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U.S. Representative Charlie Rangel (D-NY) gestures as he speaks to the members of the media in front of his House office on Capitol Hill in Washington, November 16, 2010. Rangel said he walked out of the proceedings yesterday when he was denied an attorney to be present with him. He asked for
Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel, a potential primary victim
With 27 House seats, there are a lot of races to watch in New York. Some will be resolved in the June 24 primary, while others will be hard fought all the way until November. What follows is a guide to New York's House races. Any race that Daily Kos Elections rates as anything but safe for the incumbent is featured. We also have a few races where the incumbent faces a credible primary challenge.

To start out, here is a chart of all 27 seats. The state has a complete list of candidates here.

Head below the fold for a look at the races that will be worth watching this year.

NY-01: Tim Bishop (D), The Hamptons, Brookhaven, Smithtown
Obama 50/49, Bishop 52/47
Tossup

Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop won hard-fought victories in 2010 and 2012, and Republicans are hoping this will be the year his luck runs out. Bishop got some bad headlines over the last few years over his relationship with a wealthy donor. Two Republicans are running here: wealthy attorney George Demos and state Sen. Lee Zeldin.

Zeldin is the more establishment-flavored candidate, with one anonymous GOPer calling Demos "as welcome as head lice." (Though Demos has the support of former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani). Demos, who is making his third bid for the seat, has invested over $1 million of his own money into the race and has already begun attacking Zeldin from the right. Bishop has the luxury of watching his foes beat each other up before they can focus on him, but the incumbent will have a tough re-election ahead of him regardless of who wins.

NY-04: Open (D held), Hempstead, Baldwin, Freeport, Five Towns
Obama 56/43
Likely Democratic

Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's retirement sets off a potentially competitive race in this left-leaning Nassau County seat, but one candidate looks like the clear frontrunner. Nassau County District Attorney Kathleen Rice looks like the best-known candidate and raised an eye popping $1,471,000 million in her first few months in the race. The other candidate in the Democratic primary, Nassau County Legislative Minority Leader Kevan Abrahams, entered the race later and brought in a far smaller $110,000. Rice is clearly the favorite of national Democrats, and looks like the one to beat for the nomination.

Republicans have a credible candidate in former County Legislator Bruce Blakeman, who is capable of self-funding. Still, they have an uphill climb in this district and Rice looks like a very strong candidate.

NY-11: Michael Grimm (R), Staten Island, Bay Ridge, Gravesend
Obama 52/47, Grimm 52/47
Likely Republican

This is a hard race to parse. On one hand, Republican Rep. Michael Grimm has been under a cloud of suspicion for years over a possible campaign finance scandal involving some very sketchy people. Grimm did himself no favors in late January when he threatened a reporter on camera at the State of the Union. Grimm also faces a well-financed Democratic opponent in a district Obama carried.

Still, Grimm has a lot going for him. The scandal has been developing slowly and there's no guarantee it will get bigger before Election Day. The Democratic candidate, New York City Councilor Domenic Recchia, also hails from Brooklyn. Grimm is from Staten Island where most voters are from and will likely benefit from the geographical advantage. This race is worth watching, but Recchia may need Grimm to be more directly tied to the unfolding scandal to have a shot.

NY-13: Charlie Rangel (D), Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights
Obama 95/5, Rangel 91/6
Safe Democratic

All the action is in the Democratic primary here, where longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel is facing strong headwinds as he seeks one more term. Rangel's financial dealings have cost him popularity at home and earned him a censure from the House in 2010. His health has also been poor in recent years.

Rangel narrowly prevailed in his 2012 primary against state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, winning 44 to 42. Espaillat is back for another run, and much of the Democratic establishment is abandoning Rangel for him. This is a contest where race will play a big role: Rangel is African American while Espaillat is Dominican. Another African American, minister Michael Walrond, is running and could cost Rangel votes he needs. Another Hispanic candidate is in, but he's little known and poorly funded. Rangel may still be able to pull off a win here, but it's looking like it will be a tough final race for the incumbent.

NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D), Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Middletown
Obama 51/47, Maloney 52/48
Lean Democratic

This swing district was the site of a close race in 2012, where Sean Patrick Maloney unseated first-term Republican Nan Hayworth by about four points. Hayworth is back for a rematch and can make this another tight race. However, Maloney has been leading in the cash race and Republicans are anonymously talking down Hayworth's chances. For now, Maloney looks like he's in the driver's seat here.

NY-19: Chris Gibson (R), Kingston, Hudson, Oneonta
Obama 52/46, Gibson 53/47
Likely Republican

Sophomore Rep. Chris Gibson faces a very well-funded challenge from venture capitalist Sean Eldridge in this swing district. Thanks in large part to his own money, Eldridge has a $1,581,000 to $1,234,000 cash-on-hand lead over the incumbent and can probably spend more as needed. Still, Gibson starts out favored here. Gibson appears to have done little to offend his constituents and has done a good job portraying himself as a moderate. Eldridge also is battling the perception that he's a carpetbagger from New York City. For now, it looks like Gibson has the clear edge here.

NY-21: Open (D held), Plattsburgh, Watertown, Glens Falls
Obama 52/46
Tossup

Democratic Rep. Bill Owens was facing a tough race in this swing seat, and his retirement further ensures that this North Country district will see another competitive contest. The Democratic nominee is likely to be Aaron Woolf, a documentary filmmaker. Woolf has very flimsy ties to the area (he owns a grocery store in Brooklyn for instance) and has been seldom seen on the campaign trail. However, Woolf passed a major viability test in mid-April when he brought in $206,000 in donations and loaned his campaign another $200,000. Woolf's fundraising quarter, while not eye popping, demonstrates he may have what it takes to run a real race here. Woolf's only primary opponent is Stephen Burke, a former county party chair who is also a perennial candidate.

Two Republicans are running: attorney Matt Doheny, and former Bush Administration aide Elise Stefanik. Doheny narrowly lost to Owens in 2010 and 2012 and many Republicans have had enough of him. However, Doheny so far looks like a much better fundraiser than Stefanik. The Independence Party's decision to nominate Doheny introduces a potential complication: If Stefanik wins the GOP nomination, Doheny would still be on the general election ballot. With none of the three candidates looking particularly strong, anything can happen here.

NY-22: Richard Hanna (R), Utica, Binghamton
Obama 49/49, Hanna 61/39
Safe Republican

Sophomore Rep. Richard Hanna is one of the few genuinely moderate members of the House Republican caucus, with him even encouraging women to donate to Democrats. Hanna's apostasies have encouraged state Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney to challenge him in a primary. Tenney entered the race late and may not have adequate time to prepare to face the deep-pocketed incumbent, but this wouldn't be the first time a moderate Republican has lost to a conservative rival.

Unfortunately not a single Democrat is running, so Team Blue can't take advantage of a Tenney win. Interestingly though, Hanna already has the Independence Party nomination so he will be in the general election regardless of what happens in June. If Hanna loses the primary, he could conceivably become the de facto Democratic candidate in November.

NY-23: Tom Reed (R), Jamestown, Ithaca, Elmira, Geneva
Obama 48/50, Reed 52/48
Lean Republican

Rep. Tom Reed had an unexpectedly close call in 2012 against an underfunded Democratic opponent. This time he faces a more formidable challenger from Tompkins County Legislator Martha Robertson, who is raising cash at a good pace. Reed got some bad headlines in November when it was revealed his law office had a long history of late tax payments. This is still a red district, but Robertson gives Democrats the chance to pull off an upset.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 11:22 AM PDT.

Also republished by Team DFH, Subversive Agitation Team Action Network, and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos Elections. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident).

