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8:34 AM PT: NY-11: By now, you've surely seen this video of Republican Rep. Michael Grimm threatening a reporter with physical violence shortly after Tuesday night's State of the Union address:

The transcript:
"So Congressman Michael Grimm does not want to talk about some of the allegations concerning his campaign finances," Scotto said before tossing back to the station. But as the camera continued to roll, Grimm walked back up to Scotto and began speaking to him in a low voice.

"What?" Scotto responded. "I just wanted to ask you..."

Grimm: "Let me be clear to you, you ever do that to me again I'll throw you off this f-----g balcony."

Scotto: "Why? I just wanted to ask you..."

[[cross talk]]

Grimm: "If you ever do that to me again..."

Scotto: "Why? Why? It's a valid question."

[[cross talk]]

Grimm: "No, no, you're not man enough, you're not man enough. I'll break you in half. Like a boy."

Grimm released a statement afterwards:
"I was extremely annoyed because I was doing NY1 a favor by rushing to do their interview first in lieu of several other requests. The reporter knew that I was in a hurry and was only there to comment on the State of the Union, but insisted on taking a disrespectful and cheap shot at the end of the interview, because I did not have time to speak off-topic. I verbally took the reporter to task and told him off, because I expect a certain level of professionalism and respect, especially when I go out of my way to do that reporter a favor. I doubt that I am the first Member of Congress to tell off a reporter, and I am sure I won't be the last."
On Wednesday morning, Grimm had apparently changed his stance, as the reporter he threatened, New York 1's Michael Scotto, sent out this tweet:
@repmichaelgrimm called to apologize. He said he "overreacted." I accepted his apology.
@mikescotto

8:49 AM PT: Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso has Tuesday's recap:

Pennsylvania HD-78: Unsurprisingly, Republicans held this seat easily, with Jesse Topper defeating Barbara Barron by an 82-18 landslide.

Texas HD-50: Democrats held onto this seat; Celia Israel defeated Republican Mike VanDeWalle by a 59-41 margin.

A third special election in Alabama was delayed a week due to bad weather.

10:07 AM PT: FL-19: I guess retirement suits him: Republican ex-Rep. Connie Mack, who had been contemplating a comeback ever since (now former) Rep. Trey Radel plead guilty to cocaine possession charges last year, has decided against seeking his old seat.

11:01 AM PT: GA-Gov: The full story of Atlanta's snowstorm has yet to be written, but given the nightmarish conditions it's still imposing on the region, there could very well be political casualties, too. Gov. Nathan Deal and Mayor Kasim Reed are already the subject of lacerating criticism over their inadequate preparations for and responses to the storm, and it's going to get worse for them before it gets better. Of course, it's far too early to start predicting that this debacle have the same impact that the notorious snowstorm of Feb. 1969 had on New York City Mayor John Lindsey's re-election bid that year. But Deal faces a legitimate challenge from Democratic state Sen. Jason Carter this fall, and Reed has statewide ambitions someday, so it's worth keeping an eye on how this affects their futures.

11:11 AM PT: PA-06, -08, NJ-03: Even though he has no political experience and was a Republican until last month, the Democratic establishment has now fully coalesced around businessman Mike Parrish's bid for retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach's seat in Pennsylvania's 6th District. Nancy Pelosi is coming to Philadelphia next week to raise money for Parrish, along with Army vet Kevin Strouse, who is running in the 8th, and Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard, who is seeking New Jersey's open 3rd District, just across the Delaware River. Previously, the DCCC confirmed on the record that they weren't talking to any candidates other than Parrish, and pretty much everyone else considering a bid has said no at this point.

11:20 AM PT (Darth Jeff): Kentucky: Filing closed Tuesday in Kentucky for the May 20 primary. There were no surprises in the Senate race: Incumbent Mitch McConnell will duke it out in the GOP primary with businessman Matt Bevin, and the winner will face Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. A few Some Dudes from each party are also in the mix.

All six of the state's Congressmen are running for reelection and should have little trouble winning. Somewhat surprisingly, Paulist GOP Rep. Tom Massie is getting off without a primary challenger. Daily Kos Elections rates all the seats as safe for the party that holds them. The GOP controls all the seats except Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth's KY-03.

Two big cities will also hold mayoral elections this year. In Louisville, Democratic Mayor Greg Fischer faces only token opposition from Republican candidate Bob DeVore. DeVore was last seen running as an independent in KY-03 in 2012, winning less than 2 percent of the vote. In Lexington, Democratic Mayor Jim Gray is favored but attracted a last-minute credible challenge from former police chief Anthany Beatty.

12:00 PM PT: GA-Sen: PPP's new Georgia poll for Americans United for Change once again finds Democrat Michelle Nunn with small leads over her top GOP rivals, similar to where things stood last August. Here's how Nunn stacks up, with trendlines in parentheses:

• 45-41 vs. Rep. Phil Gingrey (41-41)

• 44-40 vs. ex-SoS Karen Handel (40-38)

• 44-42 vs. Rep. Jack Kingston (40-38)

• 42-41 vs. Rep. Paul Broun (41-36)

Unfortunately, AUFC's release doesn't include favorability scores for any of these candidates, but the fact that Nunn has held up over the last six months is a strong sign for her. This may be due to the fact that the Republican candidates have been busy beating one another up and haven't really been able to focus on Nunn, with a primary and probable runoff looming. This is why it can be good to have the field all to yourself.

12:15 PM PT: KY-Sen: Americans United for Change also commissioned a Kentucky poll from PPP, and the numbers there are basically the same as we've seen all along. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has a 45-44 edge for Democrat Alison Grimes; last month, he was up 43-42, and PPP's three prior polls all had the race between 0 and 2 points, so I'm not sure what the purpose is in repeatedly polling here. McConnell's job approvals have recovered a bit, though: He's still at an awful 37-51, but that's better than December's 31-61 mark.

1:03 PM PT: FL-13: The Republican Party of Florida is absolutely flooding the 13th District with mailers attacking Democrat Alex Sink, to the tune of almost $214,000. With an expenditure this large, there may be multiple different pieces of literature involved, but this hit (on Sink's alleged misuse of state aircraft) is probably part of this blast. EMILY's List, meanwhile, is shelling out a much more modest $15,000 on mail going after Republican David Jolly.

Meanwhile, the NRCC also filed a report for its latest independent expenditure, another $218,000 for TV ads. That brings their total advertising outlay to about $422,000 so far. The DCCC has so far spent $247,000 on ads.

1:11 PM PT: MN-07: Rep. Collin Peterson, who holds down a red district that Democrats would be hard-pressed to keep if he retires, now says he will "probably" decide whether to seek another term "by the first of March." That's very similar to what Peterson did last cycle, when he also didn't announce his plans until early March of 2012.

1:15 PM PT: OK-Sen-B: As expected, state House Speaker T.W. Shannon officially entered the special election for Tom Coburn's Senate seat on Wednesday, setting up a GOP primary battle with Rep. James Lankford. Rep. Jim Bridenstine also confirmed on the record that he would not run. There are still a couple of notable names considering the race, though, including Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb and ex-Rep. J.C. Watts.

1:24 PM PT: PA-13: State Sen. Daylin Leach, one of four candidates in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Allyson Schwartz, just received the endorsement of the guy who preceded Schwartz, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel. However, the district lines changed considerably (the new 13th contains only around 57 percent of the old 13th), and Hoeffel has been out of office for a decade.

1:26 PM PT: PA-Gov: Republican pollster Gravis Marketing has some bad numbers for GOP Gov. Tom Corbett. He loses 48-36 to Rob McCord, 44-35 to Allyson Schwartz, and 41-34 to Tom Wolf.

2:24 PM PT: NJ-03: Evesham Mayor Randy Brown has decided not to seek the GOP nomination for New Jersey's open 3rd Congressional District, specifically citing his disgust with the amount of money he'd have needed to raise ($45,000 a week, in his estimation). He also took a shot at Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, a fellow Republican who lost last year's special Senate election to Cory Booker and is traipsing clear across the state to run in the 3rd. Brown called Lonegan a "carpetbagger" who "doesn't know the district" and said his candidacy is "craziness.

