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9:11 AM PT: CA-11: Veteran Democratic Rep. George Miller, a tireless advocate for working people and a major supporter of the labor movement, has announced that he'll retire at the end of this year. Miller was one of the last Democrats in Congress elected in the post-Watergate landslide of 1974, and in recent years, he had become a top ally of fellow Californian Nancy Pelosi. Miller simply pointed to his long, 40-year tenure as the reason for his departure. His seat is safely Democratic (it went 68-30 for Barack Obama in 2012), so it's sure to remain blue. But as an outspoken progressive and Pelosi's closest confidant, Miller's shoes will be hard to fill.

9:18 AM PT: Possible replacement candidates include state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, both of whom are term-limited in their current jobs.

9:56 AM PT: Special Elections: Just one this week. Johnny Longtorso previews:

Arkansas SD-21: This is an open Democratic seat located in Craighead County. The candidates are Democrat Steve Rockwell, manager of his family's publishing company, and Republican John Cooper, who ran for the Arkansas House in 2012 and received 46 percent of the vote.

10:18 AM PT: AR-LG: So much for his pledge to stand and fight. GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Darr, after initially striking a defiant stance in the face of almost certain impeachment, now says he'll resign, effective next month. His decision is actually a boon for Republicans, who didn't want Darr and his ethics violations causing them problems on their ticket this November. Ordinarily, a special election would be held to replace Darr, but the legislature may try to leave his seat open until this fall's regularly scheduled elections.

10:36 AM PT: GA-Gov, -Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has commissioned a new poll from Abt SRBI of the Georgia governor's race, finding GOP Gov. Nathan Deal leading Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter 47-38. Those are better numbers than most surveys have found for Deal, who sports a 54-24 job approval score. That's wildly different from the 34-41 rating PPP gave him in October.

The AJC poll also has a Senate component, but they only asked about favorables for the top candidates. Everyone's positives are in the 30s, including the lone Democrat, non-profit founder Michelle Nunn.

10:57 AM PT: VA-Sen: A new poll from The Polling Company, a Republican firm, finds former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, who is reportedly gearing up for a Senate bid, losing to Democratic Sen. Mark Warner 51-33. There are also a bazillion matchups with other Republican names, none of whom are actually considering a run. (Bill Kristol?!) For what it's worth, the person who does best is state Sen. Mark Obenshain, the runner-up in last year's race for attorney general; he trails Warner 49-42.

Also, check out the garbage-y questions on the last two pages of the PDF. They're masquerading as message-testing questions (with lines like "Even now, despite the growing backlash to the law, Mark Warner still defends his vote for Obamacare"), but really, they're just axe-grindy attempts to push a public narrative. Sincere attempts to probe an opponent's weaknesses don't look like this, but amusingly, by a 46-45 spread, respondents say that Warner's support of Obamacare makes them more likely to support him!

11:13 AM PT (Darth Jeff): LA-06: The race for this vacant Baton Rouge area seat has been slow to develop, but The Advocate gives us a good rundown on who's in and who's a maybe. Romney carried the district 66-32 and all the action is on the Republican side. Like all races in Louisiana, all the candidates will run on one ballot in the November general. If no one clears 50 percent, the top-two candidates will advance to the December 6 runoff regardless of party.

State Sen. Dan Claitor and businessman Paul Dietzel II have been running for a while, and were recently joined by tax attorney Cassie Felder. While Claitor is the only elected official currently running, both Dietzel and Felder are well connected: Dietzel has the backing of Herman Cain and former Reps. Henson Moore and Bob Livingston, while Felder has served on a mayoral Blue Ribbon Commission. Also running are veterans Bob Bell and Norman Clark.

In the maybe column, former state Rep. and Focus on the Family head Tony Perkins is still mulling the race. East Baton Rouge Parish School Board President David Tatman says he'll decide in February; Metro Councilman Ryan Heck announced he planned to run back in August but has yet to actually file with the Federal Election Commission. In Louisiana it's not unusual for candidates to enter the race at the very last minute and with the filing deadline not until August 22, it could be a long time before the field settles here.

On the Democratic side only Richard Dean Lieberman is currently running. 86 year-old governor-turned-convict turned failed reality TV show star Edwin Edwards is looking for attention at a run, but I'll believe it when I see it.

11:16 AM PT: SD Mayor: Bleh. SurveyUSA's new poll of next month's special election for mayor in San Diego finds Republican Kevin Faulconer jumping out to a 53-37 lead over Democrat David Alvarez, a fellow city councilman. But just a month ago, it was Alvarez surging, with Faulconer clinging to a 47-46 lead. The last time SUSA showed big movement in this race, prior to the primary, we were skeptical at first. But the firm turned out to be right when Alvarez snuck past nominal Democratic frontrunner Nathan Fletcher in the first round of voting.

But in pre-primary polling, Faulconer nevertheless led Alvarez 51-38. So it's a bit crazy to go from +13 to +1 back to +16, and even UT San Diego, which says there was little campaigning over the holidays, is at a loss to explain this gyration. Perhaps that middle poll was somehow an outlier, possibly due to a temporary primary bounce for Alvarez. On the other hand, Alvarez is winning only 65 percent of Democrats while Faulconer has 84 percent support from Republicans. That seems hinky. It would be nice to see numbers from another pollster, but if not, we'll know the true results on Feb. 11.

12:23 PM PT: TN-03: Looks like young Weston Wamp done snuck up on us. Wamp, the 26-year-old son of ex-Rep. Zach Wamp, says that he's going to primary GOP Rep. Chuck Fleischmann a second time, something he's apparently been considering since at least November. Wamp finished third in 2012, scoring 29 percent of the vote, while Fleischman prevailed with 39 percent and ice cream magnate Scottie Mayfield took 31. (I mostly remember Wamp for this really bizarre ad where he affected a very deep voice as narrator.) This time, Wamp may believe Fleischman won't be saved by the clown car, since no other candidates are currently running.

1:25 PM PT: AZ-02: Former talk radio host Ed Martin has dropped out of the GOP primary in Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, giving establishment favorite Martha McSally a clearer shot at the nomination. McSally, a former Air Force combat pilot, does still face businesswoman Shelly Kais for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Ron Barber in November.

1:31 PM PT: MT-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Walsh just earned the endorsement of the SEIU, which has chosen him over ex-Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger in the Democratic primary. But while SEIU is a big name in labor, the union only has a very small presence in Montana, with just 800 members.

1:42 PM PT (Darth Jeff): New Orleans Mayor: Former Judge and mayoral candidate Michael Bagneris has an uphill fight to unseat incumbent and fellow Democrat Mitch Landrieu on February 1, but he raised eyebrows with some quick fundraising. Aided by a personal donation, Bagneris reported having $219,000 on hand as of the end of 2013. Landrieu's $1.2 million warchest easily dwarfs Bagneris' haul, but it's a good start for the challenger.

Landrieu has the backing of President Obama, a good get in a city where Obama won about 80 percent of the vote. Local organizations have also weighed in, with the local Democratic party and the Black Organization of Leadership Development both endorsing Bagneris and the influential Alliance for Good Government supporting Landrieu. Two other candidates are running, but neither has made much of an impact on the contest.

1:56 PM PT: NC-Sen: Toss another shrimp on the Republican barbie: Former Shelby (pop. 20,000) Mayor Ted Alexander is joining the GOP primary for Senate.

2:11 PM PT: NE-02, -Sen: Prominent local attorney David Domina has now acknowledged that he's considered a bid against GOP Rep. Lee Terry, but while he thinks Terry is vulnerable, he says Terry's opponent "does not need to be me." Instead, Domina sounds likely to pursue a bid for Nebraska's open Senate seat, which was where his political interests originally lay. Strangely, Domina admits that "[t]he conventional wisdom is that the House seat is winnable whereas the Senate race is daunting, if not impossible." Given that NE-02 is much bluer than the state as a whole, most analysts would agree with this statement, so why doesn't Domina?

2:27 PM PT: OR-05: Clackamas County Commissioner Tootie Smith, who first said she was considering a run against Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in October, is now making her bid official. No word yet if Natalie and Blair will endorse, but Mrs. Garrett is expected to manage the campaign.

2:29 PM PT: IA-03: State Sen. Brad Zaun, who ran against Rep. Leonard Boswell in the old version of Iowa's 3rd back in 2010, says he'll run again now that the newly reconfigured seat is open. He joins Secretary of State Matt Schultz and former Chuck Grassley chief of staff David Young in the GOP primary.

2:38 PM PT (David Jarman): Maps: With the 50th anniversary of LBJ's declaration of the War on Poverty, Pew Research is out with an array of new data about how the face of poverty has changed over the last 50 years. One of the most striking parts of the story, though, is the map showing how poverty has changed geographically in the intervening years. In 1969, 45.9% of all people in poverty lived in the south, while now southerners make up 41.1% of the total. The midwest and northeast's share of poverty has also gone down; all the increase is in the west, where in 1969 14.6% of the impoverished lived, but now 23.8% of the nation's poor live.

That probably has something to do with the fact that the west represents a bigger share of the country's overall population now than it did then, but digging a little deeper, it also represents the relationship between poverty and race. Since 1966, poverty among African-Americans (who live disproportionately in the south) has fallen from 41.8% to 27.2% now, while poverty among Hispanics (who live disproportionately in the west)rose from 22.8% in 1972 to 25.6% now (and more importantly, the number of Hispanics in the U.S. quintupled over those 40 years).

2:47 PM PT: MI-Sen, -Gov: Republican pollster Harper Polling has a new survey out showing Terri Lynn Land beating Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 44-36 in Michigan's open Senate race, while Gov. Rick Snyder leads Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer 47-35 in the gubernatorial contest. This is Harper's first poll of either race in almost a year, but there are a few wonky things with it. For one, Barack Obama's job approval is at 35-55, considerably lower than his national average—and in state he won by 9 points.

For another, the demographics are favorable to the GOP. There was no 2010 exit polling in Michigan, but in 2012, the electorate had a 10-point Democratic lean, while African Americans comprised 16 percent of all voters and those over 50 made up just about half. In Harper's poll, Democrats have a 5-point edge, blacks are just 8 percent of the sample, and older folks are 60 percent of the total. So just bear this all in mind when interpreting these results.

2:52 PM PT: TN-Sen: While Tennessee Democrats have little hope of knocking off GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander, at least they're determined to avoid the mistakes it made last cycle, when crypto-conservative weirdo Mark Clayton somehow won the Democratic nomination for Senate and wound up getting disowned by the entire party. That's why attorney Terry Adams is busy consolidating establishment support, with current and past party chairs expressing their support for his candidacy. (One, Bob Tuke, is his treasurer.) Adams doesn't have much money, but it seems like he does plan to run a vigorous race in the primary, giving Tennesseans a real choice in November.

2:56 PM PT: State Sen. Mark DeSaulnier has already said that he'll seek Miller's seat, while Assemblywomen Joan Buchanan and Susan Bonilla are also possible candidates. Meanwhile, former Obama Commerce Dept. Official Ro Khanna, who is engaged in a quixotic but well-funded challenge to Democratic Rep. Mike Honda in the 17th District, says he's staying put. It would be a strange move, though, akin to a candidate from Westchester switching to a race on Long Island (in case an East Coast-centric analogy helps make sense of things).

2:59 PM PT: PA-08: The United Steelworkers has decided to back Army vet Kevin Strouse in his bid for the Democratic nomination, giving him his sixth labor union endorsement so far. Strouse faces businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton for the the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick.

