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7:54 AM PT: NY-15: Just a few weeks after first floating the possibility of a primary challenge to Democratic Rep. Jose Serrano in the South Bronx, New York City Councilwoman Annabel Palma has decided against running.

8:22 AM PT: FL-13: St. Pete Polls now says the race between Democrat Alex Sink and David Jolly is tied at 46 all (with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 6), an improvement for Sink from Jolly's 46-44 edge two weeks ago and his 47-43 lead in mid-January. But before you say, "Hey! Those are good trendlines for Sink!", you'll want to don your skeptic's propeller beanie. For starters, you already know what a poor track record St. Pete has.

But even if you put the past aside, their numbers have jumped around wildly in just this one race. Last November, St. Pete began with Sink up 21, then 15, then 13, before finding Jolly ahead by 4 last month. That's a huge swing, but even if you're inclined to point out that Jolly's name recognition was naturally going to rise, that still doesn't explain Sink's vote share dropping from 52 to 43 in two months, before Republicans began attacking her in earnest. This race is likely very close, but don't trust St. Pete to tell you so.

8:52 AM PT: LA-06: Republican Garret Graves, who stepped down as Gov. Bobby Jindal's coastal protection advisor recently and had been considering a bid for Congress, has indeed decided to join the field of hopefuls looking to replace Rep. Bill Cassidy, who is running for Senate.

10:45 AM PT: CO-Sen, -04: If you're just catching up on the drama in the Colorado Senate race, here's what you need to know about the Republican field:

Rep. Cory Gardner: Reportedly will join the race but hasn't spoken publicly yet

2010 nominee Ken Buck: Says that he's dropping down to run for Gardner's House seat

State Sen. Amy Stephens: Just confirmed that she's dropping out

State Sen. Owen Hill: Says he's staying in

State Sen. Randy Baumgardner: Also says he's staying in

Hill, who is seriously pissed at Gardner and Buck over their back-room deal, also just received a renewed vote of confidence from the Tea Party Express, a grifty group of consultants who's made bank by hijacking the tea party name but has also already spent $100,000 on ads touting Hill.

Meanwhile, Buck's deal is no longer looking quite so sweet. State Sen. Scott Renfroe confirms he's looking at Gardner's now-open (and safely red) 4th District as well, and several other Republicans are also reportedly considering bids, including state Reps. Tim Dore and Clarice Navarro and Weld County Commissioner Sean Conway. A crowded primary might actually please the GOP establishment, since they've managed to get the deeply flawed Buck out of the Senate race and might even avoid having him in the House, too.

11:07 AM PT: AZ-07: Another veteran House Democrat, Rep. Ed Pastor, has decided to retire at the end of this term. Pastor, 70, had served 11 terms in Congress and had held public office for over half his life, so his decision "to do something else" is not especially surprising. Pastor was not an especially prominent D.C. figure, but his safely blue Phoenix-area seat (it went 72-27 Obama) is likely to attract a lot of attention from fellow Democrats.

Indeed, one candidate is already in. Assistant state House Minority Leader Ruben Gallego, described last year by Roll Call as Pastor's "heir apparent," tweeted "I am in for Congress" shortly after the news of Pastor's retirement broke. But the Great Mentioner team of Emily Cahn and Abby Livingston suggests several other possible names, including Phoenix City Councilwoman Laura Pastor (daughter of Ed) and Councilmen Michael Nowakowski and Daniel Valenzuela; Avondale Mayor Marie Lopez Rogers; and state House Minority Leader Chad Campbell, who declined a bid for governor earlier this cycle.

11:16 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: You may have already seen this cool new widget from Clarity Campaigns that lets you input any first name and, based on voter registration files, tells you what percentage of people with that name are Democrats or Republicans. We've come up with a fun challenge that piggybacks on this: what are the most Democratic and/or Republicans names that you can find?

Knowing a little about how various demographics vote helps you narrow things down pretty quickly: the most Democratic names are going to be ones that are typically African-American (the highest numbers we've found so far are for Shaniqua, at 89.2% Democratic, and, among men, Antoine, at 83.2%. Almost all women's names skew at least slightly Democratic; the most Republican-skewing female name that we've found so far is almost too good to be true: Muffy, at 51.2% Republican.

The most Republican men's name is a tough nut to crack; there's simply less of a diversity of men's names, and most common male names skew only slightly (51-52%) Republican. You need to isolate a name that's kind of WASPy and macho, but also skews old (but not too old, which might give you too many people who came of age during the New Deal). Tops that we've found so far: Kent, at 59.7% Republican.

11:19 AM PT: IL-Gov: State Sen. Bill Brady, the GOP's unsuccessful 2010 nominee, has released a new poll to make the case that he's gaining on the frontrunner in the Republican primary, wealthy venture capitalist Bruce Rauner. The survey, from McKeon & Associates, has Rauner leading Brady 32-24, with state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 13 and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford crashing down to a tragicomic 3 percent.

That's a bit different from We Ask America's newest survey (yep, they have another one), which has Rauner at 36, Dillard at 17, Brady at 13, and Rutherford at 8. Even if Brady is somehow closing the gap (he declined to release trendlines to actually prove it), there's little time for anyone to make up the distance:The primary is March 18, and Rauner keeps spending like wild.

11:35 AM PT: MI-01: Okay, so, remember that super bizarre story a month ago where a local newspaper reporter in Michigan, Garrett Neese, claimed he spoke with Democratic House candidate Jerry Cannon, who allegedly told Neese, "I don't like Obamacare. It's been a disaster for me. I want to go back to the way it was before"? Well, Cannon's campaign immediately denied the candidate ever said such a thing, and Cannon even expressed support for the Affordable Care Act. That left us with a very strange set of potential explanations, but it looks like we now have our answer.

The paper in question, the Mining Gazette of Houghton, Michigan, says they undertook a search of "all phone calls made from the editorial offices" on the day in question and could find no record that Neese ever made any call "to any number associated with the Cannon campaign." Of course, that still leaves further mysteries. Did Neese simply make the whole thing up? Or did he dial the wrong number and somehow get snowed by a prankster?

We may never know, but the moral of the story is that when you hear a quote that sounds too good to be true—as Cannon's surely was—then it probably is.

11:44 AM PT: NY-13: State Sen. Adriano Espaillat officially kicked off his rematch against Rep. Charlie Rangel on Thursday, confirming a decision he'd telegraphed for a long time. Espaillat lost the Democratic primary by just 2.5 percent in 2012, and this time, he may have an even better shot. That's because Harlem pastor Michael Walrond is liable to siphon off a larger portion of the black vote from Rangel than any of the other also-rans did two years ago. Espaillat, meanwhile, is almost certain to have the district's growing Hispanic community solidly behind him once again, which could mean the end of the line for Rangel.

12:24 PM PT: CA-Gov: Believe it or not, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown had, until Thursday, refused to confirm whether he'd seek a fourth term in office, but with just a week to go before the filing deadline, he finally submitted the necessary paperwork for his campaign. Given his age (75) and his occasionally quirky behavior, we'd slotted this contest in as a Race to Watch in case of an unlikely retirement. But with that possibility now off the table, we're moving CA-Gov to Safe Democrat.

1:11 PM PT: FL-13: Meanwhile, the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club are jumping in with a $350,000 ad buy, hammering Jolly on climate change. The spot is very unusual, enough so that I'm reproducing the full transcript here, in case you are unable to watch:

Ignore the storms. Ignore polar cold. Ignore sea levels rising all around us. Ignore climate change. That's David Jolly's view. But Gulf tides are rising, and the risk of flooding has doubled. NASA and the U.S. military agree: Pinellas needs to prepare. The Times says Jolly's wrong on climate change—that Jolly should go back to his "science books and learn some facts." David Jolly. Back to school, not to Congress.
The spot focuses on a simple yet effective map that shows just how vulnerable Pinellas County, a fragile peninsula that juts out between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay, would be to rising seas and worsening storms. Given how swingy Florida's 13th District is, climate change, when framed properly, must poll better than broadly phrased national survey questions suggest—otherwise LCV and Sierra wouldn't be plowing this kind of money into an ad like this.

1:50 PM PT: TX-33: The Democratic primary in Texas' 33rd has turned negative in its waning days, with freshman Rep. Marc Veasey airing ads attacking his opponent, attorney Tom Sanchez, as a "Republican" for voting in recent GOP primaries and donating to Republican presidential candidates in 2012. (The spot doesn't appear to be online.) Sanchez, meanwhile, is running positive ads in both English and Spanish, spending down the $800,000 he's donated to his own campaign.

There hasn't been any polling, but Veasey likely has the edge, as African American turnout should exceed Hispanic turnout, particularly since this is an off-year. But from the sound of it, Veasey is taking this challenge very seriously. Said Veasey: "Everybody should always consider themselves at risk." Too many politicians, though, don't seem to do that.

1:59 PM PT: KY-Sen: Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has a new ad portraying himself as a dedicated general in the war against the war on coal. Using a bit of praeterition, McConnell, perhaps in an excerpt from a speech, declares, "I don't have to tell you there's a war on coal in America." (See what he did there?) The end is filled with snippets of conversation, one of which has McConnell saying, "Damn right. We're not gonna sit there and take it—I assure you that." See, he talks just like a regular person!

2:15 PM PT: GA-Sen: Republican Rep. Jack Kingston is airing his first ad of the race, your classic introductory biographical spot. The narrator says that Kingston's Depression-raised parents "taught him the value of a dollar and the virtue of hard work," then mentions his conservative values and church-going ways. The ad ends with a funkadelic logo that looks like it's straight out of the 1970s. There's no word on the size of this groovy buy.

2:22 PM PT: MI-Sen: A lot of ink's been spilled in response to that shady Americans for Prosperity commercial that featured a Michigan woman with cancer complaining about her health coverage under Obamacare. Now we finally have a response in ad form, from the Senate Majority PAC, though it doesn't take AFP's claims head-on. Rather, the spot cites various fact-checks that found the original AFP ad wanting, then says "the special interests are falsely attacking Gary Peters." Why? Because Republican Terri Lynn Land "will give the wealthy and powerful tax breaks, paid for by middle class families." The size of the buy is a reported $400,000.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:00:15 AM PST

  •  PA-Other (0+ / 0-)

    Lawsuit was filed yesterday by a Dem-affiliated group to legalize SuperPACs in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  (The Department of State has taken the position that while Citizens United is binding, the SpeechNow.org decision isn't, being DC Circuit only.)

    Given that PA has no dollar limits on contributors to campaign, the effect would be on the source restrictions -- direct labor treasury funds, as well as corporate money, could flow into IE-only groups, if legalized here.

  •  CO-Sen (6+ / 0-)

    Cory Gardner's entry does put this more in play, but Udall is a good fit for the state and Gardner has just about the same positions as Ken Buck on everything. He has a record in the House that can be easily attacked. Another thing that bodes well for Democrats is that Ken Buck dropped out once Gardner got in. While it would certainly be preferable to face Ken Buck, his dropping out means that he doesn't think Gardner is a moderate RINO squish. He would have stayed in if he did.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:31:09 AM PST

  •  PA Q 2016 (5+ / 0-)

    Clinton leads Christie by 5, Paul, Bush and Cruz by 15-20.

    Obama 42/54 job approval.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:44:17 AM PST

  •  Ayotte a frontrunner for VP in 2016? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, sulthernao, pademocrat, wadingo

    Josh Rogin has the story.

    The fact that Bill Kristol has mentioned her is significant. VP selections have been one of the few if only things he has been right about in recent years.

    He predicted Palin and Ryan, if I'm not mistaken.

    But there are a lot of hurdles. Logistically, I dont how she would run for VP while being up for re-election in 2016. Many in the tea party dont like some of her moderate votes(immigration reform) yet I dont know if she appeals to more moderate voters either. Also, not clear if a hawkish foreign policy is really going to sell well in 2016.

    And while she isnt Palin, if it seems like she was just added to the ticket to appeal to potential Hillary voters(like Palin was supposed to), that could backfire.

    •  Qualifications? She has a uterus (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      The Caped Composer, JBraden

      Ayotte is an empty suit.  The Curly to McCain and Graham's Moe and Larry.  She won't add anything to the ticket.  She's not a charismatic Christian like Palin and she's about as dumb as Palin.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:05:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ayotte (7+ / 0-)

      She should be on anyone's potential VP list for 2016. She is young, photogenic, elected in an Obama Bush state, has bipartisan cured serving in a Democratic administration. She is a solid choice for VP for a presidential candidate that needs some Washington bona fides, I.e. a sitting governor that's never been in congress.

      As for running for reelection, New Hampshire law allows it, and there is plenty of precedent, with Joe Biden and Paul Ryan recent examples of this.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:06:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  She's a good establishment choice. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, James Allen

      I'm kind of surprised that Romney didn't pick her this year, if he even considered her, although maybe the stench of Palin kept her off.

      I'm just not sure who might pick her in 2016. Jeb Bush, sure, and maybe Walker, but why her over Martinez? If a dud like Cruz or Paul gets it and is smart enough to consider her, does she even accept? Huckabee, too.

