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Election Day is 36 days away, and California absentee ballots will be mailed on October 9. While the presidential race barely registers here and there are fewer Romney signs in our front yards than California condors in our skies, congressional and state legislative races are now in overdrive for the final stretch. Here's a list of where the races for Congress, state senate, and state assembly currently stand.

Previously, I wrote three diaries after the June 5 primary. You can check them out here, here, and here. As they were written right after the primary, several ratings may have changed, and the latest ones are listed below. Instead of fleshing out each race in detail, I will first group them in tables, then list out the ones that are less than safe.

Let's start with Congress.

Safe Dem Likely Dem Lean Dem Tossup Lean GOP Likely GOP Safe GOP
2, 3, 5,
6, 11, 12,
13, 14, 15,
16, 17, 18,
19, 20, 27,
28, 29, 30,
32, 33, 34,
35, 37, 38,
40, 43, 44,
46, 51, 53
9, 24, 47
41
7, 26, 52
10, 36
21
1, 4, 8,
22, 23, 25,
31, 39, 42,
45, 48, 49,
50
30 CDs 3 CDs 1 CD 3 CDs 2 CDs 1 CD 13 CDs

The competitive races and any rating changes (maps are in PDF format):

CD-03 - Sacramento Valley/Northern Delta: Yuba City, Davis, Fairfield
PVI: D+1
Incumbent: John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove)
Candidates: John Garamendi (D), Kim Vann (R-Arbuckle)
Rating: Safe Democratic from Likely Democratic

This district gets taken off the table in favor of the Democrats. Garamendi is a political survivor and got over 50% in the primary, while Vann doesn't seem to have gained much traction despite the GOP money pouring in. The blue linchpin here is the college town of Davis, with the cities of Fairfield and Vacaville in the district's southern end swamping the more rural northern tier and pushing the district into the blue column.

CD-07 - Sacramento suburbs: Folsom, Rancho Cordova, Elk Grove
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R-Gold River)
Candidates: Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove), Dan Lungren (R)
Rating: Tossup

This area has been overheating for at least the past four years. This is a rematch, with Lungren and Bera facing off a second time. The race is extremely tight, with neither side having much of an advantage and with little room for error. For now, it's a nailbiter.

CD-09 - San Joaquin Delta: Antioch, Lodi, Stockton
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D-Pleasanton/Stockton)
Candidates: Ricky Gill (R-Lodi), Jerry McNerney (D)
Rating: Likely Democratic

Gill is catching some fire and got to speak at the GOP national convention, but that doesn't mean much when the district is simply tilted too heavily against him. McNerney isn't napping through this race either, so I don't see a path to victory for the GOP here.

CD-10 - Stanislaus: Modesto, Turlock, Tracy
PVI: R+5
Incumbent: Jeff Denham (R-Turlock)
Candidates: Jeff Denham (R), Jose Hernandez (D-Modesto)
Rating: Lean Republican

Hernandez is nipping at Denham's heels, but Denham isn't letting his guard down. Having won tough districts before, he knows (or should know) how to work this. Hernandez is catching up, but will he get over 50%+1 on November 6? Since the district is R+5, I say the odds right now are at around 40% yes and increasing.

CD-16 - Central Valley: Merced, Madera, Fresno
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jim Costa (D-Fresno)
Candidates: Jim Costa (D), Brian Whelan (R-Fresno)
Rating: Safe Democratic from Likely Democratic

Another win for Team Blue, who nearly lost Costa to the 2010 red wave. Despite being marginal and heavily Latino, the GOP candidate doesn't seem to be getting much attention. While Costa might get below 60%, he would pull this out fine.

CD-21 - Southwestern Central Valley: Hanford, Wasco, Bakersfield
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: none
Candidates: David Valadao (R-Hanford), John Hernandez (D-Fresno)
Rating: Likely Republican from Lean Republican

This district went the other way, earning a redder rating than before. Hernandez hasn't garnered much interest and money, and seems to be skating along hoping the overwhelmingly Latino district goes his way. The only reason why I'm not rating this one safe is the competitive AD-32 in the southern two-thirds of this district, which might pull Hernandez over the finish line.

CD-24 - Southern Central Coast: San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: Lois Capps (D-Santa Barbara)
Candidates: Lois Capps (D), Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria)
Rating: Likely Democratic

I'm really tempted to rate this safe Dem, but Maldonado's political history and ability to self-fund holds that back. However, Capps is still fighting strong, and the race is hers to lose.

CD-26 - Ventura County: Oxnard, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R-Simi Valley)
Candidates: Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica/Oak Park), Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark)
Rating: Tossup

Like CD-07 above, I don't see either side having the edge at this time. Brownley should have the edge due to the district's lean and this being a presidential year, but this area loves ticket-splitting.

CD-36 - Coachella Valley: Palm Springs, Coachella, Hemet
PVI: R+3
Incumbent: Mary Bono Mack (R-Palm Springs)
Candidates: Mary Bono Mack (R), Raul Ruiz (D-Palm Desert)
Rating: Lean Republican

Please wait while I congratulate myself on rating this lean Republican before many other people. Anyways, this district is creeping up people's radars, and it should be; this district was going to heat up sooner or later, and it has now. The DCCC and the California Democratic Party have set their sights on this district and are pouring money into the race. To her credit, Bono Mack isn't going down without a fight, and the district still tilts her way. However, losing strongly-GOP Murrieta in redistricting may be the fatal blow to her chances. Keep your eyes on this seat: it might surprise you.

CD-41 - Northwestern Riverside County: Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris
PVI: D+3
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Mark Takano (D-Riverside), John Tavaglione (R-Riverside)
Rating: Lean Democratic

This district remains both very much in our grasp yet is still maddeningly competitive. Much of this stems from the Dems groping in the dark: this area hasn't had a competitive race at either the congressional or state legislative level since 1992, when none other than Takano came within a few thousand votes of beating Ken Calvert in the then-Riverside-based CD-43. Since then, this area has become much more Latino, but is still untested waters. November will show if the Democrats can finally create a viable bench here.

