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8:29 AM PT: • FL-Sen (SurveyUSA): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (47), Connie Mack (R): 40 (36); Obama 47-46 (48-44).
• FL-Sen (Rasmussen): Bill Nelson (D-inc): 48 (46), Connie Mack (R): 46 (45); Romney 51-46 (51-47).
8:35 AM PT: • MO-Sen (PPP): Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (46), Todd Akin (R): 40 (40); Jonathan Dine (L): 6 (9); Romney 52-46 (51-45).
• NJ-Sen (Stockton): Bob Menendez (D-inc): 52, Joe Kyrillos (R): 30; Obama 53-38.
• NJ-Sen (SurveyUSA): Bob Menendez (D-inc): 53, Joe Kyrillos (R): 33; Obama 54-40.
8:45 AM PT: • OH-Sen (PPP): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (49), Josh Mandel (R): 44 (42); Obama 49-48 (51-46).
• OH-Sen (Quinnipiac): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 51 (50), Josh Mandel (R): 42 (40); Obama 50-45 (53-43).
• OH-Sen (Rasmussen): Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (47), Josh Mandel (R): 44 (46); Obama 49-48 (48-47).
9:14 AM PT: • PA-Sen (Muhlenberg): Bob Casey (D-inc): 45 (41), Tom Smith (R): 37 (39); Obama 50-45 (49-45).
• VA-Sen (Rasmussen): Tim Kaine (D): 49 (48), George Allen (R): 48 (47); Romney 50-47 (49-47).
• VA-Sen (Wenzel for CU): "Timothy" Kaine (D): 49, George Allen (R): 46 ; Romney 49-47.
• WI-Sen (Rasmussen): Tammy Baldwin (D): 46 (51), Tommy Thompson (R): 48 (47); Obama 50-48 (51-49).
9:40 AM PT: ND-Sen: Over the weekend, you might have seen the Fargo Forum's new poll of the North Dakota Senate race from Essman/Research—the one which has GOP Rep. Rick Berg up by a very surprising 50-40 margin. This one deserves special attention, because this race has long been a tossup in all other polling. The most obvious point, which doesn't even touch on any possible flaws in the survey, is that if Berg himself had numbers showing him up 10 points, he'd be screaming them from the rooftops. But he doesn't, so he hasn't. That pretty much tells you all you need to know.
But Essman also has a bad track record polling this race. Back in May, they released a survey that purported to put Berg up 51-44 in the general election—but using a June primary likely voter model. Since there only primaries in ND this year were on the Republican side, that created a manifestly distorted poll—one that should never have been conducted in the first place.
As for Essman's latest poll, if you dig down into the crosstabs, you'll also spot this alarming notice: "Although the polling was conducted through random digit dialing, the poll skewed toward Independents and Republicans." It's probably not a good thing when a pollster puts out a warning that he thinks his own poll is "skewed." (For what it's worth, the D-R-I breakdown here was 19-35-42, versus 28-38-33 in 2008.) And the Heitkamp campaign has also responded with its own internal from the Mellman Group, showing her up 45-42. I'm definitely much more inclined to believe Mark Mellman (who also doesn't have an awkward slash in the middle of his name) than Essman/Research.
9:51 AM PT: MO-Gov: PPP's last gubernatorial poll of Missouri seemed a bit gaudy for Dem Gov. Jay Nixon, giving him a whopping 54-35 lead. Nixon's still well ahead in PPP's latest, but things have tightened, and now he's ahead of Republican businessman Dave Spence 51-40. The LG race has tightened, with Democrat Susan Montee pulling into a 43-43 tie with incumbent Peter Kinder, versus a 42-38 Kinder lead in early October. However, the AG battle has gone in the same direction as the governor's contest, with Dem incumbent Chris Koster's 52-34 advantage over Ed Martin slipping to 48-38.
