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 photo Ebola_map_zps418a473b.jpg

This post is meant as a brief update of my post of Wednesday, June 25, entitled Ebola "out of control, we have reached the limits of what we can do," says Doctors Without Borders, wherein Dr. Bart Janssens, Director of Operations of Doctors Without Borders (known locally as MSF for Médecins Sans Frontières), said  “(t)he epidemic is out of control,” and vastly more resources are needed to deal with the outbreak of the Ebola virus in Western Africa. “We have reached our limits. Despite the human resources and equipment deployed by MSF in the three affected countries, we are no longer able to send teams to the new outbreak sites.”  

Yesterday, the World Health Organization announced updated numbers which are reported by Susannah Locke of Vox, who writes The deadliest Ebola outbreak in history is happening right now. The WHO says the new death toll is 367 with a total number of cases reaching over 600.

The outbreak has now hit three countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. And the virus — which starts off with flu-like symptoms and often ends with horrific hemorrhaging — has infected about 600 people and killed an estimated 367 since this winter, according to the numbers on June 26 from the World Health Organization.

On June 23, the humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders sent out a distress call. As the only aid organization treating people with Ebola, the group said it was "overwhelmed," that the epidemic was out of control, and that it couldn't send workers to new outbreak sites without getting more resources.

Journalist David Quammen put it well in a recent New York Times op-ed: "Ebola is more inimical to humans than perhaps any known virus on Earth, except rabies and HIV-1. And it does its damage much faster than either."

The viruses are constantly circulating in animals, most likely bats. Every once in a while, the disease spills over into humans, often when someone handles or eats undercooked or raw meat from a diseased ape, monkey, or bat. An outbreak can then happen for several months. And then it becomes quiet, again.

This latest outbreak started in  a rural region of Guinea, probably in late 2013, and now spread to Sierra Leone and Liberia, including densely populated urban areas of Conakry, Guinea's capital, and Monrovia, capital of Liberia.  

There are five strains of Ebola and this is a mutation of the Zaire strain which is the deadliest which has killed 79% of those it has infected. Although, this Guinea strain is genetically 3% different from the Zaire strain meaning it diverged "quite" some time ago and will probably be given a new name once scientists have all the proper meetings.

 photo Ebola_virus_species_death_rates_zps22022c5a.png

This article by Susannah Locke of Vox provides a lot of interesting background if you are just become aware of this story. She uses a question and answer format that makes for easy Friday night reading. For example.

"Do Does Ebola really make people bleed from their eyes?

Yes. Bleeding from orifices is one of the more unusual and memorable symptoms of viral hemorrhagic fevers like Ebola. In later stages of the disease, some people bleed from the eyes, nose, ears, mouth, and rectum. They may also bleed from puncture sites if they've had an IV.

Ebola is not easy to catch is not likely to reach U.S. shores. In comments in previous posts readers often worry that Ebola will mutate to a form that can be spread by air, but scientists tell us this is highly unlikely.

So for those of you worried about dying a horrible death from Ebola Viral Disease, relax, you are far more likely to die from MERS, SARS, or a mutation of the avian flu to a form that can be spread by airborne form, which biologist tell us is only a matter of time. Avian flu has a mortality rate of 10%, however, this should fall in in the 3 or 4 months it takes to spread around the world after the mutation. So don't worry about Ebola, it a misplacement of your anxieties. (Snark alert.)

One a serious note, one of the reasons I report on these epidemiological risk is that they highlight the wisdom and value of our Democratic Party's support for investing in government public health research and spending with such programs such as the Centers for Disease Control, the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Health, The Food and Drug Administration, and support for the U.H. World Health Organization.

Also, Doctors Without Bordes, aka Mer Médecins Sans Frontières is a private charitable organization sustained by charitable donations, so please consider a donation.

7:00 PM PT: I need to retract this statement as it turns out to be impossible to know the actual probability of which kind of horrible death you are most likely to die from from, or how much agony you might suffer. I' sorry for any false hope or optimism I may filled you with.

I was just trying to appear to be responsible and vaguely reassuring as a cover for making a dubious gallows humor joke about a global pandemic potentially leading to the death of 10% of the population of earth, and figured as if it was already into Friday evening when most of you know I host the a Friday Night Sillies, I was just trying to get a few cheap laughs at the expense of massive human suffering on a scale of which is almost unimaginable.g


So for those of you worried about dying a horrible death from Ebola Viral Disease, relax, you are far more likely to die from MERS, SARS, or a mutation of the avian flu to a form that can be spread by airborne form, which biologist tell us is only a matter of time.


So, I was prepared to be called an barbaric heartless savage, or at least a crassly insensitive and heartless %$$^&()y, for such a  mirthy allusion crossing across perhaps hundreds of millions of deaths. Imagine, my surprise when the reason I have to retract this paragraph is because it too optimistic, and glosses over the possibilities of the Andromeda strain scenario, and realistic possibilities that ebola as an active evolutionary organism may be adapting to be going global.  

And, of course, it has been on the top of the list of potential bio-terrorism agents for decades, so I can't possibly know what the probability is that a terrorist group, or irresponsible government, responsible government, defense contractor, corporation, wanna-be bio-warfare company, vaccine researcher, criminal gang, pharmaceutical company, wanna-be biotech entrepreneur, gene-spliccer, wanna-be biology PhD candidate, underemployed journalist, rogue opportunist, or disgruntled biology PhD drop out ,pirate, smuggler, arms dealer,  or an unimaginably long list of other people that might want to obtain samples of the Ebola virus for potential profit, fame, fortune, revenge, career advancement, or curiosity might have already done so, and already brought them into the U.S.  

The Reston strain of Ebola already escaped from a lob in Reston, Va. and we know 80 plus scientists were exposed by to Anthrax by accident last week.

