Skip to main content


The Small Faces -- "Tin Soldier"
Reminder: We have an unusual Friday special election in Connecticut's Democratic held HD-61. The Democratic candidate is salesman Peter Hill, while the Republicans have 2012 nominee Tami Zawistowski. The latter lost the seat 52-48 and should have a good chance in a district that favored Romney 51-48.

7:23 PM PT (David Nir): Zawitowski wins, 58-42, picking up the seat for Republicans.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  So how many emails has Rangel sent you? (3+ / 0-)

    Like many of you I have seen the inflation of campaign email.  It all started with joining the Barack Obama campaign and their emails.  Then somehow the list seemed to go to Emily's List with emails looking not all that different from the OFA ones.  Then an upstate congressional challenger I forget the name of.  Mark Murphy's campaign I understood since he probably got all the emails from the clubs and/or county.  Less sure why I started getting emails from Louise Slaughter.  Last year Andrew Cuomo discovered the joys of emailing me.  This year Tonko seems to be the one who emailed me the most until Charlie Rangel got a challenger.

    Now I get at least one Charlie Rangel email every single day.  Some days it is two.

    Any of you also getting the Rangel onslaught?  And what other candidates and/or politicians always drop you a note regularly despite never having asked?

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:26:51 PM PDT

    •  You're in NY, right? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      That probably explains it. I've never gotten an email from Rangel, Cuomo, Slaughter et al, but I get plenty from candidates in CT.

      •  Actually, I've been getting the Rangel e-mails too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget, Christopher Walker

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:12:33 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But Slaughter is WAY upstate. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        geoneb, MichaelNY

        I've never been to Rochester and chances are never will.  It's quite far away and to us folks in New York City might as well e a different country. :)

        But of course you are correct.  Which is why when I occasionally check an old email account I used to use years ago at the University of Michigan I find email from candidates in Michigan.  Still nobody has ever emailed me as much as Charlie Rangel.  I never asked to be taken off these lists just because it is kinda fun to keep tabs on some of these guys and notice just how every email from every damn candidate looks almost exactly the same.  But old chuck just one spammy bastard!

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:16:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I get Slaughter and Rangel too (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Taget

          but then again I went to school in Rochester, interned for the Congresswoman, and subscribed to her e-mail list of my own volition, unlike with Rangel.

          Others I get unsolicited: Recchia, Mowrer, Boxer, Enyart, Tom Udall, Hagan

    •  Surprisingly, none, given I'm in NY. (0+ / 0-)

      I don't recall making any political donations for 2012, except to OFA, $10 to Steve Israel, and maybe a little to the DSCC and/or the DCCC. I made plenty late in 2010, though, and the harassment has never stopped since. I don't really care about the emails, nor the snail mail, which seems to compound because one group gives my info to another group, but the phone calls are annoying, primarily because I can never identify who is calling. It's gotten to the point where I simply didn't answer my phone if I didn't know who was calling, and I might have screwed myself. The other day, I decided to answer a message despite it saying "private number," and it was a staffing agency. I wonder how many legit calls I missed because the DSCC doesn't get the message that I am not donating right now.

      "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

      by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:47:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yes, tons, but not as many as (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Barbara Lee, almost every day.

      I've never given to either and am out of state for both. I don't mind the frequent out-of-state appeals from  Sean Patrick Maloney, because I did donate to his campaign the first time.

      I expect to hear again from candidates I supported in the past. The telephone calls from Keith Ellison's campaign got to be a bit much, eventually. And, as I've mentioned before, I'm starting to get testy about the frequent rattle of Admiiral Sestak's tin cup... for 2016.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:28:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If Rahall loses narrowly in WV-03 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, Skaje, WisJohn, ehstronghold

    I'm going to really wish WV Democrats had drawn a map like this:
     photo WestVirginiaDem1-2StateView_zps03109a1e.png
     photo WestVirginiaDem1-2Summary_zps4d2c6296.png

    One can dream right? ;) Obama actually won the 3rd by 3% in 2008 and Kerry by 6, while the 2012 average gets 5% more Democratic and no one running statewide won by less than 17%, even Darrell McGraw who lost. The 1st is barely more Republican and unless Capito stepped down for 1 term before running for senate, it would have been an open seat in 2012 with Glen Gainer having all of his base in it (he did 1% better there than statewide and Manchin did the same).

    Of course they wouldn't have been this aggressive, but they could have put Charleston in the district and dropped areas in the southeast of the district that he lost in 2012 instead.

    •  I will say I understand one reason that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      they didn't gerrymander and basically passed a no-change map. West Virginia has the lowest partisan polarization of any state in the country, so unless you're doing blatantly obvious shifts like putting the Obama-voting Charleston in with the 3rd, it can be kind of pointless to move things around, especially at the state legislative level. For instance Evan Jenkins' state senate district is actually fairly Democratic judging by how pretty much every statewide Dem in recent years has done better there than overall and Huntington went strongly for Obama in 2008.

      That being said, they still passed a crappy map since they left the 2nd with the hardcore Republican panhandle while Glen Gainer should have been a better candidate than Nick Casey as a multi-term statewide elected yet he's stranded in the 1st with an incumbent Republican. It's nowhere near Arkansas level, but it could have been better, especially if Rahall loses by just a few points and Charleston could have made the difference.

      •  The Eastern Panhandle (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY, sacman701, Taget

        isn't really hardcore Republican.  It was one of Obama's better (or less bad) parts of the state.

        It doesn't have as much of a Democratic tradition as most of the rest of WV, but it does have an increasing amount of DC exurban influence which makes it less conservative culturally and closer to nearby parts of MD and VA politically as well as geographically.

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 07:46:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But downballot it is (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Taget

          What I was meaning is that it's pretty typically Republican and not nearly as elastic as the rest of the state. Just look at the state legislative level where Dems didn't really outrun Obama like they did everywhere else.

          That's in sharp contrast to the southernmost counties such as Logan, Mingo, or McDowell which were among Obama's worst but among Democrats' best everywhere else on the ballot. Basically without the Democratic tradition you allude to, West Virginia would be solid Republican so it's kind of pointless to talk about Obama's performance. As I said above polarization is very low in the state, but if you look regionally it's higher in the panhandle while in southern WV there's no correlation between presidential and downballot performance.

  •  A little essay-writing music (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    for the weekend (though not all of us have to write about Clifford Geertz and Eric Wolf).

    https://www.youtube.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:39:52 PM PDT

  •  GALLUP: Parents have favorable view of Common Core (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    For all the fuss and controversy over Common Core about 35% of parents have a positive view of it compared to just 28% having a negative view. As I suspected a large portion of people (37%) don't even know what it is confirming my thoughts that this is one of the most overrated issues right now. Only a small portion of the population seems to be the ones complaining the loudest.
    Link

    •  Funny (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14, betelgeux

      I don't think I know anyone who likes Common Core.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:43:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Most parents are probably only passively aware (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, betelgeux, KingTag

      of it. I think this is an issue that connects a lot of liberals and conservatives. I, for instance, disdain textbook company overreach, and them force-feeding a course platform for teachers. Especially one as poorly designed as CommonCore. Literally, there is an entire internet full of complaints about CommonCore math pedagogy, fueled partially by one proponents comment that "A student could say 4 x 3 = 11 could still get the question right as long as they were able to explain properly why they got to that answer."

      CommonCore math is simply bizarre and as a tutor who has had to deal with it, its quite frankly bizarre. For instance, my first grade students, when subtracting 7-4, didn't use the standard method that I and everyone I ever knew learned, which was simply that you have to memorize the basic axiom of relations between numbers and learn what subtraction is as a concept opposed to addition. They would make number lines, write out 7, and four, then make little humps between each number, and count out these humps. They were pretty depend on this method actually, and it was just one of the examples of convoluted pedagogy, which I think is often too advanced in its conceptual aspects for elementary level foundational math.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 04:02:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I've seen a lot of pictures of math problems (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, KingTag, wadingo

        posted online that make common core math look weird, specifically subtraction.  These images don't come with a lot of context, but it seems to be that people object to teaching something like 34-28 as being equal to 6 because you add 2 to 28 to get 30, then add 4 more to get 34, and 2+4=6.

        Traditionally (I'm in my late 20s so I learned substraction in the early 90s) subtraction was taught to kids by lining up the numbers over each other, and subtracting each column.  If a digit of the top row was lower than the one on the bottom row, you did "borrowing".  In hindsight it's a mess and nobody does math like that in the real world, but that was the method considered easiest to teach to kids back then I guess.  I'm not opposed to trying something new.

        •  Nobody does borrowing in the real world? (0+ / 0-)

          I do if I don't have access to a calculator and I can't easily eyeball the difference.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 04:44:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  To be honest, I'm terrible at higher level (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, bjssp, KingTag, wadingo

            math, but I have quite a talent for basic math up to the 10,000s. Some of what they teach is that different for what I would do to solve a problem in my head. For instance if someone gave me say, 3-4 seconds to solve 154-87, I would do it like this [100-87=13, 154-100 =54, 54+13=67], and in that way I do completely elide borrowing in typical math. Even finding percents works like this. For instance, say, you have to calculate what 3% of 347 dollars is. Just multiple 3 x 3, take your nine, and then multiple 3 x 47/100, to get your answer; 4.41 (it's so simple, yet your apartment manager will look at you like you're fucking rain man or something). Compartmentalizing math is essential for a lot of accurate, simplified use, but I still maintain you have to learn the larger functions first before you compartmentalize.

            But the issue with early CommonCore math is that its not teaching kids the

            concept
            of subtraction. It's teaching them to count up. The same thing for big numbers. They just do little talley marks for 100s, 10s, and 1s, and count how many more are in each column and write that down. It probably makes teaching it a lot easier more generally, but many kids I saw struggling with this system did quite fine when shown the traditional approach, and in this method is sacrificing some short term proficiency (Oh, look at this superb 1st graders who can accurately subtract 437-344 with no problems), at the expense of teaching them more directly the essential logical axioms and functioning relations between numbers.

             

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:30:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Concept was supposed to be italicized (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              not blockquoted.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:30:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  10.41 (0+ / 0-)

              for the percentage answer (I was writing fast and for a moment thought the first 300 was at a 1% rate, a mathematical typo of sorts). I'm an infamously sloppy commenter I feel.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:32:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Also, the easiest way (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen

              to multiply 47 in that example is to multiply 40 x 3, get 120, then multiple 7 x 3, get 21, and add the two. Multiplying larger numbers at the tens place, and then adding the base single digit multiplications (which are instantly memorized at this point) and doing simple addition, is the most efficient way to do multiplication accurately and quickly.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:35:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I understand your method (0+ / 0-)

              There more than one decent method of subtraction.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:36:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  The thing is early CommonCore (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                is teaching compartmentalization without subtraction; they're teaching kids to do some pretty big number subtraction (3 digit numbers that most people didn't get to until 2nd grade), without actually doing subtraction. See the problem? In my example, I'm still subtracting. CommonCore's method becomes rather inefficient when it involves just counting up from compartmentalized components to "tally" the different, and I worry about what kind of conceptual faults this shortcut is installing.

                Now if I'm doing math on paper, of course I borrow. It's the simplest way to break down a problem, especially really big numbers (not that I run into those much).

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:48:11 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I find this whole discussion fascinating (0+ / 0-)

                  I am someone for whom grade school math was a pathetic under-service...(both private and public school). I was always basically at the top of my class in math skills and could have easily done algebra and calculus at much younger ages than I eventually did (13 and 17 respectively) and in high school aced the AP exams and got a 790/800 on the math SAT.

                  Yet for all that I don't really even recall the teaching method, because now after years of not using those skills all the time I'm horrible at mental math speed. I basically have to use the computer/calculator or write it down on paper, whereas in 7th grade I was a whiz at doing mental math problems. Division without the calculator is basically a non-starter.

                  All this is to say I have no idea what the solution is for the majority of kids because the education I got massively under-served me and yet I let those skills atrophy when I did gain them. Instead of being able to ace the AP calculus exam by hand in my sleep, I use STATA and Excel to do all my stats computations and can't even remember chain rule... The fortunate thing is I at least understand what is going on with all that math so when I need to start using it frequently, re-learning it is very doable.

                  Like other commenters here I'm not really familiar with common core, but I would imagine a fair amount of us support some form of federal education standards given the wide disparity between states like those in the Deep South and the Northeast.

                  •  seriously? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    WisJohn

                    doing election statistics has reinvigorated my basic math skills.

                    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                    by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:37:56 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Well the type of math I'm referring to (0+ / 0-)

                      such as running regressions I can all do on the computer and would never dream of doing by hand on paper, plus it makes it really easy to add or subtract 6 digit numbers. Obviously utilizing numbers with a few digits is different, but how many times are you going to be doing division with numbers like that where they aren't easy enough to compare that you can say "oh that/s 2/5ths" rather than getting the exact result like you would in math class? Basically I'm just out of practice but it's scary how hard it's become for certain problems given how ridiculously easy it once was. I don't even remember how to do the majority of calculus or trigonometry, not even close.

                      I guess my point was that once you get out of the classroom and there's nothing stopping you from using computers, it because very easy to rely on them to the point where you forget how to do it without them.

                      •  Well, I think it's impossible for anyone (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        bjssp, wadingo

                        at the undergraduate level to be doing regression by hand.

                      •  If you don't use it, you kind of lose it, no? (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, wadingo

                        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                        by bjssp on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:37:06 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  My grad school stats professor taught us (0+ / 0-)

                        and made us do a t-test, from scratch. And that includes calculation Standard deviations for two seperate sets of data with 13 entries a piece. By hand.

                        As for division, as long as I have a piece of paper, I can divide anything. Even after years of not using it, I found that skill unaffected when I got to my grad school stats class. In fact there were times when I, the inept person who hate math and the way math teachers taught it (especially everything above calculus), was the only person who could set up the calculus equations for certain questions and cross-multiply fractions. I still did poorly in the class, because I'm terrible at explaining methodology.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:20:12 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  you don't need calculus for election statistics. (0+ / 0-)
            •  As an engineer.. (0+ / 0-)

              I didn't learn how to efficiently do basic math till algebra became second-nature and I started independently developing some of my own tricks that were never taught to me. I think it's less a matter of practicing beaucoup problems and more just sitting down and thinking through the math more abstractly.

              TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

              by Le Champignon on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 06:10:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  In your example (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje

              of percentages, in real life I just say "that's like 3 times 3.5, so ten and a half, which is close enough". The ability to ballpark some pretty complex multiplications (to the amazement of managers and fellow analysts alike) served me well in my career.

              Born and raised in NJ-03, went to college in NJ-06, grad school in IN-04, now live in MI-09. Economic -6.12 Social -8.31 The Republicans turned me into a Democrat

              by Don K on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:24:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Carrying is more efficient than (0+ / 0-)

            borrowing, but it’s almost never taught.  A very simple example: given the subtraction 456 - 279, the carrying method proceeds as follows.

            9 and 7 is 16, write down the 7 and carry the 1 [to the 7]; 8 and 7 is 15, write down the 7 and carry the 1 [to the 2]; 3 and 1 is 4, write down the 1.  The difference is 177.
            The underlying assumption is that you know the basic addition table cold.  It’s one of exactly two things that I learned in seventh grade math — I was already studying calculus on my own at the time — and both of them were extras that the teacher added on his own.  (The other was that since -40° C = -40° F, conversion from °F to °C and vice versa can both be done by adding 40, multiplying by the appropriate coefficient, and subtracting 40.  The only thing that changes is the coefficient, and it’s easy to get right.)

            For mental arithmetic, though, it’s easier to notice that 279 is 21 less than 300, and 456 is 156 more than 300, so the difference is 21 + 156 = 177.  This is the method described by Skaje in connection with 34 - 28, and it does have a place in mental calculation.

            •  Whatever works for you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BMScott

              Doesn't seem simpler to me!

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 06:21:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It’s not a large difference. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14

                With borrowing you may have to borrow from several columns over, if the minuend contains a string of zeroes, with corresponding changes in all of the intervening columns; with carrying you always work with just one column at a time.

                There’s a second small advantage for some of us.  I don’t actually think in terms of 12 - 9; I see 9 and a target of 12 and think ‘9 + ? = 12’ — except that ‘9 + 3 = 12’ is so much a part of my mental machinery that a separate stage ‘9 + ? = 12’ doesn’t really occur.  As a result, in practice subtraction is almost just a special case of addition for me, rather than a completely separate operation with its own operation table.  However, I’m pretty sure that this is a function of the way my memory works, so that it would not be a universal advantage for the method.

            •  You see, that seems incredibly complex to me (0+ / 0-)

              In fact, I can't even follow it at all and it makes no sense to me the way it is explained. However, all I have to do is look at the problem and what instantly follows through my head is [400-300=100, 300-279=21, 456-400=56, 56+21=77, 77+100=177] That may be the same problem. While it seems complex, it really isn't. It's just a matter of making a few very direct whole number subtractions that are the path of least resistance, and adding the results together. That's how I do it in my head at least. On paper, I would just very rapidly write out the borrowings, which I feel work better in logical terms with subtraction.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:25:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  WTF? (0+ / 0-)

          It must be because I am reading this so late, but what the hell does this mean? "it seems to be that people object to teaching something like 34-28 as being equal to 6 because you add 2 to 28 to get 30, then add 4 more to get 34, and 2+4=6."

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:28:38 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            I don't really think that teaching subtraction as addition is a good logical foundation for higher math skills, and even if its value neutral in results, which hasn't been seen yet, the way common core inacts it is rather convoluted to say the least.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:29:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  If you look online (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, wadingo

            and see the typical criticisms of common core math, it centers around the idea of teaching subtraction as a game of addition to get from the lower number to the higher number, rather than traditional subtraction of each digit, and borrowing if necessary.

            For instance, traditional grade school subtraction of 108 minus 95 would involve:

            8 - 5 = 3
            0 - 9 requires borrowing.
            Now 10 - 9 = 1
            And then 0 (formerly 1) - 0 = 0

            The answer is then 13.

            Whereas, you can view the problem as a process of addition instead.  95 + 5 = 100.  Then 100 + 8 = 108.

            So just add the two steps...5 + 8, and you get 13.

            Essentially, the latter method is how I do all subtraction now.  For instance, 1248 - 956 = 292.  I did that in my head, same process...956 + 44 = 1000.  And then 1000 + 248 = 1248.  So just add 248 to 44, and you get 292, the answer.  There's really no other way to do it that I know of short of getting a calculator or pen and paper.

      •  Are you talking about the actual (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Midwest Leftist, wadingo

        standards, or about some specific implementation of them?  The standards that I’ve seen at www.corestandards.org don’t specify, for instance, what method students should use in order to perform subtraction.  Concerning subtraction in first grade, for instance, the relevant standard seems to be this one:

        Add within 100, including adding a two-digit number and a one-digit number, and adding a two-digit number and a multiple of 10, using concrete models or drawings and strategies based on place value, properties of operations, and/or the relationship between addition and subtraction; relate the strategy to a written method and explain the reasoning used. Understand that in adding two-digit numbers, one adds tens and tens, ones and ones; and sometimes it is necessary to compose a ten.
        Mechanically compose a ten is just carrying, and the implied level of understanding is identical to what was taught in my first grade class in 1954-5. What it says about subtraction is precisely about ‘what subtraction is as a concept opposed to addition’.
        •  That's the most baffling and tautological (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, betelgeux

          Explanation of a teaching method I think I've yet seen. However, rereading it, I see no inconsistencies. That is essentially exactly what I said and saw:

          using concrete models or drawings and strategies based on place value, properties of operations, and/or the relationship between addition and subtraction; relate the strategy to a written method and explain
          i.e. drawing out number lines and counting the intervals between them.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:54:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But that’s the point: (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Midwest Leftist, wadingo

            it isn’t a teaching method.  It’s a description of what someone would like kids to be able to do by the end of the year.  I agree, however, that a student who understands the technique that you described has met the goal, though that’s certainly not the only approach that does so.

            I’m not even opposed to concentrating on that kind of conceptual understanding in first grade; some memorization will occur naturally along the way, and there’s time to finish the job in the next year or two as the operations become tools rather than ends in themselves.

    •  I would like to facilitate this discussion. (0+ / 0-)

      WI Public TV did a story on it recently.

      http://wpt.org/...

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 07:44:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Common Core is a threat to democracy IMHO (0+ / 0-)

      There are no standards for civics education in the Common Core standards at all.

      If you wonder why we have a stupid electorate in this country, blamed NCLB and Common Core for it.

      •  Blame something that's come out within (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, wadingo, Setsuna Mudo, MichaelNY

        the last couple years for a problem that's been happening for generations?

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:03:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There's a number of other things... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          ...that can be blamed for the fact that we have an electorate in this country that is full of people who don't know how our government works (in fact, I named one other factor in my above comment).

          If civics was taught much more in this country than it has been in recent decades, we'd have a far more informed electorate.

  •  Also, I vote that David or James (0+ / 0-)

    use this song some time for the weekly open thread:

    https://www.youtube.com/...

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:53:51 PM PDT

  •  Any Dems speaking up yet on WI-6? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jj32, BMScott

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 03:57:24 PM PDT

  •  CO-04 (6+ / 0-)

    Looks like state sen. Scott Renfroe beat out Ken Buck at the CO-04 GOP assembly (basically a caucus/convention) by 54-46%.  The only visible effect this has is that Renfroe will get first placement on the primary ballot, but it does demonstrate that Ken Buck is unlikely to just waltz into congress after the switcheroo with Cory Gardner.  I thought Buck would be able to dominate among the crazies that attended this event, but I was wrong.  That said, third place attendee Barbara Kirkmeyer released her delegates when she was trailing, so it's possible Buck might have prevailed in a 3-person contest.

    The sad thing is, Buck took the most heat for being the only one of the three candidates to not endorse the personhood ballot initiative (which will go down in flames with less than 30% like it did in 2010 and 2008).

    All three are from Weld County.  Renfroe is a state senator for much of the area.  Buck is the county DA.  And Kirkmeyer is county commissioner.

    Kirkmeyer and 2006 RI-Sen candidate Steve Laffey (who lives in CO-02 now) are collecting signatures to get onto the ballot.  Buck and Renfroe are already guaranteed spots because of their assembly performances.

  •  AR-Sen: Have Pryor's odds improved? (7+ / 0-)

    The two polls from this week were a welcome wrench in the CW there.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 04:03:07 PM PDT

  •  I'll have quarterly race ratings out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    madmojo, BMScott

    in both standard and interactive map format starting with the senate on Monday now that the fundraising quarter is over and most states have seen their filing deadlines pass.

    It's been rewarding learning how to use GIS software lately making those state legislative pres-by-ld maps since there's so much you can do with it, but it's really annoying Google's Fusion Tables app has a 250mb quota (the 435 house district plain map is over 60mb) that requires you to juggle multiple accounts to get around.

  •  The most conservative Democratic ticket. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, Jorge Harris, Skaje, Taget, geoneb

    I was looking through my comment history last night, and I came upon this thread we had back in October.

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    Just for LOLs. :)

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 04:50:19 PM PDT

  •  The changing face of America (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, wadingo

    I thought this was a really cool article by national geographic. They created a mural of what the average American will look like in 2050 and how interracial marriages and millennials are driving the "evolution" of what Americans will look like.

    The last century of American electoral politics was defined by racial issues, and in the Obama era I think were seeing the end of that period and the beginning of a post racial society where young/future voters just don't see race in such hostile terms.

    It's almost impossible to imagine electoral politics without a racial angle, but I think we are heading in that direction.

    Link

    •  I hope you are right... (0+ / 0-)

      ...the alternative is so much worse:

      Could America Become Mississippi?

      Working at Northwestern University, psychologists Maureen Craig and Jennifer Richeson apply that question to demographic change, and, in particular, to white Americans vis-a-vis the prospect of a United States where the majority of Americans are drawn from today’s minorities. Does a threat to one’s status as the demographic “in-group” increase political conservatism? The answer, in short, is yes....

      And you don’t have to imagine this future. You can see it right now, in the Deep South, where our history weighs heaviest. In Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama, elections are polarized by race: Whites vote one way, blacks the other. The result is constant acrimony, huge disinvestment in public goods like education and health, and a political culture where the central question isn’t “how can we help each other” but “how can I stop them from taking what I have.”

      A frightening thought to say the least. The hope is that the younger generations will prevent the kind of racial acrimony of the last generation, but there's still a lot of old timers left before a "post racial" society could take place, and they can do a lot of damage in the meantime.

      It's not over yet, not by a longshot...

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 07:21:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not seeing it (5+ / 0-)

        Yankee states, the northeast corridor, and the west coast are far better educated to be anywhere near that racially polarized.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 07:24:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  judging by the increasing interracial (7+ / 0-)

        relationships in my generation and ever increasing multiracial people, I'm not too worried about that.

        "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

        by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:47:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  This is absurd. (12+ / 0-)

        Mississippi was a slave state. Following slavery, it had a century-long period of rule by white supremacist terrorists. This is a very particular historical and cultural context. It's ridiculous to extrapolate from this to the experience of, like, a growing hispanic population in Washington state or whatever.

        Ask yourself a couple of questions: if growing diversity leads whites to become more conservative, why has this not occurred in New York, California, Illinois, southern New England, and the other blue states that have been rapidly diversifying in recent years?

        And: if growing diversity leads whites to become more conservative, why are young whites, who belong to the most diverse generation in the nation's history, more liberal than any older generation?

      •  That used to be the conventional wisdom. (5+ / 0-)

        That the higher the black population of a state the more the white vote is polarized and the more conservative it gets.  Until it hits some magical elastic point like in Maryland and then relaxes.

        And that is why states like Mississippi and Alabama were more conservative and Republican than "border states" like West Virginia, Missouri, and Kentucky.  Of course that theory hasn't been true in a long time with Appalachia realigning.

        Religion might be a better nexus to look at.  White evangelical protestants (many concentrated in the South and the "border" South) being overwelmingly conservative and Republican.  And catholic whites being more open minded and being at the very least swing voters.

        Of course that used to be the theory of Louisiana politics.  That the Cajuns were the swing voters of Louisiana and whichever party could court them the best would win.  And which was why Democrats were able to be competitive and win races there.

        Of course a lot of Cajuns have since then become a lot more committed conservatives and a lot more partisan.

        Drawing two lessons.  First that perhaps "southern sensibilities" trump everything.  But perhaps more importantly that the political landscape changes far faster than we give it credit for and by the time we figure out what is going on our understanding is often obsolete.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:33:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I feeling conflicted on the Colbert Late Show move (9+ / 0-)

    On one hand I really like him and I'm glad he's moving up, but on the other I absolutely love his faux-conservative persona and will really miss that.

    Then again, the right-wing media is absolutely losing their shit over the move, so it's probably a good one.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:12:44 PM PDT

    •  Still a lot more fitting than this role from 2004 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Avedee

      when he played a murderer tormented by guilt on Law & Order: CI:  http://voice.fan.tv/...

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:34:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or as Chuck Noblet on "Strangers with Candy." (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Avedee

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:53:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  TN-GOV: Mark Clayton removed from ballot (5+ / 0-)

    The Tennessee Democratic Party has had Mark Clayton removed from the Democratic gubernatorial primary ballot, arguing that he is not a bona fide member of the party.

    We still have no chance at winning this race, but at least now we can avoid nominating a candidate associated with a Southern Poverty Law Center designated hate group again.

    http://www.tennessean.com/...

    30, pal of Foot Foot, VA-02 (resident), NJ-01 (my old ancestral home)

    by footfootfoot on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:54:18 PM PDT

  •  Got a fellowship with the Sandra Fluke campaign (13+ / 0-)

    Just wanted to let you all know. I'll be staying in LA during the summer to help her campaign.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

    by Alibguy on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 05:54:24 PM PDT

  •  Why didn't Quinn get the Paterson/Perdue treatment (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    I think it's ridiculous more wasn't done to retire Quinn, instead we have to divert money & resources to defend a deeply unpopular incumbent who's pissed off his own base. He's bad for congressional races we need to win this year and could hand over the Governorship to the Rs for 4 or 8 years. Paterson in NY and Pedue in NC felt the pressure from the party to step aside for the good of the party. Quinn's ego seems to get the better of him but I think a few calls from the WH could've moved Quinn out of the way quickly. The WH could've lined up a strong primary challenger, cut off funds, called for Quinns retirement considering that he was a lot of sway in his home state. It seems a failure on the part of the IL Dem Party for not acting hopefully keeping Quinn on won't hurt our candidates downballot as badly as I fear.

