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Race Ratings: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to roll out a brand-new version of our
race ratings page. You can now find all of our
Senate,
gubernatorial, and
House ratings on a single page, with handy anchor links to each section. We're also issuing a number of changes, informed in many cases by the spending decisions made by major outside groups and party committees. The first trio of bullets feature races that have become less competitive; those that follow feature races that have become more competitive. (In the final bullet, we're initiating coverage on a new race.)
•
NC-Sen (Tossup to Tossup/Tilt D): We're reinstituting "tilt" ratings, a concept borrowed from the Rothenberg Political Report and one
that we employed in the FL-13 special election earlier this year. Now that we have a sufficient amount of information—in this case,
a boatload of polling data—we feel comfortable saying that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan has a small but discernable advantage on Republican Thom Tillis.
Since the May 6 primary, Tillis has led in just five of 23 public polls. Hagan's been on top the last eight surveys in a row, and Huffington Post Pollster gives Hagan an average 3-point lead. Things could shift back in Tillis' direction, of course, but a slight breeze has been at Hagan's back for quite a while, and there isn't a ton of time left.
• CA-36 (Tossup to Lean D): We were very worried at the start of the cycle that Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz would be especially vulnerable to midterm dropoff in this heavily Latino district. However, he performed very well in the top-two primary, taking over 50 percent of the vote. Even if he doesn't see his numbers go up much in November, he's in a good position, and national Republicans haven't spent a dime here.
• NV-03 (Lean R to Likely R): One of the first big Democratic recruits of the cycle came in Nevada's swingy 3rd District, where Erin Bilbray, the well-connected daughter of a former congressman, looked like she could give GOP Rep. Joe Heck a stiff challenge. But she never appeared to gain traction, and the DCCC hasn't gotten involved. A long time ago, she released an internal poll showing her down 8 points. We haven't heard anything since.
• FL-02 (Lean R to Tossup/Tilt R): Democrats would very like to beat Rep. Steve Southerland very badly, and Florida's 2nd has, to date, seen more third-party spending than any other GOP-held district. Democrats also have a strong candidate in Gwen Graham, the daughter of ex-Gov./ex-Sen. Bob Graham, who's outraised the incumbent. Polls have also shown a very tight race. This was once Blue Dog territory, and Graham has indeed been endorsed by what remains of that organization. But while Democrats regularly held down seats like this in the past, those days are in the past. It'll still require a serious effort—and a bunch of good luck—to turn the tide.
• CA-26, IL-12 (Lean D to Tossup): Democrats appear to be fretful about their chances of holding both of these seats, and spending has already reached seven figures in IL-12, where Rep. Bill Enyart is likely to face a serious headwind thanks to Gov. Pat Quinn's unpopularity. Meanwhile, Rep. Julia Brownley is reportedly in a "dead heat" with Republican Jeff Gorrell.
• MN-07, NH-02, NY-24 (Likely D to Lean D): Democrats probably still have the edge in all three of these seats, but outside expenditures indicate that all are shaping up to be competitive races. MN-07, a red seat held down by popular Rep. Collin Peterson, could wind up as a tossup by Election Day, and New Hampshire is always unpredictable.
• MI-01 (Likely R to Lean R): MI-01 is almost a mirror-image of NY-24, turf where Democrats were once competitive but is likely out of reach, particularly in a midterm year. However, the DCCC's spending like they have a shot at unseating Rep. Dan Benishek.
• WA-04 (Lean Newhouse): Thanks to the state's top-two primary system, Washington's red 4th District is home to a GOP-on-GOP battle in November between former state Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse and ex-NFL tight end Clint Didier. Didier, a tea partier, edged Newhouse 32-26 in the first round of voting, but Newhouse has enjoyed somewhat better fundraising. More importantly, he has the backing of the establishment, including an endorsement from retiring Rep. Doc Hastings. There hasn't been any polling here, though, so a surprise is very possible.
8:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-25: There have been quite a few developments in this Antelope Valley seat since the top-two primary. In June, Republicans Tony Strickland and Steve Knight advanced to the general election, leaving Democrats without a candidate. Defeated Democratic contender Lee Rogers endorsed Knight, and it looked like the battle-lines were drawn here. While Knight had a well-earned reputation as a social conservative, he represented most of the district in the state Senate and had the chance to consolidate enough Democratic voters to overcome Strickland's massive cash lead.
