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9:39 AM PT: OH-Gov: Quinnipiac has some fresh numbers on the Ohio governor's race, and the first since two prominent Democrats, Rep. Tim Ryan and ex-Rep. Betty Sutton, announced they would not run. Unsurprisingly, though, little has changed since Quinnipiac's last poll back in February—it's just far too early for numbers to move very much. GOP Gov. John Kasich still leads Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, 46-37, but that's almost identical to his 45-35 edge two months ago. It's the same story with former state AG Richard Cordray: Kasich's up 45-38, compared to 44-38. FitzGerald appears far more likely to run than Cordray at this point, but both are little-known. Kasich, meanwhile, continues to sport positive job approval ratings. He's at 52-34, a major turnaround from two years ago when he stood at 30-46.

10:22 AM PT: Guns: On Wednesday, gun safety legislation pushed hard by President Obama and many Democrats failed in the Senate, where 60 votes were required for passage. The most prominent piece of legislation was the so-called Manchin-Toomey amendment, which would have expanded background checks for gun buyers. Even though it secured a 54-46 majority, that wasn't enough for it to pass in the absurdist Senate. Voting against were four Democrats: Max Baucus (MT), Mark Begich (AK), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), and Mark Pryor (AR). (Majority Leader Harry Reid also voted nay for procedural reasons.) Baucus, Begich, and Pryor all hail from red states and are up for re-election next year, though as many commentators have noted, huge majorities favor enhanced background checking in all polling on the topic.

On the "aye" side were four Republicans: Susan Collins (ME), Mark Kirk (IL), John McCain (AZ), and Pat Toomey (PA), one of the co-authors of the bill. Collins has to go before voters next year in a blue state, though if anything, she may have more to fear from a primary from the right than from a general election. Kirk will also face a difficult re-election in a blue state in 2016, and Chicago has for years been absolutely devastated by gun violence.

The most notable Democratic ayes came from Kay Hagan (NC) and Mary Landrieu (LA), who are both running for another term next year in very challenging states. The bill's fate was known before roll call was taken, though, so Hagan and Landrieu could have easily voted against, which suggests either that they had a lot of courage on this issue or that they think the NRA is a paper tiger when it comes to background checks. We'll find out in 2014. Several other red state Dems also voted in favor: Joe Donnelly (IN), Claire McCaskill (MO), and Jon Tester (MT), as did the amendment's other co-author, Joe Manchin (WV), and two senators who are retiring, Tim Johnson (SD) and Jay Rockefeller (WV).

11:54 AM PT: SC-01: Republican groups continue to abandon Mark Sanford in the wake of his admission to trespassing at his ex-wife's home in violation of their divorce agreement. On Wednesday, the NRCC announced it was cutting Sanford loose, and the Club for Growth said the same thing. On Thursday, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to none other than John Boehner, followed suit, according to Roll Call. Right now, no one wants to touch Sanford, but I'll be curious to see if the South Carolina GOP, which was responsible for part of his first TV ad, also abandons him.

Meanwhile, the exact opposite is happening on the Democratic side. Following hot on the heels of the House Majority PAC's roughly half-a-million dollar buy, the DCCC jumped in with a $205,000 expenditure of their own on behalf of Elizabeth Colbert Busch. The D-Trip's ad hits the same theme as HMP's—Sanford's abuse of office for personal gain—but takes a very different approach. Whereas HMP used wry mockery, the DCCC just flat-out whales on him. Take a look for yourself:

The black-and-white spot, with a somber voiceover and spare piano music in a minor key, features a man hiking a nature trail, a reference that hardly needs explaining. The narrator blasts Sanford, saying he "walked out on us, violated our trust—secretly used taxpayer dollars flying to Argentina, and then lied about it." Ultimately, Sanford "paid the largest ethics fine in state history" for his sins. I think national Democratic groups are scenting some real blood in the water here and are eager to go for the upset. Right now, they're outspending Republicans on the airwaves by a considerable margin, so it might just happen.

1:38 PM PT: CO-Sen/Gov: PPP's new Colorado poll is out, and it's good news for Democrats. More soon.

1:43 PM PT: P.S. This is hilarious:

Observant #wapo reader notes striking similarity between Sanford signs http://t.co/... and Argentine flag  http://t.co/...
@ktumulty via web
And note that Sanford is indeed using a new design.

1:55 PM PT: DE-Sen: The most notable bit of news in Abby Livingston's Delaware installment in Roll Call's ongoing Farm Team series is that not-a-witch Christine O'Donnell's former campaign manager says she isn't ruling out a return engagement in 2014. Sen. Chris Coons, of course, handily dispatched the lunatic O'Donnell after she upset establishment choice Mike Castle in the GOP primary back in 2010. (The seat is up again so soon because the race was a special election to fill the final four years of Joe Biden's term.) Of course, O'Donnell would have no hope, but she'd likely garner enough circus sideshow attention to give Coons a headache. So I suspect he'd prefer to run against a Some Dude, but at least O'Donnell would be great for raising money off of.

2:03 PM PT: MN-06: Looks like things are only going to get worse for Michele Bachmann. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that her former chief of staff, Andy Parrish, "is expected to tell an Iowa Senate ethics panel that her 2012 presidential campaign made improper payments to its state chairman." Parrish had previously only been known as "Witness A," according to the committee. This investigation comes on top of the ongoing congressional ethics inquiry into Bachmann's campaign finances, which the Strib reported a day earlier appears to be widening in scope.

2:13 PM PT: NY-St. Sen: Amusingly, for the first time in my life, I was called to participate in a poll last week. Quinnipiac wanted my opinions on a variety of New York state political topics, and I was more than happy to give them. For once, I was actually answering questions, not just writing about them! But now we've come full circle, because I did want to point something out about their new poll. Quinnipiac asked a very awkwardly worded question about the power-sharing arrangement in the state Senate, where five renegade Democrats have aligned with minority Republicans to hand control over to the GOP:

As you may be aware, state senate Republicans and five state senate Democrats have announced a coalition where they will share control of the New York State Senate, deciding which bills come up for a vote. Do you think this coalition leadership of the New York State Senate is a good way to create effective government or a power grab by a handful of elected officials?
I didn't like this phrasing when it was first asked back in December, because it sounded too much like, "Do you think bipartisanship is good?" And indeed, back then, "effective government" led "power grab" by a 53-30 margin. But Albany is just too much even for this tilted framing, and after months of the same old shameful corruption, New Yorkers are once again wise to the legislature, because "power grab" is now ahead 50-35. (You can guess how I answered the question.) Anyhow, that's a 28-point drop in four months, which is very sizable but, in the end, all too predictable. The only question is, does Gov. Andrew Cuomo still want to be associated with these losers?

2:18 PM PT: NH-Sen/Gov: Count Ovide Lamontagne out for 2014. Last year's Republican gubernatorial nominee and, the cycle before that, Senate hopeful, is moving down to DC to become chief legal counsel at Americans United for Life, an anti-abortion advocacy group. It sounds like Ovide is keeping his options open for the future (he's keeping a house in New Hampshire), but if he disappears into the Beltway for two years, he's gonna get forgotten at home. And anyhow, I don't think this sort of zealously anti-choice credential will play very well back in the Granite State.

2:43 PM PT: By the way, the House Majority PAC has now filed their required independent expenditure report with the FEC, and their initial television buy is for $107,000. That's a lot smaller than the $400,000 to $600,000 run that was reported Wednesday, but these kinds of purchases are often made in installments, so I'd expect further reports soon. Note that they're also spending $19,000 on mailers attacking Sanford, too.

2:51 PM PT: FL-13: While ultra-veteran GOP Rep. Bill Young almost defines the term "political fixture," attorney Jessica Ehrlich is going to take another shot at unseating him. Ehrlich lost 58-42 last year, but it was actually the second-weakest performance of Young's four-decade-plus career. And Ehrlich has a few things going for her. For one, as she notes, she's getting a much earlier start this time; last cycle, thanks in part to redistricting, she only entered the race with seven months to go. For another, Young is always a threat to retire, and if he does, Ehrlich would have a leg up thanks to her head start.