    •  I think the time for this kind of comments passed (5+ / 0-)

      The fact is that no-one defeated him in the Democratic primary despite to try.

      Now we have two options P Quinn or B Rauner. I think it is time to help P Quinn defeating B Rauner.

      The Democratic party need to repeat not the same mistake that was done with J Corzine.

    •  Not nearly that simple (5+ / 0-)

      The entire theory of politics at work here is divorced from reality.

      1) Paterson and Perdue were caught up in scandals that pointed to failures in office. Quinn is unpopular for making a series of decisions that while difficult, were basically necessary (we can debate the details).

      2) The White House couldn't just line up a primary challenger. Doing so would have alienated Quinn and had he won a wildcat primary (very possible) he would have owed the party nothing. Plus, he was the sitting LtGov when Obama first ran for Senate. There's a relationship there.

      3) Who would they have lined up? Your best bets would have been Madigan or Raoul. Both have real weaknesses that Quinn's populist positioning could have exploited. Madigan didn't drop out because she was bored, she bailed because her path to victory was narrow and the risks and rewards didn't pan out.

      4) It's important to remember here that Quinn had massive backing from the state and local party. He is the first candidate in a contested Gov primary in over 20 years to be slated by the state party. He was slated by the Cook County Democratic Party. Early on he had strong support from the Latino community and early last year the vast majority of Downstate County Chairs endorsed him. Kicking him to the curb would have brough the ire of large swaths of the Democratic Party.

      5) It's important here to remember that political parties are organizations dedicated to winning elections, much as we would wish it. They are organizations dedicated to taking and keeping power. Elections are a big part of that, but not all. Loyalty is also an important part of power. If elected officials believe they will be thrown to the curb at the first sign of trouble they have little reason to do things like pay their dues or take tough votes. That's why party organizations generally have to back incumbents and dumb money into the campaigns of incumbents about to get blown out.

      It's a brand new rock.

      by RevolutionRock on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 07:34:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  President Obama attacks voter suppression head-on (13+ / 0-)

    He gave a speech today that I really hope augurs a new argument from the Democratic Party heading into this midterm election. Story here.

    Appearing at Al Sharpton's National Action Network conference, Obama cited a 2006 DOJ analysis showing that out of 197,000,000 votes cast for federal elections between 2002 and 2005, only 40 voters were indicted for fraud.

    "For those of you who are math majors, that is a percentage that is 0.00002 percent," Obama said, drawing cheers from the crowd.

    Obama then pointed to who he considers to be the real perpetrators: the people behind these "bogus" claims.

    "Let's be clear," Obama said. "The real voter fraud is people who try to deny our rights by making bogus arguments about voter fraud."

    I make no bones about my main issue in American politics being enfranchisement and protecting the right of the people -- each person -- to easily cast a meaningful and equal vote. And with Republicans clearly hoping the same voters who gave President Obama two terms in office stay hope during the midterm -- and attempting to enact policies in some states to rig the process against those voters -- it's critical that Democrats fight back and call these political thugs out on their anti-democratic tendencies.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 06:05:06 PM PDT

  •  Republican wins CT Special Election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, abgin

    http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/...

    I called this earlier today ;) a surprise actually.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 06:12:39 PM PDT

  •  NY Assembly: Investment banker goes all Warrenite (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, LordMike, bjssp

    Specifically, a wealthy investment banker who was a Republican until 2007 is now running a progressive populist campaign much in the vein of Elizabeth Warren.

    I don't know much about this guy, so if any NY Kossacks could give further info, that would be appreciated.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 06:25:35 PM PDT

  •  House of reps graphic of the 2002 Iraq War vote (7+ / 0-)

    and how those who crossed party lines at the time have thinned out dramatically:
     photo 113thCongress-House2002IraqWarResolution_zpsc5215ef7.png
    (click for full sized)

    I was shocked to learn there actually is a single one of the original six Republicans still in the house who voted against it and it's someone totally out of right-field, John Duncan TN-02 (his seat has longest current streak of not electing Democrats, since 1854). The others were surprisingly John Hostettler (IN-08), less surprisingly Amo Hougton (NY-29, current NY-23), Jim Leach (IA-02), Connie Morrella (MD-08) and unsurprisingly Ron Paul (TX-14). Lincoln Chafee was the only Republican senator to vote against.

    Originally 82 Democrats voted yes while 127 (including Sanders) voted no and Solomon Ortiz didn't vote. Of that 82, just 18 remain and 7 are in the greater NYC area while 15 are in Obama districts:
    Adam Schiff
    Brad Sherman
    Henry Waxman - Retiring
    Adam Smith
    Gene Green
    Sanford Bishop
    Ron Kind
    Bill Pascrell
    Steve Israel
    Carolyn McCarthy - Retiring
    Carolyn Maloney
    Joe Crowley
    Eliot Engel
    Nita Lowey
    Stephen Lynch

    While 3 are in Romney districts:
    Matheson - Retiring
    McIntyre - Retiring
    Peterson

    Four of those votes are retiring while Peterson isn't going to last around too much longer and Bill Pascrell is 77. So that will be just 14/82 who are still around in the 114th Congress and I highly doubt 40% of today's members would have voted in favor had they been in Congress 12 years ago.

    In the senate things aren't so rosy with 10 of the current 55 having voted for it, however of that number 3 are retiring and 1 might lose reelection:
    Chuck Schumer
    Tom Carper
    Jay Rockefeller - retiring
    Bill Nelson (could retire in 2018)
    Mary Landrieu - could lose
    Tom Harkin - retiring (quite surprised on that one)
    Tim Johnson - retiring
    Maria Cantwell
    Dianne Feinstein (could retire in 2018
    Harry Reid (could retire in 2016 or resign in 2019)

    It really is amazing how just reading the house roll call is like reading a list of residents of an old folks home or a casualty list. 2010 wiped out a ton of Bush/Bush/McCain district folks like Gene Taylor who voted for the war.

  •  Is Kathleen Kanes political career on life support (0+ / 0-)

    This scandal involving the dismissed sting operation involving the corrupt pols has really blown up on her and it seems she hasn't responded to it properly in the media. I think it's too early to declare her dead politically over this but she really needs to turn this around hire a top notch PR team would help. She plenty of time to recover from this since she isn't up until 2016. It's a shame though because I saw her as one of the most promising Dem pols in the state possibly a Senator or Governor one day but this scandal leaves a big scar on her.

  •  Michelle Bachmann: "I might be back someday". (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.twincities.com/...

    From the article:

    She cited her efforts to secure construction of a new Stillwater bridge and widen Interstate 94, ...
    These are the only two things she actually got done in Congress.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:05:03 PM PDT

    •  To be fair, they are both important (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, WisJohn, wadingo, MichaelNY

      E-W traffic through MSP is atrocious at rush hour.

      But I think she will have another ego-stroking run at president in 2016, and fall flat on her face again.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:16:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know it is. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        She deserves credit for those two things, and I give her that. Heck, name the much-needed Stillwater bridge after her.

        My point was that what else of worth did she do in 8 years?

        By the way, where on 94 are those lanes? Are they the ones that are going to Monticello?

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:31:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I hope she returns to the campaign trail (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      and I hope voters love her just as much as they have in the past.

      "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

      by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 09:00:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Bush or Clinton: The Most Important Poll Today (6+ / 0-)

    I give you the most important poll of this month:

    Who is better at dodging flying shoes?

    Bush or Clinton? Make sure you vote. Our democracy depends on it!

    http://slog.thestranger.com/...

  •  WI-SD-15: Poll shows Sheridan 'well-positioned'. (0+ / 0-)

    http://elections.wispolitics.com/...

    Former Assembly Speaker Mike Sheridan, who was defeated in 2010 (in a 64-36 Obama'12 district because he was caught literally with his pants down) is competitive in a hypothetical primary vs. Rep. Janis Ringhand

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 08:57:42 PM PDT

  •  Obamacare is working now what? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sulthernao, MichaelNY

    Just to eloborate on what Gnome said upthread, about how Obamacare is now starting to become less of an issue. Earlier this week Maddow talked about it, using it as her lead in Tuesday night, on Scott Brown's 2010 election as her backdrop, and now his 2014 run. And how this time around, the times have changed and it's not like 2010. I thought it would be worth while posting the like links.

    Points is, GOP 2014 motto was going to be Obamacare non-stop. That was their plan A, B, C ,D. Nothing else. And with seven months left, now they have to look for something to run on. And now that the sign-ups exceeded exceptions, it's very funny they're in denial and looking for an excuse and something to run cause they don't have nothing else.

    Part 1

    Part 2

    NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 09:01:03 PM PDT

    •  We'll know (6+ / 0-)

      In my mind, we'll know that they are truly in trouble when they start running ads claiming that Democrats want to cut your Medicare. lol  But, really, this is kind of their last resort attack when they've run out of issues, so I eagerly await to see when they are going to start up that old lawn mover of a tactic.

      In competitive races, anyway, they aren't going to be able to use same-sex marriage as a wedge issue, at least not like they used to.  We've got the minimum wage and equal pay issues to bash them with 'til kingdom come.  I suspect they are going to ride Obamacare until the wheels come off.  Obamacare is not completely out of the woods  as an issue that they can use against us, but it's really all they have left.

      I think they can try and beat the deficit and debt drums, again.  But even there they've found themselves overplaying their hand (debt ceiling, government shutdowns, etc...) because they can't keep their suicide caucus under control.  I think that even their outside groups have the potential to cause them heartburn.  AFP in particular has caused some backfires.

      They are lucky for their gerrymandering, because it means we have to work far harder and far more creatively than they do to get votes.  But, I thank god for their relative incompetence.

  •  NYTimes on 2016 Senate races: (4+ / 0-)

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/...
    Johnson has troubles, as does Kirk.  McCain and Grassley could retire.  Toomey and Ayotte may be in striking distance considering it will be a presidential year.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 09:18:10 PM PDT

    •  Assuming Hassan stays uber-popular (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Avedee, wadingo

      could she have what it takes to take down an incumbent in 2016 like Shaheen did with Sununu?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 09:23:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

        NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 09:58:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PassionateJus, sulthernao, wadingo

        Kelly Ayotte is, surprisingly, fairly popular. But she doesn't have the history in the state that Shaheen has (which, fundamentally, is why NH isn't particularly competitive this cycle), and New Hampshire has been steadily moving leftward. Hassan is a strong candidate, and it'd be a true battle of the titans.

        But in a battle of the titans, in a blue-trending swing state in a presidential election, we win. Just ask Senator Kaine from VA.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:37:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Leftward? (0+ / 0-)

          In 2010  - too? I would say New Hampshire swings wildly, from rather solid left (as in 2006-08) to solid right (2010) and back lo "somewhat left" in 2012. Number of Democratic seats in state House varied these years between about 30% after 2010 and 55-58% in other years. I don't know such second state.

          •  look farther back than 2006 (5+ / 0-)

            and yes, the state has shifted toward the Democratic Party over the long term.

            "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

            by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:44:07 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If you mean (0+ / 0-)

              "last 50 years" - of course. There were very few elected Democrats from North New England then (but - more moderate Republicans)

              •  then why did you nitpick? (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sapelcovits, Midwest Leftist, wadingo

                "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:03:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Because (0+ / 0-)

                  usually we don't talk about such distant past. And of recently New Hampshre is more "famous" not for "steady shift to the left", but for that swingy behavoir i mentioned above.

                  •  I wasn't aware that more than a decade ago (7+ / 0-)

                    was ancient history.

                    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                    by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:13:25 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Let's end on this (0+ / 0-)

                      When we speak about current politics - decade is considerable time. And i don't see too big shifts in New Hampshire politics during this time either: slightly (beginning with Kerry popularity in the state) to the left at most, but with big swings in wave years (of which there were a lot recently)... No more..

                      •  Your method of arguing (12+ / 0-)

                        Is quite peculiar to our sub-site. First you belligerently point out how someone's take is wrong (with a bit of a condescending tone), then when an obvious flaw in your point (and there generally seems to be some willful, almost ideological flaw, generally related to your desire for a return to an idealized version of past politics), you respond by getting defensive and then telling people you won't bother responding to them any more, and that oh, one more time, this is why you're right. This formula gets rather old, considering that its so unnecessary for discussions of punditry.

                        Lastly, you're simply wrong. Political trends are real, and they do represent changes in the typical voting patterns of a state. They represent a party's overall electoral strength, and their likelihood of getting elected. New Hampshire was, for decades, until the 1990s, considered a conservative bastion in New England. Democrats lost the state in six consecutive Presidential elections between 1968-1992, and in every single one of those elections, they lost it by a larger margin than they lost the popular vote. Dukakis received only 36% of the vote in 1988.

                        Between 1969-1997, Republicans held the state's governorship for 34 of 38 years. Since then, they have held it for 2 of 17 years, with that governor. Craiq Benson, becoming the first incumbent Governor to lose reelection in NH since the Great Depression (and he only narrowly won in 2002 to start with). Between 1911 and today, Democrats were large minorities in the New Hampshire State Senate, only controlling it briefly in 1998 for a brief time, and 2006-2010. They did not control the State House at all between 1922-2006, however have since held it consistently save for the 2010 wave, which is not a function of the state's politics so much as a function of its small unprofessional state house, and the swingy nature of many of the Senate seats.

                        Since the early 1990s, however, the state has trended Democratic. Democrats have become a much stronger legislative party, taken control of the executive council a few years back (for the first time in 80-90 years I believe), gone from losing it 6 times in a row in Presidential races to winning it 5 of 6 times, 3 by a larger margin than their national margin. They've had an impressive run on the governorship as well. To restate abgin, the long-term trends are clear in NH. It's gone from a reliably Republican state to a swing state that has a consistent Democratic lean and is trending more Democratic, not least because the Republican vote in the state is heavily concentrated in the 65+ vote.