Things haven't gone quite as planned. Rather than try and win Democrats and independents, Knight has done the opposite and lurched even further to the right. Knight was one of the very few state legislatures to vote against a bill that prohibited the state from "from selling or displaying the Battle Flag of the Confederacy, or a similar image," exempting products with "an educational or historic purpose". Knight also brought in state Assemblymember Tim Donnelly to campaign for him: Donnelly ran for governor this year as a hard-line conservative.
All of this has led Rogers to drop his endorsement. Strickland is also jumping on this, calling for Knight to un-invite Donnelly while criticizing Knight's vote on the Confederate flag bill. There is a lot up in the air here, but recent events could give Strickland a chance to make inroads among Democrats and independents and cost Knight a win in November.
9:23 AM PT: HI-01: Honolulu Civil Beat's new poll from Merriman River, which found Democrat David Ige up 4 points in the governor's race, also includes numbers on Hawaii's open-seat contest in the 1st Congressional District. There, the numbers are much more worrisome for the blue team. Republican ex-Rep. Charles Djou, who briefly held this seat after winning a freaky special election in 2010, leads Democratic state Rep. Mark Takai 46-42.
What's more, Djou outperformed Mitt Romney in 2012 by a greater margin than any other Republican who ran for the House anywhere in the country, running more than 30 points ahead of the top of the ticket, so he has undisputed crossover appeal. But the good news for Takai is that this is now Djou's fourth bid for Congress and hence his name recognition is far greater; Takai, as a state legislator, has much more room to grow.
Takai also trailed in primary polling for the longest time. He only mad a final big surge—against a much more established candidate, state Senate President Donna Mercado Kim— right at the very end, so if there's anyone who can come from behind in the late stages, it's certainly Takai. And that, of course, is if Merriman is even correct in the first place. Experienced observers know that they have one of the worst track records of any public pollster, so they're not a firm anyone should put a lot of stock in.
Still, a Djou victory cannot be ruled out, so we're moving this race from Safe D to Likely D on our big board.
9:29 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AK-Sen, Gov: PPP takes a look at the Last Frontier and finds tight races for U.S. Senate and governor. In the former contest, they find Republican Dan Sullivan with a small 43-41 lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. When supporters of third-party candidates are asked to choose between the two main contenders, Sullivan posts a 45-42 edge.
While this is far from a huge deficit, there is one massive warning sign for Begich in the crosstabs. Begich's approval rating is underwater at 42-51, while Sullivan posts a 44-42 favorable rating. If this is anywhere close to accurate, Begich could be in real trouble: It's very difficult to win in a state hostile to your party when you're clearly the less popular of the two candidates. Not helping things is that Barack Obama has a 40-56 job approval rating here.
It's worth noting that a recent Harstad poll conducted for the pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC showed a very different race here. They pegged Begich's favorable rating at 50-42, a lot better than Sullivan's 41-42 rating. All this gave Begich a five-point lead in Harstad's survey. Favorable ratings and job approval ratings aren't the same thing, and it's possible that a tangible amount of voters like Begich personally while disapproving of his job in the Senate, but it's unlikely that PPP and Harstad are both right at the same time.
Begich may have some room to grow in PPP's survey. The undecideds are mostly independents, a group that is breaking for Begich 42-36. Looking at race, more non-white voters (primarily Native Americans) are undecided than whites: "Other" is currently breaking for Begich 42-34. That said, this may all come down to a question of whether PPP or Harstad is closer to the mark when it comes to Begich's popularity. If Harstad's right and Begich is popular he stands a good chance to win; if PPP is correct and voters are unhappy with Begich's performance in office, it's very hard to see him winning unless Sullivan's ratings crash.
Things are also tight for governor. A few weeks ago, Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the race and accepted the lieutenant governor's spot on independent Bill Walker's ticket. PPP finds Walker leading Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by a narrow 42-41 spread: When supporters of minor independent candidates are asked to choose between the two, Walker leads 45-41.
Parnell isn't popular, posting a 42-46 job approval, while Walker has a healthy 40-23 job approval. The only other recent poll of the Parnell-Walker race came from Hays Research on behalf of the AFL-CIO: They gave Walker a larger 37-30 edge. The Senate race will overshadow the gubernatorial contest, but it looks like Parnell has a real fight on his hands.