3:06 PM PT: CA-35/31: Last week, we suggested that ex-Rep. Joe Baca might re-target his comeback bid from the 31st District back to the 35th, in the event that Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod opts to run for local office. But Baca would have to actually be running a campaign in the first place, and according to Nathan Gonzales, it doesn't seem like he is, despite declaring his candidacy last year.

Gonzales made dozens of phone calls and sent many emails to find someone—anyone—who would confirm that they're working for Baca. No one would. As Nathan says, we'll know for sure when California's March 7 filing deadline rolls around. This kind of embarrassment, though, is vintage Joe Baca.

3:34 PM PT: 4Q Fundraising:

AR-Sen: Mark Pryor (D-inc): $1.1 million raised, $4.2 million cash-on-hand

MN-Sen: Al Franken (D-inc): $2.1 million raised, $4.8 million cash-on-hand

SD-Sen: Mike Rounds (R): $516,000 raised, $1.15 million cash-on-hand

PA-Gov: Rob McCord (D): $3.6 million raised in 2013, plus $1.7 million in self-funding and a $1.3 million transfer from his treasurer campaign

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R-inc): $757,000 raised, $3.7 million cash-on-hand; Vincent Sheheen (D): $459,000 raised, $1.4 million cash-on-hand

CA-21: Amanda Renteria (D): $335,000 (note: this about three times what 2012 Democratic nominee John Hernandez raised for his entire campaign)

IA-01: Anesa Kajtazovic (D): $120,000 raised, $100,000 cash-on-hand

IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $330,000 raised, $820,000 cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:00:15 AM PST

  •  AR- LT.G: Who gets to name Darr's successor? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    Now that Darr has resigned, what's the process for replacing him? And must the replacement be a Republican?

    "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

    by MrLiberal on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:15:21 AM PST

    •  Delicious (0+ / 0-)

      And I believe Rand Paul has chimed in as questioning this, so prepare for Christie to fight back with some sort of "the Feds are trying to rip control of New Jersey from the people" so some such gibberish.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:58:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fabulous. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, wadingo, askew, MetroGnome

      The prayer energy coming from the Governor's Mansion in Madison right now could be enough to generate power to the entirety of Rhode Island.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:01:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It was all about branding himself via Sandy... (6+ / 0-)

      Just like Guiliani was noun, verb, 9-11, Christie is trying to wrap himself in everything Sandy.

      It's all about "Look at me the non-partisan(see I'm with Obama) disaster solver (while throwing around gobs of federal oney to my political donor contractors)".  

      Like the GWB closing, this ad decision appears to be rather ham-handed and glaringly obvious.  I mean for $2.5M less they could have ran a tourism ad without Christie and Family as the central figures, again linking Christie to Sandy.  

      Hopefully it sticks.  And coming out on the heels of Bridgegate, folks might be more willing to see it in this light rather than "Dems attacking Christie for Sandy now".  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:08:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Those were as irritating as hell (0+ / 0-)

      Ok, so I read the polls.

      by andgarden on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:33:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-Sen (7+ / 0-)

    Harper has a lulzy new poll out showing Land leading Peters 44/36.

    http://www.conservativeintel.com/...

    It's the nonsense only a Republican pollster can cook up. Obama has a -20 approval rating in a state he won by 10. 78% are either moderate or conservative. Only 11% of the sample was 18-35. Truly hilarious.

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

    by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:45:23 AM PST

  •  Today's the Day (14+ / 0-)

    Hey everybody! I haven't commented much in the past few weeks because I've been buried with the holidays and side work. I haven't talked about it much, but since October, I've been an intern with Freedom Indiana, the organization trying to stop HJR-3. Today is a crucial day because the amendment is getting a hearing and a vote in the House Judiciary Committee. We could kill the amendment right away if it fails in committee, and nobody genuinely knows how the vote will play out because we've already persuaded some Republicans to our side while others are on the fence. I'm so proud of the organizing work this group has done, and al of the work these last four months is coming to a head. I stood outside the House chamber with more than 100 supporters for an hour and a half while we waited for seating to open up. I'm currently sitting in one of the legislators' seats (Matthew Lehman, to be exact), and it's really sinking in now. We've fully filled all of the seats on the bottom floor with several dozen standing in the back. I believe I heard that we also filled the gallery (though I can't see it from where I'm sitting). We also have a TON of people standing outside of the chamber holding signs in support of the cause. There are a bunch of big-name people present - I saw Jim Shella for example. It's all coming together, and I'm really excited to see what happens. The hearing should begin in a few minutes. There's going to be 75 minutes of testimony from each side, so if someone could post a livestream link (if one exists), I would greatly appreciate it. It's kind of surreal watching history in the making in-person. I'll check back later once more develops!

    •  I had read that (0+ / 0-)

      there are three Republicans on the committee undecided- Jerry Torr (R-Carmel), Wendy McNamara (R-Mt. Vernon), and Dan Leonard (R-Huntington). Any word on them yet?

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:28:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am listening to the hearing now (5+ / 0-)

        I think the head of Cummins Engines, one of the largest employers in the state just said that if the amendment passes, they will likely not add new jobs in the state and may reconsider the existing jobs in the state. Talk about pro-business Republicans!

        http://iga.in.gov/...

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:49:49 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Reading newsmax articles about Bridgegate (5+ / 0-)

    Really gives me the impression that they hate Christie. They  really seem to be slanted against him to me, while I expected the opposite.  

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:26:43 AM PST

    •  The further right hates Christie... (7+ / 0-)

      which is why this could sink him, because other than the villager GOP Pundits who like him - nobody on the right does.  Crist lost Florida Senate race because of "the hug" picture, and Huntsman was a complete non-starter in the 2012 Presidential primary (though arguably it's best chance to win) because he worked in Obama Admin.  

      Politically both the left and further right want to use Bridgegate to sink Christie.  Further right wants somebody further right of course - they want Walker or Ryan or Paul, and Dems want the same as well - because they are easier to beat in 2016.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:52:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And the story about misuse of Sandy funds (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo

        for a Christie-featured ad campaign will gall the far right even more, especially since they fought the awarding of those funds tooth and nail.

      •  They hated Romney, too (0+ / 0-)

        He still got the nomination.

        The Presidential is unlike any other nomination process.  It's dozens of elections across wildly different electorates over several months.  It costs a lot more money, and it requires stringing together wins in the form of narrow pluralities.  The truth is you don't have to poll very strongly or have a very large base to win the nomination.  And the further truth is you need a lot of money, although McCain proved you can thread the needle by raising just enough to win a few early states, then snowball it quickly into a larger amount to bury off-balance opponents later.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:43:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Romney didn't have serious competition. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, PassionateJus

          A bunch of out of work astronauts and C-list actors.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:52:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Better competition does matter, but... (0+ / 0-)

            ..."better competition" means other conservatives who can appeal to the middle which means they piss off the right in whatever ways.

            Christie might be more conspicuous in pissing off the right than other conservatives, but anyone who can win in November will have done that in the primaries.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:09:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Newsmax only speaks the unbiased truth, so... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, bythesea, wadingo

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:22:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I saw a comment (on the NYT site, even) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      Saying the Democrats were "coddling" Ft. Lee by "unfairly" giving them 3 lanes.  I don't know if that's a widespread view or if my snark detector is broken.

      •  It's not just people from Fort Lee who use (5+ / 0-)

        those lanes though. It's people from surrounding towns - think Leonia, Palisades Park, Tenafly, Cresskill, even us in Teaneck sometimes. While the traffic backups mostly affected people just trying to get around in Fort Lee, they hurt people going into NYC from a lot of the surrounding area.

        (As a minor aside, I've never seen anyone abbreviate it as Ft. Lee before Bridgegate went national.)

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:50:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ 3: Christie to appear at fundraiser for Lonegan (10+ / 0-)

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    I guess he's made his choice.

    Expect Christie to turn hard to his right to drum up support in his battle to survive.

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:03:52 AM PST

    •  LOL at this clown still causing headaches (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      for the party. If what I've read is any indication, they can probably prevent him from getting the nomination, but he's still a pain to them, a distraction and possibly a costly one.

      http://atr.rollcall.com/...

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:28:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bridgegate: special assembly committee formed (7+ / 0-)

    to investigate.  To be chaired by Wisniewski.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:13:39 AM PST

    •  Gillespie? Interesting? This does not compute. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, Zack from the SFV

      Error. Error. Error.

    •  Of course (8+ / 0-)

      The Beltway journalists don't want to have to go to icky states far from the comfy East Coast like Arkansas, North Carolina - or god forbid, Alaska! - to report on interesting Senate races.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:34:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lol (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo, Zack from the SFV

        North Carolina is the East Coast and they still don't want to!

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:13:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Keep in mind that the beltway media (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, DCCyclone

      ...considers Gillespie to be one of their own, since he was a former major party national chairman not named Howard Dean, so it's not surprising at all to see them cheerleading for Gillespie.

      I'll predict that WI-Gov will be the closest major statewide contest this year, in fact, I think the winner of that race will win with less than 50%+1 of the vote.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:38:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Gillespie is the only possible candidate (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        with any chance of making the race competitive, and that is based solely on his ability to raise money.

        All other potential candidates are nobodies.

        It's not so much they're Gillespie cheerleaders as they are just wanting something to write about.

        •  But if EW Jackson runs, he's in jeopardy (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bjssp, wadingo, gabjoh

          as they're holding the convention in Roanoake, far away from Gillespie's comfort zone.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:02:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  You can bribe the media these days... (0+ / 0-)

          ...if you're A) a wealthy person who can self-fund a significant portion of a campaign war chest and/or B) can raise a ton of money from campaign donors, and it's completely legal.

          There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

          by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:08:07 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The media is in the business of selling (5+ / 0-)

            Ads or copies, they are a business. All of the other potential candidates are nobodies who will do neither. They need something to print. Gillespie may give it to them. After the initial OMG EW JACKSON stories, most of which were already played out in the Lt gov race, there is no need to write about the Virginia Senate race again. They need 2 candidates that are at least plausible. Gillespie is, as least on paper.

        •  No, I think you're sorely mistaken (0+ / 0-)

          A better candidate with a record of public service who raises significantly less money than Gillespie would perform better against Warner.

          Candidates matter more than money.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:53:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  There'll be a bunch of major statewide races (0+ / 0-)

        where no candidate gets 50%. Certainly, if Cutler stays in, the winner of ME-Gov will get less than 50%. Also, with the new pro-third-party rules in Ohio, I wouldn't be surprised if no one in OH-Gov got 50%.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:19:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think Kasich is under 50 (0+ / 0-)

          unless he's barely winning like in 2010. Libertarians/Greens/etc don't typically do as well in Ohio as they do in neighboring states such as Indiana.

          It's also possible that Michaud clears 50. He's very popular, LePage is loathed, and many people don't have an opinion about Cutler. I also expect Cutler to fade away to maybe 10-15% at best as Democrats come home to their nominee. The only reason he did so well in 2010 was because Libby Mitchell was despised.

          •  A few things about ME-Gov (8+ / 0-)

            Michaud will only clear 50% if Cutler fades severely (and I think it's an open question whether he will or not). Remember, Maine has a long tradition of embracing and voting for independent candidates, and in fact no Governor of Maine has gotten an absolute majority since the 1998 re-election of... wait for it... Angus King.

            My hunch is that LePage's numbers are not going to change significantly. He's always had between 35 and 40 percent of the state supporting him, no more, no less. He got 39 percent in 2010, and polls show him in the mid-to-high 30s. His ceiling seems to be about 40 percent, and thus, since other independents will get around 3 percent, Michaud has to keep Cutler under 17 percent in order to win. Therefore, Michaud may have to push Cutler into the single digits to get an absolute majority, and while not impossible, I think the odds of that are relatively low.