      She might as well launch her own presidential campaign in 2016 if HRC doesn't run. Hell, maybe even if she does.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:26:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, now, Martinez would be a very strong (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        VP choice. Sandoval too, if he doesnt run for Senate.

        They might be too moderate to be selected, but in part of that reason, they would be strong VP choices.

        A pre-Bridgegate Christie with a Sandoval or Martinez would have been really strong.

        Similar situation to Clinton/Gore, emphasizing a more moderate ticket overall.

        •  Many seem to think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          there needs to be some sort of foreign policy cred on the Republican ticket, and maybe they are right. But if not, I'll go on record as saying that if they win reelection, the ticket will probably be Walker and Martinez.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:50:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Tea Partiers won't like Martinez (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, bjssp, JBraden

          She's got a level head and has done a lot of "practical" things as governor. That disqualifies her, unless someone like Rand Paul decides to f$%$k the tea party and go for it.

          •  Rand Paul will not be the nominee (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sacman701, LordMike, wadingo, jj32, DCCyclone

            he's polling where his father did. He has no broader appeal.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:17:56 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't know about that (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, LordMike, wadingo, gabjoh, jj32

              I think he has a much better and most of all realistic chance of being the GOP nominee, than his father ever had.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:50:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I might almost be able to agree with that (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, wadingo, Stephen Wolf

                but where he has advantages his father didn't, he also lacks some appeal his father had. He has none of his father's charm, for example. His father seemed genial if opinionated. Rand comes off no less arrogant than Ted Cruz.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:58:12 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Maybe I'm biased because (for a Republican) (0+ / 0-)

                  I like his policy views (again, really low bar) but I don't think he comes off as particularly arrogant, especially not compared to Cruz. Kind of bumbling, if anything. But we'll see what his national profile ends up being if he does run.

                  "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

                  by gabjoh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:46:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  you like his policy views? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh

                    like that public accommodations should be able to discriminate in who they serve? I mean that's just one thing I find disgusting. I think you and I generally have similar views, and I'm surprised you think you agree with him much. Perhaps in areas where he is at odds with many Republicans, yeah, but those are few.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:09:10 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My guess is he meant certain views, not all of (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      gabjoh

                      them, compared to most Republicans, whose views he agrees with none of the time.

                      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

                      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:24:44 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  He also doesn't have all of the racial baggage (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh

                  his father had.  It didn't come up in the primary a couple years ago to the degree it would were he the front-runner, but the reality is that Ron Paul had some pretty nasty racial stuff.

                  29, Hispanic, Current home: MO-05; Born: CA-13; Raised: CA-5; Political Work: KS-03, KS-02; Other work: TX-16

                  by killacity on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:41:36 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  Sandoval will never . . . (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, JBraden, jj32, Jacob1145, jncca

          . . . appear on a national GOP ticket, as he is pro-choice.

          30, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "'Let's talk about health care, Mackenzie!' 'Oh Amanda, I'd rather not; that's not polite!'"

          by The Caped Composer on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:39:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Tom Cotton (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145

      My guess is that the 2016 GOP ticked will consist of a Midwestern governor (Walker, Kasich or Pence) for president, and Tom Cotton, who will probably unseat Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) in November, for V.P.

  •  CO-SEN: The catfud is already flying... (16+ / 0-)

    Methinks this was not the glorious sound of trumpets that Cory Gardner was expecting to welcome him into the race. According to Roll Call::

    The Tea Party Express backed Buck’s bid for Senate in 2010, but endorsed Hill this cycle. In fact, the Tea Party Express blasted Buck in a Wednesday evening solicitation for donations:

    In a move that reeks of a smoke filled back room D.C. deal, Republican primary front-runner Ken Buck announced that he has dropped out of the race and Congressman Cory Gardner will take his spot in the race. In return for the favor, Ken Buck is going to run for Gardner’s Congressional seat. The  deal also included a trade of endorsements of each other.

    It is evident that the D.C. Republican establishment is worried about the insurgent campaign of conservative Owen Hill and think that their hand-picked candidate will have better luck in defeating the Tea Party.  Congressman Gardner has quickly become popular with the Washington, D.C. Republican establishment crowd and even joined the ranks of the Republican leadership last year.

    Suffice it to say, I hope this is but an amuse buche in a smorgasbord of catfud.

    28 • Gay Male • CA-35 (new) • Pragmatic • Progressive • Liberal • Democrat

    by BluntDiplomat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:59:32 AM PST

  •  Any State House or Senate seats we could flip? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, James Allen

    In this year's election that is?  Any we are in danger of losing?

    •  Colorado Senate etc. (9+ / 0-)

      I think there's a good chance those two seats lost to recall flip back (they're 58% and 59% Obama).  There are certain chambers others know way more about, but I think the Kentucky House might flip GOP and there's a chance of breaking up the Majority Coalition in the WA Senate.  

      The PA Senate has the potential to get interesting, between some open seats and some good candidate recruitment by both sides.  I'm thinking about doing on a diary on it if I find the time.

      •  Colorado Senate is still Dem (5+ / 0-)

        It could flip back to R's but it would take a big wave, because at least one (and probably both) of the recall seat are there for the taking.

        •  I was discussing both seat flips and chambers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8

          So I meant to say that I think that both of those seats will flip back to the Dems, but I didn't mean to imply that it would flip control either way. I think the worst D-held seat is something like 51% Obama and like you said, and that's without even factoring in the recall seats.

        •  To my knowledge (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, JBraden, madmojo, ProgMD

          we've got solid candidates in both race.

          State rep. Leroy Garcia (D) is challenging Sen. George Rivera (R) to get the Pueblo seat back, and this one should be an easy flip.

          Former state rep. Michael Merrifield (D) seems to be our challenger to Sen. Bernie Herpin (R), and really any half-way competent candidate should be able to get this one back too.

          We've got a few other tricky defenses (SD-05, SD-16, SD-19, and SD-22), but given the fact we were able to hold all of them even with the GOP wave in 2010 gives me hope.  They were also all won by Obama in 2012 by margins ranging from 3 to 8.

          We don't have much room for offense besides the two recalled seats, but there's an open seat in Greeley (SD-13) that Romney only won by 2 points.  That's pretty much it for now, although in 2016 there's a couple other GOP seats up that Romney only narrowly won.

    •  Minnesota House (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, LordMike, WisJohn

      We are going to lose seats, its just a matter of if it will be enough to flip the chamber. Right now I would bet on "no" but I wouldn't double down on it.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:52:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How Many Can the DFL Afford To Lose.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        .....and still hold the majority?  My guess is it's long gone.

        •  They can lose 5. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27, OGGoldy, lordpet8

          That would give them 68 and the GOP 66. After 2004, that was the make-up, but with the GOP holding the edge.

          OGGoldy has stated Rep. Radinovich is practically a dead man walking up in the Crosby area.

          There are others as well, such as Rep. Morgan in Burnsville, Rep. Sawatzky in Wilmar, Rep. Erickson in the Lake of the Woods/Bemidji area, Rep. McNamar in the Morris area, Rep. Faust in Pine County, and the ever-endangered Rep. Fritz in Faribault that are going to be fights. There's probably some more Reps. from the suburbs that I am forgetting.

          Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

          by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:11:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Shannon Savick In My Home District..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            ....I believe it's still 27A, is gonna have a tough fight as well.  She was a not-ready-for-primetime politician when she snuck in on Obama's coattails in 2012 and still seems outside her depth.  The Albert Lea Tribune has a left-leaning editorial page and talks a lot of smack about her, particularly after she couldn't make the sale to Dayton on any Albert Lea-related projects for infrastructure priorities.  Her opponent is a schoolteacher from Albert Lea which is the district's population base (Savick is from a small town in a neighboring county) who seems poised to capture the middle in a way that a long line of moderate GOPers have in blue-tinted District 27A going back decades.  I'm not optimistic of Savick's chances for survival.

            •  What is with that district? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Mark27

              You'd think that after Dan Dorman retired, it would be fairly Safe-D. Yet it keeps flirting with or electing Republicans.

              Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

              by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:35:05 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's Been Like This For Decades..... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                WisJohn, ArkDem14

                The biggest problem is the persistent mismatch in candidate quality.  The Republicans groom skillful moderate politicians of the Dan Dorman-Rich Murray variety while Democrats always seem to run lukewarm candidates.  Growing up there, the district has a very well-oiled union apparatus that is far more politically active than that of next door Mower County, despite that county's reputation as a labor stronghold, yet nobody from that machinery has ever come across as a raw political talent capable of seizing the district's moderates who always seem to vote DFL upballot.  Call it a regional quirk that I can't fully explain.

          •  Some of those I actually feel good about (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            Faust I feel good about. Erickson I actually feel really good about. Fritz I feel better than I have about.

            Radinovich, Savick, McNamar, Sawatzky, Morgan and Falk are in a rough spot. I don't feel good about Selcer or Rosenthal or Fischer. Masin and Halverson both sit in districts that will turn on any incumbent in a heartbeat. Defending Benson's open seat won't be fun. Yarusso sits in a district she should win, but it's hardly safe, or even Likely D with Generic R vs. Generic D.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:14:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I hope Radinovich manages to hold on (0+ / 0-)

            "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on hi not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

            by lordpet8 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:23:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Don't bet on it. (0+ / 0-)

              Unfortunately.

              Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

              by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:21:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah, I guess I'm hoping for an upset. (0+ / 0-)

                It seems he only won by a mere 323 votes back in 2012.
                So he would have had a tough road to reelection even if he didn't take risky votes.

                "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on him not understanding it" - Upton Sinclair

                by lordpet8 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:38:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Really? Why? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        Dayton's popularity wont help?

        •  A Lot Of Low-Hanging Fruit..... (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jj32, WisJohn, wadingo, OGGoldy

          ....the DFL ran the table on most of the close races in 2012 and have a good dozen very vulnerable seats this cycle.  Same problem as US House Dems in 2010....significant overexposure.

          •  Sure we won a lot of close races (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, askew, lordpet8

            but I really don't see them as being that endangered considering the over-all good feeling in MN.  Shit got done, budgets were fixed, surpluses were created, rebates will occur.  If any of our incumbents lose, it's because they did a piss poor job highlighting how great Minnesota is doing and tying their performance into that.

            •  I wish it were that simple (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8

              And a tiny sliver of me hopes you're right.

              Then the rest of me sees the complete disconnect with what is going on in St. Paul and how people outside of the 694-494 loop see what's going on in St. Paul.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:03:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Dayton will win in Hennepin and Ramsey (0+ / 0-)

          But there aren't enough seats in those counties to hold the house. Truth be told Dayton may be a net negative in trying to hold the house, and Smith's selection didn't help.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:01:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  At this point (0+ / 0-)

        At this point the Democratic advantage in both sides seems big for a change in the majority in a year that seems not to be a wave.

        It seems logical to see the blue team losing some seat, but in the other side, do you see some chance of winning MN-SD-28 and MNHD-28B?

        •  MN-Sen is not up in 2014 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          WisJohn, lordpet8, James Allen

          And even when its up, miller will be nearly impossible to unseat. He is the son of a longtime popular mayor. He sits in a blue seat, but I don't see us taking him out.

          Davids in 28B will be tough to unseat. He has been around for nearly 25 years, and there is little indication he is going anywhere. And the district isn't THAT blue, it is actually to the right of the state as a whole at 51.5% Obama. When Davids retires, it will be a good target though.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:38:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  My best guesses (6+ / 0-)

      Competitive Rep-held chambers:

      Arizona Senate - Only a few seats would flip it and the GOP legislature has really embarrassed itself of late.

      Iowa House - GOP only has a 53-47 edge.

      Michigan House - GOP has a 59-50 majority.  Could depend on where Snyder stands come election day.

      New Hampshire Senate - VERY volatile elections in NH.  GOP holds a slim 13-11 majority.

      New York Senate - Always hard to say given the IDC.

      Pennsylvania House and Senate - Toxic GOP Governor atop the ballot and GOP majorities that aren't too terribly large.

      Washington Senate - Slim GOP majority at the moment.

      Competitive Dem-held chambers:

      Colorado Senate - Only an 18-17 edge, but still seems a likely hold as two of those GOP seats are fairly heavily Dem and only lost in fluke recall elections.  If anything Dems might pickup seats.

      Iowa Senate - Dems have just a 26-24 edge.

      Kentucky House - Dems have a slim 54-46 edge and aren't looking good on the generic ballot.

      Nevada Senate - Dems hold an 11-10 edge and it seems this chamber is always close.

      New Hampshire House - Dems hold a 220-179 majority, but this is easily the most volatile chamber in the nation, some elections see a 100+ seat swing.

      West Virginia House - Dems are tanking bad in this state.  What was huge Dem majority not long ago is down to a 54-46 edge.

    •  here Republicans have 3 senate districts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo

      won by Obama up this year, two of which are now more Democratic than the state as a whole, and one of which only has an appointed incumbent running against a Democratic state rep. They also have two open state house districts which Obama won. We could lose some senate seats, but that would mean losing incumbents who survived 2010. In the state house some of our freshmen may be vulnerable, but again our incumbents who survived 2010 should be strong enough, and all of our incumbents in tough districts are running. That's a big deal, because half of our losses in 2010 came in open districts.