2:26 PM PT: VA-08: Lavern Chatman, a former CEO of Northern Virginia's Urban League, says she's considering a run in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 8th and will decide this week.

2:39 PM PT (Darth Jeff): President-by-LD: Today we make a stop over in the state of Delaware, where the beaches are nice and the Bidens are aplenty. We have results calculated by both the House and Senate for President, US Senate, US Representative, governor, lieutenant governor, and insurance commissioner (we also have them calculated by the state's lone Congressional District, which wasn't too difficult).

For decades the Republicans held a majority in the state House of Representatives, only losing power in 2008. It doesn't look like they'll be rebounding anytime soon though. Obama carried 28 of the 41 house districts, and Democrats hold a similar 27 to 14 majority in the chamber.

If Republicans ever want a shot at regaining power they're going to need a lot more voters to split their tickets: Only two Republicans come from Obama districts, while one Democrat represents a Romney seat. The median district went for Obama 60-38, about three points to the left of the entire state. The map below created by Stephen Wolf visualizes each seat; darker colors represent Reps. sitting in a district that was won by their party's Presidential nominee, while lighter colors show Reps. sitting in a seat won by the opposite party in the Presidential election.

The Democratic Senate majority dates back decades and it's not going anywhere. Obama carried 14 of the 21 districts, and Democrats hold a 13 to eight edge. Once again, two Republicans sit in Obama districts while one Democrat holds a Romney seat. The median seat went blue 57-41, about two points to the right of the state. Of course, Delaware Democrats don't need a particularly aggressive gerrymander to stay in power. Stephen Wolf's Senate map visualizes this as well.

All five of Delaware's local statewide Democrats ran ahead of Obama, but only Sen. Tom Carper and Gov. Jack Markell were able to win every single one of the state's 62 legislative districts. Carper's Some Dude Republican opponent came within six votes of flipping HD-38, a heartbreakingly close loss that probably has never kept him up at night.

2:44 PM PT: OH-14: Hrm. State Rep. Matt Lynch has reportedly "pulled paperwork" with an eye toward challenging freshman Rep. David Joyce in the GOP primary. Joyce, you'll recall, was hand-picked by local Republican leaders in 2012 after Rep. Steve LaTourette decided not to seek re-election months after the primary, meaning other ambitious Republicans in the area haven't had a chance to vie for this seat. If Lynch does indeed take the plunge, that could be good news for Democrat Michael Wager, who wouldn't be unhappy to see his opponent's coffers drained.

2:54 PM PT: 4Q Fundraising:

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): $270,000 raised

CO-06: Andrew Romanoff (D): $459,000 raised, $1.7 million cash-on-hand

MA-06: Richard Tisei (R): $435,000 cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:00:16 AM PST

  •  Warren Buffett's Congressman Father (7+ / 0-)

    So I'm reading a book about Warren Buffett by Roger Lowenstein. I'm not that far into it, but in the first parts, they discuss how miserable he was living in Washington when his father was first elected, the point where he lied his way about not being able to sleep so he could go back to Omaha and then eventually ran away before being questioned by the police, because they thought, since he and another guy were so tall, the third guy they were with was a kid they had kidnapped. His father, and especially his grandfather, were Goldbug-types, warning of the evils of government intervention and Social Security. Much further right than I expected, in other words.

    Perhaps most amusingly, despite Omaha being solidly Republican, they couldn't find anyone to run on their side, given FDR's strength. They got Buffett's father, but he didn't expect to win, so he typed up a concession speech the night of the election and then went to bed. His local connections were a lot stronger than he realized, and he ended up winning.

    I wonder when the advent of more campaign tactics--polling and so on--was. Does anyone have any ideas?

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:16:52 AM PST

  •  Mandated minority party representation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This is something that's been marinating in the back of my head for a couple weeks - I went to a panel on the role of the left in elections the other day ("the left" being to the left, though somewhat more practically-minded on average, of most front-pagers on this website) which was pretty decent.

    Something that was brought up in passing, however, was the fact that some places have mandated minority party representation to some degree. The only time I've heard of this being the case is on some school boards in Connecticut; I've heard stuff that it may be the case in Washington DC or Philadelphia, but how exactly does it work?

    Not that I'm advocating for third parties at the expense of Democrats; I know that's forbidden on this website (and the time for that, if any, is at a future point). But I have gotten interested in having the most progressive policies we can in the cities, and I think many of us agree that a couple of, say, Green Party members on a city council is better than having a couple of Republicans.

    "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:25:05 AM PST

  •  Can Grimm (NY-11) still be replaced on ballot? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, MichaelNY

    At this point could Grimm be replaced on the ballot as the GOP nominee due to recent events, or has the deadline passed?

    Intelligence agencies keep things secret because they often violate the rule of law or of good behavior. -Julian Assange-

    by ChadmanFL on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:37:48 AM PST

    •  I don't believe NY has had its primary elections (10+ / 0-)

      yet, so someone could theoretically challenge him.

      But I don't see his outburst yesterday as provoking any Republican ire so much that he loses the nomination...

    •  I don't know, I think going all Bobby Etheridge (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      on a reporter could very well loose him this one. Particularly in an Obama district.

      "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

      by BlueSasha on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:05:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It didn't hurt Etheridge that much (0+ / 0-)

        he only lost by 1 in a swing district in a terrible year for Democrats.

        Formerly known as psychicpanda. NC-04

        by JacobNC on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:13:44 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This seems at a whole other level though... (5+ / 0-)

          Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

          by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:17:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Huh (12+ / 0-)

          I always viewed the incident as being quite damaging to Etheridge. Remember, Renee Ellmers was running against him—a true nobody, on the level of Blake Farenthold. Yes, it was 2010, but Etheridge was not viewed as particularly vulnerable. In fact, check out this Politico piece from the time:

          North Carolina congressional candidate Renee Ellmers has failed to capitalize on last month’s furor over incumbent Democratic Rep. Bobby Etheridge’s physical altercation with a questioner who stopped him on the sidewalk.

          Video of Etheridge grabbing the man who stopped him — and demanding to know the man's identity — spread quickly online and drew attention to the congressman's long-shot challenger. But a month later, Ellmers, a nurse who heads the Dunn Area Chamber of Commerce, has just $42,000 in the bank and little support from national Republicans.

          The National Republican Congressional Committee has yet to add Ellmers to its “Young Guns” program, which supports top recruits. Etheridge, meanwhile, has a war chest of $1.2 million.

          “I think there was an initial excitement that resulted from the video, but there was quickly a realization that the campaign wasn’t ready for prime time,” added the strategist.
          That was a Republican strategist, mind you. Anyhow, I looked back at our ratings: We started the cycle with NC-02 at Safe D and only moved it to Likely D in July. Then we only moved it to Lean D right before Election Day—and it's pretty rare for someone to lose a Lean race.

          So I do think that the video wound up hurting Etheridge quite a bit, because Ellmers and the GOP wound up making better use of it later in the cycle.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:43:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  It might be relevant in the general election, but (6+ / 0-)

        I don't seriously think a single Republican will be upset with the fact that he threatened a member of the lamestream media.

        Grimm already released a statement defending himself and making it seem like the reporter didn't "respect" him....same shit a bully says after he punches the nerdy gay kid for doing nothing wrong...and we all know where the right-wing falls when it comes to defending the bully or the innocent victim

        •  I agree. I was thinking the race against Recchia. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I'm sure he'll have a field day with this.

          "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

          by BlueSasha on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:23:15 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I Think A Lot of Republicans Will Be Upset (6+ / 0-)

          He threatened the life of a reporter asking a legitimate question regarding an investigation into an ethics violation.

          It wasn't like he was accosted by the reporter; he was being interviewed. And it isn't like the reporter was asking him a personal question, such as a sex scandal.

          I read a lot of comments about this last night, on twitter, on Grimm's Facebook page and on news sites. I'd say I saw one person defend him and several hundred attack him, including some from Republicans.

          Conservatives don't like this guy anyway, they feel like he's GOP-lite. He just co-sponsored ENDA this week, for instance.

          I can see someone challenging him in the primary, especially after last night.