There's also the outside shot that a pending lawsuit based on Florida's "Fair Districts" amendments to the state constitution could shake up the lines and possibly yield a bluer seat as well. Even if that doesn't happen, FL-13 would be a hot Democratic pickup opportunity if Young were to call it quits, seeing as Obama actually carried the district, 50-49.

3:04 PM PT: KY-Sen: GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell is up with yet another ad, reportedly backed by a "six figure" buy, in which, once again, he moans about mean old libruhls spying on his campaign and saying racist things about his wife. (And also, comparing him to Al Qaeda? That's a new one on me.) I mean, McConnell couldn't ask for a better set of assholes than the schmucks behind Progress Kentucky, right? How lucky for him.

Of course, Mitch certainly isn't allergic to acting like a jagoff himself. Check out this sneering, obnoxious "meme"-type graphic he posted on his own Facebook page. What a jackass.

3:22 PM PT: House: Writing at FiveThirtyEight, Derek Willis offers an interesting take on the recent batch of first quarter fundraising reports that all federal candidates had to file. Specifically, Willis looks at which incumbents received the most money from other incumbents, viewing this metric as a proxy for how vulnerable the recepients are in terms of their re-election prospects. And it looks like it's indeed a pretty good measure, since most of the the top 11 names he identifies would get slotted into a competitive category on just about anyone's race ratings list. It's certainly not a perfect system, and there are some vulnerable folks missing, but it's definitely worth considering.

At the other end of the spectrum, Kyle Trygstad takes a look at which House incumbents raised very little in the first quarter, triggering some more of the usual retirement speculation. None of the names he cites will come as a surprise, and most are in their 80s.

4:03 PM PT: CO-Gov/Sen: PPP tested just about every imaginable Republican against both Gov. John Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark Udall in their new Colorado poll, but the results don't look especially inspiring for the GOP no matter whom they put forth. First, a word from Tom Jensen on each incumbent's job approval scores:

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady, though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents, similar to his overall numbers.

Hickenlooper had done a very good job at appearing un-partisan, but you had to figure that couldn't last forever, especially after Democrats secured complete control over the legislature in November and, as Tom alludes, were able to start advancing their agenda. The fact that Hick remains in positive territory, though, is very good news, since it undermines chicken little-type fears about the consequences of Dems holding the state government trifecta.

In any event, Democrats lead every single head-to-head matchup, and almost all of them by double digits:

Republican Hick Udall
Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez 50-43 48-41
Rep. Cory Gardner 51-40 49-39
SoS Scott Gessler 50-40 50-37
Ex-LG Jane Norton 50-39 49-38
Treas. Walker Stapleton 49-38 50-37
AG John Suthers 49-39 50-38
Ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo 52-41 51-49
Rep. Scott Tipton 50-40 50-37

At least as important as the margins, though, is the fact that (a) both Udall and Hickenlooper are right around the 50 percent mark and (b) it doesn't matter which Republican faces them. Indeed, no one even really seems to have any idea whom the GOP will put up next year, since nobody appears to be very interested in either race. And with numbers like these, it's hard to blame them.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:00:08 AM PDT

  •  CA-16 (13+ / 0-)

    Jim Costa for marriage equality. http://www.towleroad.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:35:47 AM PDT

    •  That's nice. (0+ / 0-)

      Is the entire Dem delegation of CA for it?

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:39:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  think we're still waiting on vargas yeah? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:41:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Vargas is to the right of Mary Landrieu. We can do (10+ / 0-)

          much better in his district. Pro-life, anti-marriage equality, anti-single payer healthcare. He needs to go away :/

          21, Male, Latino-Spanish, OK-1 (Tulsa: The Art Deco, Terracotta, and Cultural Gem of Green Country!); Currently studying in Madrid, Spain

          by gigantomachyusa on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 07:58:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Vargas signed the amicus brief (7+ / 0-)

          asking the Supreme Court to overturn DOMA.  Thus, he didn't make The Hill's list of Democrats who oppose same-sex marriage.

          As for Vargas' true beliefs, I found this summary of a debate last year between Vargas and his opponent:

          “I do believe there’s a separation of church and state, and a very strong one,” Vargas said. “The government should not baptize people or have any involvement with issues you deal with with your own self, your church, your group. I voted against Proposition 8 and I’m totally against the Defense of Marriage Act because it’s government deciding what marriage is. I do respect, agree with and accept marriage between Gay and Lesbian people, between a man and a man or a woman and a woman, if a church or a group decides to do it.”

          But, Vargas added, “Do I think the government should marry people? No, I don’t. I think there should be a strict separation between government and church. That being said, obviously we do have civil marriages. I voted twice against the [California marriage-equality] bill when it was simply the government marrying people. I wasn’t there for the vote on the Leno bill [would have enacted marriage equality but given churches the option to refuse], but I would have voted for it because it made the distinction that the government isn’t marrying people, it’s simply recognizing marriage — which I’m in favor of.”

          As frustrating as that kind of logic can be, Vargas is definitely closer to our side than someone like Joe Manchin or Mike McIntyre, and I think it's important to note the difference.
  •  Newtown Really Created A No-Win Environment..... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    ....for Democrats.  It wasn't politically (or morally) possible for them to respond by doing absolutely nothing on guns, but it was clear within a few weeks after the shooting that the NRA was gonna win.  Heidi Heitkamp's comments on ABC's This Week struck me as the tipping point where momentum was lost. Hard to assign any blame here as things were handled about as well as could be expected, but the worst-case scenario has nonetheless been realized as the sleeping giant has been awakened and mobilized, but the Democrats have nothing at all to show for taking on the NRA.

    The only remaining question is whether NRA subservience will even produce that coveted NRA endorsement for Begich, Pryor, Baucus, et. al.

    •  Of course they'll endorse Begich (8+ / 0-)

      He has an A rating and none of his votes puts that in question.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:38:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Which sleeping giant? (15+ / 0-)

      The NRA? Bleh... I doubt that will mean much.  After all, they won pretty easy.  their members will be pretty complacent and overconfident come election day.  It won't be any different than before.

      The rest of America, though?  That's a question mark.  The obtuse and insulting manner in which the NRA bought out Senators against common sense regulations were pretty offensive.  What happens the next time there will be a mass shooting?  What happens when that shooter might have been stopped by background checks?

      Even conservative Ron Fournier thinks that the right won the battle, but may be losing the war.  Joe Scarborough thinks the same.

      It's a bad loss, certainly, but it's a question of how our side deals with that loss.  If we curl up with our tail between our legs, then, yes, it will be bad for us.  If we use this as our Alamo, then something good might result from it.

      There really is no reason to fear the NRA.  Their power is amplified by the geezers in congress who still live in the 20th century.  If the NRA were actually challenged, they would lose, and there would be few political repercussions.  But, it requires someone taking that chance, and conservadems are notorious chickenshits.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 07:14:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I Suspect It Will Take....... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, gigantomachyusa

        .....a coordinated mass shooting with multiple shooters and hundreds or even thousands of firearms fatalities before gun control becomes a high-intensity voting issue for proponents.  Polls indicate that Newtown wasn't enough, at least for the sustained period necessary for the momentum to change public policy.  The intensity appears to remain with the gun rights supporters for now and I suspect it'll take a lot to change that equation.  I think declining overall rates of gun violence are unhelpful to the cause of gun control supporters as the threat of violence appears to simply be less for most voters than it was 20 years ago.

        •  The NRA got lucky... (6+ / 0-)

          We've been suffering from mass casualty situations every two or three months.  This last event was a bombing, so it didn't hurt the NRA's cause.  It also gave them media cover for an unpopular vote.  The previous even, a university mass shooting in Florida, was thwarted.  The lack of events allowed the Newtown stuff to fade.  I suspect that we will be back to our normal pattern soon enough which could bring the issue up again.

          It's not going to simply go away, because the mass shooters aren't going away.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 07:33:38 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I agree w/you & strongly think time is on our side (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

        I'm a firm believer that we're going to see more and better Democrats in power over time and especially after the next re-map, as demographic shift continues benefiting us.  So come the next decade, we'll start seeing more movemetn on a lot of stuff, including gun control.  People of color across the board are largely anti-gun.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:32:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I said this Monday night (13+ / 0-)

      and I'll mention it again. Gun control advocates need to go the ballot initiative route. Blue states with red chambers and/or governor. Purple states with with red chambers. Like Florida. North Carolina is not a reality cause the state constitution doesn't allow initiatives. So ppl in NC are gonna be stuck with that far right wing gerrymandered legislature for awhile.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:20:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  NC currently has strictest gun laws in the South (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inkpen, MichaelNY, pademocrat

        Requirement for permit in order to purchase guns and according to this site NC does require background checks before purchasing handguns at gun shows.

