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    First of all, fuck Gallup. Obama has gone from 53% approval to them, down to 46% in a matter of a few days for no reason at all.

     Anyway, on to the point of this diary. New poll from IBD/TIPP just out today shows Obama ahead by 2.1%.

     Their write-up and regional breakdown below.


Day 19: Oct. 27, 2012
Obama: +2.1
Obama 46.6% | Romney 44.5%
Obama continues to hold a 2- point lead in our recent polls, showing that Romney still has ground to make up among key demographic groups.
Among all women, Obama's lead is now 14 points - the largest gender divide since we began polling.  
Men prefer Romney by 11 points.
While Romney runs comfortably ahead among white voters, he consistently shows deficits of close to 90 points with black voters, and 30 points or more among Hispanics.
Romney currently holds a 4-point edge over Obama with upper-income households and a 2-point edge with those described as middle-income, meaning Obama's ground game in getting lower-income and poor voters to cast ballots may be the deciding factor in the election."
But more importantly, I'd thought I'd show you their regional breakdown:

46.6% Obama
44.5% Romney
5.7%   Not Sure

51%    Obama
38%    Romney
7%      Not Sure

51%    Obama
43%     Romney
5%       Not Sure

39%     Obama
52%      Romney
5%        Not sure

52%     Obama
39%       Romney
7%         Not Sure

Honestly, I don't really care if Romney takes every vote in Alabama, so long as he has at least one less than Obama in Ohio.

All that is left really, is for someone to tell me whether this poll is accurate. They claim to have been among the most accurate in 2008 once all the votes were counted.

11:10 AM PT: Thanks for Rec List Guys!

So there are two sides. We either believe Gallup (Bush 52, Gore 39) or Rasmussen (McCain will win Florida!) or the rest of the national polls showing a close race, and the swing states polls going our way.

I like our odds.

1:26 PM PT: Just read on politico that the Romney campaign just launched, asking for donations to be able to campaign in more states.

As the top commenter on that article pointed out, it may as well be called

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