Democrat Mike Michaud
Leading Off:
• ME-Gov: On behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, PPP takes another look at the Pine Tree State's gubernatorial contest and finds what most recent polls have found: A close and unpredictable contest between Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud. PPP finds the two deadlocked 40-40, with left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler taking 17.
LePage remains unpopular, sporting an upside down 43-53 favorability rating. Michaud and his allies have been running ads reminding voters why they dislike LePage so much: One ad describes how, among other things, LePage twice compared the IRS to the Nazis and told the NAACP to kiss his butt. Another spot features LePage's infamous remark, "If you want a good education, go to private schools. If you can't afford it, tough luck."
The problem is that national Republicans have been hitting Michaud on the airwaves, arguing that he wants to help undocumented immigrants at the expense of the middle class. PPP finds Michaud with a 47-46 rating, better than LePage but not where he wants to be. By comparison, Cutler has a 39-38 rating.
Back in 2010 Cutler came very close to beating LePage, but there's no doubt that his presence is helping the governor this time. In a two-way race, Michaud would lead LePage by a more comfortable 49-44. The good news for Democrats is that Cutler has all but stopped running ads, and if he fades Michaud should benefit. The bad news is that Cutler is too well known to completely crater, and he can still take enough votes to give LePage a second term. The Republicans are well aware of this, and they've been sending mailers to Democratic voters to boost Cutler and Michaud's expense. Right now it looks like Cutler's decline could give Michaud some much-needed room to grow, but in a race like this nothing is certain at all.
Race Ratings: We've changed our rating in six contests. Four move to the GOP (including our separate HI-01 item), one moves to the Democrats, and one is for a Democratic vs. Democratic general election. As always, you can check out all of our race ratings on our big board.
• NH-Sen (Lean Democratic to Tossup/ Tilt D): Carpetbagging Republican Scott Brown has done all that he can to lose this race, but it still may not be enough. Poll after poll finds that voters have a much better opinion of Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen than the former Massachusetts senator, but the treacherous political climate is still dragging her down. Most, though not all, polls still
give Shaheen a small lead and she's usually close to the 50 percent mark, so we're giving her the edge. Still, with Shaheen's own allies releasing polls showing her up by only 4 points, it's clear she's in for a serious fight to the finish.
• MA-Gov (Lean Democratic to Tossup): It's no secret that while Massachusetts is a solidly blue state (or commonwealth), it's more than willing elect Republican governors to counterbalance the overwhelmingly Democratic legislature. After eight years of Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick the state looks ready to offer the GOP another shot, and that's given Republican Charlie Baker an opening against Democrat Martha Coakley. Most polls show a close race, and even a new Democratic internal only gives Coakley a 1-point edge. National Republicans are also smelling an opportunity: They've already invested millions here, and they just committed another $2,250,000. Baker also has a huge cash-on-hand lead over Coakley and while national Democrats have aired ads here, the GOP still has a huge advantage on the airwaves. Coakley has definitely improved as a candidate since her disastrous 2010 Senate race, and she can still pull off a win, but it's not going to be easy.
• AR-04 (Likely Republican to Lean Republican): Republican Bruce Westerman initially looked like the heavy favorite to succeed Tom Cotton in this ancestrally Democratic but very conservative southern Arkansas seat. However, Democrats found a formidable candidate in former FEMA Director James Lee Witt, and it looks like he's getting traction here. A recent Hendrix College Poll found Westerman with only a 44-42 lead, and the GOP's response indicates that it's not far from the mark. A Republican internal gives Westerman only a 46-39 lead, and Crossroads just invested $480,000 to help him. Witt will need a lot of luck to cross the finish line in this 62-36 Romney seat, but it doesn't look so improbable anymore.
• CA-17 (Lean Honda to No Clear Favorite): Rep. Mike Honda remains locked in a tough general election race with fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, and things are looking pretty dicey here. A recent SurveyUSA poll found Honda with only a 37-35 lead, making this the third recent poll we've seen that shows Honda uncomfortably far away from a majority. Honda also recently released a very negative spot, another sign that he's not where he wants to be. Honda does have a big financial edge: As of Oct. 15 he leads Khanna $420,000 to $148,000 in cash-on-hand. But it's looking like both candidates will need to fight hard to take a majority next month.