        •  Oops (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, MichaelNY

          according to this site...

          And county sheriffs are supposed to monitor gun sales and ownership.  However, my uncle who lives in rural North Carolina had hundreds of guns, assault weapons, and sold them illegally, and the county sheriff knew about it and didn't do anything to stop him.  I suspect enforcement of gun laws is like that in most rural areas.... ironically the Tennessee authorities got my uncle for something else and he's in prison now.

          •  Prison bound (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            psychicpanda, MichaelNY

            Some folks just seem to keep doing stuff until they get in prison, like they were heading home all along. Like some alkies and drug addicts I've known, they just gonna do it no matter treatment programs or whatever.

            My sympathies to the rest of your family, who must have suffered along the way and even now.

            •  We're pretty distant (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, Woody, MichaelNY

              He is technically my 2nd uncle, or something, and only by marriage, so thankfully we're not blood relatives.  He lives way back in the sticks of Western NC and I've only met him a few times.  Thank you for your sympathies, though - I have a lot of relatives, cousins and 2nd cousins, that live near him, and he has made life difficult for some of them.  I also have more than one relative up there that died (when they were kids) due to a gun accident (playing with guns, etc.).  The gun culture is very strong in a lot of parts of this country.

        •  Well thank you for sharing that with me (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          psychicpanda, MichaelNY

          I didn't know that. Im assuming that was passed by a Democratic Governor, Jim Hunt most likely and a Dem legislature.

          But I won't be at all surprise if this current legislature and Governor do everything they can to erase all of that, and make gun laws laxed.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:40:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Disagree (10+ / 0-)

      Mary Landrieu, the only Democrat up for reelection from a red state (I consider NC to be more purple than red now) voted for background checks AND gun trafficking (which was NRA supported and still failed 58-42).

      I actually do think that the AWB, along with a multitude of other things, contributed to Democratic losses in 1994. That said, I don't think the same political calculus exists today.

      I think those who voted against the measures, both Dems and GOPers, made a poor political miscalculation in the sense that (1) background checksa are far more palatable to Americans than the AWB is or was, (2) America is a different country 20 years after 1994 and (3) you are now seeing a much stronger political apparatus mobilizing in favor of gun safety measures, backed up by lots of hard dollars.

      I think for the gun safety movement, they should do 2 things. (1) Pour gobs of money into Louisiana and prove to the rest of the Democrats that you can be from a conservative, gun-friendly state (unofficial state motto: Sportsman's paradise) and support gun safety measure. (2) Target 1 or 2 purple/blue state GOP senators in 2016 on this issue, and watch them go down in flames, while supporting Pat Toomey.

      If Mary Landrieu wins in 2014, and say Ayotte & Johnson lose in 2016 while Toomey survives any primary, then I think the clout and power of these groups will skyrocket. You pass legislation with two things: lots of money and political clout.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:31:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Here's an article on the fallacy of NRA arguments (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

      It's a good look at why the NRA's argument is so disingenuous and absurd, and why they even misrepresent the implications of Heller, a narrow 5-4 decision by a right-wing court that only modestly established gun rights in self-defense of the home.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:39:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  question about seniority system (0+ / 0-)

    does it seem that all too often, people reach the ranking member or chairman slot long after their most productive years? This isn't a new thing either and was especially true on the Rules committee (Smith, Colmer, Madden, Delaney and Pepper back in the day).

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:40:14 AM PDT

  •  KY-Sen: McConnell ad bemoans (6+ / 0-)

    "nasty" Democratic attacks. Can't say I think people care. I mean it's not as if he's some beloved person in Kentucky. He's quite the opposite.

    http://wapo.st/...

  •  OH Gov: Kasich approval up (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Leads in horse race, though under 50%.

    Though he spent much of the last few years fighting low approval rates, a new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio finds 52% of voters now approve of Gov. John Kasich (R) and he holds solid leads two potential Democratic challengers.

    Kasich tops up Ed Fitzgerald, 46% to 37%, and beats Richard Cordray (D), 45% to 38%.

    Keep the TVA public.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 06:44:05 AM PDT

  •  NY-Mayor: Quinn secures more (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    high profile endorsements.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

  •  Strange Bedfellows: Guns and CISPA. (4+ / 0-)

    On consideration of CISPA, 4 Republicans joined nearly every Democrat in opposition:

    Walter B. Jones    R    NC-3
    Tom McClintock    R    CA-4
    Dana Rohrabacher    R    CA-48
    Steve Stockman    R    TX-36
    Steve Stockman!  

    The Democrats supporting consideration:

    Ron Barber    D    AZ-2
    Jim Costa    D    CA-16
    Luis V. Gutierrez    D    IL-4
    Jim Matheson    D    UT-4
    Mike McIntyre    D    NC-7
    Bill Owens    D    NY-21
    C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger    D    MD-2
    Brad Schneider    D    IL-10
    Meanwhile, the "Burr Proposal On Veterans Gun Ownership Rights" got all 45 Republicans, 9 Democrats, Angus King, and...Bernie Sanders.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 07:32:11 AM PDT

    •  Not that surprised about Sanders (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Vermont is a very gun-happy rural state. Isn't Howard Dean pro-gun too?

      •  Yup. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Kind of perfect politically...

        Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:24:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And people wonder why I hate Matheson? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      People love internet privacy in Utah, especially the ability of a family to keep their own privacy walls up.

      He could've voted against CISPA with no political problem. Yet he supports it anyway.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:06:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You've got to let that go (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, jncca, gabjoh, Skaje, HoosierD42, MichaelNY

        Seriously. When other users have become too much of a one trick pony, it tends to start making people annoyed.

        Your commentary on Utah is great, but you should branch out a bit and discuss other stuff (without relating it back to Utah, which is what you usually do) and without constantly hitting on Matheson.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:11:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  "hitting on Matheson"? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY

          Haha, that's the first time I've heard it termed that way.

          I would speak more on non-Utah politics but A) I don't feel comfortable commenting beyond the basics on other state's politics, as I'm not as familiar on those political environments, and B) I feel that Utah politics is neglected most of the time because it's seen as unimportant (it is, but I still feel isolated in covering topics, as I'm one of the few Kossacks from Utah).

          You make a good point though, I'll refrain from posting Utah political news every day, and I'll stop bashing Matheson (or at least limit the bashing to when he really deserves it). I'm just very passionate about my state, and I like to let people know what's going on. I have been trying to branch out to Colorado (and to a lesser extent, Arizona), at least. I just don't know the political news/resources there as well as I know the Utah political news/blogs/resources.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:22:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  He's as good as you're goning to get with (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, lordpet8, HoosierD42, MichaelNY, naraht

        the current lines. Sorry. Call you legislators and tell them to stop trying to pizza him out, and draw a Dem vote-sink, and then you can get someone more progressive. Would you rather have Matheson, that sometimes votes you way, or a Republican that never votes your way?

        Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

        by WisJohn on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:21:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What would the bill have done? n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:58:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The issue is summarized (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        here.  Doesn't seem unreasonable, but I don't really know the details.  Anyway, still an unusual coalition.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:36:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

          I wonder why there was so much opposition. I wouldn't actively support this, because I favor gun control generally, but singling out veterans who are having trouble with their finances sure doesn't seem equitable.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:07:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Pyrrhic Victory (14+ / 0-)

    I just thought I'd make a comment after yesterday's votes on gun safety reforms. I don't believe that this is the end of this fight. The gun industry has "won" this battle, but I don't believe it can truly be considered a win. From my perspective, it seems to be a Pyrrhic victory that has done lasting harm to both the gun lobby and Republican Senators. The NRA has had great damage done to their public brand, hopefully shifting attention away from them and more toward the gun industry itself the next time this issue comes up.

