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8:19 AM PT (David Jarman): WA St. Senate: Washington's state Senate continues to challenge the New York state Senate for the weirdest legislative chamber in the nation. On Monday, they upped the ante: the chamber's minority Democrats voted unanimously to elect a Republican as the Senate President Pro Tem, defeating the Democrat that the Republicans wanted in that position. And not just any Republican, but Pam Roach, who the Republicans threw out of their caucus for several years, not for moderate ideological heresy but for outright mental instability. (The Democrat that the GOP wanted to elect was Tim Sheldon, who was part of the coup that swung the chamber to the Republicans in 2012 and is the only remaining Dem who still caucuses with the GOP.)
Lest you think that the Dems were simply trying to improve their lot for 2016 by moving the GOP's looniest member to the spotlight, it's not that simple. For starters, Prez Pro Tem is a ceremonial presiding job; the majority leader wields the real power. Also, Roach was re-elected in 2014 as something of a quasi-Dem, thanks to Washington's Top 2 primary. She's in a red-enough district that her November opponent was a more neurotypical but also more conventionally conservative Republican; Roach beat her thanks to public employee union support. (Roach is in that odd Don Young-type space, where she's rabidly conservative on guns, and social and environmental issues, but friendly with labor. Because the GOP has a bare majority in the Senate now, though, she needed one GOP vote beside her own to win; she got that from fellow social-con Don Benton.)
9:05 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Ever since she was elected California attorney general in 2010, Democrat Kamala Harris has been viewed as a rising star in state politics. Even before four-term Sen. Barbara Boxer officially announced her retirement last week there was heavy speculation that Harris would run to succeed her. On Tuesday Harris officially jumped into the Senate race, and she quickly drew a favorable response from national Democrats. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee issued a press release praising Harris and serving as a message to her would-be opponents that they should stay out.
Harris is a formidable candidate, but she probably won't have the Democratic field to herself. Many potential candidates will probably decide to hold their fire until 2018 when Gov. Jerry Brown is termed-out and Sen. Dianne Feinstein is likely to retire, but some may decide to try their luck against Harris. Billionaire and environmentalist Tom Steyer is reportedly only days away from a decision, and he has the resources to get his message out. California has a history of rejecting wealthy statewide candidates, but Steyer would at least be able to make things interesting.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa also has confirmed that he's serious about a run. If both Northern Californians Harris and Steyer run Villaraigosa may be able to carve out a base in Southern California, though he has plenty of detractors at home. On Monday Treasurer John Chiang's camp also made noises about joining the race. Other Democrats who have expressed interest are Secretary of State Alex Padilla, Reps. John Garamendi, Loretta Sanchez, and Eric Swalwell, and former Rep. Ellen Tauscher. Harris' announcement is going to force them and any other potential candidates to make a decision quickly, but it's unlikely that they'll all decline to run.
California is a dark blue state and Republicans know they have little shot in a head-to-head race here. However, California uses the top-two primary system where all the candidates run on the ballot regardless of party, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to November. If there are just enough Democratic candidates splitting the vote, it is possible that two Republicans could advance and give the GOP an automatic pickup. It's unlikely but it's something Democrats are aware of, and it does explain why the DSCC is trying to clear the field for Harris. Some of the Republicans flirting with a bid are Fresno Mayor and 2014 controller nominee Ashley Swearengin, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, and two former state party chairs.
Harris entering the race will definitely shape this race, and we're going to see a lot more developments in the Golden State in the coming days. We'll be following it all at Daily Kos Elections.
9:42 AM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-08: Republicans are looking to defend this open Bucks County swing seat, but they'll need to do it without outgoing Lt. Gov. Jim Cawley. On Tuesday, Cawley announced that he would head the United Way of Greater Philadelphia and Southern New Jersey, taking him out of the running here.
While Cawley was the GOP's top recruit, the party doesn't lack potential candidates here. James McGinnis of the Bucks County Courier Times reports that state Rep. Gene DiGirolamo is meeting with local Republicans about a potential run; DiGirolamo himself says he might announce his decision within the next two weeks. DiGirolamo's 18th House District backed Obama 58-41 so he definitely has experience winning over crossover voters: The 20-year incumbent did not even draw an opponent last year.
If DiGirolamo declines, Team Red has some other fallback options. Roll Call recently named Bucks County Commission Chair Robert Loughery and state Rep. Scott Petri, with PoliticsPA identifying Petri as the more interested of the two. National Republicans have also not been subtle about trying to persuade retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick to reverse course and run again, but so far they seem to be having no luck.
