Senate candidate David Jolly
Until a few weeks ago, Republican Rep. David Jolly was pretty lukewarm about running to succeed departing Sen. Marco Rubio. But Jolly quickly changed his tune after the Florida Supreme Court ordered the state legislature to redraw his 13th District to
take in several heavily Democratic areas, and he announced on Monday that
he'll run for the Senate. Tea partying Rep. Ron DeSantis, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox are already in the GOP primary, and Rep. Jeff Miller is likely to join them soon; ex-state Attorney General Bill McCollum is
also eyeing the race.
Jolly won his seat in a closely fought 2014 special election, and he's using his victory to argue that he has what it takes to win in swingy Florida. But Jolly has a reputation as a moderate: He's one of the few members of the GOP caucus to support same-sex marriage, and he voted against a Republican plan to change Medicare. Jolly is naturally casting himself as "a conservative who has gotten results," but his primary opponents are going to use very different language to describe him.
Jolly's positions may hold him back in the primary, but he could slip through with a plurality if his opponents do enough damage to one another. Jolly is also the only GOP candidate to have a base in the voter-rich Tampa Bay area, which could give him a boost. In any case, this crowded primary will be nothing but fascinating to watch. The winner will face either Rep. Patrick Murphy, who is the favorite of national Democrats, or fellow Rep. Alan Grayson.