From the National Prediction Center -
THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAJOR POPULATION AREAS FROM EASTERN NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BOSTON AREA AND ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. IN THESE AREAS...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL COMBINE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH...TO CREATE LIFE-THREATENING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 75 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MANY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE AND TRAVEL WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. HIGH WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES...LEADING TO POWER OUTAGES. COASTAL
FLOODING AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION ARE ALSO EXPECTED. TIDAL INCREASES MAY CAUSE FLOODING AND DAMAGE TO VULNERABLE ROADS AND STRUCTURES.
SNOW AND WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 18 TO 30 INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO DOWN
EAST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. FARTHER WEST...CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS SEVERE...BUT 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN
VERMONT.
From Connecticut NWS -
Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD INTO TUESDAY...
CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-270430-
O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150128T0500Z
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
328 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
NIGHT...
* LOCATIONS...NEW HAVEN...MIDDLESEX...NEW LONDON AND SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD COUNTIES IN CONNECTICUT. HUDSON...EASTERN BERGEN...
EASTERN ESSEX AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND
(STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...SUFFOLK...QUEENS AND
NASSAU COUNTIES IN NEW YORK.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
* ACCUMULATIONS...20 TO 30 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT.
* SNOWFALL RATES...2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN LONG ISLAND.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 20S.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. MANY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.
In other words, this storm could go down as the largest on record.
I lived through the Blizzard of 1978. Reading that this storm could be even larger is needless to say, alarming.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in New York City is calling the potential for epic snowfall “historic,” while the Boston office says the incoming storm is a “textbook case for a major winter storm/blizzard.” Three-day snow totals could reach 24–36 inches in each city—good enough to rival the biggest Northeast snowstorms on record. This week’s storm has the makings of a record-breaker in New York City. Since 1869, the biggest single storm on record was 26.9 inches in 2006.
That kind of forecast is jaw-dropping, even for the most jaded meteorological aficionado. Blizzard warnings have been posted from coastal New Jersey to Maine, including New York City and Boston. “Blizzard” is actually a technical meteorological term that requires near-zero visibilities and sustained winds or frequent gusts exceeding 35 mph for at least three consecutive hours. These criteria are typically met in the Northeast only once every few years. The Boston NWS office warns “travel may become impossible and life-threatening.” If the storm comes as forecast, it would be enough to temporarily cripple the region....
People need to be home and to have taken the appropriate precautions.
The time window for getting anywhere is rapidly closing.
States of Emergency have been declared across the Northeast. The NYC subway is only doing limited runs and will close at 11pm this evening, the first time it has ever done so due to a snow storm. Over 8,000 flights have already been cancelled. Total driving bans will begin tonight in New York City, and across the states of New York and Connecticut.
In other words, plan on staying put because no one will be going anywhere.
The fabled theaters on Broadway have gone dark, cancelling performances.
And the storm has just begun.
Obviously, I'm not weatherdude or FishOutofWater. I can't do what they do so well in bringing their in-depth knowledge to the table.
What I can do is ask that everyone stay safe and to keep checking in as the storm progresses.
The next 36 hours or so are going to be very long ones for over 58 million people. Keep us in your good thoughts, ok?
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