      I think there will definitely be some poaching of seats, but I'm fairly certain there's only a low chance of a change of control.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:25:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In Hawaii (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Jacob1145, DCCyclone

      our only potentially competitive state senate election will be SD-23, held by Clayton Hee.  It was the only competitive state senate seat in 2012 when the whole chamber was up because of redistricting, and he won by 7 points over a pretty strong GOP challenger.  Still, the district is sliding away from us as North Shore turns Republican (Obama only got 58% of the vote here, his single worst performance in the state...our 2016 presidential nominee might actually lose this seat).

      Sam Slom's not up this year so the Republicans are assured of keeping their single incumbent.

      As for the state House, right off the bat we're gunning for Lauren Cheape, Bob McDermott, and Beth Fukumoto who all barely won in 2012.  The three other Republicans are safe.

      As for defense, all of our incumbents won in landslides in 2012 (literally the smallest margin of victory for a Democrat that year was 15 points...while beating a GOP incumbent), but open seats could complicate this.  So far, Denny Coffman has resigned and his replacement could have some trouble.  Not aware of any other retirements coming but with an August primary, we might not know for awhile.

      Overall, I'm thinking 2014 returns a legislature of similar composition.  There could be a couple flips in the state House either way, but that's it.

  •  NJ-12: Former Governor James Florio is (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Setsuna Mudo, jj32

    backing Bonnie Watson Coleman.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

  •  Corey Gardner, seriously? (9+ / 0-)

    I'm trying very hard to figure out why so many take this guy seriously.  This guy is every bit the extremist Buck is (maybe more so) and has a Congressional record to back it up.  There a big difference between winning election in a R+12 district and winning a D+1 state.  And good luck to him distancing himself from the toxic Tancredo atop the ticket.  Tancredo strongly backed Gardner's initial 2010 run for Congress.  I'd be shocked if Gardner moved the needle one inch in this race.  Somewhere between Leans D and Likely D, same as it was pre-Gardner entry to the race.

    •  I dont know if I'm that optimistic, but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      I think you make some good points.

      I think the counterargument is, Udall hasnt been polling great against the current group of GOP contenders, and Gardner is stronger. So that's the concern.

      But I dont disagree. Gardner is conservative, and you can tie him to the GOP House. While Buck or Hill might be weaker candidates, neither is some dude and they both could have run as DC outsiders against Udall. Gardner cant do that.

      John Suthers worried me more than Gardner. It still worries me that he could run in 2016.

      In the end, I think Udall will win by a decent(5%) margin.

    •  More About The Messenger Than The Message..... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jncca

      Whether he's an extremist or not, if he can pass himself off as a mainstream Republican better than Buck, he's better positioned to win.  I know nothing about the man or his political skills to predict whether he can sell Buck's policy ideas to Colorado voters better than Buck can/could, but remember that in Minnesota, John Kline has been repeatedly elected in a district that went for Obama twice despite having a nearly identical voting record to Michele Bachmann.

      •  And so did Mark Kennedy (6+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BKGyptian89, jj32, WisJohn, LordMike, askew, JBraden

        Remember how that guy was supposed to be the GOP wonderkid of MN politics?  He was a conservative, representing a conservative district who tried his best to talk like a moderate in running statewide.  How'd he do statewide?  A 58-38 loss in the 2006 open MN Senate race.  It's hard for someone who represents a far-right CD to moderate themself enough to run a credible statewide campaign in a moderate to left-leaning state.  Gardner's statewide numbers were not even great prior to entry into the race.  I fail to see how they improve once he's defined as a hardline conservative.

        •  That's what I said yesterday (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          about not being worried about Colorado. I'm just upset that the DSCC has to spend more money here now than they originally planned. Where that money could have gone elsewhere.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:11:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Even that's not guaranteed yet (0+ / 0-)

            Gardner could flame out spectacularly.

            26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

            by HoosierD42 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:41:10 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  How so? Right-wing groups would spend regardless (0+ / 0-)

            These dark money right-wing groups have virtually infinite sums of cash to spend against Senate Dems.  They would have spent huge sums attacking Udall even if Buck were their nominee.  I fail to see how that changes with Gardner in the race.  Either way the DSCC was going to have to spend soem money backing Udall.

        •  Did Kennedy lose his CD in his Senate run? (0+ / 0-)

          From looking at the map, I'd say it was close.

          Course when he ran for Senate, that gifted us Michelle Bachmann.

          Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

          by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:15:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I remember, and I laughed and laughed when (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, LordMike, JBraden

          he got his ass kicked Klobuchar.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:16:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  we should keep in mind the study which showed (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Mark27, LordMike, Skaje, jncca

          politicians tend to think their constituents are more conservative than they really are, and that was especially so of Republicans. He may not think he even has to moderate that much.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:34:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  You have some points (0+ / 0-)

          but I don't see how Minnesota in 2006 translates to Colorado in 2014. Totally different states in a much much friendlier GOP environment. If nothing else Gardner will bring in a good amount of money and outside spending and force Udall and national Dems to work for this one far harder than they would have against an empty suit like Buck.

        •  Looking Back A Decade..... (8+ / 0-)

          ....it's incredibly hard to know what the Republicans were thinking with their inflated impression of Kennedy, especially after his ham-fisted 2004 campaign against Patty Wetterling turned a race that should have been a Kennedy blowout into a single-digit affair.  That campaign should have spelled out to the GOP Kennedy's limitations, but they nonetheless pressed forward with clearing the field for him in 2006.  He did run an impressive surprise attack campaign that wiped out Democrat David Minge in 2000, and did so on the cheap at that, and it clearly convinced Minnesota Republicans this guy was way better than he was.

          Interestingly, I dated a Republican girl a few years back who worked on Mark Kennedy's Senate campaign.  She said he was a complete pig who was groping all the young women on his campaign staff, in obvious contrast to his family values campaign image.

          Not sure the Mark Kennedy-Cory Gardner comparison works though as 2006 was a hugely Democratic year, especially in Minnesota, and Amy Klobuchar is a very strong politician.  I'm not convinced Gardner is as weak as Kennedy or that Udall is as strong as Klobuchar...and I'm definitely not convinced that the political climate in Colorado will be as strong in 2014 as it was in Minnesota in 2006.  Too soon to tell of course, but I still think the GOP's chances at picking up this seat improved dramatically from where they were 24 hours ago.

      •  Getting a late start (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, LordMike

        gives him less of a chance to present himself to the state as such. We can easily define him, and Udall hasn't had to weather the level of onslaught Hagan, Landrieu, etc., have from AFP. That'll pick up in earnest soon, I'm sure, but time is valuable, and AFP won't have as much of it to spend on unanswered attacks.

    •  Will Gardner win his primary? (0+ / 0-)

      I asked this yesterday, and ColoDem said the CRP was strong enough to get Gardner past Buck, but really, is there a chance any of the other guys could win? Not only would that be endlessly amusing, but it'd make our lives a lot easier again.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:52:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Basically, to use a Missouri analogy (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Stephen Wolf, James Allen

      They swapped out Todd Akin for Sam Graves.  Only problem is, this is still a state Obama won by 5 points in 2012.  Having a less offensive conservative gives them a better chance, but that's not a high bar when the former candidate had a <1% chance.

      I think Udall wins by maybe 7 now, whereas I think he could have beaten Buck by 12.

      That might sound crazy given the polls, but consider that a lot of pollsters have understated Dem numbers in Colorado by as much as 10 points, and you see why.

    •  demeanor (0+ / 0-)

      Gardner doesn't make off the wall comments. Also, Colorado has elected reactionaries to the senate - Armstrong and Allard's ACU ratings both clocked in in the mid 90s.

      •  Colorado has changed. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Avedee

        I have this at Lean D.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:11:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-21: Woolf as a blank slate (0+ / 0-)

    In yesterday's live digest, I said he was a blank slate. jncca disagreed with me. Not entirely sure why, but he does.

    I get that we had several people we might have preferred as candidates, and maybe we will still get one of them. But if Woolf is out candidate, I wouldn't panic, if only because there's nothing we can do after a certain point, but also because none of the Republicans is anything special. But more than anything else, let's learn more about him.

    It seems easy enough to make him into hipster, but he doesn't  look like one. His documentary was about farming, which seems like a decent starting point for a conversation with the district's voters, given agriculture is a big deal up there. And he owns a food store, not a tattoo parlor that specializes in putting sex scenes on necks or something. Organic, sure, and in Brooklyn, but he chose to live in Elizabethtown, not in Brooklyn.

    Anyway, what bothers me the most is that he apparently has no web site up. Time to get on that if he plans to take this race seriously.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:42:58 AM PST

    •  The guy doesn't have a website (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, UpstateNYer, jncca, aamail6

      It's been almost a month.  Sorry but if this is our candidate, its a Lean/Likely R race.

      32/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:58:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't agree with you much... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, aamail6

        But I agree this seat is basically gone unless Republicans fall flat on their face (not impossible) or another Democrat decides to save the day for us.

        Unbelievable that out of a field of very strong prospective candidates, local Democrats decided that a Some Dude from Brooklyn was the ticket.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:03:10 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't think he's from Brooklyn. (0+ / 0-)

          He seems to live in the district.

          But regardless, this is kind of strange. I lack knowledge about this process, but if the DCCC isn't involved, what impact does the local party really have? In other words, if some random small businessman really wanted to run, could he have any chance, or this really Woolf's candidacy to lose?

          At least we still have time left for someone else to come in.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:09:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He moved his voter registration from the city (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            to Essex county this month.  

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:34:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  More positively (0+ / 0-)

              The property he is claiming as his primary residence has been in the family since 1968, and he did his undergrad work 40-odd miles away at Middlebury College.

              No idea how the co-writer credit on two songs by Phish might play in the district.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:31:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Fine, but when did he move in? (0+ / 0-)

              "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:45:36 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  The press kit from his 2010 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bjssp

                documentary "Beyond the Motor City" describes him as dividing his time between NYC and Elizabethtown.  He's done significant work in international locations, as well.  I'm sure he's maintained multiple residences for a considerable period, but how much that will count for with the locals is likely to be at issue, unless his wife and kid have closer ties to the district.

                Here's his father's obit:

                http://articles.baltimoresun.com/...

                which probably explains why he went to private school in NJ.

                Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                by benamery21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:47:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  His wife- Dr. Carolyn Sicher (0+ / 0-)

              Has a PhD in clinical psychology and works at Mt. Sinai in Manhattan as an Asst Professor.  They have been married since Oct, 2009.

              http://icahn.mssm.edu/...

              http://books.google.com/...

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 01:04:48 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  any district Obama won is fair game (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          benamery21

          if dems can't win seats like these then we're not winning back the house for a generation.

      •  And now he finally has a bare website up (6+ / 0-)

        30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

        by footfootfoot on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:36:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The only thing I see (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, LordMike, JGibson, benamery21

        is a possible GOP/Ind/Conservative split between Stefanik and Doheny. That could cause a real mess. Doheny already apparently has the Indy line locked down, which has to be a blow to Republicans. Doesn't make sense to me to endorse so early, especially with another credible candidate getting almost all GOP backing. He must have pictures of someone in the Ind party leadership.

        •  Who was it that described the NY Ind. Party as... (0+ / 0-)

          caring mostly about:

          1) Does the candidate have money?

          2) Will the candidate promote the Ind. Party?

          Very little ideology involved, or specific proposals.  It's a party that exists simply to exist, and will jump on anyone that will have them.

          Anyway, our main hope here has to be a GOP/Ind/Con fight as you said.  If the eventual GOP nominee loses even one of the other ballot lines, it could be fatal.  If they lose both of them (for instance, Stefanik getting GOP while Doheny gets both Ind and Con) then it's game over for them.

          •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje

            Seems to describe their party pretty well. They love to jump on incumbent bandwagons of both parties for this reason.

            I can't remember if Doheny was beloved of the Conservatives last cycle, but having Hoffman on their line in 2010 cost him this seat so I can't imagine they are buddy/buddy. At this point anything in this district wouldn't surprise me. National GOP has to be pressuring Conservative party hard to not endorse Doheny, or anyone else for that matter.

      •  I wouldn't go that far (6+ / 0-)

        I have it tilt R. On paper, Woolf has an awful profile and I think he starts with a disadvantage. But he could turn out to be a better fundraiser and campaigner than expected. For the GOP, Stefanik is unproven and Doheny is no great shakes. There is still a lot of uncertainty in this race. Compare it to something like VA10 where you know what you're getting with both Foust and Chopstick.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:19:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He has a website now so on planet Concern (0+ / 0-)

        did the heads all just explode or what?

        Get a grip.  It's fucking February.  

        All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

        by tommypaine on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:03:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm good thanks (0+ / 0-)

          The fact that he took a month to put up a bare bones website and hasn't been heard from much at all still signals to me this guy isn't going to win anything for us.

          Can anyone link me to fundraisers this guys done?  People who have endorsed him?  Anyone?  Bueller?