          •  You're probably right (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV

            Many Republicans in New York are not that right-wing, as shown by who they've elected. They're people who don't like paying taxes, but they are often not social conservatives, and many of them are not assholes, even if the policies they support are institutionally racist and harmful to the poor.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:15:24 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  He Will Probably Get a Primary Challenge (0+ / 0-)

      due to this, the investigation and the fact that many Republicans think he's too "progressive" (he just came out in support of ENDA)

      •  New York is not an easy state to get on the ballot (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Unless the Oddo folks want a purge (which is more trouble than it's really worth) chances are no one will run.  And if anyone does their petitions will be challenged in court until they are thrown off the ballot. The only real chance would be if Vito gets in and he certainly would love his old job back.  But challenging a sitting congressman is a tall task.  And if Grimm were to go down Fossella would have a much clearer shot at the gold ring in 2016.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:59:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Do you think Fossella would win (0+ / 0-)

          if he ran this year?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:05:30 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd guess no. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            But it's hard to say.  Institutionally just about everyone in the Republican establishment would be either supporting Grimm or sitting on their hands.  Fossella would need conservative activists unhappy with Grimm's record to come out for him.  The problem is the Tea Party groups have been in disarray and their leadership is easily co-opted.

            And of course the elephant in the room.  A large number of Republicans see Fossella as damaged goods.  No matter how bad things get for Grimm he still has yet to be forced out of Congress.  Fossella has.

            But there is room to Grimm's right and you never know what can happen in a low turnout election night.
             

            The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

            by Taget on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 06:28:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Yes and any deadline is fuzzy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      Nominating petitions still haven't gone out.  They will in March.  On those petitions there will probably be a committee specified who would be able to choose who they would replace him with.  The filing deadline is April, maybe May.  Too lazy to look it up.  And of course he could drop out any time before the primary.  On his petition should be a named commitee would choose a replacement for him.

      Assuming he is nominated he can be replaced if he is nominated for a judgeship or if he moves outside the state.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:53:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gallup Party ID Poll (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.gallup.com/...

    Record high number of self-identified Independents.  Note, party self-ID is not the same as actual party registration.

    Still more people in West Virginia and Kentucky identify as Democrats than Republicans although it is a very narrow edge.  Party registration in WV is D+25 but party self-ID is only D+2.

    Swing States:

    Florida: 44-40 Democratic
    Pennsylvania: 45-42 Democratic
    Nevada: 42-40 Democratic
    Wisconsin: 43-42 Democratic
    Ohio: 43-43 Tie
    North Carolina: 42-41 Republican
    Virginia: 42-41 Republican
    Iowa: 43-41 Republican
    Colorado: 44-40 Republican

    Michigan doesn't seem much like a swing state: 46-37 Democratic.

    •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

      Good numbers: Florida
      Bad numbers: every other state
      Very bad numbers: Colorado, to a lesser degree North Carolina and Virginia

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:44:31 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In 2008, in Colorado, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        killacity, MichaelNY

        the CNN exit polls had the state as 30/31/39. In 2012, it was 34/29/37.

        Maybe the exit polls are bad for some reason, because does that make sense? It seems odd to me.

        You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

        by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:49:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Colorado is a historically conservative state (12+ / 0-)

          Many voters in Colorado Springs and the Denver suburbs are likely still nominally identifying as Republican or Independent while acting as de facto Democrats.  This trend was observable in Connecticut and Vermont in the 1990s and the Republican inverse is probably West Virginia or Kentucky.

          29, Hispanic, Current home: MO-05; Born: CA-13; Raised: CA-5; Political Work: KS-03, KS-02; Other work: TX-16

          by killacity on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:26:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Also the variance between 08 and 12 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          are just as likely the result of sampling or response differences as they are the result of any observable movement.

          29, Hispanic, Current home: MO-05; Born: CA-13; Raised: CA-5; Political Work: KS-03, KS-02; Other work: TX-16

          by killacity on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:28:22 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's my point. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            killacity, MichaelNY, wadingo

            I don't think there's much behind these numbers besides variance. That, or maybe Indies going back to the regular parties.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:33:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I would trust exit polls (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, wadingo, tommypaine

          More than any Gallup poll.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:44:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gallup is excrement till proven otherwise (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            And Gallup is week old excrement in the Latino west.

            /notice garbage poll then move on

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:46:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's ridiculous. They were off in 2012 but (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, jncca

              it was in a consistent and predictable manner due to their likely voter model overestimating how white the electorate would be. A Gallup registered voter poll isn't garbage. Sure take it with a grain of salt if you like, but they're not Rasmussen.

              •  That's bizarrely naive (0+ / 0-)

                C'mon, bad methodology/judgment in one thing is a red flag in all things.

                The kid down the street who puts his tongue on a frozen lamppost is not the person to follow as he jumps off the cliff into the quarry.

                All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:08:51 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  ... (0+ / 0-)

                  No, it isn't naive. What you're arguing is bizarrely unscientific and unaware of basic terms like accuracy and precision.

                  24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:12:52 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  You demonstrated previously you don't (0+ / 0-)

                    know what those words mean, so you probably should avoid them.

                    Still, it is funny to imagine that some people who got wretched food in a restaurant when ordering the enchiladas will go in the same restaurant and naively order the burritos.

                    Bad in one thing does not necessarily mean bad in another thing, but it's very naïve to assume that bad in one thing does not relate at all to other things.

                    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                    by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:21:52 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  ... previously demonstrated? (3+ / 0-)

                      I'm pretty sure I previously demonstrated exactly what those things mean...

                      Accuracy: close to the truth.
                      Precision: close to - under unchanging conditions - what you said every other time.

                      Gallup may not be the most accurate, but Gallup damn well has precision. Given we now know the truth we can also, at least going forward, be able to assume that they're about as far away from the truth in the same direction away from that truth as they used to be, because they have always had fairly good precision.

                      Check yourself before you wreck yourself.

                      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:24:49 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  First, you should start here: (0+ / 0-)

                        https://en.wikipedia.org/...

                        Then read "because they have always had fairly good precision"

                        Then look up
                        http://www.thefreedictionary.com/...
                        Then ask yourself how you came to conclude "always".

                        Then consider why you think a pollster that averages two points more Republican is more reliable than a pollster that averages the correct result.

                        All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                        by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:33:16 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  First... (0+ / 0-)

                          You should start at the exact link you sent me and then re-read my comment, where I basically gave you the same definitions.

                          Then, you need to go back through my comments and note that I never once said that Gallup was more reliable than other pollsters. I simply backed up Stephen when he said that they aren't total garbage... because, well, they aren't total garbage.

                          Then, I'll ask you to note that a pollster who is consistently about two points more Republican than the truth is, well, what would be considered precise by the very link that you tried to squash me with (and failed).

                          Then, I'll ask that you realize that just because someone might be a bit off (2 points isn't that far off, I might add, and is well within MoE generally) doesn't impugn the rest of their work. That's a pretty high bar that you're setting to judge quality from... a bar that most pollsters would never pass.

                          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:45:21 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The word you are looking for is "consistent" (0+ / 0-)

                            I can't and don't want to go on this endlessly, but the point I made yesterday was:

                            A pollster missing +2D in ten races and +2R in ten other races, is falling in the margin of error, and is averaging the correct result overall in the 20 races.  

                            A pollster that misses +2R all the time has a partisan house effect, and they have an average that is 2% off the correct result.

                            The first pollster is more reliable and their polling average is more accurate.  The second pollster is more consistent, and more precisely wrong.

                            If both pollsters poll a race 10 times, the average of the first pollster will be right on the money, and the average of the second pollster will average to be +2R.  If you know the house effect of the second pollster, both pollsters will give you the exact same information, but there is certainly no advantage to that.

                            The first pollster, with its average result being the exact correct result, would be a reliable pollster.  The second pollster always being +2R would be consistently wrong in its average, and consistently have a house effect, and thus could never be considered "more reliable" than the first pollster even if they are more consistent.

