina, or Montana again, before the campaign is over.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:10:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think TN had tons of Reagan Dems (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I mean, in a way it did, since nearly everyone in the Western 2/3 of the state was a Democrat, but Mondale didn't underperform there.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:02:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Another chapter in Mr. Toesucker's polling (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, KingofSpades, MichaelNY
    Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. Those surveys, in fact, suggest no such thing!
    http://thehill.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:49:27 PM PDT

    •  ugh what has this guy been drinking (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, MichaelNY
      But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent.

      So when the published polls show Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

      umm no! has it ever occured to think that the voters may just not vote at all.

      It's like if political spectrum was like the salt content of the soup you order in a restraunt. The President ofcourse would be the chef making the soup.
      Lets say you're not happy with Obama anymore but you like Romney less.

      It would be like a customer unhappy that his/her soup as it is too salty! Now would the customer ask for a new chef (Romney) who would make an even a saltier soup? No

      "Supernatural: a show about the two underwear model brothers who are always hallucinating about ghosts and demons"- Misha Collins

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:12:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You know, even if they do break for the challenger (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, bythesea, ArkDem14, Mark27, MichaelNY

        they probably are not going to break 100% for the challenger, which is what Morris is predicting.

        •  The 1980 myth (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          Aside from the myth that Reagan was behind, when the polling average showed he had a narrow lead, the political landscape is not what is was then.  Now, it's a lot more polarized and there are far, far less truly undecided.  And those that are, won't go in a uniform direction.

          1980 was atypical in that you had a debate one week from the election, and election day fell on the one year anniversary of the "hostage crisis."  That combination caused such a massive swing among the undecided.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 04:14:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think even some Reagan adviser or biographer made the same point about the polarized electorate.

            I think another point this person mentioned, that Republicans are in denial about, is that Obama isnt Carter and Romney isnt Reagan. Obama is a much more popular, likable, charismatic politician who has a stronger approval. Romney doesnt have the charisma or connection to the conservative base that Reagan had.

      •  Dick Morris is utterly clueless, (5+ / 0-)

        in a way that I'm sure how he gets works. This latest rant is even more ridiculous than his 2008 Presidential map. Undecideds don't all go to the challenger. In fact if they haven't decided by now it means a that a sizable portion of them won't vote or will vote third party, and the remaining two-thirds will likely split between the two candidates. This sort of silly reasoning was why Democrats kept saying they were going to beat Bush in 2004, because he was up but the undecideds would break heavily for Kerry. It just wasn't true then, and its less true now when polling shows that undecideds are no longer mostly conservative leaning like they were at the beginning of the year, and that they are a decidedly diverse mix, and among whom Romney has worse favorables than Obama.

        This sort of grasping at straws is mind-boggling.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:59:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A VERY General Rule about Undecideds is (0+ / 0-)

        That they usually break against the incumbent 2-1 (66% to 33%).  However, this is VERY general.  As we saw in 1980, almost ALL the undecideds went to Reagan -- as in almost 100%.

        27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

        by IndyLiberal on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:45:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  seriously, how does Morris still get published (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Paleo, bythesea, redrelic17

      on otherwise serious sites? He has as much relationship to political analysis as the Jerry Springer show has to analysis of social problems.

  •  The "likely voter" conundrum in a WI nutshell (0+ / 0-)

    On the one hand, Marquette does not include as "likely voters" people who describe themselves as "very likely" to vote.

    On the other hand, amongst it's "likely voter" group Marist  includes people who are "not enthusiastic at all" about voting.

    Then, only about 10% of Marquette's  registered voter samples are discarded as not likely voters.  In contrast, about 25% of Marist's registered voter samples are discarded as not likely voters.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:51:55 PM PDT

  •  NC-08: Why the DCCC stopped ads.... (6+ / 0-)

    precisely because airing them is so damn expensive.  The 8th district is split between several media markets, including two big ones (Charlotte and Greensboro).  And then the eastern part of the district, around Hoke, Scotland & Robeson counties, is not really even in a defined media market... it's sort of in between Raleigh, Wilmington and Florence, SC.  So the DCCC obviously thought it wasn't worth the huge sum of money to air here.

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:54:43 PM PDT

  •  YouGov Arizona (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Romney 51-41; Flake 43-37

    http://today.yougov.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 12:58:07 PM PDT

    •  A whopping 72 percent of the sample in this poll (4+ / 0-)

      is 45 or older, compared to 56 percent in 2008, and Hispanics are only 6.98 percent, compared to 14 percent in 2008.

      I don't always like to question cross tabs, but REALLY?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:03:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I see that as a legitimate criticism (6+ / 0-)

        You are not talking about crosstab results (i.e. Hispanic voters split evenly between Romney and Obama) but sample composition, which can often be indicative of a serious problem with the polling methodology.  

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

        by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:07:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  If OFA's voter registration (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        drive in AZ went well, I could see the margin being closer than the polls say, maybe closer than 2008 because of higher Hispanic turnout. But I still think Romney wins.

        •  Well, do you think Hispanics in Arizona (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          will give more of their votes to Democrats than they did in 2008, if only because McCain's not on the ballot? I do. And when you consider what the Republican party has done in the state, wouldn't it also make sense to think even more Hispanics would vote for Democrats? I think it does.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:31:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  YouGov Connecticut (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32

    Obama 53-39; McMahon 45-40

    http://today.yougov.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:03:17 PM PDT

  •  More YouGov Fun (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, sacman701, KingofSpades

    MN – Obama 50-41; Klobuchar 49-34
    NM – Obama 53-41; Heinrich 50-35
    NJ – Obama 53-39; Menendez 43-29

    http://today.yougov.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:08:07 PM PDT

    •  I still refuse to take (4+ / 0-)

      online pollsters seriously. Klobuchar is under 50% against Kurt Bills? Hilarious!