            My best guess for now is Michaud 44, LePage 38, Cutler 15, Other 3.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:16:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  For once DownstateDemocrat nails it (4+ / 0-)

        "...the beltway media considers Gillespie to be one of their own."

        BINGO times 20!!!

        He's one of their family.

        That's why they tout him, and are delusional about how competitive he can be.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:55:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The only way I see this being even remotely (0+ / 0-)

      competitive is if Gillespie is just showered with money, and even then I expect him to lose by at least 10 points. If Gillespie does get that much money, does it help us as much as I hope it might? Virginia isn't California or Florida, but I'm fairly sure it isn't cheap, either, particularly in the areas where he'd need to make inroads in order to theoretically win.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:47:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Warner is a multimillionaire himself, so no. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Warner can throw as much money at this race as he wants, plus he's a lot more well-liked.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:42:06 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, Virginia isn't a deep blue state, at least (0+ / 0-)

          not yet, and Gillespie likely won't flame out in any spectacular fashion. I don't see him having the sort of appeal to the base to generate a lot of small dollar amount donors, but if big money can support him in some way, he could make an impact. But "remotely competitive" means keeping the margin respectable, not winning. Warner won't lack resources, and not just because he himself is rich, as you indicate.

          The more I think about this, the more I like this. He could drain other, more winnable races of funds, but still lose.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:49:23 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then let's hope EW Jackson gets the nomination (0+ / 0-)

            If he does, then it's easy pickings for us. If Northam could defeat Jackson by double digits without really trying, then Warner would crush him and run up he score without having to spend a lot of money.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:17:42 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think I'd prefer the other way. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wadingo, The Caped Composer

              Even $1 million drained out of West Virginia, Montana, Louisiana, and Arkansas each would be a big help for us, and I have to think Gillespie would get that before Jackson would, all the while without winning.

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:21:07 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Sure, but doesn't Warner give a lot of $ to other (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, wadingo, Skaje

                campaigns? If he's not forced to spend it in Virgina, then he can spend it in WV, Montana, and so forth.

                Or is it one of those "chicken and the egg" questions, where you would rather have the Republican forced to spend in VA so that they won't be able to spend elsewhere, while I'd rather the Dem not need to spend in VA so that they can spend elsewhere?

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:37:30 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm not sure about how much (0+ / 0-)

                  Warner gives to other Democrats.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:17:34 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  What's wrong with Gillespie's neck in the photo? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, nimh

      It looks like he's trying to be a giraffe.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:43:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maricopa County GOP formally censures Mccain (12+ / 0-)

    Lol.

    Via TPM.

    Whereas Senator McCain has amassed a long and terrible record of drafting, co-sponsoring and voting for legislation best associated with Liberal Democrats, such as Amnesty, funding for ObamaCare, the debt ceiling, assaults on the Constitution and 2nd amendment, and has continued to support liberal nominees;
    What the heck is in the water in Maricopa County?
  •  Just saw a tweet that George Miller (CA11) (8+ / 0-)

    is retiring.

  •  IL-Gov (7+ / 0-)

    Looks like Bruce Rauner may have bought a spot in an elite Chicago prep school for his daughter:

    Rauner, a millionaire venture capitalist, donated $250,000 through his Rauner Family Foundation to Payton Prep Initiative for Education on December 14, 2009, an investigation by the newspaper showed.

    The donation comes about a year and a half after Rauner was allegedly able to pull some strings in 2008 to get his daughter into Payton after the selective-enrollment, public school rejected her application.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:01:11 AM PST

  •  CA-33, Waxman challenger (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wadingo, Marcus Graly, Gygaxian

    Marianne Williamson got a large, positive write up in the LA Times this morning. She's running as an independent (although decidedly to the left of Waxman and she says she'll caucus with the Democrats if elected). She's a "spiritual leader," author, activist and occasional guest on Oprah. And I assume a multimillionaire.

    Waxman ran a terribly lazy campaign (a lot of new territory didn't help last year) and only beat his Republican turned independent candidate by 8 or so points. No Republicans have entered so far. This could be an interesting race with the top 2 primary format and if it is Williamson vs. Waxman in the general election.

    LA Times link

    •  With Miller's retirement (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, wadingo, Zack from the SFV

      Waxman is the last of the class of 1974 freshman elected in the wake of watergate. It would really be the end of an era if he leaves the House.

    •  If a huge chunk of this district could elect (0+ / 0-)

      Jane Harman over and over again, then Waxman should be safe.

      23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:04:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Judging by her campaign website... (0+ / 0-)

      ...she seems like the kind of candidate that I'd be open to the idea of endorsing, especially if she starts bashing the Democratic establishment from the left at every opportunity. She seems to be a Bernie Sanders-type politician.

      You might even see people on the DKos mainpage supporting Williamson if Williamson and Waxman make the top two. One common exception to the "no promotion of non-Democrats rule" at DKos is if there's no Republican running and an indpedent or third-party candidate is clearly campaigning to the left of the Democratic candidate.

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:18:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no thanks (5+ / 0-)

        Even if I were to the left of Waxman, I don't think I could support a flaky loose cannon over a veteran legislator who knows how to get things done.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:30:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Uh (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, Skaje, The Caped Composer

        I don't think Bernie Sanders "bash[es] the Democratic establishment from the left at every opportunity."

      •  That's still against the rules even if no GOPer (4+ / 0-)

        http://www.dailykos.com/...

        14. Third-party advocacy
        Daily Kos is dedicated to building a stronger, more progressive Democratic Party from the outside. We are not a party committee, we are base Democrats pulling the party to a more populist mainstream orientation. As such, we do not allow advocacy for any other party, whether it's the GOP, or the Greens, or anyone else. The exception is in states with fusion voting, where third parties are working in concert with Democratic-party endorsed or nominated candidates. But any party looking to harm the electoral prospects of Democratic candidates run counter to our mission, and must take that advocacy elsewhere. Lucky for them, it's a big internet!
        Emphasis mine. If you want to advocate for Williamson that's your business, but you'd need to do it at another site.

        Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

        by Jeff Singer on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:32:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kos is going to have to ban... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nimh

          ...quite a few Williamson supporters if she makes the top two, as the Nader trolls will probably come out of the woodwork if Williamson makes the top two.

          I have my own blog where I keep my advocacy for leftist independent/third-party candidates that I support (although it's very rare for me to support independent/third-party candidates).

          There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

          by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:20:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Gates as Obama's VP in 2008 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, GloFish, wadingo

    So apparently, he was actually approached, at least in the most basic sense. I thought the only Republican considered was Ann Venneman, as well as Bloomberg, if you considered him a Republican at that point. I know McCain wanted Lieberman, because they are besties4evs, and considered Bloomberg as well.

    I always wondered if Obama would have actually done something like this. Given what we knew before September of that year, it seemed like he would win, and of course, in hindsight, we can be assured. I don't think think this would have cost him anything, unless this would have made McCain go a different direction and not pick Palin. If it did, it would have been in the very liberal areas where he'd have won by 40 points instead of 45, or something. I can see McCain doing something like this, if only because he seems wedded to the idea that political independence is a way of life, even if it's a pretty thin.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:36:27 AM PST

    •  Sounds like it was Harry Reid who might (0+ / 0-)

      have thought it was a good idea, even just as a courtesy.  

      This kind of reminds of when Nancy Pelosi suggested Rep. Chet Edwards as Obama's VP choice.

      As someone in the comments notes, Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder ran the selection process for Obama's VP, so unless they interviewed Gates, dont see this as serious.  

      •  Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, wadingo, Christopher Walker

        I know far less about this process than I thought I did.

        Also, as a courtesy? I wonder if Reid is playing games in some way. I think it was LordMike who said that Reid suggested Harriet Miers as a different choice for the Supreme Court, as opposed to another judge/academic type that we usually see. Now, maybe I am forgetting something, and/or maybe Miers was just a unique case of someone imploding in a spectacular way, despite being successful in a standard way in the legal field, but I had assumed Miers was always a joke pick--not nearly as absurd as suggesting Chomsky as Sec. of State, but not all that different, either. But was it serious?

        With Chet Edwards, I figured it was serious. He was a long-serving congressman from a red state that might make the ticket seem more appealing to those outside of the coastal and urban areas.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:48:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I remember Reid or some Dem senator (5+ / 0-)

          suggesting Sotomayor as SCOTUS nominee for Bush. Too cute by a half, I guess, since she had long been considered at the top of the short list for a Democratic president.

          More plausibly, I think Reid suggested several GOP senators he thought would be confirmed easily for SCOTUS.

          Dont remember him specifically suggesting Miers as a nominee, but when her nomination failed, I think Bush explained it by saying a lot of senators had said they wanted someone who wasnt a judge. And that's true. You even heard that for the Obama vacancies, which is why names like Deval Patrick or Janet Napolitano were one the speculation list.

          •  I thought suggesting someone (0+ / 0-)

            your party would confirm but that the other side wouldn't was standard practice, kind of like voting in unison on the debt ceiling when the vote wouldn't matter. Cute, yes, but ultimately meaningless.

            I need to add this chapter of the Bush presidency, along with more about the firing of the AGs, to the list of things I need to learn more about.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:20:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Was the Veneman speculation real? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, itskevin, wadingo

      I had always thought it was just something the campaign leaked out to try to suck more air of the McCain campaign.

      •  I wondered about that, too. (0+ / 0-)

        I mean, if you really, truly want a Republican woman, why not Snowe, Collins, Todd-Whitman, or someone else a little more high profile?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:49:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  SCOTUS today heard a challenge to (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JGibson, wadingo

    three recess appointments Obama made to the NLRB in 2011.

    Arguments apparently did not go well for the admin. I know, hard to read to much into that, given that you could say the same about ACA and the SB1070.

    And I think pretty much every president loses some cases at the SCOTUS and this would relatively minor, compared to, say,  having Obamacare struck down or having DOMA upheld.

    But nevertheless, if they do rule against the admin, even narrowly, expect screaming headlines about Obama abusing his powers. McConnell in particular could get boost from it, since I think he and other Republican senators are challenging this.  

    •  It's actually not minor in my view (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, wadingo, sulthernao, nimh

      In divided government it would allow the party out of the executive branch to basically shut executive agencies down or keep them hobbled out of spite.

    •  SCOTUS Arguments seemingly never go well (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, wadingo, sulthernao

      for Obama Admin.  Really needs to think about replacing Verrilli, unless the strategy facing a 5-4 Conservative Court is to look bad on purpose to play to the ego's there or something.

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:53:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not saying there arent better lawyers out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wadingo

        there, but I wonder how much of the issue is Verilli and how much is just the nature of the case. I mean, the admin did end up largely winning on ACA and SB1070, and I dont know if another lawyer could have done better on that.

        •  Facing a 5-4 court... (0+ / 0-)

          And from the transcripts I read in some of the bigger cases, it sounds to me that Verrilli plays to the ego's, looking like an ill prepared sucker and allowing the conservative Justices to feel high and mighty over him with the hope being that they won't feel the need to stick it to the Obama Admin via their decision if they get to beat up on his SG.

          Of course I'm far from a lawyer and don't know if this makes a lick of sense.  

          Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

          by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:27:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not much of a chance on this one (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, wadingo, sulthernao, gabjoh

            Don't put this on Verrilli. I can personally say that Don was always very good in the oral arguments I had with him in the 90s. This was never a case where any president's position like that asserted by Obama and his predecessors was likely to prevail. While I think the Court will not buy the position that the DC Circuit took on which session the vacancy being filled had to occur or that the vacancy couldn't arise in the same term of the Senate, I can't see any possible majority that let's any President unilaterally decide when the Senate is actually in session. To do so would be an almost unprecedented intrusion into another branch 's inner workings. I know that other presidents have made appointments more or less as Obama did for a long time but this is one of those legal issues that the Court never wants to see before it. Once it does, though, it's going to take the avenue of the least intrusion into the relationship between the opposing two branches. Here that is plainly letting the Senate set up and follow its own rules as to when it is in session absent a clear abuse as to the application of the term "recess."

    •  I thought Roberts supported recess appointments... (5+ / 0-)

      and encouraged Obama to make them and didn't know what all the political fuss was about with the GOP appointment obstructions.  Recess appointments are constitiutional and serve an important purpose, and if Congress then plays games by never officially going into recess, that's an end around to strip the executive of this power.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:55:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-11 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Gygaxian

    DownWithTyranny's Howie Klein floated California State Superintendent Tom Torlakson as a potential candidate for the U.S. House seat that is currently occupied by the retiring George Miller.

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:38:19 AM PST

  •  Jersey City mayor's claims validated (13+ / 0-)

    http://online.wsj.com/...

    Documents released Monday indicate that meetings arranged between top commissioners to Gov. Chris Christie and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop were abruptly canceled without reason last year—providing evidence of Mr. Fulop's claim that he was cut off after he decided not to endorse the governor.

    The documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal through a public records request showed communications between Mr. Fulop and Christie administration staff members arranging the meetings in June and July, until the commissioners all canceled one meeting after another.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:52:01 AM PST

    •  Christie's in a box like Lance Armstrong (6+ / 0-)

      if he was shown to have known (either before or after the incident) and didn't do anything (or covered up) until it was found out, he's done.  If he tried to cover it up, that's grounds for impeachment for obstructing justice and/or destroying evidence.

      "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:07:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's why a big part of me believes (0+ / 0-)

        he's not behind it.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:13:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But if he knew, then he's still screwed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sulthernao

          not impeachment worthy unless he did illegal stuff to hide it, but will bring calls for resignation.

          "You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts. You don't hate! Only the unloved hate — the unloved and the unnatural!" -Charlie Chaplin

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:20:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And if he didn't know (4+ / 0-)

            then he's flat-out incompetent as an administrator and deserves to have his career end anyway.

          •  Maybe. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, sulthernao

            One of the reasons some on the other side survive scandals is that they have the balls to take cover and just hum until the firing ends. It's still early, and if his horse looks like it might win, he'll get the proper backing. It might not be enough to get through a primary, but I wouldn't be surprised, in the event of him knowing/ordering it but not covering up, him trying anyway, unless he can't find anyone to take his calls a year or so down the line.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:52:53 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's not well liked in GOP circles outside... (4+ / 0-)

              Outside the Villagers  - Here's a peak at his RNC antics

              http://www.msnbc.com/...

              Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

              by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:32:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Worship of Self? that sums up Christie immensely (0+ / 0-)

                This humbling experience is probably good for him in that way.

                בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

                by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:35:30 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  If there are signs he's (0+ / 0-)

                the best bet to take back the White House from the Islamic Kenyan Socialist, that would likely be water under the bridge. That's a big, big if, however.

                You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:19:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  How would he be taking it back for them (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wadingo

                  when he's pretty much a Democrat already in their eyes?

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:21:49 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Who are we talking about? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    nimh

                    No doubt he isn't an extreme conservative, but I don't think any of the clear-thinking monied interests in the Republican party think Christie is a Democrat. Some on the other side might, but those are most likely mainly on the less powerful base end. There were some obstacles in his way before this came out, and there are more now, but if he were to be in a position where he wouldn't be immediately disqualified for ethical or legal reasons AND he looked competitive, I think he could make a competitive play. Lots of ifs there, no doubt, but there are those in power that would back whomever looked like he could win. Those that are reluctant will, for the most part, come around.

                    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                    by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:46:55 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  That will be believed only if... (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  ...the other candidates are clowns, just like Romney's rivals.  That happened last time because deep down inside, all the credible would-bes decided to themselves that the odds were just too long to beat Obama.  For all the President's polling vulnerabilities and the periodic doom trolling, I think a lot of people who told the public and themselves that he could be beaten, deep down inside really doubted it.

                  That's not going to happen in an open seat Presidency.  I don't think Hillary is going to get the same deference, simply because she's not the incumbent plus she did lose the nomination last time.

                  So Christie isn't going to get a free pass like Romney did.  Someone like Scott Walker or John Thune or someone else will jump in there as a credible rival.

                  45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:02:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm not saying I believe it. (0+ / 0-)

                    I'm just saying that if he is in the position of Romney, where he looks like the best bet, even if that's the least shitty out of a bunch of shitty bests, he won't be immediately dismissed. That is to say, if Walker or Thune or Bush doesn't run, and if Christie is still in office, I wouldn't disregard him. Again, a lot of big ifs.

                    It's funny that you mention how people didn't believe they could beat Obama. I've mentioned before that Christie was quoted, in an article about how he was pressured by GOP figures to run as saying he knew he could beat Obama, but didn't run for some reason. This begs the question, why the hell didn't you run? Unless you're family is sick or something, you have no reason to not run if you're that sure. I get why he might be bullshitting, but someone should have called him out on that.

                    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                    by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:11:28 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  The issue that is more likely to sink him IMO (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32, bjssp, wadingo, sulthernao

            is the IG investigation into the use of Sandy funds to produce what were essentially campaign ads.

            •  Are they talking about those (0+ / 0-)

              stronger than the storm ads?

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:19:40 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bjssp, wadingo, sulthernao

                Apparently there was a $2.5 million proposal that would have had the ads not featuring Christie and family. The state awarded a contract for $4.7 million to a company that did put them in the ads.

                The ads ran in the summer of 2013, just as Christie's reelection campaign was kicking off in earnest. So we have some questions as to whether the federal government just subsidized the Christie reelection campaign to the tune of $2.2 million. HUD IG is investigating, since they were the ones that gave Sandy relief grants to the states.

                •  I found those ads (0+ / 0-)

                  pretty annoying, but not nearly as annoying as the cover-band riff on Paul Simon's "Here Comes the Sun" that was playing in the late fall/early winter advertising New York's comeback from Sandy. I have no reason to mention this except that I quickly changed the channel any time they came on, usually late at night; that's how much they annoyed me.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:48:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Ignorance is a poor excuse (6+ / 0-)

          As an executive, you need to know what is going on and if you don't, then that not acceptable. It's hard to believe that he didn't know what was happening, though.

          27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:27:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  TN-03: For what it's worth, Weston Wamp (6+ / 0-)

    primarying chuck Fleishmann again.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:04:34 AM PST

  •  Senate races (9+ / 0-)

    As I did for House and Governor, I've got my rankings for the Senate.  Once again, I list them in order of vulnerability, rather than just slotting them in various categories.  Criticism and other comments always welcome.

    Offense
    (I think the line is currently here)
    KY (McConnell, possibly Bevin): I put this as our best shot, though either Republican has a slight edge over Grimes.
    GA (Open, Chambliss): If it's Broun, this goes up a spot.  If not, it probably stays here and is only an outside chance for Nunn.

    Defense
    SD (Open, Johnson): Just about the surest flip.  Weiland might actually come in third place after Pressler.
    WV (Open, Rockefeller): We got the candidate we wanted in WV.  But so did they, for once.  We're in trouble.
    AR (Pryor): Going to be close either way, but I think the state is not done with its rightward shift.
    MT (Open, Baucus): I expect this to be a tossup to the end like in previous Montana senate elections, but I think our luck finally runs out this year.
    (I think the line is currently here)
    LA (Landrieu): Also very threatened, but I think her popularity is more resilient than Pryor's, and the state not as hostile to Democrats as AR.
    AK (Begich): He's done everything right, but unless the GOP nominates Miller again, this will be close to the end.
    NC (Hagan): I feel much better about her chances, just because Obama actually won the state once.  The GOP field is also terrible.
    MI (Open, Levin): Republicans seem to think they have a shot, but we are fundamentally favored here in non GOP waves.
    IA (Open, Harkin): Republicans similarly insist something can happen here, but Braley should stroll to a high single digit victory.
    CO (Udall): I include this only on the off chance that somehow Republicans stop Buck from winning the primary.  If he does again, it goes to safe.

    •  You should make a diaries on races (0+ / 0-)

      I haven't started mines yet cause I'm too lazy.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:34:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More or less agree (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      though I'd swap MT and AR and IA and MI but those last three I don't see as being in reach for the GOP yet anyway. Nor do I really think GA, SD, and WV are for us (assuming Tennant's fundraising is about as active as her campaign in the media).

    •  If 2014 is a neutral year (5+ / 0-)

      Which I believe it will be. Then we should do well in the Senate. Are open seats  in deep red territory in South Dakota and West Virginia are pretty much gone. I already have those written off. Montana we'll lose as well because Walsh will be a appointed Senator, not a complete incumbent.

      The only seat we'll win IMO and I truly believe this is Georgia. That state is ripe for the picking and is moving to our direction., and everybody in the GOP primary are going to outright each other. Kingston has been taking bumps lately and Gingrey is having staff issues, giving Broun even further more of a opening. The GOP are going to have another nomination failure, in which the Dems will take advantage of. So we'll lose 3 seats an gain 1.

      And we're going to pick up at least 4 governorships in PA, FL, ME, AND MI while possibly losing one in Arkansas.

      For the house I say we pick up 5-9 seats.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:40:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why is everyone so down on WV? (0+ / 0-)

        SD I understand, to a large degree, but what did I miss about WV?

        Also, what do you think about KY or GA?

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:36:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  West Virginia (7+ / 0-)

          PPP found Capito beating Tennant 50-36.

          Ultimately, Capito (if she can get past her tea party primary challenger) is a very strong politician...surviving West Virginia politics even when the state had a huge Blue Dog preference.  She has a crossover appeal with these Demosaurs that other WV Republicans have failed to cultivate (like John Raese).

          Tennant is a strong get, but I feel like this is the year that West Virginia will decide to elect a GOP Senator.

          •  also (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, Skaje, bjssp

            If I'm not mistaken that same poll showed Tennant with leads over other potential GOP candidates. Capito is ahead because she's personally popular in a state where candidates and campaigns are unusually important.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:28:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sacman701, jncca, Possible Liberal, nimh

              they had Tennant up 42-32 on McGeehan (the tea partier running to Capito's right).  So yeah, pray to the gods that Republicans are dumb enough to choose McGeehan over Capito, but I'm not counting on it.  From that same poll, they had Capito beating McGeehan 72% to 4% in the GOP primary, so uh yeah.

              I think West Virginia might actually be the one red state to reject movement tea partier conservatism, and rather prefer a kind of socially conservative, pro-coal, pro-earmark, WV-first Republican politician.  Similar to the Democrats the state has elected...but just with an (R) after their name instead.  Congressman McKinley seems to be the kind of politician they'll go for as they transition to a fully red state, and he's hardly a Ted Cruz type.

          •  Good call on the PPP poll. (0+ / 0-)

            Still, it's early, and Tennant looks to be a sharp candidate.

