Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Live Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.

9:37 AM PT: MI-Sen: A number of Michigan politicians (mostly Republicans) offered various statements about their interest in the state's newly open Senate seat late on Friday or over the weekend. So they didn't make it into Friday's Live Digest, but if you want to catch up on all the latest happenings, check out Monday's Morning Digest and scroll down to our MI-Sen item.

10:19 AM PT: Special Elections: We have two batches of state legislative special elections this week: several on Tuesday, and one more on Saturday in New Hampshire. As always, Johnny Longtorso has the scoop:

California SD-32: This is the seat formerly held by Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod. There are six candidates running: Paul Avila, Joanne Gilbert, Norma Torres, and Larry Walker for the Democrats, and Kenny Coble and Paul Leon for the Republicans. Avila, Torres, and Coble all ran for AD-52 in 2012; Avila came in third in the open primary with 13% of the vote, Coble came in second with 38% and lost the general 2-1, and Torres was the incumbent and victor. Gilbert is a member of the Rialto school board, Leon is the mayor of Ontario, and Walker is the San Bernardino County Auditor-Controller/Treasurer/Tax Collector (his business cards must use a really small font). Assemblywoman Torres has been endorsed by the California Democratic Party. A runoff will be held May 14 if nobody wins a majority, which seems likely given the field.

California SD-40: And this is the seat formerly held by Rep. Juan Vargas. Four filed here: Democrats Ben Huseo and Anna Nenevic, and Republicans Hector Gastelum and Xanthi Gionis. Huseo is an Assemblyman, Nenevic ran in CA-41 last year, getting third place in the open primary with 9% of the vote, Gastelum is a real estate agent, and Gionis ran in CA-51 last year, pulling in 7% and coming in fourth in the open primary. Like SD-32, a runoff will be held May 14 if no candidate gets a majority.

There's also yet another nonpartisan MS special for the open Dem seat HD-36, but I'm tired of trying to pin down political affiliations and biographies for these. Candidates: Roderick Van Daniel, Jimmy Davidson, Bobbie Davis, Karl Gibbs, Eddie Longstreet and Jeannie Johnson Staten.

New Hampshire HD-Hillsborough 9: An open Dem seat in Manchester's second ward, the candidates are Democrat Billy O'Neil and Republican Win Hutchinson. O'Neil is a local union president, while Hutchinson was elected to the seat in 2010 and lost it in 2012. The district went 54-45 for Obama last year. (Election on Saturday, March 16.)

11:04 AM PT: OH-Gov: On Monday, Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald became the first Democrat to take real steps toward running for governor. He announced the creation of an exploratory committee (which will allow him to raise money) and also posted a welcome video on his new website. Meanwhile, another top contender, former state AG Richard Cordray, is scheduled to go before a Senate committee on Tuesday that's conducting a hearing on his nomination to head up the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Cordray's nomination is bitterly opposed by Republicans, so if he fails to get confirmed, he may head home and run for governor instead.

11:41 AM PT: WATN?: Of course: Former Sen. Joe Lieberman's landing at the American Enterprise Institute, a pillar of the conservative movement and a frequent stop (or final resting place) for folks riding the wingnut welfare circuit. Even better, he's teaming up with fellow retired Sen. Jon Kyl, and it sounds like their project is basically to make the case for increased American military adventurism around the world. Just lovely.

11:56 AM PT: NYC Mayor: At long last, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn formally declared her candidacy for the Democratic nomination in the New York City mayoral race, which takes place this fall. As I've written before, it's been a weird race, with the major candidates all in "clearly running" mode despite a general refusal to actually kick off their campaigns in some sort of typical fashion.

Three years ago, 2009 nominee Bill Thompson told the New York Times in an interview that he planned to run again but has since eschewed a traditional launch event. Things finally began to move in January, when Public Advocate Bill de Blasio ushered in his campaign in the usual speech-and-rally style. But there's still one laggard, and to me, it's the guy who has by far the most work to do: Comptroller John Liu, who has been dogged for years by allegations of campaign finance irregularities. Liu's been appearing at forums and doing everything you'd expect of declared candidate, but he still hasn't said the magic words yet.

12:12 PM PT: MA-Gov: So you're a former Republican senator from a blue state who did a semi-decent job of convincing the world that you "aren't like" the rest of your party, and now you're maybe holding the door open to a possible run for governor. What do you do to burnish your credentials and maximize your chances? Well, first step, of course, is to sign on as an analyst at FOX News. After that, the next obvious move is to get hired as a lobbyist. So say hello to "business and governmental affairs" specialist Scott Brown, and never mind that ka-chinging sound.

12:31 PM PT (David Jarman): Seattle mayor: Former King County Executive (and former #2 at HUD) Ron Sims just announced that he won't be running for Seattle mayor, which pretty much clears up the last major question mark about who's in and who's out. While his decision isn't too surprising (his interest had seemed only half-hearted), the timing is a little surprising; it comes less than a week after a SurveyUSA poll showed him with a pretty clear path to victory if he wanted it. (It showed him and incumbent Mike McGinn advancing out of the top 2 primary, and presumably anti-McGinn votes would coalesce behind him in the general.)

12:45 PM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: The NRCC isn't waiting until the much-hyped RNC "autospy" of the GOP's 2012 fail to make some changes of their own, starting with changes to their internal polling operations. That includes, for instance, a focus on better modeling techniques, such as "projecting district-by-district population changes and mapping best- and worst-case turnout scenarios." (At which point you ask, "Ummm, isn't that something they should have been doing all along?!?") Pollsters who work for the NRCC will be required, going forward, to make sure that at least 30% of their samples are cellphones, and that Spanish-language call centers are used in significantly Hispanic districts.