11:11 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Several pro-GOP spots here today. Republican Dan Sullivan ties Democratic Sen. Mark Begich to Obama on guns. Crossroads GPS hits Begich as fiscally irresponsible, spending another $788,000 (here and here). The NRSC also criticizes Begich's record as mayor of Anchorage, continuing a recent theme we've seen in these spots.
• AR-Sen: The DSCC hits Republican Tom Cotton on Medicare once again. On the GOP side, Crossroads GPS spends $281,000.
• CO-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Udall on Obamacare. Crossroads GPS features a woman criticizing Udall for treating women as single-issue voters, not talking about the issues that matter. It's an interesting approach, and perhaps a sign that the GOP is afraid that Democratic attempts to paint Republican Cory Gardner as an extremist on birth control and abortion are working. The Crossroads GPS ad is part of a new $1,167,000 buy.
• IA-Sen: The NRSC once again hits Democrat Bruce Braley for skipping important votes. Crossroads GPS also continues hitting Braley on environmental policies. The American Chemistry Council for their part goes positive with a boring ad for Republican Joni Ernst.
• KS-Sen: Freedom Partners continues to link independent Greg Orman to national Democrats, unsubtly arguing that "a vote for Greg Orman is one more vote for Barack Obama."
• KY-Sen: The Kentucky Opportunity Coalition ties Democrat Alison Grimes with Obama on immigration: The first half of the ad features clips of the two of them saying similar things about a pathway for citizenship, while the second part argues how this would hurt Kentucky. The buy is for a little over $1 million.
• MI-Sen: Democrat Gary Peters is the latest candidate to stress how adorably cheap he is, much to his family's frustration.
• NC-Sen: Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Thom Tillis on Medicare and student loans. On the GOP-side, Carolina Rising has two positive spots for Tillis (here and here). The group takes a page from the Democratic playbook and praises Tillis for helping a family against greedy insurance companies.
• NH-Sen: Well, this is interesting timing. Republican Scott Brown decries how Obama and Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen are "confused" about how to protect America from radical Islamic terrorism. The ad is running just as the Obama Administration began bombing ISIS. Weirdly, the ad goes with soft background music instead of the "OMG we're all going to die!!!" soundtrack you may expect from a spot about terrorism.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley highlights a restaurant owner who was almost a victim of eminent domain, saying if Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy had his way she would have lost her business.
• GA-Gov: After a long absence, the RGA returns to the air here, hitting Democrat Jason Carter on jobs, education funding, and Obamacare.
• IL-Gov: Days after Republican Bruce Rauner accused Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn of letting dangerous prisoners go free, Quinn's camp has a response ad. The narrator describes how Quinn immediately reversed the release order when he learned about it, showing real leadership. Unlike a lot of response ads, it doesn't accuse Rauner of lying, though that ad probably won't be far behind.
• HI-Gov: The DGA-backed Hawaii Forward goes positive, praising Democrat David Ige's record. The RGA has already gotten involved here.
• MD-Gov: The DGA accuses Republican Larry Hogan of being an extremist on abortion and birth control.
• ME-Gov: Democrat Mike Michaud argues that he's above the fray in an increasingly negative campaign, laying out his jobs plan. Independent Eliot Cutler talks infrastructure.
• MI-Gov: The DGA hits Republican Gov. Rick Snyder on taxes hikes.
• NE-Gov: In a minute-long spot, a mother praises Republican Pete Ricketts for saving her children's' school.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott.
• WI-Gov: That didn't take long: The RGA is accusing Democrat Mary Burke of plagiarizing her jobs plan, arguing she has no idea how to create jobs. The ad is referring to news that a former Burke adviser lifted parts of other candidates' jobs plans while writing hers, though he reportedly wrote those plans too. For her part, Burke hits Republican Gov. Scott Walker in job losses.
• AR-02: Republican French Hill.
• AZ-02: Americans for Responsible Solutions praises Democratic Rep. Ron Barber on guns and for saving the A-10 jet.
• FL-02: The Environmental Defense Fund ties Republican Rep. Steve Southerland to the Koch brothers and big oil.