CD-47 - Long Beach/Little Saigon: Long Beach, Garden Grove, Westminster
PVI: D+5
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)
Rating: Likely Democratic

This district is an odd mix of communities, but we're stuck with it for the next ten years. Lowenthal didn't catch fire until a while after the primary, but he seems to be easing his way into campaigning in a competitive district. DeLong might be able to push down Lowenthal's margins in overwhelmingly blue Long Beach, but that won't be enough here.

CD-52 - San Diego, Poway, Coronado
PVI: D+1
Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad/San Diego)
Candidates: Brian Bilbray (R), Scott Peters (D-San Diego)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Democratic from Tossup

Peters seems to have consolidated the Democratic base (fractured from his competitive race with former state assemblywoman Lori Saldaña) and is forging full steam ahead. It also doesn't hurt to get GOP-turned-Independent assemblyman Nathan Fletcher's endorsement. Combine that with the district's lean and Bilbray's newness to much of the area, Peters has the slight edge. Don't discount Bilbray though; he's still the incumbent, the GOP is pouring money into this race, and San Diego (like Ventura County) likes splitting tickets.

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But wait, there's more! There's also the intraparty battles stemming from the newly instated top-two primary. There are eight of these this cycle, six of them competitive. Here they are:

CD-08 - Eastern Sierra/High Desert: Mammoth Lakes, Victorville, Yucaipa
PVI: R+12
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Paul Cook (R-Yucca Valley), Greg Imus (R-Lake Arrowhead)
Rating: Lean Cook

The GOP establishment stands heavily behind Cook, while the grassroots and Tea Party are behind Imus. Both got a bit more than 15% in a 13(!)-way primary. Cook has the money edge, but anything goes as the California Republican Party continues to disintegrate in the face of fierce desert winds and the searing Mojave sun.

CD-15 - Southern East Bay: Hayward, Livermore, San Ramon
PVI: D+15
Incumbent: Pete Stark (D-Fremont)
Candidates: Pete Stark (D), Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Swalwell

Swalwell seems to have consolidated the anti-Stark vote and locked down his Tri-Valley base. Stark still has a fighting chance though; after all, he has the money, establishment, and incumbency behind him, and his coastal base, with the bulk of the votes, seems to remain loyal to him. The kingmaker here is probably unincorporated Castro Valley, sandwiched between Oakland and Hayward and the gateway between the coast and the inland areas.

CD-30 - Western San Fernando Valley: Northridge, Van Nuys, Sherman Oaks
PVI: D+15
Incumbents: Howard Berman (D-North Hollywood), Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks)
Candidates: Howard Berman (D), Brad Sherman (D)
Rating: Lean Sherman

Berman's seniority, money, establishment backing, and accomplishments may not be enough to overcome Sherman's constituent services and focus on local issues. Given the primary results and recent polls signaling little shift in Berman's favor, I have to say Sherman is going to win this game of musical chairs.

CD-31 - Northeastern Inland Empire: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
PVI: D+2
Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands)
Candidates: Bob Dutton (R-Rancho Cucamonga), Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar/Rancho Cucamonga)
Rating: Lean Miller

In California, Republicans usually don't give a damn about Democrats. Cue Dutton's appeal to the left, which I see more as a sign of desperation than genuine interest. Granted, Dutton is more moderate than Miller, but Miller is also much richer and has the establishment behind him notwithstanding his lack of familiarity in this area. Democrats may simply undervote this race, handing the seat to Miller and waiting to fight two years later (hopefully more competently this time).

CD-35 - Western Inland Empire: Pomona, Ontario, Fontana
PVI: D+10
Incumbent: Joe Baca (D-Rialto)
Candidates: Joe Baca (D), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-Chino)
Rating: Lean Baca

Baca is probably the most conservative California Democratic congressmember after Jim Costa, so Negrete McLeod is going to be a step up for progressives. However, Baca hasn't committed any missteps and has the money and party behind him, so the race is still his to lose.

CD-44 - Harbor/Gateway Cities: South Gate, Carson, San Pedro
PVI: D+29
Incumbents: Janice Hahn (D-San Pedro), Laura Richardson (D-Long Beach)
Candidates: Janice Hahn (D), Laura Richardson (D)
Rating: Safe Hahn

Does anyone here think Richardson has a shot of winning? I can't see any path to victory for her.

The remaining two intraparty races are CD-40 (Lucille Roybal-Allard) and CD-43 (Maxine Waters). Both face token opposition.

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Overall, the breakdown comes down to 34-3-16, a range from status quo to Dem+3. Three districts, CD-03, CD-16, and CD-21, become safer for their respective parties, while CD-52 is starting to hop off the fence and join the side of the Democrats. In addition to the three tossups, keep an eye on CD-10 and CD-36. They are rapidly trending blue, and a stronger push can flip them this year.

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To the state senate!

Safe Dem Likely Dem Lean Dem Tossup Lean GOP Likely GOP Safe GOP
3, 7, 9,
11, 13, 15,
17, 19, 25,
33, 35, 39
27
5, 31
1, 21, 23,
29, 37
12 SDs 0 SDs 1 SD 2 SDs 0 SDs 0 SDs 5 SDs
14 incumbent Dem
6 incumbent GOP*
26 SDs 0 SDs 1 SD 2 SDs 0 SDs 0 SDs 11 SDs

Only odd-numbered districts are up for election this year. In the even-numbered districts, 14 are held by Democrats while 6 are held by Republicans, giving this breakdown. A two-thirds majority takes 27 seats.

