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Below you will find my projections for the November 6th election for all 135 Virginia localities.   This is based on current polling averages vs. historical outcomes and trends, but unlike the polling it is based on this model looks at voter registrations and where they are centered.  See this diary for why the polls might be understating Obama's advantage slightly.

Currently, I am projecting:

4,065,467 votes on November 6th in Virginia
2,081,138 votes for Barack Obama, or 51.19%.
1,917,599 votes for Mitt Romney, or 47.17%
And third party candidates receiving 1.64% of the vote.

Absentee data seems to be closely mirroring 2008.  As more polling and other data comes in, I will use it to update this model.  All data is below the fold and I have included 2008 Obama margins so you can compare and contrast.   If you are familiar with any of these localities and think my projection is off, please let me know as I'd like to refine this as we get closer to election day.  I will update the projection as we go.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              
COUNTY/CITY Obama2012 Romney2012 Margin12 Margin08
ACCOMACK
  COUNTY
7832 8554 -722 -226
ALBEMARLE
  COUNTY
33063 23862 9200 9216
ALEXANDRIA
  CITY
55293 22015 33278 31292
ALLEGHANY
  COUNTY
3403 3829 -425 -162
AMELIA
  COUNTY
2596 4382 -1786 -1482
AMHERST
  COUNTY
6253 9225 -2971 -2376
APPOMATTOX
  COUNTY
2722 5359 -2637 -2262
ARLINGTON
  COUNTY
90460 35531 54929 49118
AUGUSTA
  COUNTY
10166 25348 -15182 -13295
BATH
  COUNTY
974 1362 -388 -306
BEDFORD
  CITY
1187 1575 -388 -289
BEDFORD
  COUNTY
11449 26867 -15418 -13403
BLAND
  COUNTY
857 2152 -1296 -1167
BOTETOURT
  COUNTY
5652 12166 -6514 -5778
BRISTOL
  CITY
2680 4907 -2227 -1914
BRUNSWICK
  COUNTY
4810 2988 1822 2096
BUCHANAN
  COUNTY
3831 4621 -790 -478
BUCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
3575 3729 -154 61
BUENA
  VISTA CITY
1218 1475 -257 -174
CAMPBELL
  COUNTY
8181 18775 -10594 -9353
CAROLINE
  COUNTY
7659 6323 1336 1546
CARROLL
  COUNTY
4105 8727 -4622 -4078
CHARLES
  CITY COUNTY
2761 1344 1417 1550
CHARLOTTE
  COUNTY
2512 3390 -878 -667
CHARLOTTESVILLE
  CITY
18629 4989 13640 11627
CHESAPEAKE
  CITY
55055 57022 -1968 1369
CHESTERFIELD
  COUNTY
78892 96715 -17823 -12103
CLARKE
  COUNTY
3645 4274 -629 -383
COLONIAL
  HEIGHTS CITY
2475 6392 -3918 -3599
COVINGTON
  CITY
1281 1073 208 284
CRAIG
  COUNTY
872 1800 -928 -818
CULPEPER
  COUNTY
9511 12158 -2648 -1909
CUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
2250 2575 -325 -163
DANVILLE
  CITY
11741 8564 3177 3991
DICKENSON
  COUNTY
3029 3328 -299 -46
DINWIDDIE
  COUNTY
6434 7129 -695 -280
EMPORIA
  CITY
1725 967 758 805
ESSEX
  COUNTY
3112 2661 451 555
FAIRFAX
  CITY
6344 4863 1481 1884
FAIRFAX
  COUNTY
327249 223725 103524 109365
FALLS
  CHURCH CITY
5248 2298 2950 2725
FAUQUIER
  COUNTY
15432 21424 -5992 -4611
FLOYD
  COUNTY
2925 4722 -1797 -1504
FLUVANNA
  COUNTY
6196 6859 -663 -235
FRANKLIN
  CITY
2681 1615 1066 1243
FRANKLIN
  COUNTY
9968 16922 -6954 -5796
FREDERICK
  COUNTY
14595 23642 -9047 -7188
FREDERICKSBURG
  CITY
8121 4548 3573 2742
GALAX CITY 987 1335 -348 -265
GILES
  COUNTY
3125 4679 -1555 -1270
GLOUCESTER
  COUNTY
7038 13078 -6040 -5173
GOOCHLAND
  COUNTY
4978 8377 -3399 -2830
GRAYSON
  COUNTY
2384 4692 -2308 -2060
GREENE
  COUNTY