          32/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

          by Socks The Cat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:05:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The "fact" is it was two weeks not a month (0+ / 0-)

            You simply have to even exaggerate over something that doesn't matter in the least.

            Two weeks... in February.  Bueller?  Bueller? Hello?

            How many fundraisers has the Republican done in the past two weeks?  2464?  10,183?  One?  Zero?

            Stop crying over nothing.  The real race doesn't even start for six months.

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:57:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Also, if Stefanik wins the GOP primary (0+ / 0-)

      Doheny will still have the Independence to siphon off votes. I'm not sure what the Conservative party is doing yet, but Working Families will back us, and the Greens will do whatever the hell they do.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:43:42 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA 2016 PPP (6+ / 0-)

    Clinton leads hypothetical general election match ups in the state by similar margins to Barack Obama's victory there in 2012. She's up 4 on Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee at 45/41 and 46/42 respectively, 5 on Rand Paul at 47/42, and 6 on Chris Christie at 45/39.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:48:00 AM PST

    •  Christie and Iowa (9+ / 0-)

      This is a piece of evidence to support a hypothesis I have long had: Christie will fall flat in the Midwest. His brash style just does not sit well with the more mild mannered population there. This isn't New York of Philadelphia where being a prick is not only accepted, but expected and graded.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:55:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  People are pricks in Philadelphia? (0+ / 0-)

        But anyway, I think Christie would have to run the sort of tight ship that would make even the most well-prepared military man nervous. A very controlled environment, where only true believers get to see him on the ground, more so than Bush-Cheney in 2004. The temptation for someone on our side to ask an inappropriate question would be too damn strong, and once he yells at that sweet retired nurse in Ohio, he'd be doomed.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:04:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Have you been to Philly? (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, sacman701, wadingo, jncca, MetroGnome

          Look how they are when it comes to their sports teams.

          NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

          by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:08:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The last time I went to Philly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            was for a wedding in the summer of 2012. The only things I remember were how poorly some of the roads seemed to be paved and how slow everyone moved in the department store I went to, although I probably felt rushed because I was getting dressed for the wedding and realized I forgot my tie and had to jog a few blocks away before the shuttle let from the hotel. It was totally awesome, too, since it was June and really hot that day.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:14:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I think Christie falls flat in the primaries (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think we'll ever get the chance to face him.

        And it's only partly because he's tagged by conservatives as a "RINO," the scandal also hurts him.  He just doesn't have the same stature anymore.  His only chance is for all the other GOP candidates to have their own serious warts.  In which case, Hillary beats the winner in a walk anyway, and if Hillary doesn't run then it's still Dem-favored.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:48:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I know IA has a lot of evangelicals, (0+ / 0-)

      butI have to think HRC would absolutely demolish Huckabee. Same for Cruz. Hell, so would O'Malley.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:56:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Huckabee's Folksy Temperament..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn

        .....would play well in Iowa.  Whether his social conservatism would ultimately fail him outside the base is another question, but in a defensive environment I could easily see Huckabee turning Iowa red.

        •  Teh Base (0+ / 0-)

          sees Huck as a has-been, TV money grubber.

        •  LOL, no chance, Huckabee gets crushed (5+ / 0-)

          Huckabee's "temperament" is defined by his inflammatory rhetoric and right-wing evangelical fundamentalist politics.

          He'd ultimately be another Goldwater and get crushed in November.

          But some of his fatal general election flaws also happen to be fatal primary flaws:  can't raise money, no appeal to certain critical factions of the party.  Just like the Newts and Santorums of the world, what makes us giddy to face Huck are things that doom him before we get the chance.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:31:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Huckabee has to know... (0+ / 0-)

        That with all of the batshit crazy things he's said on television and radio, he's DOA if he gets into the race. That's the tough part about being a commentator -- and it's probably why most politicians who become commentators don't get back into politics after being a pundit.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:09:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Clintons for Bruce Braley? (0+ / 0-)

      Iowa has been a problem for the Clintons. Harkin ran in 1992, so there wasnt much if any competition for that state then.

      Hillary of course came in third in 2008. She wont lose the caucus in 2012, but the general might be an issue.

      If Bill and/or Hillary ends in Iowa this year campaigning for Braley, it's probably a  sign Hillary is running for president.

    •  Just wait untill DCCyclone announces. (11+ / 0-)

      He'll blow all these Republicans out of the water.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:17:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Those numbers seem soft (0+ / 0-)

      or at least, don't mesh with landslide numbers we've seen in other states.

  •  Maybe this is how Woolf won the endorsement (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, LordMike, Taget, James Allen

    Trying to learn more about him, I came across this link and saw this:

    According to TWC News’ Brian Dwyer, the Democrats had three potential candidates to choose from. (It was four, but former Oswego Mayor John Sullivan took himself out of the running yesterday). Two people showed up to be interviewed today. The chairs are being rather tight-lipped about the process.
    Was this a one-day process? If so, and he was only one of two people that showed up, well...that probably explains it.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:54:48 AM PST

    •  I really cant believe we gonna piss away this seat (5+ / 0-)

      It blasphemous Dems couldn't find a better candidate here.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:06:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm trying to learn more about this and find out (0+ / 0-)

        what I can. Maybe I'll send out a few emails and see if anyone bites. Couldn't hurt, I guess.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:10:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  honestly I think its because local Dems (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, ArkDem14

      did it so soon, before many of the potential candidates had made up their minds.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:37:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  8 cities in the running for GOP convention (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, ProgMD, ehstronghold, wadingo

    3 in Ohio.  None in the east.

    Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, Denver, Dallas, Kansas City, Las Vegas & Phoenix .

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:15:29 AM PST

  •  Feeling better about Hagan today. (11+ / 0-)

    Tillis seems to be totally oblivious to the idea that minimum qage is both a good thing and needs to be raised.  In fact, he may want to get rid of it.  If I recall, poverty is pretty high in NC.  He'd need to win some of the poorer tidewater area counties to win, and those areas are quite poor outside of Dare county.

  •  Udall Going After Gardner (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Is it too sign for Udall to go after Gardner? I'm not saying he needs to panic, but he has more money than Gardner and probably doesn't have to worry about running out of people to shake down.

    I haven't seen any polling on this, but I can't think he's all that well known to the state. How about we cut him off at the knees before he even knows what hit him?

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:20:48 AM PST

    •  Don't take any race for granted (5+ / 0-)

      This race is still between lean-likely Dem. It's good Udall ain't taking Gardner for granted.

      NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

      by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:22:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It depends how close it already is (0+ / 0-)

      If Udall's polling shows Gardner running reasonably close but with big vulnerabilities that could quickly drive up his negatives, then it's likely worth it to attack early.  But otherwise, attacking him early could backfire by merely enhancing Gardner's stature in the eyes of the media, GOP donors, and, eventually, general election voters.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:51:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another day... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Without a legitimate candidate in the Mississippi Senate race. The filing deadline is Saturday.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:37:18 AM PST

  •  NY-11: Grimm picks stupid fight with local GOP. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ArkDem14

    One issue probably not known outside of the area is the poor pace of Sandy rebuilding and the anger among many of it's victims over the response.

    Republican Borough President Jimmy Oddo invited the Mayor of New York City and the local political leaders to discuss this and come up with solutions.

    At worst this is a great photo op for a Congressman in a tough fight who has faced a spat of poor publicity.  Michael Grimm had other ideas.

    http://www.silive.com/...

    STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. - Rep. Michael Grimm slammed a meeting between Mayor Bill de Blasio and Staten Island elected officials on Hurricane Sandy recovery as a waste of time, leading some of those who attended to knock the congressman for skipping it.

    "The people deserve action, not more hollow rhetoric, which is precisely what they got from the mayor's visit," Grimm told the Advance. "Rather than waste my time getting no answers at all on Build it Back or the illusive Acquisition Program, I returned to Washington to continue the fight to pass flood insurance reform for my constituents.

    Whether or not Grimm as trying to score cheap political points with the right wing by trashing deBlasio or trying to put Jimmy Oddo who has been at odds with his political patron, Guy Molinari, in his place this didn't go over well.
    "I choose to be at the table because I know that is the best and only way to finally get the help my hometown needs. Being at the table -- pushing, asking, imploring, suggesting and initiating -- that's what will get this desperately needed help," said Oddo.

    He was critical of Grimm's decision not to attend:

    "Pounding the table may be what is required; but choosing not to be at the table at this point in time and, in fact, kicking that table over, helps not a single Staten Islander."

    And Grimm responded with the grace and thoughtfulness we've all come to expect from him.
    In response, Grimm slammed everyone who attended the meeting -- the majority of them being fellow Republicans.

    "To attend and smile and snap pictures is a slap in the face when there are still countless Staten Islanders who are displaced from their homes," Grimm scolded his fellow elected officials.

    I guess now that the Republican Party endorsed him Grimm feels free to disrespect them.  Though he may want to wait.  Still time for Vito Fossella to print up petitions sheets.  Petitioning doesn't even start till March 4th.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:48:27 AM PST

  •  Sent out an email about Woolf (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Jacques Kallis

    to the chair of the local Democrats involved in his selection, but from the site, since two attempts bounced back. It was forwarded to the chair, and I'll report back anything I learn.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:48:56 AM PST

    •  They were supposedly wowed by him (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike

      as was Bill Owens, by his local knowledge.  I hope you get more detail in your search.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:58:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If Bill Owens liked his local knowledge (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, LordMike, gabjoh

        That's a pretty good sign. Hopefully Woolf can wow the local voters and national Dems as well.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:08:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I just hope he's willing to work for it. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        I assume he'll be the nominee, and while their preferred candidate might have a leg up, it's not that much of a leg up. It's a House district, not a Senate race, so pavement pounding could be helpful. Unless he's a real oddball, he'll probably be able to raise enough money. And it's still really, really early.

        Considering some of the turds in Congress, I think it's safe to say people have been elected with less.

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:09:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Documentary filmmaker and Brooklyn (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, James Allen

      organic grocery store owner so I was picturing some 30 year old bearded hipster dude, basically someone that looks like me. And I was thinking how is this supposed to work upstate or really anywhere? Selection still seems a little odd, but at least its not that bad. Hope we get more info from the chair.

      Also in my research I find he has some kind of tangential connection to the band Phish (above my pay grade) but maybe that can help him raise some money/earned media. http://www.jambase.com/...

      CA-12, (-5.50, -6.77), originally CA-46

      by Jacques Kallis on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:40:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kind of unrelated, but King Corn is a pretty good (5+ / 0-)

        documentary. It isn't heavy handed like Food Inc. but still gets the message across (and incidentally made me quit eating red meat after watching it...).

        Anyway I don't think he's the worst candidate in the world and many here seem to be overestimating Stefanik who is not exactly imposing and still has to get past Doheny, but I do think we're now more likely to lose this seat than not. But it still is not easy for Republicans to win an open seat Obama won by 6%.

        •  One reason to support Woolf, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, benamery21

          aside from him being a Democrat, is that he's not your typical House member. He'd be one of 435, sure, but he's not a lawyer or something else we usually see.

          "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:48:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  He's just about the worst kind of candidate (0+ / 0-)

          For any upstate NY district.  A NYC Democrat (assuming his profile of a "Brooklyn grocery store owner" is true).  Even upstate Democrats view NYC Democrats suspiciously.  It's us vs. them mentality.  Certifiably Crazy Carl Paladino took Buffalo's county by 21%(!) in 2010.  Paladino was an "us" for Western NY.

          Doheny is an "us" for NY-21.  He would crush Woolf.  Stefanik I'm not so sure about.  She has some years in Washington, but seems to have settled back in NY.  Still think she would beat Woolf.  If Doheny and Stefanik are both on the ballot, then that would be the best bet for Woolf.  Even then it wouldn't be a shoo in.

          NY-22 (old and new)

          by elucas730 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:02:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  hmm (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jacques Kallis, jncca

        The picture he has up on his website reminds me of Neil Diamond. Maybe he's more hippie than hipster. Still not the best profile for a marginal seat.

        SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:51:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  The response: (0+ / 0-)

      I am in DC writing this but will forward your request to Aaron's team. We don't start petitions until 3/4/14 and his website is not up yet.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:58:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bridgegate: Kelly and Wildstein joked about (11+ / 0-)

    causing traffic problems in front of a rabbi's house.

    If it wasnt clear, it's pretty clear now that "traffic problems" was a common shorthand used around Christie's office.  

    link

    •  When are we getting the results of the (6+ / 0-)

      traffic study, by the way?

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:44:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  These are unredacted papers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32

      wish they'd prove knowledge on the part of Christie.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:50:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  And Sen. O'Toole is being mentioned (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        as being involved in trying to explain what happened back in November.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:58:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Correction: Partially unredacted (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        Bill Baroni refers to Mayor Sokolich as "Serbia."

        On DW-010, David Wildstein refers to someone called "general" and the rest of the page is redacted.  Could that be David Samson, Chairman of the Port Authority (where he still serves)?