So I retract that statement and apologize for any excess optimism or reassurance I may have errantly lead to you believe..

7:13 PM PT:  photo Ebola_map_zps418a473b.jpg

I've enlarged this map so you can better see the geography of the areas of confirmed and suspected cases shown in brown, and the areas reporting suspected cases.

Only because of the limits of time and space, and also perhaps, a little following the lead of the World Health Organization trying to avoid causing panic, I have not reported a number of reports as well as analysis from professors and other independent experts who are saying that the actual number of cases is likely to be higher, perhaps, substantially higher than the WHO numbers indicate.

For, one thing many of the cases are not even known or reported as they are in rural regions with which there has been no communication. As teams have gone into some regions they have found entire villages abandoned, with the dead bodies of entire families in some huts, and the rest of the village abandoned.

Also, yesterday, Searra Leone asked the WHO to stop reported suspected cases but only cases that are confirmed with an official lab test, and WHO has agreed, and lowered the numbers.

But, if one looks at the map and squints one "can almost imagine" the reality could be one large brown blob that already takes up at least 2/3 of the total areas of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Do you see how the outline of the brown areas  can almost be connected together in one blob?

As evidence based scientists we do not want to get ahead of our data.

But as "battle commanders" in a species war with a hostile virus which could be breaking out of containment we also do not want to be stupid.

If the World Health Organization has blundered by being excessively willing to accommodate the political, and economic sensitivities of its sponsoring nations we should least have the alternative hypothesis in mind, and be considering what our "fall back" next line of defense would be if the "epidemic" is already several doublings beyond where the WHO has thus far recognized.

And/or, where we can predict it will be withing a matter of weeks to months given what we know about the nature of its spread and situations of the populations on the ground there.

If it has not already reached Mali, Senegal, Gambia, Guiniea-Bissau and Ivory Coast there is little reason to believe it does not at least have the potential to.

As captainlaser astutely asks, "at what point does one consider a quarantine?

Senegal has already closed its borders, and then opened them again after the WHO indicated the "outbreak" was contained and under control.

Airports, shipping ports, road, and railroads, would most likely be fall back positions at some point, do you not think?

Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 10:54 AM PT: Thanks to BorisGodanov for starting this White House Petition to send aid to Western African Ebola victims. Please help. - HD

Immediately Deploy Comfort and Mercy to West Africa, to Combat Ebola.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (43+ / 0-)

    Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

    by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 04:01:35 PM PDT

  •  It's even a stretch to say people have a (6+ / 0-)

    better chance of catching MERS or SARS. We're still dealing with bugs that are mutating and becoming drug resistant. And, don't get me started on the anti-vaxxers.

    •  Well There Aren't Drugs for Viruses I Think, (8+ / 0-)

      antibiotics don't affect those particular type of bugs.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 04:16:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well, I should know better than try to make jokes (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coquiero, jennyp, slowbutsure, G2geek

      about mass global deaths and pandemics.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 04:24:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that's OK, they were common in the Cold War. (5+ / 0-)

        The "bend over and kiss your ass goodbye" line became so common it got to be annoying.

        Anyway, your epidemiological & public health reporting is absolutely first-class, so no apologies needed for the gallows humor.  In fact it takes the edge off the scariness of the subject matter.

         

        We got the future back. Uh-oh.

        by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:14:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks G2geek. I need some relief valve to stay (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          myboo, 2thanks, coquiero, G2geek

          engaged in a subject this inherently grim.

          I figure the audience does too.

          What I've been reading and thinking in last couple hours looks troublesome.

          I think this "outbreak" may have jumped to a new level if I'm interpreting what Doctors Without Borders and the evidence is saying.

          I'm a little bit caught in a role conflict.

          Normally, as a strategic facilitator to help groups see the "unseen" scenarios my role, and special skill, is to spot the glimmers of "worst case" scenarios, or be able to manufacture creativity scenarios. to make sure leaders or teams do not miss something in a blind spot.

          I can see you have those same "talents" and tendencies." and I repeatedly tempted to engage some of you scenarios and and run with them.

          But, now something odd has happened since used to this a lot back 8 year or more ago, G2geek.

          I'm not sure exactly how to describe it but, if you will allow me to oversimplify for brevity, some weird part of me feels like I've accidentally become one of the unofficial Science Editors for Daily Kos and whenever I publish under the SciTech banner I feel an obligation and imagine my faculty advisers sitting in a long row as well as respectable people here like palintir, wader, counting on me to uphold a whole list of standards longer than I've even been able to read yet.

          And, that's just from the science point of view. There are all these other kinds of issues that come up, like why bring up things for people to worry about if they can't do anything about them. Just the facts, like they say on Dragnet?

          But, then we are supposed to be aspiring to be responsible journalists, or advocates or participatory grass roots democracy?

          Maybe we all should be challenging every protocol WHO or any other expert makes and asking are the fundamental human rights of the West African people being fully respected?  

          Are they being treated the way we would want to be treated by our fellow man?

          Not even close!

          Instead of spending billions to put our own people in jails for marijuana or trillions to execute wars that shouldn't even be fought we should have been fighting poverty in these countries 50 years ago, so we would be starting with  basic infrastructure such as running water, electricity, and sewers for starters.

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 08:41:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  that's really thoughtful, and all i can say is... (0+ / 0-)

            What I do when commenting about science topics, is to try to differentiated between various standards of evidence and acceptance, by labeling what I say accordingly.

            Here are some categories I find useful:

            Consensus science:  Part of "the canon" in its field, with sufficient empirical and theoretical support to be considered settled.  May include some gaps in knowledge, anomalies, apparent contradictions, and so on, but these are considered relatively minor and not invalidating the core elements.  For example Newtonian physics is consensus science even though it has limits beyond which Einsteinian relativity is needed, and Einstein has limits beyond which quantum mechanics is needed, etc.  The Standard Model in physics is considered the most well-supported theory in all of science, and the remaining anomalies are considered insufficient to overthrow it at this stage in our knowledge.