                            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                            by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 03:03:18 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yet again... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Setsuna Mudo
                            The first pollster, with its average result being the exact correct result, would be a reliable pollster.  The second pollster always being +2R would be consistently wrong in its average, and consistently have a house effect, and thus could never be considered "more reliable" than the first pollster even if they are more consistent.
                            I never said that the second pollster would be more reliable. I don't know where you're getting that from. What I said was that having a +2R effect consistently (meaning +2R precision, which is the language you yourself use after debating me on this point to the contrary... for some reason... implicit acknowledgement that I'm correct? at least that's how I'm gonna take it) doesn't make the pollster itself worthless. Certainly it isn't worth as much as the best pollster. Nobody would ever argue that point. Honestly, I'd rank the various combination thusly:

                            1. accuracy and precision (a pollster who hits the true mark within MoE in every poll)
                            2. accuracy but not precision (i.e. fluctuating around the true point, but not hitting it consistently)
                            3. precision but not accuracy (something like Gallup, where they consistently pull results slightly to the right of the "true" point)
                            4. neither accuracy nor precision (a pollster who misses the truth by wide amounts in no consistent pattern with respect to partisanship).

                            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 04:54:00 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  In retrospect I should not have said excrement (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                That was basically using an imprecise word that overstates things.

                The point though is Gallup should be viewed with skepticism because their recent history involves very poor methodology choices.  They might be right here.  They might not.  They should have to prove themselves before they are trusted again though.

                All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:46:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I will note that this: (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY
                They were off in 2012 but
                it was in a consistent and predictable manner due to their likely voter model overestimating how white the electorate would be.
                ... basically translates to "precise, but not accurate".

                24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:48:26 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Florida (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, MichaelNY, wadingo, jncca, JacobNC, JBraden

        has all those counties though where people stay Dems based on tradition even though the county went big for Romney.  I'm talking about counties like Jackson (twice as many Dems as GOP, but Romney won 64%) and Calhoun (more than three times as many Dems as GOP, but Romney won 71%).  That's based on party registration but I'm sure at least some of those people still self-identify as Dems even if the only Dem they've voted for in recent memory is maybe Nelson.  

  •  Louisville Mayor Greg Fischer uncontested: (7+ / 0-)

    http://elections.jeffersoncountyclerk.org/...
    A Democrat, he won with 51% in 2010.  BTW, Louisville has a consolidated city-county government.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:35:25 AM PST

  •  Rep. Grimm reportedly apologized... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14, wadingo, Taget

    To reporter Mike Scotto in a private phone call. His office has not yet retracted his public statement blaming Scotto for the incident. Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:36:17 AM PST

  •  Ah, Grimm (5+ / 0-)

    he just had to walk away like it looked like he was doing and people wouldn't care a fly.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:36:39 AM PST

    •  The fact that he tried to blame it on the (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus, MichaelNY, wadingo

      reporter is astounding. It's ridiculous he hasn't made a public apology; such angry bullying behavior is not acceptable. And I don't know in what way an ongoing federal investigation related to you is a "disrespectful and cheap shot".

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:41:57 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-19 special - Mack out (4+ / 0-)

    Isn't a centrist just someone who doesn't have the balls to be a fanatic? -- Stephen Colbert

    by Muboshgu on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:37:58 AM PST

  •  So say all of us (0+ / 0-)

    "I expect a certain level of professionalism and respect."

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:41:34 AM PST

  •  NY-11: He wouldn't have rolled up on me like that (4+ / 0-)

    I'd have gone zero to ghetto in less than 60 seconds, I don't care if he is a member of congress, I would have cussed him out.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:46:44 AM PST

  •  GA-Gov: Atlanta Snowmaggedon (16+ / 0-)

    My Facebook exploded last night in seething anger at Mayor Reed and Gov Deal for their handling of the snowstorm.

    If you haven't heard, people were stuck in traffic for 12 hours, spent the night in CVS, Home Depots and gas station, and kids slept on school buses and in classrooms.

    People are LIVID with the two. I'd love to see a post-storm poll, I'm sure Jason Carter is smiling at his political good fortune. Remember, Deal also has ethics problems and not won 53% of the vote in 2010...

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:49:41 AM PST

    •  Is Reed in trouble? (6+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, jj32, sulthernao, MichaelNY, wadingo, askew

      I figure that it's more trouble for Deal's party than it is for Reed's party, since we're likely to hold the mayorship even if Reed isn't the mayor.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:56:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It seems like Deal is getting hell from reporters (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Jacob1145

        right now during this press conference. I wonder if there will be political consequences to what seems to be his mismanagement of the situation

      •  Quite so (15+ / 0-)

        But it's certainly bad for Reed personally as he has ambitions to run statewide—which is why he's dragged his feet on endorsing Carter.

        More immediately, though, this is really bad for Deal. It makes those fucking whiners on the Upper East Side look like, well, the fucking whiners they are for complaining about de Blasio's response to the snowfall the other week. I can scarcely imagine being stuck in a car that long. The horror stories that emerge will be nightmarish.

        (Note: I am an Upper East Sider and I was pissed at those whiners, and even more disappointed at BdB caving.)

        Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

        by David Nir on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:02:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Does BDB have a long way to go before (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          fouling things up as badly as Bloomberg did that one year? I remember a guy I work with saying that as bad as things seemed out here,  he and his boyfriend both said it was just insane in the city.

          Not to get too far off track here, but while I don't know much about the logistics of this stuff, I have to wonder if Deal really had any idea of what he should have done. Is snowfall that common there? Maybe there's a standard procedure for all sorts of bad weather and he just screwed up when he might easily not have done so, but I am slightly more open-minded with Deal than I'd be with Bloomberg.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:13:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  God (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, wadingo, geoneb

            The two storms weren't even remotely close. The Christmas 2010 storm you are referring to was monster, and Bloombo was, rather notoriously, in Bermuda, leaving basically no one in charge.

            I'm convinced that if that storm had taken place just over a year earlier, it would have been enough for Bloomberg to lose re-election.

            Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

            by David Nir on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:08:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hey, I live in NY, so I remember. (0+ / 0-)

              You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

              by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:29:33 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I wasn't here (0+ / 0-)

                and friends of mine who support De Blasio think that there was a screwup, in that E. 79 St., a major thoroughfare, wasn't plowed very quickly, and a side street on the Upper East Side where there is a school was not plowed in advance of classes that weren't cancelled being run.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:43:22 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Screw up, sure? (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, sulthernao, James Allen, askew

                  Nobody's perfect. But the claim was this was some sort of payback for not supporting him seemed silly. Still, maybe next time, he can take a page from the Linc Chafee/Cory Booker playbook and start shoveling himself.

                  You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

                  by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:48:39 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No, I'd never think that (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    James Allen

                    But provision of basic services, including snow removal, is a fundamental basis for judging a mayor. Mayor Beame lost reelection in great part because of the debacle of an 18-inch snowstorm in 1978, if I remember the year correctly. De Blasio is lucky this happened so early in his term that he has a chance to recover from it.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:58:42 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, wadingo, Stephen Schmitz

          I think Reed's problem is he is a little more combative in answering the questions. Deal is being a little more humble, saying he expects blame will come his way.

        •  Much the same thing (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sulthernao, MichaelNY, wadingo

          happened in the DC area three years ago (January 26, 2011) in what was labeled "Commutaggedon", in which a major storm struck right during the afternoon commute and trapped many, some all night.  (Myself, I was on a bus that took three hours to make a trip that usually lasts 30 minutes or so; at least I had a good long book.)

          There wasn't any major backlash against politicians, though; if anyone suffered in esteem it was OPM, which was criticized for not doing anything until the storm was essentially there and only then letting federal workers out early, thus throwing a lot of extra road and transit traffic out at once.  Since then, they've been more proactive in closings and delays, including a couple for storms that didn't pan out as predicted, which have given me a couple of retrospectively not very well justified days off.  (I don't work for the feds, but my company's local office follows OPM on weather related closings, delays, and early dismissals.)  That said, last Tuesday there was a closing for snow that was totally legit.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:00:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Same Thing Happened in Seattle in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen

            And the mayor, Greg Nickels, lost re-election in part because of it.

            Though of course it really wasn't anyone's fault since Seattle has that type of snow maybe once a decade, has a lot of hills (imagine if it snowed in San Francisco) and, at the time, the state was hesitant to use a lot of salt, since it apparently hurts salmon, which is a big part of WA's economy.