                        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                        by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:37:38 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Well, i know history rather well (0+ / 0-)

                          (including - political one) and don't especially need any historical lectures here. Including - this particular lecture from you. I know perfectly well that from "ancient" times until at least 90th New Hampshire (just as majority of northern New England in general ) was very republican and only occasionaly voted for Democrats. That it elected people like Meldrim Thompson as governor, that it heavily voted for Reagan and so on . I also could recite names of Gordon Humphrey, Norris Cotton and many other succeessfull Republican politicians, and speak about New Hampshire people "instinctive" dislike of any sort of taxes, and more.

                          But in this particular context i meant recent politics and recent years, because the subject discussed was chances of Democratic and Republican candidates in next election. So, New Hampshire move from solidly Republican state since the end of 70th to purple state by about 2000 had little relevance with discussed theme. I consider my only error the fact that i didn't stressed this enough. That's all.

                          But again - when i will need lesson in history - i will ask for one myself. Until then - i will find out what i need myself.. Thanks!

                      •  You're young, in reality a decade is nothing (7+ / 0-)

                        New Hampshire is best described as purple now but with a very slight blue hue, but no question it continues to inch left.  The fact that the state party establishment embraces Scott Brown proves that point......only in acute weakness does a state party recruit for a U.S. Senate seat a guy who has never lived there and recently lost in a U.S. Senate election in a different state.  A healthy state party would reject him.

                        And NH was actually dark red--not just modestly red---as recently as the 90s.  The first sign of a Democratic resurgence was in '96, when Clinton's 49% was the best by a Democrat since '64, and the only time since LBJ that a Democrat even reached a measley 44%.  Shaheen, too, won NH-Gov that year, the first time a Dem won that office since 1980.  The state legislature was always uniformly Republican.  But it wasn't clear a Democrat could repeat that year's performances, and that Shaheen wasn't a uniquely popular individual.

                        A Democrat didn't reach 50% in a Presidential in a state in my lifetime until Kerry.  Then Obama repeated twice.  Before Kerry, LBJ won in a romp there, and before that it was FDR's last campaign when a Democrat won.

                        Like I said above the Brown recruitment is telling, as is the Dems controlling at least part of the state legislature for so much of the past decade, and the fact that pretty liberal Democrats have won and held U.S. House seats there at various times the past decade.  Even Ayotte had to be recruited from a non-partisan appointed office to run, they didn't have an elected official they trusted with that nomination in 2010...that's telling, and another sign of weakness.  And NH-Gov has been won by a Dem in 8 of the last 9 contests, and that's with 3 different nominees notching Dem wins.

                        NH isn't moving fast like Nevada or New Mexico.  It doesn't have the demographic shift to do that.  And movement could stop at any time and leave it as-is.  But the fact is the state has kept moving left, and the lack of credible candidates for high office speaks to that...Democrats haven't had that problem.

                        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:44:05 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I am slightly over 55 (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          DCCyclone

                          So i am really young..

                          •  If you're 55 (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv, DCCyclone, PassionateJus

                            why are the 90s not recent history to you?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:01:38 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  In fact - 57 (0+ / 0-)

                            It is, but not in context of THAT post.. My note related only to last 10 years. Otherwise it would be rehash of the obvious: New England (especially - northern part) became much more Democratic and somewhat more liberal in the last 50 years, South - much more Republican and somewhat more conservative, and so on... That's a sort of political axioms now, which don't require serious discussion. It's simply so..

                            When i speak about tendencies - it's usually something more quick and tangible. For example - Arkansas, which was very Democratic on all , but presidential, levels 10 years ago.  West Virginia. Even Oklahoma (almost all statewide posts were occupied by Democrats then) or Louisiana (Governor Blanco, Democratic majorities in legislature, and so on..). And yes - Nevada and New Mexico - 2 examples of rather rapid movement TO Democrats..

                            P.S. The earliest political events i remember - Kennedy's murder and Goldwater campaign (Au + H2O = (nuclear explosion))

                          •  Even the last decade alone... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            PassionateJus, MichaelNY

                            ...reveals that NH has kept inching left.  The ability to recruit candidates is one big factor......the GOP went with someone who had never run for office for NH-Sen 2010, then with a long-failed perennial candidate for NH-Gov 2012.  Now they're going out-of-state for a defeated ex-Senator...they couldn't find anyone in-state...and Brown still isn't an automatic lock for the nomination.

                            Democrats always have had a credible elected official for most offices the past couple years.  Even after losing U.S. House seats in 2010, then won them both back in rematches the very next time.

                            The NH GOP actually reminds me of Virginia Dems at various points the past 15 years.  It's because state Dems were decimated that we had to go with people who had never won an election to anything for 2 of our last 3 Governors, and for VA-Sen 2006.  That's damn lucky and concealed a deep weakness that we won those.  But Virginia is inching left because of demographic shift, so we can be more optimistic here going forward than the NH GOP can.

                            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:19:50 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Well, yes and no (IMHO as usual) (0+ / 0-)

                            Democrats erred with Senate cadidate in 2010, coupled with a stellar Republican year that gave easy victory to Ayotte (and Lamontagne would win in 2010 too). A lot of people in New Hampshire are transplanted  "citizens of Taxchusetts", so Brown is not so much a "carpetbagger" here as he would be in other states. And in 2010 Republicans won about  70% of seats in state legislature - just as in "old times".

                            Yes, Democrats won both seats in House in 2012 after losing them in 2010, but rather narrowly, and they risk to lose NH-01 in 2014. Yes, after 2 years of O'Brien "leadership" in state House, and torn between Paulists, socons and few remaining moderates (who would be best general election candidates, but have great difficulties winning republican primaries) Republican party of New Hampshire is split  in many ways (example - NH-02, where Kuster is not especially strong, but republicans doesn't have credible candidate so far). Nevertheless - the state is "democratically-leaning purple" (like Virginia you mentioned) at best, but - with extreme swings depending on years...May be(though so far - not especially likely) it will become next Maine, and then (who knows) - next Vermont, but it will not happen very soon

                            And Governorship is mostly Lynch achievement, who even managed to hold it narrowly even in 2010. But he was relatively moderate on fiscal matters, that helped too.

                          •  You seem to equate an anomaly with the norm (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            The long recent history I recited has been the norm, and 2010 was an anomaly.  It makes no more sense to point to 2010 as meaningful for the NH GOP than it does to point to Democrats controlling 3 of 4 U.S. House seats in Mississippi after 2008 as meaningful for our side in federal races in that state.

                            You're completely wrong about "mostly a Lynch achievement," which is remarkable because I pointed out in an earlier comment in this sub-thread that this winning streak in NH-Gov races has been with 3 different Democrats.  So no it's not "mostly Lynch."

                            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:56:53 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Again - i limited myself (0+ / 0-)

                            mostly to post-2000 years. In these years it was mostly Lynch. Hassan - in 2012 only, and we shall see how she will fare later, in this (mostly neutral) year, and, probably, 2016. And i think - to determine what's an anomaly and what - the norm in New Hampshire we will need 10 more years.

                          •  We get It; Stop Digging (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            The majority of us feel that the 90s are recent and very relevant to the discussion at hand.

                            You disagree. Great. We disagree with you. Great.

                            Why keep arguing?

                          •  I have no desire of arguing (0+ / 0-)

                            That's why i offered to stop it.

                        •  I'm under 30 (5+ / 0-)

                          anything in my lifetime is recent history.

                          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

                          by James Allen on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:24:39 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, long term trends are clear in NH (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, wadingo, MichaelNY

            The election results in NH in the 80s show from where the state come.

      •  2016 Senate map is uplifting. (0+ / 0-)

        GOP seats:
        AL (Safe R)
        AK (Safe R/Race to watch)
        AZ (Tossup)
        AR (Safe R)
        FL (Lean R/tossup with Prez run by Rubio)
        GA (Likely R)  
        ID (Safe R)
        IL (Tossup)
        IN (Lean R/Tossup if Bayh runs)
        IA (Safe R/Tossup if Grassly Retires)
        KS (safe R)
        KY (Lean R)
         LA (Likely R)
        MO (Lean R)
        NH (Tossup)
        NC (Lean R)
        ND (Safe R)
        OH (Lean R)
        OK (Safe R)
        PA (Tossup)
        SC (Safe R)
        SD (Safe R)
        UT (Safe R)
        WI (Tossup)
        WY (Safe R)

        Dem Seats:
        CA (Safe D)
        CO (Lean D)
        CT (Likely D)
        DE (Safe D)
        HI (Safe D)
        MD (Safe D)
        MA (Safe D)
        NV (Lean D)
        NY (Safe D)
        OR (Safe D/Likely D if Wyden retires)
        VT (Safe D)
        WA (Safe D)

         

        D in FL at the SSP.

        by Avedee on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:22:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wyden isn't retiring. (0+ / 0-)

          "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

          by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:43:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Connecticut is safe (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ProudNewEnglander, wadingo, Avedee

          I'd say it's certainly as safe as Washington and Delaware are. Richard Blumenthal is a long-time officeholder there, and he's an inoffensive incumbent in a state that heavily favors his party.

          •  Absolutely, I'm expecting Blumenthal (0+ / 0-)

            to win in a landslide in 2016. I think he'll be the first candidate in Connecticut history to win a million votes in a single election.

            (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

            by ProudNewEnglander on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 03:23:35 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  DE, MA, and WY aren't up in 2016 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Avedee

          FWIW my map looks like this:
           photo Senate2016_zpsfdd098df.png

          Iowa is assuming Grassley retires, if not it's Likely R against anyone but Vilsack. Arizona is McCain retiring or getting teabagged. In Kentucky I'm assuming Rand runs for president, while Marco Rubio doesn't in Florida. I think you're way too optimistic on Missouri, even if Nixon runs. Blunt is modestly popular and we're very unlikely to carry the state making it all but impossible to beat him.

          Right now I see us picking off Illinois and Wisconsin and probably Pennsylvania along with Iowa if Grassley calls it quits.

          •  I've a few disagreements (0+ / 0-)

            This far out, I wouldn't be willing to call MO, AR, LA, or ND/SD as "safe".

            AR depends on how well Pryor does. If he wins, we have a shot there. Maybe Vic Snyder or Marion Berry will take a stab at it if the winds start to reverse there. If HRC is running, she'll likely have some coattails in the state, even if we lose it.

            LA depends on how well Landrieu does and if we can find a compelling candidate (considering the seat is likely to be open or only recently held, since Vitter is running for governor).

            MO is definitely not as Republican as you think. These days, it's very much like Indiana - Republican at its core, but elastic and willing to vote for moderate Democrats. I think it's very possible we carry the state if Hillary runs. Nixon is a strong candidate too.

            ND/SD are pretty obvious - we won ND in 2012 with the Scary Black Dude at the top of the ticket, with someone who hadn't been in elected office in over a decade, and against a sitting US Congressman who represented the whole state. It's going to depend on the quality of candidates we get there.

            I also see no basis for FL being lean-R. Is Rubio really all that popular? I doubt it.

            TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

            by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 05:12:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  ND is safe (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              propjoe, Avedee, jncca, sacman701

              It's being represented by a very very very popular former Governor who likely would have easily defeated the moderately popular longstanding Senator Dorgan had Dorgan decided run for reelection.

              24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 05:14:32 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  If Hoeven retires, however, it might (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, sacman701, MichaelNY

                be competitive. He's probably not going to retire, though.

                "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                by bjssp on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 10:19:46 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Part of it for me was also priorities. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Stephen Wolf

              Democrats are going to be gunning for Blue/Swing states before going after the red ones. It's quite possible we end up with some good candidates in those states but just from this far out I don't see it. LA/AR Landreiu and Pryor are really the only federal dems left and they are both in the fight for their political lives. MO could get interesting but it seems like it's moving quickly to the right but Jay Nixon or Koster  could make it interesting. The Dakotas seem hopeless if the incumbents run again but things could work out if the stars align right, they retire and we get a decent candidate while they get stuck with a terrible candidate. In FL I have it at lean simply because our bench is terrible in this state but Pat Murphy is an exciting prospect.

              D in FL at the SSP.

              by Avedee on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 09:20:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

            I guess I was tired and just put a few extra ones on there/mixed a few up.

            D in FL at the SSP.

            by Avedee on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 09:14:32 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Delaware (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Avedee

              is an easy mistake to make (I thought it was up in 2016 too) because Coons was first elected in 2010 in the high-profile Christine O'Donnell race; that just happened to be a special for the seat that's up this year.  

        •  If Bayh runs in Indiana (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Avedee

          It's not Tossup, it's Lean D. Likely D if Coats retires.

          But he won't. I think he's running for Governor.

          26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 05:20:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  PA, WI and IL are the main targets (0+ / 0-)

      NH and OH next.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 03:57:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ayotte is playing a very treacherous game. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wadingo, MichaelNY

      She wants to project a moderate enough image to get re-elected yet has national ambitions for at very least Vice-President and also has to keep her conservative credentials burnished.

      So far she has actually balanced things out pretty well.  But one mistake and the mistake is more likely her being too conservative than too moderate and she could be vulnerable.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:05:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  there's no political geography thread on here (0+ / 0-)

    so I thought I would put it here. What was Eastern LI (Nassau and Suffolk) like before WWII?

    My guess is that it was mostly like rural New England, overwhelmingly WASP and republican and a vacation home for the rich (think of someone like F Scott).

    more anti-conservative than liberal

    by bonzo925 on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 10:45:04 PM PDT

    •  You're pretty much right, I think (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, wadingo

      Much of LI was farmland, but there were some suburbs particularly closer to the city and along the railroads.  They were mostly WASPy, and very rich in some cases, such as on the Great Gatsby's North Shore.  Further south they were less posh but still mostly well to do.

      Greater diversity mostly came after WW2, first with lots of Irish, Italian, and Jewish migrants, mostly from the city, and later minority group members as well.

      38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:00:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Long Island (0+ / 0-)

        was long dominated by Italian-American Republicans after WWII. It wasn't really until the 1990s that extensive changes in the suburbs began to actually make Democrats competitive there.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:14:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nassau even before the 90s had a substantial (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, wadingo

          dem contingent. The county (except for 1980) was never more than R+5. The hapless Hubert Humphrey got 43% there, the exact same as he did nationwide. My 70s "Almanac of American Politics" explains that Nassau was more heterogenous (it mentioned that a quarter of the electorate was jewish) than Suffolk and more dem leaning.

