Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
7:49 AM PT (Jeff Singer): President-by-LD: Stephen Wolf brings us interactive maps of Maine and Nebraska visualizing the results of the 2012 presidential election by state legislative district. You can find his previous maps here.
Many states have become very polarized, voting almost exclusively for one party for president and for state legislature. However, there are still plenty of crossover voters left in Maine and Nebraska. In the Pine Tree State plenty of Republican hail from Obama seats; in Nebraska Team Blue has been able to hold some very rural red seats.
9:13 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-Gov: On behalf of the Democratic Governor's Association, Global Strategy Group surveyed the Illinois' gubernatorial race and they found something no one's found in a very long time: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is in the lead. GSG gives Quinn a small 43-40 edge over Republican businessman Bruce Rauner, with Libertarian Chad Grimm taking 5. No cross-tabs were provided here. The only other time Quinn led Rauner in a publicly released poll was in November of 2013. Since then Quinn has trailed by as much as double digits: Even Democratic pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang and the Mellman Group have shown Quinn trailing by a small amount.
Quinn's campaign has relentlessly been portraying Rauner as heartless plutocrat, and Rauner has provided the Democrats with plenty of ammunition. In August, news broke that Rauner had his company stash funds in the Cayman Islands to avoid American taxes. In the last week we've also learned that not long ago, Rauner wanted to eliminate the state minimum wage. The fact that Rauner once paid $100,000 to join a wine club did not exactly help his image either.
We took a look at GSG's track record. Here are their 2010 polls: We've included the last poll they released for any race from October on.
• HI-01: Global Strategy Group: Hanabusa (D) 48-44; actual: Hanabusa (D) 50-44; error +2 R
• IA-Gov: Global Strategy Group: Branstad (R) 46-40; actual: Branstad (R) 53-43; error +4 D
• WV-Sen: Global Strategy Group: Manchin (D) 48-43; actual: Manchin (D); 53-43; error +5 R
And here is 2012:
• CA-09: Global Strategy Group: McNerney (D) 47-38; actual: McNerney (D) 56-44; +3 R
• FL-10: Global Strategy Group: Webster (R) 43-41; actual: Webster (R) 52-48; +2 D
• IN-Sen: Global Strategy Group: Donnelly (D) 43-36; actual: Donnelly (D) 50-44; +1 D
• MN-08: Global Strategy Group: Cravaack (R) 42-42; actual: Nolan (D) 54-46; +8 R
• NH-01: Global Strategy Group: Shea-Porter (D) 46-43; actual: Shea-Porter (D) 50-46; +1 R
• NY-18: Global Strategy Group: Hayworth (R) 44-42; actual: Maloney (D) 52-48; +6 R
• NY-21: Global Strategy Group: Owens (D) 47-40; actual: Owens (D) 50-48; +5 D
• UT-04: Global Strategy Group: Matheson (D) 48-41; actual: Matheson (D) 49-49; +7 D
Between the two cycles, GSG's average error was 0.5 percent in the Republican's direction. They underestimated the winner's margin by an average of 4 points. Overall, an incredibly good record.
This is just one poll, and we'll need to see more before we can start to conclude that the tide is turning. Internal polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, and it's always good to be cautious when one poll shows an unusual result. Quinn is still unpopular and Republicans can very well win here. Still, Quinn's team can't be complaining about this survey.
10:29 AM PT: NC-Sen: Rasmussen: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 45, Thom Tillis (R): 39 (Aug.: 45-40 Tillis).
10:52 AM PT: NH-Sen: A new Global Strategy Group poll conducted for Larry Lessig's Mayday PAC finds Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leading Republican Scott Brown 48-41. That's very similar to a new DSCC poll that put Shaheen up 8 and is basically right where the polling average stands. (As for Mayday, you'll recall that they wasted a bunch of money trying to help Jim Rubens in the GOP primary, but evidently, they're still unhappy with Brown. The obvious move would have been to spend that cash on Shaheen instead.)
11:02 AM PT: YouGov: YouGov has finally released the gubernatorial numbers it collected as part of its nationwide poll for the New York Times and CBS, so go nuts. In a very weird move, though, YouGov didn't publish anything for the Kansas governor's race, citing "candidate changes." Did they actually mean to withhold their Kansas Senate data (which they did actually release)? Or were they just unhappy with the results they got?
