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7:44 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-06: Democrats have been looking to target Republican incumbent Mike Coffman in his competitive suburban Denver seat, and they got their candidate on Tuesday. State Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll, whom the DCCC has been working to recruit, announced that she'll jump in the race.
President Obama won this district, which includes Aurora and Centennial, by a 52-47 margin, but Coffman has proven to be tough to dislodge. The incumbent turned back an underfunded challenge from then-state Rep. Joe Miklosi 48-46 in 2012, and decisively beat ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff 52-43 during last year's GOP wave. Coffman raised plenty of money last time and he'll have plenty of outside support against Carroll.
However, while both parties acknowledge that Coffman is a strong candidate (the GOP unsuccessfully tried to recruit him to run for Senate this cycle), he occasionally lets his mouth do his thinking for him. Back in 2012, Coffman questioned whether Obama was born in the United States, and he recently made some strange wisecracks about ISIS running the VA. Coffman kept his worst nature in check last year, but Democrats will be looking for anything they can exploit.
Unlike the Denver-based Miklosi and Romanoff, Carroll is actually from the district, so Coffman won't be able to use the dreaded carpetbagger label against her. Carroll is also a respected fundraiser who might have what it takes to go toe-to-toe with the congressman. But the GOP thinks they can gain some ground by hitting Carroll's voting record in the legislature. Carroll opposed a measure aimed at toughening sanctions on online child predators and voted for a tax increase. Coffman didn't hesitate to attack Miklosi over his opposition to the former bill, and he's unlikely to pull any punches this time either.
Carroll already has the support of EMILY's List and it doesn't look like she'll face any credible primary opposition. Centennial Councilor Rebecca McClellan was touted as a backup option if Carroll declined, but she probably won't go for it now; ex-state Rep. Ed Caso talked about running a few months ago but never took any serious steps towards forming a campaign. But beating Coffman isn't going to be easy, and both parties are expected to fight hard for this district. The 2014 contest was one of the most expensive in the nation, and this one may be even more intense.
8:29 AM PT (Jeff Singer): PA-Sen: National Democrats haven't been doing much to hide how little they want 2010 nominee Joe Sestak to be their standard bearer again. There's a real fear that Sestak will run an undisciplined and amateurish campaign and cost Team Blue its chance to unseat Republican incumbent Pat Toomey. But so far, no one has stepped up to challenge Sestak in the primary besides Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, who suspended his campaign on Monday after the FBI searched his city hall. And Politico's Manu Raju reports that outgoing Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who remains a powerful force in Democratic politics, may be willing to bite the bullet and accept Sestak.
Reid met with Team Sestak last month and told them that if the candidate hires more staff and puts more effort into his fundraising, national Democrats "would seriously consider throwing its weight behind him." That's not exactly a firm commitment, but it's a huge change from the "Sestak has cooties!" approach we've seen so far. Reid was one of a few high-profile Democrats to unsuccessfully attempt to recruit Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro for this seat, and it would definitely matter if he accepted Sestak, even if only begrudgingly. One Democrat in attendance says the meeting went well, but we'll see what happens.
Still, anti-Sestak Democrats haven't quite given up hope of finding someone else. There's been some speculation that Katie McGinty, who serves as chief of staff to Gov. Tom Wolf, might be interested. McGinty hasn't said anything but the Philadelphia Inquirer tells us that she has spoken to national Democrats about a possible bid. However, there's no word on whether McGinty is actually interested or if D.C. Democrats are making any real effort to recruit her.
8:52 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-Sen: The GOP picked up a candidate against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet on Monday, but he's definitely going to have some things to prove. Greg Lopez, a former director of the Colorado Small Business Administration, joins unheralded El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn in the contest. The national GOP may give him a look if Lopez can raise real money from his business connections, but they'll continue their search for a tougher candidate otherwise. So far, Team Red hasn't had much luck finding a formidable contender to face Bennet, with their best options all looking reluctant to go for it.
9:06 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-Sen: You usually don't see a $1 million ad buy this early in the campaign season, but the Natural Resources Defense Council is shelling that out against GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. Their spot accuses Kirk of making it easier for power plants to pollute the air. Until recently, Kirk had a good relationship with environmental groups, but he may have permanently alienated them after he cast the deciding vote against an amendment that would have restored critical EPA funding. Maybe the NRDC hopes that this ad campaign will bring Kirk back into the fold, but we can probably expect a lot more commercials like this as the campaign heats up.
9:25 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Baltimore Mayor: Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake's handling of the city's spring riots has left her vulnerable to a challenge in next April's Democratic primary, and one familiar name is aiming for a comeback. Sheila Dixon, who served as mayor from 2007 to 2010, announced that she'll challenge Rawlings-Blake last week. However, Dixon has her own liabilities: She resigned after she was convicted of stealing gift cards that were supposed to help needy families. Dixon still has her supporters, but plenty of Charm City residents would rather not have her back.