*One seat, SD-04, is currently vacant after Republican Doug LaMalfa resigned to run for Congress in CD-01. However, this district is overwhelmingly GOP and a Republican (either Jim Nielsen or Dan Logue, both state assemblymen) is projected to win this seat in the Nov. 6/Jan. 8 special election.

The competitive districts:

SD-05 - San Joaquin: Stockton, Tracy, Modesto
Pres 2008: 53% Obama, 44% McCain
Gov 2010: 47% Brown, 46% Whitman
Sen 2010: 42% Boxer, 48% Fiorina
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Bill Berryhill (R-Ceres/Stockton), Cathleen Galgiani (D-Livingston/Stockton)
Rating: Tossup

This race hasn't shifted either way since June, and it remains as tight as ever. Stockton has always delivered for Democrats even at the worst of times, but Berryhill currently represents an assembly district won by Obama. Berryhill needs to push down Galgiani's margins in Stockton, while Galgiani has to do the same to Berryhill's in Modesto. Short of an October surprise, this race is going to be tight all the way to Election Day.

SD-27 - East Ventura/West SFV: Thousand Oaks, Woodland Hills, Simi Valley
Pres 2008: 57% Obama, 40% McCain
Gov 2010: 47% Brown, 47% Whitman
Sen 2010: 46% Boxer, 47% Fiorina
Incumbent: Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills)
Candidates: Fran Pavley (D), Todd Zink (R-Westlake Village)
Rating: Lean Democratic

Both sides are pouring money into this race, but Pavley's fundraising far outstripped Zink's. Zink edged Pavley in the primary, but higher turnout in the more-Latino SFV portion in November keeps this district barely in the blue column.

SD-31 - Central Inland Empire: Corona, Riverside, Moreno Valley
Pres 2008: 56% Obama, 41% McCain
Gov 2010: 48% Brown, 43% Whitman
Sen 2010: 45% Boxer, 45% Fiorina
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Jeff Miller (R-Corona), Richard Roth (D-Riverside)
Rating: Tossup

Democrat Steve Clute, full of sour grapes after coming in third in the primary, endorsed Miller for this seat. While Clute might be fading into irrelevance after being out of office (and losing elections) for the past twenty-odd years, any split (real or perceived) in the nascent Democratic base in this area is dangerous, and it makes life for Roth and the Dems harder than it already is. Not all hope is lost: Brown outpaced Whitman and Boxer tied with Fiorina here, so Democrats have a fighting chance here.

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Like the congressional races, there are intraparty races for the State Senate too. Two, to be exact, both in the Bay Area.

SD-13 - San Francisco Peninsula: San Mateo, Redwood City, Sunnyvale
Pres 2008: 73% Obama, 24% McCain
Gov 2010: 64% Brown, 31% Whitman
Sen 2010: 65% Boxer, 29% Fiorina
Incumbent: Joe Simitian (D-Palo Alto)
Candidates: Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo), Sally Lieber (D-Mountain View)
Rating: Safe Hill

Hill got over 50% in the primary, and he's been full steam ahead since. Lieber hasn't been in office for a while now and is unknown in San Mateo County, which is most of the district. This race is pretty much done.

SD-15 - Silicon Valley: San Jose, Cupertino, Los Gatos
Pres 2008: 67% Obama, 29% McCain
Gov 2010: 59% Brown, 35% Whitman
Sen 2010: 60% Boxer, 32% Fiorina
Incumbent: Elaine Alquist (D-Santa Clara)
Candidates: Jim Beall (D-San Jose), Joe Coto (D-San Jose)
Rating: Lean Beall

Beall got more votes in the primary and has establishment backing. However, Coto managed to keep it close, but it most likely isn't close enough to get over the hump.

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Overall, the breakdown comes down to 27-2-11, a range from Dem+2 to Dem+4 and a Democratic two-thirds majority (finally). While I rated them as safe, keep an eye on SD-39 (San Diego). Democratic state assemblyman Marty Block is experiencing heat from votes he made in the state assembly.

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Last but not least, the state assembly:

Safe Dem Likely Dem Lean Dem Tossup Lean GOP Likely GOP Safe GOP
2, 4, 7,
9, 10, 11,
13, 14, 15,
16, 17, 18,
19, 20, 22,
24, 25, 27,
28, 29, 30,
31, 37, 39,
41, 43, 45,
46, 47, 48,
50, 51, 52,
53, 54, 56,
57, 58, 59,
61, 62, 63,
64, 69, 70,
78, 79, 80
21, 49
8, 32, 66
40, 44, 65
1, 3, 5,
6, 12, 23,
26, 33, 34,
35, 36, 38,
42, 55, 60,
67, 68, 71,
72, 73, 74,
75, 76, 77
48 ADs 2 ADs 0 ADs 3 ADs 0 ADs 3 ADs 24 ADs

A two-thirds majority requires 54 seats.

The competitive races and any rating changes:

AD-08 - Eastern Sacramento suburbs: Arden-Arcade, Carmichael, Rancho Cordova
Pres 2008: Obama 52%-45%
Gov 2010: Brown 50%-43%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 48%-43%
Incumbent: Alyson Huber (D-El Dorado Hills)
Candidates: Ken Cooley (D-Rancho Cordova), Peter Tateishi (R-Carmichael)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Democratic

I have no idea why the Sacramento Bee endorsed Tateishi over Cooley. But they did, so Cooley needs to work just a little bit harder to keep this seat blue. The odds are still slightly in his favor, given it's a presidential year and it overlaps with the more Democratic parts of the Lungren-Bera CD-07 battle.