1:35 PM PT: NE-Sen: The entire Nebraska political establishment is waiting on GOP Gov. Dave Heineman to decide whether he wants to run for the state's open Senate seat, but everyone will have to wait a bit longer: Heineman plans to take a "month or more," in the AP's words, to make a decision. Heineman has never sounded very interested in a bid, and this latest article only confirms that. He makes it plain that he prefers being a governor to a senator, and that he likes living in Nebraska more than he would in DC. If Heineman doesn't go for it, it would likely lead to a wide-open Republican primary and perhaps given Democrats a very longshot chance at the seat.

1:56 PM PT: OR-Gov: This report on GOP recruiting woes in the Beaver State from veteran analyst Jeff Mapes is just brutal:

In past years, it was not unusual to find potential candidates for Oregon governor doing early spadework for their campaigns at the annual Dorchester Conference for Republican activists.

But with the next gubernatorial primary just over a year away, there was barely a hint at this year's gathering here that any Republican is even looking at running.

The lack of activity was so pronounced that the conference's Saturday night satirical show ran a video that began with an announcer intoning, "Now we go live to the 2014 Republican governor's debate." The camera then panned over a debate stage with two empty chairs, the monotony broken only by a broom-wielding janitor.

That would have been a funny video... at a Democratic gathering! I'm pretty amazed that Republicans would even "joke" like that about themselves, though, because that's effing painful. And buried at the very end of the piece is about the thinnest possible reed of hope that a candidate might even emerge: Mapes mentions that state Rep. Bruce Hanna "provided lanyards with his name and website on them for the attendees." But is he even expressing interest in the race? That would be a no.

3:10 PM PT: IA-01: There's been a crowd of reasonably big names eyeing Bruce Braley's open House seat, but here's a new one: state Sen. Steve Sodders says he's "taking a serious look" at entering the Democratic primary. State Rep. Pat Murphy is already in the race, but I would definitely expect others to join.

3:45 PM PT: IA-Sen: As Steve King waits for the moon's appearance in the Seventh House and Jupiter to align with Mars, other Iowa Republicans are sitting around and offering tentative statements about their own possible interest in the Senate race—but they are all, of course, deferring to the King. The latest is state GOP chair A. J. Spiker, who offered a very tentative "we'll see" when asked if he might run himself. Might be a while yet before peace guides the planets and love steers the stars.

3:54 PM PT: WV-02: O rly? Roll Call's Abby Livingston reports that former Maryland state Republican Party chair Alex Mooney has moved to neighboring West Virginia ... and is thinking about a run for the state's open 2nd District. You may remember Mooney from his embarrassing abortive attempt last year to primary his former boss, ex-Rep. Roscoe Bartlett; Mooney was forced to abandon his plans after finally realizing that, you know, perhaps the head of the party shouldn't be trying to unseat one of its own members. When he announced his resignation from the MD GOP last month, Mooney held out the possibility that he might nevertheless try running for that same seat again (now held by Democrat John Delaney), but that's obviously not going to happen now.

4:07 PM PT: SC-Sen-A: Huh. Okay. Bruce Carroll, the founder of GOProud, a gay Republican organization that has sometimes received abuse at the hands of its fellow party members, says he's resigning his post because he's considering a primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham. I do have to wonder if South Carolina is would really be hospitable to a Carroll candidacy, though.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PDT

  •  this empty diary can be the moment of silence (10+ / 0-)

    for all of whose who were affected by the terrible triple earthquake-tsunami-nuclear disaster two years ago. (a moment of silence which, strangely, my office did not have.)

    3/11, never forget.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:43:01 AM PDT

  •  Scott Brown says he is making a non political (0+ / 0-)

    announcement today at noon.

  •  Falklands referendum results? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, gabjoh

    Anyone have a guess how long it will take to tally the votes in the Falklands / Islas Malvinas referendum that took place over the weekend?

    A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

    by Christopher Walker on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:22:39 AM PDT

  •  Will whites vote more republican (11+ / 0-)

    as the nation diversifies? That's what this guy argues.

    It’s assumed that, as the United States becomes increasingly non-white, white Democrats will continue to support the party. But a substantial amount of social-science evidence suggests a different conclusion: As the United States becomes more racially and ethnically diverse, liberal whites might start leaning Republican.
    And then he cites some social sciencey experiments to back up the argument.

    It doesn't make sense to me though. One example he gives is among liberal whites in Masschusetts who supposedly become more conservative when exposed to hispanic people. Now, Massachusetts has been growing quite a bit more diverse over the last couple of decades. The hispanic, black, and asian populations all grew by 20-50% from 2000-2010, while the white population actually shrank. Basically the same story in Rhode Island and Connecticut, not to mention New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, Illinois, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington... but all of these states have trended pretty strongly towards the Democrats since the 90s, and I've never seen evidence that whites in any of these places have become more republican; I think it's probably the opposite.

    Of course, the Upland South has trended mad republican. But that includes states like West Virginia, which is super-white and hardly diversifying at all, and similar regions in other states like Kentucky and Arkansas. Those shifts seem to have everything to do with partisan realignment rather than anxiety about ethnic others (which, at any rate, is hardly a new phenomenon in that part of the country, despite its whiteness).

    And generally, it's hard to pick out any trend in white support for Democrats since 1972, at least.

    So basically I don't see any evidence for this hypothesis. The experiments the author cites hardly seem conclusive for that hypothesis, but they are at least intriguing. I'm wondering, then, if anyone here buys into this theory? If so, why?

    •  Older whites (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, skibum59, Woody, JBraden

      It's definitely an interesting thought experiment. I think there was probably truth to this over the last decade, but I think after 2 tickets led by BHO, most if not any of the people that might be affected by this have already fled the party.