YouGov evidently did provide some information to the Times, which didn't print the actual toplines but noted that Republican Gov. Sam Brown "is in the lead." But we know isn't the case because Brownback's own internal had him up just 1 point. Last time, YouGov had Brownback up an impossible 14 points, so something is amiss here.
11:18 AM PT: NE-Gov: It's déjà vu all over again—in reverse. Another Republican secretary of state has just decided to twist the law in order to benefit a fellow party member, only this time, Nebraska's John Gale is allowing someone to get off the ballot who shouldn't be able to, rather than forcing someone to stay on who shouldn't have to. Gale has decided to let Mike Foley appear as Republican Pete Ricketts' running mate in place of Lavon Heidemann, who resigned as lieutenant governor (and quit the GOP ticket) earlier this week.
But a state statute says that gubernatorial candidates must select their partners by Sept. 1, and we're well past that deadline. Gale claims that the state constitution somehow overrides the law, but what's the limit to that kind of interpretation? What if Heidemann dropped out Nov. 1—could he still be replaced then? What's more, as Democrat Chuck Hassebrook points out, Ricketts knew of Heidemann's legal troubles weeks ago (a judge just awarded a restraining order against him after he became violent with his sister), so he had no excuse for waiting.
Hassebrook nevertheless says he won't challenge the ruling, but he may just want to stay out of the fray. The state Democratic Party, whose chair said that Gale's decision "blatantly ignores the law," may yet go to court.
11:26 AM PT: PA-Gov: Heh. The headline on Quinnipiac's press release describing its new poll of Pennsylvania pretty much sums it up: "Wolf Devours Corbett." Democrat Tom Wolf has a monster 59-35 lead on Republican Gov. Tom Corbett, which is pretty much what everyone else is showing. This is Quinnipiac's first likely voter poll and their first survey since May, but even so, things haven't really changed: Back then, Wolf still led 53-33. Time for some Duran Duran.
11:49 AM PT: KY-Sen: A new Magellan Strategies poll for the National Mining Association finds Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell with a 50-42 lead on Democrat Alison Grimes (with Libertarian David Paterson at 6), representing an implausibly huge swing since Magellan's last poll in June. Back then, Magellan had Grimes ahead 49-46; while her standing has slipped overall since then, 11 points is a bit hard to swallow.
What's more, the NMA asked a bunch of questions about whether Kentuckians approve of the EPA's plans to reduce carbon emissions. Surprise! They hate 'em, but those numbers have scarcely shifted since June. And while we don't have the actual question order, Magellan's memo discusses the EPA before getting to the Senate race, so if the EPA came first on the survey instrument, that's obviously only going to hurt Grimes.
12:02 PM PT: MI-Sen, Gov: The brutal polls keep coming for Terri Lynn Land—and the numbers don't look very good for Rick Snyder, either. A new Suffolk poll finds Land down 46-37 to Democrat Gary Peters, the same week that Glengariff had Peters up 10 and PPP had him up 7. Pretty brutal, but it explains why the AP recently called Land's campaign a "salvage operation."
Snyder's situation isn't quite as dire, but I'm not sure I'd want to be him either. Suffolk has Democrat Mark Schauer leading Snyder 44-42, while Glengariff and PPP also showed a tight race, with Snyder ahead just 1 to 2 points. Schauer's blue line just keeps creeping closer.
1:03 PM PT: FL-Gov: A conservative business group called the Associated Industries of Florida has released a new poll, apparently conducted in-house by their own political arm, showing GOP Gov. Rick Scott up 43-40 on Democrat Charlie Crist, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 5. Previously unreleased trendlines from May had the race tied at 41, but these guys have a dog in this fight: AIF has endorsed Scott and repeated that fact over and over.
1:30 PM PT: CO-Sen: A new SurveyUSA poll, their first of Colorado this cycle, finds Democratic Sen. Mark Udall with a 46-42 advantage on Republican Cory Gardner. That's now half-a-dozen surveys in a row showing Udall with an edge (though that includes two from YouGov and one from Rasmussen), but you have to go back to mid-July to find Gardner leading.
