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8:49 AM PT: OH-Gov: A new poll from SurveyUSA finds GOP Gov. John Kasich leading his Democratic challenger, Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, 46-36, which is the biggest margin Kasich's seen in over almost a year. However, Green Party candidate Anita Rios takes 4 percent, and her presence could be problematic for FitzGerald. At the same time, Libertarian Charlie Earl was not included in the matchup. He was kicked off the ballot in March by Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted, but he's currently contesting that move in court.

8:57 AM PT: FL-Gov: Several recent polls have shown a tighter contest in Florida's gubernatorial race, and a couple have even had GOP Gov. Rick Scott ahead. But Quinnipiac is saying nuts to all that, as their latest survey has ex-Gov. Charlie Crist ahead by a comfy 48-38 margin. That's actually a slight improvement for Crist compared to his 46-38 edge in January. Quinnipiac, though, has always provided some of the most Dem-friendly polling in the Sunshine State this cycle. Crist has never been up by fewer than 7 points—and a year ago, his lead started off at 16!

9:20 AM PT: NH State House: Former state Sen. Jackie Cilley, whom you may remember from her unsuccessful bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2012, says she's going to run for New Hampshire's state House this fall. Ordinarily, we wouldn't pay much attention to individual candidates running for the zillion-member House, but Cilley is a much more high-profile name than usual. What's more, House Speaker Terie Norelli is retiring, and if Democrats retain control of the chamber, Cilley could take over—a possibility she's not ruling out. That in turn could set Cilley up for another run for higher office somewhere down the line.

10:40 AM PT: AR-Sen, -Gov: PPP's new Arkansas poll sure is an odd duck. It's somewhat less bullish for Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor than other recent polling, seeing as he's in the low 40s, but he's still up a point on GOP Rep. Tom Cotton, 43-42. That's little changed from the 44-all tie PPP found last December, though both candidates are pretty unpopular thanks to negative advertising: Pryor's now at 38-46 in job approvals, and Cotton sports a 37-42 in favorability. It's fairly remarkable that Pryor's even doing this well in the first place, though, considering that Obama has a deeply negative 33-61 approval score.

But here's where things get really strange: In the governor's race, Republican ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson is beating Democratic ex-Rep. Mike Ross by a wide 46-38 margin. Last time, Hutchinson led by just 44-43. It's hard to come up with plausible reasons why he'd surge like this, particularly with Pryor ahead in the Senate matchup, and even Tom Jensen hints that something might be amiss, acknowledging that "most recent surveys show the race much closer." (This is indeed the case.)

So if Ross' numbers are actually better than what PPP's showing, it stands to reason that Pryor's would be as well. That's not a conclusion I'm ready to make, given that PPP is a trustworthy pollster and many of the other outfits that have polled Arkansas don't have the same track record. But the laws of statistics tell you that you'll always have outliers, so the possibility can't be ruled out.

12:14 PM PT: MI-13: This would be a hell of a way for a long and storied career to end. Rev. Horace Sheffield, who is running against veteran Rep. John Conyers in the Democratic primary, has challenged Conyers' nomination petitions in an effort to throw him off the ballot. It's not known how many signatures Conyers has submitted, but Michigan requires congressional candidates to file at least 1,000 but not more than 2,000, so there's only so wide a margin for error. (It looks like a couple of Conyers' petition-gatherers may not have been registered to vote, in apparent contravention of the law.)

If this all sounds familiar, that's because last cycle, Conyers bizarrely submitted just 1,051 signatures, putting his candidacy in serious jeopardy. Luckily for him, no one contested his petitions last time, but now Conyers is facing serious scrutiny and could very well get booted.

Even if that does happen, though, it may not be the end of the line for Conyers, since he could still run in the primary as a write-in candidate, and thanks to his name recognition, he'd probably be favored. But this kind of sloppiness doesn't augur well for the congressman, and perhaps it's a sign he should consider going out on top, rather than risk an ignominious end to his political life story.

12:46 PM PT: ME-Gov: Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud continues to kick butt in fundraising, besting his two opponents in the most recent reporting period (from Jan. 1 to April 22). During that timeframe, Michaud raised $462,000 and has $813,000 cash-on-hand. Meanwhile, independent Eliot Cutler pulled in $389,000, but more than half of that came in the form of self-funding, and he has just $109,000 in the bank. But GOP Gov. Paul LePage was the most feeble of all, raising just $123,000 and winding up with $618,000 left over.

1:09 PM PT: NY State Senate: This would be interesting: Former New York City Comptroller John Liu, who ran a failed bid for mayor last year, is reportedly considering a primary challenge to turncoat Democratic state Sen. Tony Avella. Liu's mayoral bid was dogged by allegations of campaign finance fraud that ultimately sent his former treasurer to prison, though Liu himself was never implicated. He later was denied public financing as a result (a move many regarded as unfair), which dealt a death blow to his campaign.

But Liu's progressive bona fides cannot be doubted, and he's an extremely vigorous campaigner with a wildly energetic base in the Chinese-American community. He would definitely pose a threat to Avella, and if Oliver Koppell also runs against Jeff Klein, the leader of the renegade Democrats, that could offer mainstream Democrats a serious one-two punch.

1:23 PM PT: AK-Sen: It looks like AHA plans to take on a couple of Senate races. The American Hospital Association is spending $180,000 apiece to aide Democrats in Alaska and Arkansas, though their ads aren't available online (but maybe they will be, in a day or two). Somehow Greg Giroux obtained screenshots and text from the Alaska spot, though, which praises Sen. Mark Begich for "protect[ing] Alaska’s rural hospitals from harmful cuts" and "ma[king] sure seniors and veterans can see doctors and nurses closer to home."

1:32 PM PT: PA-Gov: With the Democratic primary now less than three weeks away, things keep heating up. State Treasurer Rob McCord has a pair of new TV ads, one of which goes after the frontrunner, businessman Tom Wolf, over the fact that his cabinetry company makes some of their products outside of Pennsylvania. I sort of chuckled in spite of myself when McCord explained, "So when I heard that they manufacture those cabinets in Indiana, I figured they were made by workers here. But guess what? It's not Indiana, Pennsylvania. It's Indiana Indiana."

The other spot is narrated by his wife, who references McCord being raised by a single mom and runs through a list of his policy priorities.

2:08 PM PT: HI-Sen: Democratic Sen. Brian Schatz's new ad hits a theme that doesn't come up a lot even in Democratic primaries: gun safety laws. Schatz says "as many as 40 percent of all gun purchases are conducted without a background check," and introduces his kids as the reason for his concern about guns. Schatz concludes with his support of mandatory background checks and an assault weapons ban.

2:23 PM PT: Ads:

GA-Sen: Jack Kingston (R)

IA-Sen: Matt Whitaker (R); Mark Jacobs (R)

AZ-Gov: Doug Ducey (R)

CA-33: David Kanuth (D)

ID-02: Mike Simpson (R-inc); Simpson; Bryan Smith (R); Madison Project (anti-Simpson)

NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R)

PA-09: Art Halvorson (R)

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:00:18 AM PDT

  •  ICYMI, NBC/WSJ poll (14+ / 0-)

    PDF

    DC Cyclone clocked it. Obama's overall approval improved slightly (44-50), along with Democrats on the generic Congressional Ballot (45-45). Not great, but better than the last one.

    And yes, this confirms my suspicion that ABC/WaPo was an outlier.

  •  FL-Gov: Crist crushes 48-38 (28+ / 0-)

    Kinda blows to pieces the narrative that this is a tossup race. At minimum Tilt-D, in my opinion Lean D

    http://go.bloomberg.com/...

  •  A skilled predictor makes some comments (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    clevelandpacha, wwmiv

    Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

    by R30A on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:08:31 AM PDT

    •  Sorry- screwed that one up (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, atdnext

      Ethnically Bostonian lifelong New Yorker

      by R30A on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:10:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  BWAAAAAAA What a douchenozzle (13+ / 0-)
        By contrast, Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst is looking increasingly formidable in the Iowa Senate race, thanks to her compelling profile and rare ability to unite the party's establishment with the grassroots. A female Iraq War veteran, Ernst has struggled with fundraising but caught late momentum thanks to a catchy ad arguing her hog-castrating background will lead her to cut pork in Washington. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin both endorsed her, and she has tacit support from Gov. Terry Branstad.
        Real formidable that pig castrator who was endorsed by noted winners Palin and Rmoney.
        2. Sens. Jeff Merkley and Mark Warner are more vulnerable than the models suggest.

        As in Iowa, the models struggle with assessments featuring challengers with low name identification. Merkley and Warner are both favored to win, but by predicting them as near locks for reelection—the Upshot puts their odds at 99 percent or more—the models are underestimating the strength of their lesser-known opponents.

