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9:44 AM PT: Special Elections: There's a big one coming up on Tuesday, on which control of the entire Virginia state Senate turns. Johnny Longtorso sums it up:

Virginia SD-33: This is the seat left vacant by Democrat Mark Herring's election to Attorney General, a helicopter-shaped district that takes in parts of Loudoun County (most notably Leesburg and Sterling) and a bit of western Fairfax County (Herndon). Democrats have chosen attorney Jennifer Wexton, who narrowly lost a run for Loudoun County Commonwealth's Attorney in 2011. The Republican nominee is John Whitbeck, chairman of the 10th Congressional District Republican Committee. Throwing a monkey wrench into the mix is Joe May, a former Republican delegate who lost his seat in a primary last year and entered this race as an independent.

At the top of the ballot, the district is decidedly Democratic. Barack Obama carried it 59-39 in 2012, while the 2013 races saw a Democratic sweep: Terry McAuliffe won it 55-40 in November's gubernatorial contest, Ralph Northam won it 61-39 in the race for lieutenant governor, and Herring won it 59-41. However, as we saw in the special election in the 6th District earlier this month, low turnout can make what is on paper a Democratic district difficult to hold.

9:50 AM PT: NE-Sen: As expected, attorney David Domina will run for Nebraska's open Senate seat, rather than challenge GOP Rep. Lee Terry in the 2nd Congressional District. Domina's entry finally gives Democrats a candidate for Senate, but his odds are extremely long. Four Republicans are competing for their party's nomination: wealthy banker Sid Dinsdale, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, Midland University President Ben Sasse (who looks like the movement conservative favorite), and attorney Bart McLeay.

10:07 AM PT: HI-Gov: Does Duke Aiona have some secret polling data showing Gov. Neil Abercrombie as super unpopular? Or is he just delusional? I'm banking on the latter. Aiona, Hawaii's former Republican lieutenant governor, got walloped 58-41 by Abercrombie in 2010's open seat gubernatorial race, despite that year's huge GOP wave. Now, however, Aiona says he's "very serious" about a rematch and is "very close" to filing paperwork. Yes, Abercrombie's taken his lumps in office, as most incumbents do, but it would take something far out of the ordinary for him to lose in ocean blue Hawaii.

So what's Aiona thinking? It's notable that he declared his interest on a Christian radio station, whose listeners are in tune with his well-known religious beliefs—and in particular, his firm opposition to same-sex marriage. Indeed, Aiona has called for a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman. Hawaii, of course, has gone the other way, with Abercrombie signing a marriage equality law last year. So it feels like Aiona wants to run a campaign catering to the anti-gay marriage dead-enders. With majorities of Hawaiians now supportive of same-sex marriage, that idea can't go very far.

11:21 AM PT: WV-03: Afghanistan and Iraq veteran Richard Ojeda is launching a challenge to Rep. Nick Rahall in the Democratic primary, and while he might look like a Some Dude, there's a bit of a twist. Ojeda was Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's guest at the State of the Union address last year, and Manchin put out a statement praising Ojeda at the time. (There may well be video clips, too.) And a primary battle is the last thing that Rahall, who faces the fight for his political life against party-switching state Sen. Evan Jenkins, needs this year.

11:32 AM PT: PA-06: Republican interest in retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach's seat seems remarkably low; either that, or no one wants to run against Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello in the GOP primary. Two more Republicans have now backed off bids, state Sen. John Rafferty and biotech executive Patrick Collins, and even Chester County GOP chair Val DiGiorgio is supporting Costello. (DiGiorgio and Costello are known for their frosty relationship.)

As for Democrats, businessman Mike Parrish is still the only candidate running, though four others have not yet ruled out the race: state Rep. Mark Rozzi, 2010 and 2012 nominee Manan Trivedi, Chester County Commissioner Kathi Cozzone, and state Sen. Andy Dinniman.

12:08 PM PT: CO-05, -Sen: There's not much to go on here, but apparently, someone is conducting a poll pitting state Sen. Owen Hill, who's running for Senate, against Rep. Doug Lamborn, in a hypothetical Republican primary. Hill claims he's not behind the survey, but a GOP consultant, Patrick Davis, says otherwise. (A Hill ally could certainly be the sponsor.) Sliding down a notch to a House race might make sense for Hill, who faces better-known names in the fight for the Senate nomination. But Lamborn fended off a well-financed challenge last cycle from businessman Robert Blaha, who spent over $770,000 of his own money but lost 62-38.

1:03 PM PT: VA-Sen: Even though the GOP establishment and the Beltway press can't stop themselves from fawning over former RNC chair Ed Gillespie's newly announced Senate bid (here's the latest love letter), state Del. Ben Cline isn't necessarily on board. Cline says that conservative activists are asking him to run, and he says he hasn't ruled out the idea. Since Virginia Republicans are set to nominate their candidate via convention rather than a traditional primary, someone like Cline has the potentially to muck things up.

1:23 PM PT: NY-Gov: Gov. Andrew Cuomo maintains a comically large lead against Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, per Siena—that's hardly a surprise. More interesting may be the death of the Chris Christie boomlet. In November, as Christie was cruising to re-election in the state next door, he held a 47-42 edge over Cuomo in a very, very hypothetical presidential election matchup. Ordinarily these kinds of numbers aren't even worth spending any time on at all, but it's worth noting that Cuomo's now up 55-35 on Christie. Wonder what changed since then.

1:26 PM PT: NY-21: One more Democratic name for the NY-21 pile: former Oswego Mayor John Sullivan, who says he's considering a bid.

1:29 PM PT: FL-13: Almost a week after the GOP primary, state Rep. Kathleen Peters is finally endorsing lobbyist David Jolly in the March special election for the late Rep. Bill Young's House seat. Last week, though, Peters was insisting that Jolly's victory had "weakened" GOP chances.