            Heterodox science or contested science:  Supported by reasonably strong empirical findings, and/or (the "or" is important in this definition) established theories, but not widely accepted, and occasionally met with scorn by those in consensus science.  This is where we find a lot of scientific debate, and very often what is heterodox today becomes part of consensus science tomorrow.  Examples include multiverse theories (though these are starting to go mainstream), "strong" artificial intelligence theories ("machine consciousness," which although promoted by some prominent individuals, is not consensus science), interactionist theories of consciousness (strictly speaking this is philosophy, David Chalmers is the main proponent), quantum computation models of the neuron (Hameroff & Penrose), psi research (remote viewing, etc.), epigenetics, and so on.  Opponents of various items in this category try to argue that it belongs in one of the other categories below.

            Fringe science:  Empirical and/or theoretical basis is much weaker, tends to be much more speculative, is not widely accepted, incurs substantial scorn by those in consensus science.  Acupuncture is an example, with some clinical studies that are positive, but are also very weak in various ways (e.g. problems with placebo controls).  Cold fusion is another example.  There is an entire "subculture," if it can be called that, of people who are promoting fringe theories in physics.  I ran into some of them years ago, and thought it would be interesting to do some kind of social science research on these people and their ideas, analogous to comparative religion where the various beliefs are compiled and analyzed for similarities and differences.

            Pseudoscience:  Similar to fringe science but empirical and/or theoretical basis is very weak or nonexistant.  Homeopathy and "energy healing" are obvious examples, creationism is another, social Darwinism is another, and various other race-based or similar ideas also.  Very often this stuff is driven by an underlying philosophy or ideology, which is often religious or political.

            Some weeks ago there was a story in DK about a new finding in physics, related to quantum entanglement, that suggested the possibility of circumventing the limit on faster-than-light (FTL) communication.  This stirred up a buzz, because after all, who wouldn't like to have FTL communication?  It would make possible realtime interaction with Mars rovers, making robotic exploration of Mars and other objects much more efficient.  When I was commenting on this, I took two sides: one, that consensus science requires treating this kind of finding with skepticism until there are replication studies; and two, when I speculated about FTL communication I labeled my speculations as "fringe science."  

            Public health gets into a few more areas of controversy, notably with regard to what degrees of speculation are warranted and how that affects policy.  In a high-impact political blog such as DK, you're right to start out by preferring to err on the side of caution.

            But keep in mind that some noted public health scientists were sounding loud alarms about avian flu 5-10 years ago.  Partially as a result of their alarm, it is now considered consensus science that there is a substantial risk of avian flu mutating in such a manner as to go H2H (human to human) transmissible via aerosols (coughing, sneezing).  And, the alarms about avian flu merged with alarms about the 1918 flu and other emerging flu risks, such that today it is understood that everyone who is not medically contraindicated, should get the yearly flu vaccine.

            More in an additional comment below.

            We got the future back. Uh-oh.

            by G2geek on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 03:52:39 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  what to do about this: (0+ / 0-)

            Heh, "all I can say is" wasn't all I could say after all.  I decided to break this up into two comments because my Mac is getting flakey and crashes often, and I didn't want to lose the preceding material.

            There are a number of policy issues related to emerging diseases, some of which get into areas of "political tribalism" but shouldn't.

            The big one is US response to outbreaks and epidemics in other countries.  This is affected by positions on global economics and trade, humanitarian aid to other countries, the appropriate uses of US military assets (hospital ships, air logistics, etc.), and possibly US military interventions (polio in Syria).  

            Another has to do with personal & community preparedness.  "Preppers" are preparedness advocates (I'm in this category), and "survivalists" are basically preppers with arsenals;-).  Very often people on the left confuse the two, and then react by advocating not taking any such measures, on the basis that doing so blunts the demand for policy-level solutions.  IMHO this is short-sighted and creates needless risk, like bicyclists not wearing helmets in order to make a statement for protected bicycle lanes.

            What I would suggest is:

            It's acceptable to speculate, as long as the speculation is labeled as such and differentiated from the consensus science.

            You don't have to only stick to quoting experts and news stories.  It's OK to make inferences of your own, though they should be labeled as such.  The very fact that science is convergent, means that a thoughtful and informed layperson often ends up coming to the same conclusions as working scientists.  I've seen this happen a number of times and I've done it myself a few times.  (We can also end up making substantial mistakes, which is one of the reasons to label our own ideas & inferences as such, so readers can differentiate and apply a higher standard of skepticism to what we say than what quoted experts say.)

            If something has a potential to produce emotional reactions such as strong support or strong opposition, or panic or complacency, it should be stated in a way that seeks to offset the emotional response.  For example one can discuss preparedness measures while reducing the risk of inciting panic, such as when I say things like "if you're in an area with natural disaster risk, you should already be doing XYZ...", this by way of contextualizing the new threat alongside threats with which people are already familiar.

            If you see indications that scientists are already "freaking out" over an issue, that's good reason to bring it up truthfully.  For example years ago climate scientists started hinting about the threat of human extinction due to climate change, but there wasn't much reporting on this in lay press and media because it would have sounded "alarmist."  But now that topic is on the table and people are dealing with it.  The risks of emerging diseases are like that: at some point we will see new Big Ones, and we will have to deal with them.  Forewarned is forearmed.

            Any time a serious threat is on the table but society ducks the bullet, there is a risk of complacency.  For example "the Y2K bug" is considered "a joke," but the reality is that we ducked that bullet by pouring an enormous amount of programming talent into rewriting obsolete code.  The fact is that we successfully averted something that could have caused major economic impacts and inconvenience, and the reality-based attitude toward that should be that it was a successful intervention.  Instead, paradoxically, the success at beating the Y2K bug has become a source of complacency about other potential threats.