          But oftentimes Rs would do better downballot in Nassau than Suffolk because Nassau Rs tended to be more moderate and they had a better county party organization (Margiotta and D'Amato as two examples). Suffolk conversely was a hotbed of the conservative party (a buckleyite organization) and the Rs were often too conservative to win the congressional seats.

          more anti-conservative than liberal

          by bonzo925 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:19:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Suffolk County was one of Nixon's biggest fans (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, wadingo

          It voted over 70% for him in 1972, making it his best county of large population in the nation.  I have an NY Times newspaper from when Nixon resigned and it has a sub-article about how Suffolk County residents are taking the news.  It mentions how it was one of his best counties and the Republican activists there are busy sadly removing their bumper stickers, banners, and other paraphernalia.  Yet they were still hopeful for their future.
          Suffolk County last voted Republican in 1992.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:29:18 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  though one of the Suffolk districts that was R+10 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, wadingo

            dumped a six term R incumbent for a 25 year old no-name law student by the name of Tom Downey.

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:52:42 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  And they had a Dem County Executive (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, wadingo

              during the height of Republican voting there.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:08:06 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Reminds me of the 1947 movie (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                WisJohn, SaoMagnifico

                "Miracle on 34th Street."  The DA of Manhattan is trying to argue before a state judge that the man Criss Cringle is insane.  The attorney for Mr. Cringle discusses the case with the judge, saying that if he rules for the DA, it would be on all the papers and destroy the Christmas spirit everywhere.  He then goes political by saying that it would cost the jobs of many unionized workers in retail and manufacturing and that by his next election, only the DA would vote for the judge's re-election.  To which the judge rebuts: "But the DA is a Republican."

                “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

                by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:35:57 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  Nassau County was once described (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, LordMike, wadingo, Setsuna Mudo

          as a Swedish-style social democracy run by Italian-American Republicans. I don't remember who said it, but it seems right.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:00:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Since it's the weekend, I should add (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, ehstronghold, wadingo

            that their inability to manage the county's finances has made the last 10-15 years very difficult. It's sort of like a microcosm of the country as a whole: voters are very happy to get lots of services, but when the time comes to pay the bills, they are less than enthusiastic, and putting them off, as Nassau legislators seemed to, makes the problems worse.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:22:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ed Mangano's (0+ / 0-)

              whole campaign last year was built on the premise that he was the best thing that ever happened to Nassau since sliced bread since all he did was cut taxes. And it worked....sadly.

              The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

              by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 04:15:19 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Mangnano was probably the beneficiary (0+ / 0-)

                of good timing more than anything else. I don't think the national recession hit LI as much as did other parts of the country, so it didn't fall as hard, and then things got better from whatever low point they were at.

                "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:19:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  the nassau republicans are there own worst enemy (0+ / 0-)

            if i recall, there "machine" collapsed under rampant corruption.

            more anti-conservative than liberal

            by bonzo925 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 01:23:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Wayyy down in the weeds (17+ / 0-)

    The UC Berkeley campaign season just ended this week, and it was full of vitriol and mudslinging like nobody has ever seen before.  It's almost amazing how nasty this campaign has been.
    Calserve, the incumbent party, represents what I would term the "activist left."  This is their first year in power after the better part of a decade losing to Student Action, the "establishment" party whose candidates range from liberals to registered Republicans but stand united in their opposition to the activist left.

    Calserve's first year in power led to strong backlash, beginning with their initial push for divestment from Israel, followed by a highly contentious meeting with UC President Janet Napolitano where ASUC (student gov't) President DeeJay Pepito selected students who would call Napolitano a human rights abuser.  The meeting lasted only a few minutes, with each student verbally attacking her, at least one comparing her to Hitler, and then everybody walking out before Napolitano had a chance to respond.  This turned many students vehemently away from Calserve in the run-up to the election, but they still are by far a better organized party than Student Action.

    In the presidential campaign, Calserve nominee Naweed Mohabbat came under fire from fellow and former senators for trying to have it both ways on divestment.  Speaking to the Middle Eastern Student Association, he called himself a supporter, but 4 days later speaking to the Jewish Student Union, he said divestment was not the right path.  After video footage of the two side-by-side came out and an attack website sprung up (http://mohabbatdishonesty.wordpress.com/), Mohabbat backtracked, ultimately stating that he supported divestment but misspoke due to feeling uncomfortable at the JSU.

    Student Action nominee Pavan Upadhyayula is by all accounts bland, uninspiring, and neither polarizing nor beloved.  He is basically trying to reap the benefits from Calserve's year in power, but his party is the weaker of the two on an organizational level.  Of the 20 senators elected last year, Upadhyayula came in dead last among them.

    Add to this Pierre Bourbonnais, a semi-satirical candidate who has become prominent enough to be featured on Buzzfeed (http://www.buzzfeed.com/...) but whose message is that the divided campus needs to come together.  Bourbonnais seems to be attracting lots of support from disillusioned students who dislike both nominees.

    With results coming out next Thursday and an instant-runoff system, nobody knows what will happen, but it's very exciting (and depressingly nasty) and I will keep you posted.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:43:57 PM PDT

    •  Wow, you have political parties of your own? (6+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:04:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't most campuses? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian

        That's very normal in California.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:05:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, not here at Rutgers (0+ / 0-)

          the closest thing is the Student Union, which is run by socialists (real ones, not the slur used for left-wing Democrats).  

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:07:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Even agrarian UC Davis? (0+ / 0-)

          I'm asking because that's where my parents went to college and met.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:20:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They have slates at Davis. (0+ / 0-)

            I'm not sure whether they last from year-to-year or change each year, but candidates are identified with a certain faction.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 01:43:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I have never heard of that in my life (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          betelgeux, wadingo

          public vs. private school thing, perhaps?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 04:25:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  on second thought (0+ / 0-)

            I think people at my alma mater may have run under party banners (I vaguely recall a Coolmoose Party or something) but I don't think those were actual parties that had any organizational structure, I think they came and went from election to election...

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 04:27:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Cool Moose Party is in Rhode Island (0+ / 0-)

              And the Cool Moose Party runs candidates in actual elections. There's some old information about it here. Since that was written, their most notable result was getting 39% in the 2010 Lieutenant Governor race (no Republican ran). But they took respectable shares in the 2006 and 2002 races, too, each of which had a Democrat and a Republican: Cool Moose took 13% in 2006 and 18% in 2002.

      •  You don't? (0+ / 0-)

        Even my alma mater had them; not that they did anything. (Minnesota State University-Mankato, if you're curious).

        MN-01, long time lurker

        by Jervill on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:41:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How much power does the president have? (4+ / 0-)

      In almost all cases I've seen, student body president is just a powerless position that attracts people who like to hear themselves talk. Of course, the people who are elected think themselves very important indeed, but it's just bluster and narcissism. Since it's Berkeley, though, I'm guessing it might be different?

    •  Wow (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Gygaxian, betelgeux, wadingo

      I'm glad UC Berkeley hasn't completely lost it's radical tendencies. Here at SF State our habits for radicalism basically died after we got the Ethnic Studies and Caesar Chavez buildings.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:02:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So that was all it took? (0+ / 0-)

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:17:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Pretty (0+ / 0-)

          much, but getting the Ethnic Studies building was a BFD since SF State because the first university in the nation to have an Ethnic Studies program. Plus these days SF State is a commuter school so many of us don't have the time to get involved in high profile and controversial causes like boycotting Israel, calling Obama a war criminal and protesting Google Buses.

          We do have a club for marxists on campus though, they pop up once in a while to hand out their socialist newspapers and whenever all the clubs, sororities and fraternities set up booths in Caesar Chavez plaza during the first weeks of the new semester.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:30:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  You're at SF State? (0+ / 0-)

        I have a cousin who teaches Japanese Business Studies there (well, he used to, not sure if he is still after coming back from a year in Japan he spent).

        "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

        by gabjoh on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 12:14:30 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  interesting (3+ / 0-)

      When I was there, there were 3 main parties. Calserve was the campus lefty party, and there was a conventional liberal party called Students for Progress and a moderate-conservative party called BeARS. When I first got there the president was Matt Denn, who is now the lieutenant governor of Delaware. I think he was from Students for Progress.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:31:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wow (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, geoneb, betelgeux, wadingo

      There's a difference between being a leftist activist, and from being a shallow idiot and asshole.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:12:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What happened to Student Action? (0+ / 0-)

      When I was there (for those who don't know, I graduated in 2012), it was by far the most organized student political party on campus. It was almost the "natural governing party," with CalSERVE being a sort of rabble-rouser.

      24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

      by kurykh on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:15:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, I really have no idea. (0+ / 0-)

        They collapsed as soon as you left.  They only contested 1 of the 4 exec offices (president) this year.  2 of the 4 are essentially uncontested, with an independent running for Executive Affairs Vice President.

        21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

        by jncca on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 01:44:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Your description makes everyone look awful (6+ / 0-)

      Your comment makes all involved look so bad that were I student there, I'd write-in "abolish student government."

      College is a wonderful time to indulge in political fantasy.  It sounds like some of these characters do just that, to their own future embarrassment when they look back on themselves in 20 years.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:23:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Berliozian, gabjoh

        I think student government is stupid and a waste of time and effort.

        24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:56:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sounds like you lost an election once. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, Audrid

          Only joking. I do agree with you to some extent. Other than something to put on a resume, it is pretty powerless.

          Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

          by WisJohn on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 07:25:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nope (3+ / 0-)

            Never ran for anything ever in student government. I legitimately think student governments are absolute stupidity. They are feckless, ridiculous, and dumb.

            Also, if someone came into my office and had student government on their resume, a bunch of the people I work with (including myself) would look at that negatively. If that's a central piece of someone's achievements, I'd laugh them out of the office.

            24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:15:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  At least in NC, student body pres has (0+ / 0-)

              semi-important duties.  They are a voting member of the Board of Trustees for the university.  Our Board of Trustees has thirteen members, twelve of which are hand picked by either Pat McCrory or the Board of Governors, the members of which are hand picked by Thom Tillis.  So it's likely that the SBP is the only trustee who didn't bribe their way in.

              A lot of people who are successful politicians on the state or national level started out in student government, btw.

  •  OR-Gov: Kitzhaber has $567,000 on hand (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, bythesea, wadingo

    "I join Justice Ginsburg's dissent in full." - Clarence Thomas in Philip Morris USA v. Williams

    by James Allen on Fri Apr 11, 2014 at 11:52:52 PM PDT

  •  new diary (0+ / 0-)

    If you are interested, I writed a new diary that talk about the parth for a Democratic majority in the US Senate after 2018 elections.

    The diary is looking at the overall picture, with a poll where you can contribute to build a common opinion abut the path.

    Always without forget the fight in the short term (this cycle).

  •  DRA problem (0+ / 0-)

    Starting yesterday, when I've tried to use DRA, the map is overlaid with a message saying "Invalid Credentials. Sign up for a developer account at: http://www.microsoft.com/... I don't know what caused that message to appear, and I haven't been able to make it go away. Has anyone else experienced the same problem?

  •  So what the hell is going on in Nevada? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:10:48 AM PDT

  •  Burtonmander (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, ehstronghold

    Thirty years on, California's 1981 reapportionment is still considered a gold standard in partisan redistricting and convoluted line-drawing. The congressional map, masterminded by Congressman Phil Burton of San Francisco, shifted the California delegation from 22-21 Democratic to 28-17 Democratic (California had added two seats).

    As far as I know, the state assembly map was not drawn by Burton but was no less brutal for the Republicans. This is one safe GOP district, based in the San Fernando Valley:

    http://statewidedatabase.org/...

    Any other horrendously drawn legislative districts?

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:35:57 AM PDT

    •  A few (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      For reference, here is the index. AD-65 links part of San Bernardino near Los Angeles to outer San Bernardino by a tiny connecting piece. AD-37 doesn't look too bad, until you realize that it links Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Simi Valley to Lompoc in Santa Barbara County through vast stretches of forest in Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. This also makes AD-35 ugly. AD-21 has a weird tail into sparsely populated parts of Santa Clara County for who knows what reason. The way AD-16 and AD-17 in San Francisco are drawn is just odd, and I'm guessing Willie Brown had something to do with it. AD-10 is just gross: it takes in the Republican Discovery Bay area in Contra Costa, Lodi in San Joaquin, and then threads through Sacramento city to take in some parts just north of it.

    •  I also just took a look at the Senate districts (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, sapelcovits

      They're indexed here. Some of them are hilarious. SD-02 looks really funny. SD-14 connects the Sierra Nevadas through a bunch of farmland in the Central Valley to the San Luis Obispo and Monterey coastline. SD-19 looks normal until you see that half the district is on another page, and, well, just go look at it. It's impossible to describe succinctly. I have no idea what's going on with SD-31. SD-37 manages to link Seal Beach to Imperial County.

  •  CA-GOV: Kashkari only has about 900k on hand (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, ehstronghold, MichaelNY

    As a result, he says he will run ads in targeted ways, not statewide.

    I would be surprised if some super PAC did not get involved on Kashkari's behalf, given the negative consequences for CA GOP with Donnelly as the nominee.

    •  not an easy decision (5+ / 0-)

      A Donnelly win could hurt the GOP downticket, but only if the race gets a lot of attention. If it gets no more attention than the Senate race got in 2012, it won't matter who Brown's opponent is. That said, it's possible that Brown will run negative ads to focus more attention on Donnelly, whereas Feinstein had no reason to go negative on the inoffensive Emken.

      Any dollar the GOP spends to get Kashkari through will be unavailable for ballot propositions or the handful of competitive congressional and state legislative races.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:30:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could Donnelly be used (0+ / 0-)

        as a drag on the downballot Republican ticket by airing his extremist ways and then tying him to the Republicans running below him?

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:40:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I can't imagine that it wouldn't get attention (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, jj32, PassionateJus, wadingo

        In 2012, there was the presidential election, and Emken was pretty much generic Republican. But in 2014, the gubernatorial race is at the top of the ballot, and there isn't even a Senate race to compete for attention. And I somehow suspect that Donnelly would end up doing something to draw attention anyway.

    •  He looks Lex Lutheresque. (0+ / 0-)

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:30:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Think Kashkari would depress GOP turnout more (0+ / 0-)

      Their excited about Donnelly he excites the base but nobody is excited about Kashkari. He's a 'RINO' I can't see many pubs turning out to enthusiastically for Kashkari like would for 'Tea Party Hero' Donnelly.