1:31 PM PT: CA-11: Former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, who represented almost half of the 11th District when she was in Congress, has endorsed Democratic state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier to succeed retiring Rep. George Miller. DeSaulnier actually ran in the special election for Tauscher's seat when she resigned in 2009 to join the State Department, coming in second among Democrats behind now-Rep. John Garamendi. Several other Democrats have expressed an interest in Miller's seat, but so far, only DeSaulnier has announced a bid.

1:44 PM PT: MN-07: The Collin Peterson retirement watch continues, as the veteran Democrat has posted his fourth quarter fundraising figures... and they're still kinda ambiguous. On the one hand, he pulled in $165,000, which is not very much for an incumbent, especially one who faces a more serious GOP opponent than he's accustomed to (in the form of state Sen. Torrey Westrom). On the other, Peterson raised just $83,000 in the prior quarter and only $114,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011, when he ultimately decided to seek another term. So by those standards, it looks like he might run again. Peterson still hasn't announced his plans, though, and last cycle, he waited until early March.

1:46 PM PT: And one of those potential rivals has also taken her name out of consideration and given her backing to DeSaulnier: Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla.

1:57 PM PT: IA-Gov: Jack Hatch (D): $300,000 raised in 2013 (plus $140,000 self loan), $237,000 cash-on-hand.

2:17 PM PT: OK-Sen-B: The Republican field to replace resigning Sen. Tom Coburn is quickly taking shape. Sophomore Rep. James Lankford announced his entry on Monday, while fellow Rep. Tom Cole and state Attorney General Pruitt are both taking a pass. Meanwhile, freshman Rep. Jim Bridenstine confirms he's looking at the seat, and ex-Rep. J.C. Watts reportedly is as well, as a Watts' protégé, state House Speaker T.W. Shannon.

And as the Club for Growth did last week, the Senate Conservatives Fund is already hammering Lankford, accusing him of voting to "increase the debt limit, raise taxes, and fund Obamacare." This may seem baffling, considering that in the last Congress, Lankford was the 77th most conservative member of the House GOP, according to DW-Nominate. By contrast, tea party saint Louie Gohmert was 73rd. But Lankford, as we've noted, hails from the party's religious wing, and the SCF and their ilk are more interested in provoking fiscal armageddon than in the rapture.

If anyone best fits the movement conservative mold, it would be Bridenstine, who knocked off an incumbent last cycle and quickly became the most right-wing member of Oklahoma's congressional delegation. But some members of his own party are wary of him. One unnamed "GOP observer" tells The Hill:"Most Republicans in the state view him as a little crazy." And the business community apparently sees him as fitting the Ted Cruz/Mike Lee mold, which isn't actually good for business. Could be lots of cat fud ahead.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 06:00:18 AM PST

  •  Which Democrats will run in OK? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    walja, okiedem

    Anyone at all? Is it too soon to have Brad Henry make some sort of attempt here, or would he be better off in some other year? I know it's OK, but I'd like to think we'd attempt to field someone here, at least for the special seat.

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 06:08:08 AM PST

    •  I Don't Think There'll Ever Be a Good Year in OK.. (7+ / 0-)

      ....which is why I think they're gonna have a hard time recruiting him or Boren for the seat.  In theory it would be an interesting experiment to see how well a popular Democrat could run in modern-day Oklahoma, but I suspect Rob Wallace's performance in OK-02 last cycle probably represents the Democratic highwater in the Obama era.

      •  Agreed but it predates Obama (10+ / 0-)

        Oklahoma Democrats have been in a death spiral ever since Bush took office. The high water mark for Democrats in a federal election was probably Brad Carson's 53-41 loss in 2004.

        http://www.cnn.com/...

        27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:00:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, But..... (6+ / 0-)

          ....I think the Democratic ceiling has lowered further since that 2004 race.  I'd be surprised if a strong, well-funded Democrat of Carson's ilk could get within 12 points in 2014.  Plus I think Carson's numbers were held down by the fact that he and Coburn shared the same eastern Oklahoma base.  If Coburn was from Tulsa or OKC instead of Muskogee, I think Carson would have run up the score far better in eastern OK and Little Dixie and narrowed Coburn's margin to single digits.

          •  I definitely agree it's been lowered (6+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, Mark27, bjssp, itskevin, Skaje, wadingo

            as the Demosaury areas of the state now appear to be unwilling to vote for local federal conservative Democrats at a higher rate than they vote for national liberal Democrats. I was just saying that the decline has been ongoing for the past 30 years and that the state probably became unwinnable for any Democrat (at a federal level) sometime between 1995 and 2000.

            27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:27:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Out Of Curiosity, As An Oklahoman...... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp, terjeanderson, Setsuna Mudo

              How do you figure the 2004 Senate race would have played out if it was Kirk Humphreys vs. Brad Carson?  The conventional wisdom before the primary that Humphreys was far more electable, but it seems as though Coburn made the sale pretty solidly in the end and I don't think it was all just Bush coattails.  Plus, as I said, I think the fact that Coburn cannibalized some of Carson's Muskogee-area base was also a serious feather in Coburn's cap.  Then again, I don't really know anything about Humphreys' political skills or base.  Do you figure we would have done better or worse than Coburn?

              •  Interesting question - I think you're right (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Mark27, James Allen, Skaje, Setsuna Mudo

                that Coburn was a ultimately a stronger candidate than Humphreys due to Coburn's strength in the rural Northeast and Little Dixie. However, Carson only just barely hit what he needed to get in Tulsa and Oklahoma City to win even if he were to have received Brad Henry 2002 2-1 margins in the rural east. I don't think he ever could have received such margins running downballot from Bush and Kerry for a federal office. Moreover, Humphrey's was seen as more moderate and had a very strong base in the OKC area and probably would have done noticeably better than Coburn did in OKC and Tulsa.