AD-21 - Demosaur Country: Modesto, Ceres, Merced
Pres 2008: Obama 54%-43%
Gov 2010: Brown 47%-45%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 49%-42%
Incumbent: Bill Berryhill (R-Ceres/Stockton)
Candidates: Adam Gray (D-Merced), Jack Mobley (R-Merced)
Rating: Likely Democratic from Tossup/Tilt Democratic

It's a drastic shift, and it's warranted. Yes, this is a swingy area, but Gray seems to be getting most of the attention and Mobley barely pops up on the radar screen. Has the California GOP already written this off?

AD-28 - Southwestern Silicon Valley: Cupertino, San Jose, Saratoga
Pres 2008: Obama 67%-30%
Gov 2010: Brown 57%-38%
Sen 2010: Boxer 58%-34%
Incumbent: Paul Fong (D-Cupertino)
Candidates: Paul Fong (D), Chad Walsh (I-Los Gatos)
Rating: Safe Democratic from Likely Democratic

Fong gave Democrats a scare when he only got 54% in the primary against Walsh. He doesn't seem to be sleeping through it now, and with presidential turnout he should be fine.

AD-32 - Southwestern Central Valley: Hanford, Delano, Bakersfield
Pres 2008: Obama 52%-45%
Gov 2010: Brown 49%-41%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 48%-41%
Incumbent: David Valadao (R-Hanford)
Candidates: Pedro Rios (R-Delano), Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)
Rating: Tossup

The district is now friendlier to Democrats, but life still isn't much easier for them. They lost this district to the Republicans in 2008 of all years, and there's going to be a lot of scratching and clawing their way back. The GOP, for their part, aren't going to give up this gain that easily, especially when they don't have much to brag about nowadays.

AD-40 - Northeastern Inland Empire: Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino, Redlands
Pres 2008: Obama 52%-44%
Gov 2010: Brown 45%-45%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 48%-42%
Incumbent: Mike Morrell (R-Rancho Cucamonga)
Candidates: Mike Morrell (R), Russ Warner (D-Rancho Cucamonga)
Rating: Likely Republican

With an Obama performance like this, one would have thought this would turn into a serious race by now. Warner could get close, but probably won't be able to seal the deal this cycle given his lack of resources and outside support.

AD-44 - Coastal Ventura: Oxnard, Camarillo, Thousand Oaks
Pres 2008: Obama 55%-43%
Gov 2010: Whitman 49%-44%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 49%-44%
Incumbent: Jeff Gorell (R-Camarillo)
Candidates: Jeff Gorell (R), Eileen MacEnery (D-Newbury Park)
Rating: Likely Republican

The addition of heavily Democratic Oxnard and the overlapping CD-26 (Brownley-Strickland) and SD-27 (Pavley-Zink) slugfests should have made this district competitive too, but Gorell has made few mistakes and enemies and should win reelection more easily than his fellow Republicans. Having said that, the aforementioned battles will definitely depress his reelection margins or (if we're lucky enough) even cut short his career.

AD-49 - Western San Gabriel Valley: Alhambra, Monterey Park, Arcadia
Pres 2008: Obama 60%-36%
Gov 2010: Brown 55%-37%
Sen 2010: Boxer 54%-37%
Incumbent: Mike Eng (D-Monterey Park)
Candidates: Edwin Chau (D-Montebello/Monterey Park), Matthew Lin (R-San Marino)
Rating: Likely Democratic

It's still shocking how Lin managed to get over 50% in the primary in this overwhelmingly Democratic district (the only Asian-majority legislative district in the continental United States). Chau still has the upper hand though, if only because of the district's heavy tilt and his deep connections to Congresswoman Judy Chu and her husband (and current assemblyman) Mike Eng and reliance on their APIA machine to turn out the vote for him.

AD-65 - Northern Orange County: Fullerton, Buena Park, Anaheim
Pres 2008: Obama 50%-47%
Gov 2010: Whitman 50%-42%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 50%-41%
Incumbent: Chris Norby (R-Fullerton)
Candidates: Chris Norby (R), Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton)
Rating: Likely Republican

This district vacillates between safe GOP and likely GOP, but Norby's performance in the primary (59%) raised eyebrows on his vulnerability. This area is turning blue quickly as Latino growth explodes, and this election might show exactly how much potential this district has for the Democrats in their quest for two-thirds...

AD-66 - South Bay: Redondo Beach, Torrance, Palos Verdes
Pres 2008: Obama 55%-42%
Gov 2010: Whitman 47%-46%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 47%-45%
Incumbent: none
Candidates: Craig Huey (R-Rolling Hills Estates), Al Muratsuchi (D-Torrance)
Rating: Tossup

...But in the meantime, however, Democrats have to win this seat. Things haven't been going their way lately in the South Bay, nearly losing AD-53 (Betsy Butler) in 2010 and CD-36 (Janice Hahn) in 2011, with Republicans winning Torrance and the Beach Cities in both these elections. Presidential turnout should give the edge to Muratsuchi, but it's anyone's guess on how this district will go come Election Day.

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Since most state assembly races are safe for one party or the other, intraparty battles often offer its significant share of drama. This year, there are 18 races featuring candidates of the same party. Here are the more competitive and interesting ones:

AD-06 - Exurban Sacramento: Roseville, Folsom, El Dorado Hills
Pres 2008: McCain 55%-40%
Gov 2010: Whitman 57%-37%
Sen 2010: Fiorina 60%-32%
Incumbent: Beth Gaines (R-Roseville/Rocklin)
Candidates: Beth Gaines (R), Andy Pugno (R-Folsom)
Rating: Lean Gaines

Pugno, of Prop 8 infamy, has decided that he wants to challenge Gaines after all. This means less GOP money flowing into the much more competitive (two-party) AD-08 race. Gaines has establishment backing and is the wife of State Senator Ted Gaines, so she has the edge. Democrats, at least those who won't sit this out, may hold their noses for Gaines (both GOPers oppose marriage equality) if only to spite Pugno.

