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12:16 PM PT: MO-, NV-Sen, NM-Sen: We Ask America, the robopolling arm of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers' Association, is out with a bunch of new polls in various swing(-ish) states. In Missouri, they show Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill edging Todd Akin 46-45, while in Nevada, GOP Sen. Dean Heller and Shelley Berkley are tied at 45 apiece. Their New Mexico numbers (like everyone else's) are much wider, with Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich beating Heather Wilson 52-41.

1:07 PM PT: WI-08: It's not clear to me why we're only seeing this Normington Petts internal from Democrat Jamie Wall now: The memo is dated Sept. 20, and it seems that The Hill even gave it a quick mention last week. But perhaps the Wall campaign didn't publicize it very well the first time, because local tipsheet WisPolitics only posted the poll on Monday. Anyway, the toplines aren't all that terrific for Wall, who is trying to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Reid Ribble: He trails 47-41. The good news, such as it is, comes in the trendlines, because in an unreleased June poll, Ribble had a much wider 48-33 lead. But while Wall is inevitably catching up, Ribble remains within striking distance of the 50% mark. (And even though this poll is already a touch dusty, it doesn't seem that he's bothered to respond to it.)

Part of the difficulty for Wall may lie in Wisconsin's closeness at the presidential level, compared to four years ago. While Obama won this district by nine points in 2008, he's actually trailing 47-46 in this survey, a pretty sizable swing to the south. That, however, is actually an improvement from that earlier June survey, when Romney led 49-44. But the person who's surged the most is Dem Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who is now pounding Tommy Thompson 50-42—up all the from a 52-36 deficit. I don't know that a lot of people expected Baldwin to out-perform the POTUS in the Badger State, but it sure has been a weird election cycle here.

1:18 PM PT: WI-Sen: It's hard not to view this as just plain sad: Paul Ryan is taking a break from the (vice-)presidential campaign trail to headline a fundraiser for Tommy Thompson back home in Wisconsin. I'm sure it'll bring in plenty of money for Tommy, but the salient point is that he's so desperate for help. Here's a good question, though: Who's more likely to win, Romney-Ryan or Tommy Thompson?

1:39 PM PT: NJ-Sen: Well, this sure is odd: Majority PAC, the biggest outside spender in Senate races on behalf of Democrats other than the DSCC, is chipping in $150K on "voter outreach and printing" for... New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez. Devoted election watchers know that the Garden State has long been fool's gold for Republicans, who haven't won a Senate race here since 1972. Most cycles, though, it seems like Jersey Senate contests get juuust close enough to convince the GOP to play here, but that really hasn't felt like the case this time. (Just check out the polling.) So is this expenditure just a display of excessive caution? Or could Majority PAC be trolling Republicans, hoping they make the mistake of diverting resources to state Sen. Joe Kyrillos in a desperation move? Keep an eye on this one just in case.

2:13 PM PT: NH-Gov: UNH has always been one of my least-favorite pollsters, and here's a good example why: On Monday, they released new numbers showing Barack Obama with an absurd 15-point lead in New Hampshire. Now they're out with the gubernatorial portion of the same poll... and they find Democrat Maggie Hassan up just 42-40 over Republican Ovide Lamontagne. I'm not even going to bother trying to figure out how they could come up with such bizarrely divergent results.

2:19 PM PT: CA-31: As we expected, the Realtors are back to finish the job for GOP Rep. Gary Miller. After spending three-quarters of a million to help him finish in the top two in June's primary, the National Association of Realtors have now thrown down another $360K on his behalf for the general. Due to a massive failure on the part of Democrats, Miller faces a fellow Republican, state Sen. Bob Dutton, even though this district went 56-41 for Obama.

2:24 PM PT: GA-12: In recent years, the NRA has endorsed tons of Democrats (mostly to cement their hold on both parties), so it's not really against-type for them to back Dem Rep. John Barrow in his uphill re-election battle. The real question is whether they'll actually lift a finger to help him, or if they're content with just shooting out a press release. (And if you want to feel particularly good about this one, note that they specifically cite Barrow's vote in favor of holding Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress as a reason they're supporting him.)

3:59 PM PT: HMP: House Majority PAC is out with new ads targeting Republicans in half a dozen districts: AZ-02, FL-10, IA-01, IL-17, MI-01, and MN-08. (SEIU is partnering in Florida and Minnesota.) The total buy across all six seats is $1.2 million, and you can find all of the ads at the link.

4:03 PM PT: 3Q Fundraising:

NC-Gov: Pat McCrory (R): $3.1 mil raised, $2.3 mil cash-on-hand.

FL-18: Rep. Allen West's absurd burn rate continues. Though he raised an absurd $4 million in the third quarter, he finished with "only" $3 million in the bank. Seeing as he had $3.7 mil on hand at the end of 2Q, that means he spent more than he took in (almost $5 million!)—and almost certainly the bulk of that went to expensive direct-mail fundraising. Still, $3 mil in cash for the stretch run is quite a lot.

4:10 PM PT: Ads:

AZ-Sen: Club for Growth (R)
FL-Sen: American Crossroads (R)
HI-Sen: Mazie Hirono (D)
IN-Sen: Club for Growth (R)
IN-Sen: NRSC (R)
MT-Sen: Crossroads GPS (R)
ND-Sen: Crossroads GPS (R)
NM-Sen: Heather Wilson (R)
NV-Sen: Dean Heller (R)
OH-Sen: Josh Mandel (R)
VA-Sen: Crossroads GPS (R)
WI-Sen: SEIU (D)
WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D)
WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D)

4:13 PM PT: Ads:

MO-Gov: Dave Spence (R)
MT-Gov: RGA (R)
MT-Gov: Steven Daines (R)
WA-Gov: RGA (R)
WV-Gov: Earl Ray Tomblin (D)

4:14 PM PT: Ads:

AZ-09: DCCC (D)
CA-07: DCCC (D)
CA-10: DCCC (D)
CA-30: Brad Sherman (D)
CA-30: Brad Sherman (D)
CA-30: Brad Sherman (D)
CA-36: DCCC (D)
CA-52: DCCC (D)
CA-52: DCCC (D)
CT-05: DCCC (D)
FL-10: SEIU (D)
FL-22: Lois Frankel (D)
IA-01: Ben Lange (R)
IA-04: Steve King (R)
IL-10: DCCC (D)
IL-11: Bill Foster (D)
IL-11: DCCC (D)
IL-13: DCCC (D)
IL-17: DCCC (D)
MA-06: Richard Tisei (R)
MT-AL: Kim Gillan (D)
NC-07: DCCC (D)
NC-11: Hayden Rogers (D)
NC-11: Hayden Rogers (D)
NH-01: DCCC (D)
NH-02: DCCC (D)
NV-03: DCCC (D)
NV-03: John Oceguera (D)
NY-11: Mark Murphy (D)
NY-21: DCCC (D)
OH-06: DCCC (D)
OH-06: DCCC (D)
TX-23: Pete Gallego (D)
TX-23: Pete Gallego (D)
WA-01: DCCC (D)
WI-07: Sean Duffy (R)

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