      I think you may find the opposite among young whites, who having grown up in a more pluralistic America tend to prefer diversity over lack thereof.

      That said, political parties are coalitions of convenience. The GOP is going to need to decide where it regains the support to hit 50%.

      I see their best chance to gain support in their loss of the suburban whites. If they abandon the fight over marriage equality and moderate somewhat on abortion, I think they could retailer their economic message to identify with a lot of these voters.

      But who knows, politics is fickle and it is really quite impossible to predict with surety what the political calculus of the future would be.

      I mean, you did have a black Democrat take the presidency with Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana but without Appalachia. Politics is quite the peculiar sport.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 10:04:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you look at precinct level maps for NC (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        Astonishingly, the biggest swings towards the GOP among white voters were not in Appalachia but in Charlotte and Raleigh.  The Charlotte and Raleigh areas overall only swung slightly Republican because of the higher number of minorities voting in 2012.  But the pattern of middle-to-upper class suburban white voters trending Republican in 2012 was seen all across the country:  Northern VA, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, etc.

        •  Don't confuse "pattern" with "single election. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, Skaje, JBraden

          Those voters are still way more Democratic than they were in the 80s and 90s.

          •  Definitely (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, JBraden

            At the very least, 2012 must be viewed together with 2008.  When only looking at 2012, one might get the idea that the upper midwest is drastically and rapidly trending Republican.  But look back four years earlier, and it's precisely the opposite.  Indeed, the areas in 2008 that swung the most Dem were often the areas to bounce back GOP the hardest in the subsequent election.  The Dakotas, Montana, and Utah also displayed the same effect.

            As for "middle class suburban white voters" in particular, it's undeniable Romney made up a lot of ground that McCain had lost, but he was still well behind Bush's numbers.  Obama still hit impressive numbers in the suburbs for a Democrat, just not quite as insane as in 2008.

    •  While I get what the author is trying to say (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy

      he neglects to mention that Republicans will have to keep raising the bar with white voters to win as the minority population continues to grow each. IIRC Romney needed to win close to 61% of the white population to have a chance at winning, by 2016 that number will be even higher.

      And even if these liberal white did join the party they aren't going to turn into conservative R's overnight, more likely than not I could only see them voting for RINO's.

      I can see some more of the conservative and centrist whites moving to the GOP column but I don't think that will be enough for the GOP to win.

      Even some older whites I know (who came from the New Deal Era) are still die hard Democrats and don't seem to be willing to change they're voting habits anytime soon.

      I think what really hinges on more liberal leaning whites moving to the GOP is if the GOP actually decides to moderate (which I also don't see happening anytime soon either). Even if the GOP does moderate on social issues what will become of their southern base? Will conservative evangelicals hold their nose and continue voting GOP? will they try the 3rd party route? or will swear off politics?

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:09:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think what *could* eventually happen (4+ / 0-)

        is that the Republicans drop the social issues schtick and pick up a bunch of socially lilberal/fiscally conservative voters that they've been systematically alienating over the past decade or so. That'll help them in places like CO and VA that have been slipping away from them and allow them to at least sort of compete in New England and NJ and places like that, though it might have ambivalent effects in the midwest.

        •  They've already been doing that.... (0+ / 0-)

          They've managed to shut up the evangelicals in 2010 and the 2012 campaign was mostly silent about social issues.  The mistake that they made was trying to implement social policy, which made big news and destroyed their efforts to hide their real agenda.  That was post-2010, though.  Their 2010 campaign was totally and completely silent on social issues for the first time in decades.  It worked.  Expect them to keep trying.  The evangelical base is OK with them being silent about their issues as long as they actually try to implement those issues after the election.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:18:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Race isn't the defining issue in America (0+ / 0-)

      Quality of life is.

      50 years ago, white opinion diverged far more drastically from minority opinion.  50 years from now it will diverge even less.

      Race was the key 19th century issue that partly sorted iteself out in the 20th century and now still has a smallish amount of shaking out left to do, but far less so than the previous 150 years.

      It's a mighty poor analysis to think that this massive historical trend will reverse itself for no particularly compelling reason.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:49:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  *facepalm* (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, gabjoh, Woody

        I don't know what you mean by "the defining issue," or even if there is such a thing. However, to argue that race is not still a major issue in American life is incredibly naive and reeks of privilege. Have you been hiding under a rock for the last four years?

        •  You can't be serious (0+ / 0-)

          Show some evidence that race is the single most important issue to the majority of people.  Your assertion is laughable.

          (Or, if you don't know what "the" means, maybe you ought to do some reading up on it before making silly statements.)

          Race is one issue, an important issue, but it is not by any means the leading issue for the majority of people, or the majority of caucasians, around which every other issue is defined.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:55:31 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  both of your comments erect (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skibum59, Chachy, Skaje, DCCyclone

            straw men.  Neither of you has said what the other claims he said.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:02:26 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I know what you meant (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, bumiputera

            but the idea that there has ever been one issue that is THE central issue of American life is silly. At times, one issue has captured more of the public debate than others, but in reality, American life has always involved a complex intersection of issues of which race has been and continues to be a major one. The way you said that there is a "smallish amount of shaking out left to do" makes it sound like our county's societal problems with race are small and rapidly going the way of the dodo, which is just false. I mean, it seems a lot like you're saying "Well, we got rid of slavery and finally gave blacks the vote (f0r real, mostly), so since I don't notice the operation of race in my life, it clearly isn't a major factor in it and if it is it will go away in like, 10 years tops."

    •  I buy into it (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skibum59, psychicpanda

      because I believe that we generally have equilibrium between the parties, and Whites (especially in the Midwest) are more likely to me than Hispanics to become more conservative.