3574 5843 -2269 -1806
GREENSVILLE
  COUNTY
3021 1797 1225 1393
HALIFAX
  COUNTY
8125 9174 -1048 -474
HAMPTON
  CITY
48794 22542 26252 26441
HANOVER
  COUNTY
18992 40780 -21787 -18897
HARRISONBURG
  CITY
9814 7279 2535 2396
HENRICO
  COUNTY
91537 75342 16195 18942
HENRY
  COUNTY
10490 14009 -3519 -2640
HIGHLAND
  COUNTY
490 854 -365 -340
HOPEWELL
  CITY
5199 4368 831 1136
ISLE OF
  WIGHT COUNTY
8972 12456 -3484 -2685
JAMES CITY
  COUNTY
18954 23945 -4992 -3560
KING &
  QUEEN COUNTY
1887 1856 31 155
KING
  GEORGE COUNTY
5089 6966 -1877 -1415
KING
  WILLIAM COUNTY
3513 5511 -1998 -1622
LANCASTER
  COUNTY
3027 3689 -662 -412
LEE COUNTY 3120 6060 -2940 -2606
LEXINGTON
  CITY
1930 1167 763 629
LOUDOUN
  COUNTY
90691 78819 11873 11509
LOUISA
  COUNTY
7449 9198 -1749 -1204
LUNENBURG
  COUNTY
2581 2982 -400 -197
LYNCHBURG
  CITY
19174 21466 -2292 -1369
MADISON
  COUNTY
2823 3965 -1142 -896
MANASSAS
  CITY
8570 7080 1490 1543
MANASSAS
  PARK CITY
2915 1995 919 829
MARTINSVILLE
  CITY
3873 2337 1535 1828
MATHEWS
  COUNTY
1854 3564 -1710 -1522
MECKLENBURG
  COUNTY
7195 8403 -1208 -690
MIDDLESEX
  COUNTY
2288 3651 -1363 -1154
MONTGOMERY
  COUNTY
23418 22126 1291 2003
NELSON
  COUNTY
4286 3816 470 744
NEW KENT
  COUNTY
3878 7407 -3529 -2892
NEWPORT
  NEWS CITY
52239 30708 21532 23305
NORFOLK
  CITY
63432 26678 36754 38005
NORTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
3605 2774 830 1087
NORTHUMBERLAND
  COUNTY
3246 4242 -996 -729
NORTON
  CITY
753 802 -49 -1
NOTTOWAY
  COUNTY
3248 3587 -339 -86
ORANGE
  COUNTY
7371 9344 -1972 -1399
PAGE
  COUNTY
4098 6277 -2179 -1806
PATRICK
  COUNTY
2837 5788 -2952 -2612
PETERSBURG
  CITY
14485 1758 12726 12191
PITTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
11414 19980 -8566 -7315
POQUOSON
  CITY
1709 5478 -3769 -3481
PORTSMOUTH
  CITY
32320 14915 17404 18343
POWHATAN
  COUNTY
4478 11249 -6771 -5851
PRINCE
  EDWARD COUNTY
5341 4620 721 927
PRINCE
  GEORGE COUNTY
7425 9645 -2220 -1622
PRINCE
  WILLIAM COUNTY
111904 83367 28537 25814
PULASKI
  COUNTY
5735 9213 -3479 -2939
RADFORD
  CITY
3099 2698 401 512
RAPPAHANNOCK
  COUNTY
2069 2344 -274 -122
RICHMOND
  CITY
78395 20922 57473 54974
RICHMOND
  COUNTY
1583 2192 -610 -474
ROANOKE
  CITY
25036 16476 8560 9540
ROANOKE
  COUNTY
19659 32411 -12752 -10759
ROCKBRIDGE
  COUNTY
4416 6193 -1777 -1385
ROCKINGHAM
  COUNTY
10948 24875 -13927 -12015
RUSSELL
  COUNTY
4894 6774 -1880 -1457
SALEM CITY 5195 7598 -2403 -1924
SCOTT
  COUNTY
2596 7162 -4566 -4255
SHENANDOAH
  COUNTY
7148 13156 -6008 -5093
SMYTH
  COUNTY
4183 8251 -4068 -3578
SOUTHAMPTON
  COUNTY
4443 4926 -483 -181
SPOTSYLVANIA
  COUNTY
26969 32541 -5572 -3713
STAFFORD
  COUNTY
28747 34086 -5339 -3505
STAUNTON
  CITY
5806 5879 -73 239
SUFFOLK
  CITY
23362 18908 4454 5281
SURRY
  COUNTY
2554 1735 819 963
SUSSEX
  COUNTY
3216 2117 1100 1275
TAZEWELL
  COUNTY
5459 11714 -6255 -5605
VIRGINIA
  BEACH CITY
100736 108622 -7887 -1434
WARREN
  COUNTY
7406 9914 -2507 -1882
WASHINGTON
  COUNTY
8133 17270 -9137 -8014
WAYNESBORO
  CITY
3876 5105 -1229 -909
WESTMORELAND
  COUNTY
4673 4034 639 858
WILLIAMSBURG
  CITY
6048 3284 2764 1975
WINCHESTER
  CITY
5206 4993 213 543
WISE
  COUNTY
4943 9431 -4487 -3919
WYTHE
  COUNTY
4121 8779 -4658 -4100
YORK
  COUNTY
13901 21407 -7505 -6133
Totals 2081138 1917599 163539 234527
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Comment Preferences

