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10:03 AM PT: AR-Sen: Like a scam artist who tries to make himself "judgment proof" by turning over all his assets to his wife, Americans for Prosperity has figured out a way to avoid getting fact-checked: don't offer any facts. Their latest ad, attacking Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor in Arkansas, is an extraordinary exercise in nihilism, featuring Jerry, a trucking company owner who would rather film TV ads than take time to learn about his health insurance situation:

We got a letter telling us that we were gonna be—you know, our current policy was gonna be cancelled. Even though I've seen reports where our insurance commissioner's granted another two-year extension, we've yet to receive anything telling us that we're gonna be extended.

It's like living in a haze. You don't know whether you're gonna have insurance, or whether you're gonna be able to afford your insurance. It was taken away from us. Or it was given back to us. Or it was taken ... we don't know what it's been now!

That's just brilliant. AFP got body slammed for their last Obamacare horror story ad in Arkansas, after reporters pointed out that no plans had been cancelled, thanks to a waiver issued by the state's Insurance Department that grandfathered in existing policies until 2017.

So how does AFP respond? By finding a guy who, in spite of his exposure to the facts, insists he's still confused about his situation. You can't fact-check confusion! And there probably are plenty of Arkansans out there who are facing genuine uncertainty and don't have access to good information, so this ad may be effective in reaching such people.

But of course, a key reason why lots of folks are unsure of their health insurance options is the misinformation peddled by the likes of Americans for Prosperity. Sow confusion, then complain about the confusion. It's a plan worthy of an evil genius. And considering the Koch brothers are spending another $540,000 on this ad, they must be convinced that it's working.

10:20 AM PT: MS-04: If you want to get a sense of how former Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor is campaigning these days as a Republican, reporter Paul Hampton offers a good place to start. Taylor is hammering Rep. Steven Palazzo on straight-up pork barrel grounds, arguing that federal funds have been crucial to Mississippi in so many ways, particularly with regard to storm recovery. (Palazzo infamously resisted voting for aid after Hurricane Sandy, even though his district had been pummeled by Katrina, and only relented after tremendous pressure.)

Taylor's also following a more traditional GOP playbook, attacking Palazzo for voting "with Nancy Pelosi to cut billions from the military budget," nut keeping federal dollars flowing seems to be his main thrust. And while Taylor is certainly right about how important that money is to his state, his real test will be whether he can make this case to Republican primary voters. At the campaign event in Biloxi that Hampton describes, Taylor was greeted enthusiastically, but the ballot box is a different place altogether.

10:49 AM PT (Darth Jeff): New Jersey: Filing closed for the state's June 3 primary. An unofficial candidate list is available here.

Democratic Sen. Cory Booker won a special election for his seat in October of 2013, and should have no problem winning a full term this year. Booker has no primary opposition, and Daily Kos Elections rates the seat as Safe Democratic. However, one of Booker's four Republican foes does have an interesting past. Jeff Bell narrowly unseated Sen. Clifford Case in the 1978 Republican primary, then proceeded to lose the general election to Bill Bradley by 12 points. Since Case's defeat, no Republican has been elected to the Senate from New Jersey.

Three of the Garden State's House members are retiring. In the heavily Democratic first district, state Sen. Donald Norcross is the overwhelming favorite to replace former Rep. Rob Andrews. Norcross hails from a very powerful family and should have little trouble against Logan Mayor Frank Minor in the Democratic primary. Over in the twelfth district, things are less predictable. Four Democrats are competing to succeed Rush Holt: Assemblymembers Upendra Chivukula and Bonnie Watson Coleman; state Sen. Linda Greenstein; and physicist Andrew Zwicker. We rate both seats as Safe Democratic.

Over in the third district, Republican Rep. Jon Runyan's departure has created a competitive contest in a swingy seat. On the Republican side 2013 Senate nominee Steve Lonegan faces former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur. Democrats would prefer to face the unpredictable Lonegan, which is why the Republican establishment has largely consolidated behind MacArthur. On the Democratic side, Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard is expected to be the nominee. The district voted for Obama 52-47 but is very ancestrally Republican. We rate the general election as Leans Republican.  

Most of the House members seeking reelection have little to worry about in either their primaries or in the general election. One potential exception is second district Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo. The incumbent represents a district Obama won 54-45 and Democrats are fielding Bill Hughes Jr, an attorney and the son of former Rep. Bill Hughes. However, LoBiondo appears to be entrenched in this seat and will be tough to beat. We rate the general election as Likely Republican.

11:20 AM PT: RI-01: Former state Rep. John Loughlin, who lost to Democrat David Cicilline by 6 points in 2010 in an open-seat race for Rhode Island's 1st District, says he's thinking about trying again. Loughlin obviously couldn't get it done during a massive GOP wave, but following that election, tons of information came out exposing Cicilline's financial mismanagement of the city of Providence, where he had served as mayor prying to running for Congress.

However, it wasn't enough to help highly touted former state police chief Brendan Doherty unseat Cicilline in 2012, and scandals generally fade in importance as they recede in time. What's more, Rhode Island Democrats gave Cicilline a boost in redistricting, so Loughlin would have a pretty tough time making this contest competitive.

11:40 AM PT: CO-05: Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn has decided to once again challenge GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn, but the last time he tried to, things didn't go so well. Rayburn sought this seat when it became open in 2006 but finished third in the Republican primary, behind Lamborn and radio host Jeff Crank. Lamborn, a Club for Growth vessel, won with just 27 percent and was absolutely despised even by members of his own party, leading both Crank and Rayburn to oppose him once more just two years later.

Crank and Rayburn weren't dummies, at least not initially, because they knew they might split the anti-incumbent vote and let Lamborn survive. So they came up with an interesting agreement: They'd jointly conduct a poll of the primary, and the weaker of the two would drop out. Rayburn, it turned out, drew the short straw, only he refused to jump. Instead, he stayed in the race and Lamborn predictably snuck through, winning a mere 44 percent of the vote. Whoops.

At this point, Lamborn may just be too entrenched to be vulnerable. Last cycle, he faced a well-financed challenge from self-funding businessman Robert Blaha, who still lost, 62-38. If Rayburn had really wanted Lamborn gone, he should have stuck with the deal he made six years ago.

12:07 PM PT: MI-04: Following GOP Rep. Dave Camp's retirement announcement, the Detroit Free Press plays Great Mentioner with potential replacements. Given the red-leaning nature of Michigan's 4th District, most of the names cropping up are on the Republican side. Chief among them is state Sen. John Moolenaar, but others include state Sen. Roger Kahn, state Rep. Kevin Cotter, state Rep. Jim Stamas, and former state Rep. Tony Stamas. (The two Stamases are brothers.) The Detroit News tosses in one more, former state Sen. Alan Cropsey.

And while Democrats are unlikely to make a serious play for this seat, the Freep does cite three possibilities: former Rep. Jim Barcia, Bay County Executive Tom Hickner, and former state Rep. Joel Sheltrown. Barcia used to represent the old 5th District in the 1990s but was a redistricting victim in the 2002 cycle and, in an interesting move, later served as a state senator. However, his old seat bears almost no resemblance to the present-day 4th.

1:01 PM PT: MI-08: So Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, who originally said he "intends" to continue serving in his present post, now admits that he's "considering" a bid for retiring Rep. Mike Rogers' House seat. (This is a good lesson as to why you can never trust a politician who uses the word "plans" or "intends." Plans change!) The thing is, Bernero really may be better off staying put.

In 2010, when Bernero ran for governor, he got absolutely crushed by Republican Rick Snyder, losing 58.1 to 39.9. Yes, it was a massive GOP wave year, but not only did Bernero fail to clear 40 percent, he turned in the worst blue state performance of any Democrat who ran in a two-way race that cycle. Some Democrats who did better include Ron Sparks (Alabama), Bill White (Texas), Terry Goddard (Arizona), Roy Barnes (Georgia), Vincent Sheheen (South Carolina) ... you get the picture.

Bernero also chalked up a particularly poor showing in the 8th District, falling 66-34 to Snyder in the two-party vote, according to an estimate by Stephen Wolf. It's hard to pinpoint Bernero's precise faults, except to say he seemed to run an undisciplined campaign and alienated more voters than he won over by embracing the title of "America's Angriest Mayor." A race for Congress in a more neutral year is a different beats, but Bernero's history in the district is still an obstacle for him.

And while he contemplates, Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, is reportedly visiting D.C., according to a paywalled report at MIRS, presumably to meet with the DCCC. And Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing is expressing interest, but only if Byrum doesn't run. A couple of other Democrats, meanwhile, have bowed out, including state Rep. Sam Singh and ex-state Rep. Mark Meadows (who says he's hitting the Appalachian Trail—for real!).

1:37 PM PT: MI-08: There's also an early Republican primary poll from a trio of firms who say they don't have any dogs in this hunt: Murray Communications, Portable Insights, and Combat Data. They find former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop leading state Sen. Joe Hune 23-18, while Rochester Hills Mayor Bryan Barnett takes 6, former state GOP chair Saul Anuzis is at 4, and just 2 percent support Steve Hantler, who appears to be something like consigliere for Home Depot founder Bernie Marcus. Almost half of respondents, though, are undecided, and only Bishop has actually declared for the race.

1:41 PM PT: MI-14: State Sen. Vincent Gregory is dropping out of the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Gary Peters and will instead run for re-election. Plenty of other candidates still remain, with Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence the probably front-runner in this dark blue district.