    Furthermore, we are now properly mobilizing a gun safety lobby to counteract the funding and actions of the gun lobby. Gabby Giffords and Mark Kelly have pledged to raise $20 million for their new PAC, Americans for Responsible Solutions, to match the funding of the NRA in the 2014 elections. I fully anticipate that Mike Bloomberg will be flooding money into Mayors Against Illegal Guns in an effort to take down Republican Senators who blocked even the most basic and common sense of reforms. I wish we could get Republican House members on the record with a vote on background checks, though Speaker Boehner would surely prevent such a vote from ever taking place.

    The one vulnerable Republican Senator running for re-election in 2014 who voted to block these reforms is, of course, Mitch McConnell. I'm hopeful that these advocacy groups will flood the state and frame McConnell as the crime enabler that he is. Someone has to be held accountable for this behavior in the Senate, so who better than the head of the party that blocked every single gun safety reform? ALG is going to need proper outside support if she's going to run, and that will also require a lot of money for advertising to cancel McConnell's advertising out. Framing ALG as the tough-on-crime candidate could play well, especially if McConnell is being taken down at the same time.

    At this point, I think we need to approach gun safety reform on a state-by-state basis. It's not certain that we can get any other legislatures to act on gun safety reform at this point, so the best course of action going forward is probably through the ballot box, specifically through ballot initiatives. We need to push these five reforms in every state that offers ballot initiatives. I should note that CNN polling has shown that all five of these proposals have broad support nationwide:

    1.) Require a background check on anyone attempting to purchase a gun to determine if they’ve been convicted of a felony.
    2.) Place a ban on the manufacture, sale, and possession of semi-automatic assault weapons.
    3.) Place a ban on the sale and possession of high-capacity clips which allow guns to shoot more than 10 bullets before they need to be reloaded.
    4.) Prevent convicted felons and those with mental health problems from owning guns.
    5.) Require gun owners to register their guns with their local government.
    It would also be interesting to see if candidates start campaigning on these issues if they appear on the same ballot as that candidate. It could be an interesting wedge issue with Republicans, and I think it could continue to create a political environment in which we keep putting pressure on Republicans. I think it could work. What do you guys think?

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 07:49:57 AM PDT

    •  Until Gun Control Advocates Start Showing...... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, gabjoh, ChadmanFL

      .....voting booth intensity to match their polling numbers on these gun issues, the NRA will keep winning.  At least up to this point, the only side who bases their vote on gun issues are those on the gun rights side.  Perhaps that will change, but vulnerable Democrats sure don't seem to think we're there yet.

    •  I noted yesterday that the Brady bill (10+ / 0-)

      wasnt introduced until 1987 and it didnt pass for another 6 years. And I believe that bill focused on background checks and had bipartisan support, including from President Reagan.

      So while I understand the frustration about how something couldnt pass after Newtown, I think the reality is it will be a long struggle to get even expanded background checks enacted, but I think eventually it will happen. But it will take a while.

    •  How strange it all is (6+ / 0-)

      I wrote that I thought then-Rep. Giffords was headed for the vice presidency or even the presidency the night before the Tucson shooting. And here she is two years later, fighting the good fight, struggling to convince lawmakers that it really is O.K. for them to establish the same protections for gun purchases that exist for renting an apartment or taking a job.

      •  I feel like it's pretty likely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Giffords would have run in the 2012 Senate race, and could have possibly overperformed just enough to win it.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:45:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She couldn't have campaigned (0+ / 0-)

          And in all reality she is not well enough to really handle the work as a member of congress. It is sad, but she is still struggling to speak, let alone legislate on behalf of her state.

          •  if she hadn't been shot (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, betelgeux, jncca, MichaelNY

            It's hard to say whether she would have done better than Carmona did. She had a history of overachieving and probably would not have made some of the rookie mistakes Carmona made, but she wouldn't have had the outsider hook he had either. Unlike Carmona she would have had a record to attack, although she withstood the 2010 red wave (I know, Machine Gun Kelly is an idiot) running on that same record in a district only slightly to the left of the rest of the state.

            SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:56:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I think its a good chance she could have won (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          if she wasn't shot. There was reports saying she was preparing for a run, anticipating Kyl retiring. In which he did.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:21:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Pretty good post, but you lost me at... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY, nimh

      >>I'm hopeful that these advocacy groups will flood the state and frame McConnell as the crime enabler that he is<<

      Do you know how well gun rights poll in Kentucky? That almost certainly won't be the issue that takes McConnell down.

      •  Background Checks (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        Background checks have ~90% support among the American public. I'm doubtful that Kentucky deviates too greatly from the country on this particular issue. I suppose I can be generous and say that it might only have, say, 70% support in Kentucky at-large. That's still a massive amount of support that can be used as a wedge against McConnell, as it should be. This is an issue that has universal support throughout the country, and there's no way for McConnell to defend his actions. I don't think an assault weapons ban or magazine restrictions would necessarily serve us well as wedge issues in Kentucky, but I'm certain background checks will.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:36:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Registry. (9+ / 0-)

      I don't see what the issue is with a gun registry. In this country, citizens have to register to vote, register your cars, your dogs, etc. In my house in rural Wisconsin, we have about 10 shotguns (we used to hunt a lot more than we do now). We support tough gun control as well. These crazy NRA-types give people like us a bad name. We have never been members of the NRA.

      We would not have any issues with registering our guns. I don't see why people are opposed to a registry.

      Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

      by WisJohn on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:10:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because then they can take them away (0+ / 0-)

        easily. And then what is the Second Amendment even good for?

        Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:26:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ah, crap, ignore (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, MichaelNY

          and hide-rate that if you can; that gets too much into policy,  which is a "not here" kind of thing. (Also the fact that my views on this particular issue pretty sharply diverge with the other people on this website.)

          Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

          by gabjoh on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:31:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No need for hide rates (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, nimh

            On DKE we're pretty good about just letting things go and not pursuing derailing discussions once we realize the conversation has veered that way.  So no need to hide rate, and you really don't want that either, since hidden comments attract their own kind of attention.

  •  McConnell's End Zone Dance (18+ / 0-)

    Senator McConnell seems to be doing something of an end zone dance on his Facebook page. I don't think I've known of a more despicable contemporary politician, other than maybe Dick Cheney. ALG seriously needs to run and take this guy down.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:08:32 AM PDT

  •  Would Democrats be better suited to a (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, SaoMagnifico, betelgeux

    talking filibuster? After all the Democrats seem to be slightly younger, and in slightly better physical shape, so if a talking filibuster was instated and the Dems were in the minority (assume that for this scenario an equal amount of young and old Dems were defeated), the Dems might have an advantage here.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:20:21 AM PDT

    •  We should have talking filibustered our own bill.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacques Kallis, WisJohn

      Did it for days, even weeks if we could, to keep the issue in the news and the pressure up.  I would have done it!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:26:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  No Filibuster (6+ / 0-)

      The filibuster is a reasonably unconstitutional rule that frays the democratic process and leads to incessant and unnecessary legislative decay. It is a fundamentally conservative procedure that has far more purpose for Republicans than Democrats. Furthermore, Republicans are certain to abuse the filibuster at every possible turn, whereas Democrats are sure to use it sparingly. It's also completely useless when Republicans employ reconciliation, which is how they would likely employ much of their draconian policies if they regained control of the Senate. A talking filibuster would be preferable to the current "silent" filibuster, but it would be best if we had no filibuster at all. Simple legislation and nominations deserve a simple majority up-or-down vote.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:34:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We probably don't need a debate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        On the merits of the filibuster here.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:48:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think the filibuster rule... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, ArkDem14, R30A, MichaelNY

          Absolutely has electoral implications. Scott Brown campaigned for the Senate to be the "41st vote". Having a 60-vote requirement in the Senate completely changes the dynamics of Senate races; if the Republicans were hopelessly deep in the minority in 2010, would Brown's victory have been a big deal at all? I mean, I would argue that Brown winning in Massachusetts set the table for the red tide in November, because it was a big victory for the Republicans (allowed them to filibuster again, which is, like, their favorite thing to do) and it showed the Tea Party that both no race was safe and each race could make a difference in the balance of power.

          So when we talk about filibuster reform, we should do so mindful of the fact that we're changing that 60-vote dynamic, and that's going to change the way candidates for office and the groups that back them do their mental math.