                27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                by okiedem on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:56:18 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  It's worth trying (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bjssp

              just in case the demosaurs come home to roost after the success of Obamacare. Then again, I doubt even then there'd be enough demosaurs to overcome the die-hard conservatives. Oklahoma is a really conservative state.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

              by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:41:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

                I am reading too much into Henry's victory in 2006, or maybe it's more of a state/federal thing, but for a pro-choice Democrat to win by that much...well, I can't help but think they are open to voting for Democrats.

                You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                by bjssp on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:11:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I'm Guessing Michael Bennet Is Making Some Noise.. (4+ / 0-)

                  ....and seeing if there's any interest among top-tier Democrats in Oklahoma (both of them), but finding anybody willing to endure the annals of a campaign only to likely lose by 25 points is not going to be easy.  After Bob Kerrey got his clock cleaned in Nebraska last cycle in about the best environment a red-state Democrat could hope for, it's hard to imagine a 2014 Bob Kerrey equivalent emerging to endure that kind of embarrassment.

                •  I think a good comparison (9+ / 0-)

                  is Linda Lingle, who also won a landslide victory in 2006 in a state that leans heavily against her party, but when she tried to run in a federal race she was beaten handily.  There's not only the state/federal divide, but also I think a divide between electing an executive, who governs singularly and has more freedom to govern based on their own views which are tailored to the state apart from the national party, and electing someone to a body like the Senate, where they will join one caucus or the other and will at least some of the time vote against what their constituency wants because they are only one of 100 or of 435.

                •  That coalition isn't available to us anymore (8+ / 0-)

                  It's worth remembering that Tulsa and OKC are actually ancestrally Republican and Democrats more or less get the same percentage there no matter what. In order for a Democrat to win they have to win the rural Eastern and Southern portions of the state by 60-40 margins. With those areas voting about 3-1 against national democrats at this point I think we're quickly reaching the point where that is impossible in any federal race.

                  27, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

                  by okiedem on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:08:11 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  eh I think (5+ / 0-)

                  Incumbency and having a good D-year helped enormously.

                  Democrats also romped in states like KS(Sebelius won by 17 points), WY (Fruedenthal won by 40 points), TN (Bredesen won by 39 points)

                  Redistricting is an officeholder's nightmare because overnight it can change the makeup of his constituency sufficiently perhaps to cost him the next election." -Speaker Joseph Martin

                  by lordpet8 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:10:21 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Do we have a large enough sample? (0+ / 0-)

          It's easy to pretend that if we just run the right candidates, we will do better, if not win, and I don't want to pretend I am arguing that. I'm just saying that I wonder if we have enough data to draw any conclusions. It's a heavily Republican state, and that's a big obstacle, but we wouldn't run a Bernie Sanders-type candidate and expect to win. I imagine the state party is weakened, especially since 2010,  but perhaps if we strengthen it and run the right candidates, we can win in the future.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:09:09 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  if you really want to go back (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          nimh

          it probably has to do with Al Smith's unusually bad showing in 1928.

          It had a dem PVI again from 32-56 and in 1960 it went 59% for Nixon (better than Eisenhower's 55% in 1956) which could be chalked up to Kennedy's catholicism.

          In 1964, it also had an RPVI and went for Nixon in 1968 and never looked back (Kevin Philips was right by predicting it would never go dem in the 20th century again).

          Its been a slow death ever since. This seat hasn't gone dem since going for Mike Monroney in 1962. Closest it came was in 74 when Bellmon had a close call.

  •  OR state house: oh great (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, Christopher Walker

    in HD-40, in Gladstone and Oregon City, the Republicans have recruited Steve Newgard to run again. He lost very narrowly to Democrat Brent Barton in 2012. It was open in 2012, though, so hopefully with incumbency Brent will hold it. Obama only got about 54.5% of the 2-party vote there, so it's a fairly marginal district that's still in the range Republicans can win here, especially since its in the suburbs. In 2010 we lost Kurt Schrader's old senate district which was also about D+2, which was centered on Oregon City and Gladstone, but also with the much more Republican Canby area and some more Democratic turf reaching up towards Milwaukie and Portland.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:11:09 AM PST

    •  OR-HD-29 : Mark Richman (R) (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Christopher Walker

      We now have a Republican candidate in HD-29...

      Washington County deputy district attorney Mark Richman filed Monday [1/13] to seek the Republican nomination in Oregon House District 29, one of two swing districts centered around Hillsboro.

      Democrat Ben Unger won the seat in 2012, ousting Republican Katie Eyre in a hard-fought election. Unger hasn’t announced if he will seek a second term.

      •  I'd noticed that (0+ / 0-)

        Ben is a strong campaigner, and I think if he runs again he'll hold it. Chuck Riley held it from 2002-2010, when he ran for state senate, and I think we may have only lost it because it was open.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 11:09:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  OK-Sen: Lankford in, Cole and Pruitt out (0+ / 0-)

    http://newsok.com/...

    I recall the Club for Growth bitching about Lankford, so I suppose I'll support him given Democrats have a -3% chance of winning here.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:17:56 AM PST

  •  VA-State Senate -election tomorrow? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, madmojo, bythesea

    to fill newly elected VA Lt Gov's former state senate seat?

    what should we expect?

    •  A roll of the dice. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bythesea, nimh

      But I think we prevail.  May be closer than we think, maybe too close, but I think enough on our side know what's riding on this since the last special election.  (Which we still don't know for sure we won!)

    •  Wexton has ran an awesome campaign (11+ / 0-)

      As far as I can see she has ran an awesome campaign although I'm not in her district.

      I've seen her ads blanketing local DC TV for the last two weeks: never seen any of her opponents ads, if they have any. There's a horribly made attack ad by some pro-Republican group but it's laughable.

      There's also an anti Wexton facebook page but that is also laughable.

      And Wexton had a big GOTV event this weekend with the Lt Gov and AG although I missed it since I was out of town.

      I'm planning on volunteering tomorrow.

      The one bad thing is that it is going to snow tomorrow so that could make things dicey.