• HI-01: Democrat Mark Takai's spot is narrated by Illinois congresswoman Tammy Duckworth, who is a former Hawaii resident and fellow veteran.
• IL-17: Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos (here and here).
• NJ-02: Republican Rep. Frank LoBiondo.
• DCCC: New Democratic ads in CA-26, CT-05, NE-02, NH-02, and NY-24. The most interesting target is CT-05: Republican Mark Greenberg hasn't gotten too much attention on his contest with Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty, but this Obama 54-45 seat has always been on the radar.
• NRCC: New Republican spots in AZ-01, AZ-02, CA-07, CO-06, FL-02, GA-12, MN-07, NY-01, and WV-03.
11:18 AM PT: NY-21: Elise Stefanik won't have to worry about Matt Doheny siphoning any votes away from her this fall. Doheny, who lost the GOP nomination in New York's open 21st District to Stefanik back in June, was still set to appear on the November ballot on the Independence Party's line. However, the Conservative Party (which had previously given their endorsement to Stefanik) did the IP a favor and nominated Doheny for a judgeship in Brooklyn, the only reliable way to get a candidate off the ballot. (New York law forbids running for two posts at once.)
The IP then endorsed Stefanik, which means she'll have the Republican, Conservative, and Independence lines this fall. Democrat Aaron Woolf will also appear on the Working Families Party line, though a Green Party candidate, Matt Funiciello, is also in the race. Funiciello threatens to seriously undermine Woolf's already difficult chances: A recent Siena poll found him taking 10 percent of the vote. What's more, the NRCC has already spent in the low six figures here, but the DCCC hasn't lifted a finger. In fact, the House Majority PAC just cancelled a $100,000 ad reservation for late October.
While the 21st is a closely divided district (it went 52-46 for Obama) it's also ancestrally Republican. In fact, according to a seminal analysis by community member Silver Spring at the Swing State Project, over 60 percent of population of the old 23rd District (the predecessor of the 21st) lived in territory that had not elected a Democrat since 1890 or earlier, until Bill Owens prevailed in the 2009 special election. It looks like this seat is ready to revert to form, though, so we're moving this race from Tossup to Lean R.
11:38 AM PT: KS-Sen: The Kansas Supreme Court has kicked a lawsuit aimed at forcing Democrats to name a replacement for Chad Taylor in the Senate race down to a lower court for further proceedings, which as Rick Hasen explains will almost certainly run out the clock. Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach has tried to delay the printing of ballots for overseas voters, but he's actually past the legal deadline now and there's almost no way this case can reach a conclusion before final ballots are prepared. That means we'll have a three-way race between independent Greg Orman, GOP Sen. Pat Roberts, and Libertarian Randall Batson.
11:43 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AR-Sen, Gov: PPP takes a look at the Natural State, and they do not find good news for Democrats in either of this year's contests. In the Senate race, Republican Tom Cotton leads Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 43-38, up three points from early August. That's not a good spread for Pryor but what's really terrifying is his approval rating. Pryor posts a dire 36-51 job approval, while Cotton has a 40-41 favorable rating. Unless this poll is really wrong or unless Cotton gets really unpopular really fast, it's hard to see Pryor winning here with these kinds of numbers.
It is worth noting that a recent Hickman Analytics poll for the DSCC showed a different terrain: They found Pryor up 46-43, and posting a 47-39 favorable rating compared to Cotton's 43-38. A recent Marist poll also found both candidates with similar favorable ratings, though they also had Cotton up by five-points among likely voters. Pryor had better hope that he's not anywhere as reviled as PPP thinks he is, or else there's probably no way he's going back to Washington.
We also have a look at the gubernatorial race, and PPP, like almost everyone, shows Republican Asa Hutchinson leading Democrat Mike Ross. They give Hutchinson a 44-38 edge, very similar to what they found in August. Opinion of Ross is mixed, with him posting a 35-36 favorable rating, but Hutchinson is well liked at 43-35. Both parties are spending big here and this doesn't look over, but this continues to look like Hutchinson's race to lose.
One potential piece of good news for Democrats here is that outgoing Gov. Mike Beebe is very popular, with an excellent 63-21 favorable rating. Pryor and Ross are hoping that some of Beebe's popularity rubs off on them, and we'll see if Democrats can make good use of the governor. In a hypothetical 2016 Senate match, Beebe leads Republican incumbent John Boozman 49-39. However, given that Beebe would be almost 70 on election day that year, he may not be keen to start a Senate career from scratch.