            If anything, I think it's worthwhile to err on the side of the kind of caution that is willing to discuss risks frankly rather than downplay them.  People who are informed can choose what to do about the information.  People who are uninformed can't.  We should regard our peers as adults who can read and think and make decisions, rather than hold back information because it might upset someone.

            I get the impression that MSF pulled out, not only for the reasons they discussed, but also because they concluded this is going to get so much worse that their further efforts were futile and they should not put their own people at further risk.  I also get the impression that various scientists studying this have come to similar conclusions but aren't saying so in overt language to the media.  

            If that's the case, then there are additional degrees of risk that should be discussed here, in order to mobilize the political and other responses that could potentially mitigate the severity of it.

            We got the future back. Uh-oh.

            by G2geek on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 04:36:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for this and the reminder (12+ / 0-)

    to support those on the front line, like Doctors Without Borders and all the others.

  •  I served in Liberia, West Africa in the (7+ / 0-)

    United States Peace Corps in 1964-1967, I intend to pursue this issue for the sake of the good people of Saclepea, Liberia whose children I taught in grade school and whom I came to love.  Ebola will not kill.

    •  Thanks Boston Beans. You can consider me an (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coquiero

      ally. Let me know how I can back you up an assist in any way.

      I've not been to Liberia but I have been to Ivory Coast, and Nigeria many times and feel connected to Western African and supportive of as well.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:21:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I get the distinct sense that WHO and MSF (7+ / 0-)

    are at odds here.

    I think MSF is trying to sound the alarm at what they're seeing, hoping it will force WHO's hand to rally some international support for this crisis.

    I blog about my daughter with autism at her website

    by coquiero on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 04:30:50 PM PDT

    •  Agreed. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coquiero, ER Doc, ladybug53, G2geek

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 05:45:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  WHO is stuck in a hard place, dealing with... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, 2thanks, bear83, coquiero

      .... governments that don't want alarms raised because they could harm local economies, or in some cases make vain petty strongmen "look bad."  Even where these factors are not in play, WHO have to be careful about saying things that may make them unwelcome in some future scenario or in the middle of an emergency.

      MSF is wholly private and not subject to those pressures to the same degree.

      We got the future back. Uh-oh.

      by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:18:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  If you've seen the movie Contagion, you have a ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        coquiero, HoundDog

        If you've seen the movie Contagion, you have a sense of how quickly a contagious disease can become an international political football.

        •  Yes, many painful economic, social, and political (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          the fan man

          realities become manifest immediately and the are real and and consequential, so we cannot dismiss them as mere "politics." People, and family can face economic ruin and starvation if certain regions are quarantined for wrong, or even correct reasons.

          Sometimes quarantines may be imposed for correct reasons, however due to capacity constraints inadequate food and medical supplies may mean affected populations starve or suffer.

          Populations may legitimately fear consequences of being labels as a suspected case and hide for good reason, making containment more difficult.

          Many "no win" situations arise, with complex ethical ambiguities for which there are no satisfactory answers.

          Much tragic human suffering will occur even in the best of all possible cases.

          Tragically, we will no even come close to achieving the best possible case, but may possibly eventually arrive at a  marginally adequate of all possible solution after skirting up against sheer unmitigated, and unnecessary disaster.

          Absolutely heartbreaking.

          And, even though it will appear as if the suffering is occurring in Western Africa harm is occurring to all of us.

          I can feel it in my own heart even as I type this comment to you the fan man.

          The immense pain so many lost souls wailing in grief as they watch helplessly as their loved one die - their beloved children, mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters, and knowing the diseases will spread, causes such a searing pain in my own heart, that I can feel my own emotional circuit breakers kicking in.

          Do you know what I am describing? The numbing safety blocks that block out the pain - that cut us off from our fellow humans - that say,

          this is not my son.

          This is not my mother

          Wait, do not let this grief choke my throat so I can not breath.

          Do not legt me fall to me knees in despair.

          I do not know these people.

          Clear these tear from my eyes so I can keep typing,

          for that child is not my daughter,

          Her screams to not paralyze me

          in agony

          freezing in my tracks.

          I need not even look.

          I can change the channel.

          I must change the channel

          and look away.

          For I have tasks to accomplish,

          things to do.

          Oh, look the hour is late,

          I must go,

          Put up that emotional wall,

          Too bad for those people.

          I really hope it turn out ok for them.

          I can feel sense his happening to me the fan man, even just as I've written this comment to you my soul has become smaller, my heart has become hardened by a protective shell.

          A protective shell that unintentionally becomes schlerotic. Tomorrow, I will not remember why I feel more numb to life, and less able to feel connected to my fellow beings.

          I do not have any ritual moments, or anyone in my life who regularly helps me take off these protective shells to become a whole fulling loving and caring person again.

          I do not think I am the only one.

          This is how I explain to myself how we also start off as loving children who at some point become so hardened that we can step over homeless people in the winter in the big cities to get to work on time.

          Maybe all of us have a little bit of Paul Ryan's austerity social safety net cutting capacity inside us someplace. I think he is just a heartless bastard sociopath con man without human feelings but some of his tea party and Republican followers were probably good people, who really were good Christians at one point and just kept sliding down some slippery slope similar to the one we are on when we look away from this kind of human suffering to watch reruns Gilligan's Island for relief.

          And, why we hold a revered counter examples saintly models of compassion stories of Jesus healing the Lepers, and stories of the compassion of Mother Therassa, Buddha, Mohammed and other religious figures with reverence.  

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 11:29:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Just look at consequences of AIDS on Haitians (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            and homosexuals for a quick course in politics and disease.