1:43 PM PT: MI-04: State Sen. John Moolenaar, one of the most talked-about potential successors to retiring Rep. Dave Camp,  has already declared his candidacy. State Sen. Roger Kahn, meanwhile, is out.

1:45 PM PT: AZ-07: Former White House Director of Youth Engagement Ronnie Cho says he won't join the Democratic primary for retiring Rep. Ed Pastor's seat.

1:55 PM PT: NC-07: Former state Sen. David Rouzer is joining his GOP primary rival, New Hanover County Commissioner Woody White, on the air with his first ad. Driving around in his SUV, Rouzer says that the people he talks to are "worried about our future, and they should be." Why? Because "Barack Obama's put this country on a path to financial ruin, and Congress hasn't stopped him."

2:03 PM PT: NC-Sen: Karl Rove's American Crossroads is running a new ad slamming Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan for her "Obamacare deception" and "attacking our common sense voter I.D. law," while praising Republican Thom Tillis for having "the conservative guts to replace Obamacare with honest health care reforms." Crossroads is spending $277,000 to air the spot.

2:14 PM PT: MS-Sen: Republican Sen. Thad Cochran, who faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Chris McDaniel, is trying to shore up his conservative credentials in his latest ad. The narrator touts Cochran's endorsement by the NRA and Gov. Phil Bryant, as well as his "100 percent pro-life voting record from National Right to Life" and the fact that he's "voted against Obamacare more than 100 times."

2:20 PM PT: FL-02: American for Prosperity is running a new ad on behalf of GOP Rep. Steve Southerland that's strange in two ways. For one, it's a positive spot, which is not exactly AFP's strong suit. More importantly, the ad doesn't mention "repeal" at all. Rather, the narrator merely says that Southerland "understands Obamacare's not working, and he's fighting to protect us." It's yet another sign that running on outright repeal may not be the clear-cut winner that conservatives imagine it to be.

2:39 PM PT: FL-19: Former state Rep. Paige Kreegel, who is running in this month's special GOP primary to replace ex-Rep. Trey Radel, is running his first ad of the race. It's narrated by his wife, who praises her husband's career as a physician, including his work "on a SWAT team, a trauma doctor saving the lives of our servicemen." She also mentions that "as a legislator, he fought to protect life and Second Amendment rights."

3:08 PM PT: GA-Sen: Michelle Nunn's been lucky so far: Not only are all her potential GOP opponents beating on one another in a bruising primary, but she's also avoided the avalanche of attack ads that many Democratic incumbents have faced. That's changing, though, with a new spot from Ending Spending, the outside conservative group created by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, that's backed by a $150,000 buy.

The narrator accuses Nunn of supporting "Obamacare and higher taxes." He continues: "Under the Michelle Nunn-Obama plan, the IRS will be asking about your health insurance. And, if they don't like your answer, or your health plan—sorry, you could pay a penalty." However, with the passage of the Affordable Care Act, it's now pretty much by definition impossible to obtain health care coverage that does not pass muster (at this point, it would have to be something like a vision- or dental-only plan). There are also extensive exemptions from fines for failure to comply with the individual mandate, so this particular bogeyman probably won't pack a very big punch this year.

3:13 PM PT: MI-Gov: Please kill me now. The RGA is running a second ad featuring their brain-dead moronic totally not funny pun about how "the shower is over" because, you see, that's a homophone for MARK SCHAUER no seriously I am done here.

3:23 PM PT: KY-Sen: Republican businessman Matt Bevin's new ad attacking Sen. Mitch McConnell is kind of a sloppy mess, featuring an echo-y audio track, overly dour music, and no coherent message that I can really summarize. Meanwhile, the Kentucky Opportunity Coalition is running a pro-McConnell spot featuring a farmer who complains that "the death tax makes it harder for us to hand our farm on to our kids," but says McConnell is fighting to end it. Ah yes, the estate tax—which now only affects the richest 0.14 percent of Americans. If this guy's covered by it, then he's as sympathetic as Paris Hilton. If not, he's just a dupe.

3:28 PM PT: AL-06: Republican businessman Will Brooke, who is running for Rep. Spencer Bachus' open House seat, is going on the air with a pair of introductory ads. Both tout him as a job creator, while the first heavily focuses on his faith (one shot features him leading a group in what looks like prayer), and the second is about reforming Washington and repealing Obamacare.

3:33 PM PT: 1Q Fundraising:

The first fundraising quarter of the year is now over, though federal candidates don't have to file reports until April 15. Of course, plenty will leak advance numbers, most in the hope of looking good compared to the competition. So far, it's just a trickle, but there will be plenty more to come.

AZ-07: Ruben Gallego (D): $160,000 raised (in one month), $150,000 cash-on-hand

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Comment Preferences

    •  :[ (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, BeloitDem, WisJohn

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:42:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why the long face? (0+ / 0-)

        What nonexistent Democratic retirements in highly vulnerable seats or bad polls were you planning on posting?

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:20:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I had something much better planned. (0+ / 0-)

          Granted, I've been lazier than usual lately and distracted by doing other things, like reading more. Every year, I plan to plan a joke on my mom involving my sister's undergrad school, a place she loathes, but I never do it. It's probably better that I never get around to doing this, considering the last time I tried to be deceptively funny, she ended up upset and she's recently had cardiac issues. Because apparently Hell needed more reasons to fast track me.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:38:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  so sayeth the David (0+ / 0-)

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:03:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fine I'll wait till next year to announce... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, LordMike, JBraden, WisJohn, gabjoh

      ...Ted Cruz is coming out of the closet to marry Clay Aiken.

      Or was I going to announce Joe Biden was resigning as Vice President to run for President and Barack Obama planned in a sign of bipartisanship to ask Chuck Hagel to serve as his replacement?

      Or was it former Gov. John Engler coming out of retirement to run for the US Senate in Michigan?

      Or maybe it was Andrew Cuomo dropping out of the New York Governor's race so he can challenge Markos Moulitsas for the title of Supreme Overlord of Dailykos.

      It was one of those.  But alas.  Have to wait till next year. :(

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:53:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Was Engler popular when he finished his tenure? (0+ / 0-)

        he won reelection in 1998 with 62% of the vote, but his LG the awesomely named Dick Posthumous lost narrowly to Granholm in 2002.

        •  1998 (5+ / 0-)

          He drew a singularly weak opponent in Geoffrey Fieger. Picture the most obnoxious over-the-top lawyer you've ever seen on a sitcom, and then picture someone more obnoxious, and that's Fieger. His "campaign" mostly consisted of a series of bizarre personal attacks on Engler. Even Dems were putting up bumper stickers that were mostly blank but had "Fieger, I suppose" in small print in the lower right corner.

          Fieger won the primary with barely 40% of the vote over two lightweights.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:28:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I believe he was. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, Stephen Wolf

          Once the twins were born he pretty muched walked on water.

          As for 1998.  The Democrats actually had a good candidate that most of the party rallied behind, Larry Owen.  I thought he was the strongest of the candidates who ran in 1994.  Certainly better than Howard Wolpe.

          Of course as we all know a funny thing happened.  Geoffrey Fieger's combative style won him some younger voters who wanted someone to take the fight to the Republicans.  He had great name ID thanks to years of being Robert Kevorkian's lawyer.  And as often happens in Michigan the Detroit vote comes in late and strong in a weird direction no one expected.  In 1994 for example the Detroit vote pushed Joel Ferguson who never polled particularly well to a near upset (There wasn't much of a spread between Carr, Fergueson, and I think Lana Pollack was the name of the Ann Arbor State Senator who ran) over Bob Carr in the US Senate primary (which would've been a good thing given the horrible campaign Carr ran against Spencer Abraham).

          There of course was one other conspiracy theory that may or may not be true.  That Republicans crossed over to vote for Fieger as revenge for Democrats crossing over to help Patrick Buchanan beat Bob Dole in the 1996 Michigan Republican Primary.  Whether or not either race was influenced by crossover votes is up for debate.  But what is not is that in low turnout elections weird stuff can happen and the weird thing that happened, Fieger, was toxic.

          Then again being an obnoxious albatross wasn't that much worse than being just a plain old lame candidate.  Howard Wolpe got 38.5% in 1994, Geoffrey Fieger got 37.7 in 1998.  Of course 1998 was a much better year for Democrats.

          Going back to John Engler.  He would've been a scarier theoretical candidate 10 years ago.  He is less well known now and his tenure as a lobbyist on Wall Street leaves him vulnerable to attacks on the left or right.  Or at least we'd hope he'd be Tommy Thompson 2.0 rather than the John Engler of old.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 03:05:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I only like it if it makes things fun and jovial. (0+ / 0-)

      Not when it tries to deceive people into bullshit.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:00:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  7 (14+ / 0-)

    7 is the lucky number for Dems - with the 7 million private exchange 'estimate' reached, there are now 7 months to go to really capitalize on the success of the ACA.  That is a long time for good news to flow down to the electorate, and for Dems to go on offense.

    They need to continue to point out the positive things that the ACA has accomplished - because most voters are not aware of the bills basic components.  I think we are better positioned now to continue to drum up support and hopefully depress the same tea party sentiment that brought about the significant losses in 2010.

