I don't get all the stuff and nonsense about the "Trump Phenomenon". After all, it's not like he's Justin Bieber or something, flashing out of nowhere to become an overnight sensation. He's been roaming the halls of the Republican mausoleum for more than 25 years, like the doomed servant in some Gothic novel castle. A Trump run at some point was inevitable, his monumental ego and delusional feeling of mastering the RNC would allow no other scenario. The fact that it is happening now is a combination of two things, several years of tragic miscalculation and terrible decisions by the RNC, and a "perfect storm" candidate field in 2016. Follow me below the cheese doodle for my logic and reasoning.
Donald Trump has been flirting with, or threatening a Presidential run as far back as 1988. He offhandedly but flirtatiously tossed out the idea in several interviews and appearances. But a general lack of name recognition, along with a sitting vice President running on the GOP side meant nothing more than talk. But a funny thing happened on the way to the exit. The thought of a wealthy, successful businessman that could at least partially self fund made the GOP nervous. Trump was assured that he was a valued and critical part of the team. This was like throwing a tiger a raw steak.
Trump did not seriously threaten a run in either 1992 or 2004. This was simple logic and tactics. One does not primary a sitting President, especially not one who is in trouble. That's the time to circle the wagons, not the firing squad. Besides, he was stuck in the middle of a nasty corporate bankruptcy in 2004, and it was his inaugural season of "The Apprentice", he had plenty on his plate. Although he did continue to bloviate and rattle the sabre of his brilliance and abilities, along with his personal fundraising for them to ensure that the proper ego fluffing came from above to keep him sedated.
In 1996 he was more critical of the GOP candidates and started laying 10 gallon hints, allowing interviewers to be the ones to actually "state" that he might consider a run. But 1996 was Bob Doles year, he had earned it as the elder statesman of the party, and besides, with a booming economy and record low unemployment, Clinton would have had to have been caught with barnyard animals instead of Monica Lewinsky to be defeated.
In every other campaign cycle, the Donald has floated the threat or possibility with varying degrees of insistence and urgency. And with every new threat, the fawning and self induced humiliation of the RNC has increased exponentially. Like with any blackmailer, the freight just keeps going up over time. This has led to the sorry spectacle of candidates and potential candidates slithering off to NYC to kiss the ring and beg for the Trumpal seal of approval, and hopefully a 7 digit check that goes with it. The ultimate humiliation being the one he bestowed on rival business tycoon Mitt Romney, who had the audacity to have never had his company file for bankruptcy! Dragging Romney all the way out to Las Vegas in the middle of a campaign swing to get his endorsement, and thoroughly disgusting Ann Romney by putting his arm around her shoulders after introducing her husband.
But why now? After all those empty threats, why actually pull the pin now? The first is the Frankenstein of the RNC's own making. They have spent so long fawning over and stroking this egomaniac that in his own mind, it is now he who is the driving force in the party, not Reinhard Priebus or the RNC. Why always be the one in the background?
And the second consideration is right in front of us, the 2016 Republican Presidential field. This, according to Republican strategists and pundits is supposed to be the "deepest bench" in history. Really? Let's take a look. Hmmm. You have 4 sitting governors, only one of whom has an above water popularity rating in his home state. You have 2 freshman tea party Senators, and a "stealth" senior Senator from South Carolina who last accomplished anything when Christ was a carpenter, and who's only function these days seems to be to make sure that John McCain is zipped up when they leave the Senate pissoir. A former Senator from PA who got so badly waxed in his re-election bid that he needed a miners helmet to find his vote total, and who's only justification this time around is; "It's my turn this time, I came in second last time, you guys promised!" The rest of the field is too trivial to waste either of our times on.
Look at it from the Donald's point of view. In his eyes, they are all clowns. And why should he sit around and wait for them to come and kiss his ring when he can tell them to kiss his ass instead? Combine this with the realization that with a strong candidate vying to become the first female President in history, barring a complete meltdown in the first 4 years, it will be at least 2024 before a realistic opportunity rolls around again. And by that time, the Republican party will have had to either make the painful decision to purge itself of it's nutcase elements, which just happens to be the Donald's base constituency, or it will be entirely inconsequential by the time 2024 rolls around. If ever there was a time and a place for the Donald to go out in a blaze of glory, it's right here, and right now.
Mon Jul 27, 2015 at 9:47 AM PT: WOW!!! The Community Spotlight?!? For ME?!? For such a newbie, this is both an honor, and humbling. HUGE thanks to all fo0r your kindness and support!!!