  •  Klobuchar back in Iowa again... (0+ / 0-)

    Positioning herself as a VP pick or what? Only others who've visited Iowa are Biden & O'Malley.

    Link

    •  She does have a great relationship (9+ / 0-)

      With both Grassley and Harkin. She also serves on the Ag committee. I wouldn't read too much into it, honestly.

      She doesn't have the temperament (read: sharp elbows, power hungry, etc) to run for President. Klobuchar running for president would get about as much traction as Pawlenty. Where no one has anything bad to say about her, but she never makes the headlines, and doesn't excite any particular segment of the base.

      She also wouldn't make much sense as a VP candidate for Hilary, as Clinton more in need of help in the Mountain West than the Great Lakes region.

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:22:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That, and if she's smart, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, wadingo, MichaelNY

        she probably realizes that she's got that Senate seat for as long as she wants it. She'll be 54 in May, and she could serve for another 4 terms and not be all that old by Senate standards. Why give up something like that?

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:09:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  But if she's running against Walker... (0+ / 0-)

        She may need help in the Midwest states like WI, IA, OH etc. Hillary hasn't been polling spectacularly in Iowa either so I think having someone from the Midwest with connections to agriculture and issues with region wouldn't be so bad.

      •  Unlike Pawlenty, Klobuchar has charisma and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        an actual personality. She is also significantly more popular in Minnesota than Pawlenty was when he launched his laughable presidential runs.  

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:09:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But would she shank someone (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          OGGoldy, wadingo

          as mercilessly as many others might? My guess is, no, she wouldn't.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 12:33:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I guess I wouldn't use that metaphor (0+ / 0-)

            But yes, you have the crux correct. She is too nice to really elbow her way to the front, and step on some people along the way.

            I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

            by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 02:37:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  She's nice when she needs to be (0+ / 0-)

              I'm sure she can get down and dirty if she needed to. Prosecutors like her usually wouldn't go far if they were nice all the time we just haven't seen that side of her yet. She's an able debater as well her likability is an asset though.

              •  Prosecutors (0+ / 0-)

                In my experience, prosecutors are very rapid when it comes to what to actually prosecute. A DA's career hinges on their conviction rate is. It makes them very risk averse when it comes to what they actually bring to trial.

                I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

                by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 04:42:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  With Klobuchar, it's also ego. (0+ / 0-)

                  I can see her being tougher than she looks, because she's not all that aggressive, due to her background as a prosecutor, but she still appears to lack the sort of mentality that you need to advance. It's not an insult, just my opinion, by the way.

                  Also, I don't know much about her, but she seems like the type that isn't desperate to have her name in the news and have everyone pay attention to her. She'd be happy to be in the background just being a good senator.

                  "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                  by bjssp on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:56:40 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

          •  She's not a pushover. She was a successful (0+ / 0-)

            prosecutor for years. Unless Hillary is running, the Democratic primary won't get ugly. The Clintons are really the only dirty players on our side. And the Republicans pull most of their nastiest attacks on their side. I am not too worried about her being tough enough.

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 03:06:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Klobuchar is so good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Possible Liberal

      I really hope she's on the ticket either as the nominee or the VP.

      Then Keith Ellison can run for her Senate seat.

    •  Julian Castro as well (0+ / 0-)

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:45:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hillary will not pick a Mayor as her VP (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, LordMike, wadingo, MichaelNY

        It would be a mistake to pick someone who hasn't won an statewide just ask Romney when he picked Ryan couldn't even carry his own state.

        •  Agreed it should be a statewide office winner (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, LordMike, wadingo, MichaelNY

          I would like to see someone like Michael Bennet, Brian Schweitzer, Steve Bullock, or even one of the Udalls. The Clinton brand is weak in the Mountain states that Democrats really should win.

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:06:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The VP selection for our side is far more (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy, wadingo, MichaelNY

            interesting than the presidential selection. Among other things, there's no really obvious choice if our nominee wanted to add a non-white person to the ticket. Maybe Deval Patrick or one of the Castros, but someone more high profile than someone from the House, like Menendez, is almost certainly a non-starter. And it's all the more significant because, rightly or wrongly, there will be pressure from any number of angles to make sure the ticket isn't all white. I think this is especially true if someone like HRC isn't our nominee, because if we end up with O'Malley, wouldn't someone like Gov. Martinez be all the more appealing to their side? I think so.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:15:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think it is less important for Clinton (5+ / 0-)

              The VP candidate for Hilary would matter less, as Clinton would be the face of the campaign. O'Malley would need to share the spotlight with whomever he took due to his substantially lower profile going in. Clinton would likely pick a first-do-no-harm candidate from among the long-time Clinton allies. There are no shortage of them, but most of them are white. I don't think that Democrats need to really force candidates onto the populace for the sake of quotas. Pick the best candidate for the job, regardless of race/sex/whatever.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:33:25 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's a good point. (0+ / 0-)

                I don't think there's any real need to pick a relative lightweight just to fulfill a perceived lacking, but there's no guarantee others will feel the same way. I just wonder how many people will feel pressure from the other side, which will feel pressure from our side's dominance with non-whites.

                This is getting a little ahead of things, but imagine for a moment HRC doesn't run and we lose in 2016 AND we are in a good position in 2020. At that point, we'll probably have more non-whites to choose from and the ones we have now, like either Castro, will be far more plausible as candidates. In this situation, it'd be a free for all.

                "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

                by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:45:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not sure that pressure will be there (4+ / 0-)

              Clinton, as the first female nominee, would be an historic candidate, so I dont think there will be pressure to select a non-white male to be the VP choice.

          •  Bennett is up in 2016 (0+ / 0-)

            I'd rather him commit to being re-elected than him being snatched by Clinton leaving us to find another person to run for his seat. Bullock seems fine a Governor so a 'Washington outsider' and from an area she's weak in.

          •  Colorado is key (0+ / 0-)

            And has a good number of candidates that can be a good election for VP.

            The Democratic Party has a long bench there including younger people and minority people:

            K Salazar
            J Hickenlooper
            W Ritter
            M Udall
            M Bennet
            F Peña

            While is not the conventional thinking, in the place of H Clinton, I would have in the top of the list for VP:

            1.- B Obama
            2.- Someone from Colorado
            3.- G Locke
            4.- H Solis

            •  Assuming B Obama is Barack Obama (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              abgin, jncca, MichaelNY

              I doubt he would want to be Vice President after serving as President for 8 years, but even if he did, he wouldn't be allowed to under the 12th Ammendment.

              No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.
              Because Obama has served 2 terms as president, he is barred from serving another term, and hence ineligible to run for President again. Because of that, the 12th means he is also ineligible to run as VP.
              •  Ah Ok, thank you (0+ / 0-)

                It is a curious ban. I don't think he would have a "better plan" for the following years, but if it is not allowed, nothing to do.

                Then Colorado would be in the top of my list.

                1.- Someone from Colorado.
                2.- G Locke.
                3.- H Solis.

                The bench from Colorado:

                K Salazar
                J Hickenlooper
                W Ritter
                M Udall
                M Bennet
                F Peña

                •  Out of curiosity (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Why Gary Locke over someone like Deval Patrick or Martin O'Malley? To me, it seems he doesn't bring that much to the table.

                  He's not an overly exciting speaker, foreign policy is his strength, but it's also Clinton's strength, and the Asian American population is generally quite supportive of Democrats anyway.

                  He doesn't really seem high-profile enough to be a VP pick.

                  •  He seems an effective politician (0+ / 0-)

                    that has strong results by his own in Washington. He performed the best in his home state between all the Democratic high level politicians of the last years. Comparing with D Patrick and M O'Malley he performed stronger in his home state.

                    Being from the West can help to the political weaknesses of H Clinton, and also being minority, despite being not of one of the strongest minorities. For me he would be a politician to take into account.

                  •  Asian population is pro-Democrat (0+ / 0-)

                    but very low turnout.  Locke could boost turnout.  However, most Asians live in blue states anyway.  Unlike Hispanics, who help in Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada, Asians only help in Nevada and Virginia.  Nowhere else is above 4% Asian by population and expected to be competitive in 2016.  And I'm not even sure Nevada will be competitive.  After that it's Colorado at a measly 3.7%, which means about 2% of voters.

                    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                    by jncca on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 01:51:25 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Purely as a technical matter (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Possible Liberal, abgin, HoosierD42

                The 22nd amendment speaks only to eligibility for election and not eligibility for service.  It is arguable, and the courts have not ruled, as to whether a past two term President could accede to the office but not be elected to it.  This also means that the question of election as Vice-President after two terms as President is technically unsettled.

                Even if it were ruled to prohibit standing for VP after two terms as President, as some interpret it, technically, it would appear to be constitutional, in the event of simultaneous death of the President and VP, for a previous president serving as Speaker of the House to become President.  Getting a bit more ridiculous, if we held the House, we could elect a past two term President as Speaker of the House and then have the elected President and VP resign simultaneously.  It should also be possible to appoint a VP who had previously been a two term President on resignation or death of an elected VP.  

                Obviously none of that's ever going to happen, since nobody needs a constitutional crisis either in the middle of an election or in the middle of a national emergency.  

                Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                by benamery21 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 03:23:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The Speaker of the House doesn't even have to be (0+ / 0-)

                  a Member of Congress. They can theoretically elect anyone.

                  26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

                  by HoosierD42 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 10:05:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  I assume they would just be skipped (0+ / 0-)

                  Cabinet secretaries are just skipped in the order of succession if they're ineligible to be President. Currently, Sally Jewell, the Secretary of the Interior, is skipped because she's a naturalized citizen born in the United Kingdom (the natural-born citizen rule is extremely dumb, by the way).

                  •  But the 22nd only says election (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    HoosierD42

                    if they aren't being elected, there is nothing which makes them ineligible to serve, so they wouldn't need to be skipped.  Admittedly, I haven't read the Succession Act, so maybe there's something in that, but there is no verbiage in the Constitution making someone ineligible from serving more than two terms, only from being elected more than twice, or being elected more than once after already having served more than half a term.

                    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                    by benamery21 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 10:37:40 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

            •  I'd love to see (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              abgin, MichaelNY

              Obama go back to the Senate in 2016.  Not going to happen of course...

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 03:28:06 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Keep an eye on Jay Nixon (3+ / 0-)

            "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

            by Paleo on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 05:47:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Would love to see a CO VP. (0+ / 0-)

            Udall or Hickenlooper. Interesting you mention Bennet will see how he proves himself over at DSCC.

            D in FL at the SSP.

            by Avedee on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 09:43:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          I'm just pointing out that he's been.

          24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:16:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I am not sure the goal of picking Ryan (7+ / 0-)

          was to win Wisconsin as much as it was to give a jolt to conservatives all over the country.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:24:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I still think O'Malley is at the top of the list (0+ / 0-)

      Klobuchar would not be a bad choice though.

      •  Then Hillary would be linked to botched MD site (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, KingTag, wadingo, MichaelNY

        The botched MD health exchange debacle can't and won't be overlooked if O'Malley is anywhere near the ticket. The whole thing screams of incompetence and opens up Hillary up to relentless attacks over the 120+ million spent over a failed website.

        •  Same goes for Kitzhaber (0+ / 0-)

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 02:49:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Nope, wrong (12+ / 0-)

          By summer 2016 the health care web site stuff will be distant history that voters disregard.

          This is a constant fail of the political media and political junkies, to think that stuff in the news 2 or 3 years out is going to matter in the election year in question.  It virtually never is.  A rare exception is something like a quagmire of a war like Iraq, or a stubborn recession like Obama faced in reelection (yes the recession had already "ended" the way economists measure them, but not the way voters measure them).

          The failed Maryland exchange, like the failed federal exchange rollout, will be a distant memory by 2016.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 05:37:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  100+ million dollar failure is hard to forget (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            If there wasn't that much money involved then it wouldn't be so bad but the attack ads just write themselves the way everything was handled was inexcusable and it's indefensible.

            •  It's easy to forget (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              The dollar amount doesn't mean anything.  All that matters is having a functioning exchange that works well before 2016 really heats up.  And even if it isn't quite fully functional by the time of the Iowa caucuses, it still might not matter...it's not a given that health care will matter to voters at that time.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:07:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  I'm not convinced HCR doesn't fit the latter (0+ / 0-)

            It has been issue number one or two with the economy for five years. That being said it could even be a positive by 2016.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 03:30:47 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Because no one (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, askew

          will try to link Hillary Clinton to the healthcare.gov scandals as long as we don't pick O'Malley.

          In all seriousness, no one outside of MD knows or cares about whatever happened with some website however many years ago, so it's not going to make the "issue" any more of a problem for her than it would have been otherwise.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", libertarian socialist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:19:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  All the more reason to avoid (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Giving them a real opening. Contrast with how perfect Beshear would be if he was younger and less conservative.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 03:26:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Unless there was rampant corruption in MD (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Setsuna Mudo, Audrid, MichaelNY

            with the health care site, will anyone care? Things go wrong. Look at how Amazon/UPS (among others?) botched shipping dates before Christmas. Look at how airlines fuck up times all the time. And so on. If there were something that could be pinned on him because of him not being a good public servant, that's one thing, but other than that, I think it'll be a distant memory.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:02:01 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  VP Choice Almost Never Matters (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Possible Liberal

      Unless you fumble and pick someone embarrassingly not qualified (Sarah Palin).

      And even that didn't matter since McCain was going to lose anyway (especially after the economic downturn) and since for every person who thought she was awful there was probably a true believer fired up to vote for her.

      The only thing important about a VP selection is 1) they should help the presidential candidate counter a weakness he/ she has and 2) they should not overshadow the presidential candidate (again: see Palin).

      Biden was a great choice for Obama because many people saw him as being strong on defense and knowledgeable about foreign policy, which Obama lacked. But the chattering class reacted with dismay. Surely Obama was doomed (!) since two Senators from deeply Democratic states could never win the election. Obama needed a southerner; Obama needed a governor, etc etc.

  •  The exact and town-by-town results are available (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Possible Liberal

    for the Mass. special elections almost two weeks ago: http://www.sec.state.ma.us/...