• NV-04 (Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic): A week ago it looked like Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford would cruise to victory against underfunded Republican Assemblyman Cresent Hardy in this 55-44 Obama seat. However, Democratic early voting turnout has been nothing short of abysmal (see our Early Voting section below), a very troubling sign for a party that dominated among early voters even in 2010. National Republicans sense an opportunity, and American Crossroads has invested over $1 million here. The district is blue enough that Horsford should still come out on top, but there isn't much doubt that this contest is moving in the wrong direction.
Early Voting: In-person voting started in Florida last week on Monday and in North Carolina on Thursday. Below, Taniel gives us a rundown of how things are looking for both sides in each state, as well as Iowa and Nevada. For now, Democrats are seeing what they need to see in both Southern states—something that can absolutely not be said about Nevada.
• Florida: Since it started on Monday, in-person voting has helped Democrats make up some of the deficit they faced from mail-in voting. As of Friday, Republicans have an advantage of 9.8 percentage points among the 1.5 million early voters. During the last midterms, Florida Republicans ended up with an advantage of 14 points among all early voters. And this year's gap should continue to shrink as more Floridians vote in-person and offset absentee ballots. In fact, Florida Democrats have historically turned out at a higher pace over weekends thanks to their “souls to the polls” Sunday push, and we'll know very soon how this weekend went for Team Blue.
Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist's campaigns each wrote memos arguing that their side is doing great among early voters. As you can see, while Crist's memo primarily compares the current numbers to the 2010 cycle, Scott's memo primarily compares them to 2012. There is no denying that Democrats had a banner year in early voting in Florida thanks to Barack Obama's operation, but we also don't need this to tell us that Democrats face a turnout gap in midterm elections.
• Iowa: Every cycle, Iowa Republicans progressively chip away at Democrats' early voting advantage as Election Day drew near, but Democrats keep a clear edge going into Election Day. But what the state's Thursday morning report showed was more concerning: Registered Republicans had returned more ballots than registered Democrats, the first time this had happened over the three most recent cycles. Friday's report shows registered Democrats regaining a nominal edge of 0.2 percentage points, but that is far from the reserves they had banked in past years.
The promising news for Bruce Braley's Senate campaign is that Democrats have more ballots coming in the pipeline: After weeks of Republican gains, the Democratic advantage among absentee ballot requests has been steadily growing: Their advantage in the Friday morning report was 5 points, up from 3 points at the beginning of the week. Let's now see if the coming reports of returned ballots reflect this increased Democratic activity.
• Nevada: Is there any state with more dismal turnout numbers for Democrats Las Vegas' Clark County is the life and blood of state Democrats, who have had a very strong early voting operation in past cycles. But while registered Democrats have a double-digit voter registration edge in the county, they are now being outvoted. Until this year, Democrats had not even been outvoted in Clark County for even a single day since 2006. Registered Republicans are also turning out at a quicker pace in the rest of the state.
The GOP's advantage is a product of voter disaffection rather than rising enthusiasm: 70,000 people have cast a ballot for now in Clark County, compared to nearly 110,000 at the equivalent point in 2010. As we noted above, weak turnout in this county, the home of most of the state's population, has put Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in danger of losing re-election in the 4th Congressional District. Also at stake are two races that will determine control of the state Senate and several down-ballot statewide contests.
• North Carolina: In-person early voting started Thursday in North Carolina, and 118,000 voters took advantage of it on the first day. Fifty-one percent of them were registered Democrats, while 29 percent of them were registered Republicans. While Democrats have long enjoyed an edge in North Carolina's in-person early voting, their advantage this year is substantially greater than it was four years ago.
Unfortunately it is hard to compare these numbers to past cycles since state Republicans cut the early voting period in half this year. But Democrats should also be satisfied that it took four days for as many North Carolinians to vote during the last midterms. Kay Hagan needs a strong turnout operation to win re-election, and this first wave of statistics suggests Democrats are getting their voters to the polls. Can they keep up this pace? We'll find out soon enough.