            I'd like to be even a little hopeful about SD, but someone said yesterday that Weiland might finish third.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:21:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Because it's a lost cause (0+ / 0-)

          Skaje explained it better than I could. And quite frankly, I don't think the DSCC should waste time or the money for the seat.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:20:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  and my thoughts on KY and GA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            Is that Grimes will make it a very close race and run a good campaign, but McConnell still wins at the end of the day. And for Georgia, as I already stated, I have Nunn winning.

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:24:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'd want to know what Dem internal polls (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, James Allen, bjssp

            on Capito's vulnerabilities before agreeing it's a lost cause like South Dakota, but so far it is looking like she's the overwhelming favorite. Still she was the only person in the delegation to vote to privatize Medicare and has had an otherwise party line conservative record in a very elderly state that is reliant on the federal government whether is realizes it or not.

            •  Yup (0+ / 0-)

              I wouldn't quite call it a lost cause, but definitely "GOP Favored" and something has to happen, both on the local and national scale, to shake up this race and give us a significant chance of holding it.

              •  I feel better about GA than KY. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BKGyptian89

                People are paying a lot to the KY race but I think GA is far more winnable the GOP field is pathetic probably the worst group of candidates I've ever seen. Nunn is getting some crossover support from Rs like Warner and Lugar and has some pretty impressive fundraising numbers. I think it's very likely Gingrey, Kingston, or Broun will say something stupid since most of them already have in the primary.

                •  I definitely agree (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BKGyptian89, Skaje, itskevin, bjssp

                  I think Secy. Grimes is a great candidate, and Sen. McConnell's numbers are clearly very soft. But trendlines are a lot better for us in Georgia than they are in Kentucky (understatement of the century), and Michelle Nunn reminds me a lot of now-Sens. Heidi Heitkamp and Mark Begich -- a quiet, efficient, and diligent workhorse who knows how to build cross-party coalitions and avoid controversy.

                  Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:14:40 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I would rather bet on Demosaurs in Kentucky (0+ / 0-)

                    than right-leaning suburbs coming through for me in a midterm.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:21:39 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Plus the state party has its act together. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      JBraden

                      In fact, the KDP might be, on average, the best state party. It's certainly near the top.

                      Also still, McConnell isn't popular.

                      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                      by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:17:32 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  Georgia is the sleeper race this cycle (0+ / 0-)

                  And it shouldn't be a surprise we score victory there. I see another nomination fail here for the GOP. Just like in Nevada, Colorado, Delaware, Missouri and Indiana.

                  NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

                  by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:32:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Definitely a crappy group in GA. (0+ / 0-)

                  They make last year's crop of presidential candidates look statesmanlike, yet sadly, any one of them might be a senator.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:13:29 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  The problem with GA (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  madmojo, bjssp, JBraden

                  is that it requires a runoff if neither candidate hits 50%+1. Given that GA Dems rely so much on unreliable minorities, that means we need a pretty big victory for Nunn. We have to hit 50%+1 in Nov 14. We can't rely on the runoff.

                  Still, I'm going to go out on a limb and say we win both seats. Nunn and ALG are very strong candidates facing very weak candidates in states with historical affinity for Democrats. They're both "brand" names, and they both have high fundraising potential through their families and familial contacts. They've both been polling very competitively; one with an incumbent in the low-forties, always a bad sign, and another with highly damaged and controversial incumbent Republicans tainted by the shutdown.

                  Of course, our gains here will be offset by a sure loss in SD and a very likely loss in WV, unless this recent chemical spill makes people take a second look at the EPA and decide it's not so bad after all. Plus MT is a wildcard, AR is in "no bueno" territory, and AK is very hard to poll. This season is going to be quite exciting for DKE.

                  TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

                  by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:26:49 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  As of today I agree (0+ / 0-)

      -4.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:30:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  No vote on HJR-3 today (9+ / 0-)

    from the Judiciary Committee after a 3.5 hour hearing. They were expected to take a vote. I listened to the hearing and the chairman did not give a date when they would reconvene for a vote. The committee is 9-4 GOP, so I wonder if three of their members got cold feet.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:58:05 AM PST

    •  They lost two votes during testimony (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wadingo, PassionateJus, SouthernINDem

      And the chair didn't want to bring to a vote the amendment with only 7 votes, at least one of which is soft.

      28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

      by IndyLiberal on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:51:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is the last swing vote (0+ / 0-)

        Rep. Wendy McNamara (R-Mt. Vernon)?

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:35:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Her vote is very crucial, yes. (0+ / 0-)

          28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

          by IndyLiberal on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:32:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I've changed my sig to have my full Hebrew name (5+ / 0-)

    in the style of Masoretic Text Hebrew.

    בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:06:25 AM PST

    •  Off topic, but since (0+ / 0-)

      I keep forgetting to ask this, and since you brought up being Jewish, what's the activity called where they take a man in a chair at a wedding and go around in a circle? I don't care if I sound completely daft saying this, but I always thought that looked pretty cool.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:10:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's an Ashkenazi tradition (0+ / 0-)

        like breaking a glass at the moment the knot is tied.  

        בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:26:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hah! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Caped Composer, gabjoh

        It never occurred to me to ask whether it had a name, but there were exactly two things I wanted to do at my wedding: break the glass and get carried around in chairs during the hora. (That's the dance during which this activity is usually undertaken, often to the song Hava Nagilah.) And typically, it's both the bride and the groom, and often the parents as well. (Though not everyone at once!)

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:43:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Although at least at most weddings I've been to (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv

          the bride and groom are lifted simultaneously and generally are expected to hold hands.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:59:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think they should have the opposing party (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Darth Jeff

          do that at inaugurations. Perhaps it would instill a bit of respect for the president.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:22:52 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  so (0+ / 0-)

      your name is the Hebrew version of Barack, then?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:42:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Baruch was my grandfather and his twin brother's (0+ / 0-)

        Hebrew name.  Since both have passed on, I can take on their Hebrew name as my own and not violate the Ashkenazi taboo against naming someone in honor of a still-living person.

        My father's Hebrew name is Mordechai, so the Hebrew letters translate to "Baruch ben [son of] Mordechai."

        בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:50:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-11 (12+ / 0-)

    Mark DeSaulnier is in:

    The announcement by the liberal stalwart has set off a scramble of Bay Area politicians seeking to replace him. Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord told The Bee he expected to run for the 11th Congressional District.

    "I'm playing phone tag with him right now. George is a really good friend," DeSaulnier said. "I wish him well and I would love to replace him in Congress. "It was always my intention to run."

    Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:20:14 AM PST

  •  How Similar Is The Current LA-06..... (0+ / 0-)

    ....to the one Don Cazayoux won in the 2008 special election?  I'm guessing redder.

  •  I wonder if Garamendi will retire next? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Obviously since I don't live in California I don't know the dynamic there and I know very little about Garamendi, but he seems to be the same age as George Miller, and it doesn't seem like he has much opportunity for advancement inside the House.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:39:10 AM PST

  •  Plurality favor guaranteed job, but not income. (7+ / 0-)

    YouGov has an interesting poll out concerning issues that are never discussed in the national media.

    Americans favor government-guaranteed employment 47%-41%, but oppose a guaranteed income 35%-54%. There is basically no representation in government for anyone who favors any of these proposals.

    Please don't take this as an invitation to debate these issues here.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 12:54:49 PM PST

  •  CA-11: Khanna says he won't run, but some (5+ / 0-)

    California Democrats believe he may reconsider.

    http://thehill.com/...

  •  CA-11: What's the story on DeSaulnier (0+ / 0-)

    being a former Repbulican? His wiki says he was active in Republican politics until 2000.

    •  Some information (5+ / 0-)

      http://www.contracostatimes.com/...

      A former restaurateur whose establishment, TR's, was named after President Theodore Roosevelt, DeSaulnier was a Republican when he launched his political career by winning a Concord City Council seat in 1991. In 1994, Gov. Pete Wilson appointed him to a vacancy on the county Board of Supervisors, where he served until his 2006 Assembly election and 2008 ascension to the Senate.

      His party switch in 2000, like most of his decisions, was long and ponderous. But once he went, he did so with a vengeance, transforming from a centrist Republican into a liberal, pro-labor Democrat.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 01:59:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think it was Nate Silver (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, sulthernao, David Nir

        that actually cataloged just how rapidly most politicians change their voting records and political ideologies after switching parties.  You'd think just from how polarized the parties are, that a moderate party switcher would likely be a moderate in their new party as well.  But in practice, they quickly line up with the mainstream base of their new party.

        Considering the switch was 14 years ago, I'm sure DeSaulnier would be a solid liberal in Congress.

      •  My state senator (0+ / 0-)

        Jerry Hill was a Republican until 2003 and he was on the San Mateo Board of Supervisors when he made his switch. When Hill first ran for the state assembly in 2008 his primary opponents tried to make hay over that especially in their mailers.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:10:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  His political transformation (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, nimh, geoneb

        suggests that not only his restaurant was inspired by Teddy Roosevelt.  TR, while a Republican did try to move his party in a more progressive direction, offering a "square deal" for the people as well as corporations, and when he failed at that he left (at least temporarily) to become a Bull Moose Progressive, emphasizing a lot of positions now considered liberal or pro-labor, from national health insurance to curbing corporate size and influence.  If Teddy were to come back and start over in politics today he might well just go to the Democratic side, in light of the current GOP's obesiance to plutocrats and big business and the lack of Dixiecrats in today's Democratic Party.

        Speaking of Teddy Roosevelt and restaurants, a recent addition in DC is "Teddy & the Bully Bar", a TR-inspired establishment that emphasizes simple food with fresh game, as he liked to hunt and eat, and cocktails from or inspired by those of the 19th and early 20th centuries.  It's located across the street from where TR lived in 1897-98 as Assistant Secretary of the Navy (on 19th Street, near Dupont Circle.)

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:20:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He's had a real change of heart. (6+ / 0-)

      He was an active Republican in the mid to late 1990s, but now is a solid liberal and nobody questions it.  It's certainly a bit strange and relatively rare, but (with Wikipedia's help):

      Former non-Dixiecrat Democrats: Sam Hayakawa, Chris Smith, Mike Johanns, Vito Fossella, Susana Martinez, John Hoeven,

      Former Republicans: Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta, Don Riegle, John Yarmuth, Mike Doyle, Loretta Sanchez, Elizabeth Warren, Carolyn McCarthy, Gabby Giffords, Jim Webb, Charlie Crist

      Note that not all of these were politically active in their previous parties like DeSaulnier was and some (like Dean and Clinton) switched at pretty young ages, but others switched pretty shortly before entering elected office, like Doyle, McCarthy, and Sanchez

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:06:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It looks like it was probably a Lincoln Chafee (0+ / 0-)

      kind of thing.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:49:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Domina. (4+ / 0-)

    I'm not sure if it's such a silly decision to choose the senate race over NE-02. It's an open senate seat, and Nebraska does elect Democrats to the senate. The Republican senate candidates are B-list at best - a former state treasurer and a university president.

    Maybe Domina doesn't have the best profile as a wealthy trial lawyer, but we don't seem to have anyone else. He's striking tones of the usual midwestern type of moderation, but with the notable addition of economic populism.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:28:13 PM PST

    •  He seems very intelligent (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, gabjoh, nimh

      He's done a few cases involving agricultural law, and I think this line on his website could definitely be converted into a powerful campaign advert in rural areas.

      Mr Domina has: Won a jury verdict of more than $1.26 billion on behalf of cattlemen against the nation's largest slaughter house for market manipulation.
      I also checked out a facebook page urging him to run, and there was a video of him doing a keynote speech at the Nebraska Farmer's Union, which was very impressive, both in terms of substance and his presentation (spoke over 35 mins with no notes).

