Pretty much no Latino voter wants to see Sheriff Joe re-elected and that's the point of this post: As goes Sheriff Joe, so goes the rest of the GOP in Maricopa County.
While national polls have made this race a dead heat (given the media's need to sex things up), those polling organizations have hugely underestimated Latino votes in this election:
Let's examine how these faulty Latino numbers create problems with the overall national estimates. Afterall, Latinos are estimated to comprise 10% off all voters this year. If Latinos are only leaning to Obama 48-42, that +6 edge among 10% of the electorate only contributes a net 0.6 advantage to Obama (4.8 for Obama to 4.2 for Romney).
However, if instead Obama is leading 70.3 to 21.9 that +48.4 edge contributes a net 4.8 advantage to Obama (7.0 to 2.2), hence the national polls may be missing as much as 4 full points in Obama's national numbers.
If these mistakes are being made nationally where Latinos comprise an estimated 10% of all voters, they are even worse in statewide polls in Nevada, Florida, Colorado and Arizona where Latinos comprise an even larger share of all voters. In Florida, Latinos represent an estimated 17 percent of all voters. If you are badly mis-calculating the candidate preference among 17 percent of the electorate (that's 1 out of every 6 voters), then the entire statewide estimates are wrong.
(More below.. THAT)
Likewise, while polling in Maricopa County has gone for America's most racist Sheriffagainst his progressive opponent (the lead might go the other way if not for a GOP-backed stealth "independent" candidate), those polls haven't considered that the group"Adios, Arpaio," has registered over 40,000 Hispanic voters nor that the state of Arizona has boosted Latino voting registrations by 41 percent since 2010.
With those numbers in mind, it's clear that Arpiao's opponent, former law-enforcement hero Paul Penzone can defeat Arpaio. While recent polls have Sheriff Joe up a little over five points (as of mid-October), those numbers have been closing, especially after an ad that backfired and has put Sheriff Joe back on defense.
In the meantime, up-and-down ticket races indicate that Maricopa County could be a bellwether contest, with Richard Carmona projected to win over Teabagger Jeff Flake on the right-leaning Election Projection site, while Obama is (on the same site), expected to lose by over seven points. However, as stated previously, the Hispanic vote (as well as the Native American vote, always under-counted) could create a surprise in Arizona.
Who shows up to get rid of Sheriff Joe could make the difference. Given that his tent city has amounted to over $50 million in law suits to the county since 1992, and that Arpaio squandered over $100 million in money meant to buy a new jail (opting instead for opportunities to go on TV or to hunt down brown people). So, $150 million pissed away by his office.
Given the latest law suit, wherein deputies made fun of and, ultimately killed, a mentally-ill Army veteran abused and left to die (for no other crime than being weird on the street), it's difficult to imagine that Arpaio could be reelected.
Unfortunately, neighborhoods like Sun City (as ya'll know, filled with your White grandparents) percieve Sheriff Joe as being some kind of "protector," keeping the browns out of their safe enclaves -- unless the browns are scraping weeds out of their yards. The Geritol crowd will, with few exceptions, cosign Sheriff Joe's bullshit.
However, the tide of Latino voters may well overwhelm the retirees and, in that wave, make Maricopa County turn towards Carmona and Obama.
Given that Arizona Latinos favor Obama over Romney by 77 to 10 percent (and their willingness to vote), the scenario I've just unfolded is not unlikely: We could see Carmona take Kyl's old seat; we could see Obama win in a definitively red county; and we could see Sheriff Joe retired.
However, everything is contingent... and we need the help of all of you:
Give $3 to Paul Penzone (and get rid of America's most racist Sheriff)
Give $3 to Richard Carmona
And yes, another $3 to Barack Obama
Let's show Sheriff Joe how badly he shot the GOP in the foot!
There's something happening here
But what it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware
I think it's time we stop
Children, what's that sound?
Everybody look - what's going down?
(Cross posted on The Firebird Suite where I blog about parenting, politics, and the pffff in Phoenix)