    •  It's for the AG's seat, not the LG's (13+ / 0-)

      But Jennifer Wexton will probably win. She's been running a much better campaign than Lynwood Lewis did in the 6th, from what I can tell, and she's outraised the Republican by probably about 2-1 at this point (it was higher, but the Republicans have been putting some last-minute money into the race). I'm not sure how much of the vote Joe May will pull in as an independent; he used to represent most of the district back in the 90s (the 33rd House district covered most of Loudoun and even the western edge of Fairfax) but there's been so much population growth that I doubt most voters know who he is. And most of the money he's spent has come from a loan he gave himself and money left over from his House of Delegates account, so I don't think anyone is willing to put any money down on him winning.

      Low turnout is always a hindrance for Democrats, though. If I had to guess at percentages, I'd say around 50-40-10.

    •  Snow tomorrow in the area (5+ / 0-)

      Cold enough temperatures for it to stick on the ground as well.

      The weather really concerns me about turnout.

    •  I read an article and something caught my eye (6+ / 0-)
      Wexton holds a big fundraising advantage, thank to about $350,000 in donations from the Democratic Party, according to campaign finance reports reviewed by the Virginia Public Access Project. The money has given Wexton a big advantage in running numerous TV ads in the expensive D.C. media market, highlighting her work as a prosecutor and criticizing “Tea Party Republicans” for anti-abortion views.
      The Republican, John Whitbeck, said he is focused on bread-and-butter issues like transportation, and said it’s Democrats who want to keep talking about social issues.
      I can't believe how fast these social issues have changed in such a short amount of time in favor of us.

      10 years ago, George Bush won reelection by putting Dems on the defensive and now its the Republicans on the defensive.

  •  NY-Siena: Christie sees steep drop (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.siena.edu/...

    Christie lead Cuomo by 5 in November, now he trails by 20. His favorables have gone from 63-25 to 49-39. So much for electability.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:17:49 AM PST

  •  facepalm-inducing local politics (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, bythesea, Gygaxian

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:05:23 AM PST

  •  My NJ Diary is up! (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Skaje, bythesea, CF of Aus, WisJohn

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    It'll appear in the DKE sidebar soon.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:34:13 AM PST

    •  I got so much awesome detail in there (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      that there was no room for talking about a hypothetical full-on Dem gerrymander like I initially planned.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:40:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  BTW, did the embedded video show up (0+ / 0-)

      in the Tip Jar comment I made?  It didn't show up for me.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:42:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It did not show up (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        If I could offer a general tip for your diary, I'd suggest breaking your text into shorter paragraphs. That will make it easier to read.

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:46:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  There, that's what I just edited (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          When you write a lot, sometimes you forget to split paragraphs.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 10:06:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Sorry about that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea

          I was hoping to put the video of the intro of "The Sopranos" in the Tip Jar to be cool.

          anyway, I edited it to make it better and more readable

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 10:45:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Why are we cursed? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, wadingo, PassionateJus

    Both of our State Senate special election in Virginia have been hampered by cold. The first one had record temps throughout Hampton Roads in single digits. Now we have rare snow that could accumulate in N Virginia tomorrow. McDonnell must have been able to see the future.

  •  WV-03 as I noted on twitter over the weekend (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Christopher Walker, Skaje, wadingo

    Ojeda is from Logan County which is the Democratic base in this district while Rahall is from Raleigh which is the Republican base (he even lost it in 2012). Despite Raleigh being roughly twice as large as Logan, it cast several hundred fewer votes than Logan in the 2008 presidential primary (the last contested even-year one). Still neither county is close to a majority or even plurality of the district's primary electorate, but West Virginia prints the candidate's home county on the ballot and this is one state where parochialism plays a huge role in electoral performances.

    Rahall has had a very moderate voting record and has hit all the right notes on coal, but he did vote for Obamacare which has got to be pretty damn unpopular here. I'm not saying I expect him to lose a primary, but I wouldn't rule it out either. This definitely doesn't help our chances of holding this seat at all.

  •  DW-Nominate question (0+ / 0-)

    One thing I've never quite understood is why there seem to be two separate DW-N scores: those for individual congresses, and those that appear to be a "lifetime" score.

    For example, if you look at Dan Boren in the second link, every time his name comes up (in the 109th through 112th Congresses), he's shown with a DW-N score of -0.081.

    But if you look at the individual files shown at the second link, you get a different number. Here's the 109th: -0.102. (It's the same for the other three.)

    What gives?

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 11:49:48 AM PST

    •  Easy to answer (0+ / 0-)

      My understanding is that the manner in which DW-Nominate is calculated uses the entirety of a congressperson's career to estimate each of the individual congresses, such that when a new estimate is released it affects all prior estimates. When a congressperson retires, the mathematical effect of this is to change all their prior scores to their lifetime score.

      The individual congress files only show the score that was reported at that time for that congress. In other words, those scores are unaffected by later releases (they're recorded at the time of that original release, but never changed down the line in accordance with later releases and their effects on the math).

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:15:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That makes sense (0+ / 0-)

        But the retirement thing isn't true in all cases. For instance, check out John McHugh, whose "lifetime" score changed slightly every Congress.

        I guess my next question would be: Which is better to rely on? I think they'll both ultimately say the same thing, but do researchers typically rely on the "lifetime" files or the individual congress files?

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:36:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re: McHugh (0+ / 0-)

          That could very well be because they've coded him as still being in Congress.

          Ofcourse, there are a bunch of intricacies in the way the scores are created and I do not know the entire ins and outs of it.

          As to what scholars use, it all depends on the researcher and their particular research question. As long as the person can defend their choice well and it makes sense given the context of their research, either is okay.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:47:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  FL-SEN, PRES: Rubio cant be on the ballot for both (15+ / 0-)

    Senate and the Presidency:

    Florida law bars a federal candidate from appearing twice on the same ballot but Rubio can essentially chase the presidency without surrendering the safer re-election campaign.