            The snowstorm was famous for this image of a bus dangling over an embankment onto I-5:

            http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

            Seattle is known for sliding cars. Check out the sliding bus at 3:30:

            http://www.youtube.com/...

            But on the fun side, people sliding down streets on everything from rubber bins to trash cans!

            http://www.youtube.com/...

            •  In Berlin, they use gravel (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              because of environmental concerns related to salting. I'd never hold them up as a good example of snow-removal, though, because I experienced the worst ice of my life there last Monday, and nearly slipped and fell hard. A friend of a friend had a compound fracture of her elbow from slipping on the sidewalk there.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:07:12 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  In Berlin (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I was on vacation last year and the day I left (March 19, late in the season for this) there was a solid snowfall.  By the time I got to Tegel Airport I had to sit on the plane for about three hours between boarding and takeoff while they cleared and de-iced the runway.

                Speaking of Berlin airports, when is this brand-spanking-new Brandenburg airport supposed to open?  It's been delayed for at least three years now.  Where's that German efficiency?

                38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:24:15 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The Berlin Airport is a massive scandal (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Way overbudget, shoddy construction... they have no idea when it's going to actually open, and recently shot down reports it might open this year.

                  Essentially, even though the terminal is complete, none of the systems work, the wiring is completely shot, and the airport is arguably too small, only matching the current capacity of Tegel and Schönefeld. They've been spending millions of Euros a day lighting the entire facility all day because the computer systems are unable to shut off the lights. Many in the press have seriously talked about tearing it down and rebuilding from scratch.

                  It's actually a massive scandal there.

        •  I was out of the country then (0+ / 0-)

          How did De Blasio "cave"?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:19:56 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I live in the Atlanta area and (8+ / 0-)

      they both deserve the criticism they are getting. The response was ridiculous.The area got about 2-3 inches of snow, which is a decent amount for the Metro area. But it's obviously not a massive amount of snow, and some preparation, some salting and sanding of the highways in the morning, and I think things would have been okay.  

      I think Deal probably deserves more criticism, since Metro Atlanta is several counties, and it's up to the state to coordinate the DOT response.

      I think Reed is getting a little more criticism now, just because he is a bit combative and thin skinned in answering some of the questions.

      •  2-3 inches?! (6+ / 0-)

        Even for the south it's just completely ridiculous that amount would result in this much of a disaster.

        •  . (21+ / 0-)
        •  It's not ridiculous, it makes sense (6+ / 0-)

          The issue is urban traffic.  I don't know what Atlanta traffic normally is, but any urban area is going to have major congestion problems that bottle up everything even with modest snow.  Put that kind of snow into an area that isn't accustomed to it, and lack of preparation is a given, since "preparation" for weather always is for what's normal, not the freak situation like this one.  Metro Atlanta isn't used to this and can't justify investing money and other resources into equipment for something so uncommon.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:16:39 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Traffic in Atlanta is dreadful (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bythesea

            Yet I don't know why.  Sure everyone drives since MARTA isn't great, but lots of people drive in/around Philly too and it doesn't seem as bad.

            The main confusion I have with Atlanta compared to Philly is that Philly's roads are small (Schuykill 2 lanes and I-95 3 lanes) but in Atlanta some of the roads are like 8 lanes wide...I find the traffic baffling.  If Philly added one more lane to the Schuykill, the Turnpike or I-95 there would be almost no traffic...yet Atlanta has huge roads that are always jammed.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:22:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Adding Lanes = More Traffic Not Less (5+ / 0-)

              The more lanes you add the more people drive. It's a fact of urban planning.

              Look at Houston which I think has the largest freeways -- part of 610 is a 12 lane highway (6 in each direction). It still has horrible traffic problems.

              Building more freeways is not a solution to congestion. Instead it only adds to suburban sprawl.

              •  Doesn't Atlanta have a section of highway (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                PassionateJus, MichaelNY

                that is 8 or 9 lanes each direction?

                Also, Houston has a highway that is - I believe - 7 lanes each way no including the managed lanes.

                24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:28:37 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Perhaps in growing areas (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                In a place like Philly, there just isn't much more sprawl to be had. Everyone moved 25 miles northwest about 20 years ago.

                The Atlanta/Houston/Phoenix's of the world, I might be inclined to agree.

                I'm just trying to figure out where the hell everyone in Atlanta is going at all hours of the day.  It's not a top 5 city and even if you count all of their sprawl it still would work out to less congestion.  I think a major problem must be their merging lanes are too short or that their exits are too short...that would kill things even if they had 15 lanes.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:32:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, huge difference between Houston (0+ / 0-)

                  and built up cities like Philly or even Los Angeles.  A couple lanes in Orange County saved a near infinite amount of hours from the lives of the people with zero population impact.  A bit more people will drive due to the better conditions, but without population growth having more lanes is a pure win.

                  All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

                  by tommypaine on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:53:52 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  I originally from the South in an urban area (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            redrelic17

            for years and can't agree that "it makes sense" at all.  Not on this level.

          •  That's why I am tempted to give these guys (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DCCyclone

            a little more leeway than Bloomberg.

            You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

            by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:42:23 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Traffic in Atlanta. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew, bythesea, MichaelNY

            It's a satan sandwich. Top 5 worst in the country.

            Metro Atlanta should invest in some equipment, because snow happens once every year or two. How much money does the city lose when it shuts down for two days? I'm sure it's more money than some snow plows.

            When I was there in 2011, 4 inches of snow shut down the city for 3 or 4 days. I think that's unacceptable.

            http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

            by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:45:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is that they probably don't have (6+ / 0-)

        much of the equipment or supplies needed to salt, sand, or plow the roads since they rarely ever get snow. The people that live there also aren't used to driving in the snow. In a northern city, they would have been prepared and no one would have cared.

        23, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

        by JonathanMN on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:52:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  That would be my guess (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, PassionateJus, MichaelNY

          It's not a good use of money to have equipment that prepares them for that much snow when that much snow happens only once in a blue moon.

          45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:14:37 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  yeah this happened a few times here last decade (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          or so, and it seems like the city of Portland decided to invest. I've seen salt around a couple times and one of the times that we were supposed to get snow (we haven't really so far this year) I saw a plow pre-emptively parked across the street from my apartment the night before. They decided to spend the money even though they don't have much need.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:15:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, it doesnt snow often (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          But we had a similar situation happen a few years ago. There was an ice storm that shutdown the city for days.

          We get freezing weather every year and the northern part of the state does get snow more frequently than the city. So I think there should have been some preparation.

  •  Texas HD50 by the numbers (5+ / 0-)

    (Posted in the open thread last night)

    Last night:
    Rep-Elect Israel wins with 59.42% of the vote at 10.7% turnout

    2012, Obama lead all statewide Dems with 57.75% at 63.73% turnout
    2010 Bill White lead the statewide Dems with 55.86% at 37.75% turnout. Radnosky was the only statewide Democratic candidate over the last 7 years to lose the district while running for attorney general agaisnt Abbott: 45.77% - 50.39%

    2008 Obama leads again with 60.27% at 64.74% turnout.

    These are near 2008 enthusiasm levels. Battleground is getting the job done in Texas. Of note, Israel is openly LGBT and it appears to have played no harm to her election, always a good sign the times are a changing.

    SSP alumni, 29, Male, Democrat, TX-14 Elections Blogger for Burnt Orange Report. Collection of Texas elections diaries can be found here

    by trowaman on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:51:38 AM PST

    •  You and wmmiv were saying this about BGTX last (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      night. It's good to hear.

      Is there anything new you can tell us? I think wmmiv said that if they could get levels like this in targeted areas around the state, David would hit 48 percent. What might get her over the hump, if anything?

      Also, if you can say, how are they planing to use what they accomplish now further down the line? Maybe it's just not that detailed, but I figure part of this process is building up registries that were lacking or simply non-existent before. Is there a proprietary element to this, or is more communal?

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:00:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The past tense of lead (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh, James Allen

      is 'led.'

      Sorry, that's obnoxious of me, but I just hate to see a perfectly unambiguous distinction in english spelling become ambiguous, as it's been doing in the last few years. (Right up there with people using 'i.e.' for 'e.g.' among things that people get wrong more often than they get right.) I guess it's on the read/read model...

      But it's a shame.