Senate:
• DSCC: With everything on the line on Nov. 4, the DSCC is borrowing $10 million to help shore up its most vulnerable candidates. These sorts of loans are typical at the end of campaigns, but with so little time left and TV ad rates very expensive at this point, the bang for the buck is comparatively limited.
• Polling: I've run out of poll-related puns!
• AK-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D-inc) 44, Dan Sullivan (R) 44 (Sept.: 45-40 Begich) (conducted for Senate Majority PAC & Put Alaska First)
• AK-Sen: Hellenthal & Associates (R): Begich (D-inc) 49, Sullivan (R) 39 (Sept.: 46-42 Sullivan)
• CO-Sen: Keating Research (D): Mark Udall (D-inc) 45, Cory Garnder (R) 44 (Conducted for the Udall campaign)
• CO-Sen: Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) 46, Udall (D-inc) 41 (Oct. 16: 47-41 Gardner)
• GA-Sen: Abt SRBI: David Perdue (R) 44, Michelle Nunn (D) 42, Amanda Swafford (L) 6 (Sept.: 45-41 Perdue)
• GA-Sen: CNN/ORC: Nunn (D) 47, Perdue (R) 44, Swafford (L) 5
• GA-Sen: Landmark Communications (R): Nunn (D) 47, Perdue (R) 47, Swafford (L) 3 (Oct. 12: 46-46 tie)
• KS-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Greg Orman (I) 47, Pat Roberts (R-inc) 45 (Oct. 3: 47-40 Orman)
• NH-Sen: UMass Lowell: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc) 49, Scott Brown (R) 46
That Hellenthal poll is incredibly hard to believe (which is me being charitable), especially with Team Blue's poll showing Begich only tied. Hellenthal is
standing behind his numbers, citing Begich's ground game. But to paraphrase our own Steve Singiser, if you're showing a very different result from the rest of the pack, the odds are not good that you're right and everyone else is wrong.
Friday brought another ugly poll for Udall. This same Quinnipiac survey found Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper leading by 1, which is a sign that they aren't dramatically overestimating Republicans. Democrats have argued that since this will be the first Colorado election conducted entirely by mail, pollsters are overlooking plenty of Democratic leaning voters who wouldn't normally show up for a midterm.
That may be true, but even if you take Udall's poll completely at face value, it doesn't look like he has much breathing room even under the best of circumstances. And of course it's not a good sign that the best poll Udall's team will release shows him up by only a single point.
Gubernatorial:
• Polling:
• AK-Gov: Hellenthal & Associates (R): Sean Parnell (R-inc) 44, Bill Walker (I) 43
• AZ-Gov: The Polling Company (R): Doug Ducey (R) 42, Fred DuVal (D) 35 (Oct. 10: 46-37 Ducey) (Conducted for American Encore)
• GA-Gov: Abt SRBI: Nathan Deal (R-inc) 46, Jason Carter (D) 41, Andrew Hunt (L) 5 (Sept.: 43-42 Deal)
• GA-Gov: CNN/ ORC: Carter (D) 48, Deal (R-inc) 46, Hunt (L) 6
• GA-Gov: Landmark Communications (R): Deal (R-inc) 48, Carter (D) 45, Hunt (L) 5 (Oct. 12: 45-45 tie)
• HI-Gov: Tarrance Group (R): David Ige (D) 39, Duke Aiona (R) 36, Mufi Hannemann (I) 12 (Oct. 16: 39-37 Ige) (Conducted for the RGA)
• KS-Gov: Gravis (R): Paul Davis (D) 49, Sam Brownback (R-inc) 44 (Oct. 3: 48-40 Davis)
• KS-Gov: Rasmussen: Davis (D) 52, Brownback (R-inc) 45 (Sept.: 47-43 Davis)
• MA-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D): Martha Coakley (D) 45, Charlie Baker (R) 44 (Conducted for Massachusetts IE PAC)
• MA-Gov: SocialSphere: Baker (R) 44, Coakley (D) 35 (Oct. 17: 41-41 tie)
• NH-Gov: UMass Lowell: Maggie Hassan (D-inc) 49, Walt Havenstein (R) 45
Depending on which Georgia poll you believe, Deal is very close to winning without a runoff, Carter is close to taking a majority, or both are set for a runoff with Deal in the lead.