      My only concern is that whilst his ideas are extremely well informed and researched, they may be too intelligent. There are some parts in that speech where he analyses policy issues with incredible depth, which would probably lose 90% of voters trying to understand him.

      Whilst I wouldn't expect him to win, I reckon he'd definitely run a very respectable campaign, especially if it is against an ambitious pol with little actual knowledge and too many talking points. A debate would definitely be worth watching as well.

    •  I'm just assuming... (6+ / 0-)

      He read on Daily Kos Elections the other day about NE-Sen being moved to Safe R for lack of a Democratic candidate, and decided that shit ain't right.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:15:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  NE did at one time (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Bob Kerrey lost badly to a pretty second-tier candidate last cycle, and he was a former senator.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:37:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kerrey is terrible. (0+ / 0-)

        If Heitkamp can win in North Dakota, then Democrats can't be giving up on a state like Nebraska. According to Gallup, North Dakota is tied for second for the highest percentage of self-identifying conservative. Tied with frickin' Wyoming. Nebraska is 7th.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:47:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm more than willing to conclude (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, James Allen, JBraden

          That Heitkamp is a one-in-a-big-number candidate.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:20:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Heitkamp (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            David Nir, Jorge Harris, madmojo, JBraden

            was probably our biggest/best non-incumbent recruitment get in a previous Senate election (excluding the current cycle, given that we don't know the results yet) in about a decade.

            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:23:16 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yes, I think I would agree (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, Darth Jeff, trowaman

              Heitkamp was launched to our planet in a tiny rocket ship by her father, Kal-Mel, where she was warmed by the yellow rays of the Earth's sun....

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:33:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                David Nir

                You have to go back to Tim Johnson's election in 1996 to get something roughly comparable, and even that doesn't do what Heitkamp accomplished justice given that he was a sitting Representative elected to the whole state whereas she hadn't been on the ballot in ten years challenging someone who had been just two years prior and was elected from the whole state and South Dakota 1996 versus North Dakota 2012 is miles different in antipathy towards Democrats in a way that makes Heitkamp look even more astounding.

                24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 10:41:33 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Her victory was impressive, but (0+ / 0-)

                  is it comparable to other races? Surely we can exclude a lot of them from the comparisons, not because the challengers candidates didn't win, which as you and I know is normal, but because many of them didn't come close. Maybe there's a smaller sample than I realize, and that not only is Heitkamp's victory impressive since she won, but that it would have been impressive merely had she gotten close. Still, I think there's reason for hope for this type of race. She did win, and she didn't do it because of an Akin-style gaffe. It's harder in some of the small states, particularly in that area of the country, since there are fewer opportunities to have incumbents and since the states lean to the right in general. Hard, but not impossible, I think. It's made harder by gerrymandering at the congressional level and the state legislative level, but I'd bet there aren't that many areas of the country that flat out refuse to vote for one party or the other.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 11:01:18 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Something I'm noticing about Michigan polls (4+ / 0-)

    biased as they may be, I'm seeing Peters only outperforming Schauer by a few points at most.  If this is true (and it's really hard to say...garbage in, garbage out), then I feel pretty good about Schauer beating Snyder, since I expect Peters to win the Senate race fairly easily.

  •  FL-2: Graham over $1M COH (13+ / 0-)

    and has raised almost 500k again for the 4Q.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 02:59:42 PM PST

  •  FL-13 Primary is tomorrow (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh, SunshineSocialist

    Obviously Sink wins the Dem nomination but what about the GOP spot? Any last minute numbers that can indicate a clear winner?

    18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04.

    by SCDem4 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:21:42 PM PST

  •  Don't know how accurate Google polls are, but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, PassionateJus

    If they are, 41% of Utahns now support marriage equality.What a change a couple of weeks can bring.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:26:19 PM PST

    •  Um, wow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, bythesea

      I knew something was up when there was such a muted reaction from the Church and Utahn social media circles to the Kitchen ruling. But 41 percent support for same-sex marriage statewide, up from the 20s last year? That's enormous.

      Maybe Utahns noticed, as I did, that the earth did not open up and swallow Provo, St. George, and American Fork whole for affronting God last month. Funny, that.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:37:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know that level seems awfully high (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, jncca

        that would seem to indicate national support for gay marriage is well into the 60s. I would expect Utah, the Deep South, and Appalachia to lag far, far behind the rest of the country in approval for same sex marriage.

        •  From what I understand (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          the last gay marriage poll in Utah was taken in 2012 and indicated 36% support for civil unions or gay marriage. That's up from the 24% support in 2004, when the original ban was enacted.

          So it's not that crazy, though I would like to know more about the reliability of such polls.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:51:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Civil unions though are basically no longer (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, gabjoh

            in any way controversial. I'd bet they're at least the plurality position in every single state except maybe Oklahoma if that. When PPP polls this issue they ask with the choice of "marriage" "civil unions" "no recognition" and the last one is horribly unpopular except in places like Mississippi.

            To put this another way, I would bet you there are a lot of Mormon Democrats who are solid Dem voters (except maybe in 2012) but don't support same sex marriage because of their religious beliefs. Polling has shown a similar thing among African-Americans in the Deep South who have a propensity to vote Dem every single time but are also very highly religious.

            •  I would bet there aren't as many... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Gygaxian

              As you might think.

              It's not always apples-to-apples to compare the Mormon and Catholic churches, or their adherents. For one, Mormonism is almost inherently politicized; it has belonged to the anti-government wing of American politics since its inception, and nestled in the bosom of the gun-totin', librul-hatin' Republican Party, there it remains. And for another, while Catholicism is a BFD in several important places in the United States (the cities of Boston and Pittsburgh and the state of Maryland spring swiftly to mind), it can't be said that the Holy See dominates the politics of a state or grouping of states the way the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints dominates Utah (and, to a considerably lesser extent, Arizona and Idaho).

              But consider this: Catholic Democrats are liberal -- and they do tend to be liberal -- in spite of church dogma. The Vatican says abortion is murder and homosexuality is an abomination and Catholic Democrats simply don't give a shit. They're Democrats anyway. And once they've crossed that Rubicon of not giving a shit about dogma and practicing their own politics anyway, well, they've crossed it. They're Catholics, but they're also Democrats, and they simply aren't interested in applying church teachings to politics. Never the twain shall meet.

              I don't think there are a whole ton of Mormon Democrats, but there are some, and I think it's probably similar for them. If they really hung on to everything their church leaders told them, they wouldn't be Democrats at all -- so they don't, and it frees them. Sen. Reid is a great example. Sure, he's nominally anti-choice, but does his personal opposition to abortion affect the way he leads his caucus or sets priorities in the Senate? I would argue there hasn't been any evidence of that at all -- because he's free. He can be a Mormon and a Democrat, and never the twain shall meet.

              Sure, you have exceptions to the rule. Sen. Bob Casey is a famously anti-choice Catholic Democrat, for example (and I think abortion is just generally a more contentious issue, one that doesn't always split along religious or ideological lines, than marriage equality -- and one that will divide Americans for far longer). But by and large, the prevalence of religious liberals doesn't surprise me that much. It's just a case of selective hearing.

              Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

              by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:12:03 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I would mostly agree (0+ / 0-)

                Though I would note that early Utah (as a state, that is) had a lot of progressive influence; we elected the first female state senator (Martha Hughes Cannon, who was very progressive herself), we elected one of the first Jewish Governors around WW1 (Simon Bamberger, a very progressive governor), we had two progressive governors during the Great Depression (George Dern and Henry H Blood, then Herbert Maw after the Depression), we had a liberal in the Senate (Frank Moss, who admittedly was only originally elected due to an independent splitting the vote), and we even had a very liberal LDS Apostle, Hugh B Brown.

                So we have a progressive legacy, it's just that it was far enough back that no one remembers it, especially not Mormons. We kind of went ultra-conservative after WW2 ended and the Cold War started. We had already been inching along towards conservatism after becoming a state, but the Red Scare caused Mormons and Utahns as a whole to try to become as "normal" and as bedrock 1950s conservative as possible.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:00:15 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  It does seem high (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, PassionateJus

          Then again, Utah media had pretty sympathetic coverage of the state's 17 days of marriage equality -- having ready-made villains in the form of the county clerks that refused to grant marriage licenses and the disgraced attorney general's office tripping over itself to demand a judicial stay on Christmas Eve probably helped the cause, on balance -- and as I said, the sky didn't fall (and more to the point, the vast majority of Utahns were completely unaffected by the ruling).

          We saw this phenomenon in Iowa, a fairly socially conservative state, when gay marriage became legal through a judicial ruling there. Opposition to gay marriage rapidly softened and melted away once Iowans realized, "Hey, the fact that two dudes or two ladies can marry each other in my state doesn't actually mean anything bad for me or anyone else!" Even though Utah is the beating heart of Mormondom on Earth and a bastion of the socially conservative Republican Party, I wonder if the same thing hasn't happened there.

          Even the Church, while making it abundantly clear it opposes gay marriage, has been rather measured in its statements and did not organize politically in any obvious way to push back on the ruling. It could have come out in support of certain clerks' "conscientious decision to obey the Law of God" or some such malarkey in refusing to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples; instead, it stayed mostly silent, and resistance among certain conservative county governments to abiding by the ruling melted away in a matter of days. Hardly the fire-breathing foe of marriage equality I remember from the fight over Proposition 8 in California.

          Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:58:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Some clarification on the 2012 polling (0+ / 0-)

          Freedom To Marry says that it's 36% support for gay marriage (do a ctrl-f for Utah), while a BYU poll from the same time period said that only 29% of Utahns support same-sex marriage, but 48% support civil unions and 71% support some sort of legal recognition of same-sex couples.

          Very confusing numbers overall, but there seems to be an increasing support of marriage equality and LGBT relationships overall.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:01:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  What Might Have Happened: Tons of Stories (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, JBraden

          about nice gay and lesbian couples with children getting married.

          Probably most people never really thought about same sex marriage before and were instinctively just against it.

          Now they see that some of their neighbors are effected positively by it.

    •  National polls show (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      support for marriage equality getting into the high 50s.  Given that marriage equality undeniably underperforms the Dem baseline in the South (because of socially conservative Democrats), it would follow that it should overperform it elsewhere.  I would expect that phenomenon to be strong in relatively non-religious western states like Wyoming, Montana, and Alaska, but I'm surprised to see it in Utah (for what the poll's worth).  

  •  IA-01: That's not a bad haul for Kajtazovic. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian
  •  will Rob Andrews get the Ed and Labor spot (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    in 2015 with Miller retiring? I've heard he has some baggage that could hurt him. The guy who might challenge him is Bobby Scott.

    follow me at: http://rumromerebellion.wordpress.com/

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:39:10 PM PST

    •  Ugh I hope not. (0+ / 0-)

      Andrews sucks, totally corrupt.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:13:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So after my recent diary (12+ / 0-)

    about Blue Dog losses, I've been thinking a bit about the defections post-2010.  That is, after the Republicans had already taken the House, and meaningful Dem legislation was dead for the foreseeable future.  After that point, Dem defections have largely been for Republican bills, rather than against Dem bills.  However, many of these Republican bills (like ACA repeal for instance) were guaranteed to go nowhere in the Senate, and even if they did, face certain vetoes from Obama.

    The difference now is that Democratic votes in the House are largely irrelevant, except in rare instances where Boehner allows votes to pass with only a minority of GOP support.