      A damned shame.

  •  special "election" here today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Clackamas and Multnomah County commissioners will vote to choose my new state rep!

    It's down to Lake Oswego attorney Sonia Fischer, former Clackamas County Commissioner Ann Lininger, and Multnomah neighborhood activist and I think school board member Moses Ross, a political consultant. All Dems as required by law as my rep who vacated the seat was a Dem, and the district is D+15 so no worries about whether the appointed person is a good campaigner.

    Clackamas County gets a slightly larger share of the vote, and I think Lininger is favored, but wouldn't be surprised if some of the Republicans on the Clackamas County Commission tried to cause trouble.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:04:15 AM PST

  •  PPP GOP 2016. Uncle Sugar on top (15+ / 0-)

    Mike Huckabee leads our new national GOP poll- 16% to 14% Bush, 13% Christie, 11% Paul, 8% Cruz/Rubio/Ryan:

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:13:35 AM PST

    •  Christie at 31/46 fave overall: (7+ / 0-)

      https://twitter.com/...

      Decline across all groups.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:20:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow, none even breaching ~20% (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, wadingo, itskevin, Jacob1145

      I wonder who the next "Republican savior" will be (before they inevitably crash & burn, of course).

      MN-01, long time lurker

      by Jervill on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:09:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Still don't think (7+ / 0-)

      we can really call this a lead.  16-14-13-11-8-8-8 could easily shift from week to week.  Apparently Huckabee just opened his mouth recently and that's why he has "taken the lead".  As soon as one candidate is ahead by 20 or so points then we can start calling them the frontrunner (and even that can quickly change).

      In short: the GOP field is wide open.

      •  This justifies what I say about Jeb Bush (6+ / 0-)

        I've always felt if Jeb runs, he becomes the nominee, and at some point leading up to Iowa likely becomes the frontrunner.

        One piece of pushback people like to give me is that Jeb doesn't poll well.  To which I respond, polling now is meaningless.  And I think this poll proves the point.  Huckabee will never be the nominee if he runs, and for now Jeb comes in second.  Jeb's standing in this poll is just as meaningless as any other, but it makes the point that if you're going to cite polling, you have to surrender when the polling shifts dramatically.  My whole point is that early polling shifts very dramatically on a dime.  And in 2011-12 we saw that even late polling shifts dramatically, and even then it was meaningless.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:20:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's true (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, BoswellSupporter, MichaelNY

          that the GOP never seems to be able to resist a Bush on a national ticket. But I have real questions about his readiness to run in a Republican environment that's changed a wee bit since the last time he ran for office (that would be back in 2002). He's gotten in some trouble with the base on immigration already, he could well wind up like Tommy Thompson, formidable on paper but rusty in practice.

          But I don't think he'll run. Bushes don't take losing well, and regardless of his strengths he would not be able to clear the field. Would not be shocked if he didn't bother trying and passed the mantle to his son.

        •  I wholeheartedly agree with that (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, JBraden, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          and if Bush's last name were Walker I think he'd be by far their strongest candidate, but thankfully for us it isn't. I don't buy that any of their senators have any decent shot at the nomination. They're all either too conservative like Paul/Cruz or dragged down by a hated congressional caucus. At this stage I'd say their strongest plausible candidates are Jeb Bush and their midwestern governors like John Kasich (even if he does come across as boring). I'm highly skeptical Susana Martinez can win a nomination should she run given how small and poor her state is and how few conservative accomplishments she has. Brian Sandoval would be a very good general election candidate, but there's zero chance of him winning the nomination being pro-choice and not really conservative enough for primary voters.

          Jeb Bush and particularly Scott Walker satisfy every major element of the GOP base, big money, and insider elites and seem like much more likely nominees than Mike Huckabe...

        •  Not meaningless (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Just not predictive.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:23:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  So many of them are within the margin (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, MichaelNY, bythesea

        of error for the lead, and not even just inside the 95% confidence interval but well inside of it. Combine that with how primary elections can and do swing rapidly, calling whoever comes out on top in the poll with those numbers is absurd.

        I think other factors indicate a strong contender for the nomination this far out, such as fundraising potential or insider support, but absolutely not polling unless we're looking at personal favs and even then...

  •  Former NV Lt. Gov. Sue Wagner Quits GOP (21+ / 0-)

    Via Political Wire, we see this from rgj.com:

    “I did it as a symbol, I guess, that I do not like the Republican Party and what they stand for today,” Wagner said. “I’ve been a Republican all my life. My dad was active (in the GOP) in the state of Maine where I was born. It was more of a moderate, liberal Republican Party.”

    “It’s grown so conservative and tea-party orientated and I just can’t buy into that,” Wagner said. “I’ve left the Republican Party and it’s left me, at the same time.”

    You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

    by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:43:00 AM PST

  •  Christie's mayoral endorsement obssession: (12+ / 0-)

    During the 2013 election, his office designed a list of 100 towns they ought to win to prove bipartisan credentials.  They included dossiers of the mayors as well and whether or not they were supportive.
    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    This article paints how Christie ran a tight ship and there's no way he at least didn't know about the closures until recently.  Just like with Nixon, it takes a spark to explode a powderkeg and get scrutiny for years of corruption, retribution politics, and even unethical behavior.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:45:36 AM PST

    •  I met with my Dems club last night (10+ / 0-)

      and boy were they going "I told you so."  I also shared with them my diary on 2013 NJ elections and they applauded my impressively exhaustive work.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 09:48:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I want these Dem Mayors called on carpet (5+ / 0-)

      by constituents for selling out and demanding to know what they got for it and what else they've sold out for.  

      Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:38:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  There's a brief reference (6+ / 0-)

      in that article to the special senate election, which got me thinking a little more about it.

      “We’re playing 3-D chess while they’re playing checkers,” one adviser boasted last year after Mr. Christie called a special election to fill a United States Senate seat rather than have Cory A. Booker, a popular Democrat, be on the November ballot.
      Given what we now know about Christie's obsession with not only winning reelection but winning big, (including in some Democratic towns), his decision to schedule a special election just a few weeks before the general makes perfect sense. He was going for broke and didn't want anything to get in his way, no matter how much it cost the taxpayers. To him, that election was an audition for the presidency.

      There something about all this that suggests, I don't know, deep insecurity? I mean, he would have won by double digits even with Booker on the ballot. But that wasn't enough for him. How can that not be enough? Rhetorical question really, just thinking as I type. The risk to him was so low, and yet a bigger general electorate didn't fit in to the plotline he and his advisors were trying to construct, so he couldn't face it.

      •  And he didn't even break a modern record (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        Tom Kean, Sr. got 69% in 1985 and Jim Florio got 61.2% (almost 1% more than Christie) in 1989.  And Florio got that back when NJ was considered a swing state.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:18:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  So the whole (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingTag, KingofSpades

      "I couldn't pick Mayor Sokolich out of a lineup" thing was complete BS? Not that we didn't know that already.

      25, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 03:31:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-6 (11+ / 0-)

    Nancy Pelosi is holding a fundraiser in Philadelphia next week for businessman Michael Parrish (also for Kevin Strouse of PA-8 and Aimee Belgard of NJ-3), so it looks like establishment support is definitely coalescing around Parrish as the candidate for Gerlach's open seat.  

  •  More on OR marriage equality (9+ / 0-)
    A group of high-profile Oregon Republicans has formed a Freedom Oregon, a political action committee that will support same-sex marriage.

    The group includes former U.S. Sen Bob Packwood; former Oregon Attorney General Dave Frohnmayer; former Oregon Secretary of State Norma Paulus and Stimson Lumber CEO Andrew Miller, who individually and through his company has been the biggest political contributor to Oregon Republican candidates and causes in recent years.

    link

    If they can get Paulus, Packwood, and Frohnmayer to actually campaign for this then it might not end up being that close.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 10:52:52 AM PST

  •  Is the Georgia gov. race considered competitive? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sulthernao, pademocrat, MichaelNY

    And I'd think the mayor would get more criticism than the governor for something like snow removal/traffic control.

    •  The highways are the real problem (6+ / 0-)

      That's a state responsibility so I think the governor/state should get more blame. Not sure if they will.  