1:34 PM PT: IA-Sen: Hmm. This PPP Iowa poll conducted for Americans for Tax Fairness is a couple of weeks old, but somehow it only surfaced just now (thanks to the diligent folks at Huffington Post Pollster). The survey finds Republican Joni Ernst up 45-43 on Democrat Bruce Braley, but an in-house PPP poll that was in the field just a few days before had Braley up 41-40. Not much difference in terms of the margin—the movement is likely just noise—though it confirms that the race is close.
1:48 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor has two new spots (here and here). The first has Pryor talking about keeping jobs in the state. The second ad links Republican Rep. Tom Cotton to the Koch brothers. The commercial describes how the Kochs closed a plant, taking away 400 jobs: The narrator then accuses the Kochs of trying to buy the Senate seat for Cotton.
Speaking of the Koch political empire, we have the size-of-the-buy for a recent Freedom Partners spot against Pryor: $315,000.
• AK-Sen: The National Education Association recently attacked Republican Dan Sullivan for selling out state educators, and the ad was not cheap. The size-of-the-buy was for $728,000.
• CO-Sen: The National Federation of Independent Business splurges $114,000 for Republican Rep. Cory Gardner.
• GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn runs on her support for the Keystone Pipeline. Other Democrats have favorably mentioned Keystone in their ads, but this is the first spot from Team Blue I can remember that's entirely about the project.
• IA-Sen: American Crossroads continues to attack Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley for missing Veteran's Committee meetings, while attacking him on his votes for Cap and Trade and Obamacare.
We also have the size of the buys for two other recent conservative ads here. Freedom Partners ad also hitting Braley on veteran's issues: ran for $405,000. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spot praising Republican Joni Ernst on agriculture was for $458,000.
• LA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu pushes back on a recent spot from Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy portraying her as weak on border security. Landrieu's spot accuses Cassidy of opposing the border fence while she was the one to work to secure the border.
• NC-Sen: The NRA spends $116,000 for Republican Thom Tillis.
• OR-Sen: Freedom Partners recently announced that they were canceling their planned October ad buys for Republican Monica Wehby, but they're still spending another $288,000 for now.
• Senate: Various expenditures from the DSCC.
• MD-Gov: The DGA recently committed $750,000 here, and now we have a copy of their ad. The spot attacks Republican Larry Hogan for prioritizing tax breaks for the rich over education.
• NM-Gov: For a candidate who is usually seen as the clear favorite to win, Republican Gov. Susana Martinez has sure run a lot of negative spots against Democrat Gary King. Her latest ad accuses King of publishing Martinez's stolen emails to embarrass the governor, including information about innocent victims.
• WI-Gov: Republican politicians love to compare themselves to Ronald Reagan, and Democrat Mary Burke's new spot contrasts Dutch with Republican Gov. Scott Walker. This time of course, it's not the type of comparison Walker would like. Burke describes Reagan as using tax cuts to help working families, while Walker's tax cuts hurt them.
Walker himself has a spot where he stands in a hole in the ground. He accuses Burke (without mentioning her by name) of leaving the state in a hole financially. Walker then describes his tenure as getting Wisconsin out of the hole, as the governor climbs up a ladder.
• AZ-01: The DCCC goes after Republican Andy Tobin over education cuts. The spot portrays Tobin digging a hole in the ground to represent the poor state of Arizona schools, with the narrator saying, "When you're stuck in a hole, stop digging." Personally, I think the hole Scott Walker dug in his ad looks more comfortable.
• CA-26: Republican Jeff Gorell has a bunch of people saying generic nice things about him.
• FL-02: Republican Rep. Steve Southerland once again ties Democrat Gwen Graham to national Democrats.
• GA-12: Democratic Rep. John Barrow's spot features a local veteran praising the congressman for getting a VA clinic for his area.
• NH-01: Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is out with her first spot, a compare-and-contrast ad against her Republican foe former Rep. Frank Guinta.
