Our project to calculate statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts returns to Virginia, which was the site of an unexpectedly tight Senate race last year. We're pleased to present the results of last year's contest between Democratic incumbent Mark Warner and Republican Ed Gillespie broken down according to state House, state Senate, and congressional district lines.
In addition, Stephen Wolf has created a special interactive map of Virginia's hotly contested state Senate above (a larger version is here). Each seat is mapped out and color-coded according to 2014's U.S. Senate winner and the party that holds each district in the state Senate: Dark blue seats show districts held by Democrats and won by Warner, while dark red seats show Republican districts won by Gillespie. Light red seats are also held by Republicans but carried by Warner, though there's only one of those, SD-10. (Gillespie did not win any seats held by Democratic legislators.)
For the second year in a row, Old Dominion polls overestimated Team Blue's margin of victory, though this time much more shockingly so. Warner turned back Gillespie 49-48, not much different than Gov. Terry McAuliffe's 48-45 win against Ken Cuccinelli in 2013. Warner carried 42 of the 100 seats in the state House, two fewer than McAuliffe. The two McAuliffe-Gillespie seats are both held by Republicans: HD-13 by ultra-conservative Del. Bob Marshall, and HD-31 by Del. Scott Lingamfelter. The entire state House is up this fall, and while Team Blue is hoping that they can dig themselves out of the 67-32 superminority they're stuck in, any chance at recapturing the chamber is a long way off.
The state Senate is another story. The GOP holds a bare 21-19 majority and Team Blue only needs to net one seat to take control because Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would break ties for the Democrats. But both parties have plenty of targets, and Democrats aren't going to have an easy time turning out their base in a year where there are no statewide races on the ballot.
Warner and McAuliffe carried the same 20 state Senate seats, so there is a path to victory—one that runs through the previously mentioned 10th District, which retiring GOP state Sen. John Watkins is leaving open. Obama did carry one extra seat, SD-07, held by GOP state Sen. Frank Wagner. This Hampton Roads-area district went for Obama by less than a point, but for Cuccinelli 47-46 and Gillespie 50-47. Democrats will be on the defense elsewhere, though, so there's incredibly little room for error.
On a separate matter, a federal court recently ordered the state legislature to draw a new congressional map, ruling that Republicans illegally packed too many African Americans into the safely blue 3rd District. That's good news for Democrats, since the GOP currently holds eight of the commonwealth's 11 seats. Warner carried only the three Democratic-held districts, narrowly losing Scott Rigell's VA-02 by a 49-48 margin. Obama had carried the 2nd District 50-49, while McAuliffe took it 47-46.
You can find our complete results for all states here, and be sure to check out Wolf's other interactive maps here.