    •  Probably true. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden, MichaelNY

      I can't say Kasim Reed doesn't deserve it. I think he's a self-promoter first and a responsible mayor of Atlanta second. His flirtation with Governor Deal is just further evidence that he thinks he can prepare for a statewide race by running to the right without consequences.

      House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams is a much more responsible politician. When she worked with Governor Deal, she got something out if it (the imperfect preservation of state-funded university scholarships). She's also solidly behind candidate Carter. I think Abrams is a much better statewide candidate. She's only 40, so there's plenty of time.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:31:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ Sen: Murray Sabrin considering another run (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, gabjoh

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:33:54 AM PST

    •  He might be a person (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      My business teacher in high school was a huge fan of his; I think they may have taught a class or two together. Sadly for Mr. Sabrin, my teacher's moved to Florida, so that's probably a pretty big chunk of his voters gone right there.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 - ! | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 08:27:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Alright, another wacky roll call to dissect (9+ / 0-)

    So the Farm Bill passed the House 251-166, but both caucuses broke pretty heavily.  Republicans backed it 162-63, while Democrats opposed it 89-103.  14 reps missed it (and somehow Stockman wasn't one of them!)

    Unlike the NSA vote though, this one doesn't have the clear correlation of tea-flavored/anti-establishment Republicans joining with the Progressive Caucus.  It's a lot more mixed.  Amash voted no, Massie voted yes.  Stockman voted no, Yoho voted yes.  LoBiondo voted no, Runyan voted yes.  Chabot voted no, Stivers voted yes...it goes on.

    As for Democrats, there's also no clear correlation there.  Matheson voted no, McIntyre voted yes.  Van Hollen voted no, Hoyer voted yes.  Polis voted no, Perlmutter voted yes.  Swalwell voted no, Huffman voted yes.

    Anyone else able to make more sense of this?  The only obvious correlation I can find is that everyone in Iowa voted for it.

  •  PPP GA Sen, KY Sen: (18+ / 0-)

    http://politics.blog.ajc.com/...

    The full results of the poll commissioned by liberal group Americans United for Change are here and put Nunn in the lead, but around the 3.9 percent margin for error. She leads Rep. Paul Broun, 42-41, Rep. Phil Gingrey, 45-41, former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 44-40, and Rep. Jack Kingston, 44-42.
    PPP, a Democratic-leaning outfit based in North Carolina, also polled Kentucky in the same survey, finding Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with a 45-44 lead over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes.

    Vote Democratic. We're not perfect-but they're NUTS! - Barney Frank

    by Minnesota Mike on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:42:33 AM PST

    •  Paul Broun fares the best? (5+ / 0-)

      Oh Georgia.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:50:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm feeling good about KY-Sen. (5+ / 0-)

      Grimes seems to get how this game is played, she won't suffer from a lack of funds, and her state party is probably one of the best in the country. It's still early, so this kind of cuts both ways, but McConnell can't seem to get a solid lead ahead of her. If this continues well into the summer, and she's as strong of a closer as she's known to be, I won't be at all surprised if she wins.

      I'm less confident about GA-Sen. Nunn appears to be doing fine, right now at least, but I am not sure if the party infrastructure can be working for her in time. There's also the potential runoff. Maybe once we get a clearer sense of who the Republican nominee is, we'll see this race become more traditional, but as that true clown car primary continues, she can forge ahead. Good for her and for us.

      I'd like to see some good news in regards to MT and WV. The eternal optimist in me isn't ready to write off SD just yet, but if we have to, I think being competitive in KY and GA is a fair trade off.

      You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

      by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:54:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  "If she's as strong a closer as she's known to be" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        she's won one primary that sure, was close, but her general wasn't terribly competitive. She doesn't have a long history of winning races. She's been elected once. I don't think she's known to be much of anything yet.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 11:59:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Politically, no, but I was (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          basing that statement on her reputation as a law student and lawyer and how carefully she supposedly plans everything. Make of that what you will.

          You're a Constitutional conservative. I'm a Constitutional conservative. Who isn't a Constitutional conservative? We are all proud Constitutional conservatives. Ted Cruz in 2016!

          by bjssp on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:08:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  A few things to note (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, sacman701, JBraden, MichaelNY

      both parties have a base over 40% in Georgia thanks to racial polarization and with relatively modest name rec the head to heads are worthless and tell us nothing when our greatest asset is the ability to drive down GOP favorables later on. Favorability ratings and a Republican primary match up are the only things that really matter in polling right now. Getting from 45% to 50%+1 is very difficult in Georgia and if we don't win in round one there's little chance we win round two when dropoff is typically worth several points of vote share.

      In Kentucky though McConnell has a horrible 37/51 approval rating and the state is so much more elastic. Being at just a 44-45 deficit against a universally known incumbent who hasn't been subject to really any heavy Dem attack ads yet is solid.

      •  still its nicer to see Nunn at 44-45% (7+ / 0-)

        generally rather than 40% where she was last time.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:06:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, but be careful about KY-SEN (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, DCCyclone, lordpet8

        A lot of McConnell's low approval rating is due to Republicans and conservative Dems who generally vote Republican not liking him. There's a good change those voters come home after the primary.

        Also, Stephen, while your analysis is usually spot on, you lost me with this sentence

        Being at just a 44-45 deficit against a universally known incumbent who hasn't been subject to really any heavy Dem attack ads yet is solid.
        If McConnell's a universally known incumbent, how are Democratic attacks going to make that much of a difference? Don't attack ads usually work better when an candidate is undefined (as say, Grimes is right now).

        Overall, I think the Georgia numbers were much more favorable than the Kentucky numbers. I'm glad to see Nunn inching up.

        •  Yes but ads can still drive down approval (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          if soft partisans are susceptible to being swayed by attacks on said candidate's record. The minimum wage polling for example gives the typical supermajority in favor of an increase and a huge gap between "more likely/less likely to vote for" based on candidates' positions.

          I'm not saying we can drive McConnell's numbers down a lot further, just that attack ads do have some impact and he's been subject to practically none from the left. Anyway, Grimes is at 12% of Republicans at only losing indies by 11% while undecideds are basically the same across party ID. That doesn't suggest a huge chunk of conservatives are undecided and will come home to McConnell in this poll, though that sort of movement isn't impossible eventually.

          •  I'm skeptical (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They would do that much to McConnell. I think they would be more likely to drive down Grimes numbers given that she's more on an unknown, especially among the conservative voters who are currently supporting her. Even the minimum wage will likely only influence those who were inclined to vote for Grimes anyway.

            For what it's worth, I'm very skeptical of both Grimes and Nunn's chances, but I do think the latter has a better chance based on a potentially bad Republican nominee (I actually see Nunn as the favorite if Broun is the nominee). In contrast, I still haven't seen any polls that make me think Grimes should be favored at this point. The one thing that would be a game changer is a Bevin win. And I don't see that as impossible fwiw, although I think it's unlikely.

        •  Standard argument re McConnell approval (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          But it doesn't really reflect in the numbers.

          50-24 with Republicans, 33-54 with independents and 22-60 with Democrats.

          Now, you can argue there are more Republicans not sure and they will clearly coalesce after the primary but there aren't enough of them to completely the swing the race.

          I think both polls are excellent though it will take an improving environment to actually win either.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 01:33:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think your last sentence says it all (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen, JGibson

            That's really it, the national environment has to get better for us.

            Which can happen.  Get official unemployment down into the low-to-mid-6s and the U6 into the mid-12s by late summer, and health care implementation goes smoother so public anxiety fades.  Those two things probably are enough.  But unemployment and job growth are uncontrollable wildcards.

            45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:59:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think it's very hard to bet against McConnell (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, James Allen

              He's a Republican leader with funding up the wazoo running in a state that has a heavy Republican lean in Federal elections. This election may be close to the tossup that polls say it is, but he will be very tough to beat.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 07:56:50 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Nunn is leading. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Avenginggecko

        How do we know that the undecideds are conservative? There are Democrats and Republicans who will say there are undecided if they don't know the candidate well, but are nearly certain to vote their party once election day arrives. What if the undecideds are mostly party-line Democrats not yet paying attention? We just don't know who they are.