        Warner is a personally popular senator and former governor, but his approval ratings have been soft in recent polling. He leads Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman who's well-known in Washington but is virtually anonymous to most Virginia voters. Yet Gillespie will have the resources to get his message out—he raised $2.2 million in the last quarter—in a battleground state that isn't immune to the national environment. At this time in 2006, former Sen. George Allen was being touted as a future presidential candidate; he lost in a wave election to Jim Webb. With signs that 2014 could be another landslide year, this time for Republicans, it's a race worth watching.

        Another sleeper race is in Oregon, where Republicans are likely to nominate physician Monica Wehby to challenge freshman Sen. Merkley. Just watch Wehby's introductory ad and you can see why GOP strategists think she could pose a serious challenge to the senator. The problems with Oregon's health care exchanges—state officials just abandoned the troubled system for the federal exchanges—also makes the health care issue a local one that a Republican doctor could effectively exploit.

        Merkley's campaign released their internal numbers, showing the incumbent at 52 percent against Wehby before the primary. That's a decent place to be, but far from safe territory—especially if outside conservative groups decide to spend aggressively to target the incumbent.

        This guy has to be one of the worst.  52% is a decent place to be? 2014 could be a landslide for the GOP?  Where the hell can I get a lucrative gig spouting nonsense like that?

        This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

        by DisNoir36 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:36:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  LOL, and given he's predicting a wave... (13+ / 0-)

        ...I wish I could find the column from 2012 when he did the same, predict a GOP wave.

        He's remarkably dumb.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:53:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  PA-13: debate last night (8+ / 0-)

    Brendan Boyle boycotted because the organizer (a ward leader) is a Margolies supporter who issued rules allowing the candidates to rely on note cards, but it's one of only three debates that MM agreed to do, so ...

    Inq:

    State Sen. Daylin Leach and former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Margolies continued to trade barbs Tuesday night, with Margolies criticizing Leach for living outside the 13th Congressional District he seeks to represent, and Leach insinuating that Margolies held President Bill Clinton hostage in exchange for her vote on his 1993 budget.

    "I would never say to the president, 'If you don't give me a deal by coming to my district, I'm going to sink your budget,' " Leach said, referencing the eleventh-hour switch in which Margolies agreed to cast the final vote to pass Clinton's pivotal spending plan. "I would never say to my constituents . . . 'I'm not going to vote for it unless it's the deciding vote, so people think I'm against it even though I'm really for it.' "

    Margolies defended her vote, saying she had real problems with some of the budget and agreed to support it only after Clinton said he would take a deeper look at reforming Social Security....

    Physician Valerie Arkoosh largely stayed away from the personal jabs, but did weigh in for the first time on allegations that Margolies violated campaign-finance law.

    "The rules are crystal-clear, and I think the constituents in the 13th District deserve a representative that follows those rules without question and has nothing to hide," Arkoosh said.

    Daily News:
    Margolies called Boyle "multiple-choice" on the issue of abortion since he voted for regulations opposed by abortion-rights groups. She bashed Leach for not living in the district. And she called a campaign mailer from Arkoosh about Social Security "intellectually dishonest."

    Leach struck back quickly at Margolies, noting that she reads her attacks "word-for-word" from notes. He also noted that he currently lives "about 200 yards" from the 13th District's borders....

    Arkoosh, unlike her three primary opponents, has never held public office. She touted that as a strength for her campaign, saying: "I would like to point out that Congress is full of career politicians and I don't think they're getting a lot done down there."

    Leach turned that back on Arkoosh with cutting humor about her work in anesthesiology.

    "When I go into an operating room, I don't want a career anesthesiologist," Leach joked, drawing laughter from the crowd. "I want someone who dabbles in it from time to time."

  •  OH-Gov Poll SUSA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32

    Kasich 46%
    Fitzgerald 36%

    Wow both the FL and OH races are splitting to the opposite  sides of the spectrum.

    http://www.nbc4i.com/...

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:29:02 AM PDT

    •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

      Maybe I'm mistkaen, but wasn't this poll featured in yesterday's digest?

      Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

      by MetroGnome on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:31:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kasich has always had an edge, but this is (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Midwest Leftist, Taget, MichaelNY

      probably an outlier. I think this is the largest margin ever with Kasich beating FitzGerald...puts this poll under more scrutiny and it doesn't necessarily mean it's moving in a different direction.

      Although the Q's poll on FL might be an outlier, Crist has sported margins larger than 10 points. So I don't think you can compare the two...

      •  Qunninipac has had Kasich leads greater than 10 (0+ / 0-)

        It was a 14-point lead in one of their polls once.

        Moderate Republican, PA-5

        by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:37:40 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Most recently had Kasich +5 in Feb (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MetroGnome, itskevin, jj32, MichaelNY

          I'm guessing Quinny will have another one here in the next few weeks.

        •  You're confusing me (9+ / 0-)

          Yesterday, when talking about FL, you said that polls older than three months don't really count (which seemed to me a pretty good rule); today you grab a poll from Q, taken over ten months ago, to support your case.

          •  Yah, LOL (6+ / 0-)

            Can't cherry-pick to fit a meme, gotta be consistent.

            I personally do expect Kasich and Crist to both win comfortably in the end, whether or not polls showing big leads now are "accurate" in real time.

            And I think Kasich wins by more than Crist.  I see Kasich winning by low double-digits, Crist by mid-to-high single-digits.

            Right now I have Gov races at D+2, with our picking up PA (safe Dem), FL (lean Dem), and ME (lean Dem and goes all the way to safe Dem if Cutler eventually fades).  Then I think Quinn goes down in IL.  I think we have our hearts broken in MI, Snyder hangs on, but I could be easily proven wrong on that.  On the flip side, I think we surprise in AR and both Ross and Pryor pull it out!  But as in MI, I could be easily wrong there......though I think Pryor for his part clearly has surged and just as clearly would win today.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:06:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  No (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            A person said that this (10 point lead) was the largest margin ever for Kasich, I just proved that the largest was 14.  Had nothing to do with the results of this poll or indication of where the race is now lol.  I can see how you could get confused.

            Moderate Republican, PA-5

            by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:08:24 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  You are correct in that I might have (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          misrepresented some of that data without taking a look at the whole swath of polling data. But my main contention was with your characterization of the races as "splitting in opposite directions." FL-Gov has been in the same place it always has been: somewhere between Tilt-D to Lean-D. It hasn't been fluctuating or moving different directions as you are implying. Today's Quinnipiac poll is probably an outlier but affirms that Crist has the clear advantage.

          Furthermore, I don't know that you can characterize this race as moving towards Kasich all of a sudden based on this one poll. Recent polls have shown the race getting tighter in fact, but Kasich is still favored to win at this point. Just because one polls come out with a big change in margin doesn't mean you can all of a sudden apply some sort of directionality. You can only make those assumptions from trends which are observed over time.

  •  NC-SC: Kochs trying to oust Dem justice in (13+ / 0-)

    primary.  Incumbent Justice Robin Hudson (D) is facing two Republicans in a nonpartisan primary.  The top two vote-getters will go on to the general election.  The Koch Brothers and other interest groups are spending big money attacking Justice Hudson and promoting both of the Republican candidates.  The Kochs see the May primary, dominated by Republican turnout, as a better chance to beat Hudson than the November general.  If Democrats lost this seat in the primary, this would be a huge blow to them.  They would be down to a 6-3 minority.

    http://www.wral.com/...

  •  RedState is claiming that Wendy Davis is ending (0+ / 0-)

    her campaign.

    Any truth to that?

    Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

    by pucklady on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:08:19 AM PDT

    •  That's not what even Red State says (12+ / 0-)

      Red State is claiming that national democrats are pulling their support from her campaign.

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:12:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I didn't read it carefully, but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TofG

        is there any truth to THAT?

        Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

        by pucklady on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:13:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, DGA said they are not investing in this race (10+ / 0-)
        •  I'm not sure that means "pulling" their support (22+ / 0-)

          Had they previously promised or provided any support?  Had the DGA recruited her to run with a promise of support?

          If not, then they're not "pulling" anything.

          I'm not surprised by the DGA surrendering this one, there was never any evidence Davis would actually be competitive.

          The disappointment to me is the most recent L.G. poll by PPP that showed van de Putte down big against Dan Patrick should Patrick win the GOP runoff.  I hope that's eventually proven wrong or at least not indicative of how the L.G. race develops.  That's the one in Texas that at the outset looked promising to me.  But if even Patrick ends up winning in November by double-diigits, then Texas is further off a target for us than even my own pessimistic projection has been.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:21:59 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If Abbott AND Patrick win in Texas (6+ / 0-)

            I'd stay as far away from Texas as I could.  Those two combined are STILL dumber than Rick Perry and that's saying alot.

            It's amazing how people will continue to shoot themselves in their foot over and over.  But these clowns are really bad.  there may be no coming back from 4 years of them.

            This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

            by DisNoir36 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:46:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Abbott + Patrick very well may = the comprehensive (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson

              alienation of hispanics from the republican party in Texas. I'm not rooting for them to enact a xenophobic agenda, but I'm pretty much expecting it. And it could accelerate the political changes that are baked into the demographic cake.