    With a platform of:
    - Improve & Strengthen the ACA
    - Raise the Minimum Wage
    - Equality for All
    - Student Loan Reform
    - Jobs Jobs Jobs

    ... I think the right formula is in place for turning out the voters we need to gain some ground in the House and at the very least hold our own in the Senate.

    I think Republicans really miscalculated and will now have to consistently push back on the success of Obamacare for the next 7 months - I think it will be them on the defense instead of the other way around.  And they now have 4 years of anti-Obamacare rhetoric to defend....

    I am confident in our chances!

    •  I agree (5+ / 0-)

      To me, if you take the technical/logistical issues out of the news, then you're able to argue the more general merits of the law.  On that playing field, at worst, Democrats can argue to a draw and if they are smart enough, actually put the GOP on the defense.  

      So long as the technical glitches were in the news basically every month since the rollout, it was hard to argue the basic merits of the law.  When the GOP is finally forced to debate the issue, I don't expect this to be so one-sided, anymore.  

      They had their time, months of unfettered free press to try and trash the law.  That crap is over.

    •  This is the exact thing Dems needed (9+ / 0-)

      If the national mood inches upward, that might give our endangered incumbents the point or two they need to get to 50%+1.

      If Republicans continue to run on repeal and no other issue (what else would they run on, anyway?), we might even see some of the races we thought were gone (MT, WV, SD) or probably not winnable (KY, GA) begin to turn in our favor.

    •  I think this is only a marginal help (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Mark27, jncca

      I don't think the public will react one way or another to any magical number being hit or missed.  It wouldn't hurt us or help the GOP much if it were only 6 million as the CBO's revised projection had estimated, and it won't help us much or hurt the GOP much if it really does hit 7 million as the CBO originally projected.

      We're hampered by two things.  First, people all along have feared the health care law will eventually hurt them in some way, or hurt others they care about, and it will take more time to prove them wrong.  Second, the failed initial rollout just made the law and the Democratic Administration look bad.  That all's well that ends well mitigates the damage, but I don't know it completely erases it.  The damage won't be erased unless and until our national polling improves in House and Senate races...it was the bad rollout that dragged those numbers down, and the effect remains for now.

      At least if the 7 million number actually gets wide publicity, that helps sell the law further.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:59:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  At the very least, the alternative (5+ / 0-)

        not being a big failure to meet the enrollment number means they can't loudly and proudly trumpet such a failure. They'll still try, but the fact that it's a weak complaint means it plays less outside of the Fox echo chamber. That's a big plus.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:04:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think it helps in several ways.... (7+ / 0-)

        First, we'll get some positive coverage on health care for the first time maybe ever... The admin should try and milk it for a few weeks.  Since it's a bit of a surprise, it will have some impact.

        Secondly, it proves that the government can do something right.  That's bigger than any short term ACA benefit.  It helps our cause overall.

        Thirdly, it gives Obama some bragging rights and makes him look like a winner.  Everyone loves and underdog, and this is a true underdog story.  this should boost his approval, especially among Dems who have been disillusioned.

        Fourthly, it will motivate Dems to defend  and protect the law, and it is a nice rallying point to get Dem voters to the polls.  It's a nice win to rally around.

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:23:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I should also say (0+ / 0-)

        that the bigger worry to me is that the standard litany of complaints is tied to the ACA even it probably shouldn't be. I think this is less damaging than a clear stated goal of the law not being met, but again, these people plan to keep hacking away, and every time something bad or annoying happens (a big premium increase, a long waiting time, etc.) I think there's a fair chance of "Thanks, Obamacare!!!!!!" seeping in.

        This is why I think the various administration-directed delays were a good political move. Even if the last one about the individual market only meant a change for about 250,000 people, it'd be blown up into something much bigger--and about a month before election day!

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:26:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  You underestimate impact (6+ / 0-)

        First of all the 7 million number is the number of people who signed up through the exchanges.  That does not factor in the number of people who got healthcare through expanded Medicaid and through their parents until they are 26.  The total number of people who will have healthcare as a result of Obamacare will be closer to 14 million if not more.  Twice the 7 million and many of those will be for the first time in a long time.  

        The perception of Obamacare will gradually change over time, slowly at first and then more rapidly as those 14+ million realize the benefits that Obama has bestowed on them.  Not to mention the tens of millions more who will know about those benefits through direct contact.  Scott Brown for example got a rude awakening from some die hard GOP voters in NH recently.  Many more will follow.  

        The failed initial rollout and all the bullshit that proceeded it is all but a distant memory and will once and for all be laid to rest with the surpassing of 7 million signups.  The GOP will squawk and try to throw up as much shit on the wall to see what will stick as Barrasso did this weekend.  But frankly people are tired of the crap.  Poll after poll keep telling us they're ready to move on and accept that the ACA is law and are much more interested in improving it not repealing it.  50+ repeal votes in the House and a govt shutdown have not swayed the people to the GOP side either.  Their time has run out and nobody is buying their shit anymore.  Their ads are getting debunked at lighting speed and even the press that up until now has been almost completely complicit in spreading their BS is calling them out on it.  An example was seen in MI where they debunked the latest Koch ad and exposed how the lying sack of crap in their ad turned down Medicaid because they were fucking stupid ideological idiots.  

        The fact is the 7 million or actually the 14+ million won't need publicity.  Word of mouth will do the work of any ad and it won't be cynically dismissed as being some partisan bullshit because it will be delivered by a real person others are well acquainted with.  You cannot buy that kind of publicity.  Imagine in the heart of KY someone who got themselves and their family free or very cheap quality healthcare for the first time correcting someone else's FOXaganda with first person testimony.  Or hearing Mitch McConnell on TV telling them he wants to repeal Obamacare and take away what they got for the first time ever.  You think that person will sit idly by and let him?  Or do you think that person will tell others how much of a liar he is and work to elect someone who will fight to preserve their benefits?  

        The numbers already ARE improving.  The nadir seems to have been in the months after the botched rollout but are slowly creeping up.  Both Obama and Obamacare have seen their numbers go up and the Dem pols running on improving Obamacare will also see their numbers up.  All the millions Koch spent on attacking them will be neutralized and any further spending will reach a point of saturation with increasingly diminishing results until the point where the results will turn negative for them.  At this point the only question is whether we have enough time for that to happen and turn in our favor before November.      

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:03:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The answer to that question is yes (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome

          Of course, whether Democrats can take advantage of it is anybody's guess. But in October the Republicans were being slaughtered in the polls, and in a few short months, things turned into a neutral/tilt-R environment. Politics is the study of change.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

          by Le Champignon on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:01:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hope you're right (0+ / 0-)

            I also hope the GOP pulls another stunt like the govt showdown to firmly cement in people's mind how fucking evil they are.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:20:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I wouldn't be surprised (8+ / 0-)

      if it ends up much closer to 7.5m or higher when all is said and done. Hell, 8m isn't out of the question.

      The crush of enrollments yesterday probably got us comfortably past 7m. And there are still a couple weeks left for others to complete the process (even if they haven't started yet).

    •  I'm concerned about the subsidies lawsuit. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      madmojo, LordMike, wadingo, Mark27
    •  just wait until people get told Republicans... (8+ / 0-)

      Want to take their new healthcare away.  And that their replacement "plan" for the law will cover less people and cost them more and offer less services for that cost.  They try to seriously repeal this now, they'll get a lot of pushback once it looks like it will pass.  

    •  The GOP's narrative against the ACA is nonsensical (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PassionateJus, MetroGnome

      As little as 4 months ago, the GOP's narrative was very resonant with the public: the health insurance exchange wasn't functional and only a small portion of the public had signed up while many people knew somebody or at least heard of someone who had been shifted off their previous insurance plan. So the simplistic Republican narrative made sense: Obama lied to the public and also gave us a policy change that didn't work.

      Fast-forward four months and the GOP narrative is increasingly garbled. I watched a few interviews between AFP spokespeople or GOP politicians and their points are not cohesive but rather a laundry-list of complaints about the ACA that generally have little merit. These complaints are great fodder for the core 40% of people who despise Obama but swing voters will hear the GOP's narrative and be confused.

      The Democrats arguments in favor the ACA will be much more persuasive because they have a basis in the lived experience of millions of Americans while the Republican arguments against it will sound comparable to conspiracy theories. After going through the exercise of actually having to listen to the conservative punditry and pols, I am convinced that this battle will be won by Democrats by election day.

      •  Addendum: this will be a long-term process (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Le Champignon, askew

        I don't expect polls to shift overnight or even for the Democrats to have an advantage by September. Popular conceptions of the ACA are pretty baked-in but the GOP's tone is increasingly toxic towards swing voters and this should be reflected in the polling at some point.

        I think we're all getting pretty carried away though by reading into the media's numbers game rather than thinking about how the tangibles of the law will impact people and how the optics of the debate are playing out.

  •  DC Mayoral Election is today (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sharon Wraight, SaoMagnifico

    I think it is safe to say that we now have the most corrupt city government in decades.  I really couldn't give one-half of one shit who wins this ass-clown contest.

    It will be interesting to see how many more city officials wind up indicted.  I hope the FBI is still working the cases.

    This city is a god damned joke.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:25:33 AM PDT

    •  Nope, it was worse under Barry (10+ / 0-)

      I lived in D.C. during Marion Barry's final term as Mayor, and it was definitely worse than under Gray.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:00:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It was just defunct (0+ / 0-)

        because the city had so obviously moved on.  It became an open question about how the city would get past it.