    In theory, that second part might be true, but in pratice, it's not. I dont think Rubio can chase a presidential run, spend months outside of Florida, moving to the right, and then come back and file for re-election in a swing state, basically saying "never mind, I want to represent Florida." He will have to make a choice, and I think he will choose the easier re-election.

    This highlights what could be a shrinking GOP field. Christie, of course, might not run now. Bob McDonnell almost certainly wont. Rubio could opt for re-election. I think if Scott Walker only narrowly wins another term as governor, it will be hard for him to turn around and run for president in 2016.

    On the other hand, if Kasich, Walker and Snyder win re-election, by 5+ margins(not making a prediction, just saying if), then their names probably get added to the 2016 talk.

    •  Yes, I agree (16+ / 0-)

      Hypothetically, you'd have, say, Patrick Murphy running for Senate while Rubio is off in Iowa. Murphy (or whomever) would be able to generate plenty of hay by lambasting his absentee opponent. Essentially, Murphy would have the field to himself.

      And if Rubio won the nomination (unlikely, I know), the Florida GOP would have to scramble to pick a replacement, while Murphy looks on with a grin as he rakes in the dough.

      Basically, this whole "run for two offices at once" thing really only works if you're in a safe seat (Lieberman, McCain, Biden).

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:11:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Small nitpick, but when did McCain run for both? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        his senate seat was up in 1998, he ran for president in 2000, then it was up in 2004 and 2010 but he ran for president in 2008. I don't think a failed presidential run necessarily dooms your senate career when you aren't up in that cycle, case in point Tom Harkin losing the nomination in 1992 is still serving until retirement next year.

        Overall though I completely agree you have to either have a safe state like Biden's or be very entrenched like LBJ was in 1960 when he was on the ballot for both. However that worked out poorly as John Tower won the 1962 special election when senator LBJ was elected vice president and Republicans have held it ever since. Fun fact, LBJ was reelected in 1954 with 85% of the vote even though a Republican was on the ballot.

      •  I don't buy it that Rubio would be very hurt (0+ / 0-)

        It's a mixed bag, running for President.  Some are very damaged at home by it.  That's been true for Chris Dodd, Michelle Bachmann, long ago Bob Dornan.  But there are plenty of other examples of pols who didn't suffer at all, the voters shrugged it off or even took pride in it.  Tom Harkin, for example, from my home state, never paid a price in '96 for his '92 run.  There are plenty of other examples like him.

        Somehow I suspect Rubio has enough public goodwill and the public's expectations of a Presidential run baked in such that if and when he drops out, voters wouldn't hold it against him in the Senate race.  After all, he was talked of as a possible future national candidate from Day 1, which distinguishes him from people in the past who've been hurt by running.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 05:24:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think Rubio is guaranteed to be hurt, but (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, BKGyptian89

          he leaves himself vulnerable. Democrats always seem to shit the bed in Florida, but they have a lot of things working for them. I don't think they'll be crushed unless 2016 is a bad year, even with Rubio being the incumbent, and if hammering him while he's in Iowa or New Hampshire brings someone like Murphy just a little closer...well, you've got a very competitive race on your hands. Doing anything relating to a Senate race--raising money, giving speeches, meeting people--can only be done by the Democrat in Florida. It's not necessarily fatal, but it won't help at all.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 06:56:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree it CAN hurt, but I doubt it will (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp

            Another thing that I think helps Rubio is that he can consolidate a solid bloc of Cuban Republican voters and prevent the bleeding that might be developing from the GOP among them in other races.  Obama appears to have had a record-high performance with Florida Cubans as Democratic Presidential candidates go.  This helps Rubio mitigate the bleeding with Hispanics overall that the GOP is suffering everywhere.

            All this is to say that Rubio has some margin for error IMO.  That's not true of anyone, anyplace, anytime, but I suspect it's true for Rubio in Florida in 2016.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:28:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Completely inapposite example (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BKGyptian89

          I'm talking about pols running for two offices at the same time.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 10:13:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Christie is running unless he gets indicted... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Tayya

      ...or something really really bad happens to him.  He's in for the long haul.  Rubio is a joke. If he runs, he'll get hammered.  Walker is probably running unless he loses.  Kasich may want to run, too, but he strongly fails the "I want to have a beer with you" test.  His personality and demeanor is not geared well for a presidential race.  Snyder, maybe... but, he's a pretty lousy politician overall.  His victories have been mostly the result of an inept opposition party.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:12:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What are the odds Fla changes law? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, wadingo

      I mean they have a GOP Gov and Lege right?

      Or would Jeb Bush machine make sure this didn't happen behind the scenes of course?  

      Ky is more restrictive than this as it effects the primary ballot as well.  The end around being Paul doesn't submit the signatures to appear on Pres primary ballot in Ky, ie sacrifice those delegates in order to still be eligible to run for Senate re-election.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:46:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  But even if they did (0+ / 0-)

        I think it's not feasible for Rubio to run for both.

        Paul, I could see giving up a re-election bid to focus on a presidential bid.

      •  It's a double edge sword (5+ / 0-)

        There's no guaranteed benefit from them changing the law. He can still make himself vulnerable by running for President, does horribly in the primary, and turns around and decide to run for re-election. He'll put his seat and re-election in jeopardy.

        And plus nobody is going to announce until 2015. Gov. Crist will be in office again, and their won't even be a debate nor conversation to change the law. And last but not least Rubio will never ever be President anyway.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:01:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It's doubtful he'll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      even bother. Even Rubio knows that he's finished after the immigration fiasco. He'll probably wait till 2020.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:26:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MD-Gov: Sierra Club endorses Mizeur (7+ / 0-)

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:49:28 PM PST

  •  Rasmussen Generic Ballot (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41%, Republicans 35%

    Take it FWIW. It is interesting that Ras has gone from being  Republican leaning to consistently having the best numbers for  Dems (they also have Obama's job approval at 49%).