12:18 PM PT: MI-Sen: Rasmussen: Gary Peters (D): 41, Terri Lynn Land (R): 39 (July: 45-39 Peters).
12:29 PM PT: WI-Gov: FLOTUS Alert! Michelle Obama is coming to Wisconsin on Monday to campaign with Mary Burke. A fundraiser may be in the offing, too.
1:49 PM PT (Taniel): IA-Sen: It’s that time of the cycle when states start releasing statistics on absentee and early voting, and when we try to read the tealeaves. What we know for sure about Iowa is that absentee voting is much more popular this year than it was in 2010: The number of requests has doubled compared to where we were at this point of the cycle that year. More than 121,000 absentee ballots have already been requested this year, 63,485 of them from registered Democrats (that’s 52 percent) and 33,073 of them from registered Republicans (that’s 27 percent). At first glance that looks great for Democrats, but the picture is a bit more ambiguous.
Iowa Democrats have long had a top-notch program to bank votes early, and their advantage has shrunk this year compared to what it was in 2010 – and it’s not like they ended up having a good Election Night that year: As of September 22, 2010, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans 2.6 to 1 among ballot requests. But their edge this year, as of September 23, is 1.9 to 1. Put another way: The number of registered Democrats who have requested a ballot as of Tuesday is 70 percent higher than the number at this point four years ago, but the number of registered Republicans has surged by 130 percent.
On the other hand, given how much the number of requests has increased, comparisons become very difficult. As the universe of absentee voters expands, it is unlikely for a party to have the type of advantage we have seen in years past, as a general culture of voting early comes to supplement organized efforts to get people to do so. In fact, we’re talking here about 121,812 requests – about 12 percent of the 2010 electorate – so it remains impressive that Democrats manage to retain such a towering advantage. As turnout expert Michael McDonald put it, it’s “hard to read +30K ballot req among reg Ds as indicator of less enthusiasm from '10.”
2:10 PM PT: AZ-Gov: Dueling polls of Arizona's open-seat race for governor appeared on Tuesday, though they aren't actually that far apart. A Tarrance Group survey for a conservative organization called the Arizona Free Enterprise Club finds Republican Doug Ducey up 44-38 on Democrat Fred DuVal, while Libertarian Barry Hess takes 6. (In an amusing aside, there's an Americans Elect candidate here who gets all of 1 percent of the vote. Great use of hedge fund money!)
Tarrance's is actually the first poll all year to show more than a 2-point difference between the two leading contenders. However, a separate poll from Democratic pollster Keating Research, conducted on behalf of progressive group Project New America, is in line with prior data and puts Ducey up just 41-39 on DuVal.
2:27 PM PT: WATN?: Former Sen. Norm Coleman of Minnesota has enjoyed life these past few years as a guardian of the GOP establishment, doling out large checks to benefit "mainstream" Republicans against tea party insurgents from his perch at the American Action Network, a top super PAC. Now Coleman has added another lucrative gig to his resume: lobbyist for Saudi Arabia. Yep, that Saudi Arabia.
2:32 PM PT: IA-03: A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll for the DCCC finds Democrat Staci Appel edging Republican David Young 47-44 in Iowa's up-for-grabs 3rd District, a small improvement from a previously unreleased 46-46 tie back in early August. The latest numbers are not too different, margin-wise, from a recent Loras College poll that had Appel up 40-34, though The Hill's Cam Joseph notes that "Democrats have privately admitted that poll was a bit bullish for their party."
2:44 PM PT: KS-Sen: Roberts faces a very poignant problem, though—well, poignant for him, delicious for Democrats: He's suffered terribly in the polls for going invisible, but he's also a serious danger to himself whenever he's in front of a microphone. These extraordinary remarks were caught by trackers just the other day:
And I will tell you that one of the reasons—I'm going to get partisan here—but one of the reasons I'm running is to change that. To change that. There's an easy way to do it. I'll let you figure it out. But, at any rate, we have to change course, because our country is headed for national socialism. That's not right. Changing the culture, changing what we're all about.
You know who
else... naw, I just can't. Pat Roberts just makes it too easy.