Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
Leading Off:
• House: Roll Call and the National Journal are both out with similar retirement watch pieces, looking for clues about who might call it quits based on weak second quarter fundraising numbers. Combining both articles, here's who makes the list:
Republicans: Howard Coble (NC-06), Scott DesJarlais (TN-04), Doug Lamborn (CO-05), Bill Young (FL-13), Don Young (AK-AL)
Democrats: Mike Capuano (MA-07) (who could run for governor), Alcee Hastings (FL-20), Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30), Collin Peterson (MN-07), Mel Watt (NC-12) (if he's not confirmed by the Senate to run Fannie Mae)
Hastings, interestingly, recently
received a primary challenge from Port of Palm Beach Commissioner Jean Enright, though he handily turned back intra-party opponents in both
2004 and 2008. On the flipside, Republican Buck McKeon (CA-25) and Democrat Charlie Rangel (NY-13) both improved their fundraising, which may augur for either seeking another term.
Senate:
• KY-Sen: Here's that new ad from Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, the super PAC supporting GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell. It predictably ties Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to Barack Obama, featuring a clip of her saying "I do" when asked if she supports the "national Democratic Party platform." That, the narrator warns, includes "Obamacare, the war on coal, big spending, higher taxes." Pretty standard, but doesn't seem to pack much of an emotional punch. (By the way, who is the dude in the hat—"Jim," she calls him—who asks Grimes the question in the first place?)
• LA-Sen: The Hill has an article about how Rep. Bill Cassidy—the likely GOP opponent to Sen. Mary Landrieu in 2014—has been winning over skeptics and raised a sizable amount of coin last quarter. The real meat of the story may be at the end, though, where it talks about his tea-flavored opposition, Rob Maness. While someone like Maness might have gotten some traction in previous years, it sounds like he's reached out to all manner of right-wing orgs (FreedomWorks, Heritage Action, the Club for Growth, the Susan B. Anthony List, and the Senate Conservatives Fund, who've publicly spoken of the desire to find a Cassidy opponent) and rabble-rousing politicians (Ted Cruz, Rand Paul) and been met with only shrugs. (David Jarman)
• VA-Sen: It's the same old story in Virginia, where Republicans still don't have a candidate to take on Sen. Mark Warner, and where he handily beats their most prominent names anyway—none of whom have actually expressed any interest in running. Indeed, PPP's latest numbers are pretty much identical to what they found in May (PDF), though embattled Gov. Bob McDonnell now fares even worse, trailing by 15 instead of "just" 11.
• WY-Sen: A new poll from Harper Polling, taken on behalf of the site Conservative Intelligence Briefing, finds Sen. Mike Enzi leading Liz Cheney 55-21 in the GOP primary. And man is that electorate old: 71 percent over 50!
Gubernatorial:
• IA-Gov: Quinnipiac has another Iowa gubernatorial poll, but it's approvals only—no horserace head-to-heads.
• IL-Gov: Two Illinois congressmen are endorsing Gov. Pat Quinn in the Democratic primary: Reps. Luis Gutierrez and Danny Davis, who are prominent leaders in the Hispanic and black communities respectively. But they're apparently the only ones taking sides. Reporter Lynn Sweet canvassed the rest of the delegation, and everyone else is remaining neutral in the battle between Quinn and former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, including Sen. Dick Durbin. I actually take that as an unwelcome sign for Quinn, since supporting an incumbent member of your own party is usually a matter of course.
• MA-Gov: Somerville Mayor Joseph Curtatone has publicly confirmed his interest in a gubernatorial bid, joining a long list of Democrats who are either already running or still weighing the race for this open seat. I respect Curtatone for acknowledging that he's taking into account how the field develops before deciding (most politicians profess to ignore other candidates), especially since Rep. Mike Capuano, who was himself once a mayor of Somerville and could draw from a similar base, is also considering a bid.
Other Races:
• CO Recall: With the two Colorado recalls now set for Sept. 10, any candidates who want to challenge the incumbents must file 1,000 signatures by July 29. In state Senate President John Morse's 11th District, Republicans have already coalesced around former Colorado Springs City Councilman Bernie Herpin, after erotic fiction writer Jaxine Bubis dropped out following a straw poll. Meanwhile, in the 3rd District, retired Pueblo Deputy Police Chief George Rivera is hoping to take on state Sen. Angela Giron, but note that in both seats, there are no party primaries—anyone who submits enough signatures can get on the ballot.
That means the anti-incumbent vote could get split multiple ways, and it's why SD-11 Republicans conducted that preliminary selection process in the first place. But it wasn't binding, and a latecomer could screw things up for the GOP in either race. It's even possible Democrats might try a ratfuck here, sort of like Wisconsin Republicans did in their recalls, when they bolstered fake Democrats in a number of primaries (one of whom came within 10 points of winning). We'll see how things unfold by the end of the month.
• Special Elections: There are two legislative specials in California on Tuesday, and of course, Johnny Longtorso has the scoop:
California SD-16: This is the open Democratic seat where Republican Andy Vidak was initially believed to be the winner, but some last-minute absentee ballots pulled him just under 50 percent of the vote. His opponent in the runoff is Democrat Leticia Perez, a Kern County supervisor who got 44 percent of the vote in round one. The combined Democratic vote in the primary ended up being just under 50 percent, with the balance going to a Peace and Freedom Party candidate, so this runoff is likely to be decided on turnout. Despite Dem-friendly Fresno County containing about half of the voters in the district, higher turnout in Kings and Tulare got Vidak within a hair's breadth of victory.
California AD-52: This is the seat vacated by Norma Torres following her election to the state Senate back in May. Nine candidates filed here, including seven Democrats: Paul Avila, Tom Haughey, Freddie Rodriguez, Jason Rothman, Manuel Saucedo, Danielle Soto, and Doris Wallace. One Republican also filed, Dorothy Pineda, and one independent, Paul Leon. Avila and Leon both ran in the special election to the State Senate, Avila coming in last in the first round, and Leon losing the runoff to Torres by a 2-1 margin (he was a Republican then—he apparently became an independent to try to appeal to the district's Democrats). The district, located in San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties, is safely Democratic, giving 65 percent of the vote to President Obama last year. With nine candidates running, this one is likely to go to a runoff in September.
Alibguy goes into much more depth
in his own post on the Senate race.
Grab Bag:
• Maps: Hot on the heels of that map of each state's supposedly greatest beer, here's a similar piece of geo-cultural clickbait designed to get everyone fighting about what belongs where: a map of each state's "most critically acclaimed" musical artist. (David Jarman)