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Welcome to hurricane season:

Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, with 40 MPH winds and extremely heavy rain. The story with Andrea won't be wind, but rather rain. Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over the southeastern United States over the next couple of days, leading to a potential for flash flooding.

From the National Hurricane Center:

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.  TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

In other words, rain, rain, more rain, and flooding. Here's the 7-day rainfall forecast (in inches) from the Weather Prediction Center.

Keep up with the National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office for the latest on this storm.

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National Hurricane Center Main Page
NHC Advisories
NHC Satellites
NHC Analysis Tools
NHC Audio Briefings

National Weather Service Main Page
National Weather Service -- Tallahassee FL
National Weather Service -- Tampa Bay Area
National Weather Service -- Central Florida
National Weather Service -- Northeast Florida
National Weather Service -- Charleston SC/Savannah GA
National Weather Service -- Southeast NC/Northeast SC

Storm Prediction Center Main Page
Storm Prediction Center -- Current Severe Weather Watches
Storm Prediction Center -- Convective (Severe Weather) Outlooks
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Discussions
Storm Prediction Center -- Storm Reports
Storm Prediction Center -- Mesoscale Analysis Pages

Wunderground's Detailed Radar (click the + nearest to you to see your local radar)

NOAA Weather Models

TwisterData.com's excellent GFS/NAM/RAP model website.

I'll continuously post updates to my Facebook page on this and most other major weather events.

4:28 PM PT: Tropical Storm Andrea formed in the most climatologically-ideal spot for tropical development in June.

Storms tend to form close to North America early and late in the season. It's not until we get towards the hotter summer months do they start to form out in the middle of the ocean.

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