AD-10 - North Bay: San Rafael, Petaluma, Santa Rosa
Pres 2008: Obama 76%-21%
Gov 2010: Brown 67%-27%
Sen 2010: Boxer 66%-27%
Incumbent: Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael)
Candidates: Michael Allen (D-Santa Rosa/San Rafael), Marc Levine (D-San Rafael)
Rating: Lean Allen

Allen is an incumbent from Sonoma County, but his district got vaporized and he had to move here to run. Being parochial, Marin County mounted a challenge against the establishment and Levine, a city councilmember, made the cut. It's still an uphill climb for him, since Allen is the assistant majority leader and is favored by the Democratic establishment.

AD-18 - Central East Bay: Oakland, San Leandro, Alameda
Pres 2008: Obama 85%-12%
Gov 2010: Brown 82%-13%
Sen 2010: Boxer 81%-13%
Incumbent: Sandré Swanson (D-Alameda)
Candidates: Rob Bonta (D-Alameda), Abel Guillen (D-Oakland)
Rating: Lean Bonta

Both are great progressives, but Bonta is the party pick and outpaced Guillen by seven points. Both have support from various unions, and we probably won't object to either of them winning. Curiously, Bonta, an Alameda city councilmember, is facing a recall effort, which Guillen has publicly opposed.

AD-19 - Western San Francisco, Daly City, Colma
Pres 2008: Obama 77%-19%
Gov 2010: Brown 72%-23%
Sen 2010: Boxer 70%-21%
Incumbent: Fiona Ma (D-San Francisco)
Candidates: Michael Breyer (D-San Francisco), Phil Ting (D-San Francisco)
Rating: Likely Ting

Disclaimer: I work for Phil Ting's campaign. Breyer, son of the U.S. Supreme Court justice, has money and can self-fund. Ting has the establishment support, the endorsements, and 56% in the primary with low Asian turnout in this 44%-Asian district. You get my drift.

AD-20 - Southern East Bay: Hayward, Union City, Fremont
Pres 2008: Obama 73%-24%
Gov 2010: Brown 67%-27%
Sen 2010: Boxer 67%-26%
Incumbent: Mary Hayashi (D-Hayward)
Candidates: Jennifer Ong (D-Hayward), Bill Quirk (D-Hayward)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt Quirk

Quirk has party and establishment support, but post-primary polling have shown conflicting results, increasing the odds of an Ong upset. Mark Green, independent mayor of Union City and third-place finisher at 20%, has endorsed Ong. Quirk has the edge, but he has to hope November 6 comes sooner rather than later.

AD-39 - Northeastern San Fernando Valley: Pacoima, San Fernando, North Hollywood
Pres 2008: Obama 71%-25%
Gov 2010: Brown 64%-27%
Sen 2010: Boxer 62%-27%
Incumbent: Felipe Fuentes (D-Sylmar)
Candidates: Raul Bocanegra (D-Pacoima), Richard Alarcón (D-Mission Hills)
Rating: Likely Bocanegra

Alarcón sits on the Los Angeles City Council and is a former state assemblyman (for around a hundred days), but faces felony perjury and voter fraud charges. Bocanegra, chief of staff for current assemblyman Felipe Fuentes, outpaced Alarcón by nine points, has the party endorsement and doesn't face any criminal charges.

AD-47 - Central Inland Empire: Fontana, Rialto, San Bernardino
Pres 2008: Obama 67%-29%
Gov 2010: Brown 62%-28%
Sen 2010: Boxer 60%-30%
Incumbent: Wilmer Carter (D-Rialto)
Candidates: Joe Baca, Jr. (D-Rialto), Cheryl Brown (D-Rialto)
Rating: Lean Baca

Father and son are both in intraparty mosh pits, but Baca Jr should have an easier time than his father. They're both disliked by progressives though, since they're cut from the same conservaDem cloth.

AD-50 - West Los Angeles: Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, Hollywood
Pres 2008: Obama 73%-24%
Gov 2010: Brown 66%-29%
Sen 2010: Boxer 67%-28%
Incumbents: Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica), Mike Feuer (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Richard Bloom (D-Santa Monica), Betsy Butler (D-Marina del Rey/Beverly Hills)
Rating: Tossup

This is SoCal's version of AD-10, where a districtless incumbent with leadership backing moves into another district and promptly runs into local opposition. Butler, the incumbent, has the support of Speaker John Pérez, while Bloom is the mayor of Santa Monica. In the primary, four candidates, including Butler and Bloom, hovered around 25% of the vote, making any November prediction difficult.

AD-51 - Eastern Los Angeles: Eagle Rock, Echo Park, East Los Angeles
Pres 2008: Obama 79%-17%
Gov 2010: Brown 77%-15%
Sen 2010: Boxer 77%-15%
Incumbent: Gil Cedillo (D-Los Angeles)
Candidates: Jimmy Gomez (D-Echo Park), Luis Lopez (D-Silver Lake)
Rating: Likely Gomez

Both are progressive Latino graduates of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and work in the healthcare center. Lopez works for a nonprofit, while Gomez is the political director for the United Nurses Associations of California. That's pretty much why Gomez is ahead and will most likely win: a union, after all, uses its endorsements and contributions wisely. Gomez also has the backing of the state party, more money, and more endorsements, which can only help.

Other intraparty battles are in AD-01 (Northern Sierras), AD-05 (Gold Country), AD-23 (Eastern Fresno), AD-59 (South Los Angeles), AD-62 (Northern LA South Bay), AD-67 (Western Riverside County), AD-72 (Little Saigon/Northern OC Beaches), and AD-76 (Coastal northern San Diego County).

--

Overall, this breakdown comes down to 50-3-27, a range from GOP+2 to Dem+1, and Democrats will fall short of two-thirds by one to four seats. Fret not, however, as many districts are trending blue and will fall into Democratic hands in the ensuing cycles.