    Vote Democratic. We're not perfect-but they're NUTS! - Barney Frank

    by Minnesota Mike on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 12:52:49 PM PST

  •  Christie's nationwide unfavorable rating doubles (7+ / 0-)

    in one year from 17% to 34%:
    http://www.people-press.org/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:09:01 PM PST

    •  Biggest jump among Dems (4+ / 0-)

      25 point increase in unfavorables among Dems. Might be the most lasting problem from this scandal; Christie seen as less of a bipartisan leader.

      •  Favorables with Republicans flat (7+ / 0-)

        But unfavorables up 7. Doesn't support the idea this could all help in a GOP primary.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:27:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  You're looking too short-term (0+ / 0-)

          This matters over time as the story stays in the news.

          And it would matter more right now if it were fall 2015, when rivals are looking for openings to attack each other and doing so, while GOP voters are hypersensitive.

          When we're this far out, one thing that happens is that the general public is much more desensitized.  After all, they don't care about politics, they're not paying attention to elections at all at this stage of a cycle.  And they're certainly not paying attention to political figures who aren't even in their own state and aren't running for President...which Christie right now is not, same as everyone else who gets talked up as a Presidential candidate.

          So a scandal like this might matter to voters a couple months before the Iowa caucuses, but it doesn't matter now.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 05:47:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Quote (5+ / 0-)

      "Majorities of Democrats (67%) and independents (60%) who heard at least a little about Christie’s aides ordering the lane closure do not believe Christie’s statement that he had no knowledge of his aides’ involvement."

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:28:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Some data from Spain (5+ / 0-)

    This is how is working the economic policy of Mariano Rajoy in Spain.

    In 2013:
    - The salary of the executives increased a 7%.
    - The salary of the mid level employees decreased a 3.8%.
    - The salary of the low level employees decreased a 0.4%.

    •  I would guess that both he and the (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, betelgeux, wadingo, James Allen

      right in Portugal would lose the next election. It's just really tough for either party though to make a huge impact with the electorate given the constraints of the Eurozone and ECB preventing the economy from recovering. So far the winning ticket is just to not be in government as we've seen pretty much everywhere in Europe.

      The left has a pretty healthy majority lead in Portugal but in Spain it's looking more like a healthy plurality, just judging off the polling averages. Additionally the left opposition is polling ahead in Sweden and the UK while Greece remains too close to call as SYRIZA (radical left wing) would have to come outright first past the post to get the +50 bonus MPs, but they've been leading narrowly the last several polls and thankfully Golden Dawn (nazi party) has fallen below double digits though that's still a frighteningly high level.

      •  ECB? (7+ / 0-)

        How did Elizabeth Colbert Busch gain control of the European economy?

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 01:52:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  In Spain Rajoy is toast (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, betelgeux, wadingo, nimh

        (reposting the answer to you, I made a mistake)

        The Spanish government is done. The real question is when will end the nigthmare of the PPs government.

        As example I included not data about the pensionists. Their salary increased a 0.25% but their taxes where also increased and the effective salary of the pensionists also was decreased in 2013.

        The PP has zero chance of governing after the following elections because they have not allies. They would need to win again an absolute majority and this is out of the prospect.

        Maybe you hear about the reform of the regressive abortion law in Spain. The ministry of justice that is impulsing the reform is the son in law of one of the lasts living ministers of Franco.

        While the opposition to the PP has very different groups, they have one commont point with unanimous support, and it is to send the neo-francoist government of the PP out of the power.

        Spain exists not as a country. Only the military power has keept the state the last centuries. Now is not 1936, the military power can not be used against the citizens and the people know it.

      •  Sweden, Portugal and Spain (0+ / 0-)

        I was going through Electonista's database of election polling across the EU (which is a great resource, though it could be greater with a better clarification between national election and European election polls, and if it linked to sources). The election polls in Portugal and Sweden, and to some extent Spain, are really a welcome bright spot for the left in Europe, in what is otherwise a pretty gloomy landscape right now.

        I'm not too impressed by the polling for Labour in the UK, for three reasons: (a) the lead it's enjoying is no larger than the kind Kinnock's Labour used to enjoy in between elections; (2) UKIP is gobbling up a sizable share of the vote which could easily revert back to the Tories in national elections; and (3) Ed Milliband personally polls much worse than Cameron.

        If you go solely by labels I suppose Slovakia should also count as a bright spot for the left, but I refuse to see Fixo's SMER as a bona fide social-democratic party. Italy's polling seems to have gotten a little better with Renzi in charge of the PD, though the guy's a bit too Blairite for my taste.

  •  In Spain Rajoy is a toast (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    The Spanish government is done. The real question is when will end the nigthmare of the PPs government.

    As example I included not data about the pensionists. Their salary increased a 0.25% but their taxes where also increased and the effective salary of the pensionists also was decreased in 2013.

    The PP has zero chance of governing after the following elections because they have not allies. They would need to win again an absolute majority and this is out of the prospect.

    Maybe you hear about the reform of the regressive abortion law in Spain. The ministry of justice that is impulsing the reform is the son in law of one of the lasts living ministers of Franco.

    While the opposition to the PP has very different groups, they have one commont point with unanimous support, and it is to send the neo-francoist government of the PP out of the power.

    Spain exists not as a country. Only the military power has keept the state the last centuries. Now is not 1936, the military power can not be used against the citizens and the people know it.

  •  Wisconsin AD-1: Rep. Garey Bies (R) retiring. (8+ / 0-)

    If the Dems make any kind of gains here in 2014, this will be the second most likely seat to turn Blue.

    The seat is R+2, though Romney only got 49.6% here. Tammy Baldwin however actually WON this seat.

    Bies was the long-time Sheriff of swingy Door County and chairman of the powerful corrections committe, so he stuck. However, he only won 51%-49% in 2008 and 2012, very narrowly defeating Democrats Dick Skare and Patrick Veeser respectively. Veeser actually won Kewaunee County where both Romney and Thompson carried it in 2012, so there is plenty of room for growth for the Democrats in an open-seat Race.