    So I think the post-2010 Dem defections must be looked at in a different light.  In fact, some of them only make sense that way.  Take Rep. Dan Maffei (NY-24).  Elected in 2008, defeated in 2010, back in 2012.  Main-page Dailykos was advocating for a primary challenger to him, because of his votes for the GOP continuing resolutions during the shutdown.  I went back and checked my lists to see which votes he defected on during the 2008-2010 session...as it turns out, none of them!  He voted for every single Dem bill, voted against the Stupak Amendment, declined to join the Blue Dogs, is pro-choice and for marriage equality...by all measures, well in the mainstream liberal wing of the party.  So why did he vote for the GOP resolutions, which were widely understood to be messaging gimmicks designed to gain ground during the shutdown?

    Or take Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2012, who was described as having a liberal reputation in Arizona politics, and it was feared that she might actually be too liberal to win a swingy seat like AZ-09.  She also voted for the resolutions.

    And the others...Steven Horsford, Sean Patrick Maloney, Raul Ruiz...does anyone really believe they rank among the most conservative Democrats in the House?  There's another, quite obvious correlation between all of them: freshmen in somewhat competitive seats.

    I'm a firm subscriber to the theory that congressional leadership (of both parties) regularly allow defections on bills when the end result isn't close, in order to shore up the bipartisan credentials of vulnerable members.  When viewed that way, the above Democrats' government shutdown votes aren't so problematic, and may even be seen as smart politics given they were going to pass anyway.

    The next time Democrats have complete control, party discipline will be quite important in getting things done, and a repeat of the discordant 2009-2010 session would not be in our best interests.  But for now, I'm willing to give reps like Maffei and Sinema the benefit of the doubt.  I truly do think our targets for primary challengers should be among the known offenders, those who broke ranks during the best opportunity Democrats had to make meaningful progressive legislation.  Congressmen like Dan Lipinski.  Steve Lynch.  Jim Cooper.

    Give Maffei and the rest some time to get secure in their seats.

    •  I think (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, gabjoh

      this is exactly right.

      However, there are some GOP bills such as a repeal of Obamacare for example, that are so core to Democratic politics that you don't want to see folks (other than McIntyre, Barrow, etc) ending up on the wrong side of a vote like that.

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:46:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I wish we would primary... (5+ / 0-)

      Reps. Cooper, Lipinski, Visclosky, and other such wastes of space now, not wait until later. Instead we have self-aggrandizing opportunists like Ro Khanna and Ellen Corbett mounting personal-advancement primary challenges against perfectly good Democrats like Reps. Mike Honda and Eric Swalwell. Hell, I'm no fan of Rep. Tierney, but I'd much rather have a contested primary in MA-08 than MA-06.

      Republicans at least know they get more mileage gunning for their "moderates" than they do with Republicans challenging equally conservative Republicans (the TN-03, TX-Sen, and abortive WY-Sen being examples that prove the rule in this regard). Democrats seem to take the "big tent" thing too far, while blue-state Democrats are perfectly willing to throw some elbows instead of waiting their turn.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 03:49:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think part of it is that the Dem coalition (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje

        is inherently more ideologically diverse than the Republicans' and that our bloc sees liberal turnout drop disproportionately more than moderates in primaries compared to their final general election turnout. That's the sort of thing that makes a primary challenge to someone like Henry Cuellar nigh impossible, but if you had a Republican who was that far to the left of their caucus in a safe seat they'd have someone foaming at the mouth to take them on. I'm surprised they haven't tried to knock off Walter Jones yet... even if his district does have a crapload of registered Democrats and semi-closed primaries that should only make him more vulnerable to a primary challenge.

        •  They've been trying with Jones (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          just haven't been successful yet.  It helps that his heresies are unusual and can't really be described as coming "from the left", unlike former Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland (knocked off by Andy Harris for undeniably being pretty far left for a Republican).

    •  Agree entirely except on Maffei, but only (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, Skaje, R30A

      because he regularly seems to have an issue with his left flank in the NY electorate and that makes him vulnerable in a state where a Green Party candidate can peel off 8% from him as happened in 2010 and where he just doesn't seem to connect with the electorate. I'm not saying a primary challenge is warranted, certainly not like it is for Lipinski, but something needs to happen for him to become entrenched and I don't think voting for Republican kabuki is the way to do it. Buerkle only got 43% of the vote and the clear majority of the electorate in his district is comfortable voting for a left of center candidate.

      Other than that these defections are totally meaningless. Maybe Ron Barber might defect on one of several major Dem initiatives if we get the trifecta, but Kyrsten Sinema just seems like a very adept politician who is a liberal at heart. She and Reps like Ruiz just know they are in marginal districts, but as those seats trend left thanks to minority population age demographics they should hopefully become solid Dem votes in Congress.

      •  Don't really understand how that Green got 8% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        against Maffei.  The Green running against the undeniably more conservative Bill Owens got only 1.6%.

        And keep in mind, this was before Maffei voted for the GOP resolutions!  All they had was Maffei's 2009-2010 voting record (total partyline Democrat) and his 2012 campaign (underwhelming perhaps) to go off of.

        And I think it's slightly revisionist to cast him as "unable to connect to the electorate" seeing as how he scared Jim Walsh so badly in 2006 that the longtime incumbent retired in 2008 and Maffei won the seat 55-42.  He clearly was a strong candidate at the time in a historically GOP area.

        The fact that Buerkle couldn't even keep it close despite a Green sapping 8% says more about her I think.  Her 43% was so bad as an incumbent that I suspect she even bled some support to the Green as protest votes.

        We'll have a better measure of Maffei's strengths this November, since he's basically going unchallenged.  If he breaks 60% I'll feel a lot better about him going forward.  If he struggles to get over 55% against a noboy then it will be pretty clear he does have some kind of problem.

        In any case, I do expect Maffei, Sinema, Maloney, and the rest to be there for us in the next Dem majority.  Barber (if he holds on) may actually be a somewhat conservative Democrat at heart, and his district is tougher.  Hard to say with him.

        •  Maybe the Green candidate was just really good? (0+ / 0-)

          Well-rooted in the community, skilled campaigner, something of the like? I mean, I have no idea, just asking.

        •  The problem is Maffei. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CF of Aus

          The green party candidate only raised enough money in 2012 to buy a hybrid car, so she wasn't exactly a juggernaut.

          Of the 52 incumbent Democrats that lost reelection in the general election, Maffei had the district that was the most Democratic of all them. That means something. And it means that Maffei is unpopular enough that he is a serious general election liability. His district is D+4 and moving left, meaning that it could plausibly support a Democrat in the Progressive caucus.

          http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

          by redrelic17 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:50:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Don't think Maffei's was necessarily the bluest (0+ / 0-)

            I'd put it in the same tier as other deep blue seat incumbent losses, like PA-11 (Kanjorski), IL-17 (Hare), and NV-03 (Titus).  Hard to really determine which one was objectively the bluest.  They're all around the same number by Obama 2008, but have varying performances for Kerry and Gore (plus there are local considerations).

            We also came real close to losing other incumbents in blue seats, like VA-11 (Connolly), AZ-07 (Grijalva), GA-02 (Bishop), MO-03 (Carnahan), IA-01 (Braley), and so on.  I don't really blame many Democrats for their performances in 2010.  It was just a brutal year.

            In any case, Maffei is clearly safe this year, nobody of any stature wants to challenge him despite this being the best opportunity for any up and coming Republican before he gets entrenched.  He's not vulnerable any more than Tammy Duckworth is now.

            Maffei's not in the Progressive caucus, but then again, only 68 Democrats are.  I'm not itching to primary out the other 133 just for not being in the club.

    •  there's a difference between someone who (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      votes no out of strategy and someone who is a complete roadlock/pain in the ass.

      Even McIntyre was nowhere near as bad as the Judge Smiths and Billy Colmers of yesteryear.

      •  I had to google both of those (0+ / 0-)

        a little before my time, you could say.  And yeah, those segregationist Dixiecrats made Mike McIntyre look like Alan Grayson.

        •  It depends (0+ / 0-)

          Some of the worst racist Dixiecrats did vote for the New Deal and other economically liberal legislation.   Ideology in the segregationist Deep South was more complicated.

          Take Theodore Bilbo.  He made the KKK look racially progressive.  But he was a solid vote for the New Deal, unions, and the sort.

          Authoritarian Democrat. Racism, misogyny, and homophobia should NOT be protected by the Constitution, and those who spew this kind of shit belong in prison.

          by TeaBaggersAreRacists on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:10:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I do think there are some things (0+ / 0-)

      You shouldn't defect on, even if the outcome doesn't matter, just because of the message it sends. But I agree, this catch-and-release is perfectly normal, and this wasn't like ACA or Dodd-Frank, where every defection risked either a worse bill or even no bill at all.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:32:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA SD-33: Wexton has huge money advantage (11+ / 0-)

    VPAP has the fundraising numbers. Jennifer Wexton raised $645k and has $156k on hand, while Whitbeck raised $236k and has $59k on hand. No report from Joe May yet, but he had about $42k left in the bank from his House of Delegates primary defeat.

  •  New Christie polls show him holding steady (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, nimh

    Monmouth shows Christie holding a 59% (-6) approval rating.

    Pew shows that most of the nation's views on Christie have hardly changed.

    The strength of Chris Christie's image is on full display here. People are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and even to forgive him. As the scandal(s?) continues to unfold, I expect his polling to decrease but we can't expect anything earth shattering.

    •  New Jersey voters don't trust Christie as Pres (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, jj32

      According to Monmouth only 44% of voters think he has the temperament to be President.

      NBC with links to both polls

    •  Hmm, not sure I agree (12+ / 0-)

      I'm not surprised his approvals haven't suddenly tanked. What I think has happened is that his previously semisoft approvals have softened further, like when you microwave brie.

      There's a drip-drip going on here, too, with state and federal investigations revving up. Some notables have even begun using the I-word. And meanwhile, fellow Republicans -- whether jealous of Gov. Christie's popularity, stung by his personal nastiness and/or vindictiveness, or salivating over the prospect of taking over his frontrunner status heading into 2016 -- are circling like sharks instead of backing him up.

      This story isn't going away, and the fact that Christie is still above water a few days into the scandal is not even close to proof that he has survived it.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:21:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree that the damage will intensify (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, nimh

        His Democratic support isn't as elastic as I anticipated though. It appears that the goodwill he has accrued with Democrats is pretty deep. It's also evident that his support amongst Republicans is rock solid, which is troubling because it suggests that he has the base support necessary to rebound if this blows over.

        I suspect that Christie has dozens of skeletons in his closet and that once the media resumes being a watchdog that he'll be implicated in at least a few more scandals that will fully tarnish his reputation. We could just as also be underestimated how resilient Christie is and how skillful his unconventional Machiavellian tactics are.

        •  Why the high approvals? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          It's not like NJ's economy is booming with it's nearly 8% unemployment rate the economy is certainty worse off than the rest of the nation he hasn't pushed for a huge tax cut as far as I know what is it? Sandy was over a year ago his "bump" never receded since then usually these bumps after natural disasters last a couple of months. I hope these polls are premature and his crashes back to at least his pre-Sandy numbers I just can't understand how he remains so popular especially with his abysmal economic record.

        •  Any Dem still supporting this thug is not a Dem (4+ / 0-)

          Seriously his support should be zero; the support among Dems is the only reason his approvals are not in the toilet. Sandy happened over a year ago WAKE UP!