      I think as private sector unions continue to die, the Midwestern Democrats will become more Republican.  I see a Republican path to victory by around 2024 including Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, and possibly Michigan as well.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:53:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  disagree (10+ / 0-)

        There is no evidence that any of those 5 states are trending red. Here are their patterns since 1988, when private sector unionization was higher than it is now:

        MN 88 D+7.5, 92 D+4.2, 96 D+4.7, 00 D+1.0, 04 D+3.0, 08 D+1.6, 12 D+1.9

        It had a red trend through the 90s, since then it's always been around D+2.

        IA 88 D+9.0, 92 D+0.2, 96 D+1.0, 00 R+0.1, 04 D+0.9, 08 D+1.2, 12 D+1.0

        Apart from the farm crisis driven blip in 88, there is no trend here. It's D+1.

        WI 88 D+5.7, 92 R+0.7, 96 D+1.2, 00 R+0.2, 04 D+1.4, 08 D+3.5, 12 D+1.5

        08 and 12 were Dems' two best years since 1988.

        OH 88 R+1.6, 92 R+2.3, 96 R+1.1, 00 R+2.1, 04 D+0.1, 08 R+1.3, 12 R+0.4

        Averaged R+1.8 through 2000, R+0.5 since. Looks like a blue trend if anything.

        MI 88 R+0.1, 92 D+1.1, 96 D+2.6, 00 D+2.3, 04 D+2.9, 08 D+3.8, 12 D+2.8

        Has gone from a swing state to a D+3 afterthought.

        These states are mostly white but they have a long history of being generally pro-government and especially pro-education. Their big strengths tend to be their universities, and going forward their job growth is likely to be largely in white collar tech/professional sectors where the GOP does poorly. I'm not seeing a future red trend in any of them unless the Dems go off the rails.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:36:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What sacman said. (5+ / 0-)

        But also, what is the mechanism by which "we generally have equilibrium between the parties"? Are you saying it's just metaphysically necessary that Rs and Ds be in balance over any reasonable length of time?

        I mean, I agree that in the long run the parties will tend towards equilibrium, because the minority party will have incentive to move towards the ideological center. But that's not what the author is saying - he's saying that white voters will become more conservative as they are exposed to more minorities, and that this will harm Democrats.

        Whereas you seem to be making a whole different argument - namely, that the parties just have to be roughly in balance, and that the growth of minority voters will therefore have to be cancelled out by some countervailing force; and you suggest declining unionization rates in the midwest will be this force.

        Personally, though, I don't see any reason that the parties must remain in balance in the short- to medium-term (i.e., a party could maintain a "natural majority" over the course of a generation or so).

        (Incidentally, a Democrat in 2024 could get to 270 EVs without MN, IA, WI, MI, OH, or even PA by winning the rest of the Obama states plus NC; they wouldn't even need GA or AZ, which should also be competitive on the strength of minority growth.)

        •  I don't believe in natural majorities (0+ / 0-)

          that last more than a decade.  The GOP will moderate because it has to, and they will do it by 2020.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:31:10 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Or they'll continue to push voter supression (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, Skaje

            gerrymandering, and the related bullshit to delay that day as long as possible as they've been doing...

          •  I don't see why not (6+ / 0-)

            Democrats kept consistent control of the House of Representatives for forty years before losing control of the chamber.

            That the GOP has to moderate doesn't mean anything really, until their base moderates enough to allow its members to go towards the center without fear of primary loss, the party will never change and they can stay in the minority for a long time because of it.

            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

            by NMLib on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:08:41 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Democrats did (0+ / 0-)

              But it included conservatives who would be Republicans today.  If the Dixiecrats become Democrats I agree.  If the Democratic party remains center-left, then equilibrium will resume.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:51:20 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  But why? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Skaje, Stephen Wolf

                The Republican Party is openly hostile to minorities as is, and it's a direct result of attitudes of their base. You are saying that Republicans will just start appealing to minorities because they have to, but you aren't explaining how they'll do that without incurring the wrath of their base that doesn't want to appeal to minorities by moderating.

                That Democrats had their majorities based on Dixicrats is irrelevant, it still took a very long time for the parties to realign enough that they moved away from the Republicans. You act like equilibrium is the iron law of politics, but the opposite is true, for the 20th century, Republicans basically controlled the House until Hoover. Not to mention we have so many states right now that are clearly dominated by one party and will very obviously continue for a very long time.

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 10:15:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  I do not know about WI (5+ / 0-)

        Dane County has the largest absolute growth of any county any state.  Additionally, while the Northwoods seems to be going against us, that part of the state is actually losing people and the trend up there is counteracted (at least somewhat) by the areas in SW part of the state.

        Social Democrat, WI-05

        by glame on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:37:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Generally (0+ / 0-)

          Republican-trending areas are the ones that are losing people.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:51:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  It's not that white people's voting habits (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bumiputera

      will change, but who is considered/considers themselves white will. Heck, 100 years ago "Armenian" was a separate item on census forms, and there's a lot of groups now considered "white" that wouldn't be in the past. I'd say almost by definition, we will never see what what people at the time would call a minority-white USA due to these constantly shifting goalposts.

      Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 03:02:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hate that I missed this earlier today...... (5+ / 0-)

      This is one of my most obsessive topics.

      The column is junk.  We have plenty of data to establish for a fact that Democratic Presidential nominees have held steady with white voters while nonwhite voting has grown as a share of the total.  This has been true for 20 years now.