    Our Democratic candidate Arnie Johnsrud is from Southern Door County. He's a machinist, an agriculture instructor, and a Vietnam Vet. He damn near won the Dem Primary in 2012 (only lost by 30 votes!), so he's got political chops.

    If November is favorable to us, watch this seat.

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:10:05 PM PST

  •  According to @notlarrysabato (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, nimh

    If Gov. McAuliffe declares a state of emergency in Fairfax and Loudoun due to the snowstorm tomorrow, the SD-33 special will be delayed. Would it be better for us if it goes on as planned tomorrow despite potentially adverse weather conditions or if it is delayed?

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:12:11 PM PST

  •  Qualifications for Governor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian

    As I was writing my comments above, I was thinking to myself, "what sorts of people are the best qualified to be the Governor of a state?"

    So I thought I'd make a list of people (and positions) that I feel make a person qualified to be Governor of their state.

    1. Member of Congress (either House or Senate)
    2. Statewide elected official
    3. Mayor of major city (or executive of major county) in state
    4. State legislative leader

    Of course, there will be occasional exceptions, and sometimes the better choice will be someone who isn't on this list rather than someone who is (VA-Gov 2013 comes to mind). But what do you think? Can such situations be accounted for? Am I missing any position, or do you disagree with any of the positions on the list?

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:13:59 PM PST

    •  CEO of a big business or non-profit (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, wadingo, James Allen

      college president perhaps, or a high ranking military officer. Anything where you're having to manage and work with a large pool of people who are your subordinates.

      •  leadership in a military context (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nimh, James Allen

        is quite dramatically different from the leadership a civilian executive has to display (I can't think of a better word than display).

      •  I guess I just think (0+ / 0-)

        that CEOs and college presidents don't have enough experience with how government works to be effective governors.

        IMHO, Governor shouldn't be an entry-level political position; people should have to win elections at some lower level before becoming Governor.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:38:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I suppose I was thinking more along the lines (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, wadingo

          of what sort of positions seem very qualified in the eyes of voters. Obviously you or I might disagree with that, particularly on the military, but you still see plenty of such candidates run for high level positions as first timers.

          Notable examples in recent years, Richard Carmona for AZ-Sen, John Walsh for MT-Lt. Gov and now sen, Bill Enyart for IL-12, etc. etc.

          Which leads me to another category: career bureaucrats/administrators. Don Berwick is running for MA-Gov and has seemingly done fairly well thus far for a first time candidate.

          •  Would this category also include (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            calvinshobbes

            Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania?

            I agree that career bureaucrats/administrators could be good governors. However, since (in general) they hold relatively low-visibility positions before their runs, and they lack a geographic base, they would be unlikely to win primaries (I don't think either Berwick or McGinty will even get close to winning their primaries). So while they may be qualified to be Governor, it seems that they are less likely to actually become Governor than members of the other groups that I mentioned.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:45:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected president... (0+ / 0-)

            ...despite having never held prior elected office, and he was a high-ranking military officer prior to being elected president.

            There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

            by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:13:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  they may not have a lot of experience working in (0+ / 0-)

        a system where they don't have total control.  I think a lot of the time legislators aren't ideal executives, but at least they understand the limited and balanced powers that branches of government have.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 09:13:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I would put (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, David Jarman

      state legislative leader higher.  Someone who is a House speaker or a Senate leader of a state legislature is already familiar with the intricacies of the government of that state and is connected to people in the legislature which could be helpful for passing their agenda (this may or may not apply in the case of a random backbencher in the state legislature).   A member of Congress may or may not have previously served in their state's government and has likely spent a lot of time away from the state in the years prior to their election, meaning while they may have an advantage in getting elected they may not be more effective as Governor.  

      The current governors who served as state legislative leaders are Hassan, Kitzhaber, Shumlin and Tomblin.
      The current governors who served in Congress are Deal, Abercrombie, Otter, Brownback, Jindal, Dayton, Kasich, Fallin, Chafee and Inslee.  While it's hard to make sweeping generalizations, I think that the first group overall has been more effective at governing (and not just because they're all Dems) and are more popular in their states than the second group.  

      •  Actually, (0+ / 0-)

        my list was not meant to signify any particular order or ranking, although I see how it could be construed as such.

        I agree with you that in general, state legislative leaders can be better governors than members of Congress, however I also believe that mayors of major cities and other statewide officials can be just as good governors.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:40:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          and being mayor of a major city is probably the closest you can get to executive experience prior to being elected Governor since depending on the type of city you will be working with a City Council that functions as a small-scale legislature; people like O'Malley, Hickenlooper, Rendell and McCrory seem to be very effective at working to get their priorities passed and implemented.  

          •  Scratch McCrory off that list (0+ / 0-)

            all the "priorities" have come from the legislature and he's basically the NC version of Romney with seemingly no core agenda other than getting elected and doing...? Tillis and Berger have been running the state while McCrory has been just doling out patronage with executive branch positions.

            Maybe a better model might have been Bill Haslam in Tennessee who was the mayor of Knoxville, but then again he also has a Republican legislature which could easily override his vetoes since all you need is a simple majority (but they have 2/3rds anyway). However the same could be said of O'Malley yet you get the impression he has been pushing for a lot of what was passed post-2010.

            •  O'Malley (0+ / 0-)

              has definitely been driving the bus in Maryland.  SSM mostly came from the Assembly (though he lobbied for it) but the Maryland version of the DREAM act, the elimination of the death penalty, and a lot of the budget stuff has all been him.  

    •  I think (0+ / 0-)

      it's more their connections than their position. Terry Macauliffe is an example of a connected non-politician who seems like he'll be a decent governor. If someone's well-connected to power brokers in the state leg, that person is likely to be a good governor who can push his agenda through.

