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IL-18: While state Sen. Darin LaHood is so far the only credible candidate in this special election, other Republicans are considering a bid in this conservative seat. Ed Brady, the brother of 2010 gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady,
sounds very interested, saying, "this just seems to be the right time." Ed runs a homebuilding company so he could conceivably self-fund, but the family business has
earned its share of
bad headlines. State Rep. Dan Brady (no relation) is also thinking about it.
Two other Republicans are publicly considering. State Rep. Mike Unes quickly acknowledged his interest on Tuesday, and former state Rep. Jil Tracy is also taking a look at this seat. Tracy was Kirk Dillard's running mate during his 2014 gubernatorial bid, and she is capable of self-funding a campaign. State Rep. Tom Demmer has also been mentioned, but he doesn't appear to have said anything about his intentions. (Jeff Singer)
• NV-04: On Wednesday, former Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford announced he wouldn't seek a rematch with Republican incumbent Cresent Hardy. But Team Blue has a good bench in this 54-44 Obama seat in suburban Las Vegas, so they shouldn't have a hard time finding a candidate. Indeed, former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores quickly announced that she is "seriously considering" this race. Flores' rising star status dimmed a bit after her 59-34 loss in the 2014 lieutenant governor contest. However, Flores' poor performance may have been due to turnout factors that were beyond her control than because of anything she did wrong.
Alexis Levinson of Roll Call also gives us a few other potential Democratic candidates. One familiar name is state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, an ally of Harry Reid who ran for NV-01 in 2012, but dropped out after he failed to gain traction against Dina Titus. We also have state Sen. Pat Spearman, Communities in Schools of Nevada Board President Susie Lee, North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee (who lost his Senate seat to Spearman in a 2012 primary), and Las Vegas Councilor Ricki Barlow. We won't see a comeback from 2012 Senate nominee and former Rep. Shelley Berkley though: She quickly told Roll Call that she's not considering this contest. (Jeff Singer)
• Chicago Mayor: Mayor Rahm Emanuel received some good news on Wednesday, when a We Ask America poll gave him a 51-36 lead over Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garica. This is the third recent poll to show the mayor with a double-digit lead. (Jeff Singer)
9:14 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: On Thursday, EMILY's List announced on Thursday that they would endorse Rep. Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary. The move comes a few days after Buzzfeed reported that EMILY was trying to convince Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake to run, and was leaning toward backing her over Edwards. While it's possible that Edwards just won them over, this move indicates that Rawlings-Blake will stay out of the contest after all. Edwards starts out with a financial disadvantage against fellow Rep. Chris Van Hollen, and EMILY's support should give her some very useful outside support.
So far, Van Hollen is Edwards' only primary opponent. However, Reps. Dutch Ruppersberger, John Delaney, and Elijah Cummings all reaffirmed in recent days that they still are very interested in running. If Rawlings-Blake stays out, that could give Cummings more incentive to run: Both are well-known African Americans from Baltimore, and they would likely cost each other votes if they both entered the primary.
9:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: Former Louisville Councilor Hal Heiner is out with yet another spot ahead of the May 19 Republican primary. There's (say it with me now) no word on the size of the buy, but Joseph Gerth of the Courier-Journal reports that Heiner's already spent $1 million on ads, so we should assume there's some juice behind this one too. Heiner's new commercial features him boringly talking about job growth, with him declaring that he's "not a politician." I'm pretty sure that if you're appearing in ads asking people to elect you governor you are by definition a politician, but what do I know.
9:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Nashville Mayor: Real estate titan Bill Freeman, who is also a former state Democratic Party treasurer, is the latest contender to go on the air ahead of theAug. 6 non-partisan primary. Freeman's minute-long ad stars the candidate highlighting his local roots and business background. The spot is currently running for only $40,000, but Freeman is capable of self-funding a whole lot more.
9:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-Sen: On Thursday, EMILY's List threw it's support behind state Attorney General Kamala Harris, who is still the only Democrat in the race. It's actually kind of surprising that it took them this long.
9:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MI-01: Once upon a time, Dan Benishek was a conservative outsider who could effortlessly promise to only serve three terms in the House if he ever got elected. But now that Rep. Benishek has reached that magical term number three, he's realizing that he might not want to leave so soon. After all, think of all the stuff he'd need to move! Does he really want to pack up all those boxes, and carry his TV down three flights of stairs? And if he leaves DC, he'll need to return Aaron Schock's Downton Abbey DVDs. Benishek has been very quiet about his 2016 plans, perhaps hoping that no one would remember his original pledge. But his office finally addressed the matter... only to offer a vague "[a]ny decision regarding his political future will be made in due time."
Democrats are planning to contest this northern Michigan seat no matter what Benishek does. 2012 nominee Jerry Cannon recently expressed interest in trying again, and state Rep. Scott Dianda is reportedly mulling a run. State party chair Lon Johnson has ruled out campaigning for this seat himself, though he recently said that he hopes Cannon tries again.
10:56 AM PT (David Jarman): WV-Gov: The first Democratic candidate to announce for the 2016 West Virginia gubernatorial race is in: it's state Sen. (and former Senate president, currently minority leader) Jeff Kessler, who filed an exploratory committee on Thursday. Kessler ran for Governor before, in the crowded Dem primary in the 2011 special election, where he finished fifth (Democratic Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin won that special election and was re-elected in 2012; he's termed out in 2016).
It remains to be seen whether the West Virginia Dems' heavyweight, Joe Manchin, decides to switch back from the Senate and return to the state house. Manchin says he'll announce his intentions in the "coming months." In a Kessler vs. Manchin primary, Kessler, who's labor-friendly and recently critiqued Tomblin for "not exhibit[ing] bold leadership," would probably run to Manchin's left.
The Charleston Daily Mail's article does some further Great Mentioning, posing U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin (the cousin of appointed ex-Sen. Carte Goodwin) as another potential Democratic candidate. It also mentions three Republicans as possibilities, who've all made some public statements about considering the race: new Senate president Bill Cole, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and Rep. David McKinley (who actually ran for Governor in 1996, but lost the GOP primary to Cecil Underwood).
11:08 AM PT (David Jarman): FL-Sen: There's no shortage of well-known Republicans interested in the Senate seat that's likely to be vacated by Marco Rubio. Two more of them responded on Thursday to questions about their interest in the race; former state House speaker Will Weatherford said that it was "too soon to make a decision," but didn't deny interest, while Rep. Vern Buchanan says he's going to "take a look at it." They join state CFO Jeff Atwater, Lt. Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantara, and Rep. Ron DeSantis in the "considering" pile.
Buchanan is a particularly interesting possibility, because he's personally wealthy (he owes a number of car dealerships) and would be able to self-fund ... perhaps not to the same extent as, say, Rick Scott, but at least enough to put a large operation in place quickly. Buchanan, on the other hand, has some previous black clouds hanging over him, with various lawsuits and ethics investigations regarding shady campaign finance practices, centered on those same auto dealerships. Those allegations appear to have petered out in recent years without ramifications, but opposition research by both primary and general election opponents is likely to bring them back to front and center.
1:10 PM PT (David Jarman): Philly mayor: Former city councilor Jim Kenney is considered labor's candidate in the Democratic primary field, and he got another key union endorsement on Thursday. He got the backing of Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 5, which represents police and corrections officer within the city of Philadelphia.
1:45 PM PT (David Jarman): NV-04: Further Roll Call updates as Thursday unfolded included a confirmation of interest from state Sen. Ruben Kihuen (an ally of Harry Reid, who briefly contested the open NV-01 primary in 2012 against Dina Titus before dropping out), who says he'll be "discussing" the race with family members and the DCCC. They also added a new name to the conversation: state Sen. Kelvin Atkinson, who said he's "considering" and will make a decision after the legislative session is over.
2:11 PM PT (Jeff Singer): President-by-LD: The 2010 Republican landslide could not have come at a worse time for Team Blue. With new Republican state governments in place, the GOP had a free hand to draw the new congressional and state legislative maps to protect and expand their majorities.
In a new piece, we utilize our data calculating the results of the 2012 presidential election according to every congressional and legislative district in the nation to take a look at how gerrymandered each state is. The strongest Republican map is in the Louisiana state House, where the median seat voted for Romney 68-31, about 20 points to the right of the state. The Democrats' best map is for the Colorado state House, where the median seat is about 8 points to the left of the state. Click through for more.