      Those social science experiments aren't worth anything in predicting voting behavior because they look like they can have the same pitfalls as message-testing polls.  You do a private poll, you have an initial ballot test and then later a post-message testing ballot test, perhaps ostensibly "neutral" with both positive and negative messages about you and the other guy before the second ballot test.  Then, lo and behold, your numbers are better on the second test!  But then on election day the initial ballot test was correct and predictive.  Focus groups can function similarly with pitfalls.  There is useful info from these things, but you can't take to the bank how people react in the controlled setting since they go back to life and are affected by everything else going on and revert to form.  Some of what you discover is stuff that can really stick, but it's hard to know.

      These people do these experiments trying to control for outside factors, but that's a major fail because in real life voting behavior all outside factors matter.

      On top of all this, there is something very important to what tommypaine said below in his first line about race not being a defining issue.  It's important because this thesis about whites declining in support for Dems assumes that race plays outsize importance in the voting behavior of whites who haven't been motivated by it all these decades as dramatic demographic shift has already happened.  And that's not plausible.

      Democrats have pulled anywhere from 35% to 43% of the white vote in Presidentials starting in 1980, which was the election that changed Presidential voting behavior forever.  It's not reasonable to think it's going to fall below that band, and there's no basis for it.

      I did get into a debate on this very subject on Twitter with a guy who used to be a SSP/DKE community member and was using badly flawed assumptions to conclude the opposite as me.  He came up with this notion of "relative" voting behavior by whites that doesn't make sense.  The absolute numbers are what matter and are pretty compelling that we perform in a narrow range with whites, and that's trouble for the GOP as minorities continue to grow.

      Meanwhile, there is nothing happening in communities of color to draw voters to the GOP.  In fact, exactly the opposite has been happening, GOP racism has become more conspicuous and that and perhaps other factors have doomed the GOP with almost all communities of color for the forseeable future.

      45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:51:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is a very good point: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, bumiputera
        this thesis about whites declining in support for Dems assumes that race plays outsize importance in the voting behavior of whites who haven't been motivated by it all these decades as dramatic demographic shift has already happened.  And that's not plausible.
        And it's not just the last few decades; this has been a racially diverse society since the 17th century. Or if you want to just look at the north, which was relatively racially homogeneous, that region saw a huge influx of African Americans from the south from the 1910s to the 1960s. What is it about the growth of hispanic and asian communities in those same states that is suddenly going to racially polarize the electorate in a way that the Great Migration and the entire history of racial polarization in the US did not?

        I suppose explicit racial appeals by republicans - a tactic they have used - could help them pick off xenophobic whites at the margins; but it's pretty obvious that in the long run it's costing them more with non-whites than it's helping them with whites.

        •  All the xenophobic whites already vote GOP (0+ / 0-)

          If you're uncomfortable with a person of color as President, or with someone with a "funny" name as President, well we have both as President right now.  That and he represents a much-discussed growing minority vote.

          And for all that, whites are behaving the same as always.

          Obama's 2008 performance, after so much demographic shift already, tied Clinton '96 for the all-time Democratic best since the Carter plunge.  And Obama '12 dropped only 4 points with whites in an economy that is the worst since '92, and after most stubborn economic downturn in post-WWII America.  Economics alone explain the dip perfectly.

          These people claiming white support will continue to slide don't have a clue what they're talking about.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 05:38:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I see white republicanism as something like (0+ / 0-)

      anything else someone acquires. It has its triggers and there are certain things that can trigger it. Just as smoking is a good innoculator towards getting lung cancer, so too is atheism and secularism in general towards combating republicanism among the white population.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:53:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Minor quibble (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        Probably better to put "Republicanism" than "republicanism"? Seeing as the latter refers to a philosophy I and many others here share (insofar as y'all oppose the US (and in my case the UK as well) having a monarch).

        Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 09:32:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This points to another important factor: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, Stephen Wolf

        "heterogenerous whites" or whatever you want to call them - i.e., those whites who don't identify with the white-dominant subculture - are growing as a share of the white population. This includes (self-identifying) gays and lesbians, atheists, the non-religious, NGO workers and other non-capitalists, Jews, intellectuals, artists, hipsters... Appeal to white cultural identity is as much of a turnoff to these groups as it is to minorities.

  •  I find this lil amusing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, aamail6, itskevin

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 10:12:22 AM PDT

  •  WI-Sen: RoJo will run for reelection (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Just in case you were wondering about 2016:

    http://thehill.com/...

    You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

    by Gpack3 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 10:17:29 AM PDT

    •  and most likely will lose (5+ / 0-)

      I can't contain myself when it comes to 2016. This is lean Dem at best.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 10:45:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Likely Dem if Russ goes for the rematch. (5+ / 0-)

        You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

        by Gpack3 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:45:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do you think he will? (0+ / 0-)

          "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:48:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd rather see Feingold (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A

            run for governor.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:28:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ron Johnson (4+ / 0-)

              Johnson should be toast no matter who runs.  He's to the right of Pat Roberts, Thad Cochran, (possibly Roger Wicker) both Georgia and TN Senators, John Hoeven, others in my estimation.  

              Russ's loss was stunning to me because I think Johnson lacks the charm of other successful, rich Republicans like Gordon Smith for example. Johnson on the other hand is a loudmouth ideologue who loves the TV camera.

              Say what you want about Tommy Thompson, his temper and several other factors that came into play in that race, but if Tommy can't win an open seat in Wisconsin in 2012 Johnson should have no realistic shot against Ron Kind, Mahlon Mitchell, Steve Kagen, whomever.  

              •  Democrats should be able to get someone (0+ / 0-)

                better than Ron Kind.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:38:34 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Ugh no (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, NMLib, Woody, pademocrat

            that was a pathetic race he ran in 2010. I rather someone else like Ron Kind or even Jen Shilling

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 02:03:38 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think he was that bad in his campaign. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody

              But his unilateral surrender on outside spending likely hurt.