          •  Texas gotta Texas (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, MichaelNY

            I'd imagine the LG race hasn't gotten much attention, and to most voters Patrick and vdP are just random R and random D. Unless vdP raises enough $ to run a serious, sustained ad campaign I would not draw any conclusions from that race.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:30:08 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  I've always sensed that... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JGibson, TofG, MichaelNY

            Georgia & Arizona are the Red States most likely to turn Blue this decade. If AZ-Gov is a closer finish than most pundits expect (and especially if there's a Dem upset there this year), expect Hillary's campaign to start making moves there next year. And should Michelle Nunn &/or Jason Carter beat expectations in Georgia this year, expect Hillary's campaign to start making moved there next year.

            In at least some aspects, the 2006 results gave the Obama Campaign a heads up on where to expand the map in 2008. They must have realized Virginia, North Carolina, & Colorado were all winnable in addition to the "traditional swing states".

            Perhaps come 2020, Texas will be winnable. Or maybe we'll have to wait a little longer. Eventually, the demographics will catch up with Republicans there. But for now, the DNC & the Clinton Campaign are probably better off focusing on states that are more likely to flip in 2016.

            •  Arizona is harder to judge (11+ / 0-)

              Arizona has a lot more white swing voters than Georgia, so in any given year Democrats can win a lot of stuff there if everything falls right, even though in most cycles Republicans dominate.  That's why after 2008 we held a majority of U.S. House seats there and had the Governorship until Napolitano took the Administration job, as well as the A.G. office with Goddard.  In Georgia, the white vote is so inelastically conservative that there's a red wall that keeps us from winning anything, and it's much more predictable.

              Also, my impression is that Hispanic turnout in Arizona is more volatile than black turnout in Georgia, in addition to Hispanic voters being more elastic than black voters.

              So Arizona is a place we can have a breakthrough when we don't see it coming far in advance.

              In Georgia, the demographics are telegraphing a shift that I bet we'll see somewhat ahead of time.

              46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:32:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  To expand on what you are saying, (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                atdnext, TofG, MichaelNY

                in Georgia, it constantly seems like we're starting over from scratch. Maybe it's more of a state/federal thing than in other states, so maybe Carter and Nunn can win but a national Democrat can't yet, but even if that's true, we've basically got no bench there. There were a bunch of state legislators that switched their registration after 2010, for instance.

                We've had troubles in Arizona, to be sure, but it seems like we've got more options there.

                I think we can take advantage of changes in both states, but I think it's harder in Georgia, partly because we're starting so far behind.

                "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

                by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:46:04 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  You're both correct... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  TofG, MichaelNY

                  In that Arizona is more elastic while Georgia has a more solid Democratic base to start with.

                  Both states have some similar challenges. Both can benefit from higher minority voter registration & participation. And Democrats in both states have to figure out how to persuade more of those "movable middle" suburban voters.

                  And then, there are the differences. Atlanta's urban core and inner ring suburbs are already dark Blue, while Phoenix's Blue urban core is mostly surrounded by deep Red suburbs & exurbs. There doesn't seem to be much growth potential for Georgia Democrats outside Atlanta, while Arizona Democrats have made inroads in Tucson & Flagstaff. Obama & Jim Martin came tantalizingly close in 2008 despite the decimation of Georgia Dems in state government, while Arizona Dems have occasionally made breakthroughs in state government despite Dem Presidential Candidates' repeated failure to put Arizona on the map up until now (with the exception of Bill Clinton winning in 1996).

                  So both states pose challenges to Hillary in 2016... But I firmly believe she can flip both of them if Dems start working on the ground game in both states.

              •  Pastor and Wilcox retiring (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Should really help us on Hispanic turnout down the road, assuming Wilcox doesn't win the primary.

                Neither of them ever did much to turn out the vote, given they were a lock for re-election.

                New blood in that House seat and the county district should help us in statewide, Maricopa county, and even some state legislative seats.

                Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:01:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  The DGA was never going to get involved (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Davis will have millions of dollars to spend anyway.  Her fundraising has been very impressive for a safe GOP race.

  •  register of deeds (5+ / 0-)

    In my county in NC, the county register of deeds is a partisan elected position. For the life of me I can't figure out why. Anyone have any ideas?

  •  Sen 2014: ranking the races differently (6+ / 0-)

    Linky here:  http://www.newrepublic.com/...

    The short of it is that this piece looks at the competitive Senate races in terms of vote goals and the comparative efficiencies of trying to meet them in the various races.  It's a great read and teaches us plenty.

    But the one thing I don't see in the piece is what polling actually brings to the table in an analysis:  it tells us how difficult the needed votes really are to attain.  Having a vote goal that looks attainable on the surface is one thing, but bad polls teach that the needed votes might be unattainable at any price.

    Not to say that upset wins aren't doable in these races, but they are harder than a vote goal would make them appear.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:47:52 AM PDT

  •  ABC/WaPO: No clear GOP frontrunner for 2016 (9+ / 0-)

    14-Jeb
    14-Paul
    13-Huckabee
    11-Ryan
    10-Christie
    7- Rubio
    6-Perry
    6-Cruz
    5-Walker
    2-Kasich
    1- Jindal.

    link

    It really does look like this year might be the one where there is no frontrunner, no "next in line" guy for the GOP.

    If that's the case, you have to question the wisdom of shortening the primary.

    By a 66-31 margin, most people have a favorable opinion of the Clinton family.

    54-43 say the same about the Bushes.

    I'll admit, I like Bush 41, he seemed relatively moderate and pragmatic. I think his defeat was a turning point for the GOP, and not for the better.  

    •  He was way better before becoming Reagan's VP (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, atdnext, JBraden

      He was the one who called Reaganomics voodoo economics in a debate, after all.

      Then he got the VP slot and became much more conservative.

      I am glad that he signed the ADA into law. But other than that I don't really like him either.

      The last GOP president I like has to be Nixon, and only for things like EPA, etc.

      •  I mostly like him for his handling (10+ / 0-)

        of foreign policy.

        He got Saddam out of Kuwait, and that's all he did, perhaps knowing what the aftermath would be if the US invaded Iraq.

        He also did a good job of managing the downfall of the Soviet Union. I read somewhere about how, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Bush made sure the official American response was subdued, fearing that if it was too celebratory, the Soviets would crack down, and thus halt the collapse of the USSR.

        Not saying I liked his entire FP record, but there was a thoughtfulness he seemed on these issues that his son didnt, and that I dont think any major GOP politician of today has.  

        •  Plus, he raised taxes. (12+ / 0-)

          It's almost unfathomable to imagine a Republican agreeing to higher marginal rates today. It's even odder since a lot of the people that advised him, at least the bigger names like John Taylor and Michael Boskin, are still commenting and advising Republicans. Maybe they didn't support him in his efforts back then, or maybe they felt they had no choice given the Democrats in Congress, but the switch from where they were then to where they appear to be now is startling.

          "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:42:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, another sign of how much the GOP has (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, Berliozian, JBraden, MichaelNY

            shifted to the right.

            I've said before, if you are a Republican who is really a fiscal conservative, you should have enthusiastically embraced one of Obama's grand bargain offers.

            Here you have a Dem president offering more in spending cuts than he wants in tax hikes, and is including entitlement changes(chained cpi, means testing Medicare).

            They probably wont get a better deal from a Dem president, and it's a fantasy to think a totally GOP controlled government could pass massive entitlement reform and spending cuts. That's just not feasible politically. These kinds of things need bipartisan support, and Obama was offering it.

          •  not so startling (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bjssp, bythesea, wadingo, MichaelNY

            I don't think Boskin or Taylor really moved. The party moved, and they had to pretend to move with it to maintain their influence.

            SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

            by sacman701 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:12:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That makes sense. (0+ / 0-)

              I should have indicated this was the most likely possibility.

              Actually, come to think of it, wasn't the vote back then heavily Democratic? In other words, maybe it was less the party moving, although it has certainly moved more to the right even if it was never very centrist after Reagan, than those at the top accepting it wasn't the end of the world and having a congress that was willing to go along with a reasonable deficit reduction package.

              "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:25:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Kind of off topic, but as you know, (0+ / 0-)

              I try to follow this stuff. I often come across an op/ed by this person or that person, and sometimes, it's hard to make out what's what. But not always. When you see someone like former CEA head Ed Leazar making an argument based on dates (who took over at what point) that he has to know is B.S. but publishes it anyway, it's a sign they really do need to put forth lots of nonsense just to stay relevant.

              It's one thing when politicians do this, but the academics? Very depressing.

              "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:27:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  True about USSR (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          he did do a good job of managing the fall of the Soviet Union.

          But he ignored genocide in Iraq (at a time when Saddam was our ally). Of course the US track record on genocide is awful (see Clinton - Rwanda,  Bush/ Clinton - Bosnia in 1992-1995). And further back, Cambodia and even the Holocaust (MS St Louis)

          Plus, the Bush Administration's discussion with Saddam before his invasion of Kuwait can be called vague at best. We basically told him that we would not get involved in his border disputes. Of course he was our ally at the time. And we probably didn't believe he would actually invade Kuwait.