• NH-02: Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster has generally been viewed as the clear favorite against Republican Marilinda Garcia in this Obama 54-45 seat, but conservative groups look like they're ready to commit the resources they need to compete in this expensive district. Freedom Partners is spending $372,000 here and there's likely to be more where that came from. The Club For Growth spent big to help Garcia win Tuesday's primary, and it's very unlikely that they're going to give up on her now.
• NY-21: Democrat Aaron Woolf accuses Elise Stefanik of being an out-of-touch political operative who wants to endanger the safety net.
• NY-24: This is unexpected. Republican John Katko, a former federal prosecutor, has generally been viewed as a longshot against Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei. However, the NRCC apparently thinks they can put this Syracuse-area seat into play: They've reserved $1.2 million here. Maffei recently attacked Katko in an ad, indicating he's taking this contest seriously.
For his part, Katko has a new spot, featuring a girl praising Katko for fighting drug traffickers in her neighborhood and serving as a mentor to her.
• WV-02: Republican Alex Mooney turns to page 1 in Obama! Obama! Obama!: A Guide to Winning As a Republican In a Red State. His new spot links Democrat Nick Casey to national Democrats, accusing Casey of being a Obamacare lover who hates West Virginia jobs and is a libural.
• WV-03: Freedom Partners spends $108,000 on a spot accusing Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall of trying to kill coal jobs.
• House: Various expenditures from the DCCC and NRSC.
2:00 PM PT (David Jarman): Senate: Here's an interesting study from Lake Research about the Senate, not about who's leading in the decisive states, but rather more about the "why" behind the Democrat's midterm dropoff problem. They looked at focus groups of "low-propensity" voters in the Democratic coalition, and found that the basic facts that Daily Kos readers probably take for granted need constant reiteration ... details like who controls the Senate, what impact who controls the Senate has on specific policies, and how the outcome in their particular state could affect Senate control.
Maybe it's not that surprising a finding; what will be noteworthy would be how much Democratic message-makers take this information to heart. This would potentially mean simplifying messaging even further and then tying that directly into appeals for turnout -- in other words, using ads to connect the dots, instead of simply having doomy-sounding narrators rattling off facts about how "Senator X didn't support Y policy!" which just turns into so much random background noise for most viewers after a while.
2:14 PM PT: NC-Sen: The conservative Civitas Institute isn't really coming up with numbers they'd like this year, and you can tell because the headline they've slapped on their newest poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, is a lulzy attempt at distraction: "Bush Surpasses Obama in Favorability," according to North Carolina voters. Could anyone possibly care? The real numbers, though, and reveal that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has a 46-43 lead on Republican Thom Tillis, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 5. (SurveyUSA hasn't polled here since March, when Tillis led 46-45.)
Civitas doesn't endorse candidates, but its full name is the John William Pope Civitas Institute, which may sound a bit familiar. That's because it's part of Republican malefactor Art Pope's network of institutions that he uses to push North Carolina politics far to the right. And Civitas even sent one of their own senior analysts, Chris Hayes, to join Tillis' staff when he was elected speaker of the House; Hayes is now his chief of staff.
So there's undoubtedly a rooting interest at play here, but while Civitas did try to bury the lede, at least they released the data. Thom Tillis can't be very pleased, though.
2:24 PM PT: CO-Sen, Gov: SUSA's gubernatorial portion isn't quite so rosy for Democrats, though. They have Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper up 45-43 on Republican Bob Beauprez, but that's actually very similar to the HuffPo Pollster average, which stands at 46-44.
2:34 PM PT: TX-Gov: Democrat Wendy Davis has released an internal poll from the Benenson Strategy Group showing her down 46-38 to Republican Greg Abbott in the open-seat race for Texas governor. Davis says that previously unreleased trendlines had Abbott up 12 in August, and 23 all the way back in January, so she's contending that the gap has narrowed. Additionally, her numbers have Abbott below 50 percent (a fact her memo's title highlights), compared to many other pollsters who've had Abbott at or above the half-century mark.
It's also one of the smallest leads Abbott's seen in quite some time, apart from a Rasmussen survey last month that had him up 48-40—but, you know, Rasmussen. Davis still has a very tough path to victory, but the purpose of leaking this poll is to argue that she has one in the first place.