9:57 AM PT: OH Ballot: As ever, the numbers for Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission look bad. PPP finds the measure failing by a 48-35 margin, which represents a drop from 44-37 opposed mid-month.
10:36 AM PT: CA-21: I can't say I was expecting this—in fact, I said I wasn't expecting this! Democrat John Hernandez, in the running for one of the unlikeliest stories of the entire election cycle, has indeed responded to Republican David Valadao's poll with one of his own. Hernandez's internal, from FM3, has him trailing just 41-37, a far cry from the 53-33 margin Valadao trumpeted last week. Unlike Valadao's survey, Hernandez's includes presidential toplines: Obama leads 50-39, which is a fair bit wider than his 52-46 mark in 2008, but it's not impossible to believe given the trends in the Latino vote. But also ask yourself this: Would Crossroads GPS be spending $600K here if they thought Valadao was a lock?
10:56 AM PT: IL-11 (GHY for HMP): Bill Foster (D): 49, Judy Biggert (R-inc): 45; Obama 51-46. Note: Obama won this district 61-37 four years ago. That the president is underperforming his 2008 numbers in his home state is nothing new; that he's fallen off this badly—19 points—is news.
11:04 AM PT: IL-17 (GBA for Bustos): Cheri Bustos (D): 49 (45), Bobby Schilling (R-inc): 45 (47); Obama 53-41 (54-41).
11:09 AM PT: MN-06, MN-08: The Minneapolis Star-Tribune commissioned two new House polls, both from Pulse Opinion Research, unfortunately—the for-hire arm of Rasmussen Reports. In the 6th, they have GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann leading Democrat Jim Graves 51-45, while Romney edges Obama 54-39, a little better than John McCain's 55-43 mark four years ago. Meanwhile, in the 8th, Democrat Rick Nolan is beating GOP Rep. Chip Cravaack 50-43. Obama's up just 47-46, compared to his 53-45 victory in 2008, so either this sample is actually unfavorable to Nolan, or Obama's fortunes have seriously soured here.
11:18 AM PT: CA-26/36/41/47/52: Big Dog Alert! Earlier this month, Bill Clinton did a swing through northern California to endorse a whole bunch of Democrats in competitive races; on Tuesday, he'll do the same in SoCal. The explainer-in-chief will appear at a rally at the University of California Irvine's Bren Events Center at 5pm, along with Julia Brownley, Raul Ruiz, Mark Takano, Alan Lowenthal, and Scott Peters.
11:22 AM PT: MO-Sen: Ah, real nice:
"She goes to Washington, D.C., it's a little bit like one of those dogs, you know 'fetch,'" Akin said. "She goes to Washington, D.C., and get all of these taxes and red tape and bureaucracy and executive orders and agencies and she brings all of this stuff and dumps it on us in Missouri."
Akin's spokesman, clearly pleased with himself for such cleverness, then offered this follow-up:
11:42 AM PT: FL-Gov: Florida Democratic Party chair Rod Smith, a former state senator and prosecutor whose name had often come up as a possible gubernatorial candidate, says he won't run in 2014, citing his 25-year-old son's battle with cancer. The Tampa Bay Times channels the Great Mentioner and offers these names as potential challengers to GOP Gov. Rick Scott: 2010 nominee Alex Sink, state Sen. Nan Rich, Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Jimmy Morales, and former Gov. Charlie Crist (who still hasn't formally joined the Democratic Party).
11:44 AM PT: IL-02: Dem Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. is returning to the Mayo Clinic to undergo further treatment for bipolar disorder, according to his father, Rev. Jesse Jackson.
12:03 PM PT: IA-04: Republican Rep. Steve King doesn't know a lot of things, it seems. From a new interview over the weekend:
In a follow-up question, Bachman asked King whether he believed the conspiracy theories himself, that President Obama would have been born, not in Hawaii, but in Kenya.
"I don't know where he was born, but I don't see the indication that he was born anywhere else. And I've said that consistently."
12:07 PM PT: The Live Digest continues here.