              "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

              by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 02:11:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  If he runs for anything again, it will be this (0+ / 0-)

            The rumblings I've heard are that he wants to go for the rematch, but who knows?

            You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

            by Gpack3 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 08:55:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like to see Russ step aside (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, askew

        and let a younger progressive run against Johnson in '16. I'd prefer Mark Pocan, but he's from the same district as Baldwin, and having two senators from the same region of the state is frowned upon in larger states like WI. Mahlon Mitchell, Jennifer Shilling, and state senators like Jon Erpenbach and Lena Taylor are all possibilities. I'm not enthusiastic about Kind and Kagen, I'd prefer somebody more progressive than them.

        Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

        by betelgeux on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:19:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Chris Larson (0+ / 0-)

          That would be a good opening for him. He could run without giving up his state Senate seat, and he won't be as green.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 08:57:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NJ: Democratic mayor switching parties (0+ / 0-)

    and will run for the State Senate seat being vacated by Barbara Buono.

    At this point, Christie's coattails are what worry me more than him winning re-election.

    The Dem nominee is expected to be Assemblyman Peter Barnes.

    link

    Is there any chance we could lose either house of the NJ legislature?  

    •  I don't think we'll lose either chamber (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, jj32, itskevin, pademocrat

      we may lose a a few seats but that won't be enough.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:23:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats led the generic ballot by 7-15% (6+ / 0-)

      in polls done this year.  I read about this and I don't think this district as at all at risk, but it'll probably be a 55-45% victory rather than a 60-40% one like usual.   And furthermore, I believe downstate, Sen. Van Drew got the Republican former Mayor of Vineland to switch to Democrat to likely run for Freeholder so this isn't without turnabout.  It should also be noted that LD-18 is 57.5% Avg Dem. and contains Edison.  Finally, yes, coattails do concern me but at this point he probably has as much of that as Sandoval did in NV when Democrats held the entire State legislature in 2010.

      "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:34:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In response to the Twitter question... (0+ / 0-)

    On shortest given name for a senator: I believe it's Sen. Ron Wyden, since Sen. Mo Cowan doesn't count (right?).

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:32:23 AM PDT

  •  Anyone care to speak on Fitzgerald for OH-Gov? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus, betelgeux, LordMike, Gygaxian

    Is he strong?

    "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:39:27 AM PDT

    •  I think he could be (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, LordMike

      He's got a pretty solid base of support in Cuyahoga county, being pretty popular with the swingier, more sububurban, white areas of the county. That's how he's been described by the locals who pass by here sometimes.

      If he can win Cuyahoga 70-30 and get bigger turnout, it makes him formidible. A Cordray-Fitzgerald ticket would be even more formidible.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 11:48:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I live in SW Ohio (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, betelgeux, LordMike

      and it's going to be a huge, huge challenge for FitzGerald to gain traction here and in other parts of the state due to low name rec and regional biases.  He can't just run up the score in the NE and expect to win.  

      Speaking of which, do voters in Cuyahoga County have an opinion on him, or even know who he is?  He's only been in office since 2011.

      •  He sounds pretty well-know there (7+ / 0-)

        And actually, Fitzgerald could just run up the score in North Ohio and win, as long as he kept Hamilton county close (with a LG ticket like Ed Portune?), and held up in increasingly Democratic Franklin County. Fitzgerald is the kind of candidate who could win Cuyahoga 70-30, then carry Lorain + Summit with about 57% of the vote, and get 65% in the Mahoning valley, and 62% in Lucas. It's virtually impossible for a  state Republican to overcome that raw vote total, even if they do even better than Romney did against Obama in the southeast part of the state.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:08:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  outside of Dayton and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Cincinnati are there more than a handful of Dem voters in SW Ohio?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:24:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fitzgerald is well known and well liked... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades, aamail6

        The new office of county executive holds a lot of power, and Fitzgerald has made the most of it.  How will his popularity translate to other parts of the state is unknown.  He should do fine in Columbus, Toledo, Youngstown, Akron and Kent.  If he can pull off a good chunk of Strickland voters in SW Ohio, he'll be in good shape.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:52:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  WATN (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Despite impending civil and criminal trials, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis changed his mind and decided to seek re-election as an independent.

    Davis will face the winner of a 6 candidate Republican primary and the winner of a 2 candidate Democratic primary, then he'll probably lose by 70%.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:01:22 PM PDT

  •  LA-Gov (5+ / 0-)

    Guess what Jindal's up to folks: http://theadvocate.com/...

    He's proposing a major new "tax reform" (in the last two years of an 8 year governorship), that's been talking about since January but in typical Jindal fashion has kept details secret. The two things the media has reported on it is that:

    1. Business leaders seem passively antagonistic to it.
    2. Jindal is, I shit you not, proposing to eliminate the state personal and corporate income tax altogether, and "raise sales taxes on an expanded category of goods and services, which also would be revenue neutral." You can't get to sounding any more like Paul Ryan if you tried.

    But basically, to anyone who can see through the codes, knows that this is, essentially, an attempt to put in as regressive a tax system as possible. A purely sales tax system pushes even more of the burden onto poor and working class families, and effectively reduces the tax burden of the wealthy. It's the most "freeper" of insurgent conservative wishes, and it seems like it would create an even more unstable revenue flow for the state, and possibly under-generate revenue, which makes sense seeing as how Jindal has spent the last 6 years cutting the state higher education and healthcare budgets, to disastrous hidden effect.