On the Democratic side state Rep. Steve Santarsiero is already in, and 2014 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton is looking at another bid. Former Rep. Patrick Murphy is also a potential candidate, though PoliticsPA notes that between his MSNBC gig and his job at a D.C. law firm, Murphy may not want to go back to Congress. Bucks County Commissioner Diane Marseglia could also run but she's said no to the DCCC for years. In any case, we should have quite a race to watch in a seat that Romney only carried by 0.10 percent.
10:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-25: Gates town supervisor Mark Assini was just 583 votes away from pulling off the biggest election night shocker last year, barely losing to Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter in a contest that almost no had on their radar. Assini is trying again, and this time he may be able to attract actual money and outside support. But it's not going to be easy to win in a presidential year: Obama won this Rochester-based seat 59-39 and Slaughter should be better prepared if she runs again. Of course Assini wasn't supposed to get close last time either...
10:11 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ND-Gov, Sen: Speculation has been swirling for a while that Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp will run for governor in 2016 instead of re-election in 2018 and on Monday she did nothing to quell it. When asked about her gubernatorial interests she said "the proof is in the past," referring to her 2000 campaign. Heitkamp also called being governor "the greatest honor that you can have from the people of North Dakota," which isn't exactly a sign that she's happy in Washington. Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple has been coy about his 2016 plans, and Heitkamp would probably be even more interested in the governorship if he called it quits.
10:28 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Sen: Last cycle Republican Rep. John Fleming thought about taking on then-Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, but differed to the eventual winner Bill Cassidy. Cassidy had spent years laying the groundwork for his bid, and by the time Fleming wanted to run it was too late. This time, Fleming is trying to make sure that he isn't pushed out by someone else.
Last month the congressman made it clear that he wants Sen. David Vitter to appoint him to his seat if Vitter wins the governorship this year. On Tuesday Fleming declared that he would "absolutely will run if Sen. Vitter is elected governor." Fleming made it clear he would run in 2016 even if he weren't appointed, though it's hard to say if he actually would give up his safe House seat to challenge Vitter's chosen successor or if this is just bluster. In any case, you can't say Fleming is being subtle.
10:48 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-???: It looks like we haven't heard the last from Rob Maness. The tea partying veteran took 14 percent in the 2014 Senate jungle primary, not incredible but not nothing. Since then he's founded Gator PAC, and as Andrea Drusch of the National Journal tells us, some prominent Republicans are lending him a hand. Sen. Bill Cassidy, whom Maness tried to beat in 2014, is one of the PAC's supporters, as is Sen. and gubernatorial frontrunner David Vitter.
They aren't helping the former gadfly to be nice: Maness has a lot of pull with the type of conservative voters that Vitter needs in his corner. Maness hasn't endorsed anyone yet, but he admits he's likely to back Vitter. Maness himself hasn't ruled out another campaign of his own, though it's unclear where he'd run. There has been talk of Maness taking on fellow Republican and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise in the 1st District. However, Maness came to Scalise's aid during his recent high-profile controversy and it doesn't sound like he's gunning for him now.
11:02 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NY-11: Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan is the all-but-official Republican nominee, but it may take a lot longer for Team Blue to select their candidate. Staten Island Democratic Chair John Gulino will hold a party convention to decide who the county party will back (there are no party primaries in New York special elections). Right now Assemblyman Michael Cusick looks like the frontrunner but nothing is assured, and no one has officially declared their candidacy yet. Other potential candidates include former Rep. Michael McMahon, Assemblyman William Colton, Councilman Vincent Gentile, and Middle Class Action Project co-founder Robert Holst.
On paper this upcoming special election should be very competitive. Obama won 52-47 here in 2012, and McCain carried the seat 51-48 four years earlier. However, Alexis Levinson of Roll Call reports that national Democrats are not feeling good about their chances. New York City Mayor Bill DeBlasio is very unpopular on Staten Island and that will likely drag the party's nominee down. It doesn't help that Democratic turnout tends to disproportionally drop in special elections. The DCCC is looking at targeting the seat, but knows it's not going to be an easy pickup.
11:07 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: Republican Sen. David Vitter is many things, but he isn't cash-strapped. His gubernatorial campaign reported raising $4 million throughout 2014, and it has $3.5 million on hand. His allied PAC The Fund for Louisiana’s Future also has more than $3 million on hand. Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle recently reported having $1.5 million on hand though he only got into the race in October; Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, another Republican, has not announced his totals yet.
11:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: On the GOP side, Assemblyman Rocky Chávez's name has been circulating for a while, and on Tuesday he confirmed his interest. Chávez also says that the state party approached him to run which is a pretty big surprise: I wasn't sure that California even had a state Republican Party anymore! As a Hispanic veteran Chávez does have a good profile, though jumping from the Assembly to the U.S. Senate is almost certainly a few fridges too far.