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 11:22:45 AM PDT

  •  What about NY-24? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, rebel ga

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 11:30:15 AM PDT

  •  If you live in NYC help Recchia. (5+ / 0-)

    My usual annual reminder.  While we may have a few interesting primaries like NY-13 this is THE competitive race for November.  Starting this summer if you have free time this is the place to be.  Staten Island is not that scary and just a ferry ride away.  And there is Brooklyn too.

    Long Island can handle Long Island and upstate can handle upstate.  This is our race.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 11:57:17 AM PDT

  •  NY-13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    petral, Zack from the SFV

    Rangel can be black, but his surname is hispanic. He has also hispanic origin. And this is easily recognizable especially for the most recent inmigrants and their families.

    Espaillat can be hispanic, but his surname is not. Being a person very familiar with hispanic surnames, it is the first time that I see this surname, that sound more catalan or provenzal (I finded it before the 2012 elections and I was right).

    For the people that know them, it is possible that know Rangel as Black and Espaillat as hispanic, but for me it is also hard to believe that a hispanic person identify not Rangel as one of them. For the hispanic people this choice can become easily a choice between two of them. There are important communities of black hispanic people in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Colombia,... It is nothing rare.

    Then, the racial divission for this race is a lot less clear than many think. Surely the geographical basis of everyone in the district can have more influence than the racial divission.

    •  Rangel did emphasize his Hispanic roots somewhat (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, Zack from the SFV, sulthernao

      in the last election cycle, but he really is not much thought of as Hispanic in New York, in my experience, and I don't think I've ever heard his name pronounced "Rahn-HEL," rather than "RAN-gle." By contrast, we Americans (those who've ever heard of Catalonia) don't distinguish between Spanish and Catalan names, and you won't find a single person in New York who will consider someone named Adriano Espaillat who was born in the Dominican Republic to be anything but a Hispanic.

      I agree that the fact that Espaillat represents Washington Heights while Rangel is from Harlem is a significant geographic factor, but especially if you consider Espaillat as not merely Hispanic but specifically Dominican, the ethnic factor is significant.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 02:36:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Surely Rangel will show his hispanic side (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        having a primary from a hispanic candidate.

        It is not only about the the surname is pronunced. A hispanic person, especially a recent inmigrant would need only to see the surname writed in the ballot to identify him as hispanic. The recent inmigrants keep reading the hispanic surnames as they have done all the life.

        For a hispanic person in an environment where there are lots of not hispanic surnames Espaillat would not sound as a hispanic surname. Adriano yes, Adriano is a hispanic name. The question about Espaillat being of catalan or occitan (provenzal) origin is that the surname sound not hispanic. It is a lot easier to think that is a french surname than a hispanic surname. Also Adriano will speak spanish fluently and I don't think he has trouble indentifiying himself as hispanic person.

        But also Rangel can identify himself succesfully as hispanic. And many people will identify him as hispanic so naturally. Just as I do (even being not hispanic, but being familiar with hispanic culture).

      •  being Dominican Espaillat can have also black vote (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Black hispanic votes.

        Between the Dominicans there is also an important black community.

        It is another factor that goes against a racial divission of the vote.

  •  I think... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    NY-19 is a more likely flip than NY-23 (I have it as a tossup). Yeah, Eldridge's strength as a candidate is questionable, but he has gobs of money and the district is less polarized than NY-19.

    •  Disagree (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mannie, MichaelNY

      I disagree.  The incumbent strength is very different.  Reed is way too conservative for the district and for Upstate NY.  Gibson fits his district very well and has been running a very good race so far.  Eldridge does have gobs of money but so did Linda McMahon and look how that turned up.  Plus this is a situation where gobs of money might backfire as it becomes an attack on him and he doesn't have to fundraise as heavily (and connect to the district).  

      Yes 23rd is more Republican than the 19th but Reed is much weaker than Gibson and Robertson (so far) has been a much stronger candidate than Eldridge.  