----

Think these ratings are too optimistic? Too pessimistic? Just right? Comment (and vote in the poll) below!

Originally posted to kurykh on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 10:29 AM PDT.

Also republished by California politics and Community Spotlight.

Poll

How do you think California congressional Dems will perform in November?

0%1 votes
0%0 votes
1%2 votes
1%2 votes
0%1 votes
7%10 votes
13%18 votes
26%34 votes
25%33 votes
10%13 votes
6%8 votes
4%6 votes
1%2 votes

| 130 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Really good analysis (8+ / 0-)

    I agree on pretty much all the rankings except I may move CA-10 to tossup or at least tossup/tilt Republican. Denham still hasn't released an internal poll countering the one hernandez released showing him ahead.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 08:46:19 AM PDT

  •  That was most enlightening (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Looks like a great amount of effort was made on your part to deliniate all of the California races. Well done!

  •  i think this cycle is going to be really good (9+ / 0-)

    for CA dems, up and down the ballot.

    as an aside, looking at those maps, it becomes really evident how blue the central valley is. people like to say that inland CA is deep red, but look at the maps, people! it's the foothills and mountains, not the valley, that republicans still rule unchallenged. by the end of the next decade, most of it will be safe D.

  •  Mostly agreed in SoCal... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    With the possible exception of CA-26. I pretty much consider that race a Tossup/Tilt D now just because it's a Presidential year, Julia Brownley is running stronger than earlier expected, and Tony Strickland is just too "TEA" flavored for Ventura County (especially outside Simi Valley!). While Ventura voters can and do ticket split, they won't do it for a teabagger. And especially since CA-26 has a higher Dem floor than CA-52 in San Diego, I sense both seats will flip Blue this fall.

    •  I see Brownley winning (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY, madhaus, bumiputera

      Ventura does ticket split, especially in the Thousand Oaks area but she should do just fine in Oxnard and Buenaventura. She also is focusing on socially moderate and socially liberal suburban women which is a crucial swing vote. Also, as people see how Strickland is very conservative, they should head to Brownley.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:28:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm in CA-03 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming, lordpet8, kaliope, MichaelNY

    On a wart of half of Lake County stuck on the west side of the new district. We used to be part og the old CA-1 North coast district -- a much better fit for us.

    Haven't seen nor heard of Kim Vann, the republican. But when I drove to the Sacramento airport to pick up my wife, I saw tons of her signs on Yolo County farms, her home base. No signs in towns, though.

    She's a beginner and it shows. Garamendi has been out where I live (three hour drive from Walnut Creek) a couple of times. He spoke to our Democratic club.

    Vann touts boilerplate GOP nonsense platitudes, such as "freedom, hard work, and common sense." Lower taxes and fewer regulations, etc., etc. She's toast. Only the big landowning farmers have an interest in that kind of stuff around this district.

    "Societies strain harder and harder to sustain the decadent opulence of the ruling class, even as it destroys the foundations of productivity and wealth." — Chris Hedges

    by Crider on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 11:20:37 AM PDT

    •  As an illustration, (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, wu ming, kaliope, MichaelNY

      Garamendi is not shirking the big farmer vote. He's touting his stance against the new peripheral canal, while accusing Vann of supporting it.

      Meanwhile, Vann is on the run, getting mired in stupid sideshows.

      "Societies strain harder and harder to sustain the decadent opulence of the ruling class, even as it destroys the foundations of productivity and wealth." — Chris Hedges

      by Crider on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 11:30:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Her home base is Colusa County (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Crider, MichaelNY

      She is/was a Colusa County Supervisor. But you are right - Yolo is pretty well plastered with Vann signs, in places where Thompson signs used to be posted when we were part of old CD-01. Garamendi has targeted Woodland (where I live) for major GOTV efforts because we have a lot of low propensity Dem voters. I think Garamendi will win but there could be some damage on % with the Chamber of Commerce ad buy against him (almost $500K). I'm not as sure as the author about McNerney - I hope s/he is right.

      “Parties do not lead revolutions. They follow them. And then only when forced to.” Joe Bageant

      by tgypsy on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 11:33:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  vann's base is up in yuba/marysville (6+ / 0-)

      the big yolo signs don't represent very many votes. garamendi will walk away with yolo, outside of a few thinly populated rural areas in the north part of the county, and some conservative precincts in woodland.

      garamendi's going to be a great rep for the 3rd, mike thompson wasn't all that interested in ag if you weren't running a winery, and garamendi's a lion for the delta.

    •  Vann is a nut (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kaliope

      She's a Tea Party crazy.  'Nuff said.

    •  Signs on farms (0+ / 0-)

      If you can remember the recall election in Wisconsin, one of the features was the "Stand with Scott Walker" signs all over the rural areas.  It turned out he paid each landowner to display the sign.

      $10,000 bet says Vann (or what's left of the state party) is doing the same thing, and that's why there's always so many signs for the Republicans when you see empty farmland.

      In capitalist America, bank robs you!

      by madhaus on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:22:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Excellent analysis! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Alibguy, fhcec, MichaelNY

    Thanks especially for the 2/3 majority statistics.  We only have to win ONE of the contested seats in the State Senate and Prop 13 is finally history!

    -7.75, -8.10; All it takes is security in your own civil rights to make you complacent, and we are all Wisconsin.

    by Dave in Northridge on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 11:42:57 AM PDT

  •  My Republican aunt lives in SD-15. (4+ / 0-)

    That just makes me happy that she will have no Republican to vote for!!

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.00, -3.54, I finally get a chance to do something my parents have done for years- vote against Tommy Thompson!!!! Tammy Baldwin for US Senate!!!!!

    by WisJohn on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 11:55:18 AM PDT

  •  ? (0+ / 0-)

    You have Ca. 46 as safe Dem.. Isn't the Crazy Dana Rorabachers seat? He ain't goin nowhere.