          •  Bush I is all about realpolitik (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, jncca

            Genocide of Shiites and Kurds in Iraq was seen as a positive for regime stability in several geopolitically important countries in the region.  We didn't ignore it, we supported it, just as we supported equally brutal right wing dictatorships and contra movements in the Western Hemisphere...

            I will say that I vastly prefer Bush I to Reagan or Bush II.
            He actually cared about competent governance.

            A sidenote: He did some decent things on domestic energy policy (EPACT 1992).

            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

            by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:49:20 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  He also gave us (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the Willie Horton ad.  So clearly he wasn't immune to the party's use of racism.

      •  When I was much younger, I remember an old lady (4+ / 0-)

        telling me the last president she liked was Eisenhower.

        "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:34:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Ok (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      I'm convinced that nothing useful will come from GOP polling until candidates actually start taking themselves out of contention in 2015.

    •  Mitt (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KyleinWA, Gygaxian, bythesea, askew

      I'm serious that I think he might run again; they really ought to put his name in those polls.

  •  lol, Mike Sheridan running for State Senate (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.channel3000.com/...

    For those unfamiliar with Sheridan, he's the former Assembly Majority leader from Janesville who was last seen losing his ~66% Obama seat after changing his position on payday loans after fucking a lobbyist from said industry.

    I'm convinced Janis Ringhand remains in the driver's seat to win this race, because Sheridan burned a ton of bridges with his behavior, but this should at least make it entertaining.

    •  How much union support will he get though? (0+ / 0-)

      In a district like that, if the unions forgive, I think the voters might follow.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:09:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI SD-17: GREAT news! There's been lots of (13+ / 0-)

    grumbling in WI that Dale Schultz's Senate seat would stay republican despite being a D+6 area due to the fact that our Democratic candidate reported astoundingly terrible fundraising next to Republican Assemblyman Howard Markelin who raised over 140K back in March.

    Well today, Democrat Pat Bomhack has decided to run for the Senate instead of the Assembly Seat. He was an aide to Congressman Kind and Senator Feingold, and  has proven fundraising and campaign chops when he ran for assembly last year as a clear underdog in the primary, and damn near won.

    I don't think Bomhack will quite catch up to Marklein's total, but he can make it competitive. I'd call it a Toss-up at this point.

    http://host.madison.com/...

    "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

    by BlueSasha on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:52:20 AM PDT

  •  A comment (15+ / 0-)

    based on my observations the past couple days...

    You know I was thinking, I could go to RedRacingHorses and spend a lot of time arguing with them about their read on races, trying to convince them that VA-10 is competitive (they think it's Likely GOP, bordering on Safe), that Cory Gardner is overrated, and so on.  But what's the point?  We are Democrats, and are ratings tend to be more favorable to Democrats.  They are Republicans, and their ratings tend to be more favorable to Republicans.  That's just the way of things.  Nothing new here.

    So rather than waste my time trying to convince commenters of the opposite party of my ratings on elections, I simply accept that we'll have to agree to disagree.  Just a thought.

    •  This is why... (4+ / 0-)

      I try to check myself before I turn super aggressive on things like race ratings. It isn't worth it. And I'm too busy to waste time on pie fights & flame wars. :-)

    •  Official DKE ratings are cold-blooded objective (9+ / 0-)

      David et al. don't wear blue-tinted glasses at all when they rate races here for the site's official ratings.

      Obviously there are individual DKE regulars who do comprehensive ratings with a Dem-friendly tilt.

      But the official site ratings are beyond reproach for objectivity.

      As far as RRH goes, I can count on one hand the number of times per year I have been visiting the site.  They are a much smaller community than us, smaller than SSP in the old days, and it seems maybe one-quarter of the comments there are from Democratic DKE regulars!  The comments I see there rarely teach me anything.  Once in a great while I've seen someone there link to a poll that hasn't yet been linked here, but it's usually Gravis or some R-friendly junk like that (not that there's anything wrong with linking to that).  I'm glad the Rs have their own community, it's good for everyone.  But I'm not surprised or impressed if their ratings are as you say, Skaje.

      Regarding VA-10 in particular, the GOP has an image of her as some sort of incredible machine.  That has been true in her Delegate races where her fundraising ability enabled her to do things no normal candidate or incumbent Delegate can do.  But moving up to the Big Leagues, it's harder, and John Foust has demonstrated more-than-equal strength as her with the same voters in the same locality.  She doesn't have any advantage over him as a candidate.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:03:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For me there is not doubt (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, Taget, MichaelNY

        David Nir and the DKE guys are fair rating.

        Taking into account how I do my ratings, I always find our differences well balanced. The differences are to both sides.

      •  I should have clarified (7+ / 0-)

        I was talking about the community consensus ratings on both sites.  The official RRH ratings are actually pretty close to the official DKE ratings.  And of course, anytime the DKE ratings come out there are plenty of us to quibble with them in the comments, usually alleging a GOP tilt.

        So that's what I meant, that nothing is really gained by Democrats and Republicans arguing with each other in the comments about the status of a race.  On the average, I can just about guarantee we will see things differently, and neither side will be convinced.  I'm not saying Republicans shouldn't bother posting on DKE, just that they should be looking for discussion, not arguments.

  •  Minimum wage increase cleared the HI House (8+ / 0-)

    There had been some squabbling between the two chambers...liberals have more complete power in the senate and their bill was more aggressive, but in the end they ironed out the differences.  It will increase the minimum wage (currently $7.25) to $10.10 in a few increments by January 2018.

    Republicans Sam Slom (in the Senate) and Bob McDermott (in the House) were the only no votes.  4 other Republicans in the House voted "aye with reservations".  Profiles in courage there.

    I remember only making around $6 an hour at my first jobs in Hawaii in 2006.  A long overdue increase, and part of a national movement to send the minimum wage upwards of $10.

  •  HI-Gov (4+ / 0-)

    The way Mufi Hannemann has phrased things, he has accepted the invitation of the newly created Independent Party of Hawaii to run for governor.  But what is the Independent Party?  Merely a group created earlier this year of Hannemann fundraisers and other supporters.  Some "independent" party...they'll vanish immediately after this election surely.

    Anyway, the "party" hasn't even filed anything yet meaning they have no money.  Hannemann is starting from absolute scratch as a third-party candidate with only 6 months to go to the election.  He's also embracing the centrist label, deliberately trying to get votes from both Abercrombie and Aiona.  The article also speculates that the specter of Governor Hannemann will spur liberal Democrats that have soured on Abercrombie to return home.

    I'm feeling a lot better about this race now than I was after Hannemann initially announced.  Considering Aiona also has barely even started his campaign, I think Abercrombie is pretty well positioned.  Could see this turning into something like a 55-30-15 (Dem-GOP-Ind) blowout by the end.

  •  PPP-AR: Pryor up 1 (11+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    43-42.
    Ross down by 38-46.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:37:31 AM PDT

    •  Governor's numbers would lead (6+ / 0-)

      to the conclusion that this was a Republican-friendly sample.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:41:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not bad (6+ / 0-)

      the sample seems awfully red-leaning and no way is Ross down by that much, but even then Pryor is still in it.

      Cotton's favorables are underwater.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:43:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LG poll is 39-30 for GOPer (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:44:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Land Commissioner (4+ / 0-)

      28% for R incumbent, 27% for D, and 17% for Libertarian (an Elvis Presley impersonator who changed his name to Elvis Presley???).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:46:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I've been thinking for awhile now (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, JBraden, MichaelNY

      even before Pryor's recent climb in polling, that the Senator should outperform Ross.  They could both win, or both lose of course, but incumbency is just such a big deal for Southern Democrats hoping to win an election that I expect Pryor to do better than Ross.

      That said, I'm not sure I believe a difference of 9 points between the margins for the two races.  Thought it would track closer than that.

      Regardless, Pryor's is clearly the more important office considering the weak veto system for Arkansas governors, and our majority in the Senate at stake.

    •  Here is the PPP link (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, abgin

      All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

      by tommypaine on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:56:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Republicans like the stat (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      that says that undecideds (15%) are heavily against Obama except that's too small a sample size to say that accurately.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:03:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, Pryor is going to have to win (9+ / 0-)

        a lot of people who are strongly against Obama anyway.

        I had kind of written this race off, but it certainly seems competitive.

        •  In the wake of better polling (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, KingTag, wadingo, MichaelNY

          I think Tossup is proper.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:06:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I have it at Tilt Dem, after so many polls have (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, bythesea, PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

            had him up. I'm feeling pretty good, only have Kentucky, Louisiana, and Alaska as tossups now, projecting to how I think the races shake out.

            The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

            by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:08:15 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Do you think we're going to win in NC? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Obviously, having a loon like Brannon basically seals the deal for us, and it'd be nice to move it off the board early, but Tillis doesn't seem like a stealth candidate for them, either.