11:45 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: Pew Research recently took an in-depth look at the relationship between financial security and voting behavior. Unsurprisingly, the more financially unstable you are, the less likely you are to vote, to be politically engaged, or even to be registered to vote. David Jarman digs deeper into the underlying data, and offers some potential solutions for attacking the structural problems that cause this gap.
12:30 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Democratic Rep. Loretta Sanchez isn't going along with the DSCC's plan so far. Shortly after Harris made her campaign official, Sanchez released a statement reiterating that she is "seriously considering" a run. Sanchez has been looking at higher office for a long time and was interested in a 2010 gubernatorial bid before it became clear that Jerry Brown had the nomination locked up.
The congresswoman has been seeking endorsements and securing financial commitments, and she seems very serious about seeking a promotion this cycle. Sanchez is a member of what's left of the Blue Dog Coalition and would definitely be a far less dependable progressive vote than Boxer.
12:57 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Via dreaminonempty, we also have a visual guide to which Democrats are running, which aren't, and who's still deciding.
Click to enlarge.
1:11 PM PT (David Jarman): Caucuses: If you've been following politics for a long time, you might remember when the Republican Study Committee was the fringe right-wing caucus within the larger House Republican caucus, one that most members didn't want to be associated with. If you need an example of how the tea party ouroboros coils tighter and tighter as it devours itself, though, now the most extreme members of the Republican Study Committee are ditching it because it's gotten too mainstream. The core 37 members who'll be forming the new, as yet unnamed, group (I'd recommend calling it the Study Committee of Republicans, in tribute to the Judean People's Front and People's Front of Judea) include Jim Jordan, Mick Mulvaney, Justin Amash, and Scott Garrett.
As funny as the purity-within-purity may be, it actually makes sense, to the extent that the RSC became a victim of its own success, expanding to the point that the vast majority of Republican House members were also RSC members, making it indistinguishable from the larger caucus. National Journal has a helpful graphic, showing how in 1995 only 15 of 218 House Republicans were member, but it grew rapidly each term. The first year the RSC was a majority of the House Rs was 2007 (108 of 203), after many moderates got wiped out in the 2006 wave, but most of the gains in 2010 were RSC types, to the extent that 171 of 234 GOPers were RSC members last term.
1:16 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Politico's Alex Isenstadt also has some great back story on Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who ruled out a bid on Monday. Throughout their careers Newsom and Harris have been careful to avoid butting heads. The two share plenty of consultants and donors, and this cycle especially they were under pressure not to run against one another.
It's been widely if unofficially understood that one of them would run for Senate in 2016 and the other would go for the governorship two years later, but until this week there was no agreement which one would seek either office. Both preferred the governorship but were open to the Senate. On Sunday night Newsom made the decision to run for governor and once he made his announcement, Harris was all-but-committed to the Senate race.
1:31 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Special Elections: Johnny Longtorso on tonight's events:
Texas HD-13: This district located west of Houston is the seat vacated by Republican Lois Kolkhorst, who herself was elected to the state Senate in a special election last month. There are four candidates running, including one Democrat, Army veteran Cecil Webster, and three Republicans: geologist Becky Berger, Austin County Judge Carolyn Cerny Bilski, and attorney Leighton Schubert. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will go to a runoff. The district is heavily Republican, having went 76-23 Romney in 2012.
Virginia HD-74: This has been a sordid affair. Last year, Democrat Joe Morrissey was indicted on charges of having sex with an underage girl. He eventually entered an Alford plea to a misdemeanor charge, went to jail (though he was being allowed to continue his job as a Delegate through a work-release program), and after pressure from all sides, resigned his seat. However, he immediately jumped into the special election, first as a Democrat, then as an independent.
Democrats have nominated Kevin Sullivan, the vice chair of the Charles City County Democratic Committee and a union official, while Republicans have nominated teacher Matt Walton. The district is heavily Democratic, having given 74 percent of the vote to Mark Warner in 2014 and Barack Obama in 2012 and 71 percent to Terry McAuliffe in 2013, so there's little chance of the three-way race leading to a Republican pickup, but it's still possible that Morrissey reclaims his seat, especially since Sullivan's base in Charles City County only accounts for about a tenth of the district (it's mostly in Henrico).
1:37 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Allies of Villaraigosa and Steyer also confirmed that both men are still considering the race even after Harris' announcement. Villaraigosa did not offer a timeline for when he'll decide but Steyer will reportedly make up his mind by the end of the week.
1:39 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: Steyer himself also publicly expressed interest in the seat for the first time on Tuesday, though it's been clear since Boxer retired that he's been thinking about a run.