  •  wow..!!..thank you for this. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trotskyrepublican, MichaelNY


    We are not broke, we are being robbed.

    by Glen The Plumber on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 03:53:42 PM PDT

  •  Great job! It makes me wish I lived in a more (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    competitive district, though.

    "I cannot live without books" -- Thomas Jefferson, 1815

    by Susan Grigsby on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 03:53:50 PM PDT

  •  CA-49 Safe GOP?! You have got to be kidding me (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kaliope

    If you pay close attention to Jerry Tetalman's Congressional campaign in the 49th Congressional District in California, you'll find it is not Safe GOP as we think it is.  Granted it's also not Lean Democrat either, it's still a race that should be paid attention to.

    Tetalman is also someone we really should support and I can't for the life of me understand why he's not getting enough attention on Daily Kos, let alone Democracy for America.  He's a frickin damn good progressive Democrat, has been active in progressive causes long before most Democrats running for Congress and has even written a book titled "One World Democracy" that has been shown to Desmond Tutu of all people!

    Hey, I'm not going to be disappointed if Tetalman looses this November.  I'll work to get a draft for Jerry Tetalman to run in 2014.  He's a man that MUST be elected in Congress.

    You can check out my diary page explaining Jerry Tetalman in detail:

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    •  and that's why he won't win (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Darrell Issa's district is an R+ district; it won't elect a "Some Dude" progressive.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:21:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  CA49 (7+ / 0-)

        In Issa's old district in 2008, the Dems improved from 34% of the 2-party vote in the primary to 39% in the general. In 2012, they got 33% of the 2-party vote in the primary. Based on that, Tetalman projects to get about 38% in the general.

        Compare this to CA45. In Campbell's old district, Dems got 31% of the primary vote in 2008 but zoomed up to 42% in the general. In 2012 they got 33% in the primary so based on that alone, Kang's baseline would probably be around 44%. Given that he actually has some $ and a background as the mayor of the district's largest city, he's probably in the 45-47% range which is enough to make that race potentially interesting.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:35:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, that's why I'm supporting Tetalman (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, kaliope

          If he doesn't win in November, no big deal.  I'll push for a draft to get him to run in 2014.

        •  It's a little disingenuous to say (0+ / 0-)

          that the 2008 primary to general results will be equal to the 2012 primary to general results.

          The only competitive race in the primary was who the second slot challenger would be for the senate race, and the GOP presidential primary.  I have a feeling the 2012 primary electorate was quite a bit more conservative than the 2008 primary electorate.

          Also, Campbell only received 51% in the primary.

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

          by Daman09 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:33:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  uncertainty (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, wu ming

            We don't know whether the primary-general gap will be bigger or smaller under the new lines. It could go either way. 2012 is not shaping up to be the sort of blue wave at the congressional level that 2008 was, although there seems to be a mini-wave building in CA so that could also go either way. I think the 2008 primary-general gap is still a good first approximation to use as a starting point.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 03:30:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  R+ what ever (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kaliope

        That's just a Washington insider/DCCC perspective.  I've been studying the Jerry Tetalman campaign since beginning of last week and they will argue it's not.

        •  no, it's not just Washington insider perspective (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY, bumiputera

          it shows how many ticket splitters Tetalman would need in a tied national election.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 05:13:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Tetalman doesn't have an easy task but.... (0+ / 0-)

            The campaign itself doesn't have as difficult of a job as say someone who wanted to unseat John Boehner in his own turf.  The district Boehner represents in Ohio is so red, no one Democrat has represented it in over 50 years!

            The problem is, these labels categorize districts without offering detailed insight into the constituency.

            Jerry Tetalman has lived in the 49th Congressional District of California for a long time.  He also has Ohio roots.  For someone like Tetalman, a REAL progressive, to be able to run in Darrell Issa's own turf says a lot of the potential, whether Tetalman wins in 2012 or in 2014 (if he runs again).

            Besides, you want to know where it's really difficult to be a progressive Democrat, let alone at Democrat at all?  Try Oklahoma, one of the reddest states in the country.  If Jerry Tetalman ran anywhere there, he'd have no chance at all!

    •  I won't disagree with you on Tetalman's merits (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, fhcec, kaliope, MichaelNY

      I will on his chances. First, look at the primary result: 61% Issa, 31% Tetalman. Someone show me how Issa can drop by 12 points short of him being caught with an underage boy in bed.

      Second, Tetalman has no money. I mean, I don't expect monster fundraising, but at least break $100K. Money isn't everything, but you can't do things without money

      I mean, by all means get Tetalman to run in two or four years. He should use this opportunity to get his name out, set up a strong framework, and build on it for future cycles. His district is going blue, and UCSD is a strong base for Democratic support. This year, however, isn't going to go his way.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 05:17:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't want to say something that makes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        his campaign look bad, but I was talking with his campaign manager maybe a few months ago, I seemed to know more about the district then he did (I specifically asked him if the campaign would attempt to utilize the UCSD population, dude didn't even know UCSD was in the district, but to be fair, it's only half the campus, which is kind of bullshit.)

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

        by Daman09 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:40:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Here's Tetalman speaking at a primary debate (0+ / 0-)

          Back in May 3, 2012, he talks about the district and its demographics.  Look closely at the 1:07 mark at in the video (that's 1 minute, 7 seconds into it).  Tetalman talks about the increase of Democrats and Independents.  I won't make the argument that this is a toss-up but by all means, it ain't red as in the South red or Oklahoma red.

          As far as the campaign manager is concerned, you know what, what Jerry Tetalman gets is what he gets.  Sometimes this is the nature of being a big underdog in the race.  If you get little support nationally, you might be hard pressed to find support locally.  On the other hand, Tetalman has been endorsed by the California Democratic Party, all 49th District Democratic clubs and even Francine Busby.  Yes, that's right, the same Francine Busby who ran against Rep. Brian Bilbray in his district more than once and as a result, the district is now becoming seriously competitive this election cycle.