  •  OH-Sen 2016: State Rep. Bob Hagan in (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.vindy.com/...

    “I know [Sen. Portman is] going to raise money from the NRA — who owns him, and lobbyists,” Hagan said. “He can raise all the money he wants, but I’m going to raise hell.”
    As a Youngstown State University alum, I'm familiar with Hagan.  He's an...interesting character.  We're going to need someone far stronger to knock off Portman, though.
    •  Looking at Hagan's Wiki page (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He seems to be a slightly unhinged guy. Wish we had at least one or two politicians like him one either side in Utah. We have pretty boring politicians.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:12:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  heh (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        From his page:

        "In 2010 Hagan was assaulted at the Lemon Grove, a bar located in Youngstown, Ohio. He was punched in the face after a verbal altercation with a fellow customer, and was treated with several stitches at the hospital."

        He was 60 years old at the time.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:40:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I remember when that incident went down.  The most ironic thing is that the Lemon Grove (which has since relocated a few doors down) generally attracts a more peaceful, hipster crowd...and one that generally agrees with Hagan's politics.

          But he's a colorful guy.

  •  The Old South Virginia "Shad Planking" event (6+ / 0-)

    continued its decay into complete irrelevance yesterday: http://bluevirginia.us/...
    This event used to be a must-go for candidates in Virginia, but as the geographic power base and demographics of VA changed, it lost its power.  Also, Shad Planking has had confederate supporters attend and wave the CSA battle flag like it's 1863.

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:04:09 AM PDT

    •  I have a book called (4+ / 0-)

      "The Shad Treatment", a veiled account of the Virginia establishment's successful pushback against Henry Howell, the populist 1970s candidate for governor.  (I think Howell was before his time; if he were around and running today he might have a much better shot against a GOP conservative).

      If I still lived in VA I might have liked to go there sometime if it were more politically balanced; at least the food must have been abundant and good.  But listening to Ken Cuccinelli and Confederate nostalgists might have taken away my appetite.  For political food-based gatherings I'll stay here where there is an abundant supply of crabs, Old Bay, Natty Boh, and Democrats.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:18:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I saw one of the Lt. Gov. nominees. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I work as a library courier, and the Wakefield library is in the Wakefield Foundation building where all the Lt. Gov (or at least all the Republican ones) nominees were meeting with some Republican organization.  I've seen George Allen there 3 times in the past (sadly).  This time it was some guy named Steve Martin, who sadly was not the comedian, but some dorky looking guy.  The turnout for this looked very mediocre as opposed to the other times I've been in Wakefield while it was going on.  (The last 4 years.)

      There were very few people there.

  •  Outgoing Utah GOP Chairman (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    http://www.deseretnews.com/...

    Since the GOP is dominant in Utah, it's interesting to see what Thomas Wright, their outgoing chairman, could do next. He's very popular, a good organizer, and reportedly very ambitious, so he has a variety of plausible options, all of which he says he's open to considering. I'd actually be more wary of him running against Matheson than I am of Mia Love. Wright knows Utah politics, and he'd know how to hit Matheson on his weak spots.

    Though my guess is that he's going to go for governor; he seems to want to bring Republicans together rather than go head-to-head with legislative fights.

    Though I am glad that he wasn't quite good enough to topple Matheson, heh.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:08:18 AM PDT

  •  Angus King: So I have an answer... (11+ / 0-)

    for those who say King does not vote much different than a true Democrat would. He was the only Senator in the Northeast besides Ayotte to vote against the assault weapons ban. He did support the high capacity magazine ban. But does anyone doubt Pingree would have supported both?

    (granted, on every other vote, King's been good so far).

    The other interesting vote: Mark Warner voted against both the high capacity magazine ban and the assault weapon ban. Tim Kaine did not vote against either. I never thought Kaine was more liberal than Warner, but I guess so.

  •  WATN: Allen West vs. college student (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    This controversy doesn't particularly make anyone look good:

    A student at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) has filed a complaint with police saying she feels threatened by former Rep. Allen West in response to Facebook and Twitter messages from the Republican firebrand, according to West Palm Beach ABC affiliate WPBP.

    West posted a stern warning on his Facebook Wednesday morning after he said FAU students were harassing his wife, a member of the school's board of trustees by going to her office, stalking her at board meetings, and sent letters to her company headquarters.

    ...

    West's wife Angela is a financial adviser for Raymond James. She previously said FAU students came to her office uninvited to tell her to oppose a private prison contractor's large donation to the school, according to The Palm Beach Post.The private prison company, GEO Group, that made the donation of $6 million dollars was going to have its name on the school's football stadium. After significant uproar the company decide against the making the donation.

    Angela West said when she and the students disagreed they called on her to resign from board and when asked to leave they said "oh, you think you're as tough as your husband." West's co-workers agreed with her account of the incident.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:37:05 AM PDT

  •  Simon Jackman updated his ideal points (9+ / 0-)

    for the current House last night.  He also charted them against 2008 district numbers.  But now we have 2012 district numbers!  So here's the chart:

     photo 113thideallargerfw_zps515d1ab6.png

    Thoughts:

    1. Yeah, Gary Miller doesn't seem to be trying, does he?

    2. Rick Nolan seems to be the most liberal swing-seat Democrat by a fair margin.

    3. Most of the swing/red seat Democrats have nearly indistinguishable ideal points.  I'm sure other people have noticed those same few names in one dissenting vote after another.

    4. The Republicans are so close together they're hard to read.  Let's focus on them:

     photo 113thRepublicansfw_zpsb383c51c.png

    There might be an interesting split right around WA-03, which is something like the R+3 median district in the House.  

    Past there, Republicans probably feel zero electoral pressure, regardless of whether Obama got 20% or 30% in their district, and can vote as they like.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:50:34 AM PDT

    •  And I don't know if I've ever seen (13+ / 0-)

      Stephen Lynch as a liberal standout before.  He has the 9th most liberal record in the House!  It's like he was running in some sort of competitive Democratic primary in a liberal state or something.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:54:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  didn't sawolf or someone determine WA-03 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, MichaelNY

      is in fact the exact median district?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:55:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, Matheson is the most conservative House Dem (0+ / 0-)

      By far. I get that he has to be, but still, that's a bit ridiculous.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:10:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  he probably has the most Republican district (6+ / 0-)

        even taking into account Romney's overperformance.  It's reasonable for him.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:13:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, but (0+ / 0-)

          There's some issues that Utahns don't care about that he could be a little more liberal/moderate on.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:50:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  You mean economic issues? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            From my visits to Utah I've always had the feeling the people in that state are really only hard line on social issues.  I know most of my family out there are very conservative on social issues but moderate to a bit liberal on economic issues and foreign policy.  It seems like republicans win there because social issues trump all else and they distrust most democrats due to the national party being well left on those issues.  I suppose enough trust Matheson because he's carved out a niche for himself in the state separate from the national democratic party.

            •  What I'm getting at (0+ / 0-)

              Is I don't get the feeling most folks in Utah hate poor people.  It's not like much of the southeast where it seems a good % of voters just outright hate poor people and consider them leeches and "welfare queens."  In Utah my experience has always been that most people deeply care for the less fortunate, but more or less consider government less effective than private charity.  I believe Utah has by far the highest rate of charitable giving of any state.  I've long thought that if democrats can better tailor their message in Utah towards economic equality they could be more successful there.

              •  Mormonism may explain that in part (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, Gygaxian

                "Help thy neighbor help thyself" they say, and the Mormon church has its own, well-run welfare programs financed by tithing.

                However, this private/religious generosity doesn't always seem to extend entirely to gentiles or the national public.  The contrast between what we heard last year about Mitt Romney's private generosity versus the agenda he would have pursued if elected seems to encapsulate that.

                Say what you will about Harry Reid, but he's one Mormon who has worked very hard to see that all have a chance to share economic and social benefits.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:11:37 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  True, Harry Reid is one of my heroes (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                  Even though he's a moderate-to-conservative old man who seems too enamored of his own power; he still seems geniunely concerned with the poor, minorities (remember; he endorsed gay marriage) and giving everyone a fair shake. Of course, it doesn't hurt that he trolls everyone who believes that you must be a conservative Republican to be an active Mormon.

