Already leading by a minimum of 4 points in every poll ever conducted, Prop 30 scored a huge win today showing itself up 48-38 in the premier in-state poll, the The Field Poll just 5 days out from the election. Pundits like Dan Walters and the Political blog at the LA Times have been drinking Republican spin about how they plan to help out the Governor if Prop 30 fails. All kinds of stories have been filed about Brown's "muddled message." Even Gavin Newsom bought into this enough to criticize the Governor's message.
Perhaps all of this hinges on the conventional wisdom that tax measures polling under 50 lose. Yet, education and school measures are usually successful. And signs are that a wave of voter registration has upped the Democratic-leaning electorate likely to support Gov. Brown's Prop 30.
None of that, nor the raw data of every poll taken has stopped the pundits from their attacks. Will any of them say they were wrong? Nope. They're pundits. They're paid to be wrong.
1:16 PM PT: This whole narrative was driven by a bunch of polls that, while still showing Prop 30 in the lead, showed it tightening. Yeah. After the voters started paying attention around Labor Day. Only a political neophyte—certainly not anyone paid to know about such things—would be surprised by that. Yet it always lead outside the margin of error and has now posted two huge leads, including this from The Field Poll, which is the most accurate in California.