      •  The 23rd is complicated (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Albanius, Mannie, milkbone, MichaelNY

        It includes the deep blue of Ithaca and some amazingly red territory along the PA border. That red territory will be motivated to come out and vote by some issues that have little or nothing to do with this race. There's tremendous antipathy against Andrew Cuomo over the SAFE Act, which will translate into intense turnout for Rob Astorino and could have a downticket pull.

        There's also a fairly intense anti-Ithaca bias in much of the rest of the district, and a hometown bias working for Reed in Steuben County (Corning), where he was a popular mayor. The tax issues haven't dented Reed much. He's a nice guy in person, and he's learned how to vote all the way to the right in DC but still play the moderate act back home. Robertson will have to work hard to overcome that...and she'll have to work even harder to spur heavy turnout in Tompkins County (Ithaca) and the northern stretches of the district up toward the Rochester exurbs. It's not impossible for her, but it's uphill.

        It's also a surprisingly expensive media market to buy, because you need not only the relatively cheap Elmira TV stations but also the more expensive Syracuse and Rochester stations to cover this sprawling district (and there are even pockets that are served by Buffalo and Binghamton TV at the edges.)

        Intended to be a factual statement.

        by ipsos on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 05:31:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Robertson will have a lot of NY23 volunteers ... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Zack from the SFV, Mannie, MichaelNY

          as a well respected anti-fracking leader, on an issue that arouses MUCH more intensity on the anti side.

          Nate Shinagawa almost took this district last time, getting over 48% despite being triaged out by the DCCC. Now he is running Martha's campaign, and the D-trip is in this time.

          I believe someone told me at her Albany fundraiser yesterday that Robertson outraised Reed in the first quarter this year.

          There's no such thing as a free market!

          by Albanius on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 06:17:46 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Point well taken (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Albanius, Mannie, milkbone, MichaelNY

            The fracking issue is indeed huge in NY23, and I hope it does turn out to be as big a draw for voters on our side as the SAFE Act is for theirs.

            I'm stoked that the D-trip finally saw the light on this district. Nate came so painfully close in 2012.

            By the way, a name to watch in that district in the future: Ithaca's current mayor, Svante Myrick, is incredibly impressive, at least in my contact with him so far. He's just 27, but he's going places, mark my words.

            Intended to be a factual statement.

            by ipsos on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 06:51:04 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Sean Eldridge in NY-19 is bright, articulate ... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mannie, nonsensoleum, tb mare, MichaelNY

      and progressive (unlike the other gay Sean in the Hudson Valley.)

      At his recent Albany fundraiser Eldridge gave a strong speech hammering Gibson for a lot of right wing votes.  He trails on name recognition, but has the resources to get his message out.  He is VERY rich - his husband is a Facebook founder.

      Gibson, a 2 term incumbent elected in 2010, is a strong candidate - very well spoken, a PhD and a retired Colonel who opposes military adventurism - but the area has been trending blue.  Lines were redrawn in 2012, most of NY-19 is from the red to purple district Gillibrand won from Sweeney, with some turf added from Maurice Hinchey's red to blue district which was carved up when he retired.  

      Gibson voted against the 2014 Ryan budget, but Eldridge can nail him for voting for some previous Ryan budgets and other far right bills the GOP put on the floor and Gibson voted for.  

      There are a lot of progressive Dem and WFP activists in the Albany area who know Tonko is safe in NY-20, who are mad as hell at the essentialiy Bircher GOP House, and will work to help throw out the SOBs by taking back the seat in adjacent NY-19. I hope Gillibrand and the Clintons will campaign for Eldridge.  I am no fan of Clintonism, but politics aint beanbag.

      There's no such thing as a free market!

      by Albanius on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 06:48:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Seeing Mike Grimm as a "Likely R" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is a sad commentary on the electorate.

  •  Massachusetts has 2 Democratic Senators and 9 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheChocolateChips

    Democratic congressmen.  What's wrong with New York?  How can there be such a thing as a 'safe' Republican seat in New York?