    I'm hopeful that this will not pass. Jindal has very little political capitol at this point, and even some extremely far right conservatives like my city of Monroe's Bob Kostelka, seem questionable on the bill. State Senator Gerald Long is a Republican I could see opposing it, as he is more moderate and is running for Governor. Alario too, since he's a standard power and pork Democrat. Needless to say, it would damage Jindal further if his personally promoted, signature tax reform plan went down in flames, even with Republican control of the legislature.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:02:00 PM PDT

    •  Won't pass as is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, KingofSpades, pademocrat

      I think this may have been discussed previously, but the bill he has proposed will not pass. This legislation wouldn't need a simple majority to pass, as it raises tax rates it would need 2/3, which ain't gonna happen.

      I think what may pass, if anything, is something similar to what has been proposed nationally, except the LA version being revenue neutral.

      Louisiana spends an ungodly amount of money on tax expenditures (the Dept of Revenue puts the figure at more than $1.2B), and what'll most likely happen is a decrease in these coupled with a decrease in the overall rates.

      And that's something I'd actually support, as most of the tax expenditures here are targeted at big corporations and the very wealthy.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:20:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You're talking about tax rebates (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Schmitz

        and the like?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:23:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tax expenditures (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, sacman701, James Allen, Skaje

          is essentially government spending through the tax code via credits, deductions, exemptions, rebates, etc.

          They're less efficient than ordinary government spending and are too often not as progressive.

          This was discussed on Up in the last couple weeks, but the idea here is if, say, I make $50k and you make $500k.

          We both qualify for Tax Credit 123, which allows us to deduct $5k from our taxable income.

          Now my taxable income is $5k and yours is $495k. The problem is that your marginal tax rate on that $5k is higher than mine, so you, the wealthy guy, see your taxes lower than mine.

          If my marginal rate was 20% and yours was 30%, than the tax credit would save me, the $50k guy, $1k (5k x .2= 1k). However, you, the rich guy, would end up saving more from the exact same credit because your marginal rate is higher (5k x .3= 1.5k).

          Long story short, tax expenditures are typically regressive and inefficient, and getting rid of the vast majority of them would be a good thing. I'll reserve my judgment until I see the final plan from the governor and what exactly makes it out of committee in the legislature.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:07:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I can read between the lines (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Schmitz

        That Jindal's plan seems pretty dead in the water no matter how much he may try to bully it through. I'm going to enjoy him take the latest political beating though.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:24:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  *watching him take (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:24:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  In Oregon (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        well over half of the money the state collects goes to that.  1.2 billion is nothing compared to here.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:29:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And yet Kitzhaber (0+ / 0-)

          feels the need to raid pension benefits in a likely illegal manner?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:25:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Nebraska Gov Heineman had a similar proposal (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, ArkDem14

      this year.  It died miserably.  Virtually every group was against it, from the usual democratic anti-regressive tax groups, to republican business groups.  

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 05:35:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  new WV2 Republican candidate? (6+ / 0-)

    might be Alex Mooney, who just moved from Maryland to West Virginia within the last month. Mooney is a former chair of the Maryland GOP and lost his seat in the state senate in 2010.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:22:06 PM PDT

  •  KY-SEN: DSCC executive director says they are (6+ / 0-)

    looking at several candidates.

    link.

    •  Trying to read between the lines on this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, betelgeux, LordMike

      With Judd now tipped to declare a bid later this spring, statements like this from the DSCC suggest they're not satisfied with her. On the other hand, they could provide cover for her by avoiding the appearance that she was anointed by national Democrats to run in a state where national Democrats are viewed about as favorably as Guy Fieri.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:37:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I believe the DSCC (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, Gygaxian, aamail6

      is still trying to recruit Lundergan Grimes. They probably (correctly) view her as someone who could truly make the race competitive by winning over the state's independents, who have long been dissatisfied with McConnell (his approvals have never been stellar, and he nearly lost to a mediocre candidate in 2008). I don't think Judd will be able to win over these voters, although she may be attractive as an "outsider" now, Kentuckians will quickly shy away from her once they realize just how liberal she is. She'd be better suited for Vermont.

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:24:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Corbett Headed for the Gutter. (17+ / 0-)

    Compliments of PPP:

    "Tom Corbett's already awful poll numbers have gotten worse since January- now trails every Democrat we tested against him."

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 12:52:16 PM PDT

  •  Why is McGuinn unpopular again? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Stephen Schmitz, betelgeux

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 01:26:16 PM PDT

    •  Chestnut Mare (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Dude 415
    •  Two factors (8+ / 0-)

      One, he has no natural constituency; he's basically one step up from a Some Dude, who accidentally got elected mayor by being in the right place at the right time, after Greg Nickels imploded. So while he got a majority in the last election (against a rival Some Dude who ran to McGinn's right), no one was particularly loyal to him. He was elected mostly through a green/non-white coalition, but now enviros are mostly going for Peter Steinbrueck, people of color are going mostly for Bruce Harrell (who's half-black, half-Asian), and that leaves McGinn with pretty much nobody.

      Two, there's a general sense of his being in way over his head, especially in terms of blowing his political capital on things that don't matter or that have already turned against him. Case in point, the deep bore tunnel under downtown: he campaigned against it in the early stages of his campaign, and that's probably what helped him gain traction, thanks to Seattle's long tradition of hand-wringing NIMBYism. When he made it through the top 2 and found that polling revealed that his opposition to the tunnel was his main obstacle to actually winning the general, though, he said he wouldn't oppose it any more. Once he became mayor, he resumed opposing the tunnel. So we had a referendum on whether to build the tunnel, which passed overwhelmingly. Since that referendum, people have essentially been tuning him out, and he's just consensus DOA.

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 03:09:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the background (0+ / 0-)

        Who are you rooting for?