        What's weird is the Rabbi they're teasing is a Christie ally.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:06:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Gardner (8+ / 0-)

    Most have stolen my thunder here but he doesn't strike me as much of an upgrade. He'll raise more money than Buck, sure. And people are saying he comes across better. Great. But he looks really conservative to me for a state with a Democratic edge and a GOP polling bias. But we'll see.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:54:33 AM PST

  •  David Rivera's patsy turns on Rivera: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, lordpet8

    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    Oh Rivera, you were so stupid.  You had to play squeaky-clean to have a good shot at re-election, but instead you try to ratfuck the Dem primary with a nobody against a Democrat with a good name rec amongst the primary electorate AND you funnel 81K of money illegally to him.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:11:39 AM PST

  •  Rep. Ed Pastor retiring (6+ / 0-)

    I'm just seeing this on twitter. link

    NY-03 (Home), NY-23 (College)

    by epez21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:21:17 AM PST

    •  Safe D, of course. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Phoenix is quite Dem and this is in the bluest part.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:23:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Phoenix is not very Democratic (11+ / 0-)

        because of the north end, but this is the south and west part of the city which is and is very Hispanic.

        But obviously Lean R because he only retired because he was afraid of the coming Republican wave.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:28:00 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I meant somewhat (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, benamery21

          Can't seem to find presidential results of the city, but they did elect a Dem mayor in 2011 which was something of a surprise (Hispanic turnout was higher than expected).  They elected a Democratic candidate (non-partisan race) to replace a moderate Republican councilman in an upset: http://swampland.time.com/...

          A group of young people calling themselves “Team Awesome” knocked on 72,000 doors in the city to support Valenzuela’s bid. They increased off-year turnout among the Latino community by 480%, more than delivering Valenzuela’s margin of victory. “There is a ripple effect that has the city and the county and the state of Arizona looking at the way they approach politics,” says Joseph Larios, 29, a community organizer now working with the state Democratic Party who helped Valenzuela develop his strategy. “It’s impossible to say going after low-propensity Latino voters doesn’t matter based on what happened.
          "

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:46:11 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A conservative blog's take on the 2011 elections (0+ / 0-)

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:57:34 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Some back of the envelope math (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, ArkDem14

            Phoenix has 1.5 million people.  Maricopa County has 3.8 million.  Romney won Maricopa by just over 10 points.  The outer suburbs are extremely conservative (as in Romney won them by 20-30 points).  That points to Phoenix itself being fairly Dem-leaning, but not overwhelmingly so.

            Most of the really conservative parts of Maricopa County are their own incorporated cities outside of Phoenix (like Mesa, Chandler, Scottsdale, and Gilbert).

          •  check it out on DRA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            it was actually pretty close. When I went there last month I checked out all the cities we spent time in on DRA. Of them I think El Mirage was the most Democratic, being heavily Hispanic and poor, while most of the others were retirement communities. Phoenix as a whole wasn't too Dem, though.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:15:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  HAHAHA (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MetroGnome

          I get so tired of reading that shit every time a (usually completely-safe) politician retires.

          Stuck in PA-3. Let's defeat "Mike" Kelly and Tom Corbett in 2014!

          by JBraden on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:39:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Well played, James. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          benamery21, James Allen

          Well played. lol

          "Doomed!  DOOOOMED!!!"

    •  Wow, they're dropping like flies. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Pastor has served since 1991.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:43:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  1991 (0+ / 0-)

        I wonder if that's when CD-07 was created and made a Hispanic-majority seat.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:58:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, it wasn't (5+ / 0-)

          Pastor was first elected in a 1991 special election (under the 1980s lines) to replace Mo Udall, who resigned for health reasons.  The district was then numbered the 2nd, and it remained so until 2002 (for most of that time Pastor was the state's only Democratic House member.)  It was renumbered the 4th under the 2000s plan, and now the 7th.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:06:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Mo Udall (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            Mo Udall, of course, was Mark Udall's father, and Tom Udall's uncle.

          •  Mo Udall -- Too Funny to be President (0+ / 0-)

            Also, Stewart Udall's brother, and Randy Udall's father and Levi Udall's son, and John Hunt Udall's nephew and Jesse Udall's nephew.  Members of the dynasty (David King Udall's descendants) have been elected to federal office in 6 western states.

            Levi was a Justice of the AZ Supreme Court from 1946-1960, and the Chief Justice for part of that time.  His brother Jesse served on the court from 1960 to 1972 and was also Chief Justice several times.

            In a hilarious AZ anecdote, Barry Goldwater's father once posted bail for Mo Udall's grandfather, in a perjury trial involving his testimony in a land fraud by Mitt Romney's great-grandfather.  David Udall was convicted but pardoned after serving 3 months in the pen, after the prosecutor and judge both wrote letters to Grover Cleveland on his behalf.

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:33:32 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  it was a major vote sink (0+ / 0-)

          linked the most dem parts of phoenix to the most dem parts of tucson (oddly enough it took in yuma which has been republican for awhile). Even when Bush got 60% in AZ in 88, Dukakis got 55%.

    •  if AZ hadn't gained a new seat (0+ / 0-)

      is it possible Sinema would have run for this seat? A lot of the hispanics don't vote so its possible she could have won a dem primary if she had waited two years

  •  WA-01: DelBene Gets a Republican Challenger (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    His name is Pedro Celis. He used to work for Microsoft, like DelBene, and was actually born in Mexico City before coming here and eventually making his way to Washington. He was involved in Romney's campaign in Washington in 2008. He's got the standard response to things like the minimum wage, government spending, and the ACA, but as the article notes:

    He’s a former chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, a position in which he was frequently quoted in news stories as a supporter of national immigration reform.

    This year, Celis was active in supporting state legislation to authorize college financial aid for students illegally brought to the United States as children. That bill, known as the “Real Hope Act,” was signed into law Wednesday by Gov. Jay Inslee.

    Maybe he'll be one to force DelBene to campaign harder than she might otherwise have done, but given the state's tilt and how well she did in 2010, of all years, I am not particularly worried.

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:28:11 AM PST

  •  Cory Gardner's on-the-record positions (6+ / 0-)

    Consider this list and where Gardner ends up: You can put a checkmark next to his name and every one of these problematic issues for Republicans in 2014:
    X       Personhood supporter
    X       Backed government shutdown
    X       Opposes immigration reform efforts
    X       Opposes in-state tuition for immigrants
    X       Has favored "redefining" definition of rape
    X       Wants to shut down Departments of Energy and Transportation
    X       Has low statewide name ID
    X       Is weak with women and Hispanic voters
     X     Opposes civil unions
     X     Talked favorably about Eastern Colorado Secession
    - See more at: ColoradoPols.com

    Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. - Abe Lincoln

    by RustyCannon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:57:36 AM PST

    •  How is "weak with..." a position? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, LordMike, RustyCannon, gabjoh

      If I am remembering the 2010 race correctly, I'd make the "redefining rape" and civil union (and, by extension, gay marriage) stuff into ads ASAP.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:04:04 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO: I think Buck loses the House primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, itskevin

    then runs again for Senate against Bennet in 2016.

  •  CA-Gov (10+ / 0-)

    Worst kept secret in the world:

    Jerry Brown ‏@JerryBrownGov 8m

    Taking out papers to run for re-election.

    https://twitter.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:29:26 AM PST

  •  Most Republican Names (14+ / 0-)

    Besides Kent at 59.7%:

    Colt - 60.7%
    Hunter - 59.2%
    Colter - 59.2%
    Chip - 58.3%
    Brody - 58.1%
    Kip - 57.6%
    Brock - 57.5%
    Reed - 57.3%
    Trey - 55.3%
    Brooks - 55.1%
    Chandler - 54.7%
    Dawson - 54.3%

    And the big winner: Rhett - 61.8%

    I had way too much fun doing that.

  •  League of Conservation Voters put up ad in FL-13: (0+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...
    Seems pretty good.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:44:36 AM PST

  •  Questions about FL-20 (0+ / 0-)

    Or more specifically, Alcee Hasting's district in general throughout the years.

    What are it's demographics? Has anyone tried to run against Hastings in a primary? What are Hasting's political stances, anyway? He seems to be a Floridian Charlie Rangel, but I could be wrong.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 11:45:55 AM PST

    •  He's far worse than Rangel. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      He was impeached as a judge and somehow got into Congress.  Probably the most corrupt member in the whole body.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:11:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  How has he never been challenged by a local pol? (0+ / 0-)

        It seems like an anti-corruption campaign would be easy to organize against an ultra-corrupt Congressman, especially if it's a pol that matches the demographics of the district.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 02:21:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Urban Black districts tolerate corruption more. (0+ / 0-)

          Rural Black members (the few we have) don't seem to share the same trend (Bishop, Sewell, Artur Davis, Bennie Thompson, Clyburn, so I think it's more of a city voter thing.

          21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

          by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:05:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  South Florida and NYC politics are corrupt (7+ / 0-)

            As are politics in many areas of the United States. It's not a black or white issue or a rural or urban issue (see South Texas).

            And you might want to reread what you said. It comes off as unnecessarily incendiary.

            24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

            by kurykh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:19:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not sure how to phrase it in a less (0+ / 0-)

              incendiary manner.  I added the part about rural Black representatives because I'm not trying to say that all Black members are corrupt or anything of that nature.

              But out of all our Hispanic Caucus urban members I don't think we have any with corruption issues.  Garcia might have some stuff.  And Menendez in the Senate.  But in the House, only possibly Garcia.

              Then look at the Black Caucus.  We've got Conyers with a wife in jail.  Hastings with his unseemly past.  Meeks who has been under investigation.  Rangel who has been censured.  Maxine Waters who is certainly not clean.  And in the not-so-recent past, Laura Richardson, Frank Ballance, Harold Ford and Carolyn Kilpatrick with disgraced last names due to corruption, Jesse Jackson Jr, Bill Jefferson...
              That's a very long list relative to African-American representation in Congress.

              Whether it's due to race or something else, that's impossible to know.  And no, corruption is not a black or white issue in the racial sense, only in the sense that corruption is bad.  But the number of corrupt Black representatives is disproportionately high compared to Whites or Hispanics (who share a similar economic background).  Could be chance, might not be.  I can't say for sure, but I think it's a viable explanation for why Hastings got voted into office and has stuck around.

              21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

              by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:01:32 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Corruption is not confined to Congress (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf, gabjoh, askew

                There's a whole lot of it at the state and local levels. NYC is simple machine politics, and the Queens Democratic boss is Joe Crowley, who is white. The former Brooklyn Democratic boss was Vito Lopez, who is also white. The Staten Island GOP is controlled by Italian-Americans. The South Jersey machine is controlled by George Norcross, who is white. Western Michigan is controlled by a small group of Dutch American Republicans, South Texas by Latino machines. Chicago's Michael Madigan is white. All of these could reasonably be classified as corrupt to some degree.

                There are so many of corrupt politics out there in America. I'm not saying Hastings isn't a sleazebag, but let's not make broad racially tinged statements based on anecdotes.

                24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                by kurykh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:14:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  These are different arguments. (0+ / 0-)

                  There's plenty of corruption among all kinds of people, that's for sure.  If I'm being misinterpreted to make it sound like I don't believe that, then I'll clarify that it's certainly not limited to any one group.

                  However, listing corrupt members of Congress isn't really all that anecdotal.

                  21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                  by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:16:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  This was your argument (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Midwest Leftist
                    Urban Black districts tolerate corruption more
                    You introduced both race and the urban/rural aspect into the conversation that hitherto was confined to Alcee Hastings. This isn't you being misinterpreted. It shouldn't be the fault of the reader that you phrased your ensuing statements this way.

                    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                    by kurykh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:24:23 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Look (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Midwest Leftist

                      It's a good thing that I know you in real life, so I know that what you were trying to say was much more benign than what your words are portraying. But for someone who has been telling off BKGyptian to reread potentially problematic statements, you really need to follow your own advice first.

                      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                      by kurykh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:27:54 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  That wasn't what I was trying to clarify (0+ / 0-)

                        I do think urban Black districts are more accepting of corruption.  It may be true of urban White districts as well but we don't really have those left due to demographic changes.  Machines and all that bad stuff.

                        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                        by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:42:30 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Here is my point (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          wwmiv, Midwest Leftist

                          The "urban black districts are more accepting to corruption" part is because the non-black areas surrounding those districts are just as accepting of corruption. This is a classic conflation of correlation and causation.

                          This "urban black corruption" canard is a dog-whistle stereotype and nothing more.

                          24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

                          by kurykh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 05:53:58 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The Congressional Hispanic Caucus disagrees (0+ / 0-)

                            but really it's up to how one interprets the evidence.  As I said, it's all opinion.

                            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                            politicohen.com
                            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                            by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:22:27 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

          •  This is so incredibly inaccurate (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            CF of Aus, Midwest Leftist

            As you kind of allude to in follow up posts - to your credit, I suppose - the trend is one of urban/rural.

            There is absolutely no connection between corruption and race/ethnicity once you account for the level of urbanization in an area. Black urban areas are no more corrupt than white urban areas. Mexican American urban areas are no more corrupt than black or white urban areas. Black rural areas have the same level of corruption as white rural areas, same with Hispanics. Urbanity breeds corruption, not race or ethnicity. The problem here is that blacks and Hispanics are much more likely to live in urban areas than are whites, so it appears as if blacks and Hispanics have more corrupt officials, which is a racist and ridiculous proposition and I, for one, call on you to apologize unequivocally.