    Armed! I feel like a savage! Barbarella

    by richardvjohnson on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 05:27:49 PM PDT

  •  I noted this upthread, too... (4+ / 0-)

    but I want to emphasize the possibility that rural anti-Cuomo energy will drive heavy turnout in upstate red territory.

    The SAFE Act gun safety legislation is ragingly unpopular in not only rural but also suburban areas, and those opposed to the law will be out voting against Cuomo in November. That can't help but have an effect down-ticket.

    How intense is the anti-Cuomo energy? Here's just one example, about dollar bills being stamped with anti-Cuomo messages.

    You can't drive through a rural area or a small town up here in western NY without seeing a bunch of "Repeal the SAFE Act" yard signs dotting the roads. That has the potential to tip some close races this fall.

    Intended to be a factual statement.

    by ipsos on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 05:36:03 PM PDT

  •  Rangel has had a good run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    milkbone, MichaelNY

    But his time has come he has entangled himself into too many scandals over the past few years I think it's past due for someone new to represent the district. I'm never a fan of entrenched incumbents who stay way long past their due date.

    •  Rangel had a long run, not all that good (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      milkbone, MichaelNY

      IIRC he led the fight for the bill that raised penalites for possession of crack to equal penalties for 100x as much powdered cocaine.  I believe he also supported at least some of the so-called free trade agreements that accelerated the massive export of manufacturing jobs.

      There's no such thing as a free market!

      by Albanius on Thu Apr 24, 2014 at 07:02:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-21 still lean R, in my opinion. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slothlax, MichaelNY

    I don't believe that Bill Owens would have had a hard reelection. He is popular among 'independent' Republicans as well as Democrats. There was no-one of any stature to run against him. I really think it would have been a cakewalk for him to be reelected.

    Now we have a real donnybrook. Elise Stefanik is campaigning like she actually wants to win this seat. She is putting out policy statements, visiting businesses, etc. Doheny is getting nasty, and that WILL bloody her up a bit. I don't think he will last to the election, however. If he does, a split ticket will obviously be a big gift to Aaron Woolf.

    I like Woolf, but he is not campaigning like someone who wants to represent this district. Most everything (his web site, facebook, etc.) is 'ah shucks, I am just a regular North Country guy'. Won't work here. People know better. He would do better by just playing it straight, and talking about how he will effectively represent the District's interests. He campaigned with Bill Owens up my way today, and finally received Owens' endorsement.That is good news. But he really needs to move things up to the next level in his campaign. He still comes off as a vanity candidate.

  •  Pretty Confident (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Barring a national wave developing or a big scandal for a candidate, I'm pretty confident that Owens' seat and maybe Bishop's seat will be the only ones that are really competitive by November.  I'd give whoever wins the Republican primary in the 21st with a 70% chance of winning, Eldridge a 20% chance of winning, Robertson 30% chance of winning and Recchia a 25% chance of winning.  

    On the Democratic side Bishop is by far the most competitive district.  I'd say it's a total coin flip.  Maloney is not gonna have a problem with Hayworth, Maffei is relatively safe, and the rest of the Dems are in safe seats.

  •  I hope Espaillat wins (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Rangel has done some great things, but he is now an embarrassment.

  •  I can't figure out (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slothlax

    Why DKE has NY-23 more likely to go blue than NY-11 or NY-19.  NY-11 and NY-19 had D+ PVIs in 2012, and I think NY-19 did in 2008 as well.  

    Unless they are going on the assumption that Reed is a worse incumbent than Gibson or Grimm, I don't agree with this at all.  These ratings seem to be based solely on the fact that NY-23 was closer than expected last time around.  The fundamentals of candidate quality and PVI would seem to suggest the other two districts going blue before NY-23 does.

    26, OH-16, fiscal moderate, foreign policy liberal, social libertarian 2012 Daily Kos Elections Pick'Em Champion

    by StephenCLE on Fri Apr 25, 2014 at 05:24:25 AM PDT

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