            I don't know if you've seen the movie, but it accurately demonstrates the effects of quarantine you describe. And as a side note, quarantines are notoriously porous and always instituted too late to do much good. I don't know what positive impact it would have on a fairly slow moving disease like ebola.

            Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree. -Martin Luther

            by the fan man on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 12:47:43 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  No doubt about it. From nearly the first week when (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      coquiero

      they argued about whether it should be called an epidemic or outbreak.

      WHO insisted this was only an outbreak, but MSF has accused them of downplaying the severity of the situation all along.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:22:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  And when do you start considering quarantine? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jennyp, slowbutsure, HoundDog, G2geek

    We will never be free from fear as long as we fear the NRA.

    by captainlaser on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 04:33:22 PM PDT

    •  The WHO makes that call in coordination with (8+ / 0-)

      the local governments, however, you can imagine the enormous political and financial pressures and considerations.

      One also has to consider the issue of capacity. Right now there are not even enough resources to send small teams to new outbreak areas.

      Enforcing perimeter borders would is probably not even possible given current internal resources.

      Then one would have to think of the well being of the people on the inside of the perimeters. Will you just let them starve to death?

      Their survival depends on trade, hunting, movement, gathers water.

      Some people have to travel miles to just get water. No running water, or sewers even in the urban areas of some parts of the capital city of Conakry.

      So, let's ask ourselves captainlaser.

      When do we start considering quarantine?

      Notice if we do not ask ourselves that question, we are leaving it the experts. And, when you see what happens when a citizen of our current social system does that you may never wish to do so again.

      However, notice also, we have only a finite capacity for paying attention to, and processing such issues, so we default on most of them without realizing it. Just as we have defaulted on making this decision for ourselves to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA. if this eventuality should occur to us.

      Let's look more closely at what happened because I think we will find that officials from the World Health Organization start thinking of from the first moments, if the the standard way of responding to Ebola outbreaks has been to quarantine, and then let the virus burn itself out.

      The WHO will face allegations that they have misrepresented to the world what was going on, likely due to political pressures, and has downplayed the magnitude of this outbreak from the very first month when the argued with Doctors Without Borders whether or not this is an "outbreak" or an "epidemic."

      Before this is over I believe we will see a major scandal here.

      But, part of it is that both WHO and MSF has been overwhelmed because of the multiple origins of outbreak.

      So now than there is no "perimeter of containment" this is truly "out of control," on our own CDC and others may have no choice but to now falling back to the next level of controllable borders which are the airport, shipping ports, roads, railroads, at the international airports, which are already on alert, looking for anyone with fevers.

      Airports now have scanners which read people's body temperature so anyone with a fever is taken to a special areas for "special attention."

      Neighboring countries will probably close borders soon.

      Saudi Arabia already cancel visas for Western African hajj pilgrims two months ago.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 06:12:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  really well-said. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog, myboo, bear83, coquiero

        It's easy for us to say "quarantine" when we aren't aware of local conditions such as "no water or sanitation."  

        The sheer logistical nightmare of enforcing a perimeter in an area where people are migratory, also leads to scenarios involving the use of force to stop infected people who try to escape, and that produces further backlash against public health efforts.

        And, the larger the perimeter, the more personnel needed, and the more supplies needed for people inside.

        The world could prepare for these things by collecting substantial bodies of intelligence about local conditions: water & sanitation, food supply & local dietary preferences, culture and language and religious customs, etc.  Ideal case would be a rapid-deployment force that could a) cordon off an area but let returning residents (from before the quarantine) back in, b) bring in water, toilets, and locally-acceptable foods, and so on, and then d) embark on public works projects to provide permanent water & sanitation where needed, hiring and paying well the local workers to build them.  At the same time e) build schoolhouses, train teachers, and provide educational materials in local languages, and f) take other steps related to cultural issues such as contact with bodies, to address the non-negotiable necessities of disease control.

        That would become a "carrot" rather than a "stick," and potentially offset some of the public reluctance to report diseases in certain areas.  It would balance the necessities of modernization in a world of emerging diseases that could become true existential threats to entire societies, with the moral necessities of respect for local cultures and traditions.

        It would require giving an international corps of scientists the full authority needed to take these steps and command the resources needed to carry them out.  That aspect, in and of itself, would be revolutionary.

        We got the future back. Uh-oh.

        by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:33:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  These are interesting idea G2geek. You are talking (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bear83, coquiero, G2geek

          about nation building.

          Which could be a high leverage point for effecting global change and improvement.

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 08:44:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Horrifying (8+ / 0-)

    Ebola is a horrific disease. It often burns out fast just because it is so deadly. I hope they get it under control quickly.

    •  This does not look likely pat of butter. (7+ / 0-)

      It's going to get worse before getting better.

      My guess at the moment, just sitting here at 9:14 p.m. June 27, after just getting back from errands but thinking about what I've been reading here between two other posts, and lots of distractions, it that this epidemic, let's be honest, will likely get substantially worse, before they get it under control and that will not come quickly.

      If the Director of Operations of Doctors Without Borders is saying there are epicenters of outbreak that they can not even send teams to now because they do not have teams to send then we will most likely be looking at unconstrained exponential growth, during the next few weeks to months.

      I haven't heard, or calculated what the double time has been so far, my guess is it is approximately a month. So we could have as many as 300 to 600 new cases in the the next month. Depending on the nature of the contagion vectors potentially even substantially more than that.

      Let's hope not, but it does not look good.  

       

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 06:23:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FIL worked for the CDC on vaccines and (4+ / 0-)

    viruses.  One good thing that happened from 911 was increased funding so they could maybe prevent the next 1914 flu epidemic.

    relax, you are far more likely to die from MERS, SARS, or a mutation of the avian flu to a form that can be spread by airborne form, which biologist tell us is only a matter of time.