        Isn't that when we had a few months (maybe a year?) of that woman that Congress installed as a "City Administrator"?  I forget her name....

        But this... this is just ridiculous.  We;ve had what?  three resignations over federal charges... 2 people currently serving jail.  More grand juries on-going, the mayor openly stating that he has no intention of resigning even if he is convicted of multiple felonies...   I don't think any of the council members actually pay their taxes... maybe Catania...

        Its just sickening.  And every single one of the people jockeying for new offices just SCREAMS "More of the morally bankrupt same".  Every one.  There is no one on the horizon that would even ATTEMPT to fix this, much less one that has a 0.0001% chance.

        If the Dems had the House, I might actually be a supporter to just have the Federal Gov take over again.  It can't be worse then this.

        Like I said... I hope we get more arrests.

        Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

        by Wisper on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:56:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But but but, isn't Gray just a continuation? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SaoMagnifico, JBraden

        Marion Barry said so himself:

        “Vince Gray,” Barry told a modest crowd in a church basement in Southeast Washington, “is a leader with a solid crack record.”
        (emphasis mine)

        What a priceless Freudian slip ;)

  •  MI-04 & MI-08 movements (15+ / 0-)

    There seems to be a lot of movement.  According to the Twitter account of MIRS (Michigan's capitol newsletter), this morning:

    MI-04: State Senator John Moolenaar, a Midland Republican, will run to replace Dave Camp.  State Representative Jim Stamas, also a Midland Republican, will run to replace Moolenaar in the state senate.  Jim Stamas is also the Majority Floor Leader and best remembered for "Vaginagate" in which he silenced two Democratic State Representatives, Lisa Brown and Barb Byrum - who are both now county clerks who've been in the news, lately - for "violating the decorum of the House."  Funny how all these names turn back up. lol

    MI-08: Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum, and Onondaga Democrat, will be traveling to Washington for unspecified reasons, and MIRS seems to believe the state Democratic party is clearing the field for her state rep Sam Singh and former state rep Mark Meadows both choosing not to run.  The only person still hinting at a run?  Lansing mayor Virg Bernero left this cryptic statement on his facebook page a few hours ago:

    Thanks to all of you who responded so candidly and passionately. One thing that binds us, regardless of where we are from or even our political orientations, we are Americans who give a damn. And that to me my friends means a great deal.

    Thank you for taking the time to share your views with me. Thanks for standing up and being counted - here and in your communities. I have a tough decision to make, and yet I cannot lose. I am blessed with a great job here in Lansing and an incredible family and support network that will accompany me to the next challenge, wherever and whenever it comes (and that includes many of you, i hope). God bless you all, and stay tuned.

    I can't imagine any scenario in which he runs if Barb runs, so I can only imagine that he's simply keeping his options open or sending the state party a message to speed this thing up.
  •  MI-04: State of the Democratic field (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    Following up on MetroGnome above, here's a quick look at our prospects in MI-04. Spoiler: It's not pretty. Via the Detroit Free Press.

    Potential Democratic names are former U.S. Rep. Jim Barcia of Bay City, Bay County Executive Tom Hickner and former state Sen. Joel Sheltrown of West Branch.
    An important note for Barcia and Hickner: Bay City and Bay County are both entirely in MI-05, which is represented by Democrat Dan Kildee.

    On paper, someone like Barcia would be a decent candidate, but he'd be running in a district that (1) he doesn't live in and (2) doesn't overlap much with the district he represented. (MI-05 when Barcia represented it 15 years ago, versus MI-04 now if he ran in this race.)

    Joel Sheltrown (or his older brother, who he succeeded in the state House) might be a more natural fit-- he lives in the district and has a more recent record of winning in that part of the state. But making the race competitive is a huge long-shot.

    There's already a Democrat who was already running against Camp-- John Barker, former Union Township supervisor. My understanding from the chatter online is that he was actively recruiting candidates to run against Camp and, not finding anyone, decided to jump in himself. If a bigger name gets in he would probably bow out... but I've got no idea if any bigger names would actually be interested.

    The fact that the Free Press is naming Barcia as a potential candidate is a pretty good sign of how little of a bench we have in that district. Best-case scenario: We nominate one of the three named above and hope the Republican implodes.

    •  Bigger names? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, bythesea, SaoMagnifico
      If a bigger name gets in he would probably bow out... but I've got no idea if any bigger names would actually be interested.
      What bigger names?  Sounds like Sheltrown would be the only other "big name" short of recruiting from outside the district.

      BTW, I've been thinking about this for days, now, but doesn't the timing of these retirements seem odd?  You know, giving candidates in their own party less than a month to come up with a campaign apparatus?  I can't really make sense of it one way or the other to be honest.

      •  Yeah, I don't know (6+ / 0-)

        My only guess is that Rogers and Camp may be trying to neutralize the really out-there Tea Partiers-- with just a month to get a campaign together, the only candidates who can plausibly get in and file in time are sitting legislators or prominent names with connections. It makes sense for two politicians firmly within the GOP establishment to try to arrange a successor that the leadership would be comfortable with.

        ... But that hypothesis falls apart on further scrutiny, since post-2010 a lot of those sitting legislators are pretty out-there Tea Partiers already. Guys like Joe Hune are already pretty radical already.

        So I've got nothing.

        •  BTW (5+ / 0-)

          Something I've totally been forgetting to factor into the race in MI-08 is how well Gary Peters does in Oakland County.  If he can drive up turnout in OC, he could help lessen the GOP margin of victory in the part of MI-08 that includes those northern OC communities.  I totally hadn't considered Gary Peter's residence as it could relate to MI-08 and maybe even to a lesser extent MI-11.

          •  Michigan and GOP (7+ / 0-)

            Man I really hope these retirements are giving the GOP all sorts of headaches.  Michigan has the potential to be a gift that keeps on giving to Dems.  

            We have a Senate race with a wackadoodle running for the GOP which could help us.

            We have a governor's race with an unpopular GOP incumbent running for re-election.

            We have a few wackadoodle GOP reps in Bentivolio, Benishek and Amash who are sure to say or do something fucking stupid.

            We have two high profile GOP reps who are calling it quits in competitive or moderately competitive districts.

            We have a state GOP majority that is despised more than stinky dog shit on the bottom of our shoes.

            Every single race in Michigan should be considered competitive and should be contested.  Even Huizenga and Miller should be targeted.  At R+7 and R+6 they're not even remotely close to being Dem seats but with so much GOP suck on the plate maybe a statewide wave could develop and wash alot of the flotsam and jetsam out.    

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:15:18 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've been trying to tell people this (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Avedee

              Michigan has every ability to be a huge Democratic seat generator from the state house up to the Senate if the national party wants to take a stand, here.  It's uniquely positioned this cycle for some major pick-ups.

          •  Hopefully Someday We'll See A TV Soap..... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, JBraden

            ......set in Oakland County, Michigan, sarcastically titled "The New OC" or something like that, with autoworker families rather than rich families in Newport Beach.  At the very least, it should be a Saturday Night Live skit.

  •  Ia-Sen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    What do most people think the Gaffe by Iowa Congressman Braley will do to the US senate race?

  •  DC Mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PassionateJus

    Voted for Jack Evans this morning. My polling place in NW DC was decently crowded, nothing like Pres voting obviously though.

    My predicton: Bowser edges Gray by a few points with Evans and Wells trailing but combined coming close. If one of those 2 had dropped out I think we would have seen a serious 3 way race. If Gray does eek out a win I think a race between him and Catania will be very interesting.

  •  Is it only me (16+ / 0-)

    Or is the media particularly nasty to the Dems right now?

    Yes, there's obviously a big uphill slope for us, and yes, we might lose the Senate, and yes, there's no chance of us taking the House, but people like Nate Silver and the other Beltway hacks seem to want to make 2014 into 2010. Which it doesn't have any sign of becoming.

    2002 might be a better comparison, which would suck but not be a huge thing in the end. But no, it's all "Dems in disarray, Dems in disarray".

    Is it some weird offshoot of the "play up the excitement" strategy being played here, but with Senate control being the price rather than breaking even?

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:21:02 AM PDT

    •  When has the beltway media NOT been nasty to Dems? (32+ / 0-)

      As Josh Marshall of TPM has said, the beltway media is "wired for Republicans".  Places like the National Journal are firmly stuck in 1984.  They are giddy with glee that their favorite party, the GOP, has a good chance at taking the Senate.  Unfortunately, it's not going to change for quite awhile, since the beltway is dominated by older white wealthy men.

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:32:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I dont have an issue with Silver (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, bythesea

      I mean, there is some controversy between him and Paul Krugan about 538. But I think Silver's Senate analysis is fair.

      On the rest of the pundits, yeah. When they get stuck on a narrative, they dont let go, and and I think they decided, pretty much after Obama's re-election, that 2014 was going to be bad for Dems.

      That's not why it will be difficult for Dems. Not blaming the media for that. But any good news for Dems is going to get ignored or downplayed by the media.

      •  His Senate analysis is fair on more obvious calls (9+ / 0-)

        That anyone looking at a polling average could call. His model's usefulness should come from being able to call the tossups, which is something it hasn't been any better on than polling averages.

        I feel like Nate downloaded the Tea Party's Guide to Grifting the Media. He attacks liberal pundits and professional organizations, gets into childish fights on Twitter, then makes the cable news rounds and talks about how smart and awesome he is.