              I am undecided on this race. Hagan is a good fit for the state and isn't controversial. She's not going to suffer due to a lack of money, even if she's heavily outspent, and while our luck hasn't been as strong in NC as it has been in VA, we still have a lot to work with, especially since they can only try to stop our guys from voting as opposed to gerrymandering us out of the race. The optimist in me says she can still win, and maybe she's favored to do so, but I'd like to see better polling.

              "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

              by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:20:52 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  yes (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, bjssp, JBraden, MichaelNY

                after Tillis emerges from the primary they will unload on him. My rating is based on a projection to November, not how it stands right now.

                The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:23:17 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I Still Say Tilt R..... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              The closer it gets to an election, the more likely a state reverts to partisan traditions.  I didn't see Pryor's mini-comeback coming a month ago, but I still think it's way too early in the cycle to be reading much into Senate race polling.  At this time two years, Linda McMahon stood poised to replace Lieberman in the Senate after all.

              •  Not quite (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                itskevin, LordMike, MichaelNY

                Chris Murphy consistently held a lead in the spring and early summer, as well as from October onward. His early lead fluctuated quite a bit, but McMahon only led in a few polls in late August and September. Even these were interspersed with polls showing Murphy leads, and I don't think many people took the McMahon leads very seriously.

      •  of course they are, it's Arkansas. (6+ / 0-)

        The marginal X% that Pryor needed to win was always going to be Romney voters.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:06:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  People always love to focus on the undecideds (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, LordMike, JBraden, MichaelNY

        Has there ever been an example where the undecideds did clearly come down heavily for one candidate?  Where this kind of analysis had any merit?

    •  The last week I debated with some people (0+ / 0-)

      that was not the moment to want a new Arkansas poll.

      Here is why.

      This poll can contribute to kill the Democratic momentum in Arkansas.

      It was not right to find these new numbers. It was the turn of the Republicans.

      •  "Momentum" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Must be one of the most overused meaningless words in amateur political analysis.
        Pryor is not going to win because of "Momentum", whatever that means.

        •  In a moment where the Democratic candidates (0+ / 0-)

          were favored by the public poll results is not too smart to find a new poll that only can:

          - In a best case, let the things like it were.
          - In a wors case, to give bad numbers that work agains othe previous numbers.

          This poll help not to the Democratic candidates, It is obvious.

        •  I don't know about that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          I think a long series of polls showing Pryor up might give Cotton some trouble fundraising. It can become a cycle.

          The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

          by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:25:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Why did they poll LG and Land Commissioner (?!) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      But not SoS or AG?

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:27:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Sen: Sasse internal has him up 6 points (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, Taget, MichaelNY

    Sasse     31
    Osborn   25
    Dinsdale 22
    McLeay   5

    507 respondents, April 26-28, no crosstabs or other detes.

    http://watchdog.org/...

    Dinsdale himself has seen a major surge, and after receiving (to the surprise of pretty much everyone) the Omaha World Herald endorsement this weekend, some are suggesting he could be the next Deb Fischer.

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:41:57 AM PDT

  •  Jackie Cilley's one weakness (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    is her support of an income tax.  In NH, that's a negative.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:45:52 AM PDT

  •  Senate GOP blocks minimum wage increase (13+ / 0-)

    It was the cloture vote, only got 54 votes.

    Looks like the Dems held together, Reid voted no for procedural reasons.

    Interestingly, Corker was the only Republican voting yes.

    Not blue staters like Collins or Kirk, or a quasi maverick like Murkowski. But Corker.

  •  KY-Sen: ALG with a web ad: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jorge Harris, Taget, MichaelNY

    http://youtu.be/...

    I still prefer the one filmed in Harlan County.  They need to make that a TV ad.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:55:04 AM PDT

    •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

      The one filmed in Harlan County should be skillfully excerpted. The first part, in which McConnell is damned with scenes of an abandoned coal mine, seems most important to me.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu May 01, 2014 at 01:12:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PPP-AR (8+ / 0-)

    Governor

    Hutchinson 46
    Ross 38

    Senate

    Pryor 43
    Cotton 42

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

    Check out the Land Commissioner race, lol.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:00:45 AM PDT

  •  Prominent Democrats to Possibly Buy LA Clippers (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, MichaelNY

    According to ESPN, David Geffen, Larry Ellison (who might not be a staunch Democrat like Geffen, but has given to them before) and Oprah (!!!) might be buying the Clippers.

    I'd rather Geffen spend his money to help us win elections, but I supposed he's got enough to do both. Same goes for Oprah.

    I wonder if Larry David would ever make a bid. It's simply amusing to see him at games, although he shouldn't extend his legs too far out, lest he trip someone like Shaq again.

    "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:13:24 AM PDT

    •  Now that they are doing well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      I imagine there will be a lot of buyers.

      Since you mentioned Larry David, I'm surprised Jerry Seinfeld has not bought some stake in the Mets.

      •  I remember reading Bill Maher did just that, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        which made one of my Republican uncles, who is a Mets fan, convinced there really was no hope, lol.

        "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

        by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:22:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They should let someone from Seattle buy the team. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp

      The Clippers are only in LA due to Sterlings ego.  People in LA wanted a second NBA team about as much as Boston would want a second NBA team competing against the Celtics.

      He just moved them there from an area that actually supported the team (San Diego) so he could hobnob with famous people.  He really is a disgraceful human being.

      Seattle really wants to get a team back and would love and embrace them.

      Of course as a Celtics fan my bias is towards the NBA backing off and letting Sterling keep the team and having everything on the Clippers implode.  My Boston Celtics hold the Clippers 2015 draft pick without any lottery protection.  Burn baby, burn!

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:11:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  138 straight sellouts (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MetroGnome, MichaelNY

        They aren't moving the Clippers, that's a guarantee. They play in a very good stadium on a dirt cheap lease and make gobs of money with famous stars. LA might not have asked for two teams but they sure can support two teams.

        30, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Angels_427

        by uclabruin18 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:16:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-11: NRCC cuts off Michael Grimm. (13+ / 0-)

    Yesterday Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis denied reports she reached out to the NRCC.  Though she did of course make sure to indicate she was tanned, rested, and ready if Grimm stepped aside. Or as she put it.

    But she did say that that stance could change if circumstances changed with Grimm.

    "There is no seat to run for," Ms. Malliotakis told the Advance. "He is on the ballot, he is running for re-election."

    But should Grimm not be on the ballot in the fall, Ms. Malliotakis said she "is not ruling out" that she would have an "interest" in the seat.

    http://www.silive.com/...

    But of course the same day the NRCC has cancelled a May fundraiser for the congressman and remove him from their "Patriot's Program."  Whether or not the NRCC is in touch with Nicole they seem to be giving Grimm a bit hint on what they think he should do.

    WASHINGTON — House Republican leaders are cutting off Staten ­Island Rep. Michael Grimm, denying cash infusions to the embattled lawmaker’s re-election campaign.

    Without the campaign dough from DC, Grimm is effectively on his own as he tries to win in a competitive district while under federal indictment for tax fraud, obstruction and perjury.

    “As long as these legal issues are playing out there, we’re going to hold off,” National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) told The Post Tuesday, a day ­after Grimm was indicted.

    “We have to look where we can go win seats. In any race, certain dynamics cause you to re-evaluate. And certainly a 20-count indictment causes you to re-evaluate,” Walden added.

    http://nypost.com/...

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:16:33 AM PDT

  •  FL-Gov: looking closely at Q, Scott is FUCKED (14+ / 0-)

    Excuse my language or not, I don't care.

    But the Q-poll release convinced me Crist is going to win comfortably.

    The thing about Q to be worried about is that they can be volatile in their results, and thus not always reliable.

    But Q at its best demonstrates consistency over time, especially when little is happening that should change any numbers.

    Well, you look at Q's trendlines, and they reveal plenty about how fucked Rick Scott really is.

    The ballot test has been steady for a year, Q has had Crist in the narrow 46-48 range, and Scott in a narrow 37-40 range.

    Scott's favorables have been always underwater, 39-46 now and never better than negative 40-42 for a year.

    Scott's job approvals, too, have been always underwater, 42-50 now and never better than negative 43-44 for a year...and perhaps he's been negative in all polls for the entire 4 years.

    Scott's "deserve to be reelected" numbers have been always deep undewater, 39-53 now and that's actually his all-time best!

    Crist, for his part, has had positive favorables in every poll, and strong retrospective job approvals in the 50s in every poll.

    Scott suffers a long-term dislike of him by most Florida voters.  His only chance is, indeed, to completely tear down Crist......but political reality is that you can't persuade beyond the material that's really available, and there isn't much available to hurt Crist's image.

    Crist's party switch is about it as a vulnerability, you can try to make hey with his integrity, but Q-poll has Crist 2 points positive now on "honest and trustworthy" compared to 2 points negative last fall.  And Scott himself is deep underwater on that character question, at a pathetic 38-51 now.  Scott also is deep underwater on "cares about needs and problems of people like you" at 38-55, compared to Crist at positive 48-42.  Crist also bests Scott by a big margin on "strong leadership qualities," though both are positive there (and it's the only question where Scott is positive).