    ...Son, those Elephants always look out for themselves. If you happen to get a crumb or two from their policies, it's a complete coincidence. -Malharden's Dad

    by slowbutsure on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 05:15:30 PM PDT

  •  this could be the long-predicted breakthrough (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, SadieSue, lotlizard, G2geek

    of Ebola into the human race.

    Emerging viruses cause small, limited outbreaks at first. Then they may manage to establish themselves as a human pathogen: by becoming better adapted to spread and live in humans, and sustain larger outbreaks.

    Often, viruses become less virulent as they adapt to a new host. Or they may quickly kill off large numbers of hosts and leave only the immune. It's not clear at all which path Ebola will take.

    This is a very fluid situation, and will require very careful monitoring and control efforts.

    "In America, the law is king." --Thomas Paine

    by limpidglass on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 05:20:58 PM PDT

    •  You make good point limpidglass. I guess I should (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      G2geek

      probably retract that statement.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 06:25:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  in which case are you saying it could... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      ... go global?  And if so, what would be the time frame and what should we be looking out for?

      The prospect of a CFR in the 5 - 10% range sounds downright humane for Ebola, but even those numbers end up with unimaginable cruelty on the scale of a global pandemic.

      When something like this is starting to occur or at risk of occurring, it's a smart idea for everyone to review their personal & community preparedness plans, and fix any obvious gaps.  

      We got the future back. Uh-oh.

      by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:40:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The AIDS virus also started in Africa... (7+ / 0-)

    ...and eventually it got to the US and the rest of the world.

    For this to happen, someone with some degree of immunity but carrying the virus has to travel across the Atlantic to North, Central or South America.  Then all bets are off.  I give it 4 years but it may get to Europe first.  Just speculating.

    Or maybe a terrorist will bring it.

    The transmission is not difficult;

    Ebola then spreads in the community through human-to-human transmission, with infection resulting from direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and indirect contact with environments contaminated with such fluids. Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola. Men who have recovered from the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to 7 weeks after recovery from illness.

    Health-care workers have frequently been infected while treating patients with suspected or confirmed EVD. This has occurred through close contact with patients when infection control precautions are not strictly practiced.

    Among workers in contact with monkeys or pigs infected with Reston ebolavirus, several infections have been documented in people who were clinically asymptomatic.

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 05:36:45 PM PDT

    •  You make a good point. I was not considering the (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ladybug53, G2geek, Shockwave, bear83

      possibility of an intentional terrorists targeting, Shockwave.

      Let me retract, my statement. I was mostly trying just to be vaguely responsible and reassuring as a cover for making some gallows humor for Friday night.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 06:29:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I know many on here do not care (6+ / 0-)

        For Former Senator Sam Nunn but I have a world of respect for him and his knowledge on Biological WMD's such as Smallpox,, etc.   He serves  at the pleasure of this president,  I cannot imagine a better person on the job  in the know on finfectious diseases or outbreaks on a mass scale.

        Just how much Koch do Right Wingers want in their life? . United Veterans of America

        by Vetwife on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 06:49:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks for sharing this Vetwife. I'm familiar (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Shockwave, Vetwife

          with some of former Senator's Sam Nunn''s work and have enormous respect for him, his intelligence, and knowledge of military matters.

          He comes from the same tradition of proud honorable service as my father did as highly dediicated, competent, and intelligent pilot and Naval Officer (not the bottom of the class John McCain model).

          If you know him, please let him, thanks for his service, and also please let him know I am always happy to help out any way I can in the service of our country, if I can ever be helpful.

          Thanks vetwife.

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:11:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I have corresponded with Former Sen Nunn (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            since 1993.  I have met him only once and that was through Sen. Cleland.  I have followed much of his outreach on bio  warfare and his daughter Michelle will be terrific in the senate.

            Here is some info on Sen. Nun's work .
            Thanks for this most umportant diary.

            Just how much Koch do Right Wingers want in their life? . United Veterans of America

            by Vetwife on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 04:40:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Thank you Vetwife. I also support his daughter (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Vetwife

              Michelle who I know will be great continuing the family tradition in the Senate.

              Thanks for giving an idea for a post for today. I was looking for ideas to write about.

              Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

              by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 11:33:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  very interesting. i had no idea he was... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoundDog, Shockwave, Vetwife

          ... a subject matter expert on biowarfare & bioterrorism.

          I'll keep an eye open for whatever he might have to say about these issues.

          We got the future back. Uh-oh.

          by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:47:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  i've been yelling about this scenario for years. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog, Shockwave, bear83

      Suicide terrorist goes to ebola hot zone, deliberately infects himself, takes a flight to target country, makes extensive use of urban public transport to have close contact with crowds.

      Then, in a US scenario, eventually ends up in hospital when too sick to walk, and picks up bedside phone to call a radio talk show and announce what he did.

      As additional cases begin to come in, general public goes into a general panic.  Total of additional cases is probably less than 1,000 including secondary spread, but none the less has a deep psychological impact on the culture (as 9/11 did), and also causes serious economic damage lasting more than a year.

      We got the future back. Uh-oh.

      by G2geek on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 07:46:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think there is enough resources there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog

    to do much.

    I'm not sure the EU or UN will have resources either.

  •  Mondavia? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog
    •  Monrovia. Sheesh I said the same thing yesterday (0+ / 0-)

      Where did I say it this time?

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 08:47:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Tags. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        HoundDog
        •  Thanks aoeu. I wasn't able to find it. (0+ / 0-)

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:24:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Fixed. Somewhere among the trillions of neural (0+ / 0-)

          connections in the remote corners of my mind I had Monrovia and Moldavia crossed.

          But, as one good side effect of this embarrassing tag episode is that in the process of trying to find what you were talking about after seeing I had correctly called it Monrovia in the post I looked it up in Wikipedia and discovered that Liberia was an American colony and that Monrovia was named after Jame Monroe.

          So I will never make this error again.