            And I'll also note that this isn't something that is "impossible to know" (borrowing the phrase that you use below).

            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:39:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Not that I'm calling you racist (0+ / 0-)

              Because I know you aren't at all in any way. That doesn't mean that the underlying assumption itself wasn't racially tinged and in a fundamental way discriminatory, because it was.

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:45:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  That's a hilarious mental image (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        of him being impeached by all the House (well, almost; there were three dissenting) and then a few years later he comes and he's their coworker.

        He got 33 percent in a statewide primary for Secretary of State the year after, though, so corrupt or not, he must have some sort of political mojo.

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

        by gabjoh on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:14:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  he beat Lois Frankel in the primary in '92 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      uclabruin18

      I believe he referred to her as a bitch at one point during the race. He's also heavily in debt going back to his impeachment days which means  he's never going to retire because he badly needs the money.

  •  Guess I break the mold when it comes to "Chad" (5+ / 0-)

    Chad:

    57% Republican
    98.9% of names are more Democratic than Chad
    47% have a gun
    58% attend church weekly
    56% have a college degree

    This Chad:
    Democratic (Socialist, far-left variety)
    Never fired a gun, let alone owned one
    Has not been to church in about 20 years, with no intention of ever going again.
    I do have a BSBA degree, so that's the only thing I have in common with most people with my name.

  •  NY-13: A clarification. (4+ / 0-)

    Adriano Espaillat's strength is in the large and very tight knit Dominican community.  The rest of the Latino vote is up for grabs.  And Charles Rangels strength within the Puerto Rican community is what able enabled him to barely hold on last time.

    Probably was posted months ago.  But an interesting link about divisions within the Latino community over the race and just in general.

    http://www.citylimits.org/...

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:05:18 PM PST

  •  I ran through some names I knew would be Dem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    No surprises here.

    Shaquille - 84% Dem (This name exploded when Shaq became a superstar in the NBA)

    Barack - 76.5% Dem

    Tyrone - 84.4% Dem

    Tyrell - 77.9% Dem

    LeBron - 72.1% Dem

    Muhammad - 77.4% Dem

    Willie - 81.8% Dem, meanwhile William is 53.8% Rep

  •  More names (0+ / 0-)

    Virginia (the name) is 53.5% Democratic, which is quite close to Virginia (the state). Austin (the name) is 55.8% Republican, which is obviously very different from Austin (the city). Any particularly interesting or funny name / place comparisons you guys have found?

    •  ok (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao

      Madison is 53.7% GOP. I figured it would be a Dem name (like the place) because it's a name I associate with younger women.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:32:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  "Madison" sounds like a rich white woman (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits

        Not surprised it leans R. Can we find any female names that beat it for Republican-ness?

      •  last names that become first names (0+ / 0-)

        are generally far more Republican than other names, from my experience.  Lots of blue-collar Whites.  The three Madisons I know are all Republican; two are Mormon and one interned for Boehner.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:13:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Although I think that will be changing in time (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, WisJohn

          Madison starting surging up the female baby name charts in the early 90s, and then blasted into the top 10 in 1998 where it remains to this year.  I suspect the vast majority of Madisons in this country are barely old enough to vote.

          As they enter the voting pool, all those young women will surely skew the existing voting demographics of women with that name.

          In 1985, Madison was the 628th most common female baby name that year.  In 1988 it was 300th.  In 1990 203rd.  In 1992 107th.  In 1994 51st.  Then 29th the next year.  Then 15th.  Then 10th.  It peaked at 2nd most common female baby name in 2001, but remains in the top 10 to this day.

          So yeah, it's a very "young" name, and that should change things in the future.  Similar to Sophia which also started to rise in prominence in the mid 90s before shooting up all the way to #1 the past couple years.

          Yeah, I spend much more time on the Social Security Administration baby name website than I should.  It's like crack to stats, lists, and demographics obsessed people like me.

        •  Mormons love the last name to first name thing (0+ / 0-)

          I've known several Jacksons, a Darby, one LeGrande (old guy), two or three Madisons, a Delaney, a Davis, and a few others. All Mormon.

          Oh, and my first name (Ryan) is 52% Republican, apparently.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:51:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Most republican name I found (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145

    Not sure where the thread is in the comments but this was too funny not to post. Tricky is the most republican name I found 68.9% republican.

    •  In fact, Tricky is the MOST REPUBLICAN (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Name in the data base.  100% more republican than registered voters lol

      •  Brigham is also more than 100% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        since it rounds to the nearest 0.1% and most of these names have almost no people there are a few that are more Republican than 100%.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:14:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know anyone named Brigham (0+ / 0-)

          Even living here in Utah. I know a few guys named Nephi, a couple of Josephs, an Alvin or two (Alvin Smith was the near-beatificated older brother of Joseph), and even a Helaman (Book of Mormon figure).

          A lot of the Book of Mormon names are more popular as middle names though.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:55:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  My name is 59.7% D (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, sulthernao

    Makes sense, since it'd probably be restricted to Minnesota.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:31:17 PM PST

  •  Classic Disney names (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, sulthernao, David Jarman

    Donald: 55.1% R
    Daisy: 72.4% D
    Huey: 59.3% D
    Dewey: 53% R
    Louie: 56.5% D
    Scrooge: N/A
    Gladstone: 82.7% D
    Mickey: 52.8% R
    Minnie: 73.1% D
    Goofy: N/A
    Pluto: 59.6%
    Gyro: N/A
    Flintheart: N/A

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:34:44 PM PST

  •  Last names of our early Presidents (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, lordpet8

    Tend to be Democratic, with few exceptions.

    Washington - 76.7% Dem
    Jefferson - 50.5% Dem
    Adams - 65.9% Dem
    Monroe - 62.5% Dem
    Jackson - 52% Dem
    Harrison - 55.6% Dem
    Lincoln - 56.8% Dem

    Madison - 53.7% Rep
    Tyler - 55% Rep

  •  Confirmed - Jesus is a Dem! (11+ / 0-)

    73.8% with that name are Dems.  

    •  Relatively few attend church. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:15:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As are Abraham and Mohammed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      with 68% and about 80% being Democrats, respectively (Mohammed depends on the exact spelling of the name).

      Democrats are clearly the party of religion.

      (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

      by ProudNewEnglander on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:22:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  HI-01 (3+ / 0-)

    This might be the first ideological attack I've seen in the race.

    Commenting on a Merriman River Group poll that found Donna Mercado Kim leading him by 5 points in the open primary, but trailing him by 1 point among Democrats, Mark Takai released a statement:

    "In Hawaii, Republicans are allowed to vote in the Democratic Primary, although historically they show up at the polls in much lower numbers than Democrats,” says a press release from Takai’s campaign. “Donna Kim is leading among conservative voters like herself, who do not share core Democratic values.”
    More of this, please.
  •  Bert Likely a Republican, Ernie Likely a Democrat (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, WisJohn, sulthernao

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:44:56 PM PST

    •  Oscar the Grouch (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, sulthernao

      is even more Democratic than Ernie.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:48:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Numbers: (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, jncca, sulthernao

        Bert: 53.3 percent Republican
        Ernie: 55.4 percent Democratic
        Oscar: 68.9 percent Democratic

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:51:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Our post WWII presidential names (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sulthernao

    Democratic percentages:

    Barack: 76.5%
    William: 46.2 (Bill is  45.3)
    George: 50.2
    Ronald: 47% (Ronnie is 56.4)
    James: 47.1(Jimmy is 53.2)
    Gerald: 47.5(Jerry is 46.3)
    Richard: 46(Dick is 42.1)
    Lyndon: 53.9
    Jonathan: 50.9, John at 46.7, Jack at 44.4
    Dwight: 54.4
    Harry: 49.1

    Ok, it appears JFK's first name isnt actually Jonathan but I put that anyway.

    •  Truman is 54.7 percent Republican (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe they are right about what they've been saying.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:52:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, there are actually 13 registered voters (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alibguy, sulthernao

      with the first name Obama and 82.1% are Dems.

    •  There are 19,846 registered voters (0+ / 0-)

      named Roosevelt, and 88% of them are Democrats, notable since there have been presidents of both parties with that name.  That said, there are probably very few living registered voters born during or soon after Teddy Roosevelt's presidency and named after him, and I bet TR himself would more likely be a Democrat than a Republican if he were around today.

      Fun fact: in the Maryland candidate filings that ended this week, the Republican nominee for state Senator in District 14 is named Franklin Delano Howard.  (However, this district is in Montgomery County and unwinnable for him or his party.)

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:05:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  And the losers (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, jj32

      Thomas: 45.9%
      Adlai: 65.6%
      Barry: 47.7%
      Hubert: 54.9%
      Walter: 51.5%
      Bob: 46.3%
      Albert: 45%

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:18:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Willard is 45.9% (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        Mitt (all 63 of them) is 56.4%.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:31:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  ancient Rome is mostly Dems (8+ / 0-)

    Julius: 67.9%
    Augustus: 64.2%
    Brutus: 68.1%
    Cassius: 73.1%
    Pompey: 67.3%
    Cato: 69.7%
    Marcus: 67.4%
    Claudius: 77.0%
    Nero: 77.0%

    SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:52:22 PM PST

    •  Nobody named Caligula in the database. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian

      What a shame.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:54:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cleopatra is 81%. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:25:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I tried a few celebrities (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sulthernao

    Rihanna 68.3% Democratic (there are 61 voters named Rihanna).

    Madonna 54.3% Democratic (less than I expected and there are actually about 9,000 voters named Madonna.)

    Kesha 83.6% Democratic (not a big surprise) 6,000 people named Kesha, lots more than I expected.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:53:31 PM PST

    •  Madonnas are likely heavily Catholic (0+ / 0-)

      and religious.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:19:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Republican names (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, Gygaxian

    Brigham is 61.7 GOP.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:56:10 PM PST

  •  57.9 percent of Dicks are Republicans. (8+ / 0-)

    Enough said, no?

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:59:18 PM PST

  •  Some name results: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, sulthernao

    Xavier - 75.9% Democratic

    Dick is a surprisingly Republican name, more so than Richard or Rick (which also both skew oddly Republican and oddly religion). 58% of people named Dick are registered Republicans and approximately 59% attend church weekly.

    It was a huge shock to see Jackson at 52% Democratic (I would assumed white southerners would skew this).

    I've found more Republican-skewing female names. Like Sue at 52.5%. Lizzie is a very Democratic name, at 82%.

    Stonewall is nearly 70% registered Democrats (perhaps skewed by dinos? It's a very small sample), because cliched antebellum names like Beauregard.

    I've found some Republican female names:

    Laura Beth (60%)
    Christy 51.5%

    Jamal for men is the at 84%, Kareem at 86%.

    What are the results for the most random names you can think of? For me, the fun ones were:

    Niagara - 81% dem
    Renfrew - 51% Republican
    Lennon - 71% Dem
    Lenin - 76% Dem
    Stalin - 80% Dem
    Nikita - 77% Dem
    Helm - 53% Dem
    Aragorn - 60% Dem (The Democratic party has a firm grip on the heir of Elendil demographic).
    Faulkner - 64% Dem
    Gravity- 65% Dem
    Light - 69% Dem
    But Dark is also mostly a Democratic constituency - 75% Dem
    Even Dim is a narrowly Democratic group at 53%, as is Twilight at 63% and similar numbers exist for Sunrise, Sunset and Night.

    Democrats also have a tight grip on the Roman and Byzantine emperors; Claudius, Justinian, Tiberius, Hadrian, Nero, Theodosius, Titus, Nerva, and Trajan. God I've had way too much fun entering in ridiculous names and wasting time. It's interesting that weird names tend to uniformly be, in their small small numbers, very Democratic.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 12:59:32 PM PST

  •  Tried the Simpsons (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, jj32, jncca, Possible Liberal

    Bart got 58.9% Republican
    Homer 51.3% Republican
    Lisa 53.1% Democratic
    Marge 52.8% Democratic

    Funnily enough, Maggie got 65.9% Democratic

    And Flanders got 73.9% Democratic. Would never have predicted that.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

    by Alibguy on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:04:00 PM PST

  •  Most Republican Women's Name (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sulthernao, jj32

    We have a new record -- "Utahna", at 56% exactly (small sample size, though).

    Anybody beat that?

  •  Politburo names (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bjssp

    Marx 64.2% Dem
    Stalin 80.4
    Lenin 76.1
    Nikita 78.6
    Vladimir 59.7
    Robeson 68.8

    Groucho 65.8
    Harpo 44.0
    Chico 76.8
    Zeppo and Gummo 0

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:19:49 PM PST

  •  Delonte is 90% Democratic (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje, James Allen, gabjoh

    If you want to find the most Democratic names, you got to know your hood names and Delonte is straight up hood.

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:25:29 PM PST

  •  Golden Girls, Seinfeld, and Frasier (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sacman701, WisJohn, jj32

    Blanche: 59.5
    Dorothy: 56.3
    Rose: 61
    Sophia: 69.4

    All Democratic!