        I just don't buy this theory that going from 45% to 50%+1 is qualitatively different from going from 40% to 45%, particularly when said candidate is actually leading. What if Nunn already has sufficient center-right support to narrowly defeat her Republican opponent? There's that possibility too.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:41:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pretty good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      What's the PPP trendline on KY-Sen?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:10:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP crosstabs out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://t.co/...

    Big margins of error, Nunn's bigger leads are outside it but Republicans are less united and will come home.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 12:26:16 PM PST

  •  IU Democrats Callout (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, gabjoh, CF of Aus

    We held our callout meeting last night, which had pretty good turnout. We had the following guest speakers last night:

    Bill Bailey, who is running for Congress in Indiana's 9th District
    Patrick Lockhart, who is running for the Indiana House District 91
    John Zody, Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party
    Mark Fraley, Deputy Chair for Organizing of Monroe County Democratic Party
    I also spoke to the group about our work with HJR-3. Hopefully we'll get more volunteers in the coming week to jam things up in the Senate.
  •  Funny thing about Evesham (0+ / 0-)

    it has a portion of its territory called Marlton that was given so much prominence that I used to think it was a different town entirely (Marlton is even labeled on maps).

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 02:30:41 PM PST

  •  PA-13 -- using my nerd hat only (6+ / 0-)

    (As opposed to my #TeamDaylin hat, or status as a former Hoeffel '04 staffer.)  

    After leaving Congress in 2004, Hoeffel served as Mongtomery County Commissioner from 2008-11, meaning (a) he hasn't been out of office as long as you'd think looking at federal-only, and (b) has represented much more of the district -- the entirety of the Montco half and whatever was in the NE Phila half in 2003-04.  (When he was first elected in 1998, the district was solely in Montco.)

  •  AR-SEN: Tom Cotton was the only rep (13+ / 0-)

    from AR to vote against the farm bill.

    This might be good news for Pryor. It's a five year law, so whoever wins next year, will be in office during the next renewal. Someone posted an article here on how traditionally conservative farm groups grew agitated with the GOP over their handling of the recent farm bill negotiations. Pryor needs to make the point that he supports this bill and will support farmers interests in the next one as well.

  •  CA-11: Rep George Miller endorses DeSaulnier (7+ / 0-)

    to succeed him. '

    link

  •  VA-Sen: Sarvis to run (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.timesdispatch.com/...

    This is great news...for Ed Gillespie!!!

    •  I'd be surprised if he breaks 2% (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, sacman701, James Allen

      The Dems that he got who didn't want to vote McAuliffe are much more likely to vote for Warner and whatever soft partisan GOPers that didn't want to vote for a rabid culture warrior will be more likely support the Republican nominee especially if it's a boring establishment guy like Gillespie (or they may even be Warner voters).  This time around he probably only gets the "both parties are the same so I always vote Indy" types.  

    •  Wild card (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, James Allen, madmojo, gabjoh

      He seemed to take more from McAuliffe in the actual vote than he did in the polling. As if the result was closer than expected because some of his support ended up supporting Cuccinelli. Anyway, probably doesn't matter unless it gets close for some reason. Republicans like to cite George Allen in 2006 but I doubt Warner will get caught saying something that stupid.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 03:54:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, Sarvis took more from Cuccinelli (5+ / 0-)

        It's straightforward, significantly more Sarvis voters voted for Obenshain than for Herring.  That's why McAuliffe won by 2.5%, and Herring went to a recount.

        But Sarvis won't matter in the Senate race.  Mark Warner is wildly popular unlike McAuliffe, and Gillespie is an ideologically uncontroversial Republican unlike Cuccinelli.  Sarvis won't do anything this time.

        45, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:52:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  All I got to say about the PPP GA-Sen poll is (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY, madmojo, bythesea

    HELL YEAH!!!

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 03:45:22 PM PST

  •  Delaware (7+ / 0-)

    How did Democrats end up with such a favorable map? Even when the court is forced to draw a map, the median district usually ends up being significantly to the right of the state as a whole.

    Also, Delaware Republicans are a joke. The party's epitaph is "Here lies Mike Castle."

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 04:37:10 PM PST

  •  NC-10: Larry Kissell pt. 2? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JBraden, MichaelNY, Tayya

    High School social studies teacher Tate MacQueen (D-Asheville) will challenge Patrick McHenry in the 10th.  Good luck to him.

  •  Texas Voter Registration Stats... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 05:20:15 PM PST

    •  it would be interesting to see if TX introduced (0+ / 0-)

      partisan registration like CA or NY has. My guess though is unlike OK, you wouldn't see areas like Throckmorton County be 65% registered dem because there was never any partisan registration to begin with so they instead would register with the party they vote with more.

      Still, I could see it being to CA where the suburban areas were where the most registered Rs live while the rural areas registration is less republican than how it votes in national elections.

  •  Kathleen Rice to run in NY-04 (20+ / 0-)

    She announced in a joint interview with Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, who is retiring. Story here.

    Rice said that if elected, she would continue McCarthy's work to reduce gun violence, and also focus on issues that include immigration reform, targeting human sex trafficking and helping more small businesses succeed.

    "I think my skill set and experience shows that I can address these issues and more, just as Carolyn has done," said Rice, who this month began her third four-year term as district attorney.

    "Carolyn has convinced me that when you get to Washington, you can get involved in as many issues that are relevant to your constituents," Rice added. "You're not pigeonholed by your background and what your past experience is." [...]

    "When you love the job you have, you want to see someone come in and continue the work," McCarthy said Wednesday. "Kathleen is going to take her own path; she'll find what interests she'll go with, but I also know she's passionate about reducing gun violence from her years being the DA."

    Although the article says Rep. Steve Israel isn't ruling out a contested primary, it's hard to see how Rice isn't the next congresswoman from Long Island.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 29, 2014 at 06:50:45 PM PST

  •  MI-14: Brenda Lawrence Enters Races (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, James Allen, jj32, ndrwmls10

    Long-time Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence formally entered the crowed race for Gary Peters House seat in MI-14, today.  She will be a formidable competitor being a popular executive and charasmatic politician.  Her main opponent Rudy Hobbs (who was himself raised in Southfield) countered her entrance into the race by rolling out the fact that he had a whole bunch of sitting Southfield City Council members who've already endorsed him.

    It looks like this race will do if nothing else recenter the district in Southfield and take the power base out of Detroit, with Gary Peters being kind of an abberation.

  •  WAPO/ABC News 2016 poll (9+ / 0-)

    Ryan-18
    Bush-18
    Christie-13
    Cruz-12
    Paul-11
    Rubio-10

    Clinton-73
    Biden-12

    Clinton-53
    Christie-41

    link.

    •  This poll cheers me up. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      2014 may be hard, but 2016 looks, right now at least, to be much easier.

    •  Bush is going to come under increasing pressure (0+ / 0-)

      run.  As Christie implodes.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 03:12:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He could be formidable. (0+ / 0-)

        A Latino-American first family would be a huge selling point for him.   I don't think the Bush name will really hurt him - he'll be more Daddy Bush than dunce brother.  

        If he doesn't run, it will be because of George Prescott Bush, his son, running for Texas Land Commissioner in Texas and the larger plans the Bush Clan has for him.  4 years as Land commissioner, four years as Texas Governor and then Presidential run.  If the feeling is a Jeb run would hurt this Dynastic plan ie the country needs a longer break from the Bush name, he won't run, but if Jeb could really win or in the very least a solid campaign run would help rehab the Bush name (maybe even a defeat being cathartic for people) than he could run.  

        Bush/Portman or Walker/Rubio would be two tickets I'd bet right now.    

        Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

        by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 05:54:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Even the Republican base is sick of the Bushes (0+ / 0-)

          And the Clinton economic legacy versus the Bush economic legacy won't help him at all.

          I doubt he'd pick Portman as VP.  He'd have to pick someone who would appeal to the crazies.

          The Walker ticket makes sense.  But Walker has to win re-election, and then turn around almost immediately and run.  If Bush is in, he'll have a big lead in money and support that Walker would have trouble matching.

          "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

          by Paleo on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 06:01:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Ryan's at 20% (0+ / 0-)

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Thu Jan 30, 2014 at 03:13:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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