                  And I agree on the private vs public thing, with one caveat; if Mormons see their neighbor or someone of their religion in need, they'll open their wallets to help; look at the overwhelming support for higher education funding in Utah. And the higher support for immigration reform. Matheson stayed on the sidelines for that, mainly because it was an issue that could arouse enough passion in Utahns to get him thrown out of office, but I think that'll change.

                  What I mean by being more liberal on issues that Utahns don't care as vehemently about is like CISPA and SOPA; he could vote against those with no problem,  but he supported both. And he could've voted in favor of a higher minimum wage, Utahns either don't care about that, or (in the more liberal parts of his district) are actively in favor of it.

                  I'll still vote for him, but I just think he doesn't have to be quite as cautious as he is.

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:33:41 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I understand that studies show (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Xenocrypt

                politically conservative citizens spend more on charity than politically liberal ones. Part of that might be because liberals tend to be poorer, on average, but also because conservatives are more likely to be members of churches and tithe. Giving charitable donations can be associated with a conservative attitude, that individuals should give to charity because that's the right thing to do, and should not be taxed because that's using force.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 09:24:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  On the right side of the diagonal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Way I see it, you should be able to draw a diagonal line from the bottom right of the chart (extremely liberal Rep in an extremely liberal district) to the top left of the chart (extremely conservative Rep in an extremely conservative district). Representatives who fall clearly to the top/right side of that diagonal are voting more conservatively than their district calls for; representatives who fall clearly to the bottom/left side are voting more liberally than  their district calls for.

        In that sense, Matheson is already sticking his neck out more than any other Dem other than Rahall. If anything, this chart seems like a reason to praise him, not to slam him. It's apparently Dems like Green, Eshoo, Richmond and Peters who should be criticized, but I hear little if anything about them.

    •  Yeah, Nolan has been a pleasant surprise (8+ / 0-)

      All I know about the Iron Range is what Bob Dylan has said about it in interviews (he's from there originally), and it didn't sound like the sort of territory that would support a CPC member. Cool for us.

    •  Incidentally. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, wwmiv, MichaelNY

      The confidence intervals are quite wide for the most liberal Democrats.  Which is a fancy way of saying that the liberal side of the Democratic caucus has mostly voted similarly, so there's not a lot of evidence from the roll calls about who is more liberal than who.  So don't put too much stock in the relative differences on the low end.

      The confidence intervals are quite a bit narrower on the conservative side, presumably because the conservative side of the Republicans have been split by more votes.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:36:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Where's Scott Peters? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

      by IllinoyedR on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 12:07:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  You can make him out more easily (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in this version with a smaller font.  He's a bit below Bill Owens.

         photo 113thidealfw_zps2a6f8e27.png

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 12:14:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Of all of the freshman members in the 113th Congress, I'm most interested in tracking Scott Peters' votes.

          The 52nd won't be an easy get for the GOP but it's certainly going to be a marquee race if Carl DeMaio decides to run. The 52nd is also clearly right of center, fiscally speaking, and left of center, socially speaking. It'll be interesting for me to observe how Peters works his district.

          Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

          by IllinoyedR on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 12:20:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think a lot of people think CA-52 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            IllinoyedR, MichaelNY

            is a bit safer than I do.  It might have a university and a downtown, but it also has a lot of apparently rather conservative quasi-suburban and suburban territory.  (Fun fact: It's also one of only few districts where the ACS estimates a majority of adults have a bachelor's degree or more.)

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:43:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  CA52 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, MichaelNY

              Peters is a good fit for it, but as usual in a midterm year it depends on how his GOTV operation is. His district should be less prone to dropoff than most poorer districts would be, but it's also close enough that turnout will probably make or break the result.

              SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

              by sacman701 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:00:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Peters (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                aamail6

                Admittedly, Scott Peters is sharp, somewhat of a centrist, and he's worth 80 million dollars. As far as Democrats go, I think Peters is probably the very best incumbent your side could have in the seat if you want to hold it for the decade. That's not to say that CA-52 is a Republican seat, but I think that its divided political makeup and the relative fiscal conservatism and relative social liberalism of the district makes it hard to pin down the district's "ideal Representative.'"

                Still, Peters is not as fiscally conservative as the seat is (in my opinion). Additionally, UCSD and much of downtown San Diego will generally stay home in a midterm. I'm also guessing that PB and OB have a more dramatic turnout drop-off in a midterm than, say, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Point Loma, and the non-UCSD dominated portions of La Jolla do.

                Turnout, Peters' votes, and the campaign Carl DeMaio runs (I can't imagine he wont run) will probably decide the 2014 race for CA-52. I just can't imagine the race won't be extremely close in 2014 if the year is typical of a midterm and if both sides run a good race.

                I plan to diary CA-52 at some point after I'm out of school for the summer, by the way.

                Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                by IllinoyedR on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:28:36 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Only a third to half of UCSD is in the district (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  the rest is in Issa's CA-49. It was split by the redistricting commission for some odd reason.

                  23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14.

                  by kurykh on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:16:13 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Not only this (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    But students are often registered at home, not at their campus address.

                    "student drop-off" is often a very bad argument to make, because students don't vote to begin with and when they do they vote at home not in their campus area districts.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:22:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  so wrong to generalize (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      If this was true, neighborhoods around UO would have dozens of voters rather than hundreds or thousands.

                      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                      by James Allen on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 10:54:38 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I didn't say "all" (0+ / 0-)

                        I said "often". There are plenty of students that register at their campus or school area address, but there are also plenty that do not or are not registered at all. And there's also the fact that those precincts will not be entirely composed of students, which ofcourse means that alot of those votes aren't students at all - who ofcourse are much less likely to turnout out either in presidentials or midterms. All of which is to say that this "midterm dropoff" fear among students is really not likely to a) be a big effect at all and b) be large enough even then to cause Peters to lose in what is a D+2 district composed of very high turnout areas in general (I.E. those students aren't what is causing the D+2, it is the rest of the voters among whom the students are a very small drop in the bucket).

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:11:29 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  you said its often a bad argument to make (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          and then went on to say when they do register to vote, they register at home, where you did seem to be talking about all of them.  I've been involved in enough student voter registration to know that statement was way off.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 07:42:46 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                  •  UCSD (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I mentioned on RRH today that the campus is split, but I thought more of it was in CA-52.  That split is just super strange. That had to be politically motivated to keep the district swingy...

                    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                    by IllinoyedR on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:28:50 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

      •  A bit more precisely (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and taking into account the confidence intervals.

        The following Democrats have scores indistinguishable from -0.15 with 95% confidence:

        Barber    Ron    AZ    2
        Barrow    John    GA    12
        Cooper    Jim    TN    5
        Costa    Jim    CA    16
        Cuellar    Henry    TX    28
        Kelly    Robin    IL    2
        Kind    Ron    WI    3
        Kirkpatrick    Ann    AZ    1
        Maffei    Dan    NY    24
        McIntyre    Mike    NC    7
        Owens    Bill    NY    21
        Peters    Scott    CA    52
        Peterson    Collin    MN    7
        Schrader    Kurt    OR    5
        (Kelly just hasn't voted very often yet, so her score could be basically anything.)  So Peters is probably voting around as liberal as those people.

        Matheson's score is more conservative than -0.15 with 95% confidence; every other Democrat not yet mentioned has a score more liberal than -0.15 with 95% confidence.

        Of course, I picked -0.15 to be selective.  I could have said -0.2, and added the following names:

        Bera    Ami    CA    7
        Gallego    Pete    TX    23
        Garcia    Joe    FL    26
        Green    Gene    TX    29
        Kuster    Ann    NH    2
        Lipinski    Daniel    IL    3
        Loebsack    Dave    IA    2
        Maloney    Sean    NY    18
        Murphy    Patrick    FL    18
        Ruiz    Raul    CA    36
        Schneider    Brad    IL    10
        But I think this is just different ways of saying the same thing.  Peters is probably in the "most conservative" Democratic tier other than Matheson, along with the people on the first list (almost certainly with the exception of Kelly), and maybe a bit more conservative than the people on the second list.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:08:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Walter Jones (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      How he hasn't been tea bagged out of his seat by now I have no idea.  He's constantly an annoyance to his party.  He came out fairly early against the Iraq War and votes against his caucus a good deal more often than more conservative republicans who have lost their seats for being "too moderate."

