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Already leading by a minimum of 4 points in every poll ever conducted, Prop 30 scored a huge win today showing itself up 48-38 in the premier in-state poll, the The Field Poll just 5 days out from the election. Pundits like Dan Walters and the Political blog at the LA Times have been drinking Republican spin about how they plan to help out the Governor if Prop 30 fails. All kinds of stories have been filed about Brown's "muddled message." Even Gavin Newsom bought into this enough to criticize the Governor's message.

Perhaps all of this hinges on the conventional wisdom that tax measures polling under 50 lose. Yet, education and school measures are usually successful. And signs are that a wave of voter registration has upped the Democratic-leaning electorate likely to support Gov. Brown's Prop 30.

None of that, nor the raw data of every poll taken has stopped the pundits from their attacks. Will any of them say they were wrong?  Nope. They're pundits. They're paid to be wrong.

1:16 PM PT: This whole narrative was driven by a bunch of polls that, while still showing Prop 30 in the lead, showed it tightening. Yeah. After the voters started paying attention around Labor Day. Only a political neophyte—certainly not anyone paid to know about such things—would be surprised by that. Yet it always lead outside the margin of error and has now posted two huge leads, including this from The Field Poll, which is the most accurate in California.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

    by Attorney at Arms on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:11:59 PM PDT

  •  I confess I haven't been following the polls here (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    librarisingnsf, Mr Robert

    in California, but this is great news. Thanks!

    Has there been any recent polling on 32?

    "I cannot live without books" -- Thomas Jefferson, 1815

    by Susan Grigsby on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:18:08 PM PDT

  •  Looking good (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Fresno, Susan from 29, sfbob

    but I wish there was a way to change the overreliance on indivdual taxpayers.  Back when Reagan was governor, the state got over 25% of its revenue from corporate taxes.  Now its 14%.

    •  Voting 'yes' on Prop 39... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Susan from 29, susakinovember

      might help a bit.

      A camel can carry a lot of gold, but it still eats alfalfa.

      by oldliberal on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:38:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ummm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hankmeister

      We have very low property taxes here. Factor that in first.

      GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

      by Attorney at Arms on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:53:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That will depend (0+ / 0-)

        on how long you've owned your property. $6k a year ain't exactly chump change. The basis rate of 1% sounds terrific but if you consider the facts that

        a) Assessed value changes when a home changes hands, often resulting in a significant tax hike for the new owner and
        b) Owners of commercial property can avoid the above by purchasing the legal entity that owns the property, rather than the property itself

        it will clue you in to the decline in commercial property taxes as a proportion of the entire worth of property in the state.

        •  Yeah, but. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sfbob, hankmeister

          I'm not saying we shouldn't be taxing commercial real estate or corporate taxes much more. And as far as how long you've owned it, great. I bought my house at the top of the market in 2007. But I only pay the assessed value, which is a little over half. So, only if you assume values are only going up (which if anything we now know is untrue) are your property taxes also going to increase.

          Property taxes are also fairly progressive in that (a) only people who own property pay them and (b) they are based on the value of what you own (at the top end)

          What sucks about California is sales tax. It's regressive. I would have preferred that Prop 30 not do that, but, this is a state that has been put on the rack by Prop 13 for 35 years. We do what we can.

          So, congratulations if your house is still worth as much or more than you paid for it. If it isn't, you better file an appeal tout suite.

          GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

          by Attorney at Arms on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 03:03:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I purchased in 2003 and (0+ / 0-)

            living in SF, things never really got too bad even at the bottom of the market, except for people who purchased right at the top.

            My point is not about the rate or the increases really; it's about the absolute dollar figure. There are huge swatches of the country where my tax bill (or yours, I'd guess) would make heads explode. I'm a real estate appraiser; I work mainly with apartment developments, but even there, when I leave California to review appraisals in, say, Las Vegas, I'm struck by how little property is taxed on a dollars per unit basis, and the same applies to single-family houses there. It's nothing, relatively speaking, even as compared to what the average Californian pays, just in absolute dollars.

  •  After the change that happened with H8 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    librarisingnsf, Susan from 29, sfbob

    we cannot be too careful

  •  I hope so (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Susan from 29, sfbob

    To lose on both education measures would be devastating for education in California. Most schools are running on the last fumes of their reserves at this point and will have to make substantial and draconian cuts to accommodate any more loss of revenue.

    Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

    by elfling on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:43:49 PM PDT

  •  Again.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr MadAsHell

    This isn't to say, "it will certainly win." It's to say the narrative is based on nothing.

    GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

    by Attorney at Arms on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:53:02 PM PDT

  •  Still a little nervous, though. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sfbob, Mr Robert

    It's never good to be below 50% this close to the election.  Oftentimes, the late-breaking voters will just vote "no" on a tax increase.  

    And, frankly, Brown's campaign has been pretty pathetic.  Very unlike him.

    The most violent element in society is ignorance.

    by Mr MadAsHell on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 01:56:16 PM PDT

  •  I'll take it. The LA Times today has a column (0+ / 0-)

    taking on Jerry Brown because his support of this measure has been clumsy at best. I like Jerry but I concur. Another headline in the Long Beach Press-Telegram: Long Beach schools bracing for big cuts. (Should it not pass.)

    On the plus side, many Democratic-leaning new voters are registered online this year, and could help pass the measure. I felt good when I read that.

    If I ever get out of here /Thought of giving it all away /To a registered charity/ All I need is a pint a day /If I ever get out of here- Paul McCartney, "Band on the Run"

    by Wildthumb on Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 02:06:28 PM PDT

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