        •  A Senate model that just looked at polls (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Jacques Kallis, R30A, Chachy, KingTag

          Would have nailed North Dakota and Montana last time.

          You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

          by Gpack3 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:41:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  But he called 49 of the 50 states in 2012! (5+ / 0-)

          Never mind that only 9 of those were seriously contested by either campaign, and there were maybe 3-4 states that could legitimately be considered tossups (OH, FL, NC, VA).

          I'm not dissing Nate's work, but the "49 out of 50!" always seems like a bit of a misnomer. For what it's worth I called 50 out of 50 in a prediction I put up on Facebook two months before the election - and got shit on by all my conservative friends for it.

        •  I personally think Harry Reid said it best (6+ / 0-)

          "He gave me a 16% chance to win."

          Silver's analyses are fantastic and often, very worthwhile.  But politics isn't math.

          •  "But politics isn't math." (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv

            This is something that actually bothers me about this place, even.  It's funny, because I actually come here and remain here for the numbers, but I think FAR too much emphasis is placed on them being destiny.  Politicsis is just as much - if not even more - an art than it is a science, and wonks sometimes have the very hardest time finding the human element.  It's as if quality candidate and national mood and the like are completely thrown out the window.

            I get why.  It's the uncertainty.  It's hard to measure these things, and that induces fear of anything that's not easily measured.  But, it disappoints me to no end to see what some truly seem to believe as realism is in fact misguided pessimism.  I see the numbers.  I also know we have seven months left and that there are things these numbers absolutely can not pick up on the ground.  What I want to see is WAY less assurance placed on current numbers and even past trends, and quite a bit more attention paid to national and local moods and narratives developing and how we project strength and adapt.

        •  I am finding the Nate Silver hate a little... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy, jncca, askew

          ...odd. Dude's a liberal, and his output is generally in the neighborhood of mildly interesting, with occasional work that is quite good. Like a lot of technocratically-inclined mathy types, he's maybe a little obtuse with regard to the role of ideology in shaping discourse. But whatevs, he's basically fine.

          •  Though I will say (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            that on the same grounds I didn't at all get his lionization after the 2012 election. There was only one toss-up state in the presidential election, and as Gpack points out, his secret sauce for predicting senate races made him misson two, where simply looking at polls would have gotten them all. That was a pretty unimpressive performance.

          •  I don't see hate, I did see hero worship (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MetroGnome, madmojo

            that was never justified.  Nate's problems stem from an almost Orewellian level of arrogance where, basically, his science is valid and other people's science is voodoo... even when his science is not science at all but rather just his opinions.

            This leads to judgment errors that aren't merely a difference of opinion, which is something we should always be generous in considering other people's thoughts, but rather they are whoppers of illogical thought.

            In other words, if you claim a superiority of methodology, and then you (on occasion) say 2+2=17, you only have yourself to blame.

            All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

            by tommypaine on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:49:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hmm ... I'm not sure he does insert opinion (0+ / 0-)

              At least he tried very hard not to. What he does is willfully create obscure statistical processing thickets that allow him to claim a special vantage point, when such a vantage point is not required at all. All that's required is to read the polls and average them together, perhaps in a weighted manner, the sort of math my 11 year old can do. His partisan ideology is not reflected in his work, but his intellectual ideology very much is. That ideology says that all non-quantified insight is invalid, and that quantified insight can only come from complex exclusive technique. The fact that one can stand out from the crowd of analysts better when one can develop complex algorithms is how he makes a living.

              This is an old debate that goes back to the early decades of the 20th Century. He represents the latest incarnation of the positivist theorists, who lately at any rate have tended to be young, educated, white males for whatever reason. A lot of them in my experience tend to be Paulists, although Nate isn't of course.

  •  IL-Gov: I saw a link on FB to a poll yesterday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, jj32, bythesea

    That showed Rauner leading Quinn 45-32. It was the the WAA poll - it was by some other association. Is that an older poll? No one linked to it here, so I figured it wasn't recent.

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:32:35 AM PDT

  •  Not* the WAA poll. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    28, gay male, partnered and living in Indianapolis (IN-7). Raising money for the most important social movement in Indiana in generations -- Freedom Indiana. www.freedomindiana.org. We will defeat HJR-6!

    by IndyLiberal on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:37:31 AM PDT

    •  I wouldn't be shocked if... (7+ / 0-)

      ...Quinn ends up being proven to be toast no less than Corbett.  At DKE we're all inclined, rightly so, to view Corbett as a goner, but then still think Quinn can survived based on his state's partisan tilt and his stunning survival in 2010.  But it wouldn't shock me if he loses by 10 points this November......and then in hindsight we should all just realize that he wasn't going to survive forever with such deep unpopularity, even if he survived once.

      That said, I hope he manages to pull it out.  But I'm increasingly viewing this one as tilt R rather than tossup.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:04:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It really is inexcusable he's our nominee again (10+ / 0-)

        I don't have anything against the guy and think he's done an okay job, but does anyone have any doubt that Lisa Madigan or really any generic D would be crushing a right-wing elitist like Rauner?

        •  Illinois (6+ / 0-)

          seems like a worse state to govern than California did a few years ago. I won't pretend to be an expert on its problems, but I was reading a little bit about it yesterday. It's kind of striking just how ridiculous the situation seems to be. For years, they didn't pay various types of bills, and Quinn, for better or worse, tried to do things to correct the state's problems. The income tax increases were supposed to be temporary, sure, but even with some increases in education spending, they'll go a long way, it seems, to making sure the state pays down its debts. It might suck to pay those extra taxes, but the choice seems to be (more) cuts to services.

          Maybe Quinn will be somewhat relieved he loses, if it comes to that.

          This reminds me of the part of an ABC/WaPo poll that sacman highlighted a few weeks ago, where virtually the same percentage of people (a) wanted the federal government to stop spending money, especially on special projects and (b) wanted their congressional representatives to get more funding for their district. It's kind of hard to have it both ways.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:20:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Corbertt is a Republican in a blue leaning state (18+ / 0-)

        And Quinn is a Democrat in a heavily Democratic state, so there is some difference between those two.

        As for that poll, that sample was about 64% over 60 and only 3% 18-29, so that is enough to throw it out. There's no way the electorate will be that old.

        27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

        by DrPhillips on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:24:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Quinn is still favored (6+ / 0-)

          Rauner is just a random rich dude with no discernible political skills. He won the primary by outspending the scandal-marred Rutherford and the weak retreads Dillard and Brady. To me this race smells a little like Michigan in 2006, where an unpopular Dem incumbent beat a GOP challenger who was a terrible fit for the state. 2014 won't be a Dem wave like 2006 was, but Illinois is also generically a much bluer state than Michigan is. To win, Rauner would have to run a near-perfect campaign.

          In addition to PA being much better for Dems than IL is for the GOP, the PA Dem field is far stronger than the IL GOP field. Wolf may be the Dem equivalent of Rauner, but to win the primary he'll have to get past some well-funded heavyweights.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:57:29 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is the IL GOP bench that thin (0+ / 0-)

            that nobody better would step forward? Interest in the race isn't everything, but it's a big state with enough remaining moderates, I think, that somebody would step forward if they smelled blood.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:18:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  You didn't ask or answer the key question (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            propjoe

            Is Rauner unpopular, either personally or for his politics?  I expect he's just largely unknown right now.  Brady was made unpopular because he was ideologically hard-right, and that doesn't fly in Illinois.  I don't get the sense Rauner is as easy to define that way.

            What damages Rauner's image to make him truly disliked?

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:29:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not going by one poll (0+ / 0-)

          I'm going largely by Quinn's own unpopularity in every single poll for at least the past 5 years.  We like to think that Quinn won last time means he's a tough out, and that's a reasonable perspective on its own terms.

          But it's no less reasonable to say that you can't stay that unpopular and keep winning, sooner or later your ass bites the dust.  I increasongly suspect this is the perspective that will be vindicated this fall in Illinois.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:26:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  I completely agree (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        And Alexi what's his face didn't win in 2010, so there is clearly precedence for crappy Dem candidates not winning in Illinois.  Hell, a crappy Dem candidate couldn't even win in Massachusetts!

  •  Wow, another pathetic quarter for Thom Tillis (13+ / 0-)

    I'm seeing on twitter that he raised just $500k in Q1 on the heels of two ~$700k quarters in Q3 and Q4. By comparison, Hagan raised roughly $2 mil in Q4 alone. North Carolina really is just the Koch brothers... the supermajority of Republican spending has come from them.

    Speaking of whom, out of curiosity I looked up Forbes top 10 wealthiest people list for 2014 and guess who are numbers 6-8:
    6 & 7 - Charles & David Koch - $40 billion a piece
    8 - Sheldon Adelson - $38 billion

    You have to go all the way down to #26 to get a liberal super donor, George Soros with $23 billion and his contributions in recent years are a drop in the bucket compared to the Kochs and Adelson.

    •  It would be nice if Warren Buffet started (0+ / 0-)

      donating his money a little more freely. Not to Dem organizations, because I know he's not super partisan, but at least to issue organizations, like voter registration, ACLU, HRC, stuff like that. That would definitely help.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:03:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Buffett's probably more partisan than you'd (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        think, even if he's not as liberal as others are. He's been a Democrat for decades, he's hosted possible presidential candidates in Omaha (or at least he used to back in the 1970s), and I remember reading he spoke to Senate Democrats about why the Bush tax cuts (at least the investment ones) were a bad idea. There's probably more.