  •  Jindal tax bill indefinitely defferred: (12+ / 0-)

    http://dailykingfish.com/...
    All that bravado for nothing.

    "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

    by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:00:20 AM PDT

  •  TX-Redistricting (4+ / 0-)

    Senate Committee on State Affairs to hear a bill to make the interim maps permanent in 30 minutes (2:00 p.m.)

    Video will be here (needs Real Player). If State Affairs doesn't appear, it will be Senate floor.
    http://www.senate.state.tx.us/...

    SSP alumni, 27, Male, Democrat, TX-22 ('10); TX-14 ('12)

    by trowaman on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 11:34:40 AM PDT

  •  I impulsively responded to the media (7+ / 0-)

    the other day, instead of once again only sharing my feelings on here. It was from this article:

    http://www.businessweek.com/...

    Now The Atlantic discusses the issue much better. http://www.theatlantic.com/...

    Not surprisingly, the paper that Paul Ryan has been citing as support for his claim we desperately need to trim the budget or else, made mistakes with its spreadsheet, including putting the wrong data in one block and failing to use the formulas right. Yes, that's the level of incompetence here, but more so their questionable methodology of averaging each country's average economic growth instead of all the years together, led to radically different results when another team investigated the subject.

    Essentially Krugman has outlined why the basic arguments are macroeconomic-illiterate, and you can read up here if you're interested: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/...

    But anyway, returning to this article. It was okay. Except that buried down I once again saw the flat statement:

    Ryan’s 2014 budget, introduced earlier this year and subsequently passed by the Republican-controlled House, would eliminate the budget deficit over the next decade.
    I sent the following response out to the contact information provided with the page:
    Mr. Wellisz,

    Without expecting (though the hope is there) for a reply from someone with a busy schedule and doubtless a far-too-large pile of random hate mail and incoherent complaints, I wanted to assert that the following statement from the article on the Reinhart-Rogoff paper is problematic and does not pass muster in terms of journalistic precision and equity:

    "Ryan’s 2014 budget, introduced earlier this year and subsequently passed by the Republican-controlled House, eliminates the budget deficit over the next decade"

    My point here has nothing to do with the very real and very legitimate political argument over the deficit and its impact on growth, or the social costs of austerity and whether austerity successfully tackles deficits. Those are issues in need of coverage, and which need to be covered by both sides. The problem with this line, set off by itself in the middle of the article, is that it is highly problematic. Why? Because this is an assertion that is inaccurate; Paul Ryan sells his plan on that basis, but the evidence says that it does not: http://www.cbpp.org/... Congressional Budget Office estimates predict that Ryan's plan would not see budget surpluses until 2040, while Ryan contends that if you factor in the enormous economic growth he expects his plan to generate, the case will be otherwise, the point being that Ryan is depending on an unlikely degree of growth and exaggerates his budget's effects.

    Ryan is depending on the Alesina-Ardagna study that said austerity could lead to economic expansion, a study since discredited pretty roundly in economic circles, and shown to be patently unfeasible in the Euro-zone. Austerity policies by their very nature lead to short-term economic contraction, which has the effect of increasing the deficit.

    This is essentially a topic of open debate. Leftist intellectuals and think tanks, and economic policy vehicles have put forth a large body of evidence on the matter, while official state projections also weighed in against Ryan's claims, which are, again, based on the expectations of economic growth built on a single widely discredited study. Even if, for the purposes of being equitable to both party's/ideologies, the phrasing should be differently.

    I would strongly urge, and indeed beseech your organization to instead phrase the matter pertaining to the Ryan budget in all future instances in a way that takes into account the fact that there is no ultimate answer on whether Ryan's budget closes the deficit in ten years, by writing that, sans background and sans counter-opinion, readers are deeply misinformed on the political process going on right now, and it represents a real and pertinent bias towards a certain political program that should not exist in media reporting. To proffer a general counter example of how to broach the issue at heart here, I suggest something more like "Ryan asserts that his 2014 budget eliminates the deficit over the next ten years, however opponents counter this claim, citing the CBO's official report that the Ryan budget would still have a deficit of 287 billion dollars in 2022."

    That is only meant as an example, one that simply inserts the word opponents, and avoids discussing where the difference comes from (projections of economic growth). But to make an absolutist assertion on what the Ryan plan accomplishes vis a vis the deficit is a significant source of frustration for politically informed opponents of Ryan, and it misrepresents a real and ongoing debate that readers of news media need to have information on, thus I would strongly recommend the change in editorial policy on this issue,

    Sincerely, (and thanks for your time),

    There hasn't been any response and the way of reporting is highly unlikely to change, and not because of ideology really, but because journalists, in my experience, are some of the laziest and most formulaic writers who spend most of their time mindlessly repeating conventional wisdom or repeating something just because they've heard it before. It's a problem with the political process.

    And really, until Democrats are able to get the media to promulgate a more thorough and engaging expose of policy and politics, conservative policies will continue to get greater support than they otherwise would. Democrats it seems, always have the steeper political challenge.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 12:09:35 PM PDT

  •  Manchin (21+ / 0-)

    Although his background check bill was flawed, Manchin has been pretty good in the gun debate.  He has taken a lot of heat from people in West Virginia and his former friends, the NRA (he is pretty livid with them now).  It's a shame his bill didn't pass.

  •  DE-Sen (14+ / 0-)

    Christine O'Donnell considering a rematch against Sen. Chris Coons.

    Apparently, they are "hearing from supporters every day that they want her to run again".

    There's an amusing comment down below about how running awful, hopelessly rightwing campaigns, even at the expense of beating more serious politicians in the primary, has become a career for some of these types.  O'Donnell doesn't actually have to be a good politician or particularly knowledgeable about government or civics to do this because she will never actually be elected to anything.  All she has to do is keep feeding the rightwing base what they want to hear as she goes down in one flaming defeat after another.  It really is an interesting career to choose, and I think we might see more of this happening in coming years with these types of perennial candidates.

  •  PPP: Hickenlooper and Udall looking good (10+ / 0-)

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Hickenlooper and Udall both post good approvals at 53%-44% and 50%-33% respectively.  

    Both lead all their opponents for reelection.  The closest is interestingly Bob Beauprez (last seen getting destroyed by Bill Ritter in 2006) who trials Hickenlooper 50-43 and Udall 48-41.  Against Cory Gardner, Secretary of State Scott Gessler, Jane Norton, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Attorney General John Suthers, Tom Tancredo, and Scott Tipton, both are over the magic 50%.  None of these GOPers are popular; Suthers does best at a -6 approval.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:16:09 PM PDT

  •  Max Baucus: Obamacare = train wreck (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, ChadmanFL

    Seriously? First voting against the watered down background checks bill.  And now all the rightwing blogs, and even some mainstream outlets, have picked up on his comment that the implementation of Obamacare could be a total train wreck and he's blaming the Obama administration for it. He's flailing around like Blanche Lincoln.

    •  Sounds like he wants to continue. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, ChadmanFL

      He's probably polled his state and seen that his approvals are falling.  I'd say he's probably going to have to go through a primary.  (I kinda hope so, but if he looses the primary from the left, I don't think we can hold that seat.)

    •  He said it could be (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GloFish, jj32, wadingo, ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

      due to a number of states refusing to set up an exchange themselves.  It'll take some muscle by the feds to set up one for all of these holdouts.  He didn't say it's the admin's fault, except on selling it.  Frankly, after the SCOTUS and until shortly before more stuff kicks in, there's not much hurry to.

      "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

      by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:30:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Please don't start these painful panics (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        without giving full context.  And he voted against the provisions to the bill because he wants to stay in the good graces of the NRA, which is strong there.

        "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:32:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, true. The roll out has been far from perfect (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But Congress has also failed to fully fund it. Plus, Baucus cannot run away from Obamacare. He wrote it!

        •  The money is already appropriated ahead of time (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          but I think it's the supplementals that have been denied, requiring departmental funding shuffling.  Sebelius was correct to put blame on Republicans for shortcomings.

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:36:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Part of the problem has been that a lot of (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, wadingo, MichaelNY, GloFish

            GOP governors were hoping the bill wouldnt have to be enacted at all, so they did little work to prepare. Same probably goes for states with GOP legislatures.  