    Jerry: 53.7 Republican
    Elaine: 55.1 Democratic
    George: 50.2 Democratic
    Kramer: 54.8 Republican
    Cosmo: 55.6 Democratic
    Newman: 53.9 Democratic
    Delores: 63.9 Democratic
    Estelle: 65.4 Democratic
    Frank: 51.1 Democratic
    Bania: 60.78 Democratic

    Frasier: 55.8 Democratic
    FRAISER (sic): 77.9 Democratic
    Niles: 50 percent Democratic, 50 percent Republican
    Martin: 56.8 percent Democratic
    Daphne: 66.5 Democratic
    Rosalinda: 72.6 Democratic
    Roz: 61.1 Democratic

    "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:28:31 PM PST

    •  Game of Thrones (0+ / 0-)

      Ned 52.5% R
      Catelyn 53.6% R
      Robb 55.2% R
      Sansa 50.1% D (only 23 of them, how can it be 50.1%?)
      Arya 70.6% D (544 of those)
      Brandon 51.7% D
      Jon 56.6% R

      Tywin 78.7% D (only 11, % can't be right)
      Jaime 65.1% D (mix of Hispanic men and gringo women)
      Tyrion 85.0% D (only 15, % can't be right)

      Sorry, no Rickons or Cerseis in the database.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:47:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bania's first name (0+ / 0-)

      Is Kenny.

      •  Oh, I know. I just can't believe there's someone (0+ / 0-)

        named Bania. Multiple people, actually. What kind of name is that?

        "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:56:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-Gov (7+ / 0-)

    Andrew Cuomo to State Senate Republicans: Friends don't let friends let Rob Astorino run for governor.

    Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, is taking the unusual step of involving himself in the selection of his challenger, telling some top Republicans that they should be leery of nominating Rob Astorino, the Westchester County executive, who is expected to announce his candidacy soon.

    [...] A third explanation, however, is full of palace intrigue: A number of people who have spoken to Mr. Cuomo say he also has expressed his desire to ensure that his eventual opponent is not far to the right on social issues. This, he has argued, could alienate moderate Republicans and other voters so much that Republican candidates for the State Senate could suffer too, potentially costing Republicans control of the chamber.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:29:17 PM PST

  •  South Park (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, sacman701

    Eric: 52.4% D
    Kyle: 45.8% D
    Stan: 46.5% D
    Kenny: 56.7% D
    No Butters, unfortunately

    Others:
    Token (!); 60.1% D
    Herbert (Garrison): 53% D
    Randy and Sharon (Marsh): 45.8% D and 53.7% D
    Sheila and Gerald (Broflovsky): 58.4% D and 47.5% D
    Clyde: 51.9% D
    Timmy: 53.3% D

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:31:22 PM PST

  •  The Jeffersons (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, jj32, LordMike

    George 50% Dem
    Louise 57% Dem
    Florence 58% Dem
    Tom 51% Rep
    Helen 55% Dem
    Lionel 71% Dem
    Jenny 57% Dem
    Harry 50% Rep
    Olivia 64% Dem

    27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:32:52 PM PST

  •  Weston (Wamp) is 58.9% R (0+ / 0-)

    Any Republican candidates/members with a name more Republican than that?

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:36:16 PM PST

    •  For the Dems, the most GOP name is probably (0+ / 0-)

      Clay at 58.4% GOP.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:45:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  All in the Family (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, JGibson

    Archie (Archibald) 59.2% D and 54.2% D
    Edith 58.4% D
    Gloria 66.1% D
    Michael (Mike) 51.4% R and 50.5 R

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:38:55 PM PST

  •  Supreme Court Justices (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Democratic percentages

    John 53.5
    Antonin 58.5
    Samuel 55.8
    Sonia 71.7
    Elena 64.8
    Stephen 45.3
    Ruth  53.5
    Clarence 60.1
    Anthony 57.4

    If only this reflected an 8-1 Dem split. :)

    And some first and last names of famous past SCOTUS justices

    Sandra- 54.7
    Warren- 51.5
    Felix- 70.6
    Oliver- 61.5
    Taft- 64.6
    Marshall- 52
    Marbury- 40.6
    Taney- 58
    Thurgood- 90.7

    I think LBJ predicted a lot of African American babies would be named Thurgood after his appointment to SCOTUS, but Social Security data indicated there wasnt a huge increase.

  •  Ayn Rand, Upton Sinclair (0+ / 0-)

    Democratic %
    Ayn: 61.5 (!!!!)
    Rand: 44.1
    Upton: 62.1
    Sinclair: 73.7

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 01:43:26 PM PST

  •  I win (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, jncca, sulthernao

    Tagg is 69.6% Republican, which I think breaks the record.

    Taggart is only 56.7% Republican.

  •  Am I the only one who think Kingston ad was a dud? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Jorge Harris

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 02:28:19 PM PST

    •  It took me back (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin

      to shopping at Zayre with my parents in the 1970s and 80s.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 02:40:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Zayre! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        You just took me back, too.

      •  Don't forget to pick up the new Pac Man... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        uclabruin18

        ...for the Atari 2600. I hear that it's really good!!! with games like that and E.T., Atari has a bright future ahead!  ;-)

        I loved Zayre... and Gold Circle... and U.S. Merchandise.  Don't forget the Best Catalog store!!  The Best catalog was like the amazon.com of the 1980's!

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:02:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Don't forget (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Asteroids!

        •  I remember Best (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          but not Gold Circle or US Merchandise (we did have Service Merchandise, but I mostly remember shopping there in the early 1990s.)   In the 1980s there was also Bradlees, at least in the northeast and mid-Atlantic.

          My family got its first Atari 2600, with Pac-Man, at the JC Penney in Springfield Mall in Virginia in early 1983 (that store remains open as the mall itself is not, transitioning to Springfield Town Center.)  We didn't get ET, which according to Uncle John's Bathroom Reader pretty much killed the 2600 (I reacquainted myself with that while sitting on the toilet last week.)

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:47:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  There's a top DKos rec'd diary (0+ / 0-)

    about the preliminary investigation results of the LePage administration's handling of unemployment. It's pretty incendiary and does not make LePage look any better.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 02:37:25 PM PST

  •  Some surprisingly Democratic names (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jncca

    These are names I figured would be much less Democratic.  I suspect many are southern DINOS though.

    Jimbo - 52.8% Dem
    Jimbob - 50.1% Dem
    Skeeter- 47.3% Dem
    Skeet - 42.1% Dem
    Beauregard - 59.3% Dem
    Robert Edward - 46.7% Dem

  •  Names (0+ / 0-)

    Hunter is 59.2% R

    Darnell is 85.1& D

    Those are the highest I've found on my own.

  •  I'll jump in with the names: Justified (0+ / 0-)

    Raylan: 57.6 D
    Boyd: 59.2 R
    Ava: 64.7 D
    Art: 54.3 D
    Tim: 54.5 R
    Rachel: 54.8 D
    Winona: 57.8 D
    Wynn: 54 R
    Arlo: 52.3 R
    Helen: 55.8 D
    Nicky: 52.4 D
    Dewey: 53 R

    And Walton (Goggins, who plays Boyd Crowder): 54 R!

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:11:43 PM PST

  •  MI-SEN: Land backs off full repeal of ACA (11+ / 0-)

    applauds Snyder for Medicaid expansion.

    link

    Will be interesting to see how many voters buy this. I've always thought the main problem Obamacare poses for GOP is that it's a very conservative way to get to universal coverage. So substantively there isnt a lot to criticize in terms of the coverage provisions, but they have painted it as a marxist government takeover of healthcare.  

    •  lol! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, itskevin, James Allen

      It's so funny to see her flailing on the important issues of the day.  Peters is fairly clear on his policy points, but Land is practically running away from the media during her race.  When Dave Agema became an issue, she was one of the very last Republicans to take a side.  

      This is all going to become even more apparent when the media actually starts chasing her down to get answers to questions.  So far, she hasn't had much of anything to say.  It's why I really have no fear of this being competitive in the end.  It's polling so close because it's an open seat with a relatively unknown Dem and a significantly better know Republican candidate.  You start getting down to actual policy and ideology, and it starts seperating her out of the race.

      •  TPM reports now she's flip flopping back... (7+ / 0-)

        ...to full repeal.  All in one day!!!

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:03:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Really! <Facepalm> n/t (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ChadmanFL
        •  Heh, again? (0+ / 0-)

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:29:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't see the link to that. where? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:30:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Objects in mirror are not as close as they appear (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, LordMike, James Allen

          That's what springs to mind when I think of MI-Sen.  These polling showing it neck and neck in the 40's or Land with a small lead are very misleading.  My guess is in the end this one ends up being fools gold for the GOP, as it usually is and Peters wins by somewhere between 53-47 and 56-44.

          •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            On paper Land is a strong candidate, but something just smells fishy about her - the NRSC not backing her and so forth. Besides, this is Michigan. It's true that Democratic states can and will elect Republican governors, but as a general rule since 2006/2008, if you vote Democrat at the Presidential level, then you're pretty damn unlikely to vote Republican at the Senate or Congressional level. Michigan is a solid-blue state at the presidential level, so I'm not worried about its senate race at all.

            I'm still deciding whether to put it at Safe D or Likely D. I'll likely put it at Likely D just to be safe, since I'd really rather not have any surprises in states I called "Safe", barring a huge change in the circumstances of the race like a candidate dying or being caught with a dead girl, live boy, or Edwin Edwards.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

            by Le Champignon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:58:24 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Land has ethics issues, nt (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:11:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  As you may know (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              I'm really bullish on my state, but I don't think I'd ever put it as Safe D.  In my mind, there ar probably only half-a-dozen truly "safe" D states in the entire country.  To me "safe" D or R means a state in which a candidate could be caught in a legitimate scandal in the middle of their campaign and still not have to work that hard to win.

              This is definitely a likely D, though.  Not a lean, if only because of the political demographics of the state.

              BTW, for anyone that wants to know, the state party chair and party executive are concentrated on the governor's race of turning out the million identified Democratic voters who failed to vote in 2010.  Apparently, they working with Obama's data and software from either his first or second race, I can't remember which one.  This seems like it's going to be very methodical and data-intensive, whereas 2010 was a complete shot in the dark and relying on hope that Dems would turn out like they had been.

              I'm starting to feel better about both of these races.  Pam Byrnes was also endorsed by the UAW down in MI-07, yesterday, which is going to be huge for organizing in Eaton County where a lot of auto-related jobs are located.  They may have taken their lumps, lately, but at a district level, I feel that have a lot of power, still.

          •  Yep (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, James Allen

            We can't expect the 20-point drubbings Republican challengers get from Democratic incumbents here in Michigan, but at the end of the day, this is still a solidly blue state at the federal level.  I think it may end up being about a 10-pint spread when the votes are counted.  

  •  IL-HD-39 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, gabjoh, sulthernao, GloFish

    Democratic Illinois State Representative Toni Berrios, desperately trying to fend off a primary challenge from progressive activist Will Guzzardi, is now resorting to dirty tricks.

    Also, Democratic State Senator Willie Delgado has endorsed Guzzardi (it's very rare in Illinois for Democratic elected officials to support a primary challenger over a Democratic incumbent).

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 03:31:15 PM PST

  •  Filing Period Closes Friday in NC (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacob1145, ChadmanFL

    With one day to go before filing closes, NC Democrats have some work to do. For the 13 congressional races, there is at least one Democrat running in 12 of 13, with NC-9 in Charlotte the only one without a Democratic candidate yet.

    For NC House and Senate, gerrymandering has apparently put most seats out of reach for one party or the other. Only 63 of 170 total legislative seats (37%) are contested by both parties.

    In the NC Senate, where Republicans hold 33 of 50 seats, 23 seats are contested by both Democrats and Republicans, 10 seats have unopposed Democrats, and 16 have unopposed Republicans. 1 seat has no candidates yet. Dems would have to win 16 of the 23 contested seats (70%) to win back the majority.

    In the NC House, where Republicans hold 77 of 120 seats, only 40 seats are contested by both Democrats and Republicans, 31 seats have unopposed Democrats, and 49 seats have unopposed Republicans. Dems would have to win 30  of the 40 contested seats (75%) to win back the majority.

    http://www.ncsbe.gov/...

    http://www.ncsbe.gov/...

    I hope a bunch of Democratic candidates decided to wait until the last day to file. We'll see tomorrow.

    Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

    by bear83 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:29:08 PM PST

  •  FL-13: Sink doubles up on Jolly (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.tampabay.com/...

    I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch, but I like where we are in this race. And it's fitting that someone like Alex Sink is going to replace Bill Young who was a terrible human being, as we found out the things he did after his death. Had he died earlier I don't know if we would had win this seat. So timing was everything here.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 04:35:06 PM PST

    •  Many people had no idea about his first wife. (0+ / 0-)

      Most voters were not around then because some are retirees. I didn't know about him and I have been in the Tampa area for 20 years. My husbands family had been here since the 1960's but they never said anything about it.  The area around here is not as red as it was when I first came here.  But that scandal was kept under the table

      Sink is going to do well.  I am glad to see her go to Congress.  She carried the district with a higher percentage then Obama did.  She carried the district when she lost the governor's race.  She is very well liked and respected.  