        The bigger problem with your desire is that he's already pledged to give the vast majority of his fortune to the Gates Foundation. I think that's as it should be.

        I'd say you want to focus your energy on trying to get Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies, the Long Island hedge fund, to give more. He's already a major contributor to the Democratic party, and while he's not as rich as the Koch brothers, with an estimated net worth of around $12.5 billion, he won't be on public assistance any time soon. Specifically, he's given $5 million to Priorities USA and, I think, to Obama himself. If not him, maybe Jeff Katzenberg?

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:11:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A 5 million direct contribution to a candidate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, HoosierD42, jncca

          would be super illegal, so I doubt that happened.

          •  I meant within legal limits, of course. (0+ / 0-)

            Simons doesn't like the spotlight, so I can see him being a bundler or anything, but I seem to remember reading that he did give directly to Obama.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 08:03:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  OR marriage (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, SaoMagnifico, sulthernao
    "A timely decision from the Court could render the Initiative unnecessary and spare all Oregonians the cost, expense and emotional strain of a difficult election fight," Oregon United said in an amicus brief filed in federal court.

    The campaign said it has collected 160,000 signatures -- far more than 116,284 valid signatures of Oregon voters needed to qualify for the November ballot.  But it says it won't submit them to the secretary of state if same-sex marriage can come to Oregon through legal action.

    link

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 09:57:29 AM PDT

    •  They better hope the court hurries up. (0+ / 0-)

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:09:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I Wish They'd Put It On The Ballot Anyway (4+ / 0-)

      And get rid of the anti-SSM language from the state constitution.

      I think it would also increase turnout amongst young people and urbanites that don't always vote.

      And it would be good to have another win at the polls ( even though I believe that fundamental rights should never be voted on, etc etc).

      I volunteered against Measure 36 back in 2004 and, while I no longer live in Oregon, I hope to again and I have a lot of gay and lesbian friends there that this impacts directly.

      Plus, even if the state's ban is thrown out by May 23, there's a good chance that a stay will be put in place (like in Utah, Michigan, Kentucky, Virginia, Texas). There is a good chance that same sex marriage will not be allowed for a long time as the case winds through the courts (Prop 8 took years; this probably won't but no one knows for sure).

      And what if the courts rule against same sex marriage ultimately? Then OR United for Marriage will have to start from the beginning, after upsetting a lot of volunteers in the time being.

  •  KYnect reduced uninsured by over 40%: (20+ / 0-)

    http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    As of last Friday, 8% of the whole state was covered through KYnect.  I wouldn't be surprised to see that at 10% after all enrollments are completed and paid by mid-month.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:02:21 AM PDT

    •  Wow (17+ / 0-)

      Good news for ALG. She really needs to send Beshear a fruit basket for being the best part of her campaign.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:06:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope she used the benefits of the ACA in KY (10+ / 0-)

        to attack Mitch and give people a reason to choose her instead: e.g. Mitch will drive Appalachian families into poverty under the burden of medical expenses just to score petty political points.  Alison will work with the Senate and with local Kentuckians to further improve things for our families.

        And yes, Beshear is a complete winner.  He circumvented the legislature to implement Obamacare, he led the Dem delegation to the DNC in '08 and '12, he endorsed Obama for re-election in the crucial month before his re-election in 2011, and he's still popular.  The only thing he's backwards on is SSM and coal, but that's a good overall record for a red state Dem governor.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:10:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's proof that you can (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, sulthernao, R30A, JBraden, askew

          admit the obvious, that you support members of your own party, especially the President, and that you can still survive. I can understand why Pelosi and Obama give people the freedom to run their races a particular way and why candidates feel the need to highlight their differences to some degree, but where this notion that running scared and hoping they forget you're a Democrat will end up with them respecting you for it comes from is beyond me.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:16:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  According to my calculations: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, JBraden, askew

      Kentucky's uninsured rate dropped from 15% to 8%. A net gain of 288,000 newly insured out of 640,000 uninsured.

      This is by assuming that 80% of people who signed up were uninsured, which is close to a figure cited by Kentucky officials.

      If this was October 2013, Kentucky would have been the 2nd most insured state in the nation after Massachusetts (4% uninsured). Ultimately, it will likely still be one of the most insured state.

      •  That's an achievement (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sulthernao

        all Dems can be proud of.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 12:46:36 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Canada 2015: Conservative Exec. Director fired (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, ehstronghold, pademocrat, WisJohn

    Dimitri Soudas was brought on in December as the executive director of the Conservative Party, and was PM Harper's "hand-picked choice to fight the 2015 campaign." Now he's been fired. From the CBC:

    Sources suggest the perfunctory firing of Soudas as the party's executive director came after a dramatic weekend of surreptitious meetings and an investigation by the party leadership to gather evidence Soudas had expressly violated his employment contract by using his powerful position to interfere in a nomination battle being waged by his fiancée, MP Eve Adams.
    and
    Sources told CBC News that cabinet ministers and senior party officials who actually believed the naming of a new executive director would be a competitive process were dumbfounded when Harper called the national council to a meeting at his official residence in December to announce Soudas's hiring.

    As executive director, Soudas was in charge of Conservative nomination races across the country. But sources told CBC News he agreed to stay out of Adams's nomination process to avoid a potential conflict of interest. It was written into his contract that he was to be in charge of 337 ridings for the 2015 election — in other words, all but the one Adams was running in.

    and
    Wally Butts, regional director for the Conservatives, wrote to the party's director of political operations, Fred DeLorey, complaining about the nomination battle and how the district association meeting had gone, asking for DeLorey's help in dealing with what he saw as a precarious situation given that Soudas was his boss.

    A day later, Butts was fired by Soudas.

    I doubt that this will have any real impact on the election next year, but man, if you're running the party, you've got to know better than that. The PM's right-hand man interfering in a nomination battle that he's explicitly promised not to interfere isn't going to make anyone happy.
    •  Anybody know how this is shaping up? (0+ / 0-)

      Does Canada have a decent chance of actually getting rid of Harper this time around, or are the liberals and NDP going to let him win a majority of seats with a 40% plurality of the vote again?

      •  Polling database via wikipedia (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, bythesea, sulthernao, WisJohn

         photo Canada_polling_since_2011_election_zpsb2dec1c7.png

        The conservatives have fallen a good deal and liberals gained a ton of ground and the NDP fallen a modest amount. Seems almost a certainty that the conservatives would lose if the election were today. I don't know if that would give the liberals a majority or not and ideally it would be a liberal/NDP coalition but I don't know enough about Canadian politics to know if that's plausible or not.

        They really need to reform their electoral system... it's disgusting that a party polling around 30% of the vote has a majority.

        •  My understanding (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bythesea, ehstronghold, sulthernao

          Is that if the liberals and NDP could form a majority, they'd probably begrudgingly form a coalition, but stuff would get messy if they needed BQ. IIRC, the Tories had a "minority government" before 2011 thanks to a similar situation.

          •  It's (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sulthernao, BC Progressive

            possible if the Liberals could form a strong minority government they would just pick off the Tories and the NDP on certain issues. I doubt they're going to form a coalition, especially since it really has not been working for the Liberals in Ontario politically.

            The Ontario NDP have been able to publicly bash the Liberals while working on propping them up (with great results may I add), to the anger of Kathleen Wynne and the rest of her party.

            The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

            by ehstronghold on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:10:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Interesting. How do you think that would play out? (0+ / 0-)

              Would the Liberals extract the votes for minority government from the Tories by threatening to let the NDP in the coalition?

            •  So, I'm not Canadian (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson

              And while I follow along pretty closely, I don't claim to fully understand what's happening up north. That said, it seems like next Monday's Quebec provincial elections will be a big factor in shaping 2015.

              If the PQ win a majority, the Conservatives and the Liberals will be falling all over themselves trying to be the party that will keep Quebec in Canada... and the NDP will be in an awkward place trying to be pro-unity but not alienate the Quebec voters that they won in 2011.

              If the PQ doesn't win a majority, I imagine the focus will shift back toward the various scandals and distractions of the Harper government, which is good for the Liberals and the NDP, obviously.

              Is that a fair assessment? Sovereignty is a sensitive topic in Quebec for obvious reasons, but it seems like Pauline Marois has the rest of Canada seriously scared. For as much as John Q. Alberta talks tough about hating Quebec, the merest mention of the R-word and it seems like everyone freaks out for a month. So I have to think Marois forming a majority would totally change the game heading into 2015.

          •  The BQ is dead (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, ehstronghold

            Even if you look at current polling averages, the Liberals and NDP are both above 30% in Quebec, with the BQ at about 22%.  BQ support is generally among Francophone voters, and even there they place third.  Liberals dominate among anglophones/allophones and the NDP has a large enough lead among francophones that they won't relinquish seats to the BQ.  

            Given that two of the BQ's remaining seats are in Montreal itself, it's actually possible that there is no official BQ caucus in Ottawa after the 2015 election.

            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world. We still miss you Jack, we'll make you proud.

            by BC Progressive on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:21:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There is no official BQ caucus right now (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ehstronghold

              Official caucuses need 12 members; the BQ currently only has 4.