  •  What do you mean by voter registration? (5+ / 0-)

    I know VA does not have party registration, so I am curious how you modeled it. I am not doubting you - I know there are ways to do it. As a data geek and a former Virginian, I am curious about your methodology.

    I agree with your underlying point - Virginia is definitely winnable. IMO, Obama is banking too much on Ohio and not putting enough effort into shoring up VA as a backup plan. Now that Nevada is looking pretty good, if he wins VA he pretty much cannot lose, as long as he holds Wisconsin and Iowa. He has been burned in Ohio before and VA is his best option for a backup plan.

    •  I look at where new voters were registered (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NotGeorgeWill

      and what the trends in those localities have been in Presidential elections from 1996 to 2008.  New voter registration have been much higher in Democratic strongholds.  If they get to the polls, I think this projection will be very close.  

      I think ironically the thing that will cost Romney at day's end is the fact that the primary in Virginia was uncontested.  Had Santorum qualified for the ballot, there would have been quite a fight here and Romney would have needed to wind up his machinery earlier.

      This is certainly not as nice as having clear Ds and Rs, so that throws some uncertainty into the projection.

      Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

      by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:52:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don get it? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Carol in San Antonio

    Why are you predicting a victory for Obama when he is down votes in every single county in early voting, and where he was up by 17000 at this time votes 4 years ago, he is down by over 70,000 right now?

    He is down across the board and I just dont get why you think these projections  are going to somehow turn around?

    Please let me know why you think so.

    •  He won by 6 points in 2008 (9+ / 0-)

      So he can win this time even if his numbers are down from 2008. I don't really care if he wins it by 0.5%, as long as he wins it.

    •  are these numbers accurate? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Twodaiquiris

      First time I've heard them.

    •  We do not have early voting in Virginia. (0+ / 0-)

      This is a projection of what I think the final vote will be on November 6th.

      Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

      by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:53:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Technically we do. (5+ / 0-)

        Early absentee voting:

        Among those eligible to vote absentee: military service members and citizens overseas, students and others out of town on Election Day, those medically unable to get to the polls, election officials or political operatives who are otherwise occupied, some emergency service personnel and people with work or religious conflicts.

        Virginia allows voters to cast in-person absentee ballots or to request that one be sent by mail or electronic means. In-person absentee applications must be made at least three days before Election Day, while mailed requests must be received by election officials one week prior. More than 506,600 Virginians voted absentee in 2008.

        Numbers as of October 19.  The site doesn't disaggregate the votes by County, but the Dem Counties noted have significantly more voters than the McCain leaning counties.  e.g. one of the top "McCain" counties, Hanover, from 2008, has one-tenth the population of Fairfax County.  So the 3 percent increase in Fairfax is starting from a high baseline and involves many more votes.

        A 100,000 vote margin in Obama's favor strike me as plausible -- this was my wild-assed guess before the debates.  And the Virginia vote total in 2008 was very close to Obama's national numbers -- 51 percent is possible, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a more narrow margin.  This go around I think the results still tilt in his favor, but it is going to be close.  It will almost certainly be a long election night, unless one of the two candidates starts breaking away from the other over the next couple weeks.

        •  Yes. I am watching this. My model says Obama (5+ / 0-)

          is winning 61% of these voters and has a 57,000 vote lead among the absentees.

          That is fairly similar to what happened last time out.  A few heavily Dem areas are running behind 2008, but that could be processing issues.

          It will definitely be a long election night.  That is why I put this data together in the first place, so I have some benchmarks.

          Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

          by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:19:06 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  not processing issues in Arlington (0+ / 0-)

            which is heavily Democratic, and in which early voting is down quite a bit

            "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

            by teacherken on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:35:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not too worried about Arlington, myself. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              FightingRegistrar, Twodaiquiris

              In 2008, we had over 30% early voting, against a 13% average statewide.   As you may recall, Ken, the lines at the County building on the Saturday before elections were hours long - and there were virtually no lines at the polling places on election day.  

              It may be that people weighing the relative risks of inconvenience adjusted their expectations this year.  I don't believe it is any indication of voter indifference in this jurisdiction.  

              It is also worth noting that the extension of registration until Oct 15 this year meant that many activists who were pushing early in-person absentee voting in 2008 from the very outset were still working on voter registration at the equivalent time this year.

              And to some effect, as it happens.  The official number of registered voters in Arlington was 163,000 as of September 30, and the last two weeks saw some of the most intense activity - so we're probably closer to 165K.   This compares favorably with the 149,000 registered voters in 2008, which makes me more hopeful that we could increase our net positive margin by the 6000 votes that the diarist's model calls for.  

              Statewide, the comparable totals for registered voters is 2008: 4,892,034 vs. 2012:   5,318,827 (also as of 9/30/12), which is certainly very good news.  

              However, he's got us penciled in for the largest single increase in margin across the state...so...guess we'd better hit some more doors this weekend.  

        •  An additional note . . . (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Twodaiquiris, FightingRegistrar

          one big problem with the VPAP numbers cited above is that they are just looking at raw averages.  They don't account for the total population.

          e.g. you could have a 26 percent increase in early absentee voting in GOP counties from a low baseline compared to 2008 with a relatively small population, while you could only have a small 8 percent increase above a high baseline from 2008 in counties that account for anywhere from 4 to 10 times the population of the GOP leaning Counties.  Without knowing the actual tallies, comparison relative to 2008, composition of the voters (e.g. new voters? or just votes moved from Nov. to earlier?), it is hard to say much about the numbers.  I'm sure that these numbers can be found somewhere, but I can't find them on the VPAP site and the SBE doesn't have clear numbers posted either.  The main take away is that there is probably more enthusiasm for the GOP nominee in 2012 than in 2008 (and/or hatred of the Dem nominee), while the Dem numbers are more muted and/or closer to the ceiling of potential absentee votes to begin with.  But beyond it is hard to say much more about early absentee voting without having more detailed information.  I'll see if I can track some numbers down.

          •  There is a raw data section on the VA SBE site (3+ / 0-)

            which has the 2008 comparisons as to where ballot requests were made from.  But yes, there should be some caution about making any big summations one way or the other based on those numbers.   Some localities are stickier with their partisan lean that others, so that is what I am looking at by comparison.

            Obama did exceptionally well with absentees here in 2008.  There is really no precedent for that performance.  He doesn't have to replicate that to win though.  So far it looks good.

            Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

            by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:31:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Could you please explain this? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Twodaiquiris

      Really doesn't make sense, given the following comments...

  •  I like the prediction. I think he is already up (4+ / 0-)

    2-3 points in VA and the margin will grow.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:48:18 PM PDT

  •  Thanks for the challange. We will do (4+ / 0-)

    better than that in Mathews County.

    An idea is not responsible for who happens to be carrying it at the moment. It stands or falls on its own merits.

    by don mikulecky on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:53:29 PM PDT

  •  seems about right (5+ / 0-)

    for Roanoke City, Roanoke County, and Montgomery (Blacksburg)- the only 3 I'm active enough in to have a feel for.

  •  I am impressed w/ your Hanover projection-- (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris, Supavash, NotGeorgeWill

    all of it, really.  If Obama gets his numbers on your projection he'll win, regardless of rmoney's numbers.

    My best guess was a reflection that did not look back, an image lost in every mirror.

    by Zacapoet on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:17:21 PM PDT

  •  Surprised at Fairfax County (3+ / 0-)

    I would have expected a bigger margin for Obama in 2012 than in 2008 due to the growth in its population, which is making it more for team D.

    •  The election is just closer, so he gets about the (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, NotGeorgeWill, pademocrat

      same margin while winning a lower percentage of the votes.  That is what I am thinking.  There could be other factors, like demographic shifts, that broaden the number above my projection.  If that is the case, Romney has very little chance of winning Virginia.

      Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

      by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:34:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am going to re-examine how much weight I give to (0+ / 0-)

      the trend toward blue based on your comment.  I think the trend in Fairfax is strong enough to buoy Obama a little more, and there may be trends toward the red team that are larger than I am giving credit for as well.