    Q-poll's consistency over time in these Florida polls makes them trustworthy to me.

    Rick Scott is fucked.

    46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:18:08 AM PDT

  •  Rick Perry's Political Career Is Officially Over (9+ / 0-)

    Despite the baptism he just underwent, I think it's safe to say his political career is over. Why? Because Dick Morris says he can come back.

    Sorry, Rick. Maybe you and Giuliani can team up for a new LifeLock ad or you can Fred Thompson can pitch reverse mortgages.

    "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

    by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:29:39 AM PDT

  •  If I was God (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, jncca, MichaelNY

    something I'd like knowing is...

    of the people who say they are "undecided" in normal political polling, like today's Arkansas one, what percentage of those people actually vote for one or the other candidate?

    I mean this in a law of large numbers way.  It's a natural reaction to try and apportion these people, and some certainly do vote in the end, but some also won't even know when election day is, let alone vote for anybody.

    All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

    by tommypaine on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:44:48 AM PDT

    •  I eagerly await the type of day Ray Kurzweil (0+ / 0-)

      says isn't too far off, where we have chips floating around us and we are all connected to Google or something. Maybe it'll be easier to get better polling results. It should be faster, at least.

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:50:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's a good question (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, jncca, jj32, MichaelNY

      I remember in October 2012 when the last NBC/WSJ poll came out, one thing the NBC political team wrote on their First Read blog was that the undecideds in their poll were so negative about both candidates and about politics more generally that they looked like likely non-voters, even though they made it through a likely voter screen.

      And yet I don't think that's necessarily true as a rule, I think in many elections the undecideds in a poll are people who aren't negative on both candidates or so deeply cynical broadly, but instead are legitimately unsure who to vote for.

      The other factor is that this far out, still 6 months, there really are a lot of reliable voters who just aren't yet willing to think about who to vote for.  They care enough to vote, but don't care enough about politics to bother following the election or think about it when it's still so far away.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:20:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NJ 3: McArthur's insurance company accused (6+ / 0-)

    of cheating hurricane victims.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:53:49 AM PDT

    •  It's like Lonegan's capaign is filling in (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, betelgeux

      mab lib-style responses. I'm surprised they didn't accuse him of murdering some puppies.

      "Tom MacArthur's sleazy insurance practices have been blatantly exposed by this devastating story," said Lonegan campaign manager, Chris Santora. "The article speaks directly to the character of Tom MacArthur, his shady business practices, and his true lack of compassion for his fellow man.

      "Tom MacArthur made his millions with his own unique brand of insurance salesman double-talk and deception of unsuspecting, hardworking, God-fearing men and women across America," Santora added. "This story clearly leaves liberal Tom MacArthur's campaign, character, and image in shambles."

      "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

      by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:57:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Delicious, so even if MacArthur gets the nom (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY, Trosk

      he still has major baggage.  It also creates an opening for Belgard in places like Tom's River and Brick.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:44:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Both candidates are shoobies (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but Lonegan is more in the mould of a brash North Jerseyan than MacArthur.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:47:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Happy Walpurgis! (8+ / 0-)

    Tonight, many Swedes (but not me) will be heading for a bonfire, and the teenagers will get as drunk as their bodies can handle. Everyone's off tomorrow thanks to May 1 being Labor Day here, and as it's on a Thursday, I get the Friday off as well.

    Just wanted to inform you guys heading for school or work tomorrow.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:02:26 AM PDT

  •  FL-Gov: Buddy MacKay endorses Rich (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA, gabjoh

    Buddy Mackay, the last Democrat to serve as Governor of Florida (serving for just 23 days between the death of Lawton Chiles and the swearing-in of Jeb Bush, who roundly defeated MacKay in the 1998 election), has endorsed Nan Rich for the Democratic nomination.

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:20:10 PM PDT

  •  Found this old Pew Research poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    from 2012 saying that the GOP has a 63% advantage with Mormons. That definitely needs to change if Utah is to stop being so ridiculously Republican. But how, I wonder?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:36:26 PM PDT

    •  And Idaho (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      Nt

      Moderate Republican, PA-5

      by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:50:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

        Though I don't live in Idaho. And it's not quite as Mormon (or conservative) as Utah.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 12:59:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Idaho (6+ / 0-)

        is basically like Oklahoma, I think. A few decades back both were like West Virginia, culturally conservative but populist and open to Democrats. Idaho had a Democratic governor from the late '60s up through the 90s if memory serves. But between the mining industry collapse in Idaho and the slow-motion collapse of the independent farmer throughout rural America empowered the far right and led to the usual things: right-to-work laws, anti-abortion absolutism, youth flight and so forth. At this point there's not much left to build on.

        •  Idaho is not like Oklahoma... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, sacman701, WisJohn, MichaelNY

          Before the 90s, the primary cleavage in Idaho was on class lines between D-voting, unionized proletarians and R-voting farmers/Mormons/the managerial class in Boise. On the surface, this appears to be similar to Oklahoma's chief political divide before the 90s: lower income, rural Democrats vs. middle class/urban and farmer Republicans. However Idaho, outside of the Mormon southeast, is not particularly culturally conservative. Ada County gave marriage equality a higher percentage of the vote than Obama in 2006. Idaho is not a very religious place. It certainly has a big Evangelical undercurrent thanks to incoming Californians but before the 90s, northern Idaho was pretty dechurched.

          What really did the Democrats in, outside of the obvious gutting of working class institutions, were events like the Sagebrush Rebellion, gun control and the like. Idaho is culturally conservative in its distaste for the federal government but it is not a hotbed for Focus on the Family style politics. Bill Sali lost ID-1 largely because he acted like he represented a southern suburban district that wants to crucify gays instead of a section of Idaho that is largely apathetic about sodomy, sex and islam.

    •  The Repubs would have to jump the shark (0+ / 0-)

      in terms of supporting protestant evangelicals to turn off Mormons.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:12:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I dunno (8+ / 0-)

      I think it's just such a strong cultural fit. My experiences growing up in a Mormon-heavy area in the '90s were somewhat mixed, I had some independent-minded Mormon friends, but so many just had that stereotypical old-time small-town personality type, you know, respect your elders, Boy Scouts, relentlessly pleasant, dream of that finance job and big house in the suburbs types. In two words: white and square. Which is fine, not my thing but I don't mean to rag or anything, but that's a personality type that in my experience tends to be strongly drawn to Republicans.

      •  Sure, but at the same time (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Enough Mormons in Salt Lake County have voted for Democrats like Jim Matheson and County Mayor Ben McAdams (and Peter Corroon, who isn't even Mormon) to make a difference. The County even voted for Obama in 2008. SLCO is less Mormon than the rest of the state, but it still has a massive Mormon population. So what makes them different from the rest of the state; having to live with non-Mormons, I suppose?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:43:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Opps, forgot to finish my point (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I meant to also wonder how we could get the non-Dem (or non-Dem leaner) Mormons in Salt Lake County to vote for Dems. They're the biggest prize since about 40% of the state is in Salt Lake County alone.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:44:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  If I may inquire, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            You're not the only Democrat in your immediate family, are you?

            Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

            by WisJohn on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:23:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Nope (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, MichaelNY, James Allen

              I have two sisters, both of which lean towards the liberal portion of the Democratics (especially since both are ex-Mormon and one is LGBT). My (believing Mormon) brother doesn't care about politics but is kinda Republican (definitely a "independent conservative" type. My (believing Mormon) mom says she votes for anyone who she feels is a good candidate, but considering she's a Glenn Beck fan, is probably a party-line Republican. My dad is an ex-Mormon anarchist atheist who used to be a libertarian, but has lost all faith in all institutions.

              Don't know about extended family, but I don't talk to them much. I'm the only Mormon Democrat in my family, at least.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:27:35 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  more urban, cosmopolitan, diverse etc. (5+ / 0-)

          that is what makes all the big western cities more Democratic than the rest of the states they're in.

          The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

          by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:48:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah. In the near future, in Utah, Democrats (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            will have to do better with Mormons to have any chance at winning. Over the longer term, if the state diversifies enough, perhaps there will be enough of other types of voters to let them cobble together a coalition.

            "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:47:00 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Polls for Matheson (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              show a huge generational gap.  Utah's unique demographics mean that age-related demographic shifts will occur faster than in other states, since the size difference in age cohorts is larger.  That said, it isn't close today.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:25:10 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Mormons are the bread and butter of the GOP (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Mormon allegiance to the GOP transcends religion: the sociological character of white Mormons is very "middle-management" oriented. BYU is renowned for its business school and its accounting program. If that it isn't the essence of the Republican Party, I don't know what it is...

        •  old v. new (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, aamail6, gabjoh

          Mormons are a good fit for the party of business. Since about 1990 (or arguably since Goldwater) the GOP has increasingly become the party of white resentment, and most Mormons aren't a good fit for that because they aren't resentful enough.

          SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 03:55:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yet Utah wasn't reliably GOP (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MetroGnome, MichaelNY

            until the 1950s, and is as Republican now as it has ever been.  White resentment is a great fit for the church that was all-White until 1978.  A majority of Utah's voters were born into an all-White church, which is no different than Alabama or Mississippi where Whites and Blacks generally go to different churches.  Add in social issues to the White resentment and you've got GOP dominance, even without the Boy Scout/middle America mentality of most Mormons.

            1948 (GOP party of business): D+1.5
            1956 (GOP party of business): R+7
            1964 (Goldwater): R+6.5
            1972 (pre-Roe): R+11.5
            since 1976 (post-Roe): never less than R+13

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 05:45:14 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Suburban versus rural shift (0+ / 0-)

              As well as shifts in the composition of the Democratic party.

              Pre-civil rights movement, I suspect rural Mormons leaned Dem.

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:27:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  That seems low (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MetroGnome

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:14:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  ... That is so fetch (0+ / 0-)

      24 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 10:33:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ohio Primary Guide (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Skaje

    Here's a link to a guide I wrote for the primaries coming up next week: http://www.dailykos.com/...

  •  Amazing that LePage can't fundraise (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, JBraden, Jorge Harris, MichaelNY

    for shit, even though he theoretically has a chance at winning if Cutler doesn't fade. I wouldn't bet on that but it's at least possible to imagine. Meanwhile Tom Corbett rakes in over $1 mil even though he has no chance at all of hanging on, it's not even possible. Thank goodness Republicans don't know how best to make use of their money.

    •  How do they undercut Cutler? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Do they ignore him and just focus on beating LePage?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:10:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If it comes to it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        go hard negative on Cutler leading up to the election.  But ignoring him and trying to keep all the focus on LePage and Michaud is the better strategy.  The more Maine news plays it up as a 2-person race, the more Cutler's supporters (both GOP and Dem leaning) will abandon him.

      •  Pretty much (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        That would be my advice. Make LePage's record and LePage's personality issues one and two. Attack him as unstable and incompetent, an accidental governor who has not earned another term. Attacking Cutler would make it seem like Michaud is afraid of him and legitimizes the 3-way race narrative, dismissing him as a spoiler with no real issues would be the better way to go (and accurate to boot). Better to constantly attack LePage and implicitly set up Michaud as the viable alternative. Best way to marginalize Cutler is to make him irrelevant to the overall equation.

  •  WV-03: Here's an indication that the Repub (7+ / 0-)

    isn't where he wants to be right now in his internal polling: https://twitter.com/...

    Also, I do like Rahall's latest ad: https://www.youtube.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:09:30 PM PDT

  •  Rand Paul campaigns for Brannon (7+ / 0-)

    I used to live in NC, if Brannon were to win the nomination I just would not vote in the senate election.  Utterly irresponsible for someone like me to vote for someone like that.  And Paul is the icing on the cake, I despise Sen. Paul and Cruz...  Loudmouths that don't deserve the megaphones that they brought to congress.  Nothing more than a headache for Reid and McConnell to deal with, I hope that Paul can't run for Senate and President in 2016 and the Democrats of the KY house are cutting the national GOP a break.  I will not vote for Paul in the 2016 primary or the general, no way no how. I will not support people who seek to break the GOP's legs either (Paul and Cruz).

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:14:29 PM PDT

  •  ILGOV: Feds launch criminal probe of Quinn program (5+ / 0-)
    A criminal grand jury has launched a probe into Gov. Pat Quinn’s troubled anti-violence program —  once likened to “a political slush fund” — delivering a major blow to the Democrat as he seeks re-election this fall.

    On Tuesday, the Quinn administration turned over 1,000 documents pertaining to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative to the Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez following a subpoena from her office.

    The request was issued to the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity on March 19 and sought records tied to the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative — including those for the Chicago Area Project, a program tied to the husband of Cook County Circuit Court Clerk Dorothy Brown.

    Link

    Things seem to be getting worse and worse for Quinn and one of the few good things going for him is that he was supposedly less corrupt than the other Govs he was "clean". I guess if he loses in Nov it's the Dems punishment for not pushing harder to get him to retire or find a primary opponent.

  •  Ny-21: Stefanik has history of late (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

    property tax payments.

    I dont think the late payments are necessarily an issue, but they are on a house in Washington DC, so it might be used by Dohney to highlight the fact that she has mostly been a DC strategist for her career.

  •  Where should PPP poll? (4+ / 0-)

    Choices are CT, IL, MN, MS, NE, OR, and RI.

    http://t.co/...

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:40:16 PM PDT

    •  Illinois or CT probably make the most sense. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje

      The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

      by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:49:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why is Oregon winning? (0+ / 0-)

      There is literally NO action going on there this year except maybe the governor's race but that's only if Dem environment worsens. And Merkley is safe here too. I voted for Minnesota because I'd like to see some polling in MN-02, 07, and 08.

      18 year old gay Democrat living bright blue in deep red SC-04 (Gowdy). "You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one." - John Lennon

      by SCDem4 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:49:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  probably cheating (0+ / 0-)

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:50:39 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, gabjoh

          if you go to the state breakdown, most of the percentages make sense, like 25%, 50%, 60%, 67%, 100% indicating common breakdowns with very few votes cast.  Yet out of Ohio, somehow 99% of the state's votes are being cast for Oregon, indicating a massive stuffing going on.

          As I always say, PPP is quite aware of this every time it happens and dumps those votes.  Doesn't stop people from trying.

        •  There might also be stuffing for Nebraska (0+ / 0-)

          Currently at a very strong 2nd place despite not many of PPP's followers caring about how the GOP primary shakes out in this Senate race, since there aren't any competitive Democrats this year.  Virginia is going 91% for Nebraska, which indicates a large number of votes (and probable stuffing) compared to all the other 50% and 75% states which might only have 4 or 8 total votes.

      •  When was the last time Oregon was polled? (0+ / 0-)

        I don't even think we have had a poll since the CoverOregon disaster we don't what's going with Kitzhaber or Merkley either. And I wouldn't describe a Governor's race and a Senate election in the same year as "no action" it's a lot more going on than half the states on that list.

        •  then you haven't been paying attention (0+ / 0-)

          polls have come out the last few weeks.

          The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

          by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 01:59:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Two polls one from R pollster and one from Merkely (0+ / 0-)

            Both likely skewed one way or the other I'd like to get an independent look at the state of things. And there's just one poll of the Gov race this entire year from an Repub pollster showing Kitzhaber only up 3.

            •  Merkley is safely up in all of the polls, though (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              itskevin

              and given Kitzhaber has raised 4 or 5 times the amount his most likely opponent has, it is unlikely to be competitive regardless of what Harper has.

              The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

              by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:09:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  One from each side (0+ / 0-)

          Benenson Strategy Group, April 14–17, 2014   
          Merkley 50-34 over Conger.
          Harper Polling, April 1-2, 2014
          Merkley 47-40 over Conger.

          Benenson Strategy Group, April 14–17, 2014
          Merkley 52-32 over Wehby.
          Harper Polling, April 1–2, 2014    
          Merkley 46-34 over Wehby.

          There has been some buzz surrounding that ad so not surprising people want to look but keep in mind the polls in 2012 consistently showed a much closer presidential race than it proved to be.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:04:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not true (0+ / 0-)

        We will probably have marijuana and possibly have marriage equality on the ballot this November.

        Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:24:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  PPP would never break down separate CD polls (0+ / 0-)

        in a state with 8 CDs when the most they've ever done is 2CD states (NH springs to mind), but they've even said this year when they switched to part non-landline samples that they were going to seriously slow down on the volume of CD polls in general.

        So Minnesota would be literally just the governor and senate races for 2014 where we're obviously ahead. I doubt they'd poll any other statewide races, so that state is a pretty big waste.

    •  I admit I voted for Oregon (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jj32, PSUCentrePA

      Because it would likely be good news for the Democrats. And I like that. Every headline helps create momentum.

      19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

      by Tayya on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:04:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Mississippi (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bjssp

      It's the only one with an interesting Senate race, and I don't care much about governor's races outside of my own.

      You don't fight the fights you can win. You fight the fights that need fighting. -President Andrew Sheppard (D-Wisconsin)

      by Gpack3 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:16:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Went with Illinois. Too many crappy R pollsters (6+ / 0-)

      give us a poor picture of the actual race. It seems very probable that Quinn is in terrible shape, but I'd like a solid pollster to confirm. Plus there are some downballot statewide races.

      Connecticut is a solid second choice and David has been pushing for it. The only pollster asking about CT-Gov has been Qpac.

  •  PA GOV: McCord hits Wolf in new ad (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ehstronghold, MichaelNY

    He has been releasing a lot of good ads lately he may be gaining traction along with Schwartz but this is basically a three way race now with McGinty not even being a factor.