              They also have no seats in Montreal. The last Montreal BQ member, Maria Mourani, was expelled for opposing the Charter and is now a federalist.

              24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

              by kurykh on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:47:58 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Sovereignty (0+ / 0-)

              as an idea in general is mostly dead in Quebec for the foreseeable future.

              Witness how the PQ's whole campaign has been constructed around the Charter and how their recruitment of Pierre Karl Peladeau blew up in their face when his declaration that he wanted Quebec to be a independent nation and giving the Liberals the ammunition they needed to credibly argue that a third referendum was in the cards.

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 12:56:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  interesting (0+ / 0-)

          The 2011 election, with % of the vote and number of seats:

          Tories 39.6/166
          NDP 30.6/103
          Grits 18.9/34
          Bloc 6.0/4
          Greens 3.9/1

          The Tories finished well above where the Grits are now, and still won barely half the seats. Since the Bloc is still in the toilet, it looks like the NDP is holding its own in Quebec but the Grits are picking up at their expense and the Tories' everywhere else. If these polling numbers hold up the next government will either be a Grit/NDP coalition or a Grit minority government.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:05:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  And (0+ / 0-)

      to think Eve Adams was one of the Tories' star recruits back in 2011....

      Now she's shaping up to be a major embarrassment to the party. So much so when Harper reshuffled his cabinet he kept Adams a parliamentary secretary while fellow freshman MPs Michelle Rempel and Kellie Leitch got cabinet positions.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:04:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-GOV: "Progressive" group attacks Charlie Crist. (15+ / 0-)

    On Thursday, I received a mailer (which can be seen at the bottom of this link) from a group called "Progressive Choice," which attacked him for being "pro-life," for having an A+ rating from the NRA, for being known as "Chain Gang Charlie" in the legislature, for implementing "Jeb Bush's A+ plan," and for previously supporting a ban on gay marriage.

    I was interested by this organization, because I remembered hearing that Rick Scott's allies were planning on funneling money ostensibly to "help" the fledgling campaign of former State Senator and minor annoyance Nan Rich, and I was curious as to whether this represented their efforts to damage Crist in the Democratic primary.

    I researched "Progressive Choice" and found that is not listed on the Federal Elections Commission website, despite being sent from a P.O. box in Washington, D.C., and is not listed with the Florida Division of Elections, despite the fact that the mailer is an independent expenditure in a state election.

    As it turns out, Aaron Sharockman of the Tampa Bay Times had the exact same questions that I did, and managed to dig a little deeper into the mystery:

    On a Facebook page, the group said its leader is Jamie Fontaine, who "has been pushing women's and LGBT issues for 20 years."

    Buzz isn't sure who that is -- but it might be this Jamie Fontaine -- who runs an issue advocacy group in Baltimore and claims to have worked with Wendy Davis in Texas. (We called Fontaine's office, were placed on hold, then told Fontaine wasn't available. We left a message.)

    That's not all:
    On its Facebook page, Progressive Choice seems to be supportive of Rich, asking that Crist debate Rich and posting a headline titled "Nan Rich Blasts Rick Scott and Charlie Crist on School Choice." [emphasis mine]
    I bolded the bit about Crist debating Rich because the Facebook page of Progressive Choice actually linked to this diary by a Daily Kos member that represented a satirical "debate" between Rich and Crist. Nice to know that some Daily Kos users are helping out the Scott campaign.

    And, finally, it would appear that Patricia Ireland, the former President of the National Organization for Women, is also unwittingly helping the Scott campaign:

    Progressive Choice also showed up in a robocall featuring former National Organization for Women President Patricia Ireland, who is supporting and fundraising for Rich.

    According to BrowardBeat.com, Ireland said in the call that she was "gravely concerned" about Crist's candidacy.

    "For too long, Charlie Crist led the pack of Republicans waging war on women," Ireland said. "...He blocked reproductive choice for too long."

    Ireland urged people in the call to join her on Progressive Choice Florida, which BrowardBeat described as an anti-Crist Facebook page. (We've reached out to Ireland.)

    Just wanted to share this with the community. I thought that I was overreacting to a simple mailer, and in fact I had an analysis written up on Thursday after I received it, but I figured that I was blowing it out of proportion. Then I saw that Peter Schorsch of Saint Petersblog was looking into it, and that the Tampa Bay Times wrote a brief expose on them. It's good to know that I'm not alone in my thinking and concerns.

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Wes Neuman for Congress! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:35:29 AM PDT

    •  Great work by you, Tyler (14+ / 0-)

      Good sleuthing.

      I'm of two minds on this.

      On one hand, I hate purity trolls and the self-sabotage they effectively bring to us.

      On the other hand, I realize in this instance there are people who have sincere distrust of Crist's politics, based on his party switch and the obvious fact personal opportunism is one motive for it.  So I don't begrudge that.

      Myself, I think Crist's public roadblocking of his own party's legislative priorities when he was Governor, and his active pushing of voting rights, all when none of it had any apparent personal benefit to him, are enough for me to trust him now.  It's not the case he has no political sincerity, he's proven that he does.  But he also obviously has his own political advancement in mind.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 10:52:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  7,041,000 enrolled in ACA (22+ / 0-)

    before midnight yesterday. Just announced by Jay Carney.

    He says this does NOT include yesterday's data from state run exchanges, only from states with the federally run exchange. Also, doesnt include people still signing up who tried and were unable to sign up previously.

    It's a valid question on how many have paid/will pay. But I think repeal becomes nearly impossible right now.

    I hope the solid enrollment number, after all the angst and trouble in Oct and Nov, allow congressional Dems to be a bit bolder, tout the benefits, and ask GOP what their alternative is to help insure what will probably 12 million people when Medicaid expansion is included.  

  •  KY-SEN: Does Grimes talk about ACA in KY? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bythesea, JGibson

    Sahil Kapur notes there is nothing from her so far on the sharp drop in the uninsured rate.

    The more I think about it, the more it seems like it's only Beshear who talks the law.

    I frequently defend conservative/moderate Dems, and I get that they cant support every policy that national Dems favor and expect to get elected.  

    But running from ACA in KY is  dumb for many reasons. Mainly because it seems to be working there, because of the efforts of their governor.  

    I'd really like to see Grimes show the enthusiasm for the law that Beshear has.

    •  She probably doesn't want to turn his attention (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, gabjoh

      from Bevin to her with something he likely will take horribly out of context.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:28:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She needs to run on Kynect (13+ / 0-)

      Not on Obamacare.

      Big difference. She needs to run on bringing the common sense solutions that Governor Beshear has instituted with Kynect and applying them to the federal marketplace. And that's only a good idea if the media doesn't harp on her for basically arguing that Kentucky's version of Obamacare should be applied to Obamacare... it's kind of syllogistic.

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 11:32:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea

        I'm fine with that.

        I mean, she needs to talk about the 200k or whatever the number is that have enrolled and the sharp drop in the uninsured.

      •  What's the difference between Kynect and (0+ / 0-)

        Obamacare and what are these "common sense solutions" to which you refer?

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 12:51:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  More specifically, I know Kynect (0+ / 0-)

          is the name for the insurance marketplace site, but that's a distinction that will get lost. What are you really saying?

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 12:57:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  ... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, WisJohn, BeloitDem, sulthernao

          You never give specifics unless you absolutely have to. Ever. Be as vague, but positive as possible that way you don't offend anyone and lose their potential support.

          There may very well be no specific things that Kynect has done "better" that she can call upon, but she can still say she would bring their model to D.C. because "look how well it's done!" yada yada yada.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:05:00 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, okay... (0+ / 0-)

            I thought there was some glaringly obvious difference that I was forgetting. I kind of figured you meant she should be as vague as possible.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:16:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mostly it's semantics (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, KingTag

              The "Affordable Care Act" polls well (and I think "Kynect" does too) while "Obamacare" polls less well.  There's also those anecdotes of people who told media they were grateful for Kynect so they didn't have to deal with Obamacare.  It probably ultimately doesn't matter much but like others have said it's just about staying vague and framing things well.  

          •  There are no "differences" to speak of (5+ / 0-)

            The federal exchange technology is fixed and working fine, so there's nothing left to "fix."  It doesn't apply to Kentucky, since Kentucky has its own exchange.

            Kentucky expanded Medicaid and that's a big chunk of Kynect insured, but by definition that's a state prereogative, the federal effort at compelling Medicaid expansion by conditioning all funding on it was struck down by SCOTUS.

            Kynect otherwise simply meets federal law requirements.

            I'm not sure Grimes should even begin to pretend there are any "differences" between Kynect and "Obamacare."  It just raises questions that trap her.  Better just to talk about Kynect's success on its own terms, and that's her health care position.  Anytime anyone asks about "Obamacare," just ignore any questions about federal law and discuss Kynect instead.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 01:19:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think she should run from the ACA (8+ / 0-)

      But I think she should also avoid using the terms "Affordable Care Act" and especially "Obamacare." Instead, she should focus like a laser on how Mitch McConnell wants to take away health insurance from hundreds of thousands of Kentuckians.

      •  Right (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, sulthernao

        to be clear, I'm not saying Grimes should call it ACA or Obamacare.

        But it seems like she doesnt talk about the positive effects of the law. She isnt talk about McConnell wanting to take away insurance coverage from hundreds of thousands. Hopefully, we see that soon, at least after the primary.