      Still waiting for Romney to release his source code!

      by Twodaiquiris on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 05:26:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just down in Orange county Saturday (3+ / 0-)

    RRomney signs everywhere.  Where I live (Alexandria suburbs) the sign wars are about 50:50.  I know signs aren't the same as polling data but I find the proliferation of RRomney signs in No. VA a bit worrisome.

    Democrats give you the Bill of Rights; Republicans sell you a bill of goods!

    by barbwires on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:35:08 PM PDT

    •  I still call a tossup. I'm heartened that Obama (4+ / 0-)

      doesn't need us to win and that if Romney does win, it will be the smallest of margins. I think this year people are happier to put out R/R signs rather than McCain/Palin due to less embarrassment with the whole Muslim/Birth certificate/Tina Fey-Palin.

      I find more Republicans actually happy to state their votes than before.

      •  Also a lot more animosity towards the president . (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Twodaiquiris, barbwires

        Still they can win the sign war, but as long as Obama wins the election, and ideally VA, I'm happy.

        Just anecdotally, this time around I don't have the Obama bumper sticker, but I have given a little more money to the campaign this election cycle and fully intend to cast a straight D ballot come November.  It may be an anomaly, but a family member in Virginia is also switching from "R" to "D" in this election cycle after having backed McCain in 2008.  

        I think the enthusiasm is a little more muted on the Dem side, but the votes are still there.  Obama probably loses some votes on tax policy, since there are a bunch of places in NoVA that will be impacted by an increase in the top tax rate.  Still, I imagine he'll win by pretty decisive margins once again.  Although it will be much closer than in 2008.

  •  Do you have a methodology for this? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris, NotGeorgeWill

    How did you simulate this? Is it stochastic? Deterministic?

  •  SWVA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris

     Thanks for doing this. However, your projections for SWVA counties are wildly optimistic. I have been going door-to-door for Anthony Flaccavento our 9th District Congressional candidate in Washington Co. and even the Democrats are not voting for Obama. We worked out butts off in this county and Bristol four years ago and were able to get a little better than 35% of the vote. We will be lucky to get 25% this time. That was what Obama got in and adjacent Tennessee county in 2008.
       What's killing us here is not just a sluggish economy but spillover on the "Obama's war against coal" propaganda deluging coal counties. In traditionally Democratic coal country, where even the UMWA is withholding its presidential endorsement, no coal county will manage more than 35% vote for Obama. Some may come in shockingly lower than traditionally Republican I-81 Corridor counties.
       You need to rethink the margin of loss for Obama coming out of the 9th!!

    •  Thanks! I am making some adjustments (0+ / 0-)

      to my model.  I have Obama at 28.5% in Washington County right now which seems in line with what you are seeing.  Do you have any insight in any other localities?

      Thanks for all your work!  Controlling the margins everywhere is the key.

      Mitt Romney supports abortion rights in the cases of rape, incest, and needin' to get elected in Massachusetts!

      by Twodaiquiris on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 01:14:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting analysis. I hope it goes this way. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris
  •  NoVA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris

    I think your predictions in NoVA (where Obama has to run up a big lead in Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax/Falls Church City) is a bit aggressive.  I calculated something like 70% of the vote going to Obama here in Arlington County and you have him increasing his margin in Loudoun and Prince William (the epitome of swing counties).  I just don't see him beating his totals here from four years ago.

    It's going to be incredibly close here but currently, I'd probably give Romney the slightest of slight edges.  It really is all going to come down to turnout of the base.  

  •  I think Obama eeks out a VA victory (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Twodaiquiris

    but it will be very close.

    Fairfax will be absolutely key. In 2008, Obama crushed McCain in Fairfax and won NOVA (Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, and Falls Church) by nearly 200,000 votes. If we can come out of NOVA this time with a margin of at least 150,000, I will feel good about the state. +175,000 and I'll feel great.

    In the exurbs, I don't think we win Loudoun, and Prince William will be a lot closer. Coal country in SWVA will be brutal for Obama, but his margins in Richmond, Norfolk, Hampton, and Newport News should hold up.

    Henrico County north of Richmond could also be interesting. If Obama fights Romney to a draw in Henrico -- or wins it outright -- that will be another important signal.

    Kaine's vote could also be very helpful. Kaine seems to be putting some distance between himself and Allen. If Kaine wins by 5 points or more, that would be a great sign.

    I see a victory in VA of closer to 1-2 points. I think 4 points is stretching it.

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