      Take Bobby Jindal for instance. He's well-qualified for his position, technically, but his feuds with people like David Vitter and some folks in the legislature have stalled his agenda and made him incredibly unpopular. I wouldn't be surprised if we take LA-Gov next year as a result, especially if we run Mitch Landrieu.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:44:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's an interesting point (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        but I'm not sure how applicable the VA-Gov situation is to other states, since the reason why McAuliffe was so well-connected was because he was the DNC Chair, and not that many people have been the DNC/RNC Chairs.

        As for Louisiana, I don't think we'll win it either way. It's just too red a state, and I personally believe that no non-incumbent Dem (aka no Dem not named Mary Landrieu) will win a statewide election there in a while.

        (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

        by ProudNewEnglander on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:24:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  LA's open to Dems (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, JBraden

          And I think a Mitch Landrieu candidacy is fairly likely, ~65%. He's gotta have bigger ambitions than just a mayorship. He's got the name, he's got the popularity, and he'll definitely have the fundraising potential to do it.

          Or maybe he'll hit up Vitter's seat if Vitter runs for LA Gov like many expect. Dunno how well that'd fly though. Has there ever been a case where a pair of siblings was elected senators to a state?

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (TBD - Likely Celia Israel-D)

          by Le Champignon on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:44:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'd swap #1 and #2 (0+ / 0-)

      Below #4, in the following order:

      5) military officer
      6) large business executive/labor union leader/head of other type of organization/institution
      7) national political party chairperson
      8) backbench state legislator (i.e., not in leadership)
      9) state political party chairperson
      10) federal or state cabinet member
      11) other political operative/lobbyist
      12) local elected official other than county executive/mayor of large city (mayor of small municipality, county clerk, district/state's attorney, city councilor, etc.)
      13) television/radio personality
      14) small business owner/tradesperson/low-level government employee
      15) obscure person

      There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:26:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lol, VA Republicans look flat pathetic now. (11+ / 0-)

    They just voted to re-redistrict the State Senate again:
    http://bluevirginia.us/...
    Even if this goes to the Governor's desk, need I remind you who the Governor is now?  And vetoes in VA require 2/3rds votes to override:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    If/when Democrats win back the majority tomorrow, it's time Republicans are inundated with humble pie.  Republicans gave a token chairmanship to Democrats when it was 20-20 with LG Bolling, Democrats should give them nothing in return for that and for this and last year's attempts to re-redistrict to make GOP gerrymanders.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 03:40:06 PM PST

  •  CA-Same-day reg: Projected to start in 2016 (10+ / 0-)

    23, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 04:45:01 PM PST

    •  We really could use it in 2014. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, PassionateJus

      I don't know what the logistics are and how hard it would be to implement but something like this would really help us in 2014 and midterm years I would also like to see California switch to all-mail voting like Oregon/Washington and have automatic voter registration as well.

  •  NE-Gov: Pete Ricketts gets Scott Walker endorsment (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Scott Walker will be in Omaha next Monday for a rally to endorse Pete Ricketts for governor.

    http://journalstar.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 05:27:46 PM PST

  •  Howey's takes today on HJR-3 (5+ / 0-)

    in Indiana. Speaker Bosma seems like he is hell bent to get this thing to the floor, hell or high water, whether he has to remove committee members or switch committees. The second article is interesting because it reveals something that seems counter to what accepted thought was. Everybody seemed to think Bosma wasn't really that interested in the amendment, when in fact, he was a driving force behind it. And Howey reports GOP caucuses have been very contentious and they are having trouble getting other committee work done. And on top of everything- Mike Pence is pushing it hard now, instead of dropping the civil union provision, which pushes the amendment to 2016- because he doesn't want to be on the ballot with the amendment. But the GOP State Central Committee doesn't want it in 2014 because they fear it will cost them a statewide office and could hurt Wacky Jackie in the 2nd.

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    http://howeypolitics.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 05:32:12 PM PST

  •  MN-GOP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp

    The state party has reduced its debt by 40% in two years. At this rate, the party will be in the black some time around new years day 2018. This is actually faster than I figured they would be able to do it.

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 07:31:06 PM PST

  •  LA-GOV: Senator Diaper to announce tomorrow? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JacobNC, Gygaxian, KingofSpades, askew

    The folks at RRH seem to think so I'm wondering if Dems have any chance to win this race with Vitter does anyone still care about his incident I feel like he wasn't really tested in 2010 because of the wave.

  •  Drip # 3: Carl Lewis threatened by Christie (8+ / 0-)

    This time it was Christie personally, not his underlings, making the threat:  http://www.nj.com/...

    This is relatively small time, that Lewis won't be made a ceremonial "youth fitness ambassador" to promote kids' physical fitness, if he ran for state Senate as a Democrat against a GOP incumbent.  But that the punishment was small time also only underscores how petty Christie was.  And he made this threat personally and directly to Lewis over the phone.

    This is fun.  I wasn't sure that any more stories would break, because in these scandal allegations they don't always.

    But like George Allen's history of racism was repeatedly exposed by more and more people after his "macaca" attack, now we're seeing people emboldened to come forward who were scared before.

    45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:51:10 PM PST

  •  MN-07: Petersen "90%" certain to run again: (15+ / 0-)

    http://www.mprnews.org/...

    Republican operatives have been spreading rumors that Peterson may follow some of his fellow Blue Dogs into retirement next year. While Peterson was noncommittal when asked recently, he was more irritated by attempts to push him towards the door last June, after Republicans put an anti-Peterson sign on a truck and drove it through his home town of Detroit Lakes.

    "I went from neutral to running again to 90 percent just because of this stupid stuff they're doing," Peterson said. "You can't let these people be in charge of anything in my opinion."

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 08:54:28 PM PST

  •  OR st house: another R retires (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, SaoMagnifico, PassionateJus

    Wally Hicks of HD-03 (Grants Pass), meaning HDs 2, 3, and 4 are all open. Not notable in that it won't be competitive, but notable in that he's young and the minority whip and that makes more than a third of all Rs in the state house that are leaving. Tells me they see no hope of getting anywhere in the state house.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 20, 2014 at 10:04:45 PM PST

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