  •  Andy Barkett reportedly demoted at RNC (4+ / 0-)

    HuffPo reports that Barkett, a former Facebook engineer who was brought into help beef up tech and data operations, is taking a more diminished role at the RNC.

    RNC says it's just routine, to comply with campaign finance laws, but according to Huffpo's source, Barkett is actually likely to leave the RNC altogether, but for appearances, will stay on officially through the midterms.

    Unclear what this means for the RNC's tech innovation project.

    link

  •  PA-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, jj32, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

    I think there's something else going on in that first McCord ad, and it's not about policy:

    Meanwhile, Corbett has a new radio ad which suggests his polling is telling him the Dem race is down to two candidates, neither of whom is McCord.

  •  NH GOP Chair supoeanaed by NJ committee (7+ / 0-)

    due to his former involvement with the Christie administration: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 02:43:39 PM PDT

  •  Gabby Giffords is continuing to improve. (14+ / 0-)

    She was honored last night at an EMILY's List event last night. She gave a speech and did a pretty good job.

    http://abcnews.go.com/...

    •  I hope she comes back to Congress one day (6+ / 0-)

      She's still relatively young (especially for a politician), and could do a lot of good.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 03:50:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  With continued improvement, maybe so. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 04:11:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Comeback in 2016? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Barber will probably want to retire by then if he wins in 2014 (I really think he saw himself as keeping her seat warm), and she can beat McSally (or anybody else) in AZ-02 in 2016 if he loses in 2014.  I'd say she might run for Senate in 2016 if McCain retires, but I'm not 100% sure she'll be up for that.

          Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

          by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:41:39 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Is a Senate run that much more grueling (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            gabjoh

            than a House run? I know, in most cases, you're talking about a larger geographic area, and with Giffords, running for a House seat would be easier because it'd be friendlier territory. Still, if she's up for one, isn't it safe to assume she's up for the other?

            "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

            by bjssp on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:49:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  much more expensive (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and much more ground to cover than her district that was confined to the Tuscon area.

              The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

              by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:54:29 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think she'd have fundraising problems... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ChadmanFL, MichaelNY

                Of course neither would her sure to be backed hard by NRA challenger.  

                Glenn Greenwald promotes far-right fringe extremist group The Oath Keepers - https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statuses/377787818619064320

                by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:57:31 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  I agree, but it'll still be more expensive. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Much more.

                  The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                  by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:10:10 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  But Senate would be an open seat (0+ / 0-)

                    If she ran for the House it would probably be against an incumbent republican.

                    •  does that make it less expensive than senate? (0+ / 0-)

                      No.

                      The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                      by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:46:39 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  ah, more expensive. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                        by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:47:33 PM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Honestly, you think she'd have any trouble? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        It took Flake $9 mill raised to win the 2012 AZ Senate race.  Took Barber almost $3 mill raised to win AZ-02 in 2012.  It's not like we're talking needing 10x as much for Senate, more like 3x as much.

                        •  I don't (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          the question was if it would be "that much more grueling" than a house race. It would definitely be more work.

                          The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                          by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:57:45 PM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Depends on the GOP nominee (0+ / 0-)

                            It'll probably be some nutter House Rep like Salmon, Schweikert or Gosar.  I don't think it would be THAT grueling.

                          •  Schweikert is popular (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, jncca

                            and a strong campaigner.

                            You seriously don't think running a US senate race in Arizona would be that tough for a Democrat, as we haven't won one since the 1980s?

                            The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

                            by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:09:35 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  In a Presidential election year? (0+ / 0-)

                            No, Tossup at worst with Giffords.  We lost the 2012 open seat race by a razor thin 49-46 margin with a 2nd tier candidate in Carmona who was out raised 3-2.  

                          •  Flake was battered and broke after the primary (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

                            Cardon spent more than Carmona.

                            When's the last time someone whose base was in southern AZ won statewide?

                            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                            by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 09:12:41 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Ya.. that primary was a real nail-biter (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Trosk, MichaelNY

                            Flake just barely squeaked by with a 69-21% win over Cardon.

                          •  Did I claim it was competitive? (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            It did, however, significantly hurt Flake's favorables, and his cash-on-hand.  It had a non-negligible impact on both of those factors, which is a big part of why the general was as close as it was.  Had we turned out more voters in AZ-07 and AZ-03, we'd have had a real shot with Carmona, but that was largely due to a big assist from GOP (Cardon) and the 3rd party vote.

                            http://www.azcentral.com/...

                            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                            by benamery21 on Thu May 01, 2014 at 10:04:49 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Oh, I should probably mention (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            I was an early Carmona donor.

                            Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

                            by benamery21 on Thu May 01, 2014 at 10:18:42 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

            •  District is R+3, state is R+7 (based on 08-12) (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              She has unique circumstances in the district that make it a near lock despite the PVI.  That isn't true (IMO) at the statewide level (although even at that level, she'd probably have the advantage of not getting hit with super-negative ads), it would be a much more grueling campaign in my opinion.  

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:10:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  McCain isn't getting re-nominated either way (0+ / 0-)

            If he runs he's going to lose the primary.  His numbers are abysmal among republicans.  It's almost certainly going to be an open Senate seat in 2016.

            •  A lot can happen in a couple years (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I wouldn't count McCain out just yet.  The AZ-Gov contest will play a huge role in the political climate in AZ between 2014-16 elections.  

              Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

              by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:54:47 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  I doubt McCain is going to run for re-election (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And even if he does he's probably going to lose the primary.  I'd love to see her run for that Senate seat.

    •  Last night, of course! (0+ / 0-)
    •  She's a bright lady (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Gygaxian, MichaelNY

      I'm awfully glad she wasn't even worse hurt.  She has an immense amount of goodwill in Southern AZ over this tragedy, if she doesn't have to or decide to wait too long.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:46:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  she's getting there (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      That was vastly improved over the last clip I saw of her speaking. Based on that I wouldn't be surprised if she were able to run for something in 2016.

      SSP poster. 44, CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 08:09:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  She sounds so much better! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I feel better about her returning to the political stage.

      26, Practical Progressive Democratic Socialist (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 11:32:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  OR-Sen: Wehby declines a televised debate (11+ / 0-)

    link

    "It's been a long time since we've been turned down by a major-race candidate," said KGW Executive News Director Rick Jacobs.  "I can't remember the last time it's happened."
    Willamette Week endorsed Conger:
    A candidate is certainly entitled to change her mind. But watching Wehby fumble her way through a 90-minute job interview convinced us that, however skilled she may be with a scalpel, she could use a lot more training than her out-of-state political consultants have provided.
    ...
    A former Oregon Medical Association president, Wehby waffled endlessly when she tried to describe which parts of major health-care reform she might have supported in the past. When pressed, Wehby acknowledged she’d vote to repeal the entire ACA if the question was put to her in the U.S. Senate.
    ...
    In two terms in the Oregon House, Conger has produced a conservative record that—as noted above—is often out of step with our views. But at least he has clear, consistent positions. He’s shown strong support for charter schools but also crossed the aisle to push for legislation calling for toxic-chemical labeling and criticizing corporate welfare. He’s tough and sometimes too enamored of the sound of his own voice. But he’s far more prepared than Wehby to stand up to incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and give Merkley a serious challenge.
    That's a pretty devastating assessment of Wehby.

    The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 06:00:24 PM PDT

  •  Rick Scott's former LG feels betrayed writing book (12+ / 0-)
    When Gov. Rick Scott appears in Orange Park on Monday to kickoff his re-election campaign, his former sidekick from nearby Fleming Island will be somewhere waiting for an apology she expects will never come.

    Former Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll told The Florida Times-Union on Wednesday she felt cheated by Scott and his top staff for abandoning her 13 months ago when she was abruptly asked to resign the state’s second highest office. It was her first interview with the Times-Union since she left office in March 2013.

    Link

    LOL! Can things get any worse for Scott.

  •  Rob Ford taking leave of absence (12+ / 0-)

    to seek help for substance abuse.

    The Globe and Mail is reporting another video of him using drugs has surfaced.

    link.

  •  Breaking: Toronto Mayor Ford still loves crack (7+ / 0-)

    But this is elections-related. Ford loves crack so much, he's suspending his already absurd reelection campaign to "get help" for his addiction problems. All the best to him. (Also, there's another video of him smoking crack -- allegedly from this past weekend.) Story here.

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:02:35 PM PDT

  •  Pie Town (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.baltimoresun.com/...

    I'm def going here at some point now that I'm already out here. Anyone been?

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 8 states across America. Managed races in VA and DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Wed Apr 30, 2014 at 07:32:11 PM PDT

  •  FL 2016 Quinnipiac (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    Clinton up on all Republicans from 8 (Bush) to 26 (Cruz). 18 over Christie,

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

    by Paleo on Thu May 01, 2014 at 03:07:02 AM PDT

  •  New York Senate 11 (0+ / 0-)

    is an odd shaped district in Queens. I don't know the area well enough to know if it is largely Chinese. Queens is the most ethnically diverse county in the USA

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