      I am not in her district so I will be glad when it is over with.  Jolly has been running adds on a Sarasota TV stations the last week.  I am tired already of political adds.   The 2014 season really hasn't got going yet.  

  •  Duck Dynasty Names: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jncca, ChadmanFL, sacman701

    Robertson Men:
    Alan: 52.%  GOP
    Jase: 54.4% GOP/Jason (the real name of Jase): 51.8% GOP.
    Jep: 50.9% GOP/Jules (the real name of Jep): 61.9% Dem.
    Phil: 51.8% GOP
    Si: 61.3% Dem/Silas (the real name of Uncle Si): 60.3% Dem
    Willie: 81.8% Dem

    Robertson Women:
    *Christine (Si): 54.2% Dem
    Jessica (Jep): 57.8% Dem
    Kay (Phil): 53.4% GOP
    Korie (Willie): 56.8% Dem
    Lisa (Alan): 53.1% Dem
    Missy (Jase): 50.8% GOP

    Robertson Children:
    John Luke (Willlie and Korie): 55% Dem
    Sadie (Willie and Korie): 66.8% Dem
    Bella (Willie and Korie): 65.5% Dem
    Will (Willie and Korie): 58.9% Dem
    Rebecca (Willie and Korie): 50.9% Dem
    Reed (Jase and Missy): 57.3% GOP
    Cole (Jase and Missy): 56.7% GOP
    Mia (Jase and Missy): 71.1% Dem
    Lily (Jep and Jessica): 63.8% Dem
    Merritt (Jep and Jessica): 53.1% GOP
    Priscilla (Jep and Jessica): 62.9% Dem
    River (Jep and Jessica): 61.1% Dem

    Non-Robertsons:
    John [Godwin]: 53.3% GOP
    Justin [Martin]: 50.9% GOP

  •  NC-02: Oh great, another Holding in Congress? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, benamery21, James Allen

    Robert Holding, brother of Rep. George Holding (R-13th) is considering a primary challenge to Rep. Renee Ellmers.  Holding  is personally wealthy and would write himself a $1 million check if he ran, and says he has the endorsement of former US Senator Lauch Faircloth (R), who is from the area.  The only thing Holding has going against him is that he lives slightly outside of the district.  But with that kind of money he could pose a threat to Ellmers.

    Sorry for the paywall.

    George Holding is a freshman Congressman but has been named the second most conservative member of Congress by the National Journal.  Disappointing, as he represents a district that is on the verge of being swingy - it voted for some Democrats downballot in 2012 and passed Amendment One by a significantly smaller margin than the state in 2012 (53-47).

  •  The thinnest of tea leaves in Mississippi (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, LordMike, lordpet8, James Allen

    Military blogger/author Susan Katz Keating claims today she has heard rumors that Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus -- the former governor of Mississippi -- may quit his post at the Pentagon. Keating doesn't connect this to the Senate race, but there's a telling quote here, if this information is actually true. Story here.

    According to the source, Mabus - who reportedly has been seen less and less inside "the building" - is looking for a job that is "more obviously politics, less obviously military."
    Keating's "source" seems to think this could mean a State Department posting, but the timing is awfully curious, considering filing for the Senate race closes on Saturday and ArkDem mentioned that Mabus has been discussed as a possible candidate.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:29:03 PM PST

    •  I wonder if he'd have any strength (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, jncca, lordpet8

      He seems a lot like Musgrove at this point - former Dem governor, served one term and was promptly ousted, hasn't done much in the way of politics since. He did win statewide, but it was for a statewide post, and we all know how ticket-splitting works.

      I still think Childers or Taylor would be our best get, and since Taylor isn't running, that just leaves Childers.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:49:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Basque names :) (4+ / 0-)

    First the names under 200 registered voters. This number is about right for the Basque American community.

    81.6 D Aroa (female)
    79.8 D Laia (female)
    79.7 D Estibaliz (female)
    78.9 D Enara (female)
    77.6 D Unai (male)
    75.7 D Arantza (female)
    75.5 D Iban (male)
    74.1 D Nahia (female)
    73.2 D Maider (female)
    71.7 D Ainara (female)
    70.7 D Xabier (male)
    70.3 D Julen (male)
    70.3 D Kepa (male)
    69.4 D Josu (male)
    69.3 D Arantxa (female)
    67.9 D Aitor (male)
    67.1 D Gorka (male)
    66.8 D Begoña (Begona) (female)
    66.2 D Mireia (female)
    66.0 D Iñigo (Inigo) (male)
    65.5 D Iker (male)
    65.5 D Amaia (female)
    65.5 D Asier (male)
    64.7 D Idoia (female)
    64.5 D Naiara (female)
    64.1 D Gaizka (male)
    64.0 D Izar (female)
    63.8 D Leire (female)
    62.9 D Ainhoa (female)
    62.6 D Ander (male)
    62.6 D Imanol (male)
    61.6 D Nerea (female)
    61.4 D Itziar (female)
    60.3 D Aritz (male)
    59.9 D Eider (female)
    59.6 D Nekane (female)
    59.0 D Miren (female)
    58.1 D Iñaki (Inaki) (male)
    56.9 D Aimar (male)
    56.2 D Andoni (male)
    55.9 D Joseba (male)
    54.5 D Beñat (Benat) (male)
    53.8 D Lur (female)
    52.3 D Patxi (male)

    No results for Unax (male), Iraia (female), Itziar (female), Nagore (female), Oier (male), Ekaitz (male), Irati (female), Naroa (female), Haizea (female), Ibai (male), Iratxe (female), Ohiane (female), Amets (male), Saioa (female), Maialen (female), Aiala (female), Maitane (female), Irune (female), Olaia (female), Olatz (female), Urko (male), Zuriñe (female), Hodei (male), Egoitz (male), Aitziber (female), Endika (male), Alazne (female), Aintzane (female), Koldo (male), Harkaitz (male), Peio (male), Eukene (female), Garikoitz (male), Arrate (female), Aingeru (male), Mirari (female), Jaione (female), Igone (female), Agurtzane (female), Edorta (male), Zigor (male), Karmele (female), Bittor (male), Txomin (male), Mertxe (female), Izaro (female)...

    And finally the names that the Basque American community surely share with other communities:

    73.3 D Maia (female) 3756 registered voters
    72.3 D Joana (female) 5173 registered voters
    69.7 D Lander (male) 403 registered voters
    64.1 D Maite (female) 1123 registered voters
    64.1 D Lorea (female) 251 registered voters
    59.9 D Ane (female) 488 registered voters
    57.7 D Igor (male) 11063 registered voters
    54.1 D Anne (female) 306758 registered voters
    52.5 D Jone (female) 1036 registered voters
    49.9 D Mikel (male) 6919 registered voters
    43.4 D Jon (male) 163668 registered voters

    It would be very interesting for me if someone know about other communities using just this names of the last list.

  •  MS-SEN: Democratic candidate to file tomorrow (9+ / 0-)

    Cottonmouth has posted that the mystery Democratic candidate will be filing to run for Senate tomorrow.

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:49:47 PM PST

  •  You people are amazing (13+ / 0-)

    This "names" crap is weekend open thread material.  It's taken up most of the thread on a Thursday!

    We all need other hobbies.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 06:58:15 PM PST

  •  Chad Taylor will run for Senate (13+ / 0-)

    He plans to announce tomorrow, according to multiple reports. Story here.

    And here's his campaign website.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:20:58 PM PST

    •  Excellent (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, LordMike, JBraden

      Not good odds at all, but with a weakened Republican field (eternally out of town Roberts or Milton Wolf's lampooning gun death x-rays), it's as good a time as he could hope.  Also, it helps to get Dems out to vote.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:27:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You just never really know (5+ / 0-)

        This will probably be a 20-point race, but you just never know. Kansas isn't that much more conservative than North Dakota, and we won there in 2012 without even an Akin-style scandal. The Republicans here are very weak and erratic -- so it's good to have a credible Democrat in the race, just in case something breaks loose.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:31:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well in fairness they aren't comparable (4+ / 0-)

          North Dakota might not be much less conservative than Kansas but ND has long had no problem electing Dems to the Senate.  Kansas has not had a Democratic Senator since 1939.

          The last Senate race I can recall that was remotely competitive was 1996 when Brownback beat Docking by 10 points.

          Not saying it's an impossible race, but pretty close.

          •  There's really no downside to this race for us. (5+ / 0-)

            Like with MS, it's all upside. The only possibly bad thing is that a strong potential candidate for the future loses and is then tarnished by that, but it'd have to be a trainwreck of a candidacy for that to happen, I think.

            "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:14:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Good (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, LordMike, jncca

      I can't find it within myself to move it to Likely-R, but it's definitely in Race to Watch territory.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D)

      by Le Champignon on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 07:41:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Now we're cooking... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL, LordMike

      Come on, Milton Wolf, do your part.

      "Once, at a formal dinner, when [a rich] guest complained about the cost of welfare programs for the poor, Buffett replied tartly, 'I'm a lot more concerned about welfare for the rich.'"--from a book on Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:05:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Charlie Cook race rating changes (0+ / 0-)

    WI-Gov I agree with, though I've always had it at Leans R.  Kansas I'd call Lean R at this point.  Brownback has an edge purely because of the nature of the state, but he's in trouble.  Colorado I'd consider somewhere between Lean and Likely D, but I don't why so many think Gardner in the race moved the needle against us.

    WI-Gov: Likely R -> Lean R
    KS-Gov: Solid R -> Likely R
    CO-Sen: Likely D -> Lean D

  •  Found a ABC News report of the 20 whitest names (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JacobNC, James Allen

    Here are the 20 whitest male names according to that report with their party affiliation.  Only 4 of them are Dem majority with Tanner being the most heavily Rep and Maxwell the most Dem heavy.

    Jake - 51.7% Rep
    Connor - 54.8% Rep
    Tanner - 60.8% Rep
    Wyatt - 54.4% Rep
    Cody - 56.7% Rep
    Dustin - 55.7% Rep
    Luke - 55.2% Rep
    Jack - 55.6% Rep
    Scott - 57.2% Rep
    Logan - 55.2% Rep
    Cole - 56.7% Rep
    Lucas - 50.8% Dem
    Bradley - 59.3% Rep
    Jacob - 52.9% Rep
    Garrett - 56.2% Rep (I actually have a black family friend with this name)
    Dylan - 52.3% Dem
    Maxwell - 57.1% Dem
    Hunter - 59.2% Rep
    Brett - 56.6% Rep
    Colin - 53.7% Dem

    Of the 20 whitest female names only Katelyn and Kathryn are republican majority.

    •  Huh (0+ / 0-)

      The only Brett I know is Black.

      21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

      by jncca on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:59:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Female R first names (0+ / 0-)

    Jenni (50.3% R)
    Kathryn (50.5% R)
    Sue Ann (50.6% R)
    Britt (51.0% R)
    Shelby (51.3% R)
    Kelli (51.5% R)
    Lori (52.2% R)
    Hailey (52.3% R)
    Sue (52.5% R)
    Leigh (52.6% R)
    LeAnn (53.1% R)
    Patti (53.2% R)
    Kay (53.4% R)

    If you find any others, let me know

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 08:57:45 PM PST

  •  Hungary 2014 elections are on April 6th (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, ehstronghold, JGibson

    There will be absolutely no drama with regards to the winner.  The right-wing, but not extremist Fidesz Party has in place a strong gerrymander to ensure they don't lose power anytime soon and they're polling in the 45-50% range.  The center-left seems to be getting it's act back together, polling at around 30%.  They should make decent, but not overwhelming gains.

    The wild card and potential trouble lies with the far-right, fascist Jobbik Party.  This is the 3rd largest party in Hungary.  They are polling in the 12-20% range and generally it seems far-right parties in Europe tend to outperform polls.  Jobbik is ultra nationalistic, anti immigrant, homophobic and very anti-semitic.  A Jobbik leader actually urged the Hungarian government to draw up "lists of dangerous Jews" a few years ago and many members have expressed a desire to rid Hungary of Jews.  We can only hope they don't gain anymore power  with this election.

  •  Robert Reich for President? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, LordMike, MetroGnome

    He's apparently considering running for president, although he didn't specify which party's nomination he'd try to run for (if any).

    There are three natural adversaries of the progressive movement: Republicans, the Democratic establishment, and the mainstream media

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 09:51:02 PM PST

  •  I'm wasting way too much time on this... (4+ / 0-)

    Doctor 76.1% D
    Clara 61% D
    Amy 50.5% D
    Rory 53.5% D
    Donna 50.4% D
    Wilf 53.4% D
    Martha 58.6% D
    Jack 55.6% R
    Mickey 52.8% R
    Rose 61% D
    Sarah Jane 51.5% D
    Master 78.8% D

  •  Smile is like 80% Democratic (0+ / 0-)

    Love & Kiss are also. Hug, though, is Republican.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Feb 27, 2014 at 10:51:05 PM PST

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