      •  Polls Don't Matter (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

        What matters is his two big positives (in fact his only positives) are now dead in the water:

        1) him as an effective administrator
        2) him as a bipartisan leader

        He's a lot like Romney now, whose big positive ("Romneycare") he could not run on; at the same time his big negative ("super rich guy") became the narrative that defined him.

        There is no reason for anyone to support him anymore.

        He's done.

    •  He's the unicorn that everyone wants... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Danny Ricci, BKGyptian89, nimh, KingTag

      ..but cannot have, the moderate republican.  Of course, he's no where near being moderate, but he's mastered that con very well.  People aren't going to let go of their fantasy that easily.  We're going to need the smoking gun on Christie, evidence that he knew or better yet ordered it, before we see any real erosion, I'm afraid.  Keep at it!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:00:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  His record doesn't fit his popularity (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, BKGyptian89

        He's a mediocre Governor at best he hasn't done much for the state economically I could understand if he were producing surpluses for the state but there's not even that the unemployment rate is still above the national average taxes have not gone down contrary to what he claims the state ranks dead last in places to do business all this just seems to not matter to Jerseyians? Every Gov deals with natural disasters and they get their bump in approval for awhile but he's had his honeymoon far too long.

    •  This is only the beginning (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Setsuna Mudo, LordMike, bythesea

      בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:07:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR-5: And Jo doesn't really care (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, David Nir

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 04:18:52 PM PST

  •  Is Merkley vulnerable? (0+ / 0-)

    Monica Wehbly strikes me as a strong challenger: she isn't running as a conservative ideologue but rather as a neurologist and she's been using Merkley words against him. Her youtube video has over 25 thousand views and she has as many likes on Facebook as Conger.

  •  The ACA rollout in OR has been a disaster (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nimh

    Cover Oregon, the state's health insurance exchange renowned for its twee advertising campaign, is still processing paper applications and there is a full-fledged state investigation into the company hired to managed the website. I'm worried that Wehby could get traction as a relatively inoffensive anti-ACA candidate who is a doctor ala Ron Johnson if she gets the perfect campaign. As for Conger? There is no way Oregon will elect a ardently pro-life, anti-medical marijuana Senator. Merkley will nuke him a few weeks before election day and the base will turn out.

    •  That's on Kitzhaber (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      Who I'm sure will take the heat Merkley really has nothing to do with that but he'll certainty be attacked on it I think he'll be fine in the end Oregon is way more different than Wisconsin and Merkley won't make the same mistakes as Feingold.

    •  Cover Oregon =/= ACA (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, PassionateJus

      see my response above, but I don't think the Oregon, which easily went for Obama in 2012, has many qualms about the ACA. The implementation of Cover Oregon is something state officials need to answer for, not Merkley.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:43:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree but I think the optics are worse (0+ / 0-)

        because of Cover Oregon and that federal Democratic politicians are going to be under more heat for their pro-ACA votes as a result.

        •  Nah... (0+ / 0-)

          The story in Oregon is that people really want to sign up for health insurance. They've just had some trouble doing so. They're not going to blame the guy (Merkley) who helped make it possible for them to purchase health insurance this way. They may, however, blame those who poorly executed it. But at this point, I doubt they'll do that either.

        •  Republicans and others who hate Obamacare (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, Skaje, PassionateJus

          will vote against him, but they were already going to do so.

          I expect plenty of Smith 08/Merkley 14 voters, on the other hand. Mostly moderate Dems and NAVs.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:41:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  also, despite problems with Cover OR (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, jj32, PassionateJus

      we're 28th among all states in private enrollments, 9/14 among states with their own exchanges. It's been bad, and yes probably was a disaster, but its starting to work.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:45:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  if forced to vote republican which would you (0+ / 0-)

    rather vote for

    A hard right ideologue who doesn't have any ethics issues (ie Cotton or Coburn)

    or

    A moderate or slightly conservative R who has ethnics issues (Grimm/Young)

    I'd vote for the latter

  •  NY-11: Grimm fundraiser Diana Durand arrested (6+ / 0-)

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:09:12 PM PST

  •  MN-LG (5+ / 0-)

    Looks like incumbent Yvonne Prettner-Solon will be announcing she will not be running for a second term with governor Dayton. I am sad to see her leave, she is a very bright politician, and a nice person.

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:43:46 PM PST

  •  OR-Gov: the 5th or 6th some dude to announce (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    is running for governor. Oregonians eagerly await the next.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 05:48:16 PM PST

  •  VT-LG (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    At this point, this is the alone statewide election in D+ territory that still has no-one Democrat at least flirting with the race.

    I think someone should be interested.

    •  It wouldn't make much of a difference (0+ / 0-)

      even if there was a Democrat there. Phil Scott (the LG of VT) reminds me of Susan Collins, in that he is a genuinely moderate Republican (more moderate than Collins) who is very popular among Democrats and independents. Scott won 56-40 in 2010, not a bad analog to Collins's 62-38 win in 2008, since Vermont is more Democratic than Maine.

      That being said, obviously he should be challenged, but there is a good reason why no one has thus far decided to challenge him.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:59:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The challenger of the last year was very weak (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        I'm a little surprised that someone like J Spaulding, D Racine or D Markowitz be not interested (all former statewide elected officers).

        The Democrats from Vermont have a strong bench, but this Republican is going unchallenged...

        •  Why bother? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          LG is a worthless office, particularly in a small state like Vermont. All you do is show up at a couple of official functions and maybe attend the occasional ribbon-cutting at the new Dunkin Donuts in Rutland or whatever.

          •  The only reason I can see (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, Skaje

            for trying to get rid of Phil Scott is to prevent him from eventually running for Governor or Congress. While I'd say the odds that he'd run for Congress are probably low, I wouldn't be surprised if he ran for Governor someday, especially if it was open. After all, Vermont elected Jim Douglas several times recently, and if Leahy retires, Welch runs for Senate, and Shumlin runs for Congress, then the governor's office will be open.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 07:32:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It was the obvious reason (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              We see it with B Dubie in 2010 and he was not far of winning. VT-LG is the best place to wait an open office for a Republican in Vermont.

              Also is the best place for a Democrat out of office but with name recognition to keep himself active while other office gets open without primary other Democrat in statewide office.

              And even is the best place for a Democrat that want to build his own brand from the state legislature without primary other Democrat while higher office gets open. This was just the case of H Dean.

              From the VT-LG position, H Dean becomes governor in 1991 after the death of the governor R Snelling.

  •  VA-Gov: Didn't know of this prank tradition: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, psychicpanda, Gygaxian

    בָּרוּךְ בֶּן מָרְדֳּכַי

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:27:23 PM PST

  •  LOL, my hometown has an IA-01 candidate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Gygaxian

    Well, my co-hometown of Marshalltown, since I claim that and Ames both as hometowns.

    Marshalltown School Board member Gail Boliver, a Republican, is running.

    Yes, a local school board member.

    Marshalltown is a population of 25K, and I don't know if Boliver is at-large or from some sliver of town.  It takes 10 minutes to drive from one end of town to the other...if you hit some red lights.  And again, she's just on the local school board, not a state legislator which would be more serious.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:34:45 PM PST

  •  CA-11: Great Mentioner (6+ / 0-)

    With George Miller's retirement, some names are already being thrown around, mostly on the Democratic side.

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    • State senator Mark DeSaulnier has already declared.
    • State assemblywoman Joan Buchanan is termed out and may want to move up. Like DeSaulnier, she ran in the 2009 CA-10 special election and lost to John Garamendi.
    • State assemblywoman Susan Bonilla may be in the running, though she may also eye DeSaulnier's seat if he wins.

    State superintendent Tom Torlakson and Contra Costa County supervisor John Gioia have said they are not running for the seat.

    Several Republican officeholders are named, such as Contra Costa County district attorney Mark Peterson,  but any such candidacy will go down in flames in this D+17 district.

    With the probable exception of Torlakson, none of the names mentioned will be as progressive as Miller, though most of them would be liberal in Eric Swalwell mold.

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 06:49:11 PM PST

  •  VA-SD 33: saw a Whitbeck ad (3+ / 0-)

    Joe May really matters, Whitbeck did a "contrast" ad that started by attacking May and Wexton both as "liberal."  Then he came on camara and talked about his own agenda, identifying soft local issues of taxes and transportation.

    That Whitbeck gave May and Wexton equal billing in his attack ad is good for us, it means May has real traction as a spoiler.  He's not another Russell Potts, who was a non-factor as a GOPer-turned indy in VA-Gov '05.

    Note that Whitbeck hasn't raised the money Wexton has, and still has enough to be on cable TV.  I don't know if he's also doing broadcast.  And in case you're wondering, yes I've seen Wexton's ad on TV, too.  Someone here broke the news on it on DKE, and within a couple days I was seeing it on the air myself.

    Cable buys are interesting here because I'm not in SD-33.  I'm in SD-31, Barbara Favola's largely safe Dem district.  So it must not be possible to carve up a cable buy to avoid paying for people outside the district to see it.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:00:18 PM PST

  •  Bob Tuke (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Didn't he run against Lamar Alexander the last time he was up for reelection?

  •  AR Senate and Gov 2014... Which do we win? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    I notice that polls are pretty close on both races, but I think we'll win the Governor race again, but lose the Senate race against Cotton.  Obviously I hope we win both.  We need to hold as many Senate seats as we can.  I hope the Democratic party puts a lot of money into this race, as it's pretty much a coin toss right now.

    •  I have it the other way around (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, LordMike, JBraden

      Pryor incumbency and his name give Dems better chance at holding the Senate seat than the Governor seat. But we also have a good chance to hold that Governor seat as well.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 08:14:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  AR SD 21 is not the only special this week (0+ / 0-)

    Unless you are only counting general elections.  Tomorrow is the Republican primary for Florida Congressional District 13 (open due to death of Bill Young.)  Three republicans vying to convince the GOP primary electorate that he/she is the most conservative.  Hopefully whoever wins tomorrow lose to Alex Sink in March.

  •  (SIAP) MI Ballot - Abortion Insurance Referendum (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KyleinWA, MetroGnome

    http://www.mlive.com/...

    I didn't see this posted but apparently Planned Parenthood, NOW and the ACLU are no-go on the referendum. That has got to be a big blow for the cause. I wonder if Democrats are willing to go in alone. I also wonder what their polling said and which pollster they used. Sadly, I think the repeal effort is dead.

    M, 24, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Mon Jan 13, 2014 at 09:53:44 PM PST

    •  Ugh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I saw this, yesterday, and didn't even bother to post it since it speaks to either the incompetency or the timidness of the so-called progressives in this state.

      That said, I'm not so sure that they found that this repeal effort wasn't popular as much as they also calculated (and probably correctly) that there was going to be another initiative filed by Right to Life when we got on the ballot, so you could have dueling proposals which could actually both pass, which would set up all kinds of mess.

      My thing has always been that with something with even just a 50/50 chance, the party out of power should try it if only to organize for November.  Right now, the MI Dems don't have any major issues to rally around, and that's not to say that we won't do well in November, but it's taking a chance when we don't exercize our organizational muscles.

      I honestly don't know what's going on in this state, and swing between despair and optimisim on a near-daily level.  BTW, I should qualify that despair means just breaking even, because I simply don't see us doing any worse than that in any scenario simply because of the natural built-in advantage for the Democrats in a place like Michigan.  The MI GOP has at least two decades of gerrymandering under their belt, and we're still competitive at state-level and in the state house.  They managed to put the Senate out of our reach, and because of how they spend in judicial races, the Supreme Court is always hard to contest, but those are really the only two bodies they have a strong lock on.

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