          So on old dog (57) can learn new tricks. Ha!  

          And, add neurons to my brain. The brain is more plastic than previously thought.  All these new memories are stored in neural connections and I am making new one every day, Even more than a lot of younger people, IMO.

          You are sort of an enigma to me aoeu. You show up frequently in my posts, often helpfully pointing out errors in tags, which I always immediately correct, however, you never seem to rec or tip my posts or comments despite me doing everything I can to try to please you.

          I not complaining just curious to know if there is some standard of excellence I have not achieved yet, that if I did you would rec.

          Since tags seem to be your special interest as far as I can tell may I share a few thoughts?  

          From my point of view, on average, I have more tags, a greater variety of tags, a greater number of scientific tags than most other authors here. I've also hazard a guess that I may have created more unique original tags than anyone else here.

          I know this may sound immodest, but is really more a result of being intimidated, in part by you. (And, I mean this in the nicest possible way. I am striving to improve my writing and appreciate all feedback, not matter how demanding it may be.)  

          So what would I have to do to earn a rec from you? If it is not possible for some reason that's ok. But you just make me curious.

          I guess my goat my be up just a little because I've been writing more lately trying to develop my skills as a writer hoping to develop a second career. This has exposed me to a lot of extra feedback some of which may be getting to me a little.

          One reason I'm extra "jumpy" about this "Moldavia" tag is that in my Wednesday post on Ebola which had several hundred comments, to which I try read an respond to all that require a response,  even if it is just a tip, in one long response that was twice as long as the post and chock full of data I wrote Moldavia instead of Monrovia as the capital of Liberia even though I know that.

          It is one of the risks of speed typing which is the only way one can get through a full day of another job, also doing 4 to 8 posts here and then responding to up to several hundred comments in each often doing my best to offer up significant amounts of data off the top of my head.

          This puts me at risk of error, which a lot of authors will not take such a risk and many do not respond to any comments, and if they do, give perfunctory or safe, short responses.

          My goals are different. But, I do sometimes make errors, and one would predict statistically would do so at a higher rate, but listen carefully to a generous an helpful base of readers who provide feedback which I then immediately correct in the style of a strategic workshop facilitator, or case studies professor which have some of my professional corporate and academic roles.

          Another odd aspect of my memory structure is my mind remembers and plays back all conversations, posts, and comments, pretty much continuously, while I'm doing other things so while I was in a grocery store yesterday, I suddenly jolted as if struck by lighting, felt sick to my stomach, realizing what I had done.

          Without going into to a sad and long life story of why my brain would still be continuously scanning  all my social transactions a day latter, for  such a humiliating failure, and I would have developed such an overcompensated set of memory circuits such that I could remember word, in every comment out of over a hundred the previous day, in while grocery shopping, let me just say, I interrupted my afternoon scheduled, rushed home, happily discovered no one had yet noticed, and issued a correction to that comment in Wednesday's post about Ebola, saying that that the proper capital of Liberia was Monrovia not Mondavia.

          My guess is what happened is that I did not check the tags, and because, you've busted my chops before about not having a sufficient number of tags, I now make a second pass on any post that gets more than 5 recs and put in at 6 to 12 tags and unwittingly must have copied the Mondovia tag from the previous post to this one when doing the second pass of tag bolstering.

          So last night when I saw your first comment but then saw that it was correct in the post, I grew concerned that you had seen my incorrect Mondavia comment, before I made the correction, and now thought Mondavia was the capital of Liberia and the meaning of your first comment here "Mondavia?" was intended to correct what you thought was an errant "Monrovia" in my post.

          I thought "oh shit, thank god I'm anonymous here. I can just quit and no one needs to know who I really am."

          But, also, I thought this writing stuff is too stressful for me. I'm never going to make it. I better apologize to Chris Christie and ask if he has any openings on his staff, due to the upcoming indictments. (humor alert.)

          The only upside, is I'm greatly encouraged to think that in just these last three days, my brain has apparently hard wired in at least 3 to 5 new neurons, or neural connections that enable me to remember that Monrovia is the capital of Liberia and I better double check tags because aoeu is going to be checking each and every one.

          I just wish I knew why. Hey, are you by any chance one Daily Kos' official undercover tag police? That would be cool. I've been here just under 10 years and haven't really met that many of the "The Management" which seems odd.

          Anyhow, I do appreciate the helpful feedback aoeu. If there is some higher standard of tagging methodology we all could be aspiring too please let me know.

          Cheers.  

           

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 12:36:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Upper case new tags. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoundDog

            I follow the best, the worst, and the ugly.

            If you check you will find I tip and rec rarely.

            Hey, are you by any chance one Daily Kos' official undercover tag police?
            Not undercover and not admin. I am a Tag Librarian. No actual clout.
            •  But, an official Daily Kos tag librarian? Sorry, I (0+ / 0-)

              didn't mean any disrespect by saying tag police, I should have been more thoughtful.

              Sometimes effective empathy = emotional capacity/how fast one tries to move.

              One character flaw I have is I have have a need to move fast, to stay engaged. If I'm forced to slow down, I tend to drop out.

              So, are you saying new tags should be upper case? Should not be upper case?

              I've seen people use all upper case tags which I never do.

              I tend to make he first letter upper case, just cause it seems to look neater.

              If you tell me what the preferred rules are, I'll follow them consistently aoeu. I greatly prefer knowing the preferred rules and following them religiously, to having to think about how to do things each time.

              Even without knowing you were an official tag librarian have I not followed your every suggestion for revision?

              For some very odd reason, and there must be a reason, but I can not figure it out, my ex-wife and all but one of my long-term relationships have been with women with clinically diagnosed cases of obsessive compulsive disorder.

              So it didn't seem curious to me until a few months ago that  all of your comments to me related to my tags.