Dixon is unlikely to be Rawlings-Blake's only foe in the primary, which is tantamount to election in this heavily Democratic city. Plenty of possible contenders haven't ruled out a campaign including Del. Jill Carter; Councilors Nick Mosby, Brandon Scott, and Carl Stokes; state Sen. Catherine Pugh, and City Council President Jack Young. There's no runoff here, so a simple plurality is enough to prevail.
9:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: With about four months to go before the general election, Democrat Jack Conway is releasing his first two spots. The first ad emphasizes Conway's family roots in Western Kentucky (in other words, he wants rural voters to know he's not a just a Louisville libural) and his record as attorney general. The second commercial also talks about his time in office, with him calling for investing in small businesses. There's no word on the size of the buy.
10:07 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Sen: We recently learned that Charles Boustany raised a whooping $700,000 in preparation for a 2016 Senate bid, but fellow GOP congressman John Fleming isn't going to let him outgun him. Fleming's team reports that he brought in $741,000 during the last three months and has $2 million on hand, though an unknown amount of that came from his own wallet. Both Fleming and Boustany represent safely red seats and there's no doubt that they're stepping up their fundraising to prepare for next year's Senate contest.
Republican Sen. David Vitter's seat is up for re-election next year, but he's favored to win this fall's gubernatorial contest. A Gov. Vitter will be able to appoint a successor, but there's no telling if he'll pick someone who intends to seek re-election or just a place holder. Fleming has publicly said that he's running for Senate if Vitter becomes governor whether or not he gets the appointment, and Boustany recently made the same pledge to his donors. State Treasurer John Kennedy and 2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness are also eyeing this seat.
10:20 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN?: Scott Brown has never had much of a problem lending his services to shady companies. In between his tenure as a Massachusetts Republican senator and his 2014 Senate run in New Hampshire, Brown served as a senior advisor for Global Digital Solutions, a shady group that had no revenue or products, just millions in stock. Brown now hawks for AdvoCare, a diet pill company that, for the low low price of $179, may send you straight to the ER.
10:32 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Indianapolis Mayor: This fall's duel between Democrat Joe Hogsett and Republican Chuck Brewer hasn't looked particularly exciting, but things may be about to get a bit more interesting. A mysterious group has collected enough signatures to put Rev. Charles Harrison, a very prominent local minster, on the ballot as an independent. Harrison says he has nothing to do with this group, but is considering going for it, saying he's 50-50 on the idea. Harrison has until July 15 to decide.
While Hogsett should remain the frontrunner if Harrison jumps in, there's little doubt that he'd lose some Democratic voters (which is probably what Harrison's anonymous supporters are counting on). Harrison has made a name for himself speaking about issues like crime and poverty, and he promises to emphasize gun violence if he runs.
10:41 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WATN?: Russ Feingold recently stepped down as U.S. special envoy to the African Great Lakes to run for Senate, and Secretary of State John Kerry has now chosen his successor: ex-Rep. Tom Perriello. Perriello was one of 2008's surprise Democratic winners, and he only narrowly lost his conservative Virginia House seat during the 2010 GOP wave. Perriello has been mentioned as a possible statewide contender in the Old Dominion over the years but has never gone for it, though he's young enough to give elected office another shot somewhere down the line.
10:51 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC Redistricting: North Carolina's GOP legislature has never been shy about securing Republican power throughout the state. They quickly made the state House and Senate essentially unwinnable for Democrats, and they've gerrymandered county boards in blue-leaning areas. But they went even further last week, redrawing Greensboro's city council districts to make them far more Republican-friendly. Stephen Wolf has more about what went down and how the legislature's actions have impacted Tar Heel State politics.
11:04 AM PT (Jeff Singer): TX-AG: Good news Pennsylvania Democrats: your attorney general isn't the only one in legal trouble! Special prosecutors have asked a Collin County grand jury to indict Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican who was elected last year. The investigation started after it emerged that Paxton failed to register as an investment advisor, but illegally solicited clients for a friend's firm anyway. This story isn't new: Lone Star State Republicans knew that Paxton was fined $1,000 for his actions, but they overwhelmingly picked him over another state legislator in the runoff. But things have gotten worse for Paxton, with the prosecutors accusing him of securities fraud. The maximum punishment for a first degree conviction is life in prison.
11:53 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-08: Wealthy businessman Josh Rales, who ran for the Senate back in 2006, was reportedly considering a campaign for this safely blue district. However, Rales himself emailed us to say that he's focusing on private foundation work and won't run, and he calls the earlier rumors about his interest "unfounded." Six notable Democrats are currently seeking this seat.
12:55 PM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Sen: Oh yikes. Eric Holcomb, the former chief of staff to retiring Sen. Dan Coats and a former state Republican Party chair, announced that he had raised $200,000 during the last three months, a pretty pathetic haul for a Senate campaign. Holcomb has minimal name recognition with primary voters, and he can't fix that without money. But unless Holcomb a personal fortune we don't know about or he has some wealthy friends who will fund a super PAC for him, $200,000 just isn't going to cut it.