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:54:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, she's not gonna underperform Obama (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:33:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  NM-Sen isn't credible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:03:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Last YouGov Poll - Washington (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Obama 52-39; Cantwell 50-37

    http://today.yougov.com/...

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:09:55 PM PDT

  •  Tennessee (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    close-ish all year, from 3-7 pts... but rarely polled. Romney's leads are far softer than McCain's. Oh yeah and the TPM National Polltracker is a joke today; an Obama spread/lead of 2.7? for once RCP owns them with 3.9.

    http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

    by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 01:54:22 PM PDT

  •  27 Yougov state polls average -3.22 for Obama (0+ / 0-)

    or in line with a 4 point national lead (not calculating for size/EVs).

    TN and WI the big outliers at either end. Rank order (change relative to 2008 performance):

    TN +8
    TX 0
    AZ -1
    GA -1
    IL -1
    MN -1
    NJ -1
    PA -1
    OH -1
    FL -1
    NC -1
    NH -2
    NY -3
    NM -3
    VA -3
    MD -4
    WA -4
    IA -4
    NV -4
    MI -5
    CO -5
    MO -6
    CA -6
    IN -7
    MA -7
    CT -9
    WI -14

    •  ok, with EVs calculated (0+ / 0-)

      it's a slightly smaller drop, as a lot of the states with below-average drops are large one.

      I make it -2.94, which would leave Obama with a national lead of about 4.3%. This is actually very close to the 538 Nowcast, so the totality of the YouGov polling looks fairly plausible even if there are bound to be some odd results in individual states.

    •  wish they'd polled KY or WV or AR (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      just so we could see if TN is a major outlier due to the pollster or due to an Obama resurgence among conservaDems

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:34:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Getting more confident everyday about (4+ / 0-)

    a CA-36 victory. Bilbary's about done now too.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 02:26:06 PM PDT

    •  Sabato moved CA-52 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

      to "Leans Dem" which strikes me as an extremely bold move considering the conventional wisdom and polling seemed to show it as a pure tossup. Of course, I'm sure Sabato has access to more info than we do, and maybe the endorsement by the R turned I assemblyman pushed Peters into the favorite position. Regardless of what caused it, I think it's excellent news and bodes well for the rest of the competitive Cali seats, particularly the 41st and 36th...

      •  CA52 (4+ / 0-)

        I would expect Peters to be favored based on the primary alone. Dems got 48.6% of the primary vote, which is more than they got in Capps' or McNerney's districts, and Peters was the more moderate of the two serious Dems so he should have little trouble consolidating the Dem primary vote. In Bilbray's 2008 race (with somewhat different district lines), Dems improved from 41.4% in the primary to 47.3% in the general.

        CA36 will be tough. Dems got 41.9% of the primary vote, although Ruiz seems to be doing well. In 2008 MBM did about the same in the general as in the primary, but her opponent probably didn't have any money.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:33:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Sabato tends to be a bit (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        clueless. Half the other ratings changes where mystifying.

        I'm just basing CA-52 on my confidence in Peters bipartisan appeal and deep pockets, as well as the Democratic-trending nature of the district he is running in (where Obama will probably do quite well).

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:44:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL Sen: Nelson 48-40 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew, bythesea

    according to the Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald.

    Up 3 on their July poll and another one indicating that Nelson is getting a lock on this race.

  •  CA-36: Somehow, that doesn't surprise me (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

    The district has economic polarization and Bono Mack is on the higher end of the polarization. Catching an incumbent talking down any part of their districts is great fodder for their opponent. This seat just might flip, which would be great.

    26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:40:04 PM PDT

  •  OH now "likely Obama" on 538's update (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, gigantomachyusa, askew

    as Obama's probabilities push incrementally upward.

    It's 2 weeks after the conventions so Obama now gets another factor on his side: no candidate ahead at this stage has gone on to lose the popular vote since Dewey in 1948.

  •  I once went through Marathon, FL. (0+ / 0-)

    It's in the Keys.  I payed a few dollars to feed the tarpons (but the pelicans were gathered as well and they were very intimidating).

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 04:52:40 PM PDT

  •  Okay, this may be silly but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, fearlessfred14

    Shouldn't someone, at some point, poll Alaska?  I can't find a single poll for the Presidential race in Alaska.

    The Obama campaign thought they had a shot at Alaska before Palin was chosen, so it seems like it's at least worth checking out.

  •  NC-07 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, tietack

    I love how in that ad, when McIntyre says Rouzer was a lobbyist for Japan, the sound of a Chinese gong plays in the background (but Japan and China are both in Asia, and they look alike, so same thing). I went biking around town today. My town is a modern, technologically advanced area similar to the Silicon Valley, not a cheap sweatshop ghetto. But you know, Japan! Asia! That's what Vincent Chen's murderers thought too, I'm sure.

    I don't say this about Democrats very often, even conservative Dems, but fuck Mike McIntyre. I think the only instance in which his loss would cause me even slight distress would be if it denied us control of the House. Maybe.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:31:27 PM PDT

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