              The issue of whether or not non proper noun tags should be capitalized or not has been troubling me lately.

              I realize that with a little bit of research I can figure this out on my own, which has been on my list of things to do. But, at that level, that particular list has about 2,000 items on it. I try to do several ever day, under the principle of Abraham Lincoln's "sharpening the saw" principle which is also one of Stephen Covey's Seven Habit of Highly Effective People.

              I'm going to assume now that based on logic you are saying that non-proper nouns should not be capitalized, but once they are properly entered, your system auto-corrects.

              But, on first entry, if they are capitalized the system thinks it is a proper noun.

              Yes, I would be guilty of that, sorry. Please let me know of any other way I can be more helpful.

              Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

              by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 03:34:18 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Previously used tags (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                HoundDog

                are beyond the control, case wise, of diarists. Tag Librarians can fix them one at a time. libya bugged the crud out of me. I fixed it first thing when I was able. Check the oook tag for details.

                New tags land in the tag database as they were first used. Rare diarists aren't worth bothering. Profligate posters should be good at tagging.

                If you've seen it before it does not matter. bARRACK oBAMMA will be Barack Obama.

                For casing I consider New York Times Headlines.

                I also consider the enWiki.

                If you find a tag you don't like send me a pm.

                •  Thanks. I'll try to be good. I'm glad to finally (0+ / 0-)

                  know who you are. Thanks for chatting with me

                  I'll keep an eye out for any of those profligate posters and let them know if I should run into any.

                  Cheers.

                  Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

                  by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 08:35:55 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Is there a Plan for Global Air Shutdown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, 2thanks

    in the event of an event like this? Have governments been able to sign off on a plan to slow the spread of a deadly pathogen by halting all air traffic? Would we know? Is is a secret?

    The oligarchs will NOT like it, but.. hey, that is one more good reason to do it.

    I mean, really. There must be a plan. This is not an "if" this is a "When."

    Figures don't lie, but liars do figure-Mark Twain

    by OregonOak on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 08:43:47 PM PDT

    •  Yes, there are contingency plans for these kinds (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      OregonOak, coquiero

      of scenarios.

      We know about some of them, some of them we do not know about out.

      In our own country our CDC, and FEMA has contingency plans.

      In an absolute worst case, my understanding is that FEMA was originally set up to be the management system to take over in a post nuclear war martial law scenario.

      When the possibility of bio-terrorism and other scenarios came up, that were added in under this same framework.

      Recently, a First Responders exercise was conducted in California against Zombies, which the media thought was funny.

      Oddly, no one asked why they would hire actor to play zombies in such a scenario.

      But if you imagine contagion outbreak scenario in a big city with containment perimeters and having to possible shoot people trying to get across, that is less upsetting to do with zombies than the neighbor kids.

      Airports already have special areas to take anyone showing fevers for extra attention. Infrared scanners can detect peoples temperatures as they come off plans, or in custom lines.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:06:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A Plan? I Think It Is Looking Bewildered (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HoundDog

      and puzzled, lifting index finger to chin dimple and repeating the proverbial

      "Who could have known?"

      "I think that gay marriage is something that should be between a man and a woman.” - Arnold Schwarzenegger 2003

      by kerplunk on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:39:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What are the epidemiological variables (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoundDog, coquiero

    that are making this outbreak so much worse than ones in the past?

    Light is seen through a small hole.

    by houyhnhnm on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 08:52:51 PM PDT

    •  Greater mobility of transportation, and according (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, houyhnhnm, coquiero

      to MSF up to 60 epicenters of origin including urban areas.

      In prior "outbreaks" in Central Afriica in rural villages that were identified early surrounded, villagers educated, all contacts traced, it was just a matter of then letting the virus burn itself out.

      2 to 21 days from infection to symptoms, usually 2 to 6 days after that to death.

      After two cycles without new cases (42 days) plus a few for margin of error, they declared it over.

      In this case, also villagers attacked MSF health centers to take their relative out thinking they were being exposed to the virus in Warehouse I where anyone with symptoms is taken.

      So health workers had to flee and two dead bodies were taken away, obviously spreading the virus.

      More distrust of health workers, WHO and government, less containment, more mobility, possibly also multiple cases of animal to human transmission although this is controversial.

      It looks to me as it the virus may be more widespread in the host bat population as well as infected game populations, however, this is not my field and I am not a doctor, I'm just speaking as a HoundDog that like to "sniff out clues."

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Fri Jun 27, 2014 at 09:17:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is what's so scary (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        coquiero, HoundDog
        2 to 21 days from infection to symptoms, usually 2 to 6 days after that to death.
        With no quarantine, someone could get infected today - either accidentally or intentionally - and be in Times Square on Monday, before showing any symptoms.

        Election Day is Nov 4th, 2014 It's time for the Undo button on the 2010 Election.

        by bear83 on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 06:19:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, this is true. (0+ / 0-)

          Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

          by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 12:37:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  What worries me is that there are direct flights (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coquiero, HoundDog

    From these countries to JFK and it could be brought or is already here.

    •  Yes. My understanding is that our airports have (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      catlover40

      infrared scanners looking for anyone with fevers on inbound flights, however, it is a risk.

      On the plus side, in our country we have the resources to do immediate contact tracing so could probably shut down the spread before it got too far.

      At least, that's what the experts are saying catlover40.

      I feel a little caught in a bind.

      One the one hand, I love to speculate in sci fi scenarios.

      On the other hand, I feel like as one of the Science editors of Sci Tech I need to be responsible and report what the Science Experts are saying, which is "don't panic."

      I hate it when this happens.

      Humor Alert! No statement from this UID is intended to be true, including this one. Intended for recreational purposes only. Unauthorized interpretations may lead to unexpected results. This waiver void where prohibited. Artistic License - 420420

      by HoundDog on Sat Jun 28, 2014 at 12:42:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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