SocialSphere continues to show wild swings, with Baker apparently turning a tie into a 9-point lead in only a week. Not likely, especially since two weeks ago they found a 5-point Coakley lead. Still, the fact that GQR could only give Coakley a 1-point lead is not a good sign.
House:
• HI-01: On behalf of the Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star Advertiser, Ward Research takes a look at this open seat and sees a close race. The poll finds Democratic state Rep. Mark Takai and former Republican Rep. Charles Djou tied at 47 each. Ward just found Democrat David Ige with a 12-point lead statewide so it's hard to argue that they're dramatically oversampling Republicans this time. A September poll by Merriman River Group found Djou with a 4-point lead.
The DCCC quickly released a Global Strategy Group poll showing Takai up 49-42. This isn't a bad result, but it does point to a more competitive race than expected. The conservative American Action Network also smells blood here, and it's spending $300,000 (see our "Ads & Independent Expenditures" section for more). National Democrats haven't gotten involved here but VoteVets recently spent $185,000 for Takai, and a group called "Working Families for Hawaii" also dropped $144,000 for Team Blue.
Djou has a lot of work to do if he wants to win here. Obama took this seat 71-28, and fellow Democrat Mazie Hirono won 63-37 in the 2012 Senate race. Djou also has the dubious distinction of being one of only two House Republicans to fall during the 2010 GOP wave, losing 53-47 to outgoing Rep. Colleen Hanabusa. Still, it's becoming clear that a Djou victory isn't as unlikely as it may have once looked. As a result, Daily Kos Elections is changing our race rating from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
• NH-02: Republican Marilinda Garcia is locked in an expensive race against Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster, and she earned some bad headlines on Thursday. It turns out that Garcia lifted several parts of a 2012 speech opposing same-sex marriage from a National Review editorial, all without attribution. Garcia is calling this an oversight, but she allegedly also did a similar thing in a February speech. The Republican is firing back, arguing that Kuster also took parts of her press releases and website from other sources. As soon-to-be former Montana Sen. John Walsh and countless other politicians have learned, this is the type of story that can wound campaigns, sometimes fatally.
• DCCC: The DCCC is adding new buys in five House seats where they're playing defense. There's nothing surprising here, though; it's four seats that we already consider Tossups, plus one (NY-24) where Dan Maffei had a decent lead in a public poll a while ago, but where the Dems are trying to match a lot of Republican spending. The buys are $318,000 in IL-10, $485,000 in IL-12, $65,000 in MN-08, $233,000 in NY-24, and $163,000 in WV-03.
There's also a somewhat-cryptic tweet from Jon Ralston suggesting that the DCCC is about to jump in to the race in NV-04, where a combination of terrible Dem early voting rates and a buy from Crossroads have turned the race into a new headache. Ralston also implies that Bill Clinton will be dispatched to help rally the base to help save this seat before it's too late.
Other Races:
• NY State Senate: Siena's New York state Senate polling has been nothing but brutal for Democrats, so their latest survey of the Long Island-based 7th District almost counts as good news. Don't get me wrong: They still find GOP state Sen. Jack Martins up 52-37 on Democrat Adam Haber, but hey, at least that's better than Martins' 56-31 lead three weeks ago. Perhaps things would look different had Andrew Cuomo actually carried through on his promise to help Democrats retake the Senate, but is anyone shocked that he was completely full of it?
• Oakland Mayor: The most unpredictable race in America may very well turn out to be the mayoral contest in Oakland, California. Oakland is one of a few major cities to use the ranked-choice voting, also known as instant runoff. The system allows voters to rank their first, second, and third choice candidates, and votes are reallocated accordingly as candidates are eliminated until someone takes a majority. This makes it very difficult for pollsters to get an accurate read of the contest.
SurveyUSA is giving it a shot though. In the initial round, they find Councilor Rebecca Kaplan in the lead with 19 percent, followed by fellow Councilor Libby Schaaf at 17. Incumbent Mayor Jean Quan is tied with professor Joe Tuman for 15. The race is officially non-partisan but all the major candidates identify as Democrats, not a surprise in a city Obama carried with 91 percent of the vote.