            They thought the SCOTUS would strike it down, then they hoped Romney would win and block the law anyway he could.

            That didnt happen, so basically they were left with a year to make a decision on exchanges and Medicaid expansion.

            Hopefully, the federal government can get everything running by the Oct 1st, even if it isnt perfect.

            But I do think you will see a state by state difference in implementation of the law, between states like CA and MD that embraced the entire law immediately, and states like TX and GA, which have basically ignored it.  

        •  He didn't run away from it. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

          by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:36:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  And in that regard (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        yes, there should be info campaigns to ensure people know how to use the exchanges.  Ads on tv like psa's.

        "It is the stillest words that bring on the storm. Thoughts that come on doves' feet guide the world." -Nietzche, Thus Spoke Zarathustra

        by KingofSpades on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:35:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  LA-Sen Landrieu Gun Vote (9+ / 0-)

    http://themonkeycage.org/...

    It seems that Landrieu actually didn't take alot of courage with this vote, given that Louisiana is actually the 14th most "pro-gun control" state according to a study that took over 54,000 interviews.

    It isn't a majority position in the state (in the 13 states above Louisiana it is), but it is certainly close to being. Louisiana is a pretty urban state, with two major urban centers dominating its politics.

    New Orleans's white Republican areas and black Democratic areas both seem to me to be areas where gun control would actually do pretty well - and given that these are the areas she either has to control the margins or gin up turnout, this was the correct vote for her to take.

    Furthermore, it is entirely consistent with her current strategy of tying all Republicans to Jindal's horrible unpopularity because of schools and the budget (which are also aimed at these areas).

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 01:59:14 PM PDT

    •  Regardless (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      her and Hagan were on the right side, particularly on background checks.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:16:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doubtful (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      I'm sorry but the findings are a little silly in that poll and do not reflect polling done here by local pollsters.

      There are a couple of other points I'd make. The white suburban voters in BR especially but also in NOLA aren't going to be the white vote Landrieu targets to push her over (except maybe those in Jefferson Parish, where she's always performed admirably and where Mitch surely is quite popular). Where she outperforms Democrats is in the rural and Blue Dog areas of the state.

      These areas won't be too kind to gun safety votes; however, she's already staking the claim that Manchin-Toomey would be good for gun owners because (1) it bans a national registry and (2) it puts all gun sellers on an equal playing field.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:34:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  She overperformed Obama by 26% in 2008 (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area.

        •  And as I said above (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          A lot of that vote is hardly suburban. St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Lafourche, Washington, all parishes she won in the metro area that you'd be hard pressed to define as suburban.

          Even parts of Jefferson Parish in Grand Isle and nearer to the coast aren't suburban. Heck, even the far reaches of orleans Parish passed English Turn is pretty "rural."

          Her coalition is that she outright wins rural NW LA, SW LA, large parts of Acadiana and the coast, as well as the traditional Dem areas.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Apr 19, 2013 at 08:09:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Vermont is an oddity (3+ / 0-)

      It's possibly the most liberal state in the country on most issues but one of the most pro-gun states.

      •  Because it's one of the most rural states. (4+ / 0-)

        Which, by the way, is why I don't understand how people can claim there are no regional effects in partisan orientation anymore and that it all just comes down to urban/rural population percentages: Vermont and Maine are two of the most rural states in the country, and solidly Democratic. Arizona and Utah are two of the most urban states, and solidly Republican. Texas is quite urban as well. Etc....

  •  Bachmann (11+ / 0-)

    The worst thing that could happen to Dems in her district is for her not to run again or have to resign. As long as she's running, Dems will always have a chance to take this seat.

    •  True fact. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, ChadmanFL, JBraden, MichaelNY

      But ethical damage insufficient to destroy her before a primary can only help us.

      (Imagine if 15 years from now, she ends up getting primaried from the right, by their version of the Tea Party...)

      Yes, it is bread we fight for -- but we fight for roses, too! | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05: come for the jazz, stay for the burnt ends | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:46:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  well if she hangs on to the very end (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      like a month before the general election 2014, we could still pull it off. I mean we still won Bob Ney's seat in 2006 even though Ney was no longer the candidate on the ballot.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:09:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I need GIS help (0+ / 0-)

    I'm trying to make a district analysis of CA-52 like I have done for PA-06/07/08, CT-04/05, IL-10, MA-06, etc. but San Diego County's precinct maps are only accessible if you have GIS software.

    Basically, I need someone to overlay the precincts over a map and to send that map to me. It's possible that I wouldn't be able to see precinct numbers without GIS software, but I'm not sure because I have no GIS experience. Basically, I need to be able to see which precinct is which so I can divide Peters/Bilbray results by San Diego Neighborhood (and by Poway and Coronado). Could someone help me with that?

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 02:45:36 PM PDT

  •  SC-01: The DCCC ad is pretty good (7+ / 0-)

    I'm glad they are spending money here. It will be a very difficult hold in 2014, but with a tough road to gaining 17 net seats, I dont think we can afford to turn down these kinds of races.

    And while GOP might be relieved by a Sanford loss, it could mean good things for Dems, in terms of fundraising, recruitment, and a few days of positive headlines that we wouldnt otherwise have.

    And who knows? ECB looks like a pretty strong candidate, and she will certainly get fundraising help from her brother again. So we might just hold the seat in 2014, or at least have a race that wouldnt otherwise be competitive.

  •  LOL (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, WisJohn, betelgeux, MichaelNY

    looks like somebody in Missouri managed to hit a nerve of whiny state sen. Brian Nieves (R): http://politicalwire.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:49:50 PM PDT

  •  MN gay marriage (8+ / 0-)

    not sure how much to read into this, but the main sponsor of the gay marriage bill in the House says "We're very, very close."

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 03:55:50 PM PDT

  •  Hey David (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    can you put a link to that pending lawsuit to the fair district amnedment in Florida? I didn't even knew that was happening. Cause clearly some of those district are designed to protect certain Republicans in FL's delegation. Not all of those districts are "fair" IMO. Young is a prime example

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:02:12 PM PDT

  •  CO-Sen, liking those numbers for Udall :) (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, MichaelNY, CO Democrat

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 04:55:19 PM PDT

  •  Self-honored. (5+ / 0-)

    Gay farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em runner-up.

    by WisJohn on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 05:06:42 PM PDT

  •  Voting getting easier in Colorado? (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.denverpost.com/...

    ...Pabon's comments sparked a marathon floor debate Thursday between Democrats and Republicans over a groundbreaking proposal that would send mail ballots to every eligible voter, allow Election Day registration and put all the counties on a real-time statewide database that supporters say would weed out those who try to vote twice.

    The Voter Access and Modernized Elections Act was given initial approval by voice vote on Thursday night and is expected to be up for final approval Friday.

    Good to see voting possibly getting easier instead of harder for a change.

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."—Plato

    by Minnesota Mike on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:11:44 PM PDT

  •  Top 2 primary in Montana? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike

    A couple election related referendums will be on the ballot in 2014 in Montana.

    http://billingsgazette.com/...

    HELENA — The Montana House on Wednesday approved a pair of election referendums that sparked uproar in the Senate two weeks ago when Democrats failed in an attempt to block the bills.

    Senate Bill 405 aims to establish a voter registration deadline of the Friday before Election Day, and Senate Bill 408 would allow the top two vote-getters in a primary election to advance, regardless of their political party.

    The House vote means the referendums will sidestep a potential veto from Gov. Steve Bullock and appear before voters on the 2014 ballot.

    "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors."—Plato

    by Minnesota Mike on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:19:09 PM PDT

  •  MIT (7+ / 0-)

    Our resident Bostonians, please keep yourselves safe if you're in the MIT area:

    http://www.theatlanticwire.com/...

    This week has sucked. The explosion in West (destroying my favorite strudel shop), the Boston Marathon, the letters to Wicker and Obama, and everything else, now MIT has a shooter.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Thu Apr 18, 2013 at 08:51:42 PM PDT

  •  Marathon suspect arreste (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

    one of the Marathon bombing suspects arrested in Watertown per my TV.

    Major firefight occurred, one cop dead, another injured.

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