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:37:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hell if I know? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          Maybe Steinbrueck, but we've got three or four legitimately good options. (Even Tim Burgess, the "most conservative" member of the field, would be the most liberal candidate in most other normal cities.)

          Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

          by David Jarman on Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 11:11:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  InTrade went belly-up (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, pistolSO

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 02:01:41 PM PDT

  •  GOV-2014: EMILY's list president gives an (7+ / 0-)

    interview to National Journal, and notes they have spoken to 15 candidates in different states about running, although she admits they wont all run.

    Schirock seems to break some news that RI State treasurer Gina Raimondo will run for governor.

    In addition to Raimondo, there are four other strong female candidates listed as potential gov. candidates: Lisa Madigan, Allyson Schwartz and Colleen Hanabusa. I could see all four winning their races next year if they were the party's nominee.

    Schirock didnt note who she spoke with in ME or FL. I'm guessing Chellie or Hannah Pingree in ME and Pam Iorio in FL.

    At least 7 Democratic female governors after 2014 is not out of the question.

    link.

  •  New York City ban on large sized sodas overruled! (8+ / 0-)

    A day before it was supposed to go into effect, the ban on large soft drinks was overturned by the court.

    What makes this interesting is that, barring a different ruling in a higher court, it would have to go to the city council.  This also puts pressure on the candidates running for mayor to each take a stand.

    A lot of people are irate at this whole ban.  They it as a personal decision, the public health benefit not withstanding.  Mayor Bloomberg has done a lot to create a "nanny state", and the potential political blowback will be interesting to watch.

    Without discussing the merits here, it will be interesting to see how the different Democrat candidates and the main GOP candidate(s?)  play up this ban on soda (soda pop for the midwesterners here!)

  •  CA-SD-40 nitpick (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca

    It's Ben Hueso, not Huseo.

    For SD-32, Torres is known as a Baca ally while Walker is with the Negrete McLeod faction. Baca had the CDP endorsement back in November, but we all know what happened to him.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

    by kurykh on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 03:06:27 PM PDT

  •  SD-SEN: Rounds could face competition (6+ / 0-)

    in the primary, according to Kyle Trygstad.

    Potential challengers include Rep Kristi Noem, State Senate Majority Whip Larry Rhoden and and ex-state senator Bill Napoli, who would consider running if Noem didnt.

    Trygstad notes Herseth Sandlin and Brendan Johnson could both run for Dems.

    I hadnt heard news of Herseth Sandlin possibly making a comeback until now.

    Disappointing to see that Tim Johnson is "widely expected to retire", but I guess it's not surprising.

    •  On the bright side, if Johnson does retire and (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, James Allen, betelgeux

      Noem ends up running too, SHS would have a good shot at her House seat.

      But yes, if Johnson retires there's no way we win this one. Rounds is no Rick Berg and SHS is no Heidi Heitkamp. Even if he doesn't this one will be a tough race.

      •  I think SHS would be strong. (0+ / 0-)

        I hope Johnson has strong numbers right now and I hope he's going to run again, but she's pretty good too.

        "...and as I learned higher joys, so I learned neither to harm, nor to wish harm upon others." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 04:58:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I love this quote (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, pistolSO, James Allen

      “Mike had pretty strong approval ratings all through his eight years, and I think taking him on for any other Republican would be difficult,” South Dakota GOP Chairman Craig Lawrence said. “But we certainly welcome them to join in the fray if that’s what they want.”

      Translation: "Are you yahoos really sure you want to do this?"

      If Noem actually goes for the Senate race, SHS should try to get the House seat back. I don't know whether Noem would be allowed to run in both the House and Senate primaries, but I like SHS' chances against either a weakened Noem or a non-incumbent.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 04:44:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting so I'm looking at the downballot races (10+ / 0-)

    in West Virginia and between 2008 and 2012 the 3rd district actually trended more Democratic relative to the state as a whole (though obviously the whole state became more Republican). It trended .6% towards Dems on average while the 2nd trended .5% away and the first just .1% away.

    Oh, and when I went to map out the difference between Manchin and Obama the standard two percent interval basically was useless and I had to use a 5% interval to get a map like this comparing their vote shares:
     photo WVbySenateVote-Obama2012v2_zps926cc3f4.png

    In some of the coal counties in the south of the state, Manchin's vote share was nearly fifty points higher than Obama's, meaning that the vast majority of Romney voters split their tickets.

  •  Apparently Peters was preparing for a senate run (7+ / 0-)

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 06:09:11 PM PDT

  •  I'm here to remind everyone of something important (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Chachy, bumiputera

    Today is Antonin Scalia's 77th birthday.  So, be sure to pour one out for him or something, because his days on the court are numbered.

    I'll be doing Jäger shots, as it is almost as horrible as his judicial opinions.

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Ryan Dack on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 07:27:53 PM PDT

  •  Rothenberg rates MI-Sen SAFE D (0+ / 0-)

    Wow!  He's the most republican of the big three pundits, so that's a surprise.  Still, it may be a bad omen, since it was around this time in 2009 he predicted that the GOP would never win the house in 2010.

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:22:20 PM PDT

    •  his explanations (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      are quite good, and I agree with. Some blue states wouldn't mind voting for a Republican Governor, like here in New Jersey, but will never elect one to the senate. In some red states it's the total opposite. You'll see a Dem being elect Gov, but not for senate.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 08:44:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans need a few things to win (4+ / 0-)

      A wave, a fairly weak Democratic candidate and a strong candidate of their own, which is in short, a perfect storm (similar to 2010's senate race in IL). That being said, I'd only put the race at Likely Democratic, just because you never know what can happen and what will materialize.

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 09:45:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site