Quan has been unpopular for a while, in large part due to her handling of the 2011 Occupy protests as well as crime. SurveyUSA asked voters who their second choice is: Kaplan and Schaaf each take 15, while Quan is tied for third with 10. This indicates that Quan doesn't have too much room to grow from her already shaky position. However, there's really no way to tell what will happen in a contest like this until all the votes are completely counted.
• State Legislatures: Carolyn Fiddler, author of the excellent newsletter "This Week in Statehouse Action," has put together an invaluable set of ratings for this year's competitive state legislatures. I've taken the liberty of transforming her ratings into traditional chart form.
As with our ratings, the light blue shading indicates that that the Iowa and Nevada Senates are "Tilt Democratic." Nevada may be my one point of disagreement with Fiddler: The terrible early voting numbers coming out of the Silver State make it seem like Democrats don't have any advantage at all. I also don't have much hope for Democrats taking back the New York Senate, though presumably it's listed as a Tossup because the breakaway Democrats of the IDC are so unpredictable.
In any event, click through to Fiddler's post for her analysis of what the implications would be if each of these chambers flipped. And note that these ratings might yet change before Election Day.
P.S. Louis Jacobson at Governing magazine also has his own state legislative ratings.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends another $150,000 for the Democrats.
• AR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor runs what's basically a greatest hits ad against Republican rival Tom Cotton. The narrator sums up most of the Democratic attacks on Cotton in 30 seconds; she hits Cotton's votes against the Violence Against Women Act, the Farm Bill, and funding for a children's hospital, as well as his support for tax cuts to billionaires. On the GOP side, Arkansas Horizon spends another $500,000.
• CO-Sen: On the Democratic side, Sen. Mark Udall has two spots (here and here). The first promotes Udall's work on renewable energy, while the second is a Spanish spot focused on voting by mail. The League of Conservation Voters also spends $218,000. For the GOP, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has a negative Spanish ad.
• GA-Sen: Republican David Perdue stars his mother praising him as a hard worker. Ending Spending rolls out Rep. Jack Kingston, who narrowly lost to Perdue in the GOP runoff. Kingston throws a few jabs at Democrat Michelle Nunn but mostly praises Perdue. The ad is running for $1.3 million.
• IA-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List spends $231,000 for the GOP. For Team Blue, NextGen Climate goes after Republican Joni Ernst on her ties to outsourcers and big oil.
• KS-Sen: Kansans Support Problem Solvers PAC drops $122,000 for independent Greg Orman.
• KY-Sen: Crossroads GPS features an animated Obama voting for Democrat Alison Grimes. On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC is back on the air. They accuse Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell of gambling other people's retirement savings while using his power to protect his own.
• NC-Sen: The DSCC hits Republican Thom Tillis in two spots (here and here). Both accuse Tillis of being part of a corrupt scheme to increase tolls in order to help his wealthy donors.
• NH-Sen: Ending Spending continues to tie Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen to Obama.
• SD-Sen: MoveOn.org spends $113,000 for the Democrats.
• Chamber: Pro-GOP expenditures from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Interestingly, we find out that they spent a hefty $700,000 on the "Chicken Dance" ad in the Iowa Senate race, making it one of the rare commercials that is both very stupid and very expensive.
• NextGen Climate: Pro-Democratic expenditures.
• NRA: Pro-GOP expenditures.
• Senate Majority PAC: Pro-Democratic expenditures.
• AR-Gov: Democrat Mike Ross promotes his middle class agenda, while portraying Republican Asa Hutchinson as an ally of the rich.
• CO-Gov: The DGA has two spots (here and here). The first attacks Republican Bob Beauprez over secession, which is not something you see every day. The narrator reads a Beauprez quote, where the candidate supports several conservative counties quest to form their own state.
Last year five counties voted to secede from Colorado, while six voted against it. The whole thing was symbolic since there was no way Congress and the Colorado Legislature would ever actually approve the creation of a new state as the Constitution would require. Since Beauprez announced his campaign for governor of the still-united state of Colorado he's been a lot less vocal about the idea, but the pro-secession quote in the ad is completely real.
The second Democratic spot goes after Beauprez in Spanish, while praising Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper.