  •  Not counting Colorado where the candidate list (3+ / 0-)

    is not available yet, filing has closed in exactly half the states. Given the nature of the top two primary we don't know if 19 districts in California will have both major parties on the November ballot yet, but so far there are 44 districts out of 242 with only one of the two major parties on the fall ballot. That's an 18.2% and in 2012 there were a total of 45 of 435 without a major party opponent.

    Unsurprisingly the worst offenders are in the South (Texas is up to 12/36, Alabama 3/7, Georgia 6/14) and in California (11/34, could rise or not). The midwest on the other hand has several states with full slates for both parties: IA, MO, NE, IN, while only 1/18 in Illinois could be avoided if the Republican party simply names a challenger to Mike Quigley.

  •  WATN: Merrill Cook and Carl Wimmer (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jorge Harris, gabjoh, KingofSpades, Skaje

    So if anyone has looked at Utah elections, you'll know that former Congressman Merill Cook has been running for various offices for decades; Wikipedia itself states that he began running in 1984, and has run for office nearly every single year since, even after losing his Congressional seat to Jim Matheson. But this year, he did not file. This is the first election cycle in 30 years that he has not run for some elected office. It is the end of an era. Farewell, Merill Cook, and shine on you crazy, crazy man. Let's hope he can pay the bills by being bribed by a conspiracy group to support their claims of the government covering up the existence of aliens (as he did last year).

    Also, Carl Wimmer, the paranoid, anti-abortion gun-loving nutjob who lost the GOP nomination for UT-04 to Mia Love in 2012 is now an evangelical Christian in the middle of nowhere (even for Utah), and loves everyone, apparently.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 12:43:54 PM PDT

  •  LA-Sen: Great (in a political sense) statement (14+ / 0-)

    by Landrieu on the ACA.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

  •  11th Circuit declares 2012 Florida voter purge (16+ / 0-)

    was an illegal action: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 02:05:34 PM PDT

  •  I'm extremely dissapointed Roger Kahn (9+ / 0-)

    isn't running.

    Mostly because it will severely reduce the number of times I have reason to post this video between now and election day:

  •  MN-SD-32 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn

    Senator Sean Nienow loses $613,000 lawsuit by not responding to the court order. Nienow is not an overly rich man, so this is a big hit to him. Given his quixotic behavior in this whole ordeal, I suspect he may hang it up in 2016, and may even resign before that to take a high-paying job to make the payments.
    http://www.startribune.com/...

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 03:45:18 PM PDT

  •  NC-Sen: Survey USA LV poll (7+ / 0-)

    has Hagan behind Tillis by 1, Brannon by 2, but the GOP primary is seemingly going to runoff:
    http://centralnc.twcnews.com/...
    Hagan still in trouble in terms of approval, but it's not worse than it was a few months ago and PPP showed slight positive movement before mid-March.

    I saw the methods.  Why use LV matchups for the general election at this stage??

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 04:40:46 PM PDT

  •  No numbers, but Dems picked up a Mass HD! (9+ / 0-)

    John Velis picked up a GOP-held seat in an open special election:
    https://twitter.com/...

    This HD is also ancestrally Republican apparently:
    https://twitter.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:43:06 PM PDT

    •  It was 52-46 Obama 2012 (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, SaoMagnifico, itskevin, abgin

      57-43 Brown 2012.
      62-37% Gomez 2013.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:43:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is great news ) (0+ / 0-)

        Just to pick a D+1 seat, open by Republican by a narrow margin agrees again about the overall picture of the year.

        It was one of the most Democratic seats that the Republicans hold in Massachusetts.

    •  And Jason Lewis apparently won the SD special: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, ChadmanFL

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:44:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  We didn't even contest this seat in 2012 and 2010: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, SaoMagnifico, itskevin

      http://ballotpedia.org/...

      We did in 2008 and lost by more than 2-1.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:50:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yay, so MA House is now.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      82.8% Democratic!

      One party states... sigh.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:04:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  As long as the "one party"... (3+ / 0-)

        Isn't the Republican Party.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:04:00 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly no (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ragmod, KyleinWA, sacman701

          I'd rather have the Republicans be competitive in places like NY and NJ and MA and us competitive in places like AR and OK and WY. I'm tired of one-party states. From an electioneering standpoint, it makes them very dull. From a political standpoint, the incumbent party inevitably gets lazy and complacent, and their ideas start to wither and die.

          Politics is the art of change, but it's also the art of struggle. Without the struggle, there are no interesting ideas coming out of either camp. Just a bunch of red meat you fling to the base so you don't get your ass primaried. Blah, no thanks.

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

          by Le Champignon on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:26:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Two nitpicks. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            Republicans have a coalition majority in the NY Senate and Dems are close in the AR State House (49-51 minority) and are roughly even money to hold the governorship and A-G position this year.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 07:39:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  True in general, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MetroGnome

            But Republicans being competitive does nothing to improve governance.

          •  Absolutely agree (0+ / 0-)

            That's why i am always for Democratic candidates in the South and Mountain states, but much more tolerant of reasonable Republicans in the North-East or Pacific states. One-party dominance (ANY party's) too frequently breeds corruption, incompetence, mismanagement and so on. It's another matter that even in the North-East fewer and fewer Republicans give me reason even to consider them, because the right-wing shift of the party. Nevertheless - it's useful to have a healthy 2-party (personally i would prefer European multi-party, but that's unlikely now) system instead 1-party dominance.

        •  Problem is Dems get lazy with supermajorities (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          kleinburger, KingTag

          Look at the states where Dems hold huge majorities.  Outside of Vermont there isn't a lot of real, progressive change going on.  Yes, you obviously get better government (for the most part) with Dems in power, but they tend not to push the envelope the way the GOP does when in firm control over states.  

          In some cases Dems become more reactionary when taking supermajorities.  Just look at California where single-payer passed a couple times by Dems in the legislature, but were vetoed by Arnold.  Now Dems have complete control and what happens?  They get cold feet and the bill goes nowhere.  Same deal in Massachusetts, where you rarely hear of much in the way of progressive legislation despite a near monopoly on power.

          •  In the case of MA (0+ / 0-)

            I have not done the numbers to see how it affects to the supermajorities but:

            - In the state senate the Republicans hold 2 seats in D+ territory
            - In the state senate the Democrats hold 4 seats in R+.
            - In the state house the Republicans hold 4 seats in D+.
            - In the state house the Democrats hold 16 seats in R+.

            It is possible that the conservative Democratis in R+ allow not to more progressive supermajorities.

    •  Apparently Velis (D) won by over 300 votes: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, abgin

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:07:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  More importantly.. (0+ / 0-)

      I wonder if there are any tea leaves to be read here. If this is ancestrally Republican at the state and congressional level, maybe we could see other similarly ancestrally Republican districts become more pliable to Democratic state leg and congressional candidates. In other words, the reverse of AR in 2012.

      Yes, NJ-02, I'm so looking at you.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:22:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Dems held NJ-02 before '94 (0+ / 0-)

        It's just that LoBiondo has given labor and environmental votes enough bones to keep them from turning on him.  Also, he tries to not associate himself with GOP leadership.  Same was true of Jim Saxton (NJ-03 prior to 2008 elections) and Rodney Frelinghuysen up north.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 06:26:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  GA Gov: Deal 43 Carter 39 (19+ / 0-)

    Channel 2/Landmark.

    http://m.wsbtv.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Tue Apr 01, 2014 at 05:45:26 PM PDT

  •  Looks like Gray is done in DC (0+ / 0-)

    It's early but Bowser is pulling away with this. And I have to say good riddance to Gray if everything turns out the way its looking can't stand corrupt politicians just a bad look for our party as a whole.

  •  The UAW and Tennessee (5+ / 0-)

    It's "Right-to-Work," unless you want to be in a union, of course:

    Letter shows Tennessee governor linked VW incentives to rejecting UAW

    Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam linked $300 million in economic incentives for Volkswagen to the defeat of a unionization effort at the VW factory in Chattanooga, Tenn., according to newly revealed state records.

    Documents from Haslam labeled “confidential” show a breakdown of cash and tax credits offered to the German automaker that were contingent upon “works council discussions between the State of Tennessee and VW being concluded to the satisfaction” of the state. The documents were obtained by Phil Williams, chief investigative reporter at Nashville television station WTVF.

    But Clint Brewer of the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, in an email to The Detroit News Tuesday, said that the state’s incentive offer was withdrawn in January, in advance of a union vote at Volkswagen even being announced.

    “In August 2013, it was unclear whether a works council was possible under U.S. law. The offer did not preclude the creation of a works council or union representation as a condition for the incentives.”

    It is unclear whether there are any legal implications, especially since the United Auto Workers is challenging the results of the February unionization vote in Chattanooga, which it lost. After the loss, the union filed an appeal with the National Labor Relations Board, claiming politicians and special interest groups interfered with its organization efforts.

    How much longer will they be allowed to keep up the charade that this is about "workers' freedom" and not about straight-up union busting?  How much longer will the voters allow these creeps to keep the ghost in the face of such blatant deception?
    •  The lemmings have been buying it since Reagan (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea

      Why would you think things will change anytime soon?  Let's face it, the GOP (with considerable help from many Dems) have effectively demonized unions for almost four decades.  Ask a good chunk of people in this country about unions and they just roll their eyes and mutter "union goons" or "the unions killed Detroit."  

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