    The State Senate special: http://electionstats.state.ma.us/...
    More proof of territoriality in New England.  The Republican was a Melrose councilwoman and won it by a hair.  Melrose was 60% Obama and 52% Warren in 2012.  The Dem was from Winchester (which is only mostly in the SD, not completely) and won it by over 2-1.  By comparison, it was a 55% Obama and 52% Brown town.

    Then there's the Westfield HD, where the Dem outperformed Obama by over 1% in a pickup: http://electionstats.state.ma.us/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:38:43 AM PDT

    •  The territoriality is certainly very prominent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Here are the results for the state Senate election that triggered the state House election in Westfield. Humason, of course, was the state Representative for Westfield, and the Democrat, David Bartley, was the President of Holyoke Community College. Bartley had previously been a state Representative from Holyoke and Speaker (!!) of the state House.

  •  HRC's 2014 Memoirs Gets New and Amusing Title (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I've received inside word that her 2014 memoirs, dealing with her time as SOS, will not get a boring title like My Time at Foggy Bottom.

    In her inner circle, there was a lot of back and forth over what the title should be. It is, after all, an opening move for a possible presidential campaign. After a lot of careful deliberation, the title will be What REALLY Happened That Night In Benghazi And Why Primarying Your Republican Congressman Is The Only Accepting Punishment For Missing It.

    Sounds like a winner, if you ask me.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:38:53 AM PDT

  •  Ryan Lizza's Article on Chris Christie (6+ / 0-)

    I forget if this has been discussed here. If you haven't read it, you should. There's a lot of good info on him and on the Democratic machinery of New Jersey politics, but this part stood out, mostly because it was amusing:

    The bridge scandal might never have been revealed if not for the sleuthing of Loretta Weinberg, a seventy-nine-year-old self-described nosy Jewish grandmother who is also a Democratic state senator from Teaneck, New Jersey, just northwest of Fort Lee. “I bungled into the Port Authority issue, just out of my curiosity,” she told me.

    In September, Weinberg read an item in the Bergen Record about the traffic jam. A commuter told the paper, “Other than after the 9/11 attacks, I’ve never seen such a fiasco of delays at the inbound, upper-level part of the bridge.” A senior official at the Port Authority promised Weinberg that he would “get to the bottom of it,” but when she didn’t hear back she became suspicious. “My training comes from having raised children through their adolescent years,” she told me. “ ‘What do you mean you didn’t have a party? You weren’t even smart enough to put the beer cans in someone else’s back yard.’ That’s my investigatory background.”

    I don't really know one way or another whether Christie had anything to with the scandal, but given how easily Weinberg came across it, isn't it fair to say the people that are responsible are just stupid, along the lines of distracting the 7-11 clerk while robbing it by throwing your wallet with your ID in it at him?

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 11:52:27 AM PDT

  •  CA: Field poll has the GOP candidates ahead (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    in the races for state controller and secretary of state

    I'm hoping this is more a function of the two top primary. That seems to be the case for controller, where Swearengin leads with 28%, and Democrats Betty Yee(19) and John Perez(14) are splitting the vote.

    In SOS race, it's Pete Peterson with 30% and Alex Padilla with 17%.

    link

  •  John Tierneys primary challenger raising big bucks (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Seth Moulton is about even with Tierney he has about 650K CoH compared to Tierney's 700K CoH and Moulton has already out raised Tierney before. The fact that he's doing so strongly against a incumbent money-wise makes me think this primary should be more closely looked. I wonder how much money Tierney will be left with after the primary not to mention there won't be a Libertarian candidate next time if he faces Tisei again.

    Link

    •  But the primary poll showed him way behind (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      I wonder if Tierney has rehabilitated his image and used his surprise victory to mend fences.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:10:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also saw the poll with Tierney tied with Tisei (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Avedee

        He's as vulnerable as he was in 2012 and he was damn lucky to survive then now he has to pull it off in a lower turnout midterm with no Libertarian candidate. Moulton has no baggage with an impressive background who should have no problem winning in the GE. Money and resources shouldn't have to be diverted from other races  to hold a safe blue seat every cycle. Tierney is putting this district into play and has given an opening for the GOP he's damaged goods we shouldn't even be talking about MA-06 being competitive but it is again and again with him.

    •  Moulton is running for 2016 (0+ / 0-)

      The money is aimed at deterring anyone else from challenging Tisei next cycle, assuming the latter wins this year.

      •  Seems a disastrously unwise assumption (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Tierney looked so certainly a loser last time that he cancelled his own ad buys for the final weeks!

        Then he won!

        Under the circumstances, looking at candidate and campaign behavior, Tierney's win was a bigger upset than Pat Quinn's in IL-Gov a couple years earlier.

        Whatever Moulton and Tisei or anyone else is "assuming" at this point is foolish to assume.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:52:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure anyone thought Tierney would survive (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          and yet he did. I remember posting that here on election night. I am almost never first with polls or results, and yet I was...because nobody was paying attention, since they had all written off the race.

          "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

          by bjssp on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:54:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Plus, Tisei's fundraising is drier this year (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He outraised Tierney every quarter of the 2012 cycle.  Now, Tierney has outraised Tisei over 2-1 this cycle: http://www.opensecrets.org/...

          Also, Dems have statewide races to turn out for this year and after Brown cowered away, the MA GOP is sliding back into irrelevance, even losing a Yankee Republican district in a special election in a rare bit of turnabout.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:57:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Wi-06: Rep. Stroebel in. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, BlueSasha

    http://wispolitics.com/...

    He was elected to the Assembly in a 2011 special election  in a district based in Ozaukee County.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 03:29:50 PM PDT

  •  So I went to the SLCO Dem convention today (5+ / 0-)

    And I will tell you what happened (by the way, this was my first time as delegate).

    General things:

    -Good turnout, probably about a thousand or 1100 attendees.

    -Utah Dems really love their amendments to amendments.

    -Everything was about half an hour late.

    -The County Party platform was modified to be more liberal on healthcare and labor issues, while affordable housing was modified with more moderate phrasing.

    -There was one guy who was really insistent on changing the phrasing on "democratic republic" to democracy, on the grounds that he hated the Utah GOP's use of "constitutional compound republic". Said guy was also responsible for the more liberal phrasing on healthcare and labor.

    -The Progressive and LDS Dems Caucuses were fun, with about a turnout of about 35 in the Prog caucus and 300 or so in the LDS Dems. I managed to succeed in a motion to establish a free Youtube channel for all SLCO Dems to use, even if they're a "ballot-only" candidate. It was a unanimous vote, which was cool.

    State Senate
    -Former State Senator Ross Romero was crushed by former Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jani Iwamoto, which was surprising to everyone. Since they had represented the same area at the same time, everyone thought it would go to a primary, with a slight advantage to Romero due to his longer service. He was crushed 117 to 71. Both were center-lefty, and it's a safe-ish Dem district, so either would have been fine. There's rumors of foul play by Iwamoto (busing in Republicans, basically) though.

    State House

    -In HD 23 for retiring Dem Jen Seelig's Salt Lake City-based seat, Sandra Collins, a social health worker, beat substitute teacher and long-time Dem activist Jason Wessel and Frank Bedolla (a worker with disadvantaged kids, I think?). Of note is that Bedolla (who was eliminated first) was Hispanic, Wessel is wheelchair-bound, and Sandra Collins is a black lady. The district itself is heavily Democratic and heavily Hispanic.

    -A Michael D. Lee (no relation to Mike Lee) is running for retiring Dem Janice Fisher's district, HD 30. This is a very competitive district and Lee has a strong Republican opponent, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

    -The SLCO LDS Dem chair Alain Balmanno (who is apparently a Mormon from New Jersey with a thick Jersey accent) is running against LaVar Christensen in HD42. He unfortunately doesn't have much of a chance (LaVar's last opponent only got 33% in 2012), but an interesting guy.

    -HD 38 has a contested race between Elias McGraw (a Hispanic police retired  officer and the 2012 candidate for this district), and Chrystal Butterfield, who I know nothing about. Assuming McGraw wins, he'll face incumbent Republican Eric Hutchings, whom he got within a 1,000 votes of beating in 2012.

    -in HD 40, Incumbent Lynn Hemingway is retiring, and Justin J Miller won heavily over Sophia Hawes and Amy Fowler. Miller was a former campaign manager for Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, and was endorsed by both McAdams and Hemingway. Hawes was a social worker, I think, while Fowler was a criminal defense attorney. Hawes was also transgender, but the district seems to be relatively tolerant, so I don't think that contributed to her defeat. Miller was just a really good candidate.

    -There was also a two-way convention fight in HD 49, but other than Zach Robinson winning over Mark Quigley (both were also 2012 candidates) to have the right to lose to appointed incumbent Robert Spendlove, I know nothing about the district.

    Countywide
    -We only had one contested race, County Auditor.

    -Judging from the speeches that were given, the uncontested candidates are ready to go against the Republicans.

    -County Auditor candidate Chris Stout will go into a primary with Jeff Hatch, which is surprising as Jeff Hatch used to be County Auditor from 2006 to 2010, and Stout has been an unsuccessful candidate for 2 separate offices over the last 4 years. Stout had endorsements from all over the board, from progressives (he is SLCO Progressive Chair, by the way), to establishment, while most of Hatch's support was establishment. Stout had 54%, so looks to be in a good position going in.

    -Incumbent Republican County Auditor Gregory Hawkins lost his bid for re-election; his challenger (Scott Tingley) got 69% so it will not even go to a primary. This is bad for Dems, as we all assumed Hawkins would win and focused our rhetoric on him.

    -Incumbent Dem County Sheriff Jim Winder seriously sounds like a pro wrestling announcer when he's talking. "DEMOCRATS! ARE YOU READY TO GO?!?"

    -Incidentally, I voted for Chris Stout for County Auditor, but had no other contested races in my area.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 05:55:42 PM PDT

  •  Bad news for Gov. Haley (10+ / 0-)

    Tom Ervin has dropped out of the primary and will run as an independent Republican in the November election. Story here.

    Ervin, a 62-year-old attorney and radio station owner, said he needs more time to share his message and could not accomplish that in the short span before the primary.

    “I believe South Carolina is ready for fresh new leadership and ready for a governor who cares about our people and not selfish political ambition,” he said. “Both (Republican Gov.) Nikki Haley and (Democratic challenger) Vince Sheheen are career politicians. I’m a small business owner who will serve as governor and then return home to run my business.”

    He said he started gathering signatures of registered voters to have his name added to the November ballot as a “Republican petition candidate.”

    "I look forward to offering my vision for South Carolina as a Republican in the general election," he said.

    The hits just keep coming for South Carolina Republicans, who could be looking at unexpectedly tight gubernatorial and Senate races this year, with the entry of Brad Hutto as Democrats' leading candidate for Sen. Graham's seat, a Republican planning an independent bid if Graham is renominated, and a host of not-ready-for-primetime Tea Partiers attempting to primary Graham from the right.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:22:22 PM PDT

    •  Also maybe Andre Bauer could do likewise. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      the guy is a gadfly

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:27:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  In any event, I hope this is a reversal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        of 2012 CO-06 when an independent Dem likely spoiled our chances.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 06:35:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And of course a reversal of the 2010 incident (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I just hope Hutto can get his name rec up enough to win the primary.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 07:37:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Heh, who knew.. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea

      that we'd be seriously discussing the idea of picking up KS, MS, or SC due to Tea Party lunacy. If we win even one of these races, it's game over for them.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 07:27:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have no real hope for these (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf, wwmiv, ehstronghold, jncca

      I think Haley wins comfortably, breaks 50% so that minor candidates don't matter.  I expect Sheheen will actually slightly underperform his 2010 vote share.

      I think the GOP Senate nominee wins easily, by double-digits.  Hutto seems as good as anyone who SC Dems could nominate, but there's been zero buzz that Hutto can be competitive even if Graham loses.  I'm glad he's there for political disaster insurance, but that's all I see there.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 08:35:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why do you suspect.. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew

        Sheheen to underperform compared to 2010? You can't seriously be predicting a wave election bigger than 2010. Polling is both erratic and old, though it showed Sheheen very competitive.

        TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

        by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:17:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The (7+ / 0-)

          incumbency factor is a big one. Plus voters who didn't vote for Haley because she was Sanford 2.0 might feel more comfortable voting for her this time. Especially since Haley hasn't gone hiking the Appalachian Trail.

          The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

          by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 09:48:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yup, incumbency is biggest issue, plus... (4+ / 0-)

            ...too many political junkies, and political reporters for that matter, are wedded to viewing cycles as linear, where if a GOPer performed a certain way in 2010 they must perform worse the next time.  It doesn't work like that, there are anomalies in every cycle dotted across the country.

            In the case of SC, Haley underperformed in 2010, there obviously were issues center-right voters had with her personally that don't necessarily continue 4 years later.  From what I've seen in her news coverage, Haley has managed to keep her head down more the past year or so after a rocky early tenure, and the same usual GOP voters who dissed her last time aren't necessarily going to diss her again.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:03:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  I have some hope for SC-Gov (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bythesea

        and if the guy who beats Graham (assuming it happens) is a real nutjob like McDaniels we have a solid shot.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:06:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  By the way, if you're a fan of diversity (5+ / 0-)

    Diversity won big in Utah today. For starters, Sandra Hollins (as I said, a black woman) will probably triumph in November in her heavily Dem district. Mia Love also is also heavily favored. So not only could we elect Utah's first African-American woman to the legislature, but also the first AA/black woman to Congress (though Love is hardly the best candidate to be Utah's first black Congressperson).

    Love would also be the first Haitian-American (of any kind) and first black Mormon (and black Mormon woman).

    Additionally, if she wins her state senate race (which is likely) Jani Iwamoto would be either the first or second Japanese-American women elected to the Utah legislature. We almost elected the first transgender woman to the Utah legislature in HD 40, and also had a strong woman candidate in the district, but a white Mormon guy won instead (it's okay though, this white Mormon guy is basically a campaign genius).

    We're probably also going to re-elect a county councilwoman who stepped out for an election cycle.

    On the Republican side (besides Love), they ousted a white dude state representative in favor of his female challenger, in what is probably a first for heavily conservative and patriarchal West Jordan.