• CT-Gov: Michael Bloomberg's PAC Independence USA spends $1.7 million in support of Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy. On the other side, Republican Tom Foley argues Malloy has failed as governor and change is needed.
• FL-Gov: The Florida Republican Party features Sen. Marco Rubio speaking in Spanish at a rally for Republican Gov. Rick Scott. For Team Blue, NextGen Climate has two spots (here and here). They praise Democrat Charlie Crist for standing up to greedy utility companies while accusing Scott of letting them gouge Floridians.
• GA-Gov: Republican Gov. Nathan Deal once again features former conservative Democratic Gov. and Sen. Zell Miller praising him on the Hope Scholarship.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn shows a clip of a rally with Michelle Obama.
• KS-Gov: Progressive Kick and the National Nurses Union hits Republican Gov. Sam Brownback over his brutal budget cuts. Democrat Paul Davis also promotes himself as a sensible alternative to Brownback.
• MD-Gov: Republican Larry Hogan stars his running mate former U.S. Department of Education Assistant Secretary Boyd Rutherford, who decries high taxes.
• WI-Gov: The RGA has invested another $1 million toward helping Republican Gov. Scott Walker.
• AR-02: Republican French Hill's positive spot starts Richard Mays, who was appointed to the Arkansas Supreme Court by then-Gov. Bill Clinton.
• AZ-02: Democratic Rep. Ron Barber argues that Republican Martha McSally is in the pocket of the Koch brothers. The DCCC also has two ads (here and here) going after McSally on Medicare and college tuition.
• HI-01: The American Action Network hits Democrat Mark Takai on taxes. The size of the buy is $300,000.
• IA-01: While each party ignored this open Democratic seat until recently, both sides are now spending to win it. The DCCC goes after Republican Ron Blum on Social Security and Medicare, while the American Action Network argues that Democrat Pat Murphy has raised taxes and spent irresponsibly; the size of the buy is $500,000.
• IA-02: This is another long neglected seat that Democrats are spending to defend late in the game. The DCCC ties Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks to outsourcers.
• IA-03: Americans for Responsible Solutions continues to portray Republican David Young as an out-of-touch Washington insider.
• IL-10: Democratic Rep. Brad Schneider has two spots (here and here). The first features Schneider telling the audience he'll hold the tea party accountable, while the second goes after Republican Bob Dold on Medicare and Social Security. Dold fires back, accusing Schneider of being the one who voted to cut Social Security. To our disappointment, not one of these ads refers to Dold by his correct title, "Bob Dold!" Only a week left guys.
• IL-12: Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart contrasts himself with Republican Mike Bost on the minimum wage and equal pay. Bost fires back, tying Enyart to Obama.
• MA-06: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce promotes Republican Richard Tisei as a reformer. The Congressional Leadership Fund also accuses Democrat Seth Moulton of getting rich off of corrupt companies; the size of the buy is $500,000.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Colin Peterson emphasizes his independence from Obama and Pelosi.
• MN-08: House Majority PAC spends $88,000 tying Republican Stewart Mills to the Koch brothers and their agenda.
• NY-01: The American Action Network accuses Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop of being corrupt. The ad is part of their $1.5 million ad campaign.
• NY-11: Democrat Domenic Recchia reminds voters that Republican Rep. Michael Grimm is under indictment, while portraying himself as someone who will stand up for the district.
• NY-18: The American Action Network portrays Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney as someone who takes advantage of the perks of power.
• NY-24: The NRCC continues to go after Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei as a Washington insider.
• OR-04: Ending Spending is engaging in some wasteful spending of their own, dropping $379,000 in support of Republican Art Robinson's campaign against Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio. On paper this is only a light blue district, backing Obama 52-45. DeFazio has bested Robinson twice though, winning 54-44 in 2010 and 59-39 two years later. We'll see if anyone else makes any last-minute buys here, but it's hard to believe the third time will be a charm for Robinson.
• TX-23: House Majority PAC spends $27,000 going after Republican Will Hurd on Social Security and the retirement age. For the GOP, the Congressional Leadership Fund calls Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego an Obama loyalist. The ad is part of their $1.6 million ad campaign.
• WV-03: Honest West Virginians spends $150,000 for Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.