      •  This is why 2012 isn't the end (0+ / 0-)

        Honestly, I'd rather Jerry Tetalman make a run for office and give it a go and fire up the base.  If you really want an example of a candidate who ran for office as a Democrat and ate a considerable chuck of the vote in a red state, just ask Pete Ashdown.  He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006 against Orrin Hatch with NO money, not even as much money as Jerry Tetalman.  However, he did get over 30% of the vote against Hatch, who had a much larger war chest.  Ashdown ran again in 2012 but lost in the primary due to his Utah Democratic Convention speech.

        I mean, the example I'm citing is of a Democrat who ran in Utah, one of the reddest states in the frickin country!  Utah's red districts make California's 49th Congressional District look like the Bay Area.  And my mom grew up in Ogden, UT so I know the demographics in UT.

    •  I live in the new 49th (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and as much as I would hate to have to deal with Issa as my rep, I don't really see a path to victory.  He has no money, and while he may receive a higher share of the vote than he should due to Issa's assholeish persona, I doubt he gets very close to winning.  If Tetalman has a good showing in the general though, we could actually get a candiate better than a some dude in 2014.

      Then again, somedudes sometimes win, so you never know, don't bet any money though.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

      by Daman09 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:36:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Never bet on money. Never (0+ / 0-)

        Jerry Tetalman has a lot of bold, visionary ideas.  Out of any of the candidates I've seen run in the California 49th Congressional District in the Democratic party, Tetalman is probably the best one.  He's also very progressive and would do a great deal to advance the cause.  I don't know if the 49th District could produce a better candidate, to be quite honest.

        •  Methinks you are boosting way too hard (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701

          Write a diary, if you haven't already. Much respect to you for your enthusiasm, but this is a diary about who actually has a chance to win elections, and he clearly has just about no chance this time.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 05:48:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Very good analysis of all three levels (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY, madhaus, bumiputera

    Your analysis of Congressional District 21 is dead on in my opinion. You are about the only person who has recognized the fact that the Salas-Rios campaign is going to have a coat-tail effect.
    A couple points: 1) Re:AD-32, Salas is buying Television ads in both English and Spanish. Also, Salas is better positioned to get free media. He is a Bakersfield city councilman whereas Rios is city councilman in Delano.
    2) As of yesterday (9/30) someone is robo-polling the CD-21 race.

    Terry Phillips for Congress in 23rd District of California.

    by hankmeister on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:14:15 PM PDT

  •  Very helpful (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    The CA districts have tending to confuse me somewhat.

  •  Amazing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Wonderful work. Thank you.

  •  Isn't the info on CD-09 incorrect? (0+ / 0-)

    Berkeley, Oakland? Barbara Lee?

    My knowledge is pretty much limited to Colbert's Better Know a District, so I'm likely wrong....

    "There is just one way to save yourself, and that's to get together and work and fight for everybody." ---Woody Guthrie (quoted by Jim Hightower in The Progressive Populist April 1, 2012, p3)

    by CitizenJoe on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:50:20 PM PDT

    •  CD-09 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kaliope, MichaelNY

      Was changed after the redistricting commission moved all the district numbers around. CD-09 is now for Jerry McNerney and Barbara Lee is in the 13th district.

      They renumbered my district too. I used to be in CD-06 but now it's CD-02.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

      by Alibguy on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 04:58:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McNerney race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, laurak

    Rep. Jerry McNerney

    Here's a shot I took of Rep. Jerry McNerney -- one of Congress's best members -- 8 days ago ... He's been redistricted into CA-9 and, while you rate this Likely Democratic, he's facing an onslaught of $2.5 million in super PAC negative advertising in the Sacramento TV market over the next 5 weeks. He told me he's concerned when he's being outspent 5 or 10 to 1.

    I hope we're able to level the playing field a bit.

  •  great diary thanks n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Today the United States of America is less dependent on foreign oil than at any time in the last two decades. Now you’ve got a choice we could reverse this progress like Governor Romney wants to do. ~ Pres. Obama

    by anyname on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 12:59:26 AM PDT

  •  Terrific diary, thank you so much (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm living in a bunch of Safe D districts (17/13/24).  Our CD not only got renumbered, they took Sunnyvale and stuck us with Santa Clara and Milpitas.  That's going to be a real pain in dealing with Moffett Naval Air Station issues, since it is primarily in Mountain View but some of the land is in Sunnyvale.  My old district was CA-14 and most of it went to CA-18, but we're now in 17.

    In capitalist America, bank robs you!

    by madhaus on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:34:07 AM PDT

  •  what about Senate district 21? (0+ / 0-)

    the party registration in that district is almost even.  Do democrats have no chance there at all?

    •  There's potential in future cycles (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wu ming

      Not this time though, for three reasons. One is the star GOP candidate, current assemblyman Steve Knight. He's from a prominent political family in the Antelope Valley, so he's going to be hard to beat.

      Second is the Some Dude Democratic candidate, Star Moffatt, who didn't even raise enough money to file a campaign finance report. He was also a Republican until two years ago when he reregistered as a Democrat.

      Third is volatile Democratic turnout. Many Democrats here are recent transplants from the LA area and are African American or Latino. There's also no visible Democratic structure here, so GOTV and other organizational efforts are going to be difficult.

      I have a feeling that the state party is concentrating on the low-hanging fruit first (Central Valley, Inland Empire, Ventura, San Diego) before pivoting to here. They have to knock off Buck McKeon sooner or later.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 11:30:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another day (0+ / 0-)

    Another diary that doesn't analyze the dynamics of CA-45...

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 02:24:20 PM PDT

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