    Also at the Salt Lake County GOP convention, Orrin Hatch called Obamacare "dumbass", which is probably the only time he's said something like that in his life. So it's a diversity of language.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 12, 2014 at 10:34:48 PM PDT

  •  Bergen County, NJ Executive race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo

    As I have said before, Freeholder (and ex-Mayor of purple Paramus) Jim Tedesco is our candidate against incumbent Executive Donovan (whose history is marked with steering contracts to favored people despite her anti-corruption campaign).  Someone who worked on his Freeholder campaign last fall who is in my Dem club also plans to work his Executive race and she told me that he's a great campaigner and we should have very little to worry about in that regard.  I also hope Booker follows through on his informal plans to help downballot races this year like what he said when he met with us.  Bergen and Essex Counties are his home turf.

    Next Tuesday, I think (though I'm not sure on this) Mayor Janice Kovach (mayor of Clinton, a small reddish town in Hunterdon County) is visiting.  I'll tell you how that goes.  She's running for NJ-07 and was allowed on the ballot: http://www.mycentraljersey.com/...

    Last week, we had Asm. Chivukula, who is running for CD-12.  I don't vote there, but if I did, I'd cast a reluctant vote for Greenstein.  She is quite effective and if she wins and leaves the Senate, she will likely get replaced by Wayne DeAngelo, who is basically invincible.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 12:37:02 AM PDT

    •  As for my home turf, NJ-03 (0+ / 0-)

      I hope to do some volunteering over summer when I have time.  I hope I also get to catch the slugfest between Lonegan and MacArthur.

      Also, the LCV endorsed Belgard.  Environmentalists are quite strong here: http://www.lcv.org/...

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 12:39:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I also hope Jeff Bell is the GOP nom for Senate (0+ / 0-)

        it would be interesting to have us run against the guy who brought down the last Republican US Senator from NJ.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 12:40:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Donovan has alienated a lot of people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Think Tedesco has a good shot.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 05:45:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  HoosierD42's Weekend Court Report™ (13+ / 0-)

    Only one thing to report this week, the Senate held a cloture vote for Michelle Friedland, a nominee for the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. Friedland will replace Raymond C. Fisher, a Clinton appointee who took senior status a year ago. Fisher's duty station was Pasadena. The vote was 56-41

    The Senate is in recess and will vote on final confirmation for Friedland on Monday, April 28.

    Harry Reid also filed for cloture on 6 more judicial nominations. Cloture votes and final confirmation will probably happen during the week of April 28.

    26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

    by HoosierD42 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 02:06:17 AM PDT

  •  Thank you very much to the people that is taking (0+ / 0-)

    part in my last diary (and in all the little series). With more votes the results are more interesting.

  •  Colorado assembly (convention) stuff (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, KingofSpades

    From Coloradopols.com.

    The GOP had their statewide assembly yesterday, and Cory Gardner hit a high enough percentage of the delegates attending (73%-23%) to knock state sen. Randy "the Stache" Baumgardner off of the primary ballot.  Baumgardner could have instead collected a ton of signatures to make the ballot instead, but he likely did not have the money and campaign apparatus for that.  This means Gardner will appear unopposed for the GOP line on primary day, as all the other candidates had dropped out already.

    For the governor race, Tancredo and Beauprez didn't contest delegates since they are just going the signature route instead.  So it was a race among the also-rans for ballot placement at the assembly.  Surprisingly, former state sen. Mike Kopp narrowly beat out SoS Scott Gessler for the top spot (34%-33%), with 18% going to state sen. Greg Brophy.  C-listers Steve House and Roni Bell were eliminated and won't appear on the primary ballot.

    I expect Tancredo to easily prevail over his four remaining opponents on primary day.

    •  You think Tanc is gonna win easily? (0+ / 0-)

      Why? I got some serious longshot money on Gessler still. The assembly is not very predictive, especially for statewide races, and Scotty G has access to more money than the others I think.

  •  Oklahoma candidate filings (11+ / 0-)

    Just an indication of how far and how fast Democrats have fallen on a state level. Democrats won every statewide race in 2006, I believe; this year, they failed to even field candidates for Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, and Insurance Commissioner.

    •  Has New York published a candidates list yet? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      As for Oklahoma, I wonder if then Lt. Gov Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson could have won reelection had they not both run for governor. Our incumbent first term auditor Kim Holland only lost by 9 and the appointed auditor Steve Burrage got 44%. Edmondson at the least was a 4 term incumbent and won 62% in 2006.

      Also just an fyi we lost 1 of the 9 statewide races in 2006, that of corporation commissioner where Bob Anthony has been in office since 1989 and crushed his opponent by 17%.

      •  It's stupid complicated... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, James Allen

        Candidates in districts entirely inside New York City file with the city, which will drag its feet in getting a list out. However, I doubt anything interesting will happen outside of the Rangel/Espaillat/Walrond primary in the 13th.

        Candidates in districts outside New York City that are entirely within one county file with that county - that's just the 1st (Suffolk), 4th (Nassau), and 25th (Monroe). Suffolk and Nassau's websites are useless, but Monroe County has a list out - Louise Slaughter has one opponent, Republican Mark Assini.

        That leaves the multi-county districts, which have candidates file with the state. PDF list is here. Looks like the only districts of note among these are the 21st and 22nd.

        The 21st has primaries on both sides. Aaron Wolf has one Democratic challenger, Stephen Burke. Burke appears to be a perennial candidate. The Republican primary is between Matt Doheny and Elise Stefaniek.

        In the 22nd, Richard Hanna drew two primary challengers, Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney and Michael Kicinski. Kicinski's a Some Dude who ran against Hanna in the 2012 primary and lost 71-29. Hanna's got the Independence nomination, and no Democrat filed, so it's possible (albeit unlikely) that he could still run in the general if he lost the Republican primary.

      •  NYC is somewhat independent from NYS (0+ / 0-)

        That's why it's a bit confusing, not only when it comes to election laws, but when it comes to our courts, we have multiple courts for different aspects of the legal system for each borough/county. The three types of courts I know off the top of my head are family, criminal, and civil court. I think those are the only three. NYC is five boroughs, but on a state level the boroughs that make up NYC, are individual counties.

        And if your'e born in New York City, your birth certificate is not from the State of New York, but rather the City of New York.  You get your birth certificate from Manhattan, where the city health dept is located. If you born anywhere else in NYS, certificate will come from Albany, where it's issued from the state.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Show them how to move in a room full of vultures. -- Shawn Carter

        by BKGyptian89 on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 12:55:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Does anyone have a list of VA filing candidates? (0+ / 0-)

      And do the parties have the option of nominating someone via convention in no one filed in a particular CD?

  •  Would Bush 43's presidency be an issue (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    if the 2016 RNC is held in Dallas?

    Todd Gillman has a column in the Dallas Morning News.

    I dont think Dems can or will mention Bush much in 2016, and probably only to contrast the state of the country in 2008/2009 vs. 2016.

    But what I've also found interesting: despite his higher personal numbers(which happens to any former president), you still almost never see Republicans defend his presidency unprompted. Some will even admit that policies like the Iraq war, NCLB and Medicare Part D, pushed the party off course and helped Dems win big in 2006 and 2008.  

    So I'd be curious to see how Republicans, more so than Democrats, would handle an RNC in Dallas. I would assume Bush 43 would be appear, because it would be kind of telling if he didnt.

    •  No, Jeb as the nominee would do that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      If Jeb is the nominee and the convention is in Dallas, then that's poison for the GOP.  They might as well mail it in at that point.  They're stepping on their own convention!

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:48:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another article... (9+ / 0-)

    On Democrats' new voting rights push. Really hope this is an emerging theme and not just a passing interest, as I think this is a potent issue with legs that is really meaningful for a lot of Americans. Story here.

    To voting rights advocates, the new level of engagement from top Democrats, especially Obama himself, is welcome indeed.

    “Nothing is more important than the American people hearing the president of the United States bringing the full passion and power of his voice and his position to the issue of promoting voting rights and an open democracy for every citizen,” said Barbara Arnwine, the president of the National Lawyers Committee for Civil Rights Under Law.

    It’s not just talk, either. The Democratic National Committee recently launched the Voter Expansion Project, which aims to push back against restrictive voting laws by registering new voters and supporting laws that expand access to the ballot.

    Some interesting stuff in here on President Obama's evolution on the issue, as well as the Big Dog showing signs of getting involved too.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 01:03:35 PM PDT

    •  I don't see how Obama has "evolved" (5+ / 0-)

      I don't see how Obama has changed at all.  I think he always hated voter suppression tactics.  He just didn't talk about this issue before.  Which makes sense, because his job is to govern the country, not to stump on every issue in the news as if he's a MSNBC show host.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:47:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  AR-SEN: Cotton proposes 5 Linconln-Douglas (9+ / 0-)

    style debates with Pryor.

    As Dave Ramsey notes, it's usually the candidate who is behind that proposes multiple debates, but despite the recent polling, I"m skeptical. If Cotton is down, it's not by much. I doubt he would be panicking.  

    Cotton is a Harvard educated attorney, so I'm guessing he feels like he can come out ahead in a debate

    •  Yeah, that's what it sounds like (8+ / 0-)

      He's not where he wants to be.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 05:17:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wonder what his internals are showing (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, jj32, bjssp, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      It could go either way. Cotton being a relative political novice, he may genuinely believe that making Pryor defend himself on stage would give him an extra boost and carry him over 50%. Or he may be getting some scary internals, combined with the two most recent polls.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 05:53:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or maybe it's a sign Cotton is an arrogant novice (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome, James Allen, MichaelNY

        and will run the sort of campaign that makes errors even when he shouldn't have to do more than smile and wave.

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:59:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The less Pryor talks, the better (7+ / 0-)

      The only reason Pryor isn't as annoying as many other conservative Democrats is that he generally votes and shuts up. It is clearly for the best, because every time he does talk, he comes off as an idiot. Pryor has literally said, "You don't need to pass an IQ test to be in the Senate."

    •  I propose (11+ / 0-)

      a raccoon eating contest to settle the race. My bet is on Mark Pryor.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 06:16:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good thing Huckabee's not involved... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MetroGnome

        Didn't he try to fry a squirrel with a popcorn popper once?

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:15:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not a winning candidate move (8+ / 0-)

      If he wants that many debates, it seems like his internals aren't good and he needs Pryor to make a mistake in order to gain momentum back. If I had to guess, I'd say Pryor wins 52-47, barring a change in climate.

      27, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 06:59:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My hunch says (7+ / 0-)

        that Cotton's internals went from showing him ahead to tied and perhaps down.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:15:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ^^^THIS!!!...... (4+ / 0-)

          This is an overreaction by Cotton, but an overreaction to a specific negative thing that you correctly identified IMO.

          The recent news on this race has been that the race has moved Pryor's way.  I think Cotton and his team see the same.  Cotton and his campaign probably are frustrated because they saw everything lining up for them, and here they are slipping when not much has happened to cause it.  I don't know myself what's caused the slight movement Pryor's way (that I'm convinced is real), maybe it's the farm bill, maybe that health care law frustration has subsided a little, or maybe both.  And maybe Pryor has just out-campaigned Cotton and that's moved some voters back Pryor's way who had been leaning against?  I can only speculate, but obviously Cotton didn't see it coming and is a bit frazzled.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 08:45:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The whole private option debacle (6+ / 0-)

            was an embarrassment for the Republican Party, particularly Tom Cotton and Asa Hutchinson. By all accounts, the private option is supposed to inject billions of dollars into Arkansas's economy over the next five to ten years and is supposed to cover hundreds of thousands of people. What is so special about the private option is that the state made a special effort to insure that there were a significant amount of younger (18-29) Arkansans enrolled. So there aren't any cost issues associated with the private option.

            It is also interesting to note that some of the legislation that Pryor is going to talk about (Farm Bill and Violence Against Women Act to name two) were supported by Boozman, Griffin, Womack, and Crawford. Cotton is not just your typical Arkansas Republican. He's particularly extreme.

            The other thing I'd note is that there really isn't any reason to think the race has moved in months. Pryor's minimum wage stance is not a gaffe. Pryor's statement on Cotton's military service did not affect the race.

            I know everybody who is anybody got caught up by the fall polls showing Cotton up in the 4 to 6 point range. But what if those polls were wrong to begin with? I'm not going to comment more on the topic of polls, but I do think people got too worked up over a couple of Republican-leaning polls this fall. It is also worth noting that third party candidates are expected to take 5% of the vote in this race. Most of the 5% will come from voters who would ordinarily vote for Cotton. I've said this before - I think Pryor can win, but I'm not sure he can get to 50%.

            There are about 10% of conservative Democrats that will decide this race. They have ignored the attacks on Obamacare so far, partly because of the Pryor name, the Pryor constituent service history, Cotton's extremism, and other local issues. Cotton must come up with a reason why these voters should choose him and reject Pryor. I actually think it is very possible that he will be able to do that.

    •  This other columnist agrees with that judgement: (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone, WisJohn

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:36:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Could be (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, KingofSpades, bjssp, MichaelNY

        It just might be my natural cautiousness/pessimism.

        After all the doom and gloom about this seat, it would be amazing if Pryor had a clear, if small, lead.

        Another interesting thing, Cotton apparently wouldnt make a statement on the private option in AR.

      •  Jon Brummett's insight (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bjssp, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        is irrelevant. A few weeks ago, he announced on Capital View (Arkansas's Sunday Talk Show) that Cotton had the clear advantage in this race. He just goes with whatever the polling shows.

        I'm much more interested in Max Brantley's take (who was the one who leaked the poll showing Tim Griffin losing reelection back in October), as well as Michael Cook and of course Jason Tolbert.

  •  Southwestern Social Science Conference (0+ / 0-)

    Will anyone be in San Antonio for the Southwestern Social Science Conference this coming week?

    http://sssaonline.org/...

    I may or may not be able to attend my own panel, but one of my co-authors will definitely be attending (bottom of page 60).

    24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sun Apr 13, 2014 at 07:37:09 PM PDT

  •  NYT: Obama effect inspiring few to seek office (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone, James Allen

    link

    Unlike John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, who inspired virtual legislatures of politicians and became generational touchstones, Mr. Obama has so far had little such influence. "
    Any way to actually quantify this? I mean, we are only into Obama's sixth year as president. Were there "virtual legislatures" of young Reagan supporters running in his sixth year in office. Or the same for JFK, in say, LBJ's second term?  

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site