Holcomb's financial problems are particularly good news for Rep. Todd Young, who is expected to jump in soon. Young is another establishment-flavored Republican, and he could have lost support to Holcomb and given tea party friendly Rep. Marlin Stutzman a bigger opening in the primary. But if Holcomb remains obscure by the time next year's contest rolls around, Young will be in good shape to vacuum up his would-be supporters. For his part, Young raised $1 million in the last three months even though he hasn't announced his 2016 plans, while Stutzman has not unveiled his totals yet.
1:05 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-Gov: There are plenty of Granite State Democrats who could run for this seat if Maggie Hassan challenges GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte next year. While Executive Councilors Colin Van Ostern and Chris Pappas are frequently mentioned, party operatives give the National Journal some other possibilities.
Some potential candidates include ex-state House Speaker Terie Norelli, state Sen. Donna Soucy, and Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, who is Sen. Jeanne Shaheen's daughter. Some of these people could also presumably run for Senate if Hassan passes, though few relish the prospect of facing the well-funded Ayotte. On the GOP side, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu says he's interested in a gubernatorial bid regardless of what Hassan does, though others could scout out a bid if the popular governor leaves.
1:27 PM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-02: On Tuesday, Democratic state Rep. Victoria Steele announced that she will challenge freshman Republican Martha McSally in this Tucson-area seat. McSally only won her 2014 race by 167 votes during the GOP wave, and this 50-48 Romney district is likely to be a major target for Team Blue next year. But McSally is a formidable fundraiser, and she'll have plenty of support from national Republicans.
For her part, Steele attracted national attention in March during her testimony against an anti-abortion bill when she revealed that she had been sexually abused as a child. Steele decried McSally's support for a 20-week abortion ban last month, and this issue is likely to play a big role in the campaign. Ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz has also expressed interest in taking on McSally and businesswoman Nan Walden has been mentioned, though she has yet to say anything.
1:44 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-03: Former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin lost his bid to unseat Rep. Walter Jones by a pretty close 51-45 margin in last year's GOP primary, and he's back for another try.
Jones has been on the outs with the GOP establishment for years over his opposition to the Iraq War. The congressman originally backed the invasion (and even pushed for french fries to be renamed freedom fries), but he eventually joined Democrats in loudly denouncing the conflict. Jones more recently voted for banking reform and against John Boehner, and outside groups were happy to spend $1 million against him last time.
Jones was able to get some traction last time by reminding voters that Griffin had only moved back to North Carolina to run for Congress, but that attack may matter less now that Griffin's spent longer in the state. Little-known veteran Phil Law is also running and while he's unlikely to get many votes, he could split the anti-Jones bloc enough to secure the incumbent another term. Romney carried this coastal seat 58-41, so the eventual primary winner shouldn't have much trouble in November.
1:55 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Nashville Mayor: Early voting begins next week for the Aug. 6 non-partisan primary, and another campaign has released an internal poll. This Anzalone Liszt Grove Research survey for Councilor Megan Barry shows real estate tycoon Bill Freeman in first place, which is what most polling has shown here. However, they find a tight contest for the second place runoff spot:
• Real estate executive Bill Freeman: 21
• Councilor Megan Barry: 16
• Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry: 13
• Former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox: 11
• Businesswoman Linda Eskind Rebrovick: 9
• Attorney Charles Robert Bone: 8
• Charter school founder Jeremy Kane: 3
No independent pollster has released anything here, but between Freeman's good numbers in his opponents surveys and
his labor support, it's hard to conclude that he's not in a good position to advance to the runoff.
2:07 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WI-07: Republican Sean Duffy has looked secure ever since he defeated former Democratic state Sen. Pat Kreitlow 56-44 in 2012, but Team Blue has made noises about putting this Romney 51-48 seat back into play. Kirk Bangstad, who has worked for several tech companies, kicked off a bid this week, and he does have an interesting profile. Bangstad made local news last year after he used his skills as an opera singer to raise money for lung cancer research after his wife was diagnosed. Bangstad has worked in Wisconsin politics before so he may have some good connections, but he's going to need to work hard if he wants to give Duffy a real race.
2:19 PM PT (Jeff Singer): 2Q Fundraising:
• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R-inc): $2 million raised, $2.75 million cash-on-hand
• CA-21: David Valadao (R-inc): $330,000 raised, $615,000 cash-on-hand
• CA-24: Salud Carbajal (D): $600,000 raised; Helene Schneider (D): $225,000 raised
• FL-18: Rick Kozell (R): $100,000 raised (in three weeks)
• IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): $313,000 raised, $565,000 cash-on-hand
• IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $451,000 raised, $814,000 cash-on-hand
• MD-08: Jamie Raskin (D): $553,000 raised, $480,000 cash-on-hand